Five Things We Learned From Hurricane Sandy

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:28 PM GMT on October 29, 2013

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1) Hurricane Sandy was truly astounding in its size and power. At its peak size, twenty hours before landfall, Sandy had tropical storm-force winds that covered an area nearly one-fifth the area of the contiguous United States. Sandy's area of ocean with twelve-foot seas peaked at 1.4 million square miles--nearly one-half the area of the contiguous United States, or 1% of Earth's total ocean area. Most incredibly, ten hours before landfall (9:30 am EDT October 29), the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969, and equivalent to five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been larger. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart. Over 130 fatalities were reported and over 8.5 million customers lost power--the second largest weather-related power outage in U.S. history, behind the 10 million that lost power during the Blizzard of 1993. Damage from Sandy is estimated at $65 billion, making it the second most expensive weather-related disaster in world history, behind Hurricane Katrina of 2005.


Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

2) NHC's procedures for issuing warnings need improvement. There was plenty of confusion on Sandy's storm surge risk. A post-Sandy federal review of the NWS’ performance found that the surge forecasts were remarkably accurate, but were not communicated in ways that made it easy for officials and the public to understand. NOAA has now set a target date of 2015 to implement explicit storm surge watches and warnings, something they have been working toward for several years. Experimental inundation graphics will come in 2014. It's critical that we do a better job with communicating storm surge risk; storm surge is the phenomenon that presents the greatest U.S. weather-related threat for a massive loss of life in a single day, and was responsible for the largest fraction of direct deaths attributed to Sandy.

Sandy was technically not a hurricane at landfall, it was a "post-tropical cyclone," and NHC opted to handle the warnings using "Hurricane-force wind warnings." Such technicalities are often lost on the public, causing concern that the public may have been under-warned--though there's no evidence that fewer people evacuated from Sandy because of this issue, according to Florida State University researcher Dr. Jay Baker. The NWS and NHC now have the option to keep hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings in place for post-tropical cyclones to avoid such confusion in the future. TWC hurricane specialist Bryan Norcross had this to say in his Sandy 1-year anniversary blog post: The meteorologists don’t want to hear it, and I don’t like it either, but the truth is, the quality of the meteorology is so far ahead of the quality of threat communications in the U.S. that progress in forecasting is becoming less and less relevant. Andrew Freedman at Climate Central has a detailed look at the communication problems with Sandy's forecast.


Figure 2. Hurricane Sandy’s winds on October 28, 2012, when Sandy was a Category 1 hurricane with top winds of 75 mph (this ocean surface wind data is from a radar scatterometer on the Indian Space Research Organization’s (ISRO) Oceansat-2.) Image credit: NASA.

3) The European ECMWF weather forecast model is better than the U.S. GFS model. The superior performance of the European model for long-range forecasts of Sandy led for calls to improve computer model forecasts in the U.S. NOAA's National Center for Environmental Prediction has significantly upgraded the computer power used to make forecasts since Sandy, but it will be difficult for the U.S. to catch up to the Europeans, as wunderground's climate change blogger, Dr. Ricky Rood, explained in an article for the Washington Post.


Figure 3.The Battery Park Underpass during Hurricane Sandy, October 30, 2012 (top) and one year later (bottom, October 16, 2013.) Image credit: Natan Dvir/Polaris. An impressive set of 148 before-and-after Sandy photos taken from identical locations one year apart have been put together by TWC.

4) Arctic sea ice loss due to global warming may have made Sandy's unusual track more likely. Sandy took the most perpendicular track into the Northeast U.S. coast of any tropical cyclone in the historical record (Hall and Sobel, 2013.) Using historical climate data, these scientists estimated that the return period of a Category 1 or stronger storm hitting New Jersey at such an odd angle was 1-in-700-years. The 2012 Arctic sea ice melt season was extreme, with sea ice extent hitting an all-time record low just weeks before Sandy hit. Could sea ice loss have contributed to the blocking ridge that steered Sandy into New Jersey? A paper published in August 2013 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences by Elizabeth Barnes of Colorado State and co-authors, "Model projections of atmospheric steering of Sandy-like superstorms", argues that our best climate models project we should see a decrease in the type of steering patterns that brought Sandy to the coast at such an unusual angle. However, as I discussed in an April 2013 post, Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns, three studies published in the past year have found that the jet stream has been getting stuck in unusually strong blocking patterns in recent years. These studies found that the recent record decline in Arctic sea ice could be responsible, since this heats up the pole, altering the Equator-to-pole temperature difference, forcing the jet stream to slow down, meander, and get stuck in large loops. The author of one of the new studies, Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers, had this say at Andy Revkin's Dot Earth blog: "While it’s impossible to say how this scenario might have unfolded if sea-ice had been as extensive as it was in the 1980s, the situation at hand is completely consistent with what I’d expect to see happen more often as a result of unabated warming and especially the amplification of that warming in the Arctic."


Figure 4. Tracks of all tropical storms and hurricanes to hit Southern New Jersey, 1851 - 2012. Hurricane Sandy had a track unprecedented in the historical record. Image created by TWC's Stu Ostro using data from NOAA/CSC.

5) There may be more storms like Sandy in the future. The Atlantic hurricane season is getting longer, and ocean temperatures are warming. This increases the odds that we will see more hurricanes in October making it far to north near New England, where they can potentially get entangled with extratropical fall storms. Furthermore, dangerous part-hurricane, part extratropical hybrid storms like Hurricane Sandy are expected to be an increasing threat for Western Europe by the end of the century due to global warming, said a team of scientists led by Reindert J. Haarsma of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. In a paper called "More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming", published in April 2013 in Geophysical Research Letters, the researchers described the results from runs of a high-resolution (25 km grid spacing) climate model based on the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) numerical weather prediction model. The model predicts that the breeding ground for Atlantic hurricanes will shift approximately 700 miles eastwards as the oceans warm this century. Hurricanes which form farther to the east can spend more time over warm tropical waters before turning north and northeast towards Europe, increasing the odds that these storms will have hurricane-force winds upon arrival in Europe. The researchers concluded that "tropical cyclones will increase the probability of present-day extreme events over the North Sea and the Gulf of Biscay with a factor of 5 and 25 respectively, with far reaching consequences especially for coastal safety."

Sandy links
Colorful 2-D and 3-D model animations of Sandy from Bob Henson of UCAR.

Colorful 5-day animation of Sandy's winds from NASA (Scroll down to third video, 850 mb level.) 

Twelve strange weather features of Superstorm Sandy from Seth Borenstein of AP.

Scientific American has an interesting storm surge simulation video of the flooding of Hoboken, NJ, showing a highly detailed look at how the surge entered the city (2nd video on page.) Animations were sone from modeling by Philip Orton and colleagues at the Stevens Institute of Technology.

PBS' NOVA series did an excellent job looking at the aftermath of Sandy in the their 1-hour show, Megastorm Aftermath, which aired on October 8.


Video 1. ‪After Sandy: Changes and Choices‬. Video produced by the Climate.gov team in cooperation with climate and Earth scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and other agencies and institutions.

Later today, wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt will have the latest figures from the destructive storm named "Christian" that hit Northern Europe, in his blog. According to Dr. Michael Theusner of the German climate museum Klimahaus, a wind gust of 119 mph (191 kph) was recorded on the island of Heligoland, Germany by the weather station of Germany’s biggest private weather company. If verified, this would be the highest wind gust ever recorded at low elevation in Germany. 

I'll have a new post by Thursday.


Jeff Masters

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1168. LesBonsTemps
1:44 AM GMT on November 06, 2013
Currently in Nha Trang, Vietnam, on the South China sea coast about 200 miles NE of Saigon (Ho Chi Minh City). Brief heavy rain moved through this morning, associated with the remnants of Krosa, enough to temporarily flood some streets to about one foot due problem of trash in drains. Now sprinkling (current time is 8.45 a.m. Wednesday) but expecting one more round of heavier rain to last much of the remainder of the day. That should give us about 48 hours of relatively rain-free weather before Haiyan. Considering removing to Saigon on Friday, depending.
Member Since: August 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 150
1167. Andrebrooks
3:17 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
Quoting 1166. wunderkidcayman:

Yes I know dude what wrong with ya. ya take me fa a fool do ya !!

I wasn't taking that CV islands spin fa real it was just a wee joke
Link
New Jeff Masters blog.
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 29 Comments: 991
1166. wunderkidcayman
3:15 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
Quoting 1163. Sfloridacat5:


This time of year it's almost impossible for a system of any strength to make it across the Atlantic without being tore apart or pulled north and out to sea. It could happen, but the chance is very small.

The best chance would be a home grown system from the tail end of a front or a tropical low in the Southern Caribbean.

Yes I know dude what wrong with ya. ya take me fa a fool do ya !!

I wasn't taking that CV islands spin fa real it was just a wee joke
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10852
1165. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:55 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1164. Torito
2:54 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
97E now has a closed COC.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1163. Sfloridacat5
2:52 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
Quoting 1153. wunderkidcayman:
We all should be looking in the Atlantic for storms as well like this one I think this should be a TD now




And Cayman and Cuba


This time of year it's almost impossible for a system of any strength to make it across the Atlantic without being tore apart or pulled north and out to sea. It could happen, but the chance is very small.

The best chance would be a home grown system from the tail end of a front or a tropical low in the Southern Caribbean.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5886
1162. catadjster
2:50 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
OK...so now that it's over it's OK to call it a hurricane. The politics of storms and weather... as an insurance adjuster, we get paid based on what the storm is termed, TS, Hurricane, and category. Since the insurance companies must pay more for a named Hurricane, rather than a storm, this was actually called a Superstorm...Superstorm Sandy. And hence all the adjusters got screwed, and the insurance companies saved money. So now it's OK to call it a hurricane...

Whether it's global warming, or naming storms, or rise in sea levels, it is really political. And I thought it was just weather! That's what it should be, but since there is money in it, it's become political...
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
1161. Torito
2:49 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1160. Torito
2:46 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED
ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THE LOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1159. wunderkidcayman
2:45 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
Quoting 1154. Torito:


Naa, it looks like an invest. :P

Either way it's still good looking despite loosing some convection overnight
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10852
1158. wunderkidcayman
2:43 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
Quoting 1148. VR46L:



Post Image of Caribbean WV showing desert like Conditions <<<<<<<<<<<<&l t;<<<<<<<< Runs away

Yep dry air running away

Quoting 1149. StormWx:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 31 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FIVE DAYS.

And more blue <26 degree celsius which is the threshold for cyclones, creeps into the Gulf. Even if the shear lowers which is hard to even forecast, any system will have to deal with cool water temps.



It's going to be in the Caribbean for most of its life and where it will become its strongest weaken as it gets into gulf makes landfall in Fl and become merged in cold front(becomes extratropical)
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10852
1157. Torito
2:43 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
Quoting 1156. VR46L:



LMAO!!!!


:D
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1156. VR46L
2:42 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
Quoting 1150. Torito:




Like that?^



LMAO!!!!
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6797
1155. Torito
2:41 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
Krosa just lost its eye..... That had to hurt.... :P


Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1154. Torito
2:39 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
Quoting 1153. wunderkidcayman:
We all should be looking in the Atlantic for storms as well like this one I think this should be a TD now




And Cayman and Cuba


Naa, it looks like an invest. :P
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1153. wunderkidcayman
2:38 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
We all should be looking in the Atlantic for storms as well like this one I think this should be a TD now



Quoting 1147. StormWx:


Cool! So shear is gonna be low, and a nice big pulse of MJO! Sounds like a recipe for disaster for Florida! Ugh, this is not good Scott!

And Cayman and Cuba
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10852
1152. Torito
2:38 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
Quoting 1149. StormWx:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 31 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FIVE DAYS.

And more blue <26 degree celsius which is the threshold for cyclones, creeps into the Gulf. Even if the shear lowers which is hard to even forecast, any system will have to deal with cool water temps.



That's where the subtropical systems come in, bro.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1151. ricderr
2:38 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
Post Image of Caribbean WV showing desert like Conditions <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< Runs away




time to tar and feather vr...LMAO
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 670 Comments: 21298
1150. Torito
2:37 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
Quoting 1148. VR46L:



Post Image of Caribbean WV showing desert like Conditions <<<<<<<<<<<<&l t;<<<<<<<< Runs away




Like that?^
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1149. StormWx
2:37 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 31 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FIVE DAYS.

And more blue <26 degree celsius which is the threshold for cyclones, creeps into the Gulf. Even if the shear lowers which is hard to even forecast, any system will have to deal with cool water temps.

Member Since: July 10, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 892
1148. VR46L
2:36 PM GMT on October 31, 2013



Post Image of Caribbean WV showing desert like Conditions <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< Runs away
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6797
1147. StormWx
2:34 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


That's today shear is expected to relax in 5 days. Infact wind shear less than 10knts expected early to mid next week in the Caribbean. So try again!


Cool! So shear is gonna be low, and a nice big pulse of MJO! Sounds like a recipe for disaster for Florida! Ugh, this is not good Scott!
Member Since: July 10, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 892
1146. JNTenne
2:33 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
Quoting 1123. ricderr:
and once again we're giving perfect credence to models that are 7 days out....sad...very sad
"Malo nodo, malus quærendus cuneus"
Member Since: May 21, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 558
1145. ILwthrfan
2:33 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
Quoting 1139. StormTrackerScott:


Seasurface temps are still near 80 here along E C FL which is way above normal for now going into early November.


Yes, direct result from the lack of tropical activity and that defining trough that clears out the last of the deep water heat. Winter should be fun for those along the Coast this season.
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1434
1143. StormTrackerScott
2:31 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
Quoting 1137. RitaEvac:












Nice rain event for you Rita!
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2227
1142. wunderkidcayman
2:31 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
Quoting 1136. ILwthrfan:


This is true Taz, but how many times have we seen something scrape up at the end of the tail end of the season from the Caribbean? Climatology time of the season favors these things, more times that not ;). One thing is for certain. Florida and the East Coast gonna get wet. Strong front, ample moisture, whether anything organizes tropical remains to be seen.

Lol
If it happens I can't wait to yell it in TAZ face lol






TAZ!!!! Lol just pulling your leg
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10852
1141. ILwthrfan
2:31 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
Quoting 1133. ricderr:
ILwrth...once again...i'm not discounting that we will not see a tropical system before the end of season.. that would be foolish.....but just as foolish..is someone who stakes their claim to a long range model...not to mention that when these outlying models first picked up on this....we would be looking at progression starting now...but that is not the case...each model run puts the event at a further date....thus proving once again their unreliability


Agreed, but I think it's more about the timing of that next strong trough that is going to plowing through the CONUS. I believe this is the only real chance of one last gasp for something tropical to squirt out from the Caribbean. These troughs can suck up disorganized areas of low pressure and we have seen it before were these asymmetrical wet systems move up the front and grow more intense, until the system becomes cold core and races off the Northeast Coast.
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1434
1140. Neapolitan
2:31 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
Quoting 1114. GTstormChaserCaleb:
No use trying to post in Dr. Rood's blog when people in there don't know how to act their age and like to be rude thinking they know more than you and try to tell you what you should and shouldn't post or what classes you have taken or not taken as if they actually know you. Wow talk about false assumptions. I've seen it all, no wonder the deniers of AGW don't believe you guys. Also it is no wonder a lot of the good bloggers left because of you guys because with your condescending remarks have chased them off the blogs. Look I believe there is a human cause to GW, I've given my reasons through my own personal blog and on Dr. Masters blog numerous time, at the same time there is natural processes that are affecting GW and I've also given scientific reasoning as to how that may play a role in colder winters across the US and UK. I think once hurricane season is over I will be taking a break from the blogs to enjoy the winter break and holidays. I may check in from time to time to see if there is any winter storms affecting the area.
I don't think anyone has been rude to you there, Caleb. It's just that most of those who frequent Dr. Rood's forum are far more likely than many here in Dr. Masters' forum to ask questions of questionable comments. IOW, the bar has been set higher where climate science discussion is concerned. Most of those who hang out there have been around the climate change "debate"--such as it is--for years; many have actual working science backgrounds. Because of that, they've heard literally every argument against AGW theory; they've thoroughly researched every one of those arguments using respected and credible sources; and they're prepared to rebut those arguments with practiced and intelligent logic, evidence, and fact. So anyone hoping to go in there and cite debunked or discredited sources, while at the same time rejecting the mainstream (97%) consensus in support of climate change theory, will probably walk away feeling a little bruised and disappointed. ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13441
1139. StormTrackerScott
2:30 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
Quoting 1127. ILwthrfan:


But they have been consistent in showing development for the last 3 to 4 days. True we have seen this song and dance before, but make no mistake that there is still plenty of untapped Atlantic water out there. Seeing another one-sided tropical or subtropical system moving north out of the southern Caribbean is something that is really quite normal for this time of year. If nothing tropical takes any heat out of the Atlantic, Winter is going to be rough for several when that polar jets starts dipping down and pulling moisture from those waters...



Sea surface temps are still near 80 here along E C FL which is way above normal for now going into early November.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2227
1138. ricderr
2:30 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
At least he tries to forecast unlike "SOME PEOPLE" who just troll and attack people for no reason... Chill out dude.


i call out no one...i mention no one by name...nor do i do anything but state my point....if to you that is trolling...then i'm quite happy in letting you enjoy that position....but if taking a long range models outcome and blindly calling it your forecast is something i am supposed to respect....well...then you'll just have to let me enjoy my opinion that is is not..i wish you peace
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 670 Comments: 21298
1137. RitaEvac
2:29 PM GMT on October 31, 2013










Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
1136. ILwthrfan
2:27 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
Quoting 1128. Tazmanian:
guys it wont happen we have seen this many if times on the gfs this season and look nothing happen and giveing this time of year what you are seeing on the gfs is most likey a nor ester


This is true Taz, but how many times have we seen something scrape up at the tail end of the season from the Caribbean? Climatology time of the season favors these things, more times that not ;). One thing is for certain. Florida and the East Coast gonna get wet. Strong front, ample moisture, whether anything organizes tropical remains to be seen.
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1434
1135. wunderkidcayman
2:27 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
Quoting 1130. GrandCaymanMed:
Changing my tune from last night when I said the season was over- I think we might squeeze out one more tropical system in the W. Caribbean especially now that some reputed models are on board. In any case, it is a wait and see situation. A minimal tropical storm would be fun to experience as long as it does not cause flooding but anything stronger no thank you.

Lol ok but anyway yeah I agree we will get some form of tropical cyclone in the W Caribbean before end of season

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10852
1134. Torito
2:26 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
Quoting 1131. 7544:


hmmm things could get interesting next week keeping one eye out for the 2 fl stroms if they dont get droped


Well, they have held for several runs in a row now... we will see what happens.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1133. ricderr
2:26 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
ILwrth...once again...i'm not discounting that we will not see a tropical system before the end of season.. that would be foolish.....but just as foolish..is someone who stakes their claim to a long range model...not to mention that when these outlying models first picked up on this....we would be looking at progression starting now...but that is not the case...each model run puts the event at a further date....thus proving once again their unreliability
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 670 Comments: 21298
1132. wunderkidcayman
2:25 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
Quoting 1125. StormTrackerScott:
Very impressive 16day precip accum for FL in November on the 0Z GFS. This is very indicative that it is expected to get very active across FL whether it's tropical related or not.


Gosh look how wet it gets for cayman nice
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10852
1131. 7544
2:25 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
Quoting 1101. Torito:
First Cane:



Second Cane:



hmmm things could get interesting next week keeping one eye out for the 2 fl stroms if they dont get droped
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6676
1130. GrandCaymanMed
2:24 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
Changing my tune from last night when I said the season was over- I think we might squeeze out one more tropical system in the W. Caribbean especially now that some reputed models are on board. In any case, it is a wait and see situation. A minimal tropical storm would be fun to experience as long as it does not cause flooding but anything stronger no thank you.
Member Since: March 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 264
1129. Torito
2:23 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
Quoting 1126. ricderr:
i seem to recall someone grandstanding on here last week trying to bolster their opinion of the long range models stating that parts of florida would see upwards of 10 inches of rain by the middle of next week...i wonder who that was?.....anyone remember?


At least he tries to forecast unlike "SOME PEOPLE" who just troll and attack people for no reason... Chill out dude.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1128. Tazmanian
2:23 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
guys it wont happen we have seen this many if times on the gfs this season and look nothing happen and giveing this time of year what you are seeing on the gfs is most likey a extra-tropical storm by time it gets too the USA it wont be fully tropical
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114648
1127. ILwthrfan
2:22 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
Quoting 1123. ricderr:
and once again we're giving perfect credence to models that are 7 days out....sad...very sad


But they have been consistent in showing development for the last 3 to 4 days. True we have seen this song and dance before, but make no mistake that there is still plenty of untapped Atlantic water out there. Seeing another one-sided tropical or subtropical system moving north out of the southern Caribbean is something that is really quite normal for this time of year. If nothing tropical takes any heat out of the Atlantic, Winter is going to be rough for several when that polar jets starts dipping down and pulling moisture from those waters...

Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1434
1126. ricderr
2:22 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
i seem to recall someone grandstanding on here last week trying to bolster their opinion of the long range models stating that parts of florida would see upwards of 10 inches of rain by the middle of next week...i wonder who that was?.....anyone remember?
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 670 Comments: 21298
1125. StormTrackerScott
2:18 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
Very impressive 16day precip accum for FL in November on the 0Z GFS. This is very indicative that it is expected to get very active across FL whether it's tropical related or not.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2227
1124. Sfloridacat5
2:18 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
Quoting 1082. CaribBoy:


Significant rain event? LOL... I knew the GFS would BUST again.... DRY AIR always WINS.


The GFS has been predicting a nothing season and so far that's been the case.
All these other models have been forecasting storm after storm and nothing has ever materalized.

Eventually you learn to ignore those other models. The GFS is about the only model I trust (5-7 day range).
Beyond 7 days, none of the models have a clue.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5886
1123. ricderr
2:15 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
and once again we're giving perfect credence to models that are 7 days out....sad...very sad
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 670 Comments: 21298
1122. StormTrackerScott
2:14 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
Quoting 1120. wunderkidcayman:
Yes wind shear is high but I say that shear should drop starting around Saturday
Yes we got our brain child of this forecasted storm which is that surface trof in E Caribbean vort is slowly increasing and that is the same trof that NHC/NOAA are forecasting to become our low that ends up becoming the forecasted hurricane or TS


I think it's funny how they are capable of reading a model out in time but still choose to post today's shear map and try to cause a stir on the blog.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2227
1121. StormTrackerScott
2:13 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
Quoting 1104. StormWx:


Downcast? There isnt even an invest yet, let along a spin anywhere LOL. It will be very difficult considering shear is VERY high. We will wait and see what happens Scotty boy. Hang in there Chief maybe you'll get a stormie storm!



That's today shear is expected to relax in 5 days. Infact wind shear less than 10knts expected early to mid next week in the Caribbean. So try again!
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2227
1120. wunderkidcayman
2:12 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
Yes wind shear is high but I say that shear should drop starting around Saturday
Yes we got our brain child of this forecasted storm which is that surface trof in E Caribbean vort is slowly increasing and that is the same trof that NHC/NOAA are forecasting to become our low that ends up becoming the forecasted hurricane or TS
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10852
1119. ILwthrfan
2:06 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
Farmers are pretty much finished in the fields, exception a few plowed fields to get through. Rain is much welcomed across the Prairie State. Widespread 1" plus rains already recorded.

Should have another 1/2" - 3/4" before noon with the possibility of squall line developing later this evening.



Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1434
1118. LargoFl
2:06 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
well wife wants to go shopping..BBL folks...and happy Halloween to one and all
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36615

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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