Atlantic November Hurricane Outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:01 PM GMT on November 01, 2013

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The tropical Atlantic is quiet, with no threat areas to discuss, and no reliable models predicting development of a tropical cyclone during the coming five days. So, are we all done for 2013? Or will this unusually quiet hurricane season spawn a Tropical Storm Melissa? The large-scale circulation pattern over the first half of November favors upward-moving air and an increased chance of tropical storm development over the Atlantic, due to the current positioning of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days. By mid-November, this pattern will favor sinking air over the tropical Atlantic, making a late-November tropical storm an unlikely proposition. Wind shear has risen to high levels prohibitive for tropical storm formation over the Gulf of Mexico and the waters near the Bahama Islands, and is expected to remain very high through mid-November, according to the latest run of the GFS model. However, wind shear over the Caribbean is likely to be average to below average for the next two weeks, making tropical storm formation possible there. The oceans are certainly warm enough to support development, with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Caribbean 0.2°C (0.37°F) above average, and well above the 26°C (79°F) threshold typically needed to support tropical storm formation (Figure 1.) Dry air--which has dominated the tropical Atlantic during the 2013 hurricane season--will continue to make its presence felt over the Caribbean during portions of the coming two weeks, though, reducing the odds of development. The African Monsoon is quiet this time of year, and we no longer have African waves coming off the coast of Africa that can act as the seeds for formation of a tropical storm in the Caribbean. If we do get a tropical storm, it will probably be in the Western Caribbean, where the tail end of a cold front lingers long enough over warm waters to generate some heavy thunderstorms and acquire a spin. A cold front capable of triggering such a disturbance will arrive over the Western Caribbean November 8 - 9, but the GFS and ECMWF models are not suggesting any development from this front. Taking all these factors into account, I predict that the Atlantic hurricane season of 2013 is over, with just a 20% chance of another named storm this season.


Figure 1. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic on November 1, 2013. The black line marks the 26°C (79°F) isotherm, which is the boundary where tropical storm formation can typically occur. A large portion of the Atlantic is still capable of supporting tropical storm formation, but the Gulf of Mexico is getting marginal.

Climatology of November Atlantic tropical cyclones
Since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995, eleven of the eighteen years (61%) have seen one or more Atlantic named storms form after November 1, for a total of sixteen November/December storms:

2011: Tropical Storm Sean on November 8
2009: Hurricane Ida on November 4
2008: Hurricane Paloma on November 6
2007: Tropical Storm Olga on December 11
2005: the "Greek" storms Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta
2004: Tropical Storm Otto on November 29
2003: Odette and Peter in December
2001: Hurricane Noel on November 5 and Hurricane Olga on November 24
1999: Hurricane Lenny on November 14
1998: Hurricane Nicole on November 24
1996: Hurricane Marco on November 19

Only three of these storms (19%) caused loss of life: Hurricane Ida of 2009, which killed one boater on the Mississippi River; Tropical Storm Odette of 2007, whose floods killed eight people in the Dominican Republic; and Hurricane Lenny of 1999, which killed fifteen people in the Lesser Antilles. "Wrong-way Lenny" was both the deadliest and the strongest November hurricane on record (Category 4, 155 mph winds). There have been only seven major Category 3 or stronger hurricanes in the Atlantic after November 1. Part of the reason for the relatively low loss of life for November storms is that they tend to form from extratropical low pressure systems that get cut off from the jet stream and linger over the warm waters of the subtropical Atlantic. These type of systems typically get their start in the middle Atlantic, far from land, and end up recurving northeastwards out to sea. The most recent November named storm, Tropical Storm Sean of 2011, was an example of this type of storm. However, as I noted in the wake of Hurricane Tomas of November 2010 in my blog post, Deadly late-season Atlantic hurricanes growing more frequent, "It used to be that late-season hurricanes were a relative rarity--in the 140-year period from 1851 - 1990, only 30 hurricanes existed in the Atlantic on or after November 1, an average of one late-season hurricane every five years. Only four major Category 3 or stronger late-season hurricanes occurred in those 140 years, and only three Caribbean hurricanes. But in the past twenty years, late-season hurricanes have become 3.5 times more frequent--there have been fifteen late-season hurricanes, and five of those occurred in the Caribbean. Three of these were major hurricanes, and were the three strongest late-season hurricanes on record". Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is an "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". The recent increase in powerful and deadly November hurricanes would seem to support this conclusion.


Figure 2. The strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic in November, Hurricane Lenny, takes aim at the Lesser Antilles on November 17, 1999. Image credit: NOAA.

Typhoon Krosa takes aim at China
Category 2 Typhoon Krosa is headed towards China's Hainan Island after battering the northern end of Luzon, the main Philippines Island, on Thursday. Krosa hit extreme northeast Luzon near 06 UTC (2 am EDT) on October 31, as a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. No injuries or major damage have been reported so far from the storm. Satellite loops show an impressive system with a large eye and plenty of intense thunderstorms. The typhoon will slowly weaken over the weekend as it encounters higher wind shear and cooler waters, before brushing China's Hainan Island as a tropical storm on Sunday.

The GFS and European models predict that the Philippines will see a new tropical storm or typhoon hit the islands on Friday, November 8.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Krosa taken at 05:05 UTC on November 1, 2013. At the time, Krosa was a Category 1 storm with winds of 85 mph. Image credit: NASA.

TD 18-E in Eastern Pacific will bring heavy rains to Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Depression 18-E has spun up south of Baja, Mexico. Satellite loops show that the depression is poorly organized, but has plenty of intense thunderstorms. Heavy rains from TD 18-E will begin affecting the southern Baja Peninsula and portions of Mainland Mexico to its east on Sunday. The 06Z Friday run of the HWRF model predicted that Mainland Mexico near Manzanillo could see 4 - 8 inches of rain from the system. Moisture from the storm will spread northeastwards into Southwest Texas by Tuesday.

New "Tipping Points" episode, "Arctic Permafrost Peril", airs Saturday at 9 pm EDT/8 pm CDT
“Tipping Points”, a landmark 6-part TV series that began last Saturday on The Weather Channel, airs for the third time on Saturday night, November 2, at 9 pm EDT. The new episode, "Arctic Permafrost Peril", goes on an expedition across Alaska to the North Pole to explore the ticking time bomb of the permafrost melt and the release of tons of carbon dioxide and methane. The series is hosted by polar explorer and climate journalist Bernice Notenboom, the first woman to perform the remarkable triple feat of climbing Mt. Everest and walking to the North and South Poles. In each episode, Notenboom heads off to a far corner of the world to find scientists in the field undertaking vital climate research to try to understand how the climate system is changing and how long we have to make significant changes before we reach a tipping point--a point of no return when our climate system will be changed irreversibly.


Figure 4. "Tipping Points" host Bernice Notenboom watches as scientists take permafrost measurements near the Alaska Pipeline.

I'll have a new post by Monday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 358. weatherboy1251:
I saw 2 "Invests" of my own, Invest #1 is at coordinates 135 degrees East, and 9 degrees North. And Invest #2 at coordinates 165 degrees East, and 2 degrees North, the both have circulations, I think they might be future typhoons, and they are interesting, here is an image. The typhoon is Krosa, of course, at its peak intensity.
Wasn`t Krosa suppose to weaken at this point.
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Quoting 355. VR46L:


I guess its perfectly fine ... Not gonna get upset about it ! Guess its just the way it is !
What r u talking about???
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comments restored
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I saw 2 "Invests" of my own, Invest #1 is at coordinates 135 degrees East, and 9 degrees North. And Invest #2 at coordinates 165 degrees East, and 2 degrees North, the both have circulations, I think they might be future typhoons, and they are interesting, here is an image. The typhoon is Krosa, of course, at its peak intensity.
Member Since: August 10, 2012 Posts: 1 Comments: 18
my blank comments were just some pictures no baiting was intended stop trying to make it look like someone is doing something that is not correct
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Quoting 349. VR46L:


And what proof is there that this happened ? To me that is a very dangerous path seeding the season could be adding to the greatest natural killer.... Drought ... Mid lats and tropical lats really need storms for summer and autumn moisture . That is a very dangerous path to go down
I was just posting pictures I doubt if there is any large scale weather programs being done


there are small scale experiments in china japan western canada but mostly local affects only
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355. VR46L
Quoting 354. sar2401:

Wait...isn't he a moderator? I thought moderators weren't allowed to remove posts. If nothing else, it certainly isn't ethical.


I guess its perfectly fine ... Not gonna get upset about it ! Guess its just the way it is !
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Quoting VR46L:
Oh My !

I don't believe that just happened .... if folk are going to post bait and then remove it .... and don't I look stupid


*shrug*

Wait...isn't he a moderator? I thought moderators weren't allowed to remove posts. If nothing else, it certainly isn't ethical.
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Heavy rain and thunderstorms should arrive in C FL around Daybreak tomorrow from Tampa to Daytona. Some areas could get 1" to 3" of rain from this event as a strong piece of short wave energy rounds the base of this trough on Saturday.



Scott, still putting faith in the old HPC, I guess. Have you looked at the actual front and what it's doing? It's s skinny little thing with very little in dynamics. It's cleared SE AL and I got .26". If you're lucky, you might get half an inch. I swear, you see heavy rain and flooding from every front that approaches Orlando.
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352. VR46L
Oh My !

I don't believe that just happened .... if folk are going to post bait and then remove it .... and don't I look stupid


*shrug*
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Quoting 308. Sfloridacat5:


Looking at that radar presentation, it looks like the Balcones Escarpment may have intensified the precipitaton in that region.

It wouldn't be the first time. There is a reason that area is called "Flash Flood Alley," and that's part of it for sure.
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TD-14 ?
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349. VR46L
Quoting 342. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




And what proof is there that this happened ? To me that is a very dangerous path seeding the season could be adding to the greatest natural killer.... Drought ... Mid lats and tropical lats really need storms for summer and autumn moisture . That is a very dangerous path to go down
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Quoting 319. TropicalAnalystwx13:

haha thanks Cods that make me laugh XD.I really appreciate it.
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My wish for a low end tropical storm- could it come true? There is an interesting area in the Central Caribbean. Now only if a high would hurry up and build in so that shear could drop, then we could have some fun.
Member Since: March 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 264
Quoting 344. marknmelb:


See THIS is the problem here in Florida. People think the LEFT lane is the SLOW lane. The LEFT lane is the FAST lane.


Not just in Florida. Here in Tennessee we used to have law that said the left lane was for High-Occupancy Vehicles only, or the HOV lane. It was intended to speed the lane up, since it's a basic through-way part of a highway. That failed.
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Hurricanes have energy of thousand of nuclear weapons. I don't see how you can stop that.
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Quoting 203. PalmBeachWeather:
Good luck with that Largo...Before I pass I would like to see Florida drivers realize that the left lane is the "slow" lane...Good luck with that also


See THIS is the problem here in Florida. People think the LEFT lane is the SLOW lane. The LEFT lane is the FAST lane.
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Heavy rain and thunderstorms should arrive in C FL around Daybreak tomorrow from Tampa to Daytona. Some areas could get 1" to 3" of rain from this event as a strong piece of short wave energy rounds the base of this trough on Saturday.


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Quoting 330. VR46L:


Sounds like tin foil hats to me .... I dont think places like Texas and LA would be happy ... they could have done with a TS and the Mid west could have benefit from the rains from Gulf falling canes...




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Quoting 324. MiamiHeat305:


if i may ask what are you seeing that makes you think this will develop? and head west towards FL?


I never said it would develope just that some of the models more notably the GGEM was showing something coming from that area moving west as a huge 1043 high builds over the Mid Atlantic.

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Quoting 326. sebastianflorida:
People on several other sites were talking about a breaking story coming out about 2013 storm seeding worked according to reliable leaks. Don't know what to make of it, but I'm researching now. This story is suppose to break very soon, like tonite from what they are saying.






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339. VR46L
Quoting 334. Sfloridacat5:


They'll probably take credit for the Saharan dust, high shear, and dry air across the tropical Atlantic this season.


You know thats what I love about this season .... Mama Nature gave Scientists and forecasters an absolute kicking .... She is unpredictable and does what she pleases ...
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Station 42058
NDBC
Location: 14.923N 74.918W
Date: Fri, 01 Nov 2013 21:50:00 UTC
Winds: ENE (70°) at 11.7 kt gusting to 13.6 kt
Significant Wave Height: 5.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Mean Wave Direction: E (90°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.76 in and falling
Air Temperature: 82.4 F
Water Temperature: 84.6 F

Pressure at this buoy 1007.4mb and falling.
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Quoting 306. Astrometeor:


I notice an absence of reports from the plateau region...It is quite sparse in these parts..
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Quoting 285. dabirds:
That view should make you a little less blue, Blue. It's cleared up here after 2 1/2 days of 100% RH. 2.3" total. We hit 59 today, dew point has dropped into mid 40s, pressure on way back up - 29.65". Perfect day for the start of HS playoffs, our team makes the third appearance in a row, not bad for a mainly BB school.

Future is bright if can get an offensive SS. Would love to convince Carlos to forget about DHing for one more year, don't want to see him in StL in pinstripes next summer.


I wish we can keep Carlos to mentor Oscar Taveras, but I don't know if Cardinals will go down that path. Sucks we lost World Series, but it happens. I'm still a proud fan of National League champions :)
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Quoting 300. dabirds:
Blue Angels in StL metro today - fueling up before heading to S Bend - for flyover at tomorrow's ND-Navy game. They'll be back in StL in May for an air show. Happy they're flying! Must have been having some fun, a few booms reported.


Oh I miss the fair at Spirit of St. Louis Airport in Chesterfield, MO... every year, I would sit in my backyard in Wildwood and watch the Blue Angels fly very low over my home. That was awesome. Wish the fair is still there, but I still got NC State Fair in Raleigh and I saw Blue Angels again last summer on a boat off coast of Portsmouth, NH.
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Quoting 330. VR46L:


Sounds like tin foil hats to me .... I dont think places like Texas and LA would be happy ... they could have done with a TS and the Mid west could have benefit from the rains from Gulf falling canes...


They'll probably take credit for the Saharan dust, high shear, and dry air across the tropical Atlantic this season.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9397
Quoting 329. wunderkidcayman:

Aww reminds me of my self and my cus when we flew F/A-18D once few years ago

On tropical news our E Caribbean AOI getting better vort increasing at 850 and 925

Shear is indeed falling over the system this need to be watched


You did what?
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13N/73W "could" get interesting!
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330. VR46L
Quoting 326. sebastianflorida:
People on several other sites were talking about a breaking story coming out about 2013 storm seeding worked according to reliable leaks. Don't know what to make of it, but I'm researching now. This story is suppose to break very soon, like tonite from what they are saying.


Sounds like tin foil hats to me .... I dont think places like Texas and LA would be happy ... they could have done with a TS and the Mid west could have benefit from the rains from Gulf falling canes...
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Quoting 318. Patrap:





At Belle Chase Naval Air Station Blue Angel Featured Air Show.

Patrap Jr. in Plt seat, F-4 Phantom with your's truly in Rio seat. 95" October

Will be watching the Game on da tube here.

Semper Fi.

Aww reminds me of my self and my cus when we flew F/A-18D once few years ago

On tropical news our E Caribbean AOI getting better vort increasing at 850 and 925

Shear is indeed falling over the system this need to be watched
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12719
Quoting 311. VirginIslandsVisitor:


I think you're right. I just had to turn on a few lamps around the house. It seems to have gotten dark all of a sudden. Looked outside and it's coming from the east.

:-)


Hi Lindy.

PR is also experiencing the rain with some gusts. Hopefully your cistern gets filled to the top. See the radar and NWS forecast at my blog
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Krosa

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129909
People on several other sites were talking about a breaking story coming out about 2013 storm seeding worked according to reliable leaks. Don't know what to make of it, but I'm researching now. This story is suppose to break very soon, like tonite from what they are saying.
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Dale Earnhardt Jr flies with the Blue Angels

Hang on.

Rotating

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129909
Quoting 312. StormTrackerScott:
I have been wondering lately where is this system that the models develope north of the islands and then I noticed the NAM that is showing a similar situation to what the GGEM was showing yesterday. Things may get a little more interesting than some think. Could have a possible Sub Tropical developement east of the Bahamas moving west toward FL next week.



It's this area South of Bermuda



if i may ask what are you seeing that makes you think this will develop? and head west towards FL?
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Quoting 319. TropicalAnalystwx13:



Dead at 88?
Link

Unless, of course, you yourself TA aren't expecting to live that long.

I don't really understand "dog years", because it depends on the breed really how long a dog can live. I don't expect my own to live 18 years, but a smaller dog could/can.
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Quoting 312. StormTrackerScott:
I have been wondering lately where is this system that the models develope north of the islands and then I noticed the NAM that is showing a similar situation to what the GGEM was showing yesterday. Things may get a little more interesting than some think. Could have a possible Sub Tropical developement east of the Bahamas moving west toward FL next week.



It's this area South of Bermuda

You know better with all that's happening.
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Quoting 185. kmanislander:
The Canadian takes the low to the NW over Jamaica, then West across Cayman as a weak system but brings a stronger system from the SE Bahamas across eastern Cuba and over Cayman again.

You have to hand it to the Canadian for imagination !.


Must hate cayman lol
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12719
Quoting 314. Astrometeor:


What? The NAM is showing a similar situation to the NAM?

?
Yeah you didn't know that we had a parallel universe? :P
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Quoting 267. allancalderini:
Good afternoon,I hope everyone is having a good day.Today has been amazing my classmates bought me a cake and we celebrate for 2 hours at school.Now I am supposely to go out at night with them and have dinner.I a happy that I am finally 18 :D

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Quoting 300. dabirds:
Blue Angels in StL metro today - fueling up before heading to S Bend - for flyover at tomorrow's ND-Navy game. They'll be back in StL in May for an air show. Happy they're flying! Must have been having some fun, a few booms reported.





At Belle Chase Naval Air Station Blue Angel Featured Air Show.

Patrap Jr. in Plt seat, F-4 Phantom with your's truly in Rio seat. 95" October

Will be watching the Game on da tube here.

Semper Fi.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129909
Quoting 314. Astrometeor:


What? The NAM is showing a similar situation to the NAM?

?


Re read! Edited this a second after I posted. Man you guys are fast!
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Quoting 315. StormTrackerScott:


Already beat you to it.


Ah, thanks for the correction Scott.
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Quoting 313. VR46L:


Ye might want to edit this ;)

I noticed the NAM that is showing a similar situation to what the NAM is showing.



Already beat you to it.
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Quoting 312. StormTrackerScott:
I have been wondering lately where is this system that the models develope north of the islands and then I noticed the NAM that is showing a similar situation to what the NAM is showing. Things may get a little more interesting than some think. Could have a possible Sub Tropical developement east of the Bahamas moving west toward FL next week.


What? The NAM is showing a similar situation to the NAM?

?
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313. VR46L
Quoting 312. StormTrackerScott:
I have been wondering lately where is this system that the models develope north of the islands and then I noticed the NAM that is showing a similar situation to what the NAM is showing. Things may get a little more interesting than some think. Could have a possible Sub Tropical developement east of the Bahamas moving west toward FL next week.



It's this area South of Bermuda



Ye might want to edit this ;)

I noticed the NAM that is showing a similar situation to what the NAM is showing.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I have been wondering lately where is this system that the models develope north of the islands and then I noticed the NAM that is showing a similar situation to what the GGEM was showing yesterday. Things may get a little more interesting than some think. Could have a possible Sub Tropical developement east of the Bahamas moving west toward FL next week.



It's this area South of Bermuda

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Quoting 289. CaribBoy:


XD I'm confident the Virgin Islands will get some tonight and tomorrow!


I think you're right. I just had to turn on a few lamps around the house. It seems to have gotten dark all of a sudden. Looked outside and it's coming from the east.

:-)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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