Atlantic November Hurricane Outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:01 PM GMT on November 01, 2013

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The tropical Atlantic is quiet, with no threat areas to discuss, and no reliable models predicting development of a tropical cyclone during the coming five days. So, are we all done for 2013? Or will this unusually quiet hurricane season spawn a Tropical Storm Melissa? The large-scale circulation pattern over the first half of November favors upward-moving air and an increased chance of tropical storm development over the Atlantic, due to the current positioning of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days. By mid-November, this pattern will favor sinking air over the tropical Atlantic, making a late-November tropical storm an unlikely proposition. Wind shear has risen to high levels prohibitive for tropical storm formation over the Gulf of Mexico and the waters near the Bahama Islands, and is expected to remain very high through mid-November, according to the latest run of the GFS model. However, wind shear over the Caribbean is likely to be average to below average for the next two weeks, making tropical storm formation possible there. The oceans are certainly warm enough to support development, with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Caribbean 0.2°C (0.37°F) above average, and well above the 26°C (79°F) threshold typically needed to support tropical storm formation (Figure 1.) Dry air--which has dominated the tropical Atlantic during the 2013 hurricane season--will continue to make its presence felt over the Caribbean during portions of the coming two weeks, though, reducing the odds of development. The African Monsoon is quiet this time of year, and we no longer have African waves coming off the coast of Africa that can act as the seeds for formation of a tropical storm in the Caribbean. If we do get a tropical storm, it will probably be in the Western Caribbean, where the tail end of a cold front lingers long enough over warm waters to generate some heavy thunderstorms and acquire a spin. A cold front capable of triggering such a disturbance will arrive over the Western Caribbean November 8 - 9, but the GFS and ECMWF models are not suggesting any development from this front. Taking all these factors into account, I predict that the Atlantic hurricane season of 2013 is over, with just a 20% chance of another named storm this season.


Figure 1. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic on November 1, 2013. The black line marks the 26°C (79°F) isotherm, which is the boundary where tropical storm formation can typically occur. A large portion of the Atlantic is still capable of supporting tropical storm formation, but the Gulf of Mexico is getting marginal.

Climatology of November Atlantic tropical cyclones
Since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995, eleven of the eighteen years (61%) have seen one or more Atlantic named storms form after November 1, for a total of sixteen November/December storms:

2011: Tropical Storm Sean on November 8
2009: Hurricane Ida on November 4
2008: Hurricane Paloma on November 6
2007: Tropical Storm Olga on December 11
2005: the "Greek" storms Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta
2004: Tropical Storm Otto on November 29
2003: Odette and Peter in December
2001: Hurricane Noel on November 5 and Hurricane Olga on November 24
1999: Hurricane Lenny on November 14
1998: Hurricane Nicole on November 24
1996: Hurricane Marco on November 19

Only three of these storms (19%) caused loss of life: Hurricane Ida of 2009, which killed one boater on the Mississippi River; Tropical Storm Odette of 2007, whose floods killed eight people in the Dominican Republic; and Hurricane Lenny of 1999, which killed fifteen people in the Lesser Antilles. "Wrong-way Lenny" was both the deadliest and the strongest November hurricane on record (Category 4, 155 mph winds). There have been only seven major Category 3 or stronger hurricanes in the Atlantic after November 1. Part of the reason for the relatively low loss of life for November storms is that they tend to form from extratropical low pressure systems that get cut off from the jet stream and linger over the warm waters of the subtropical Atlantic. These type of systems typically get their start in the middle Atlantic, far from land, and end up recurving northeastwards out to sea. The most recent November named storm, Tropical Storm Sean of 2011, was an example of this type of storm. However, as I noted in the wake of Hurricane Tomas of November 2010 in my blog post, Deadly late-season Atlantic hurricanes growing more frequent, "It used to be that late-season hurricanes were a relative rarity--in the 140-year period from 1851 - 1990, only 30 hurricanes existed in the Atlantic on or after November 1, an average of one late-season hurricane every five years. Only four major Category 3 or stronger late-season hurricanes occurred in those 140 years, and only three Caribbean hurricanes. But in the past twenty years, late-season hurricanes have become 3.5 times more frequent--there have been fifteen late-season hurricanes, and five of those occurred in the Caribbean. Three of these were major hurricanes, and were the three strongest late-season hurricanes on record". Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is an "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". The recent increase in powerful and deadly November hurricanes would seem to support this conclusion.


Figure 2. The strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic in November, Hurricane Lenny, takes aim at the Lesser Antilles on November 17, 1999. Image credit: NOAA.

Typhoon Krosa takes aim at China
Category 2 Typhoon Krosa is headed towards China's Hainan Island after battering the northern end of Luzon, the main Philippines Island, on Thursday. Krosa hit extreme northeast Luzon near 06 UTC (2 am EDT) on October 31, as a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. No injuries or major damage have been reported so far from the storm. Satellite loops show an impressive system with a large eye and plenty of intense thunderstorms. The typhoon will slowly weaken over the weekend as it encounters higher wind shear and cooler waters, before brushing China's Hainan Island as a tropical storm on Sunday.

The GFS and European models predict that the Philippines will see a new tropical storm or typhoon hit the islands on Friday, November 8.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Krosa taken at 05:05 UTC on November 1, 2013. At the time, Krosa was a Category 1 storm with winds of 85 mph. Image credit: NASA.

TD 18-E in Eastern Pacific will bring heavy rains to Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Depression 18-E has spun up south of Baja, Mexico. Satellite loops show that the depression is poorly organized, but has plenty of intense thunderstorms. Heavy rains from TD 18-E will begin affecting the southern Baja Peninsula and portions of Mainland Mexico to its east on Sunday. The 06Z Friday run of the HWRF model predicted that Mainland Mexico near Manzanillo could see 4 - 8 inches of rain from the system. Moisture from the storm will spread northeastwards into Southwest Texas by Tuesday.

New "Tipping Points" episode, "Arctic Permafrost Peril", airs Saturday at 9 pm EDT/8 pm CDT
“Tipping Points”, a landmark 6-part TV series that began last Saturday on The Weather Channel, airs for the third time on Saturday night, November 2, at 9 pm EDT. The new episode, "Arctic Permafrost Peril", goes on an expedition across Alaska to the North Pole to explore the ticking time bomb of the permafrost melt and the release of tons of carbon dioxide and methane. The series is hosted by polar explorer and climate journalist Bernice Notenboom, the first woman to perform the remarkable triple feat of climbing Mt. Everest and walking to the North and South Poles. In each episode, Notenboom heads off to a far corner of the world to find scientists in the field undertaking vital climate research to try to understand how the climate system is changing and how long we have to make significant changes before we reach a tipping point--a point of no return when our climate system will be changed irreversibly.


Figure 4. "Tipping Points" host Bernice Notenboom watches as scientists take permafrost measurements near the Alaska Pipeline.

I'll have a new post by Monday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 760. beell:


it's only a matter of time before the cows come home to roost.


And that's no bull either...
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760. beell
Quoting 758. ricderr:
And we can always count on this to help spin up a storm in the BOC and protect Tampa Bay:



tampa is doomed i say!!!!!....doomed!!!!!....no amount of logic is gonna change that!!!!!


it's only a matter of time before the cows come home to roost.
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Station 42058
NDBC
Location: 14.923N 74.918W
Date: Sat, 02 Nov 2013 19:50:00 UTC
Winds: SSW (210°) at 7.8 kt gusting to 9.7 kt
Significant Wave Height: 4.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ENE (77°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.74 in and falling
Air Temperature: 81.9 F
Water Temperature: 84.9 F



Link

Winds have now switched at the buoy to the SSW as the LLC drifts N
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
And we can always count on this to help spin up a storm in the BOC and protect Tampa Bay:



tampa is doomed i say!!!!!....doomed!!!!!....no amount of logic is gonna change that!!!!!
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 673 Comments: 21633
757. JRRP
HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OVER THE SW HAITI WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WED
AS THE EXPECTED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE N OF HISPANIOLA BY MON
WHEN A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS THE
ISLAND. ALL THIS COUPLED WITH THE SOUTHERN FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WED WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WED. IF THESE SHOWERS TRAIN ACROSS THE E PORTION OF THE
ISLAND...LOCALIZED FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES COULD OCCUR.
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756. beell
Quoting 749. 1900hurricane:

If it feeds me moisture, it is not a trash storm.


It's in the right place and the right time as far as climatology goes. At the tail of a strong front. And at least partially under an upper ridge. Big fat high pressure setting down over the Gulf of Mexico may keep the CONUS out of the hunt.

And we can always count on this to help spin up a storm in the BOC and protect Tampa Bay:


(note to some* graphic is not intended to be serious).

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1012?

Yeah,






yeppers 1012 a cat five widow maker dooming tampa.......
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 673 Comments: 21633
Quoting 753. SFLWeatherman:
Orlando 66 degrees, Vero Beach 77 degrees, West Palm Beach 88. Cooler air is plunging south!


Will it get to Dade... Inferno today.
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Orlando 66 degrees, Vero Beach 77 degrees, West Palm Beach 88. Cooler air is plunging south!
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Quoting 748. GTstormChaserCaleb:
...We move to the UK or where the weather is not a bust. ;)


Last winter was impressive. But the summer was a bust for all kinds of weather.

We hardly got a drop of rain here throughout late June, July, and early August. And quickly went back into drought.

I was hoping to see several severe t-storms during summer like we did one other year, but it just remained quiet throughout most of the summer. It just got hot and sticky. And I just boiled... Waiting for a storm to come.

2013's summer was one of the most disappointing I've seen. The fall was moderately pleasing (rain returned and got some gusty winds, at least).

Last summer was also disappointing, but at least it gave us a few storms in the Atlantic to look at while nothing was happening here.
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Quoting 720. Tazmanian:
duck season no rabbit season no its duck season nop rabbit season duck season fire a way



am huting rabbits heh heh heh


Better hide Whitewabit....

And the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane season seemed like it was over before it started.
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Quoting 747. GTstormChaserCaleb:
If we get a storm the most likely candidate would be a storm like TS Gordon of '94. The other seasons came during active seasons.
I agree! The other Storms did develop at the end of active Hurricane Seasons. A system like Tropical Storm Gordon which did come close to becoming a Hurricane before it hit South Florida would be the type of system we would most likely see.
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Quoting 738. FunnelVortex:


A BOC trash storm at most.

If it feeds me moisture, it is not a trash storm.
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Quoting 746. FunnelVortex:


Yeah, the season is over and done with.

Winter better be more impressive. because if winter is also a bust...
...We move to the UK or where the weather is not a bust. ;)
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8194
Quoting 745. HurriHistory:
The Atlantic Hurricane Season doesn't last until November 30th for nothing. It's still possible for a Tropical Storm or Hurricane to develop somewhere in the Atlantic Basin over the next four weeks. Yes the chances of that happening are slim, very slim but it can still happen if conditions come together in the right way. Remember the Yankee Hurricane which moved from NE to SW and crashed into Miami Florida on November 4, 1935 with 85-MPH winds. Hurricane Kate from 1985, the great Cuba Hurricane of 1932 or even Tropical Storm Gordon from 1994. So don't shut the door yet. It's not over, till it's over!
If we get a storm the most likely candidate would be a storm like TS Gordon of '94. The other seasons came during active seasons.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8194
Quoting 741. LargoFl:
yeah goes into mexico anyway later


Yeah, the season is over and done with.

Winter better be more impressive. because if winter is also a bust...
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The Atlantic Hurricane Season doesn't last until November 30th for nothing. It's still possible for a Tropical Storm or Hurricane to develop somewhere in the Atlantic Basin over the next four weeks. Yes the chances of that happening are slim, very slim but it can still happen if conditions come together in the right way. Remember the Yankee Hurricane which moved from NE to SW and crashed into Miami Florida on November 4, 1935 with 85-MPH winds. Hurricane Kate from 1985, the great Cuba Hurricane of 1932 or even Tropical Storm Gordon from 1994. So don't shut the door yet. It's not over, till it's over!
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so..if the season is over..what ARE we doing here? lol
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38423
Quoting 739. ricderr:
A BOC trash storm at most.






pppsssssstttttt.......read the pressure reading


1012?

Yeah,
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Quoting 704. Patrap:
Krosa


Krosa is sitting in a col, so Krosa could drift erratically for a bit before on steering feature takes over.

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Quoting 738. FunnelVortex:


A BOC trash storm at most.
yeah goes into mexico anyway later
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38423
Hard to believe this time 8 years ago we were already up to Gamma and that we would have Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta yet to follow.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8194
A BOC trash storm at most.






pppsssssstttttt.......read the pressure reading
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 673 Comments: 21633
Quoting 736. LargoFl:
Yep GFS puts a Low in the BOC in 7 days...........


A BOC trash storm at most.
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Next up on the typhoon watch, 99W.


Threat to the Philippines. 12z GFS goes down to 956mb at landfall.
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Yep GFS puts a Low in the BOC in 7 days...........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38423
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38423
Go away shear so I can get my storm!!!!
Member Since: March 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 264
Check out Bay of Campache next Saturday........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38423
gulf blob mixes with the front thurs right over patrap..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38423
ull in western carib does not mean nothing cant develop in a few days
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Sprained my ankle today so I'm stuck in my room. What's going on in weather world today?
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38423
whatever that blob is it mixes with the front the next day by NO..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38423
Quoting 725. LargoFl:
water temps still hot in the carribean...........


but nothing will develop
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38423
water temps still hot in the carribean...........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38423
well thats about it for the front by me, suns starting to come out,wind and rain have gone and it feels Great outside at last..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38423
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38423
Quoting 703. Torito:


Noooooo PATRAP DON'T DO IT!!

Don't participate in Saturday Smackdown!!

IT'S NOT WORTH IT!

lol they got the good drinking stuff where he's at LOL
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38423
I was just thinking of something, in light of what has been an unusually benign hurricane season that is now nearing is merciful end..

I wonder if we will ever see a preseason forecast from Dr. Gray at CSU, from NOAA, the TWC, Joe Bastardi or any of the rest of the gang that goes like this:

"We forecast the upcoming tropical season in the Atlantic Basin to be unusually quiet. Our official outlook calls for a total of 11 named storms, roughly the long term average. Two of these systems will become hurricanes and there will be NO major hurricanes this year. In addition, there is a less than 5% chance of a hurricane making landfall along the US Atlantic or Gulf coasts during this upcoming tropical season."

Can you imagine such a forecast? I cannot imagine it. I can foresee them forecasting a below normal hurricane season due to a strong El Niño perhaps but I just cannot feature ever reading a forecast of NO major hurricanes during any upcoming season. And yet, barring any last minute and highly unlikely developments, that is exactly what happened in this season.
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duck season no rabbit season no its duck season nop rabbit season duck season fire a way



am huting rabbits heh heh heh
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115074
Quoting 717. Torito:


no, it is over on the 30th. :P



no its over now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115074
Does anyone think that either Manuel or Ingrid (or both) will be retired?
The damage in Mexico was nearly $6 billion.
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Quoting 711. Tazmanian:



no its over now


no, it is over on the 30th. :P
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Atlantic Hurricane Season, 2013-2013
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Quoting 712. FunnelVortex:


Is that an upper level low in the Carribean?

Yep. Season is done guys.


Yeah one that's moving out and weakening

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11952
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128240
Quoting 679. LargoFl:
will it feel the weakness between the 2 Highs?.......
Will it even exist, as depicted? Not likely at all. The GEM model is notorious for overdoing cyclogenesis and tropical cyclone doom-like scenarios. Once a forecast model gets entrenched in just such a fringe zone, it is not taken seriously, even if on rare occasions it scores a hit, versus the countless misses. You know what they say about a broken clock being right twice a day..
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Quoting 707. Patrap:


Is that an upper level low in the Carribean?

Yep. Season is done guys.

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Quoting 697. Torito:


No Taz, wait to the 30th to say that. :)



no its over now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115074

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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