Category 2 Typhoon Krosa Hits the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on October 31, 2013

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Category 2 Typhoon Krosa is battering the northern end of Luzon, the main Philippines Island, after making landfall in extreme northeast Luzon near 06 UTC (2 am EDT) on October 31. Satellite loops show that Krosa's interaction with Luzon has weakened the storm, with the eye no longer visible, and the thunderstorms of the eyewall now warmer. The typhoon should be able to re-intensify once it emerges over the South China Sea on Friday, then weaken to Category 1 strength as it encounters higher wind shear and cooler waters before brushing China's Hainan Island on Sunday. According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Krosa's formation gives the Western Pacific 27 named storms so far in 2013, which is the average number of named storms for an entire year (the Japan Meteorological Agency named two additional storms this year, for a total of 29.) The last time there were more than 27 tropical storms or typhoons in the Western Pacific was in 2004, when there were 32. Krosa is the seventh typhoon of a very active October for typhoons in the Western Pacific. The Western Pacific is now up to an Accumulated Cyclone Energy level about 87% of average for the date, after a very slow first half of typhoon season. The Philippines are likely not through with typhoon season; for several days, the GFS model has been predicting that the islands will see two more named storms, with the first one (97W) passing through the central Philippines on Monday, and a second, potentially stronger storm, arriving on Thursday, November 7.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Krosa taken at approximately 02 UTC on October 31, 2013. At the time, Krosa was a Category 1 storm with winds of 90 mph. Image credit: NASA.

97E in Eastern Pacific will bring heavy rains to Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific, Invest 97E is spinning 350 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Satellite loops show that 97E has a modest and increasing area of heavy thunderstorms that are growing more organized. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97E 2-day odds of development of 50%, and 5-day odds of 70%. 97E is moving north-northwest at 5 mph, and will likely move ashore on the Mexican coast near Mazatlan, due east of the tip of the Baja Peninsula, on Sunday night or Monday morning. Heavy rains from 97E will begin affecting the southern Baja Peninsula and portions of Mainland Mexico to its east beginning on Sunday morning. This moisture will spread northeastwards into Southwest Texas by Monday.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming five days. The European model is predicting that a large low pressure area will develop in the Central Caribbean late next week, but dry air and high wind shear may interfere with any development of this low. On Friday, I plan on posting a detailed outlook for the rest of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Jeff Masters

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570. CaribBoy
8:12 PM GMT on November 01, 2013






Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5924
569. hydrus
4:05 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
Quoting 562. kmanislander:


October and November can be especially dangerous for the NW Caribbean. The infamous 1932 hurricane killed over 100 people in our sister island of Cayman Brac. Of course, a lot has changed since then and many who went outdoors during the eye and were subsequently swept away by tidal waves would not get caught that way again.

Weather warnings back then consisted largely of watching the sky and a barometer, if you had one. Very primitive and resulting in massive casualties.

My Mom was a child then and recalls walking in neck deep water with her parents and siblings to the central highland called the bluff to escape the sea.
Many were not so fortunate.

On the Northern side of that island there is no reef and the deep water comes right up to the shore.

Other stories like the family who waited in the upstairs of their home and watched a tiger shark swimming in the living room below sends chills up your spine.
The old timers I grew up with on Captiva and the Everglades spoke of many storms..In a much abbreviated form, they were heartwrenching. The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane being one of the worst...The survivors suffered a nightmare hard to describe..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20487
568. sar2401
3:09 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
Quoting LargoFl:
yes like raymond..all it will do is add some moisture to the next front in texas.

Yep, I just don't get why models are performing so badly this season. I'm not buy some kind of AGW scenario either. Things don't go this bad from long-term climate change in one year.

BTW, I've always found that you've been really good at presenting models and I've never found you to be either a doomcaster or a wishcaster. Sometimes I could do with a few less flood warnings from Mule's Knee, ND, but keep up the good work. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13078
567. barbamz
3:05 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
Reading about the debris from air in Vietnam I first thought that GOCE's end already happenend, but it's still there:

GOCE tracker.

GOCE is a slender, winged ion-driven satellite launched to glide through the upper atmosphere for nearly two years measuring Earth's gravity field with unprecedented precision. GOCE data will also provide a new understanding of tectonic activity that could lead to better forecasts of earthquakes and volcanoes. Scientists expect changes in Earth's interior to show up in the satellite's gravity measurements. GOCE, which stands for the Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer, is the first of six ESA Earth Explorer satellites built to focus on aspects of processes affecting the planet's climate.


Source of the photo: Wiki.

Satellite To Fall To Earth In November (But Don't Panic)
Huffington Post UK | Posted: 01/11/2013 11:34 GMT

The UK Space Agency has sent an email warning that a European satellite will plunge to Earth later this month - and there's no way to know where it's going to hit.

While stating that the risk of the satellite causing a danger to life or property is extremely small, it admitted that the satellite had no means to control its decent.

Since 2009 the GOCE satellite has mapped the fine details of Earth's gravitational field.

Now its time is up, and its path is already set. Instead of hanging around in orbit like so much other space junk, the satellite will instead fall towards the Earth and mostly break up in our atmosphere.

But while most of the hardware will disintegrate, the UK Space Agency said that "some smaller parts are expected to reach Earth’s surface". ...



GOCE has accomplished a very interesting mission:

About GOCE on ESA
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 51 Comments: 5619
566. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:01 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
565. sar2401
3:00 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
Quoting Torito:


Inside the GFS:

18 2 35 29 82
74 26 55 45 51
17 95 35 88 92
45 83 16 81 96
90 96 81 41 56
33 100 58 13 8
74 51 31 39 68
73 30 90 95 97
13 12 3 79 27
92 95 97 44 43
85 97 89 53 67
70 97 75 72 97

Seems legit. :)



Looks like some good lotto numbers...not so good for a tropical storm model. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13078
564. Jedkins01
2:57 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
Quoting 450. Skyepony:
Event into space in Vietnam on Friday, 01 November, 2013 at 05:50 (05:50 AM) UTC.
Description
The Ministry of Defense has ordered an investigation into an explosion in the sky which sent metal pieces raining down on the central province of Binh Thuan last week. Speaking to Thanh Nien on Monday, Col. Pham Van Long, political commissar of the Binh Thuan Military Headquarters, said the ministry's Air Defense Force is studying the metal pieces to learn more about the explosion that happened in Thuan Quy Commune, Ham Thuan Nam District. It happened around noon on Friday with no recorded injuries, but several local people had their house roofs damaged by the flying objects. Ham Thuan Nam District's military headquarters is now storing the metal objects, Long said. Le Cuong, head of Thuan Quy Commune's police division, showed Thanh Nien reporters the storage, saying that local people and agencies have collected more than 50 pieces so far.

As Thanh Nien observed, the pieces are all grey and some are burned. They have different measures and shapes - as thick as 2-3 millimeters, as long as 3 meters, as wide as 70 centimeters, and as heavy as 17 kilograms. Among them is an object that looks like part of a tube with many sections of electrical wires also burned. Nguyen Huu Tuong, principal of Thuan Quy Elementary School, said some objects that hit a garden next to the school were very sharp and heavy. But, "very luckily," they did not fall onto the school's playground where some students were preparing for their afternoon classes, he said. Meanwhile, Pham Thi Lan, a local resident, said her family was having lunch when their house was shaken by the explosion, and then two metal pieces hit and damaged the roof. It was "lucky" that no one was injured, she said. "It was frightening, but our commune was also very lucky," Cuong spoke of the incident. In interviews with Thanh Nien, many residents believed that it was an aircraft explosion. However, the Ham Thuan Nam military headquarters said that no aircraft was present in the Binh Thuan sky areas when the incident happened.

An expert on space debris with the Ministry of Science and Technology told Thanh Nien on condition of anonymity that the pieces must be man-made and their sizes suggested that they came from an object which could be hundreds of times bigger. He also said there is the possibly that they fell from space, most likely from a rocket booster. Used as an assistant to a liftoff, the booster is detached from the rocket and falls away when it is out of fuel, he explained. Another possibility is that the pieces came from defunct satellites, according to the expert. When out of fuel, a satellite falls back to the earth, and although it burns up while flying through the earth's atmosphere, there is a certain amount of its broken pieces that fall to the land or the sea, he said. The US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) estimated that there are more than 150 million defunct man-made objects in orbit about the earth, or orbital debris, including 500,000 particles between 1-10 centimeters in diameter and over 21,000 larger than 10 centimeters. Only countries with developed space technology like the US, Japan and Russia are able to track the debris and issue warnings when they are flying towards the earth, the expert said. However, he also said that although space junk falls to earth every day, so far no serious accident has been recorded.


Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7271
563. sar2401
2:56 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
Quoting VR46L:


Yeah I know , But at least its an interesting looking feature compared to CMC FUJI dances @ 240 hrs that have zip chance of happening in November . But I am aware parts of Florida could do with a rainmaker and this maybe a chance of one !

That would be nice but, so far, all the real rain associated with this front is staying offshore and no one is getting more than light rain. If it holds together, South Florida may have a chance for some rain, but the rest of us will just get enough to settle the dust. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13078
562. kmanislander
2:55 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
Quoting 546. hydrus:
Good morning K-Man. Your neck of the woods has produced a few November hurricanes...some very deadly.


October and November can be especially dangerous for the NW Caribbean. The infamous 1932 hurricane killed over 100 people in our sister island of Cayman Brac. Of course, a lot has changed since then and many who went outdoors during the eye and were subsequently swept away by tidal waves would not get caught that way again.

Weather warnings back then consisted largely of watching the sky and a barometer, if you had one. Very primitive and resulting in massive casualties.

My Mom was a child then and recalls walking in neck deep water with her parents and siblings to the central highland called the bluff to escape the sea.
Many were not so fortunate.

On the Northern side of that island there is no reef and the deep water comes right up to the shore.

Other stories like the family who waited in the upstairs of their home and watched a tiger shark swimming in the living room below sends chills up your spine.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15709
561. Jedkins01
2:54 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
Quoting 435. Skyepony:
29W KROSA looking donut like this morning..



Apparently this is the year for almost annular cyclones in the West Pacific. There have been an awful lot of them considering they are normally even more there than in the Atlantic.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7271
559. sar2401
2:53 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
Quoting hydrus:
Actually, November can be rather active with tornadoes..

http://www.ustornadoes.com/wp-content/uploads/201 2/11/november_f4-ef4_tornadoes_by_state.gif

November features a slight bump in cumulative tornadoes compared to October, though the current averages for the month are less than those in October. The difference in overall numbers is largely influenced by a few outbreaks that set a few years well ahead of the typical November. As with October, part of a second peak sometimes occurs during this portion of the year.

Looking at total tornadoes by day, a considerable amount of variability is shown. Like the monthly average going down despite November having more tornadoes than October, the tornado days in November are down as well. The current climatological period (1991-2010) shows that just under 1/4 of all days in November can be expected to feature a tornado. This is higher than the winter months to come, but lower than every other month in the year.

Yes, while many eyes are on the tropics, we in non-coastal Alabama start looking at continental GFS runs for signs of severe weather outbreaks. we tend to be number one in tornado outbreak in November, although the graphs are slightly misleading since the severe thunderstorms and straight line winds often cause as much damage as an EF-1 tornado. It's very rare for us to have tornadoes or severe storms during the summer, but fall brings a large uptick, and catches many folks unaware. By March, almost everyone is used to the sirens going off, but not so much in November.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13078
558. barbamz
2:50 PM GMT on November 01, 2013

Hello over there with the large eye of Krosa.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 51 Comments: 5619
557. VR46L
2:50 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
Quoting 543. sar2401:

I think there's way too much shear as well as another front coming Saturday that would prevent that blob from doing much. Without some good upper level high pressure for the blob to hide under, I don't think it has a long life ahead of it.


Yeah I know , But at least its an interesting looking feature compared to CMC FUJI dances @ 240 hrs that have zip chance of happening in November . But I am aware parts of Florida could do with a rainmaker and this maybe a chance of one !
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6820
556. Torito
2:49 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
Quoting 552. sar2401:

Once again, the models are completely psychotic. I will bet my house that whatever TD-18 becomes, it will never end up near Chicago. As the season has progressed, I've become more and more convinced that models are being fed by a random number generator. :-)


Inside the GFS:

18 2 35 29 82
74 26 55 45 51
17 95 35 88 92
45 83 16 81 96
90 96 81 41 56
33 100 58 13 8
74 51 31 39 68
73 30 90 95 97
13 12 3 79 27
92 95 97 44 43
85 97 89 53 67
70 97 75 72 97

Seems legit. :)


Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
555. LargoFl
2:45 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
Quoting 552. sar2401:

Once again, the models are completely psychotic. I will bet my house that whatever TD-18 becomes, it will never end up near Chicago. As the season has progressed, I've become more and more convinced that models are being fed by a random number generator. :-)
yes like raymond..all it will do is add some moisture to the next front in texas.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36847
554. LargoFl
2:44 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
Quoting 549. ricderr:
well as we always did say possible..we all know models change run to run,but when they stay run for run we must at the very least..start being alert..that trough below PR WAS supposed to go into the gulf as Gem was predicting but the new data fed into it said this current front would block it..so the new run changed..now it says the low will stay by miami..we'll see what it says in 2-3 days time..nam and navy are noticing it also..but time will tell..no wishcasting at all here..just watching runs..


but largo...you've always been responsible with your posts and a wait and see attitude....when i lived in florida....i watched everything like a hawk....however...those that grandstand as if a ten day model run is certainty....who misconstrue two opposing models as if there is agreement...who can't understand the dynamics of a model run...i don't have a problem with that for the mere fact most that read it laugh....and if you follow that as opposed to NHC forecasts well...shame on them....it bothers me to a point that it's become so intrusive that to read the opinions of some learned people that used to post here i now have to check their facebook pages..so it's my choice to give my position in a comedic style
ok i understand..yesterday it seemed you were jumping all over me post after post..I live on the gulf coast..and when a model run after run says a big storm in the gulf is going to go into florida I worry..and I post about it yes..I am the one in danger..so yes the model changed..and Now I can relax ..but people out of harms way need'nt blast posters who ARE in harms way for posting about a storm...i too..dont believe models out past 3-4 days..but..I watch the runs just the same ..no wishcasting at all on my part..i dont Want a storm coming into florida..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36847
553. Patrap
2:43 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
529.

As Columbia showed us one thing, even Paper can survives in the right conditions, if shielded and comes apart post Mach 1,..as Helmets, a Flight Plan,Tapes and other cloth items did survive the re-entry.

About 45 percent of the crew module was recovered near Hemphill, Texas, including pieces of the forward and aft main bulkheads, the frames from the forward cockpit windows, the crew airlock, and all of the hatches. About three quarters of the flight deck instrument panels were found, along with 80 percent of the mid-deck floor panels and numerous parts from the crew's seats and attached safety equipment. Wreckage from the ship's galley was recovered, along with parts of the toilet, bailout equipment, tools, one of the crew's sleeping compartments and items that had been stored in middeck lockers. Remarkably, the wristwatch Dave Brown had carried aloft as a belated birthday present for Kennedy engineer Ann Micklos was found, its faceplate missing and its hands frozen at 9:06 a.m.

Plus the milling on the metal is well, typical of the lightweight Honeycombed modular design often seen in spacecraft.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
552. sar2401
2:42 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
Quoting LargoFl:

Once again, the models are completely psychotic. I will bet my house that whatever TD-18 becomes, it will never end up near Chicago. As the season has progressed, I've become more and more convinced that models are being fed by a random number generator. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13078
551. LargoFl
2:39 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
Quoting 547. ncstorm:


not that I am aware of..just a windy and cloudy here..

November is not a kind month to NC with severe weather..I always remember the tornado that struck close to my area in November of 2006 in Reigelwood, NC. Killed 9 people, injuring over 20 people. It happened when kids were standing at the bus stop..grim reminder of the power of nature..

Severe Weather Event in 2006

On November 16, 2006 at 6:29 am EST, a tornado warning had been issued for eastern Columbus County, and prior to that a severe thunderstorm warning was issued for the same area at 6:21 am. At 6:37, an F3 tornado struck a mobile home park and killed eight people, including two children, Danny Jacobs, 6 and Miguel Martinez, 13. Twenty people were injured. The tornado was a part of a 3-day long tornado outbreak in the south where four other deaths were reported. Riegelwood was one of the hardest hit areas.
Path of the Riegelwood Tornado

On Friday, November 17, 2006 an NOAA National Weather Service storm survey team assessed the tornado damage in Riegelwood and rated it at F3 on the Fujita scale for nearly a mile in Riegelwood, with winds approaching 200 mph (320 km/h). The maximum width of the tornado was 300 yards where the F3 damage occurred. The rest of the 7 mile (11 km) damage path was narrow, less than a 100 yards wide, and rated at F1 with winds less than 100 mph extending north across Columbus County into western Pender County.
Composite Radar Reflectivity Image of the Supercell Thunderstorm that spawned the Riegelwood, NC Tornado

The Columbus County sheriff reported thirty homes destroyed in the F3 damage area, and another three structures were damaged in Pender County just west of Currie.





gee tornado's scare me..so much destruction in such a short time span..there have been some already with this front..hope no more.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36847
550. EyEtoEyE
2:38 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
Quoting 511. ricderr:
there's nothing like the smell of wishcasting in the morning



. Are they wishcasting ? Very doubtful !
Member Since: July 6, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 460
549. ricderr
2:38 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
well as we always did say possible..we all know models change run to run,but when they stay run for run we must at the very least..start being alert..that trough below PR WAS supposed to go into the gulf as Gem was predicting but the new data fed into it said this current front would block it..so the new run changed..now it says the low will stay by miami..we'll see what it says in 2-3 days time..nam and navy are noticing it also..but time will tell..no wishcasting at all here..just watching runs..


but largo...you've always been responsible with your posts and a wait and see attitude....when i lived in florida....i watched everything like a hawk....however...those that grandstand as if a ten day model run is certainty....who misconstrue two opposing models as if there is agreement...who can't understand the dynamics of a model run...i don't have a problem with that for the mere fact most that read it laugh....and if you follow that as opposed to NHC forecasts well...shame on them....it bothers me to a point that it's become so intrusive that to read the opinions of some learned people that used to post here i now have to check their facebook pages..so it's my choice to give my position in a comedic style
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 670 Comments: 21388
548. LargoFl
2:37 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WELL OFFSHORE WILL ELEVATE SEAS
TO 5 TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET INTO TONIGHT. CHOPPY SHORT PERIOD SEAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED NEAR
SHORE TODAY. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTING STORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN PENINSULA LATE
TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS FROM NORTHERN
LAKE TO VOLUSIA COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS TO 30 TO 40 MPH
AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHTNING STORMS SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL ELEVATE WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC WATERS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE NORTHEAST TO EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND REMAIN STRONG...WITH BUILDING SEAS...ROUGH SURF AND WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT THE COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND IS NOT EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

$$

VOLKMER
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36847
547. ncstorm
2:37 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
Quoting 537. LargoFl:
lol..any warnings by you yet?..northeast has alot of them up there this morning


not that I am aware of..just a windy and cloudy here..

November is not a kind month to NC with severe weather..I always remember the tornado that struck close to my area in November of 2006 in Reigelwood, NC. Killed 8 people, injuring over 20 people. It happened when kids were standing at the bus stop..grim reminder of the power of nature..

Severe Weather Event in 2006

On November 16, 2006 at 6:29 am EST, a tornado warning had been issued for eastern Columbus County, and prior to that a severe thunderstorm warning was issued for the same area at 6:21 am. At 6:37, an F3 tornado struck a mobile home park and killed eight people, including two children, Danny Jacobs, 6 and Miguel Martinez, 13. Twenty people were injured. The tornado was a part of a 3-day long tornado outbreak in the south where four other deaths were reported. Riegelwood was one of the hardest hit areas.
Path of the Riegelwood Tornado

On Friday, November 17, 2006 an NOAA National Weather Service storm survey team assessed the tornado damage in Riegelwood and rated it at F3 on the Fujita scale for nearly a mile in Riegelwood, with winds approaching 200 mph (320 km/h). The maximum width of the tornado was 300 yards where the F3 damage occurred. The rest of the 7 mile (11 km) damage path was narrow, less than a 100 yards wide, and rated at F1 with winds less than 100 mph extending north across Columbus County into western Pender County.
Composite Radar Reflectivity Image of the Supercell Thunderstorm that spawned the Riegelwood, NC Tornado

The Columbus County sheriff reported thirty homes destroyed in the F3 damage area, and another three structures were damaged in Pender County just west of Currie.





Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14412
546. hydrus
2:37 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
Quoting 541. kmanislander:
Good morning all

I see that all eyes are on the surface trough in the Eastern Caribbean. Surface pressure in that region is still high at 1012 mbs as per the buoy near 15 N and 67 W

Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.88 in

The transition from trough to a well defined surface low would normally take several days this time of year so if anything does spin up it won't be overnight. The time frames from the models are really close in though which does add some credence that this may actually happen this time but the proof is in the pudding.

Wait and watch
Good morning K-Man. Your neck of the woods has produced a few November hurricanes...some very deadly.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20487
545. Torito
2:36 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
Quoting 544. hydrus:
Thanks..November is weird where weather is concerned..


Yea, I see it now.
They made an error with the height of September though.


Better one.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
544. hydrus
2:35 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
Quoting 538. Torito:


Nice data. :)
Thanks..November is weird where weather is concerned..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20487
543. sar2401
2:35 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
Quoting VR46L:
Actually surprised this is not getting a little commentary




I think there's way too much shear as well as another front coming Saturday that would prevent that blob from doing much. Without some good upper level high pressure for the blob to hide under, I don't think it has a long life ahead of it.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13078
542. Torito
2:35 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
Quoting 539. hydrus:


Significant tornadoes, or those rated F2/EF-2+, have accounted for 29.3% of November tornadoes during the 1950-2011 period and they have caused 93% of the deaths. The ratio of strong tornadoes to all tornadoes continues to rise from previous months. This is partly because of higher-population impact and the fact that events during the changing seasons tend to have more available energy to them than mid-summer storms, even if big outbreaks are rarer in the fall than spring.

The deadliest tornado in November occurred on the 6th in 2005 when an F3 traveled 41 miles from Kentucky into Indiana and through parts of Evansville, Newburgh and Boonville. 24 were killed by this tornado.

o.0
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
541. kmanislander
2:34 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
Good morning all

I see that all eyes are on the surface trough in the Eastern Caribbean. Surface pressure in that region is still high at 1012 mbs as per the buoy near 15 N and 67 W

Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.88 in

The transition from trough to a well defined surface low would normally take several days this time of year so if anything does spin up it won't be overnight. The time frames from the models are really close in though which does add some credence that this may actually happen this time but the proof is in the pudding.

Wait and watch
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15709
540. LargoFl
2:34 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36847
539. hydrus
2:34 PM GMT on November 01, 2013


Significant tornadoes, or those rated F2/EF-2+, have accounted for 29.3% of November tornadoes during the 1950-2011 period and they have caused 93% of the deaths. The ratio of strong tornadoes to all tornadoes continues to rise from previous months. This is partly because of higher-population impact and the fact that events during the changing seasons tend to have more available energy to them than mid-summer storms, even if big outbreaks are rarer in the fall than spring.

The deadliest tornado in November occurred on the 6th in 2005 when an F3 traveled 41 miles from Kentucky into Indiana and through parts of Evansville, Newburgh and Boonville. 24 were killed by this tornado.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20487
538. Torito
2:32 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
Quoting 535. hydrus:
Actually, November can be rather active with tornadoes..

http://www.ustornadoes.com/wp-content/uploads/201 2/11/november_f4-ef4_tornadoes_by_state.gif

November features a slight bump in cumulative tornadoes compared to October, though the current averages for the month are less than those in October. The difference in overall numbers is largely influenced by a few outbreaks that set a few years well ahead of the typical November. As with October, part of a second peak sometimes occurs during this portion of the year.

Looking at total tornadoes by day, a considerable amount of variability is shown. Like the monthly average going down despite November having more tornadoes than October, the tornado days in November are down as well. The current climatological period (1991-2010) shows that just under 1/4 of all days in November can be expected to feature a tornado. This is higher than the winter months to come, but lower than every other month in the year.


Nice data. :)
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
537. LargoFl
2:31 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
Quoting 528. ncstorm:
LOL..Largo bringing the heat this morning..
lol..any warnings by you yet?..northeast has alot of them up there this morning
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36847
536. Torito
2:31 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
Carrib has some vorticity going now.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
535. hydrus
2:31 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
Quoting 487. Torito:


Yea, it could mean tornadoes in the month of November, which is uncommon in history to see.
Actually, November can be rather active with tornadoes..

http://www.ustornadoes.com/wp-content/uploads/201 2/11/november_f4-ef4_tornadoes_by_state.gif

November features a slight bump in cumulative tornadoes compared to October, though the current averages for the month are less than those in October. The difference in overall numbers is largely influenced by a few outbreaks that set a few years well ahead of the typical November. As with October, part of a second peak sometimes occurs during this portion of the year.

Looking at total tornadoes by day, a considerable amount of variability is shown. Like the monthly average going down despite November having more tornadoes than October, the tornado days in November are down as well. The current climatological period (1991-2010) shows that just under 1/4 of all days in November can be expected to feature a tornado. This is higher than the winter months to come, but lower than every other month in the year.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20487
534. Torito
2:29 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
The same is happening in other areas as well.





Shoot, the tropical Atlantic is warming instead of cooling. xD



Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
533. sar2401
2:28 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
Quoting Torito:


Yea, it could mean tornadoes in the month of November, which is uncommon in history to see.

Actually, November begins our secondary severe weather period of November through January in Alabama, and severe thunderstorms are not uncommon. we need to have much colder air coming in from Plains to trigger it off though, and it seems as if the Plains are remaining above normal.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13078
532. LargoFl
2:28 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
Quoting 526. ricderr:
now i understand why you lost your hair..too much negativity.


bald by choice and a razor...but thanx for noticing....


i enjoy a good wishcast...and i understand a good wishcast is fun to do....


but notice with me...the greatest wishcasters of even three days ago...are now inserting "may" and "might" into their posts
well as we always did say possible..we all know models change run to run,but when they stay run for run we must at the very least..start being alert..that trough below PR WAS supposed to go into the gulf as Gem was predicting but the new data fed into it said this current front would block it..so the new run changed..now it says the low will stay by miami..we'll see what it says in 2-3 days time..nam and navy are noticing it also..but time will tell..no wishcasting at all here..just watching runs..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36847
531. Torito
2:26 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
As suspected, the lack of systems in the CARRIB has caused the SST in that area to refuse to drop to normal levels.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
530. ricderr
2:26 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
Actually surprised this is not getting a little commentary



dammit jim....a cat 5 sprung up right under our nose

Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 670 Comments: 21388
529. Neapolitan
2:25 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
Quoting 482. Patrap:


Someone may want to check the de-orbit time, and parameters for the footprint Zone,if any was posted.

The ISS Orbits at a 51.6 Degrees to the equator so....






Cygnus Reentry Complete

Cygnus Reentry Complete

Orbital Sciences Corp. of Dulles, Va., has confirmed its Cygnus spacecraft has completed its destructive reentry in Earth's atmosphere as planned this afternoon. Cygnus was released from the International Space Station at 7:31 a.m. EDT on Tuesday, Oct. 22, following a 23-day stay on a demonstration cargo resupply mission. The spacecraft delivered about 1,300 pounds (589 kilograms) of cargo, including food, clothing and student experiments. Prior to its departure, Cygnus was loaded with items no longer needed aboard the station.
Cygnus was launched on Orbital's Antares rocket on Sept. 18 from the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport Pad-0A at NASA's Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia.
Orbital built and tested its Antares rocket and Cygnus spacecraft under NASA's Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) Program. NASA initiatives, such as COTS, are helping to develop a robust U.S. commercial space transportation industry with the goal of achieving safe, reliable and cost-effective transportation to and from low-Earth orbit to meet the needs of both commercial and government customers.
For more information about Orbital's demonstration cargo resupply mission and the International Space Station, visit:

http://www.nasa.gov/station
It's possible, I suppose. But Cygnus re-entered the atmosphere and burned up over the open Pacific east of New Zealand, according to this article. And at any rate, those images from the second link I provided show, among other things, a rather large piece of nearly intact, relatively thin sheet metal of the type and size that would likely not have survived reentry intact. Nah, I still go with the airplane theory... ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13455
528. ncstorm
2:25 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
LOL..Largo bringing the heat this morning..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14412
527. Torito
2:24 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
Quoting 512. sebastianflorida:
Yes


TCFP suggests a minimal chance of formation within the next day or two for that area.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
526. ricderr
2:24 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
now i understand why you lost your hair..too much negativity.


bald by choice and a razor...but thanx for noticing....


i enjoy a good wishcast...and i understand a good wishcast is fun to do....


but notice with me...the greatest wishcasters of even three days ago...are now inserting "may" and "might" into their posts
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 670 Comments: 21388
525. Torito
2:22 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
98W does not even have a closed COC yet.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
524. LargoFl
2:21 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36847
523. Torito
2:21 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
Krosa has some dark orange colored winds in the wind field, suggesting that it is nearing cat 2 status.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
522. LargoFl
2:20 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
Quoting 521. VR46L:
Actually surprised this is not getting a little commentary



yes we here must always watch the tail ends of fronts in the gulf this time of year huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36847
521. VR46L
2:19 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
Actually surprised this is not getting a little commentary



Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6820
520. LargoFl
2:18 PM GMT on November 01, 2013
Quoting 511. ricderr:
there's nothing like the smell of wishcasting in the morning



now i understand why you lost your hair..too much negativity.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36847

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.