Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
Category 2 Typhoon Krosa is battering the northern end of Luzon, the main Philippines Island, after making landfall in extreme northeast Luzon near 06 UTC (2 am EDT) on October 31. Satellite loops show that Krosa's interaction with Luzon has weakened the storm, with the eye no longer visible, and the thunderstorms of the eyewall now warmer. The typhoon should be able to re-intensify once it emerges over the South China Sea on Friday, then weaken to Category 1 strength as it encounters higher wind shear and cooler waters before brushing China's Hainan Island on Sunday. According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Krosa's formation gives the Western Pacific 27 named storms so far in 2013, which is the average number of named storms for an entire year (the Japan Meteorological Agency named two additional storms this year, for a total of 29.) The last time there were more than 27 tropical storms or typhoons in the Western Pacific was in 2004, when there were 32. Krosa is the seventh typhoon of a very active October for typhoons in the Western Pacific. The Western Pacific is now up to an Accumulated Cyclone Energy level about 87% of average for the date, after a very slow first half of typhoon season. The Philippines are likely not through with typhoon season; for several days, the GFS model has been predicting that the islands will see two more named storms, with the first one (97W) passing through the central Philippines on Monday, and a second, potentially stronger storm, arriving on Thursday, November 7.
Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Krosa taken at approximately 02 UTC on October 31, 2013. At the time, Krosa was a Category 1 storm with winds of 90 mph. Image credit: NASA.
97E in Eastern Pacific will bring heavy rains to Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific, Invest 97E is spinning 350 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Satellite loops show that 97E has a modest and increasing area of heavy thunderstorms that are growing more organized. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97E 2-day odds of development of 50%, and 5-day odds of 70%. 97E is moving north-northwest at 5 mph, and will likely move ashore on the Mexican coast near Mazatlan, due east of the tip of the Baja Peninsula, on Sunday night or Monday morning. Heavy rains from 97E will begin affecting the southern Baja Peninsula and portions of Mainland Mexico to its east beginning on Sunday morning. This moisture will spread northeastwards into Southwest Texas by Monday.
Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming five days. The European model is predicting that a large low pressure area will develop in the Central Caribbean late next week, but dry air and high wind shear may interfere with any development of this low. On Friday, I plan on posting a detailed outlook for the rest of the Atlantic hurricane season.
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