Australia Endures Another Dangerous Fire Weather Day; Lorenzo Dissipates

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on October 24, 2013

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Sydney, Australia and the Blue Mountains have endured a second day of dangerous fire weather conditions without a devastating fire catastrophe ensuing. The high temperature in Sydney on Thursday hit 73°F, with sustained winds of 30 mph gusting to 41 mph, and a humidity as low as 7%. The temperature was nearly 20°F cooler than on Wednesday, but the strong winds and low humidity helped fan the 56 fires still burning across the state of New South Wales. Tragically, a fire-fighting aircraft crashed Thursday during a mission to douse one of the fires, killing the pilot and starting a new fire. The fires have burned more than 120,000 hectares (300,000 acres), and have a perimeter of about 1,600 km (990 miles), and are being blamed for two deaths and over $97 million in damage. Australia has just had its hottest September on record, and the 12-month period ending in August 2013 set a record for the hottest 12-month period in Australian history. Australia's warmest summer and 3rd warmest winter on record occurred during this 12-month period. It has also been quite dry in the fire region over the past few months, with sol moisture levels in the lowest 10% historically. However, the latest drought statement from the Bureau of Meteorology is not showing that long-term drought conditions exist.


Figure 1. Volunteer Christelle Gilmore cares for 'Phoenix', an orphaned baby Swamp Wallaby burned in the Springwood fires on October 22, 2013 in Castlereagh, Australia. Photo by Brendon Thorne/Getty Images.

Raymond weakens, moves away from Mexico
Tropical Storm Raymond continues to move away from the coast of Mexico, and will no longer bring heavy rains to the country. Recent satellite loops show that Raymond is a poorly-organized tropical storm, with just a modest area of heavy thunderstorms.


Figure 2. Rainfall over Mexico from October 15 - 23 from Hurricane Raymond totaled close to 10" near Acapulco, as estimated by NASA's TRMM satellite. Fortunately, Raymond did not move ashore, or else the 15+" inches of rain that fell offshore would have fallen over land. Image credit: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.

Tropical Storm Lorenzo dies in the Middle Atlantic
Tropical Storm Lorenzo has died in the Middle Atlantic, done in by high wind shear. None of the reliable computer models for tropical cyclone genesis are predicting any new storms developing in the coming five days. During the first week of November, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, will bring rising air over the Caribbean, increasing the odds of a tropical storm developing then.

Typhoons Francisco and Lekima weaken
Typhoon Francisco has weakened to a tropical storm, and is bringing heavy rains to Japan as it stays offshore and heads northeast, parallel to the coast. Super Typhoon Lekima, which stayed at Category 5 status for a day and a half, has now weakened to a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds. Satellite loops show that Lekima is still an impressive typhoon with a prominent eye surrounded by a solid ring of eyewall clouds with very cold cloud tops. Lekima is predicted to recurve to the northeast without affecting any land areas. While Lekima was at peak strength between 12 and 18 UTC on Wednesday, its eye expanded greatly in size while the storm stayed at Category 5 strength, something that is very unusual to see (thanks to Scott Bachmeier of the University of Wisconsin CIMSS for the info and animation.)


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Super Typhoon Lekima, taken at approximately 01:05 UTC on October 24, 2013. At the time, Lekima was a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 92. whitewabit:
Pat .. if there are 1300 spent fuel rods each weighing 2/3 of a ton .. how do they come up with the 400 tons ??


It's 'new math'. Just like what their engineers have used when computing the safety measures and the cleanup/recovery!
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Quoting 91. EyEtoEyE:
. That looks omnious , probably Hurricane Melissa , and moving probably east towards west coast of Florida , could be stronger , all it takes is one bad storm , makes a season a bad on , just look at 92 ! The A storm ! And anyone who says the Gulf is dead as a doornail should reexamine there facts, nothing in the tropics is ever dead , remember hurricanes , tropical storms can happen at any time of the year , despite conditions !


I feel like florida hasnt had a direct hit from a major in forever, right?
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Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
They are fuel rod assemblies, as I understand it.



Fukushima, Fuel Rods, and the Crisis of Divided and Distracted Governance

First the essential details. The roughly 1300 used fuel rod assemblies in the pool weigh in the neighbourhood of 300 kilograms and contain radiation equivalent to 14,000 times the amount released in the atomic bomb attack on Hiroshima 68 years ago. Being spent fuel, they contain cesium 137 and Strontium 90, with half-lives of about 30 years. They also contain plutonium 239, with a half-life of 24,000 years. Sheldrick and Slodkowski rightly describe the latter as one of the most toxic substances in the universe. The assemblies are to be removed from a concrete fuel pool 10 metres by 12 metres in area, and from within water 7 metres deep. The structure's base is 18 meters above ground level. Removing fuel assemblies is delicate enough at the best of times, but the pool itself may have been damaged by the quake, the explosion or corrosion from salt water that was poured into the pool when fresh supplies ran out during the crisis. - See more at: http://www.japanfocus.org/-Andrew-DeWit/3987#sthas h.hI7Yw0oc.dpuf
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92. whitewabit (Mod)
Pat .. if there are 1300 spent fuel rods each weighing 2/3 of a ton .. how do they come up with the 400 tons ??
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Quoting 78. MiamiHeat305:


wondering where it would go east or west after that?
either way it seems to be a 988 MB low thats a pretty good CAT 1
. That looks omnious , probably Hurricane Melissa , and moving probably east towards west coast of Florida , could be stronger , all it takes is one bad storm , makes a season a bad on , just look at 92 ! The A storm ! And anyone who says the Gulf is dead as a doornail should reexamine there facts, nothing in the tropics is ever dead , remember hurricanes , tropical storms can happen at any time of the year , despite conditions !
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The ECMWF is now completely abaondoning the severe weather solution it had
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9467
There aren't any official GDP figures from the 19th century. This private site says $8.379 billion for the USA in 1878. Can't vouch for it but I'll accept it for this exercise. The BEA has GDP last quarter at $16.661 trillion.

As a percentage of GDP $2 million in 1878 is like $4 billion now.
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Fukushima readies for dangerous operation to remove 400 tons of spent fuel
Published time: October 23, 2013 19:34
Edited time: October 24, 2013 11:53


Fukushima operator TEPCO is getting ready for its toughest and the most dangerous clean-up operation. In November it will try to remove 400 tons of spent fuel from plant’s Reactor No. 4. But even a little mistake may result in a new nuclear disaster.

The operation is scheduled to start in the beginning of November and be completed by around the end of 2014.

Under normal circumstances, the operation to remove all the fuel would take about 100 days. TEPCO (Tokyo Electric Power Co) initially planned to take two years, but reduced the schedule to one year in recognition of the urgency, as even a minor earthquake could trigger an uncontrolled fuel leak.

During this period TEPCO plans to carefully remove more than 1,300 used fuel rod assemblies, packing radiation 14,000 times the equivalent of the Hiroshima nuclear bomb, from their cooling pool.

The base of the pool where the fuel assemblies are situated is 18 meters above ground and the rods are 7 meters under the surface of the water.

TEPCO’s first task is to remove the debris from the Reactor No. 4 fuel pool.

Then, one by one, the fuel rods will be removed from the top store of the damaged building using a crane suspended above the crippled reactor.

Previously a computer-controlled process, this time it has to be done completely manually. And this is what makes this removal operation extremely dangerous.

The fuel rods must be kept submerged and must not touch each other or break.

“The operation to begin removing fuel from such a severely damaged pool has never been attempted before. The rods are unwieldy and very heavy, each one weighing two-thirds of a ton,” fallout researcher Christina Consolo earlier told RT.

Should the attempt fail, a mishandled rod could be exposed to air and catch fire, resulting in horrific quantities of radiation released into the atmosphere. The resulting radiation will be too great for the cooling pool to absorb as it simply has not been designed to do so.

In the worst-case scenario, the pool could come crashing to the ground, dumping the rods together into a pile that could fission and cause an explosion many times worse than in March 2011.

“The worst-case scenario could play out in death to billions of people. A true apocalypse,” Consolo said.

Reactor No. 4 contains 10 times more Cesium-137 than Chernobyl did. This lets scientists warn that in case of another nuclear disaster, it will be the beginning of the ultimate catastrophe of the world and the planet.

“It will be one of the worst, but most important jobs anyone has ever had to do. And even if executed flawlessly, there are still many things that could go wrong,” Consolo said.

The World Nuclear Report, released in July 2013, said “the worst-case scenario” will require evacuation of up to 10 million people within a 250-kilometer radius of Fukushima, including a significant part of Tokyo.

Although some experts are skeptical, TEPCO is confident the operation will be a success. Last year two fuel rods were successfully removed from the pool in a test operation, but back then rod assemblies were empty and posed a far smaller threat.

The operation will be just one installment in the decommissioning process for the plant, and is forecast to take about 40 years and cost $11 billion.

TEPCO, responsible for the clean-up, is struggling to cope with the aftermath of the nuclear disaster, but with the crisis over radiation-contaminated water at the plant, it has been criticized for its ad hoc response to the disaster. In August TEPCO pleaded for overseas help to contain the radioactive fallout, after 18 months of trying to control it internally.

The Japanese government was also ordered to take a more active role in controlling the overflow of radioactive water being flushed over the melted reactors in Units 1, 2 and 3 at the plant.

Three of the Fukushima plant’s nuclear reactors were damaged by an earthquake-triggered tsunami on March 11, 2011, which led to a nuclear disaster. The plant has been accumulating radioactive water ever since. The government imposed a 20-kilometer ‘no-go’ zone around the plant area.
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Quoting 84. MiamiHeat305:


maybe this year will break the 8 yr streak of a hurricane for FL could you imagine out of all the years in 2013 and in November lol
ya don't want a hurricane in November trust me if ya don't like the cold then ya don't want a cane
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52383
EP, 17, 2013102418, , BEST, 0, 148N, 1063W, 45, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 20, 0, 40, 1008, 150, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, RAYMOND, D,
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52383
Quoting 83. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Kate was a beautiful November hurricane in the GOM.



maybe this year will break the 8 yr streak of a hurricane for FL could you imagine out of all the years in 2013 and in November lol
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Kate was a beautiful November hurricane in the GOM.

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Quoting 72. 47n91w:


2,000,000 USD in 1878 equals about 46.9 million USD in 2012. But that just seems to be the financial toll in the mid-atlantic States, I wasn't able to quickly find cost estimates from Cuba. 71 dead and many homes destroyed. Quite the monster.


That takes into account inflation. It doesn't take into account economic growth. As a percentage of GDP $2,000,000 in 1878 would probably be in the billions today.
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Quoting 79. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Climatology says East, caught up in the prevailing westerlies when it gets above 20-25 N.


now we just have to wait and see if gfs keeps it and does not drop it next run lol
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Quoting 79. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Climatology says East, caught up in the prevailing westerlies when it gets above 20-25 N.



this is whats showing for precip and pressure for nov 3rd

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Quoting 78. MiamiHeat305:


wondering where it would go east or west after that?
either way it seems to be a 988 MB low thats a pretty good CAT 1
Climatology says East, caught up in the prevailing westerlies when it gets above 20-25 N.
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wondering where it would go east or west after that?
either way it seems to be a 988 MB low thats a pretty good CAT 1
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gets its act together at hr 144

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52383
asd of Halloween night

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52383


Halloween trick yet to come
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Quoting 68. sar2401:

Caleb, the low here in SE Alabama was 39. Should go down to 34 Saturday. It's 72 with a dewpoint of 44. The water temperature off Panama City is 77. We'll have another cold front hit the Gulf Sunday.

The Gulf is a dead doornail when it come to stealing moisture from anywhere.
That means nothing if we see temperatures like this in the Southeast, a ridge over top is favorable for tropical development.



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Maybe the snow will come down in OK

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9467
Quoting washingtonian115:
This is what the storm of 1878 would have looked like over my area...


2,000,000 USD in 1878 equals about 46.9 million USD in 2012. But that just seems to be the financial toll in the mid-atlantic States, I wasn't able to quickly find cost estimates from Cuba. 71 dead and many homes destroyed. Quite the monster.
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Quoting 67. Tribucanes:
Conditions for the Caribbean disturbance are marginal at best. Low level vort is good, shear is low but expected to increase, lack of any convergence, and divergence is mainly responsible for ongoing convection. Conditions are marginal for a few days and then to the West it's death for any storm moving that direction. If this heads NE and then ENE it could have a chance at fish status but looking like this will never amount to anything. First couple weeks of November could be a very different story. GFS has been stubbornly showing a strong system in the Caribbean around that time frame for days and days now. Season could end with a bang, but a lot of things would have to line up for that to happen.
Here is something to think about, vorticity from one of these systems in the WPAC gets caught up in the mid-latitude upper level trough that sweeps across the Pacific and through the CONUS and breaks off and forms a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Basin. Also, correlation of Indian Ocean TC Phaillin and the current MJO Wave Propagation with the formation of a potential TC in the Atlantic Basin, lets see if we get a clone system as strong as Phaillin, wouldn't that be something remarkable and something to add to the study of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
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Sar two weeks ago said we were done for the season with his typical snarky reasoning. He was wrong then and he may well be wrong about a November cane. A lot would have to conditionally come together, but to call it 3 million to 1 is typical Sar superiority thinking and is really silly and way off what the real chance at a November hurricane is; which is closer to 15-20% this year.
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Quoting Torito:


Yea, my forecast of 16-3-1 was a little off.

right now we are at 12-2-0, so I need 4-1-1 more. :)

I nailed the total at 12 and got close with hurricanes at 3, but I guessed at 2 majors, and the chances of one are about the same as me having another night like the one I described. :-)
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Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
But this looks to develop more monsoonal in nature and looks like it steals moisture from the developing EPAC storm, so this might be bigger than Karen. I do agree there will likely be shear and dry air in the Gulf, but the system develops before reaching the Gulf unlike Karen. We will see this is 2013 anyways, so knowing the luck of the Atlantic the MJO might fall flat on its face before something can get going.

Caleb, the low here in SE Alabama was 39. Should go down to 34 Saturday. It's 72 with a dewpoint of 44. The water temperature off Panama City is 77. We'll have another cold front hit the Gulf Sunday.

The Gulf is a dead doornail when it come to stealing moisture from anywhere.
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Conditions for the Caribbean disturbance are marginal at best. Low level vort is good, shear is low but expected to increase, lack of any convergence, and divergence is mainly responsible for ongoing convection. Conditions are marginal for a few days and then to the West it's death for any storm moving that direction. If this heads NE and then ENE it could have a chance at fish status but looking like this will never amount to anything. First couple weeks of November could be a very different story. GFS has been stubbornly showing a strong system in the Caribbean around that time frame for days and days now. Season could end with a bang, but a lot of things would have to line up for that to happen.
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Why can't we ever have nice things like instability
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9467
not much change to the 12z from 6z








little instability
nice surface low



Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9467


Still socked in here. (image will change). Wasn't supposed to be like this. Should have been in the 80's last two days. The 7 day I posted 2 days ago was all 80's except the 73(rain chance) at the end.



62.3 right now. Won't be warm today.
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Quoting 62. sar2401:

I hit two royal flushes on the same night...at the same video poker machine...and one was dealt to me! The odds of all three events happening in the same session are a little less than 3 million to 1. Although I remember that night 28 years ago fondly, and wish it would happen again, it never has and I don't go into a casino with any expectation that it will. That's about how I feel like the odds are of a new hurricane this season. :-)


Yea, my forecast of 16-3-1 was a little off.

right now we are at 12-2-0, so I need 4-1-1 more. :)
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
Quoting Torito:


In December and even January as well...........

Hurricane Alice spanned 2 calendar years.

Link

I hit two royal flushes on the same night...at the same video poker machine...and one was dealt to me! The odds of all three events happening in the same session are a little less than 3 million to 1. Although I remember that night 28 years ago fondly, and wish it would happen again, it never has and I don't go into a casino with any expectation that it will. That's about how I feel like the odds are of a new hurricane this season. :-)
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 241717
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 24 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENZO...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN WELL EAST OF BERMUDA.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FIVE DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

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Quoting 19. WalkingInTheSun:





Awesome picture.
With a little imagination, it could sort of look like angels fighting. Sort of like vivid 3D animation or something.

EDIT: actually, reminds me of some of the old Marvel comics -- stuff like X-men, Cable, etc. when you zoom in closer. Cool.



I'll have what you're having. :)
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THE END?



Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
This might eventually need da yellow crayon.

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That UFO is still flying around lekima...

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Quoting 55. WalkingInTheSun:


Okay -- when he comes on, I will probably be offline again, but people really need to get some good pics of Shark-nado-type stuff going for him, haha.


Here, happy now? :)




Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
Quoting 52. Torito:


Not to mention, will it go to him??????? xD


Okay -- when he comes on, I will probably be offline again, but people really need to get some good pics of Shark-nado-type stuff going for him, haha.
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54. josF
Thanks for keeping us updated Dr Masters.
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Quoting 30. Llamaluvr:
I think we're all waiting for StormTrackerScott to analyze the situation.


Hey, I like that guy!
I don't mind his analyzing, but I do notice he watches for FL like I watch for TX, haha, so I ribbed him a little about the Low in the BOC yesterday.
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Quoting 51. WalkingInTheSun:


-- C'mon, where's Storm Tracker Scott on this? :-))
Da-dmp, da-dmp, da-dmp -- (Shark-Nado II?)


Not to mention, will it go to him??????? xD
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Quoting 32. GTstormChaserCaleb:
DOOM!!!



And actually this seems reasonable believe it or not this MJO pulse has meant business since it started with Phaillin something to keep an eye on at the beginning of the month, and watch for pressures to lower and heat to build up in the Caribbean.


-- C'mon, where's Storm Tracker Scott on this? :-))
Da-dmp, da-dmp, da-dmp -- (Shark-Nado II?)
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EPAC 228 hrs. see what the rest of the ensemble run shows.

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Quoting 46. Bluestorm5:
GFS being 384 HRs out PLUS it's November... I won't bet a dime on this one. I know hurricanes can form in November, but that's pretty rare.


In December and even January as well...........

Hurricane Alice spanned 2 calendar years.

Link
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
Quoting 45. GTstormChaserCaleb:
You betcha...here is a look at things now.



that blob south of the GOM looks interesting... it might have amounted to something if shear and frontal winds did not bother it like it is right now...
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
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GFS being 384 HRs out PLUS it's November... I won't bet a dime on this one. I know hurricanes can form in November, but that's pretty rare.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.