Atlantic November Hurricane Outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:01 PM GMT on November 01, 2013

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The tropical Atlantic is quiet, with no threat areas to discuss, and no reliable models predicting development of a tropical cyclone during the coming five days. So, are we all done for 2013? Or will this unusually quiet hurricane season spawn a Tropical Storm Melissa? The large-scale circulation pattern over the first half of November favors upward-moving air and an increased chance of tropical storm development over the Atlantic, due to the current positioning of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days. By mid-November, this pattern will favor sinking air over the tropical Atlantic, making a late-November tropical storm an unlikely proposition. Wind shear has risen to high levels prohibitive for tropical storm formation over the Gulf of Mexico and the waters near the Bahama Islands, and is expected to remain very high through mid-November, according to the latest run of the GFS model. However, wind shear over the Caribbean is likely to be average to below average for the next two weeks, making tropical storm formation possible there. The oceans are certainly warm enough to support development, with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Caribbean 0.2°C (0.37°F) above average, and well above the 26°C (79°F) threshold typically needed to support tropical storm formation (Figure 1.) Dry air--which has dominated the tropical Atlantic during the 2013 hurricane season--will continue to make its presence felt over the Caribbean during portions of the coming two weeks, though, reducing the odds of development. The African Monsoon is quiet this time of year, and we no longer have African waves coming off the coast of Africa that can act as the seeds for formation of a tropical storm in the Caribbean. If we do get a tropical storm, it will probably be in the Western Caribbean, where the tail end of a cold front lingers long enough over warm waters to generate some heavy thunderstorms and acquire a spin. A cold front capable of triggering such a disturbance will arrive over the Western Caribbean November 8 - 9, but the GFS and ECMWF models are not suggesting any development from this front. Taking all these factors into account, I predict that the Atlantic hurricane season of 2013 is over, with just a 20% chance of another named storm this season.


Figure 1. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic on November 1, 2013. The black line marks the 26°C (79°F) isotherm, which is the boundary where tropical storm formation can typically occur. A large portion of the Atlantic is still capable of supporting tropical storm formation, but the Gulf of Mexico is getting marginal.

Climatology of November Atlantic tropical cyclones
Since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995, eleven of the eighteen years (61%) have seen one or more Atlantic named storms form after November 1, for a total of sixteen November/December storms:

2011: Tropical Storm Sean on November 8
2009: Hurricane Ida on November 4
2008: Hurricane Paloma on November 6
2007: Tropical Storm Olga on December 11
2005: the "Greek" storms Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta
2004: Tropical Storm Otto on November 29
2003: Odette and Peter in December
2001: Hurricane Noel on November 5 and Hurricane Olga on November 24
1999: Hurricane Lenny on November 14
1998: Hurricane Nicole on November 24
1996: Hurricane Marco on November 19

Only three of these storms (19%) caused loss of life: Hurricane Ida of 2009, which killed one boater on the Mississippi River; Tropical Storm Odette of 2007, whose floods killed eight people in the Dominican Republic; and Hurricane Lenny of 1999, which killed fifteen people in the Lesser Antilles. "Wrong-way Lenny" was both the deadliest and the strongest November hurricane on record (Category 4, 155 mph winds). There have been only seven major Category 3 or stronger hurricanes in the Atlantic after November 1. Part of the reason for the relatively low loss of life for November storms is that they tend to form from extratropical low pressure systems that get cut off from the jet stream and linger over the warm waters of the subtropical Atlantic. These type of systems typically get their start in the middle Atlantic, far from land, and end up recurving northeastwards out to sea. The most recent November named storm, Tropical Storm Sean of 2011, was an example of this type of storm. However, as I noted in the wake of Hurricane Tomas of November 2010 in my blog post, Deadly late-season Atlantic hurricanes growing more frequent, "It used to be that late-season hurricanes were a relative rarity--in the 140-year period from 1851 - 1990, only 30 hurricanes existed in the Atlantic on or after November 1, an average of one late-season hurricane every five years. Only four major Category 3 or stronger late-season hurricanes occurred in those 140 years, and only three Caribbean hurricanes. But in the past twenty years, late-season hurricanes have become 3.5 times more frequent--there have been fifteen late-season hurricanes, and five of those occurred in the Caribbean. Three of these were major hurricanes, and were the three strongest late-season hurricanes on record". Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is an "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". The recent increase in powerful and deadly November hurricanes would seem to support this conclusion.


Figure 2. The strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic in November, Hurricane Lenny, takes aim at the Lesser Antilles on November 17, 1999. Image credit: NOAA.

Typhoon Krosa takes aim at China
Category 2 Typhoon Krosa is headed towards China's Hainan Island after battering the northern end of Luzon, the main Philippines Island, on Thursday. Krosa hit extreme northeast Luzon near 06 UTC (2 am EDT) on October 31, as a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. No injuries or major damage have been reported so far from the storm. Satellite loops show an impressive system with a large eye and plenty of intense thunderstorms. The typhoon will slowly weaken over the weekend as it encounters higher wind shear and cooler waters, before brushing China's Hainan Island as a tropical storm on Sunday.

The GFS and European models predict that the Philippines will see a new tropical storm or typhoon hit the islands on Friday, November 8.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Krosa taken at 05:05 UTC on November 1, 2013. At the time, Krosa was a Category 1 storm with winds of 85 mph. Image credit: NASA.

TD 18-E in Eastern Pacific will bring heavy rains to Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Depression 18-E has spun up south of Baja, Mexico. Satellite loops show that the depression is poorly organized, but has plenty of intense thunderstorms. Heavy rains from TD 18-E will begin affecting the southern Baja Peninsula and portions of Mainland Mexico to its east on Sunday. The 06Z Friday run of the HWRF model predicted that Mainland Mexico near Manzanillo could see 4 - 8 inches of rain from the system. Moisture from the storm will spread northeastwards into Southwest Texas by Tuesday.

New "Tipping Points" episode, "Arctic Permafrost Peril", airs Saturday at 9 pm EDT/8 pm CDT
“Tipping Points”, a landmark 6-part TV series that began last Saturday on The Weather Channel, airs for the third time on Saturday night, November 2, at 9 pm EDT. The new episode, "Arctic Permafrost Peril", goes on an expedition across Alaska to the North Pole to explore the ticking time bomb of the permafrost melt and the release of tons of carbon dioxide and methane. The series is hosted by polar explorer and climate journalist Bernice Notenboom, the first woman to perform the remarkable triple feat of climbing Mt. Everest and walking to the North and South Poles. In each episode, Notenboom heads off to a far corner of the world to find scientists in the field undertaking vital climate research to try to understand how the climate system is changing and how long we have to make significant changes before we reach a tipping point--a point of no return when our climate system will be changed irreversibly.


Figure 4. "Tipping Points" host Bernice Notenboom watches as scientists take permafrost measurements near the Alaska Pipeline.

I'll have a new post by Monday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 4401
Just remember..just because the word Tropical is removed from a storm doesnt mean a storm cannot be devastating.....look what Sandy did and at the time the Battle of wording was going on..NHC sayin it is no longer tropical...well we see what a Non tropical storm can do huh..we can get a real bad storm anytime of the year
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Quoting 54. bjrabbit:
So, we can't provide a reliable forecast 3 to 6 months out...but we are going to overturn the economy of the whole planet based on the same scientific methodology that gave us these abysmal hurricane forecasts?

Do any of you know what kind of havoc is occurring to Americans living in the traditional coal mining areas NOW in VA and WV...all because of these skewed, hokey forecasts based on bad science?

Moreover, do any of you care? And don't ask me about people living on Tahiti or some island that is "supposed" to be submerged if these hokey forecasts are true? Fact...they are NOT.

The only victims of "Global Warming" are the economic victims that result from this hoax.


AGW models aren't hurricane forcasting models and don't claim to be.

Big coal broke the unions and automated coal extraction through mountain-top removal. They also manipulated their prices out of competative ranges. Plus coal is too dirty to burn on multiple levels, so dirty it led Reagan's people to develop cap and trade for NO2X.

AGW science is empirical, and if you have evidence to the contrary, I see a Nobel prize in your future.
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Published on Jan 7, 2013

As an island nation sitting at sea level in the Indian Ocean, the Maldives is facing the possibility of being wiped out due to rising sea levels. LinkAsia speaks with filmmaker Jon Shenk about his documentary "The Island President", a look at climate change warrior and former president of the Maldives Mohamed Nasheed

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 431 Comments: 131478
GEM is updating... lets see if the storms are still there.... *hopes they are not there so fights about the models fade away...*
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 4401
For Realists

The END
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Quoting 18. TropicalAnalystwx13:
It feels like April...upper 70s with a lot of wind.


The DC area had dawn temps near 70 and dewpoints in the low 60s. Pretty gloppy for Early November but not unheard of. A 60F dewpoint is possible here any time of year but very rare in winter. A weak line
of showers has taken a few degrees off of the dawn temps but I'm not
expecting much cooling till late night and tomorrow.


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So, we can't provide a reliable forecast 3 to 6 months out...but we are going to overturn the economy of the whole planet based on the same scientific methodology that gave us these abysmal hurricane forecasts?

Do any of you know what kind of havoc is occurring to Americans living in the traditional coal mining areas NOW in VA and WV...all because of these skewed, hokey forecasts based on bad science?

Moreover, do any of you care? And don't ask me about people living on Tahiti or some island that is "supposed" to be submerged if these hokey forecasts are true? Fact...they are NOT.

The only victims of "Global Warming" are the economic victims that result from this hoax.
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Quoting 22. barbamz:
Interesting retrospect from BBC's forecaster Miller how he experienced the night and the morning when Jude-Christian hit the UK some days ago:



BBC Weather Presenter's brush with stormy weather
BBC, 1 November 2013 Last updated at 11:57

Nick Miller is an experienced weather forecaster for the BBC, but his credentials were no match for the ferocity of a storm he encountered on the morning of October 28, 2013, while heading home from work.


Some quotes from this article:
...I wasn't the only one not getting any sleep that night. The BBC Weather twitter feed was busy with people giving their own updates on what the storm was doing. Weather enthusiasts had decided to stay up to see the storm come in. ...

... It might sound peculiar for a meteorologist but I was genuinely scared and shocked by the sheer physicality of this storm. It's just an eight minute walk to my house but with plenty of trees being battered and difficulty walking against the wind anyway, I couldn't risk it. My choices of refuge were limited - a flimsy-looking platform shelter, a telephone box or a railway bridge.
So, for the next twenty minutes or so, a very humbled weatherman watched, quite in awe from under a railway bridge, as this destructive force of nature unleashed its power before me. ...


BTW: more windstorms in a row on the same path are predicted to come during the next days. Strength is still a bit uncertain.


I can sympathize. I find meteorology fascinating but am also afraid of what severe weather can do to me and my family. There isn't anything in winter that scares me but exposure to lightning, downbursts, tornadoes, tropical cyclones, flash flooding and areal flooding (which is a slight mid atlantic winter risk also) is a continuous threat in the summer half of the year. I have non power requiring heat which eliminates my biggest winter exposure.


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Quoting 18. TropicalAnalystwx13:
It feels like April...upper 70s with a lot of wind.


Yeah feels like the morning of a severe weather day. Strong warm south winds
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Quoting 49. 47n91w:


I measured 128" inches of snow last winter, just about double average in my area.

FunVortex: you can have it all!

It would be cool to watch the barometer fall that quickly. Although, I had way too much fun (definite sarcasm intended) in what we call up here the "bomb low of 2010" (because it did bomb-out over the western Great Lakes and set record low pressures for MN and WI).

I had just moved into a new house and the horizontal rain being driven by 40 mph sustained winds showed me that the wooden siding was ancient and needed replacing. With that task completed, I wouldn't mind another storm to see how good the contractor did!







I live in Wausau. I remember that storm very well, it blew down trees all over.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2893
"Taking all these factors into account, I predict that the Atlantic hurricane season of 2013 is over, with just a 20% chance of another named storm this season".

JMasters...

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Quoting FunnelVortex:


I wanna see a bomb like that come through here this winter. I'm all for a good blizzard.


I measured 128" inches of snow last winter, just about double average in my area.

FunVortex: you can have it all!

It would be cool to watch the barometer fall that quickly. Although, I had way too much fun (definite sarcasm intended) in what we call up here the "bomb low of 2010" (because it did bomb-out over the western Great Lakes and set record low pressures for MN and WI).

I had just moved into a new house and the horizontal rain being driven by 40 mph sustained winds showed me that the wooden siding was ancient and needed replacing. With that task completed, I wouldn't mind another storm to see how good the contractor did!





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Quoting 37. 47n91w:
Speaking of Great Lakes storms, today marks 22nd anniversary of the middle of the 1991 Halloween snowstorm. While I wasn't in the bulls-eye of the snow, I do remember trick-or-treating in a snowsuit under my costume.

Maps and more information on NWS Duluth's page on this storm (link).




* At the time, the 36.9" of snow that fell at Duluth set the state record for storm total snowfall. That was surpassed in 1994.

* Snow began in Duluth at about 1 PM on October 31st, and did not end until 1 PM on November 3rd, meaning that snow fell continuously on the city for about 72 hours.








It must be Friday. Upon first look at the top image I thought that was an infographic of a blue hand pointing at Duluth. Need...more...sleep....
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Thanks Doc.
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Quoting 562. kmanislander:


October and November can be especially dangerous for the NW Caribbean. The infamous 1932 hurricane killed over 100 people in our sister island of Cayman Brac. Of course, a lot has changed since then and many who went outdoors during the eye and were subsequently swept away by tidal waves would not get caught that way again.

Weather warnings back then consisted largely of watching the sky and a barometer, if you had one. Very primitive and resulting in massive casualties.

My Mom was a child then and recalls walking in neck deep water with her parents and siblings to the central highland called the bluff to escape the sea.
Many were not so fortunate.

On the Northern side of that island there is no reef and the deep water comes right up to the shore.

Other stories like the family who waited in the upstairs of their home and watched a tiger shark swimming in the living room below sends chills up your spine.

The old timers I grew up with on Captiva and the Everglades spoke of many storms..In a much abbreviated form, they were heartwrenching. The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane being one of the worst...The survivors suffered a nightmare hard to describe..
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44. 7544
mother nature just might prove us all a wrong that the season is over stay tuned
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1125 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013

CTZ002>004-MAZ004>007-012>017-RIZ001-002-011630-
WINDHAM-TOLLAND-HARTFORD-SUFFOLK-NORTHERN WORCESTER-EASTERN
NORFOLK-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX COUNTY-WESTERN NORFOLK-EASTERN
ESSEX-SOUTHERN WORCESTER-WESTERN ESSEX-NORTHERN BRISTOL-SOUTHEAST
MIDDLESEX-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE-
1125 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013

...LINE OF STRONG STORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
HARTFORD...WINDHAM... TOLLAND...MIDDLESEX...SUFFOLK...NORFOLK...
WEST CENTRAL PLYMOUTH...ESSEX...WORCESTER...NORTHWESTERN BRISTOL...
WESTERN KENT AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES...

AT 1124 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A LINE OF STRONG STORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM RUTLAND TO
CHARLTON TO NEAR WOODSTOCK TO NEAR MANSFIELD TO NEAR MARLBOROUGH...
AND WAS MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOSTON...WORCESTER...PROVIDENCE...LOWELL...CAMBRI DGE...BROCKTON...
QUINCY...LYNN...NEWTON...CRANSTON...SOMERVILLE... PAWTUCKET...
FRAMINGHAM...WALTHAM...MALDEN...BROOKLINE...MEDFO RD...WEYMOUTH...
REVERE AND PEABODY.

LAT...LON 4197 7212 4245 7199 4275 7079 4256 7080
4250 7089 4251 7082 4246 7094 4242 7091
4244 7097 4233 7094 4229 7102 4226 7097
4231 7095 4220 7092 4176 7151 4166 7216
4171 7224 4161 7248 4164 7255
TIME...MOT...LOC 1524Z 255DEG 44KT 4240 7195 4216 7199 4198 7206 4181
7227 4165 7252

$$

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Thawing Permafrost: The speed of coastal erosion in Eastern Siberia has nearly doubled


Scientists are investigating a coastal area, where waves have hollowed out the thawing cliff line. The melt water which runs down the cliff intensives erosion additionally. Photos: M.N. Grigoriev, Alfred Wegener Institute.

by Staff Writers
Bremerhaven, Germany (SPX) Oct 31, 2013
The high cliffs of Eastern Siberia - which mainly consist of permafrost - continue to erode at an ever quickening pace. This is the conclusion which scientists of the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research have reached after their evaluation of data and aerial photographs of the coastal regions for the last 40 years.

According to the researchers, the reasons for this increasing erosion are rising summer temperatures in the Russian permafrost regions as well the retreat of the Arctic sea ice.

This coastal protection recedes more and more on an annual basis. As a result, waves undermine the shores. At the same time, the land surface begins to sink. The small island of Muostakh east of the Lena Delta is especially affected by these changes. Experts fear that it might even disappear altogether should the loss of land continue.

More....Link
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I would like to read more specifics about this hurricane season vs. general climatology of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Unlike a cooler Atlantic that would suppress storm formation, having hot water around has not been the issue this year (or last, if I recall correctly). Rather, the issue last year seemed to be dry air at some levels, and this year for the first time I heard mention of a "spillover effect" of dry air into the Atlantic due to a drought in the Amazon region.

I would like to hear more detailed discussion around the current South American drought, and the repeating issue of dry air over the Atlantic. We may be entering a quiet period in the Atlantic hurricane seasons again, but I just find it hard to believe it's the Atlantic MDO when the water remains so warm.

As for drought, I believe WU member XULONN was also recently mentioning that Panamanian rainy seasons have been shortening these last few years. In SW Florida our rainy seasons have shortened, and this year's amazingly wet summer has ended very early, with our rainy season absolutely choked off quite suddenly a month or more ago.
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Thanks Doc!
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Quoting 37. 47n91w:
Speaking of Great Lakes storms, today marks 22nd anniversary of the middle of the 1991 Halloween snowstorm. While I wasn't in the bulls-eye of the snow, I do remember trick-or-treating in a snowsuit under my costume.

Maps and more information on NWS Duluth's page on this storm (link).




* At the time, the 36.9" of snow that fell at Duluth set the state record for storm total snowfall. That was surpassed in 1994.

* Snow began in Duluth at about 1 PM on October 31st, and did not end until 1 PM on November 3rd, meaning that snow fell continuously on the city for about 72 hours.








I wanna see a bomb like that come through here this winter. I'm all for a good blizzard.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2893
Speaking of Great Lakes storms, today marks 22nd anniversary of the middle of the 1991 Halloween snowstorm. While I wasn't in the bulls-eye of the snow, I do remember trick-or-treating in a snowsuit under my costume.

Maps and more information on NWS Duluth's page on this storm (link).




* At the time, the 36.9" of snow that fell at Duluth set the state record for storm total snowfall. That was surpassed in 1994.

* Snow began in Duluth at about 1 PM on October 31st, and did not end until 1 PM on November 3rd, meaning that snow fell continuously on the city for about 72 hours.






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Thanks for the Updates,
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Plenty of rain is expected for Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands in the next couple of days. See more details at my blog.

Puerto Rico and VI Weather
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:


84 here with a dewpoint of 72 feels more like June today in Orlando. Very humid with highs topping 90 in many locations today.

It's 66 with a dewpoint of 64 here in SE Alabama. You will start to cool off rapidly once the front reaches you. Luckily, this is high shear/low CAPE event, so there's no severe weather, but the extensive cloud cover is also limiting the rainfall. We still only have .16" since midnight.
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Quoting 26. StormTrackerScott:


84 here with a dewpoint of 72 feels more like June today in Orlando. Very humid with highs topping 90 in many locations today.


Those are almost the same conditions we had in Austin on Wednesday. Then when the storm came through later in the night and the front passed through the following morning the day was awesome. We even had the abhorred cicadas sounding off the day earlier and it felt like late May/early June. Once the front moves through your area it should be great. :)
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Quoting 27. clwstmchasr:


Fear the Spear!


Yeah, but I attended UM during the Jimmy Johnson glory years when folks used to fear the camo pants..........................
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10054
Wave heights during the 1913 storm

Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2893
From Dr. Masters blog:
He concluded that yes, there is an "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". The recent increase in powerful and deadly November hurricanes would seem to support this conclusion.

I'm a bit confused by this. The researcher admitted the uncertainty of these relationships is high. Five of these November hurricanes occurred in the hyperactive years of 2004-2005. It has never been unusual for one tropical storm or hurricane to form during active periods, and the active period beginning in 1995 is making the November storms seem more unusual. How would the increase in November hurricanes during a very active period make the conclusion that the hurricane season longer than usual make this relationship less uncertain? It seems to me we need at least several decades of frequent November hurricanes (more than one) to support this theory. Read this blog by Dr. Masters from 2008 and see if it squares with what he just wrote.
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Quoting 18. TropicalAnalystwx13:
It feels like April...upper 70s with a lot of wind.


84 here with a dewpoint of 72 feels more like June today in Orlando. Very humid with highs topping 90 in many locations today.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 6779
Thanks Dr.  In terms of Conus at the moment, the current front has almost cleared the US and much less activity than we saw yesterday.  That is good news for the US and it looks the rest of the East-SE will enjoy some nice weekend weather after the front, and short rain event, pass on through.

Everyone enjoy the weekend and college football games.  I live in a conflicted household; I graduated from UM, the Wife got her last degree from FSU, and we live in Tallahassee.  I am leaning towards FSU (they have a great team this year) and things will be crazy around town tomorrow with the Miami Fans pouring in.  Gonna stay at home, avoid the traffic tomorrow, and relax for a change.

See Yall Next Week.......................................WW.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10054
Quoting 20. 19N81W:


you have been saying that for a while now....why do the models keep forcasting development then nothing even remotely close occurs are they based on old climatology?


I have been saying that for awhile now because conditions are expected to be conducive for developement next week as a upper level high builds over the C & W Caribbean allowing for a low shear enviroment. The reason for this is because of a Tutt Cell that is progged to move over the Yucatan creating ideal conditions to it's east. We basically have a 7 to 10 window starting this Sunday to get another system after that then we can call the 2013 Hurricane Season over!
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 6779
100th Anniversary of the Great Lakes "White Hurricane"

In November of 1913 the Great Lakes were struck by a massive storm system combining whiteout blizzard conditions and hurricane force winds. The storm lasted for four days, during which the region endured 90 mile per hour winds and waves reaching 35 feet in height. With only basic technology available, shipping communication and weather prediction systems were not prepared for a storm of such devastating force. When the skies finally cleared, the Great Lakes had seen a dozen major shipwrecks, an estimated 250 lives lost, and more than $5 million in damages (the equivalent of more than $117 million today).

Nicknamed the “White Hurricane” and the ‘Freshwater Fury” the 1913 storm remains the most devastating natural disaster to ever strike the Great Lakes. One hundred years later, NOAA commemorates the Storm of 1913 not only for the pivotal role it plays in the history of the Great Lakes but also for its enduring influence. Modern systems of shipping communication, weather prediction, and storm preparedness have all been fundamentally shaped by the events of November 1913.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2893
Interesting retrospect from BBC's forecaster Miller how he experienced the night and the morning when Jude-Christian hit the UK some days ago:



BBC Weather Presenter's brush with stormy weather
BBC, 1 November 2013 Last updated at 11:57

Nick Miller is an experienced weather forecaster for the BBC, but his credentials were no match for the ferocity of a storm he encountered on the morning of October 28, 2013, while heading home from work.


Some quotes from this article:
...I wasn't the only one not getting any sleep that night. The BBC Weather twitter feed was busy with people giving their own updates on what the storm was doing. Weather enthusiasts had decided to stay up to see the storm come in. ...

... It might sound peculiar for a meteorologist but I was genuinely scared and shocked by the sheer physicality of this storm. It's just an eight minute walk to my house but with plenty of trees being battered and difficulty walking against the wind anyway, I couldn't risk it. My choices of refuge were limited - a flimsy-looking platform shelter, a telephone box or a railway bridge.
So, for the next twenty minutes or so, a very humbled weatherman watched, quite in awe from under a railway bridge, as this destructive force of nature unleashed its power before me. ...


BTW: more windstorms in a row on the same path are predicted to come during the next days. Strength is still a bit uncertain.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 66 Comments: 7550
Quoting 16. StormTrackerScott:


Next week is the week if we are going to see something form but if we don't then game over as Lil Flip would say. Link


you have been saying that for a while now....why do the models keep forcasting development then nothing even remotely close occurs are they based on old climatology?
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Quoting 8. rmbjoe1954:
So Florida went eight seasons without a direct hurricane impact. That is an amazing length of time. However, I know that within the next eight years Florida will get hammered big time- at least once. The odds for that to happen should be overwhelming!


It could be next year, or the year after.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2893
It feels like April...upper 70s with a lot of wind.
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Thanks Doc! Glad to see a sensible opinion as far as the rest of the season goes. Thought I was going crazy yesterday when so many people were calling for a double florida hit based on models 10+ days out. One day later... oops?

Now to wait on some research into why this year was so down and whether this was just an anomoly or the start of a trend towards less activity over the coming years.
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Quoting 3. CybrTeddy:
Unless we get something in the next 7 days, I think we can call the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season -- the incredible dud that it was -- over.


Next week is the week if we are going to see something form but if we don't then game over as Lil Flip would say. Link
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 6779
For the wishcasters :

Crowded House - Don't Dream It's Over
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Thanks, Dr. Masters. Your prediction that the season probably is over will spread desperation and relief respectively over this blog ...

From the end of the last blog:

Reading about the debris from air in Vietnam I first thought that GOCE's end already happenend, but it's still there:

GOCE tracker.

GOCE is a slender, winged ion-driven satellite launched to glide through the upper atmosphere for nearly two years measuring Earth's gravity field with unprecedented precision. GOCE data will also provide a new understanding of tectonic activity that could lead to better forecasts of earthquakes and volcanoes. Scientists expect changes in Earth's interior to show up in the satellite's gravity measurements. GOCE, which stands for the Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer, is the first of six ESA Earth Explorer satellites built to focus on aspects of processes affecting the planet's climate.


Source of the photo: Wiki.

Satellite To Fall To Earth In November (But Don't Panic)
Huffington Post UK | Posted: 01/11/2013 11:34 GMT

The UK Space Agency has sent an email warning that a European satellite will plunge to Earth later this month - and there's no way to know where it's going to hit.

While stating that the risk of the satellite causing a danger to life or property is extremely small, it admitted that the satellite had no means to control its decent.

Since 2009 the GOCE satellite has mapped the fine details of Earth's gravitational field.

Now its time is up, and its path is already set. Instead of hanging around in orbit like so much other space junk, the satellite will instead fall towards the Earth and mostly break up in our atmosphere.

But while most of the hardware will disintegrate, the UK Space Agency said that "some smaller parts are expected to reach Earth's surface". ...(More see link)



GOCE has accomplished a very interesting mission:

About GOCE on ESA
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 66 Comments: 7550
I'm just looking at all of the thickness lines between the DC area and the tropics, smiling smugly (though right now there aren't many) and hoping my risk is done for this year.
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Good morning Dr. Masters and thank you for the update. It does indeed appear that the next 10 to 14 days are realistically all that is left of the 2013 season, a season that has confounded the experts and will likely lead to some soul searching for next year's forecasts.

This season has been remarkably similar to the past two with high shear and dry air being the two single obvious deterrents to development of anything other than shortlived weak systems.

I have often wondered whether three years in a row of this apparent flip flop from active seasons with high ACE to active seasons by way of numbers of systems with low to very low ACE may be a signal of a shift back to the previous period of below average TC activity.

If next year is similar to this one I would think that serious consideration would need to be given to whether the very active spell that began in the 90s for the Atlanic is drawing to a close or has ended.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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