Australia Endures Another Dangerous Fire Weather Day; Lorenzo Dissipates

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on October 24, 2013

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Sydney, Australia and the Blue Mountains have endured a second day of dangerous fire weather conditions without a devastating fire catastrophe ensuing. The high temperature in Sydney on Thursday hit 73°F, with sustained winds of 30 mph gusting to 41 mph, and a humidity as low as 7%. The temperature was nearly 20°F cooler than on Wednesday, but the strong winds and low humidity helped fan the 56 fires still burning across the state of New South Wales. Tragically, a fire-fighting aircraft crashed Thursday during a mission to douse one of the fires, killing the pilot and starting a new fire. The fires have burned more than 120,000 hectares (300,000 acres), and have a perimeter of about 1,600 km (990 miles), and are being blamed for two deaths and over $97 million in damage. Australia has just had its hottest September on record, and the 12-month period ending in August 2013 set a record for the hottest 12-month period in Australian history. Australia's warmest summer and 3rd warmest winter on record occurred during this 12-month period. It has also been quite dry in the fire region over the past few months, with sol moisture levels in the lowest 10% historically. However, the latest drought statement from the Bureau of Meteorology is not showing that long-term drought conditions exist.


Figure 1. Volunteer Christelle Gilmore cares for 'Phoenix', an orphaned baby Swamp Wallaby burned in the Springwood fires on October 22, 2013 in Castlereagh, Australia. Photo by Brendon Thorne/Getty Images.

Raymond weakens, moves away from Mexico
Tropical Storm Raymond continues to move away from the coast of Mexico, and will no longer bring heavy rains to the country. Recent satellite loops show that Raymond is a poorly-organized tropical storm, with just a modest area of heavy thunderstorms.


Figure 2. Rainfall over Mexico from October 15 - 23 from Hurricane Raymond totaled close to 10" near Acapulco, as estimated by NASA's TRMM satellite. Fortunately, Raymond did not move ashore, or else the 15+" inches of rain that fell offshore would have fallen over land. Image credit: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.

Tropical Storm Lorenzo dies in the Middle Atlantic
Tropical Storm Lorenzo has died in the Middle Atlantic, done in by high wind shear. None of the reliable computer models for tropical cyclone genesis are predicting any new storms developing in the coming five days. During the first week of November, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, will bring rising air over the Caribbean, increasing the odds of a tropical storm developing then.

Typhoons Francisco and Lekima weaken
Typhoon Francisco has weakened to a tropical storm, and is bringing heavy rains to Japan as it stays offshore and heads northeast, parallel to the coast. Super Typhoon Lekima, which stayed at Category 5 status for a day and a half, has now weakened to a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds. Satellite loops show that Lekima is still an impressive typhoon with a prominent eye surrounded by a solid ring of eyewall clouds with very cold cloud tops. Lekima is predicted to recurve to the northeast without affecting any land areas. While Lekima was at peak strength between 12 and 18 UTC on Wednesday, its eye expanded greatly in size while the storm stayed at Category 5 strength, something that is very unusual to see (thanks to Scott Bachmeier of the University of Wisconsin CIMSS for the info and animation.)


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Super Typhoon Lekima, taken at approximately 01:05 UTC on October 24, 2013. At the time, Lekima was a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 190. taistelutipu:
The UK government has recently decided to build another nuclear power plant. The media remain silent regarding Fukushima, of course, they don't want to upset the new deal... so if I had relied on the media in my country, I wouldn't have known about the dangerous removal of spent fuel rods.

In other news, a round of very interesting weather is coming to the UK on Monday, gale to storm force winds with gusts up to 80 mph.

BBC weather forecast

Uk and France are safe places for nuke plants..... Japan and a lot of America is not
Member Since: October 6, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 721
Quoting 166. GatorWX:
Still looks much better than anything the atl has produced through the last three years.



Ophelia, meh, maybe.


Ophelia pain.
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Quoting 156. AldreteMichael:
Just read Dr. Master's post today.

What caught my attention was Lekima's "eye expanded greatly in size while the storm stayed at Category 5 strength". What I found odd about this is that it sounded as if the old eye itself grew, as opposed to a new, larger eye replacing the old smaller eye as the old collapses in on itself, effectively meaning that the eyewall replacement cycle was skipped entirely.

If a tropical system can pull this feat, why don't all do so? What made this possible?

Also, if the eyewall replacement cycle can be skipped, how strong can a tropical system actually become? To my understanding, the EWRC is a major hindrance to a storm's power, because it takes time to complete, and the absolute ideal conditions for strengthening tend to fade away.

This is truly fascinating, and frightening.

Lekima's eye did in fact expand because of an eyewall replacement cycle, albeit on a small and discreet scale.



The Eyewall Replacement Cycle in this instance came and went in a short enough time period that the storm's intensity was not affected much and was able begin strengthening again just as soon as the cycle completed. If you go back and look at IR loops before yesterday's sunrise, you'll even see the inner eyewall dissipate and the outer take over.

This is a bit of an overgeneralization, but the longer a storm has been at a higher intensity, each successive Eyewall Replacement Cycle tends to involve an even larger outer eyewall and take longer to complete.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
Hurricane Sandy was beginning a period of rapid intensification...following its first landfall in Jamaica...this time last year. It would later attain major hurricane intensity for a short period of time prior to striking Cuba.

I think October 24 was the most exciting day on the blog.

2012OCT24 231500 5.6 952.8 104.6 5.6 6.4 6.7 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF -46.26 -77.44 EYE -99 IR 74.3 18.51 76.36 COMBO GOES13 21.7

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31462
the hurricane 384 hrs out no longer in the new gfs run lol
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The UK government has recently decided to build another nuclear power plant. The media remain silent regarding Fukushima, of course, they don't want to upset the new deal... so if I had relied on the media in my country, I wouldn't have known about the dangerous removal of spent fuel rods.

In other news, a round of very interesting weather is coming to the UK on Monday, gale to storm force winds with gusts up to 80 mph.

BBC weather forecast
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Chiefland Florida
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Quoting 187. JrWeathermanFL:
Finally! 42 for the next 2 nights and around 75 for the next 3 days! I'm ready for this.


Where is that at?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
Finally! 42 for the next 2 nights and around 75 for the next 3 days! I'm ready for this.
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Quoting 179. bappit:
I agree that the Fukushima disaster is ongoing. It will continue for years. I am disappointed that the Wikipedia article is written in the past tense. They have a separate article giving a timeline of the disaster with the last entry being for August 26, 2013.

People knowledgeable about the general subject should be able to tell what sounds reasonable and what is sensationalism. They would also be able to say what is well-understood about the situation and what is not well understood. I can't tell what is what for the comments posted here. I don't think anyone else on this blog can tell either. Phrases like "open-air super reactor spectacular" do make me leery.


I can agree that some of the terms sound like embellishment. But 300-400 tons of radioactive water leaking every day can't be good. A bigger containment breach can't be good and ignoring it won't make it go away either.

Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
FEBRUARY 2014
1st-3rd. Intense storm, heavy rain, snow, strong winds. This could seriously impact Super Bowl XLVIII on Feb. 2, which will be played for the 1st time at a cold weather site (New Jersey's MetLife Stadium).
4th-7th. A quiet spell, but unsettled weather returns by 7th.
8th-11th. Coastal snowstorm, cold.
12th-15th. Another storm moves along Appalachian Mountains: wintry mix. Flooding many coastal localities due to heavy rain.
16th-19th. Light snow/flurries. FOR THE NORTHEAST and MID-ATLANTIC
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Aw, yall know the GFS always tries to scare us with a monster before halloween. I think it's happened before ;)
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Looks like the Mid-Atlantic may be in for a snowstorm around December 16-19 and Feb 1-3 and Feb 8-11 according to the Farmers Almanac. It also says for a chance of snow in the Mid-Atlantic Area in Mid-November and around Thanksgiving. The Old Farmers Almanac agrees saying the snowiest periods will be in early and mid December and in early to mid Feb. Now people in the Mid-Atlantics feelings may be down for snow but its been at least four years since we got a decent and major snowstorm in this area and i think we could see the major snowstorms in Feb. Now for the cities the urban heat effect is kind of confusing to me a little to me can someone explain how it works and when the temp starts to decline in a city such as Baltimore , Washington DC, Philly , ext. I know the Chesapeake Bay moderates the temps, should i pay attention to the bay temp to know what the temps in the long term might be ? Please reply anyone in the Mid-Atlantic region or anywhere.
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Quoting 143. WalkingInTheSun:


After 3-mile Island,....I never did care much for nuclear energy nor for all the schemes to dump the spent, radioactive waste in "other people's backyards" -- states & counties FAR from those who created the nasty stuff, by govt decision dominating the locals who often don't want it.


The main reason we even have waste in significant quantities is because ludicrous regulations prevent us from reprocessing it into more fuel. It's a policy problem, not a science or technology problem.

What we do now with nuclear wastes would be the equivalent of filling up your gas tank, driving until you use an 1/8th of it, then throwing out your gas tank as "waste".

The best way to take care of waste of any kind is to recycle as much of it as you can. If we did this with nuclear waste, not only would we get more energy but we would have far less waste products than we do now.
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National Weather Service New Orleans la
409 PM CDT Thursday Oct 24 2013

Discussion...

fairly benign weather continues across southern Louisiana and
Mississippi. The area still remains under the influence of deep
trough well to the northeast. Another impulse along that feature
will send a cold front through the area overnight. This boundary
will be dry in terms of rain due to the lack of moisture return.
Only effects will be breezy winds overnight through middle morning
Friday and cold air advection. Highs will struggle to reach lower
70s during the day as cooler air mass moves in. These conditions
will continue Friday night/Saturday morning as winds weaken and
strong radiational cooling ensues. The coldest temperatures this
fall are expected with lows dipping into the upper 30s in southwest
Mississippi and lower 40s for the northern half of the County Warning Area.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
the wind shear in the GOM needs to go down for a tropical storm
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I agree that the Fukushima disaster is ongoing. It will continue for years. I am disappointed that the Wikipedia article is written in the past tense. They have a separate article giving a timeline of the disaster with the last entry being for August 26, 2013.

People knowledgeable about the general subject should be able to tell what sounds reasonable and what is sensationalism. They would also be able to say what is well-understood about the situation and what is not well understood. I can't tell what is what for the comments posted here. I don't think anyone else on this blog can tell either. Phrases like "open-air super reactor spectacular" do make me leery.
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Is this going to be another Halloween to remember in South Florida?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
More snow falling on Beech Mountain, North Carolina.

Link
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Quoting 167. Torito:



Here gator. MIMIC image...

Link


I saw someone post that earlier. Bet it'd look nice on radar.
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Quoting 172. bappit:
Posts on Fukushima are hard to vet on this site because we have even less knowledge of that subject. Maybe it is true, maybe not. I'd have to go to a more knowledgeable forum to find out.


With TEPCO and Japan keeping everything to themselves, how can anyone vet the information?

All I need to know is a total meltdown and release of all nuclear fuel at the site- all 6 reactors -wouldn't be good.

Hopefully whatever plan they have - works.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
.
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Posts on Fukushima are hard to vet on this site because we have even less knowledge of that subject. Maybe it is true, maybe not. I'd have to go to a more knowledgeable forum to find out.
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o.o patrap..... if the rods touch.... BOOM. :'(
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waiting to see what the 18z gfs brings..
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Bye, francisco.

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Fukushima readies for dangerous operation to remove 400 tons of spent fuel
Published time: October 23, 2013 19:34
Edited time: October 24, 2013 11:53


Fukushima operator TEPCO is getting ready for its toughest and the most dangerous clean-up operation. In November it will try to remove 400 tons of spent fuel from plant’s Reactor No. 4. But even a little mistake may result in a new nuclear disaster.

The operation is scheduled to start in the beginning of November and be completed by around the end of 2014.

Under normal circumstances, the operation to remove all the fuel would take about 100 days. TEPCO (Tokyo Electric Power Co) initially planned to take two years, but reduced the schedule to one year in recognition of the urgency, as even a minor earthquake could trigger an uncontrolled fuel leak.

During this period TEPCO plans to carefully remove more than 1,300 used fuel rod assemblies, packing radiation 14,000 times the equivalent of the Hiroshima nuclear bomb, from their cooling pool.

The base of the pool where the fuel assemblies are situated is 18 meters above ground and the rods are 7 meters under the surface of the water.

TEPCO’s first task is to remove the debris from the Reactor No. 4 fuel pool.

Then, one by one, the fuel rods will be removed from the top store of the damaged building using a crane suspended above the crippled reactor.

Previously a computer-controlled process, this time it has to be done completely manually. And this is what makes this removal operation extremely dangerous.

The fuel rods must be kept submerged and must not touch each other or break.

“The operation to begin removing fuel from such a severely damaged pool has never been attempted before. The rods are unwieldy and very heavy, each one weighing two-thirds of a ton,” fallout researcher Christina Consolo earlier told RT.

Should the attempt fail, a mishandled rod could be exposed to air and catch fire, resulting in horrific quantities of radiation released into the atmosphere. The resulting radiation will be too great for the cooling pool to absorb as it simply has not been designed to do so.

In the worst-case scenario, the pool could come crashing to the ground, dumping the rods together into a pile that could fission and cause an explosion many times worse than in March 2011.

“The worst-case scenario could play out in death to billions of people. A true apocalypse,” Consolo said.

Reactor No. 4 contains 10 times more Cesium-137 than Chernobyl did. This lets scientists warn that in case of another nuclear disaster, it will be the beginning of the ultimate catastrophe of the world and the planet.

“It will be one of the worst, but most important jobs anyone has ever had to do. And even if executed flawlessly, there are still many things that could go wrong,” Consolo said.

The World Nuclear Report, released in July 2013, said “the worst-case scenario” will require evacuation of up to 10 million people within a 250-kilometer radius of Fukushima, including a significant part of Tokyo.

Although some experts are skeptical, TEPCO is confident the operation will be a success. Last year two fuel rods were successfully removed from the pool in a test operation, but back then rod assemblies were empty and posed a far smaller threat.

The operation will be just one installment in the decommissioning process for the plant, and is forecast to take about 40 years and cost $11 billion.

TEPCO, responsible for the clean-up, is struggling to cope with the aftermath of the nuclear disaster, but with the crisis over radiation-contaminated water at the plant, it has been criticized for its ad hoc response to the disaster. In August TEPCO pleaded for overseas help to contain the radioactive fallout, after 18 months of trying to control it internally.

The Japanese government was also ordered to take a more active role in controlling the overflow of radioactive water being flushed over the melted reactors in Units 1, 2 and 3 at the plant.

Three of the Fukushima plant’s nuclear reactors were damaged by an earthquake-triggered tsunami on March 11, 2011, which led to a nuclear disaster. The plant has been accumulating radioactive water ever since. The government imposed a 20-kilometer ‘no-go’ zone around the plant area.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
Quoting 166. GatorWX:
Still looks much better than anything the atl has produced through the last three years.



Ophelia, meh, maybe.



Here gator. MIMIC image...

Link
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Still looks much better than anything the atl has produced through the last three years.



Ophelia, meh, maybe.
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Quoting 163. Dakster:


Just plain lovely, Patrap...

I keep waiting for the international community to demand something be done about Fukushima. Unfortunately, it will take that 'Gamma Shine' event for that to happen.


I'm afraid you may be correct.

And when that "Godzilla is Born", well, Australia will have company seems.

The industry is spending millions a day keeping the Media from the facts in play. But the intranets is killing them as the operation to remove the Fuel rod assemblies starts in November.

That, well, that or a Large EQ will spill it all out like the 3rd Vial from Hades.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
Eeeek you would think it should be more important to all countries just perhaps not all political entities.
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Quoting 162. Patrap:
Radioactive Water Leaking From Fukushima: Why Millions Of Lives Are At Stake

In lieu of the Japanese government doing the right thing and finally coming clean about the epic environmental catastrophe that is Fukushima, which it hopes to simply dig under the rug even as the inconvenient reality gets worse and thousands of tons of radioactive water make their way into the ocean, one is forced to rely on third-party sources for information on this tragedy. We present a useful primer from Scientific American on Fukushima "water retention" problem and "what you need to know about the radioactive water leaking from Japan’s Fukushima nuclear plant into the Pacific Ocean."

Once the integrity of the pool is compromised that will likely lead to more criticalities, which then can spread to other fuel. The heat from this reaction would weaken the structure further, which could then collapse and the contents of the pool end up in a pile of rubble on the ground. This would release an enormous amount of radioactivity, which Arnie Gundersen has referred to as a “Gamma Shine Event” without precedence, and Dr. Christopher Busby has deemed an “Open-air super reactor spectacular.”


Just plain lovely, Patrap...

I keep waiting for the international community to demand something be done about Fukushima. Unfortunately, it will take that 'Gamma Shine' event for that to happen.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
Radioactive Water Leaking From Fukushima: Why Millions Of Lives Are At Stake

In lieu of the Japanese government doing the right thing and finally coming clean about the epic environmental catastrophe that is Fukushima, which it hopes to simply dig under the rug even as the inconvenient reality gets worse and thousands of tons of radioactive water make their way into the ocean, one is forced to rely on third-party sources for information on this tragedy. We present a useful primer from Scientific American on Fukushima "water retention" problem and "what you need to know about the radioactive water leaking from Japan's Fukushima nuclear plant into the Pacific Ocean."

Once the integrity of the pool is compromised that will likely lead to more criticalities, which then can spread to other fuel. The heat from this reaction would weaken the structure further, which could then collapse and the contents of the pool end up in a pile of rubble on the ground. This would release an enormous amount of radioactivity, which Arnie Gundersen has referred to as a Gamma Shine Event without precedence, and Dr. Christopher Busby has deemed an "Open-air super reactor spectacular".
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
I have lived with a cat who could jump that high all by himself, levitating cat. No power plant nuclear or otherwise involved but they do love sleeping in the Sunshine so maybe Solar powered.
Quoting 146. MrMixon:


The kitty got there by putting a nuclear power plant just above sea-level in an earthquake and tsunami-prone area...

(If you mean the actual kitty, not the symbolic kitty - a book shelf out of frame to the right could explain it...)

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Quoting 156. AldreteMichael:
Just read Dr. Master's post today.

What caught my attention was Lekima's "eye expanded greatly in size while the storm stayed at Category 5 strength". What I found odd about this is that it sounded as if the old eye itself grew, as opposed to a new, larger eye replacing the old smaller eye as the old collapses in on itself, effectively meaning that the eyewall replacement cycle was skipped entirely.

If a tropical system can pull this feat, why don't all do so? What made this possible?

Also, if the eyewall replacement cycle can be skipped, how strong can a tropical system actually become? To my understanding, the EWRC is a major hindrance to a storm's power, because it takes time to complete, and the absolute ideal conditions for strengthening tend to fade away.

This is truly fascinating, and frightening.


read my blog for more on that EWRC... I recently wrote one here about it.....
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Quoting 156. AldreteMichael:
Just read Dr. Master's post today.

What caught my attention was Lekima's "eye expanded greatly in size while the storm stayed at Category 5 strength". What I found odd about this is that it sounded as if the old eye itself grew, as opposed to a new, larger eye replacing the old smaller eye as the old collapses in on itself, effectively meaning that the eyewall replacement cycle was skipped entirely.

If a tropical system can pull this feat, why don't all do so? What made this possible?

Also, if the eyewall replacement cycle can be skipped, how strong can a tropical system actually become? To my understanding, the EWRC is a major hindrance to a storm's power, because it takes time to complete, and the absolute ideal conditions for strengthening tend to fade away.

This is truly fascinating, and frightening.


I believe it shows us well that we don't understand RI, nor eyewall replacement cycles as well as previously mentioned.

Katrina was going into a uptick from a new eyewall cycling upwards as it came ashore.



I believe Camille came ashore at a peak uptick and sustained static thru impact inland 20 miles or so as well.

Each storm presents a challenge as to eyewall cycling status as it has a great deal of importance to landfall impacts.

Interesting thoughts.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550

WIND SHEAR OVER 70 KNOTS IN THE GOM!!
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Hurricane Juan near peak intensity

Formed October 26, 1985

Dissipated November 1, 1985

Highest winds 1-minute sustained:

85 mph (140 km/h)

Lowest pressure 971 mbar (hPa); 28.67 inHg

Fatalities 24 direct, 50 indirect

Damage $2.8 billion (1985 USD)

(Includes indirect losses)

Areas affected Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida Panhandle

Part of the 1985 Atlantic hurricane season

Hurricane Juan was a hurricane that formed in October 1985 and looped twice near the Louisiana coast, causing torrential flooding for several days. Juan was the costliest hurricane of the 1985 Atlantic hurricane season, and at the time was among the costliest of all historical U.S. hurricanes.
Juan was the last of three hurricanes to affect Louisiana during the season, including Danny in August and Elena in early September.

An upper level low pressure system combined with a tropical wave developed a broad trough of low pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico on October 24. A rapid increase in cloudiness and convection led to the formation of a tropical depression on October 26. A high pressure system to its northeast forced it westward, where it became Tropical Storm Juan later on October 26.

At the time and throughout its lifetime, Juan was very disorganized, and resembled a subtropical cyclone with its winds well away from the center. A developing trough brought the storm northward, where it became better organized. Early on October 28, Juan reached hurricane strength, and hours later it reached a peak of 85 mph (140 km/h) winds.

Under the influence of a large scale upper-level low pressure area, Juan executed a cyclonic loop off the Louisiana coast later on October 28. It turned northward, and hit near Morgan City, Louisiana on the morning of October 29. Still under the influence of the low, Juan again looped to the southeast, and weakened to a tropical storm over land on October 29, and emerged into the Gulf of Mexico on October 30 over Vermilion Bay.

Juan paralleled the southern Louisiana coastline and crossed the extreme southeast portion of the state on October 31. Over the open waters of the Gulf, Juan restrengthened to a 70 mph (110 km/h) storm, just before hitting near the Alabama/Florida border that night. Once over land, Juan rapidly weakened, and became extratropical over Tennessee on November 1. Its remnants accelerated northward into Canada by the morning of November 3.

Of interest, an upper level low closed off in the wake of Juan, forming a new occluded cyclone, which added to the rainfall totals across Virginia and West Virginia. The combined impact of Juan and the occluded cyclone that formed in its wake led to a flood of record size across West Virginia.


Aftermath[edit]

On October 28, Governor of Louisiana Edwin Edwards declared a state of emergency. By the following day, Governor Edwards requested that Louisiana's United States House of Representatives delegation ask President of the United States Ronald Reagan for a disaster declaration.

President Reagan responded and issued a disaster declaration on November 1, which included the parishes of Ascension, Jefferson, Lafourche, Livingston, Plaquemines, Saint Bernard, Saint Charles, Saint John the Baptist, Saint Tammany, Tangipahoa, and Terrebonne, as well as the Lower Ninth Ward of New Orleans.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
Just read Dr. Master's post today.

What caught my attention was Lekima's "eye expanded greatly in size while the storm stayed at Category 5 strength". What I found odd about this is that it sounded as if the old eye itself grew, as opposed to a new, larger eye replacing the old smaller eye as the old collapses in on itself, effectively meaning that the eyewall replacement cycle was skipped entirely.

If a tropical system can pull this feat, why don't all do so? What made this possible?

Also, if the eyewall replacement cycle can be skipped, how strong can a tropical system actually become? To my understanding, the EWRC is a major hindrance to a storm's power, because it takes time to complete, and the absolute ideal conditions for strengthening tend to fade away.

This is truly fascinating, and frightening.
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Quoting 154. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The CMC nailed Andrea, NAVGEM nailed Ingrid. Every model has their moments and flops. It's just the way the weather works sometimes and how one model sees something different than the others.

True, just saying that generally the CMC, NAVGEM, and NAM are not as reliable as the ECMWF, UKMET, and GFS. And yeah, no model is near perfect.
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Quoting 145. wxchaser97:

It may be good for North America, but for predicting tropical cyclone genesis and intensity it is pretty useless. Pretty much it's in the same category as the CMC and NAVGEM.
The CMC nailed Andrea, NAVGEM nailed Ingrid. Every model has their moments and flops. It's just the way the weather works sometimes and how one model sees something different than the others.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7473
Quoting 151. Torito:


hence, i also said, hurricane landfall locations. :)

Should've clarified that when I said NA, I meant more for mesoscale/winter weather events.
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Quoting 96. DonnieBwkGA:


It's 'new math'. Just like what their engineers have used when computing the safety measures and the cleanup/recovery!


What can go wrong?
Maybe their govt will get the same top-notch kind of crew on that as the USA got for making the Obamacare website!
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Quoting 145. wxchaser97:

It may be good for North America, but for predicting tropical cyclone genesis and intensity it is pretty useless. Pretty much it's in the same category as the CMC and NAVGEM.


hence, i also said, hurricane landfall locations. :)
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Quoting 139. MiamiHeat305:

how?
A lot moisture! and a big blob!,in my opinion if this blob continue to move East and get into the Yucatan Channel it my by the genesis for something,this is the area that we have to keep a eye this time of year for some tropical development,we have to wait and see what happens the next 24 hours.
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Quoting 68. sar2401:

Caleb, the low here in SE Alabama was 39. Should go down to 34 Saturday. It's 72 with a dewpoint of 44. The water temperature off Panama City is 77. We'll have another cold front hit the Gulf Sunday.

The Gulf is a dead doornail when it come to stealing moisture from anywhere.


With the notable exception of the Southern/SE Gulf currently south of the front and south of the shear. Florida Straits and S. FL are still in the zone for potential cyclones.
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Quoting 99. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
• "If an earthquake or other event were to cause this pool to drain this could result in a catastrophic radiological fire involving nearly 10 times the amount of Cs-137 released by the Chernobyl accident." - Mr. Robert Alvarez, former Senior Policy Adviser to the Secretary and Deputy Assistant Secretary for National Security and the Environment at the U.S. Department of Energy.




Learn more: http://www.naturalnews.com/035789_Fukushima_Cesium -137_Plume-Gate.html##ixzz2ifRyjafd


IMO, this sounds like a job for our beloved politicians. What say we all vote to immediately send them there to fix the problem! Even if they fail, we still come out winners, right?
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Quoting 140. WalkingInTheSun:


My question is not "Can the kitty get the pretty balloon?".
My question is,"How in the world did the kitty get up on top of the door in the first place?"

(I will guess via some clever photo-shopping.)


The kitty got there by putting a nuclear power plant just above sea-level in an earthquake and tsunami-prone area...

(If you mean the actual kitty, not the symbolic kitty - a book shelf out of frame to the right could explain it...)
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.