Atlantic November Hurricane Outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:01 PM GMT on November 01, 2013

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The tropical Atlantic is quiet, with no threat areas to discuss, and no reliable models predicting development of a tropical cyclone during the coming five days. So, are we all done for 2013? Or will this unusually quiet hurricane season spawn a Tropical Storm Melissa? The large-scale circulation pattern over the first half of November favors upward-moving air and an increased chance of tropical storm development over the Atlantic, due to the current positioning of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days. By mid-November, this pattern will favor sinking air over the tropical Atlantic, making a late-November tropical storm an unlikely proposition. Wind shear has risen to high levels prohibitive for tropical storm formation over the Gulf of Mexico and the waters near the Bahama Islands, and is expected to remain very high through mid-November, according to the latest run of the GFS model. However, wind shear over the Caribbean is likely to be average to below average for the next two weeks, making tropical storm formation possible there. The oceans are certainly warm enough to support development, with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Caribbean 0.2°C (0.37°F) above average, and well above the 26°C (79°F) threshold typically needed to support tropical storm formation (Figure 1.) Dry air--which has dominated the tropical Atlantic during the 2013 hurricane season--will continue to make its presence felt over the Caribbean during portions of the coming two weeks, though, reducing the odds of development. The African Monsoon is quiet this time of year, and we no longer have African waves coming off the coast of Africa that can act as the seeds for formation of a tropical storm in the Caribbean. If we do get a tropical storm, it will probably be in the Western Caribbean, where the tail end of a cold front lingers long enough over warm waters to generate some heavy thunderstorms and acquire a spin. A cold front capable of triggering such a disturbance will arrive over the Western Caribbean November 8 - 9, but the GFS and ECMWF models are not suggesting any development from this front. Taking all these factors into account, I predict that the Atlantic hurricane season of 2013 is over, with just a 20% chance of another named storm this season.


Figure 1. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic on November 1, 2013. The black line marks the 26°C (79°F) isotherm, which is the boundary where tropical storm formation can typically occur. A large portion of the Atlantic is still capable of supporting tropical storm formation, but the Gulf of Mexico is getting marginal.

Climatology of November Atlantic tropical cyclones
Since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995, eleven of the eighteen years (61%) have seen one or more Atlantic named storms form after November 1, for a total of sixteen November/December storms:

2011: Tropical Storm Sean on November 8
2009: Hurricane Ida on November 4
2008: Hurricane Paloma on November 6
2007: Tropical Storm Olga on December 11
2005: the "Greek" storms Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta
2004: Tropical Storm Otto on November 29
2003: Odette and Peter in December
2001: Hurricane Noel on November 5 and Hurricane Olga on November 24
1999: Hurricane Lenny on November 14
1998: Hurricane Nicole on November 24
1996: Hurricane Marco on November 19

Only three of these storms (19%) caused loss of life: Hurricane Ida of 2009, which killed one boater on the Mississippi River; Tropical Storm Odette of 2007, whose floods killed eight people in the Dominican Republic; and Hurricane Lenny of 1999, which killed fifteen people in the Lesser Antilles. "Wrong-way Lenny" was both the deadliest and the strongest November hurricane on record (Category 4, 155 mph winds). There have been only seven major Category 3 or stronger hurricanes in the Atlantic after November 1. Part of the reason for the relatively low loss of life for November storms is that they tend to form from extratropical low pressure systems that get cut off from the jet stream and linger over the warm waters of the subtropical Atlantic. These type of systems typically get their start in the middle Atlantic, far from land, and end up recurving northeastwards out to sea. The most recent November named storm, Tropical Storm Sean of 2011, was an example of this type of storm. However, as I noted in the wake of Hurricane Tomas of November 2010 in my blog post, Deadly late-season Atlantic hurricanes growing more frequent, "It used to be that late-season hurricanes were a relative rarity--in the 140-year period from 1851 - 1990, only 30 hurricanes existed in the Atlantic on or after November 1, an average of one late-season hurricane every five years. Only four major Category 3 or stronger late-season hurricanes occurred in those 140 years, and only three Caribbean hurricanes. But in the past twenty years, late-season hurricanes have become 3.5 times more frequent--there have been fifteen late-season hurricanes, and five of those occurred in the Caribbean. Three of these were major hurricanes, and were the three strongest late-season hurricanes on record". Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is an "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". The recent increase in powerful and deadly November hurricanes would seem to support this conclusion.


Figure 2. The strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic in November, Hurricane Lenny, takes aim at the Lesser Antilles on November 17, 1999. Image credit: NOAA.

Typhoon Krosa takes aim at China
Category 2 Typhoon Krosa is headed towards China's Hainan Island after battering the northern end of Luzon, the main Philippines Island, on Thursday. Krosa hit extreme northeast Luzon near 06 UTC (2 am EDT) on October 31, as a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. No injuries or major damage have been reported so far from the storm. Satellite loops show an impressive system with a large eye and plenty of intense thunderstorms. The typhoon will slowly weaken over the weekend as it encounters higher wind shear and cooler waters, before brushing China's Hainan Island as a tropical storm on Sunday.

The GFS and European models predict that the Philippines will see a new tropical storm or typhoon hit the islands on Friday, November 8.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Krosa taken at 05:05 UTC on November 1, 2013. At the time, Krosa was a Category 1 storm with winds of 85 mph. Image credit: NASA.

TD 18-E in Eastern Pacific will bring heavy rains to Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Depression 18-E has spun up south of Baja, Mexico. Satellite loops show that the depression is poorly organized, but has plenty of intense thunderstorms. Heavy rains from TD 18-E will begin affecting the southern Baja Peninsula and portions of Mainland Mexico to its east on Sunday. The 06Z Friday run of the HWRF model predicted that Mainland Mexico near Manzanillo could see 4 - 8 inches of rain from the system. Moisture from the storm will spread northeastwards into Southwest Texas by Tuesday.

New "Tipping Points" episode, "Arctic Permafrost Peril", airs Saturday at 9 pm EDT/8 pm CDT
“Tipping Points”, a landmark 6-part TV series that began last Saturday on The Weather Channel, airs for the third time on Saturday night, November 2, at 9 pm EDT. The new episode, "Arctic Permafrost Peril", goes on an expedition across Alaska to the North Pole to explore the ticking time bomb of the permafrost melt and the release of tons of carbon dioxide and methane. The series is hosted by polar explorer and climate journalist Bernice Notenboom, the first woman to perform the remarkable triple feat of climbing Mt. Everest and walking to the North and South Poles. In each episode, Notenboom heads off to a far corner of the world to find scientists in the field undertaking vital climate research to try to understand how the climate system is changing and how long we have to make significant changes before we reach a tipping point--a point of no return when our climate system will be changed irreversibly.


Figure 4. "Tipping Points" host Bernice Notenboom watches as scientists take permafrost measurements near the Alaska Pipeline.

I'll have a new post by Monday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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The disturbance that will intensify storms over C FL Saturday morning is currently moving rapidly across East Texas at the moment.

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New "Tipping Points" episode, "Arctic Permafrost Peril", airs Saturday at 9 pm EDT/8 pm CDT


What I find odd about this series , is they make zero effort to promote it. I mean nothing from week to week. It's like crazy uncle in the basement.
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Heavy rain and thunderstorms will build toward Tampa to Daytona by daybreak as strong disturbance currently over Texas pushes east toward N FL. A solid 1 to 3" rain event can be expected across C FL and some storms could be severe with damaging winds and hail.

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Quoting 396. beell:


So are you saying that if the cold season is in like a lamb and november ice will bear a duck, winter will go out like a lion-or sheepishly?


It's the other way around. A lionish November means a lambish rest of the cold season.

I doubt there's any validity to this one but some weather proverbs are spot on

"red sky in morning, sailors take warning
red sky at night sailors delight"

or
"evening red and morning gray
speeds the traveler on his way,

evening gray and morning red,
brings down rain upon his head"

has sound physical backing. Red sky in the morning means dust and mixing which indicates an agitated turbulent state even after a night of cooling. But afternoon red sky, that's normal after heating in sunny weather.
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Meh.
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What the lowlands can teach the U.S. about warding off high water.
Link

CNN fired MILES OBRIEN, is may be his best work yet, for PBS.
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Pssst..... I made a new blog.

2013–2014 Australian tropical cyclone season outlook
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Yesterday's event can actually be considered a decent tornado outbreak. As of this post, various NWS offices have nearly two dozen tornadoes (I have 19 and adding here). The strongest thus far is an EF2 near Baker, Missouri, where brick was removed from the side of a house and 3 sheds/4 grain bins were leveled.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32877
It'd be awesome for this year to end without a really bad storm..but it seems like there's always some storm that IS bad at some point even in non-active years such as 1992 and whatever year in the 80s we had 4 storms..
Heck, I'd rather had a repeat of that year..
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Quoting bappit:
Posted on Rood's blog, but seems worth broader distribution.

So some group of starry-eyed academics believe they could have had any influence on President Mbeki of South Africa, a certified lunatic, by just letting him know he didn't understand science? I guess they were never in South Africa when this nutcase was in charge. Telling him anything he didn't want to hear ended up with your body being found in a gutter.

It would also help if scientists learned to write in clear, understandable English. I'd rather have my eyes poked out by forks than wade through many of those pier-reviewed papers, which seem to compete with each other using obscure scientific terms and tortured sentence structure.
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Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Look at that doughnut eye.



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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting 340. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Quoting 326. sebastianflorida:
People on several other sites were talking about a breaking story coming out about 2013 storm seeding worked according to reliable leaks. Don't know what to make of it, but I'm researching now. This story is suppose to break very soon, like tonite from what they are saying.








*facepalm*

Let's just look at the fundamentals here. Hurricanes pack an incredible amount of energy. It's lifting and spinning millions of metric tons of water at great speed over a very large distance. Even if you manage to disrupt convection a little bit (very unlikely) your doing nothing about the accumulated momentum of the airmass, nor anything about it's source of energy. You could even make things worse.

Dropping what amounts to a little bit of dust on a hurricane is about as effective as throwing a clod of dirt into a raging flooded river.


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Look at that doughnut eye.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Quoting sunlinepr:


Kick them Jenny has been clasified as a potential Tsunami creator in the Caribbean...

That would be Kick 'Em Jenny to be absolutely correct, but you're right about the tsunami risk. I have sailed past Jenny many times, and you keep a tight hold on the wheel as you round the island. Goes from 5 knots to 35 knots in seconds.
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396. beell
Quoting 392. georgevandenberghe:


Northeast saying.

"If Ice in November will bear a duck,
there'll be nothing thereafter but slush and muck"





So are you saying that if the cold season is in like a lamb and november ice will bear a duck, winter will go out like a lion-or sheepishly?
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Quoting 391. barbamz:




Two sreenshots from the underwater exploration in the crater of Cick-'em-Jenny, with a cute little bubble "volcano". Scientist on the Nautilus were freaking out, lol.


Kick them Jenny has been clasified as a potential Tsunami creator in the Caribbean...
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
Quoting 390. SLU:


Nice avatar
Thanks :)
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Good morning Krosa. That's one huge eye. JTWC has it at 100 knots.

Eye temp is at 14 C
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 NOV 2013 Time : 233000 UTC
Lat : 19:33:59 N Lon : 115:49:41 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 956.0mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.5 5.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 35 km

Center Temp : 14.2C Cloud Region Temp : -68.7C

Scene Type : LARGE EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 146km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT1
Satellite Viewing Angle : 35.7 degrees
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Quoting 385. 12george1:

Highs in the 50's? You've got nothing to complain about. I'm stuck here in South Florida waiting for lows in the 50's.
Quoting 373. washingtonian115:
Where is the really cold air -_-.Highs in the 50's aren't going to cut it.I'm tied of spring in fall.


Northeast saying.

"If Ice in November will bear a duck,
there'll be nothing thereafter but slush and muck"

The last half of winter 2012-2013 was actually normal for here after a very warm first half. 2010-2011 had a cold December and first half of January.

I still remember Jan 1994 when highs were in the single digits, lows were below zero areawide WITH WIND, we had a water main break near the house and a glacier with water underneath slowly advanced to my foundation, my sump pump line froze outside, I couldn't pump the water out, in the midst of this I decided my father was not safe in SC PA, snowbound with a frozen car fuel line so I went up, dug him out and brought him down here.. an eventful middle of Jan. And that year we had more ice storms than any other including one where the ice covered the grass and it wasn't safe to walk anywhere.

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Two sreenshots from the underwater exploration in the crater of Cick-'em-Jenny, with a cute little bubble "volcano". Scientist on the Nautilus were freaking out, lol.
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390. SLU
Quoting 388. washingtonian115:
We need it badly.Yeah something is telling me not to expect much from this winter.


Nice avatar
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Rough.
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Quoting 381. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Blame the lack of an El Nino for that. Have you noticed since 2009 the winters have actually been warmer across the Eastern US? Why is mother nature doing this to us, why? It gave us a boring hurricane season and now I fear it is going to give us a boring winter season, ughhh I might move out of this place. :P
We need it badly.Yeah something is telling me not to expect much from this winter.
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387. flsky
Quoting 385. 12george1:

Highs in the 50's? You've got nothing to complain about. I'm stuck here in South Florida waiting for lows in the 50's.

You call that stuck!?
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"Taking all these factors into account, I predict that the Atlantic hurricane season of 2013 is over, with just a 20% chance of another named storm this season."

Wow, bold prediction, more of the same, which by the way is nothing close to what was predicted at the beginning of the season.

Perhaps an honest scientist will one day stand up and say, "The hurricane predictions we provide every year are junk".
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Quoting 373. washingtonian115:
Where is the really cold air -_-.Highs in the 50's aren't going to cut it.I'm tied of spring in fall.

Highs in the 50's? You've got nothing to complain about. I'm stuck here in South Florida waiting for lows in the 50's.
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Quoting 383. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Agglomerating - To collect or form into a mass or group. Thanks barbamz I will add that to my dictionary.


Welcome. I hope I've grasp the right term, lol. Here's a selection from the online dictionary to chose:
Link
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Quoting 377. barbamz:

Something is agglomerating south of Hispaniola. Click to enlarge.
Agglomerating - To collect or form into a mass or group. Thanks barbamz I will add that to my dictionary.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Posted on Rood's blog, but seems worth broader distribution.
Quoting 1334. JohnLonergan:
The Subterranean War on Science

"Science denial kills. More than 300,000 South Africans died needlessly in the early 2000s because the government of President Mbeki preferred to treat AIDS with garlic and beetroot rather than antiretroviral drugs (Chigwedere, Seage, Gruskin, Lee, & Essex,2008). The premature death toll from tobacco is staggering and historians have shown how it was needlessly inflated by industry-sponsored denial of robust medical evidence (Proctor, 2011). The US now faces the largest outbreak of whooping cough in decades, in part because of widespread denial of the benefits of vaccinations (Rosenau, 2012). According to the World Health Organization, climate change is already claiming more than 150,000 lives annually (Patz, Campbell-Lendrum, Holloway, & Foley, 2005), and estimates of future migrations triggered by unmitigated global warming run as high as 187 million refugees (Nicholls et al., 2011). A common current attribute of denial is that it side-steps the peer-reviewed literature and relies on platforms such as internet blogs or tabloid newspapers to disseminate its dissent from the scientific mainstream. In contrast, the publication of dissenting views in the peer-reviewed literature does not constitute denial."...


..."How should the scientific community respond to the events just reviewed? As in most cases of intimidation and bullying, we believe that daylight is the best disinfectant. This article is a first step in this effort towards transparency. Knowledge of the common techniques by which scientists are attacked, irrespective of their discipline and research area, is essential so that institutions can support their academics against attempts to thwart their academic freedom. This information is also essential to enable lawmakers to improve the balance between academic freedom and confidentiality of peer review on the one hand, and the public’s right to access information on the other. Finally, this knowledge is particularly important for journal editors and professional organizations to muster the required resilience against illegitimate insertions into the scientific process."
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Quoting 373. washingtonian115:
Where is the really cold air -_-.Highs in the 50's aren't going to cut it.I'm tied of spring in fall.
Blame the lack of an El Nino for that. Have you noticed since 2009 the winters have actually been warmer across the Eastern US? Why is mother nature doing this to us, why? It gave us a boring hurricane season and now I fear it is going to give us a boring winter season, ughhh I might move out of this place. :P
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Quoting 378. Jedkins01:
FINALLY getting some much needed rainfall here, although unfortunately its too short lived to accumulate enough, but we'll take what we can get.

It seems like every system since September that appears like its going to be a good rain maker for days per models ends up being not much of anything, just as it looks good, the models back off within the 48 hour window, and sure enough, very little rain.

In fact, we've had about a half inch today, and believe it or not, this is the most impressive rain event in literally weeks.

It's very odd because the summer was very wet and active in Tallahassee, as soon as I moved back to start the fall semester, it has been very dry since.
I don't know if you read back, but I'm really looking forward to the coming of an El Nino winter again. Something on the order of 2009-2010 with some snow thrown into the mix. :D
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
FINALLY getting some much needed rainfall here, although unfortunately its too short lived to accumulate enough, but we'll take what we can get.

It seems like every system since September that appears like its going to be a good rain maker for days per models ends up being not much of anything, just as it looks good, the models back off within the 48 hour window, and sure enough, very little rain.

In fact, we've had about a half inch today, and believe it or not, this is the most impressive rain event in literally weeks.

It's very odd because the summer was very wet and active in Tallahassee, as soon as I moved back to start the fall semester, it has been very dry since.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8029

Something is agglomerating south of Hispaniola. Click to enlarge.
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Krosa

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Quoting 344. marknmelb:


See THIS is the problem here in Florida. People think the LEFT lane is the SLOW lane. The LEFT lane is the FAST lane.


lol, so true, especially the Tampa Bay area, which although I love and is where I grew up, has arguably the worst drivers in the U.S. on average.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8029
Quoting 370. Hurricane614:
Iv'e heard a lot of talk about ULL and TUTT this season. I'm new and have know clue what this means, and when I look online they have some crazy wordy responses. Can somebody explain what these things are as simple as possible

Also, I saw this and thought you guys might like it.

Link


the reason for the extreme shorthand is that the explanations for these places, phenomena or concepts is that they can't easily be boiled down to a few short words.
eg, MJO - Madden Julian Oscillation - still not a definitive answer, look it up.
ULL is short for Upper Level Low

sorry, my first post.. been watching for a couple of years now
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Where is the really cold air -_-.Highs in the 50's aren't going to cut it.I'm tied of spring in fall.
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Quoting 370. Hurricane614:
Iv'e heard a lot of talk about ULL and TUTT this season. I'm new and have know clue what this means, and when I look online they have some crazy wordy responses. Can somebody explain what these things are as simple as possible

Also, I saw this and thought you guys might like it.

Link


LOL - actually what is written in that 'toon is pretty much verbatim from the actual updates/advisories issued by the NHC in 2005.
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Quoting 364. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
forget it baha some people make comments sometimes to people but then remove them in order to make people look bad or whatever the intend

only difference with mine is there was no intend
but vr has had it done to her in the past so she just gets a little wary of it

I have no hard feelings

but I can restore comments after there gone along with removing it

so no problem for me to put any comment back up
Okay... I think I get how she feels [waves at VR] because I just stepped out of the blog for a minute and then it was like I was wigging out...

lol

I think I'm going to call it a blogging day; just getting off work and feel pretty beat.

I'll be watching our ECar feature over the weekend, even if I don't get to blog as much as I'd like.

Enjoy!
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Iv'e heard a lot of talk about ULL and TUTT this season. I'm new and have know clue what this means, and when I look online they have some crazy wordy responses. Can somebody explain what these things are as simple as possible

Also, I saw this and thought you guys might like it.

Link
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fall time in new haven,conn
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Quoting 344. marknmelb:


See THIS is the problem here in Florida. People think the LEFT lane is the SLOW lane. The LEFT lane is the FAST lane.

Drive the speed limit in a middle lane anywhere. I bet most people pass on the right.
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Link: Status of the Nautilus, live streaming from their underwater ROVs:

Currently on station over Kick'em Jenny with ROVs Hercules and Argus at depths of approximately 240m exploring the central crater of this submarine volcano! 4 hours 26 min ago



Wiki:
The first record of the volcano was in 1939, although it must have erupted many times before that date. On 23-24 July 1939 an eruption broke the sea surface, sending a cloud of steam and debris 275 m (902 ft) into the air and generating a series of tsunamis around two metres high when they reached the coastlines of northern Grenada and the southern Grenadines. A small tsunami also reached the West coast of nearby Barbados, where 'a sea-wave' suddenly washed over a coastal road.

The volcano has erupted on at least twelve occasions between 1939 and 2001 (the last being on December 4, 2001), although none of the eruptions have been as large as the 1939 one, and most were only detected by seismographs. The larger eruptions have also been heard underwater or on land close to the volcano as a deep rumbling sound.

A submersible survey in 2003 detected a crater with active fumaroles releasing cold and hot gas bubbles. The summit was measured to be 180 m (591 ft) below the sea surface and is thought to have remained constant since the 1960s.
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Krosa

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FIVE DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Quoting 362. BahaHurican:
Huh? He can't remove HIS OWN posts????

We all can do that by hitting modify, delete, then insert a full stop or something....

[scratching head]
forget it baha some people make comments sometimes to people but then remove them in order to make people look bad or whatever the intend

only difference with mine is there was no intend
but vr has had it done to her in the past so she just gets a little wary of it

I have no hard feelings

but I can restore comments after there gone along with removing it

so no problem for me to put any comment back up
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Quoting 361. allancalderini:
Wasn`t Krosa suppose to weaken at this point.
Looks like it's going to intensify right to landfall ATM...
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Quoting 354. sar2401:

Wait...isn't he a moderator? I thought moderators weren't allowed to remove posts. If nothing else, it certainly isn't ethical.
Huh? He can't remove HIS OWN posts????

We all can do that by hitting modify, delete, then insert a full stop or something....

[scratching head]
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Quoting 358. weatherboy1251:
I saw 2 "Invests" of my own, Invest #1 is at coordinates 135 degrees East, and 9 degrees North. And Invest #2 at coordinates 165 degrees East, and 2 degrees North, the both have circulations, I think they might be future typhoons, and they are interesting, here is an image. The typhoon is Krosa, of course, at its peak intensity.
Wasn`t Krosa suppose to weaken at this point.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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