Australia Endures Another Dangerous Fire Weather Day; Lorenzo Dissipates

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on October 24, 2013

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Sydney, Australia and the Blue Mountains have endured a second day of dangerous fire weather conditions without a devastating fire catastrophe ensuing. The high temperature in Sydney on Thursday hit 73°F, with sustained winds of 30 mph gusting to 41 mph, and a humidity as low as 7%. The temperature was nearly 20°F cooler than on Wednesday, but the strong winds and low humidity helped fan the 56 fires still burning across the state of New South Wales. Tragically, a fire-fighting aircraft crashed Thursday during a mission to douse one of the fires, killing the pilot and starting a new fire. The fires have burned more than 120,000 hectares (300,000 acres), and have a perimeter of about 1,600 km (990 miles), and are being blamed for two deaths and over $97 million in damage. Australia has just had its hottest September on record, and the 12-month period ending in August 2013 set a record for the hottest 12-month period in Australian history. Australia's warmest summer and 3rd warmest winter on record occurred during this 12-month period. It has also been quite dry in the fire region over the past few months, with sol moisture levels in the lowest 10% historically. However, the latest drought statement from the Bureau of Meteorology is not showing that long-term drought conditions exist.


Figure 1. Volunteer Christelle Gilmore cares for 'Phoenix', an orphaned baby Swamp Wallaby burned in the Springwood fires on October 22, 2013 in Castlereagh, Australia. Photo by Brendon Thorne/Getty Images.

Raymond weakens, moves away from Mexico
Tropical Storm Raymond continues to move away from the coast of Mexico, and will no longer bring heavy rains to the country. Recent satellite loops show that Raymond is a poorly-organized tropical storm, with just a modest area of heavy thunderstorms.


Figure 2. Rainfall over Mexico from October 15 - 23 from Hurricane Raymond totaled close to 10" near Acapulco, as estimated by NASA's TRMM satellite. Fortunately, Raymond did not move ashore, or else the 15+" inches of rain that fell offshore would have fallen over land. Image credit: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.

Tropical Storm Lorenzo dies in the Middle Atlantic
Tropical Storm Lorenzo has died in the Middle Atlantic, done in by high wind shear. None of the reliable computer models for tropical cyclone genesis are predicting any new storms developing in the coming five days. During the first week of November, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, will bring rising air over the Caribbean, increasing the odds of a tropical storm developing then.

Typhoons Francisco and Lekima weaken
Typhoon Francisco has weakened to a tropical storm, and is bringing heavy rains to Japan as it stays offshore and heads northeast, parallel to the coast. Super Typhoon Lekima, which stayed at Category 5 status for a day and a half, has now weakened to a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds. Satellite loops show that Lekima is still an impressive typhoon with a prominent eye surrounded by a solid ring of eyewall clouds with very cold cloud tops. Lekima is predicted to recurve to the northeast without affecting any land areas. While Lekima was at peak strength between 12 and 18 UTC on Wednesday, its eye expanded greatly in size while the storm stayed at Category 5 strength, something that is very unusual to see (thanks to Scott Bachmeier of the University of Wisconsin CIMSS for the info and animation.)


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Super Typhoon Lekima, taken at approximately 01:05 UTC on October 24, 2013. At the time, Lekima was a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 140. WalkingInTheSun:


My question is not "Can the kitty get the pretty balloon?".
My question is,"How in the world did the kitty get up on top of the door in the first place?"

(I will guess via some clever photo-shopping.)


The kitty got there by putting a nuclear power plant just above sea-level in an earthquake and tsunami-prone area...

(If you mean the actual kitty, not the symbolic kitty - a book shelf out of frame to the right could explain it...)
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Quoting 136. Torito:


ME, for one. LOL xD

It is actually pretty good for short range model runs, as well as NE Coast landfall locations.

It may be good for North America, but for predicting tropical cyclone genesis and intensity it is pretty useless. Pretty much it's in the same category as the CMC and NAVGEM.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7971
If you look at these 2 images, you will see that at 3 AM Sunday, as far as the cones of uncertainties are concerned, these 2 storms can get rather close to each other. 2 questions, how close do 2 tropical systems have to be before they start interacting? And do the models take this interaction factor into account when they forecast track?



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Quoting 97. Neapolitan:
--"In the worst-case scenario, the pool could come crashing to the ground, dumping the rods together into a pile that could fission and cause an explosion many times worse than in March 2011."

--"The worst-case scenario could play out in death to billions of people. A true apocalypse..."

--"... in case of another nuclear disaster, it will be the beginning of the ultimate catastrophe of the world and the planet."

--"The World Nuclear Report, released in July 2013, said “the worst-case scenario” will require evacuation of up to 10 million people within a 250-kilometer radius of Fukushima, including a significant part of Tokyo."

...but then there's this heartening bit of news:

--"TEPCO is confident the operation will be a success."

Now I feel better. After all, everything's gone off without a hitch for the company so far, right? I think we can trust them...

(You know, I've been planning a cross-country motorcycle trip for spring, but I might just move it up...)


After 3-mile Island,....I never did care much for nuclear energy nor for all the schemes to dump the spent, radioactive waste in "other people's backyards" -- states & counties FAR from those who created the nasty stuff, by govt decision dominating the locals who often don't want it.
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Quoting 140. WalkingInTheSun:


My question is not "Can the kitty get the pretty balloon?".
My question is,"How in the world did the kitty get up on top of the door in the first place?"

(I will guess via some clever photo-shopping.)


or, someone put it there. xD
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting 139. MiamiHeat305:

how?


probably this...



:P
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting 118. MrMixon:




My question is not "Can the kitty get the pretty balloon?".
My question is,"How in the world did the kitty get up on top of the door in the first place?"

(I will guess via some clever photo-shopping.)
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Quoting 138. Hurricane1956:
Bay of Campeche,getting very interesting!!

how?
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Bay of Campeche,getting very interesting!!
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Quoting 136. Torito:


ME, for one. LOL xD

It is actually pretty good for short range model runs, as well as NE Coast landfall locations.
It also nailed the track of Lee.
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Quoting 135. wxchaser97:

...who uses the NAM for the tropics?


ME, for one. LOL xD

It is actually pretty good for short range model runs, as well as NE Coast landfall locations.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting 129. Torito:


As far as I know, yes, they are each based on different conditions/solutions. Also, many people use the GFS and NAM for the tropics.

:)

...who uses the NAM for the tropics?
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7971
Quoting 95. nwobilderburg:


I feel like florida hasnt had a direct hit from a major in forever, right?
. Since 1921 ! For the Tampa Bay Area.
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GFS - NCEP's Global Forecast System

The numerical model used for NCEP's global data assimilation system and for the aviation (AVN) and medium-range forecasts (MRF) is the global spectral model, now known as the Global Forecast System (GFS). As one might guess from its name, the "aviation model" was not specifically developed to predict hurricane motion or intensity. Rather, one of the primary uses of the GFS is to produce forecasts for aviation guidance worldwide. The GFS model is run four times each day at the primary and intermediate synoptic times (0000, 0600, 1200 and 1800 UTC) with a wait of 2.75 hr for data arrival. Forecasts are made out to Day 16.

The GFS is a baroclinic-dynamical model. Like the GHM, the model is a primitive equation model which predicts winds, temperature, surface pressure, humidity, and precipitation. The prediction equations include the divergence and vorticity equations, the hydrostatic equation, the thermodynamic equation, a mass continuity equation, and a conservation equation for water vapor.

The GFS differs from the GFDL Hurricane Model (GHM) model in that it has a global domain, and the fields within the model are represented by a set of mathematical (sine and cosine) functions rather than values at discreet grid points. The forecast equations are solved for the coefficients of the mathematical functions.

The GFS currently is configured to handle 382 triagular waves across the globe (comparable resolution to a grid point model with a grid spacing of 37 km) and has 64 vertical levels. For integrations between 7 1/2 and 16 days the horizontal resolution is reduced to 190 triangular waves.

In July, 2000, a numerical scheme was implemented to change how tropical cyclone vorticies are initialized in the global spectral model (Technical Procedure Bulletin). In the past, bogus observations based on the National Hurricane Center's estimates of storm location, intensity and size were input to the model's analysis scheme. This has been replaced by a procedure that relocates the vortex in the "first guess" field (the forecast from the previous run of the model) to the correct location.

The relocation procedure takes the model guess field and moves the hurricane vortex to the correct location before the model's analysis is completed. The steps can be briefly summarized as:

Use a spectral filter to separate the total wind field into Basic and Disturbance fields. (Long waves predominate in the Basic wind field while short waves predominate in the Disturbance wind field.)

Locate the hurricane vortex center in the Disturbance wind field,

Separate the hurricane model's vortex from the non-hurricane component in the Disturbance wind field,

Combine the Basic wind field and non-hurricane component of the Disturbance wind field into the Environmental wind field.

Move the extracted hurricane vortex to the NHC official position.

If the vortex is too weak in the guess field, add bogus observations to the model analysis.

The data assimilation scheme uses the revised guess field and all available observations to produce the final analysis for input to the forecast model.

This animated GIF Vortex replacement procedure flow chart depicts the vortex relocation procedure in a flow-chart format.

The vortex is not relocated if the center of the hurricane is over a major land mass or if the topography in the filtered domain is greater than 500 m in elevation. When the procedure was tested in retrospect on the 1999 hurricane season forecasts, the average track forecasts improved by approximately 30% over that of the operational AVN model. The skill of the AVN track forecasts during the 2000 Atlantic season were significantly better than those of previous years.


Skill of AVN track forecasts for 1995-2000

In May, 2001, momentum mixing was included in GFS model's cumulus parameterization scheme. Tests showed this reduces tropical storm false alarm forecasts. Additional changes made to the model at that time were expected to improve the skill in tropical circulation forecasts at all time ranges.

In July, 2006, the vertical coordinate of the GFS was changed from terrain following sigma to a hybrid sigma-pressure coordinate system. The hybrid coordinate is being adopting by modeling centers around the globe and provides improved performance in upper troposphere and stratosphere. Retrospective runs made of some 2005 hurricanes suggest the forecast track skill will not change, while forecast strength may be better than before for hurricanes. Reference: Kanamitsu, M., 1989: Description of the NMC global data assimilation and forecast system. Wea. Forecasting, 4, 335-342.
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Quoting 130. GatorWX:


Nice concentric eyewalls!


Indeed, I have not seen anything like this in a LONG time....... :P
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Technical Attachment
AN OVERVIEW OF NHC PREDICTION MODELS

Bernard N. Meisner
Scientific Services Division
National Weather Service Southern Region


Introduction

Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) have a variety of prediction models available to provide guidance for their forecasts of tropical cyclone tracks and intensity. The intent of this paper is to provide a brief overview of each of the models. Forecasters may find this information helpful when considering NHC discussions which mention the performance of individual models. A primary reference is provided after the summary of each model for readers who desire more information. NOTE: All thumbnail graphics in this Web document are linked to larger version of the graphics. Just click the thumbnail to view the larger version.

As noted by Neumann (1979), models for the prediction of tropical cyclone motion and intensity may be classified as either statistical or dynamical. Statistical models rely on what has happened-the climatology of past storms, for example. Dynamical models can be classified as either barotropic or baroclinic. Statistical-dynamical models are an intermediate class that incorporate numerically forecast data into a statistical prediction framework, similar to the Model Output Statistics used to provide guidance for specific parameters such as temperature and probability of precipitation.
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Quoting 111. Torito:
Eyewall replacement cycle almost complete. :)

This is what an eyewall replacement cycle looks like. A new eyewall forms outside of the old eyewall, and then the convection between the 2 eyewalls dissipates, leaving an entirely new eye to boot.

This is the first time I have captured the MIMIC models displaying this amazing feat of nature.

Notice the weakening occuring during this cycle (top left of the image). This is perfectly normal while an eyewall replacement cycle is in progress.





Nice concentric eyewalls!
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Quoting 127. MiamiHeat305:

one question though always kind of wondered the different models.. are they fed the same info and come up with different solutions and apparently everyone likes the GFS seems to be the most reliable?


As far as I know, yes, they are each based on different conditions/solutions. Also, many people use the GFS and NAM for the tropics.

:)
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Lekima on modis.... added to my blog....



Blog is here.

Link
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting 125. Torito:


Normal GFS:

Link

GFS Full Res:

Link

one question though always kind of wondered the different models.. are they fed the same info and come up with different solutions and apparently everyone likes the GFS seems to be the most reliable?
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Quoting 118. MrMixon:


At least the cat has nine lives.
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Quoting 124. MiamiHeat305:

oh okay thanks :)


Normal GFS:

Link

GFS Full Res:

Link
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting 123. Torito:


yea that is the gfs full res. the normal model is just plain gfs. :)

oh okay thanks :)
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Quoting 122. MiamiHeat305:


i thought it was a 988mb low on the same run at 384 hrs out lol is that a different gfs?
was larger in the other run i saw too ...


yea that is the gfs full res. the normal model is just plain gfs. :)
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting 119. DonnieBwkGA:
Oooooooooh!

Quoting 119. DonnieBwkGA:
Oooooooooh!



i thought it was a 988mb low on the same run at 384 hrs out lol is that a different gfs?
was larger in the other run i saw too ...
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Quoting 111. Torito:
Eyewall replacement cycle almost complete. :)

This is what an eyewall replacement cycle looks like. A new eyewall forms outside of the old eyewall, and then the convection between the 2 eyewalls dissipates, leaving an entirely new eye to boot.

This is the first time I have captured the MIMIC models displaying this amazing feat of nature.

Notice the weakening occuring during this cycle (top left of the image). This is perfectly normal while an eyewall replacement cycle is in progress.





I posted a blog about this, for those that wanted to comment about it.

Link
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting 119. DonnieBwkGA:
Oooooooooh!

I kind of want this to develop so the blog can get active again and your comment as soon as you post it end up on the next page. :D
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Oooooooooh!

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Quoting 114. Neapolitan:
In other words, one misstep and much of the northern half of Japan--becomes a more-or-less permanent ghost town.

Sounds like fun...


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I am hearing people from towns nearby that they saw a mix of snow/sleet/rain earlier today...... :D :D :D :D :D Mood Boost: +10000000
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Quoting 114. Neapolitan:
In other words, one misstep and much of the northern half of Japan--becomes a more-or-less permanent ghost town.

Sounds like fun...


not to be mean but iam glad I live here

hopefully everything goes well hopefully
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55503
Quoting 109. luvtogolf:


At 384 hours I wouldn't pay too much attention to it. Model forecasting is bad at best that far out.

But wait, models can accurately forecast what our climate will be like 100 years from now. Hmmm, what to believe?
What to believe? Believe scientists--or, you know, the dictionary--when they tell you climate and weather aren't the same.
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Quoting 99. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
• Reactor #4 contains 1,535 spent fuel rods which remain highly radioactive.

• These fuel rods currently hold the potential to emit 37 million curies of radiation.

• Those fuel rods are stored in a concrete pool located 100 feet above the ground, inside the structurally compromised reactor building, effectively making the pool open to the air.

• The pool holding these fuel rods is "structurally damaged."

• "If an earthquake or other event were to cause this pool to drain this could result in a catastrophic radiological fire involving nearly 10 times the amount of Cs-137 released by the Chernobyl accident." - Mr. Robert Alvarez, former Senior Policy Adviser to the Secretary and Deputy Assistant Secretary for National Security and the Environment at the U.S. Department of Energy.

• "The infrastructure to safely remove this material was destroyed as it was at the other three reactors." - Mr. Alvarez.

• Just 50 meters from reactor No. 4, a much larger pool of spent fuel rods contains 6,375 fuel rods, all of which remain highly radioactive.

• All these fuel rods are, astonishingly, exposed to the open air. They are not held inside any containment vessel.

• The total number of spent fuel rods across all six reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi site is 11,421.

• If reactor No. 4 suffers a structural failure, the release of radiation from the 1,535 spent fuel rods would make it virtually impossible for work to continue on the site, potentially resulting in an inability to halt a massive radiation release from all the other rods.

• In all, the 11,421 fuel rods held at the Fukushima Daiichi facility contain roughly 336 million curies of "long-lived radioactivity." Roughly 134 million curies of that is Cesium-137.


Learn more: http://www.naturalnews.com/035789_Fukushima_Cesium -137_Plume-Gate.html##ixzz2ifRyjafd
In other words, one misstep and much of the northern half of Japan--becomes a more-or-less permanent ghost town.

Sounds like fun...
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Quoting 91. EyEtoEyE:
. That looks omnious , probably Hurricane Melissa , and moving probably east towards west coast of Florida , could be stronger , all it takes is one bad storm , makes a season a bad on , just look at 92 ! The A storm ! And anyone who says the Gulf is dead as a doornail should reexamine there facts, nothing in the tropics is ever dead , remember hurricanes , tropical storms can happen at any time of the year , despite conditions !


Most of your statement is generally correct, except for the last two words. When tropical cyclones happen at unusual times of the year, it is not despite conditions. It is because the conditions happen to be unusually favorable. When conditions are not favorable they don't happen.
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Look at the BOC!

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Eyewall replacement cycle almost complete. :)

This is what an eyewall replacement cycle looks like. A new eyewall forms outside of the old eyewall, and then the convection between the 2 eyewalls dissipates, leaving an entirely new eye to boot.

This is the first time I have captured the MIMIC models displaying this amazing feat of nature.

Notice the weakening occuring during this cycle (top left of the image). This is perfectly normal while an eyewall replacement cycle is in progress.



Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting 107. Pipejazz:


No worry Torito, I will double my donation to cover you. Thank you for your concern for our Veterans.

Navy 1976-1981


I feel so much better. :3

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting 78. MiamiHeat305:


wondering where it would go east or west after that?
either way it seems to be a 988 MB low thats a pretty good CAT 1


At 384 hours I wouldn't pay too much attention to it. Model forecasting is bad at best that far out.

But wait, models can accurately forecast what our climate will be like 100 years from now. Hmmm, what to believe?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


early cycle models are less bullish than the late cycle models, but still makes raymond run back at hurricane status again.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting 34. Torito:



Touching story, but alas... I have no spare cash. :'(


No worry Torito, I will double my donation to cover you. Thank you for your concern for our Veterans.

Navy 1976-1981
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Quoting 100. DonnieBwkGA:


Harley, Ducati or rice burner?
Probably my Suzuki Intruder, a cruiser. It's a smooth ride on long trips...
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Quoting 84. MiamiHeat305:


maybe this year will break the 8 yr streak of a hurricane for FL could you imagine out of all the years in 2013 and in November lol


Trying to get a hurricane to form in the Western Caribbean and then move north and make it all the way to Florida is difficult to do, in November.

There are so many potential obstacles in the pathway, such as plunging SSTs, increasing wind shear the further north it goes, dry air advection and so on.

Not saying it can't happen but it is rare. Kate in 1985 happened in a Fall season when the cold fronts mostly stayed away, prior to her arrival. November of 1985 was an unusually warm month in Florida. And 1985 was definitely a much different type of hurricane season than is 2013. There had already been at least one major hurricane (Elena) in the Gulf that year, for instance. The atmosphere over the Atlantic Basin was "storm friendly" during that season, unlike this one.
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One year ago today: Sandy hit Jamaica


And then totally shrugged it off.
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RIP LORENZO >:]

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
WOAH. Raymond may become stronger than it was originally.... 0.0

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Looking since this morning the blob just west of Yucatan,I believe if this cluster get a little bit more East,North of the Yucatan Peninsula,we might see something going on,this front tail ends this time of year are dangerous!!!,just keeping and eye!.
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Quoting 97. Neapolitan:
--(You know, I've been planning a cross-country motorcycle trip for spring, but I might just move it up...)


Harley, Ducati or rice burner?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
• Reactor #4 contains 1,535 spent fuel rods which remain highly radioactive.

• These fuel rods currently hold the potential to emit 37 million curies of radiation.

• Those fuel rods are stored in a concrete pool located 100 feet above the ground, inside the structurally compromised reactor building, effectively making the pool open to the air.

• The pool holding these fuel rods is "structurally damaged."

• "If an earthquake or other event were to cause this pool to drain this could result in a catastrophic radiological fire involving nearly 10 times the amount of Cs-137 released by the Chernobyl accident." - Mr. Robert Alvarez, former Senior Policy Adviser to the Secretary and Deputy Assistant Secretary for National Security and the Environment at the U.S. Department of Energy.

• "The infrastructure to safely remove this material was destroyed as it was at the other three reactors." - Mr. Alvarez.

• Just 50 meters from reactor No. 4, a much larger pool of spent fuel rods contains 6,375 fuel rods, all of which remain highly radioactive.

• All these fuel rods are, astonishingly, exposed to the open air. They are not held inside any containment vessel.

• The total number of spent fuel rods across all six reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi site is 11,421.

• If reactor No. 4 suffers a structural failure, the release of radiation from the 1,535 spent fuel rods would make it virtually impossible for work to continue on the site, potentially resulting in an inability to halt a massive radiation release from all the other rods.

• In all, the 11,421 fuel rods held at the Fukushima Daiichi facility contain roughly 336 million curies of "long-lived radioactivity." Roughly 134 million curies of that is Cesium-137.


Learn more: http://www.naturalnews.com/035789_Fukushima_Cesium -137_Plume-Gate.html##ixzz2ifRyjafd
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55503
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting 88. Patrap:


--"In the worst-case scenario, the pool could come crashing to the ground, dumping the rods together into a pile that could fission and cause an explosion many times worse than in March 2011."

--"The worst-case scenario could play out in death to billions of people. A true apocalypse..."

--"... in case of another nuclear disaster, it will be the beginning of the ultimate catastrophe of the world and the planet."

--"The World Nuclear Report, released in July 2013, said “the worst-case scenario” will require evacuation of up to 10 million people within a 250-kilometer radius of Fukushima, including a significant part of Tokyo."

...but then there's this heartening bit of news:

--"TEPCO is confident the operation will be a success."

Now I feel better. After all, everything's gone off without a hitch for the company so far, right? I think we can trust them...

(You know, I've been planning a cross-country motorcycle trip for spring, but I might just move it up...)
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Quoting 92. whitewabit:
Pat .. if there are 1300 spent fuel rods each weighing 2/3 of a ton .. how do they come up with the 400 tons ??


It's 'new math'. Just like what their engineers have used when computing the safety measures and the cleanup/recovery!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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