Australia Endures Another Dangerous Fire Weather Day; Lorenzo Dissipates

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on October 24, 2013

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Sydney, Australia and the Blue Mountains have endured a second day of dangerous fire weather conditions without a devastating fire catastrophe ensuing. The high temperature in Sydney on Thursday hit 73°F, with sustained winds of 30 mph gusting to 41 mph, and a humidity as low as 7%. The temperature was nearly 20°F cooler than on Wednesday, but the strong winds and low humidity helped fan the 56 fires still burning across the state of New South Wales. Tragically, a fire-fighting aircraft crashed Thursday during a mission to douse one of the fires, killing the pilot and starting a new fire. The fires have burned more than 120,000 hectares (300,000 acres), and have a perimeter of about 1,600 km (990 miles), and are being blamed for two deaths and over $97 million in damage. Australia has just had its hottest September on record, and the 12-month period ending in August 2013 set a record for the hottest 12-month period in Australian history. Australia's warmest summer and 3rd warmest winter on record occurred during this 12-month period. It has also been quite dry in the fire region over the past few months, with sol moisture levels in the lowest 10% historically. However, the latest drought statement from the Bureau of Meteorology is not showing that long-term drought conditions exist.


Figure 1. Volunteer Christelle Gilmore cares for 'Phoenix', an orphaned baby Swamp Wallaby burned in the Springwood fires on October 22, 2013 in Castlereagh, Australia. Photo by Brendon Thorne/Getty Images.

Raymond weakens, moves away from Mexico
Tropical Storm Raymond continues to move away from the coast of Mexico, and will no longer bring heavy rains to the country. Recent satellite loops show that Raymond is a poorly-organized tropical storm, with just a modest area of heavy thunderstorms.


Figure 2. Rainfall over Mexico from October 15 - 23 from Hurricane Raymond totaled close to 10" near Acapulco, as estimated by NASA's TRMM satellite. Fortunately, Raymond did not move ashore, or else the 15+" inches of rain that fell offshore would have fallen over land. Image credit: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.

Tropical Storm Lorenzo dies in the Middle Atlantic
Tropical Storm Lorenzo has died in the Middle Atlantic, done in by high wind shear. None of the reliable computer models for tropical cyclone genesis are predicting any new storms developing in the coming five days. During the first week of November, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, will bring rising air over the Caribbean, increasing the odds of a tropical storm developing then.

Typhoons Francisco and Lekima weaken
Typhoon Francisco has weakened to a tropical storm, and is bringing heavy rains to Japan as it stays offshore and heads northeast, parallel to the coast. Super Typhoon Lekima, which stayed at Category 5 status for a day and a half, has now weakened to a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds. Satellite loops show that Lekima is still an impressive typhoon with a prominent eye surrounded by a solid ring of eyewall clouds with very cold cloud tops. Lekima is predicted to recurve to the northeast without affecting any land areas. While Lekima was at peak strength between 12 and 18 UTC on Wednesday, its eye expanded greatly in size while the storm stayed at Category 5 strength, something that is very unusual to see (thanks to Scott Bachmeier of the University of Wisconsin CIMSS for the info and animation.)


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Super Typhoon Lekima, taken at approximately 01:05 UTC on October 24, 2013. At the time, Lekima was a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 389. weathermanwannabe:

Never thought of that since I don't follow West Pacific systems as closely.....Do they typically transition and move poleward across the Northern Pacific towards the NW Conus and/or Canada and Alaska?


this general direction.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013

VALID 281200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE/MULTI-DAY SEVERE RISK WILL BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY FOR
AT LEAST PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS ESPECIALLY AROUND DAYS 5-6
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO DAY 7/THURSDAY. WHILE AT LEAST
CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISKS SEEM POSSIBLE ON ONE OR MORE
DAYS...CONSIDERABLE GUIDANCE VARIABILITY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SOUTHWEST STATES UPPER TROUGH PRECLUDES ANY SPECIFIC DELINEATION
OF 30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE RISK AREAS. IN GENERAL...THE 00Z
ECMWF FEATURES A MUCH SLOWER SOLUTION AS COMPARED TO THE FASTER/MORE
POSITIVE-TILT 00Z GFS/UKMET GUIDANCE.

THAT SAID...CURRENT SPECULATIONS ARE THAT SOME SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUCH AS WEST/NORTHWEST TX
INTO WESTERN OK ON DAY 5/TUESDAY...WITH STRONGER TSTMS POTENTIALLY
ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF AZ/NM. A MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE RISK COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO DAY
6/WEDNESDAY...WITH ALL SEVERE FACETS POTENTIALLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OK/TX AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF KS/ARKLATEX.



After that it hopefully comes to the Southeast
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9746

Quoting 390. MoltenIce:
Depends on the track of the storms. Northbound storms tend to transition and will tend to affect Alaska and occasionally the Northeast CONUS.

I believe Ioke (CPAC turn WPAC system) caused a bit of damage in Alaska back in 2006.
Thanks; if memory serves me correct, I think that Levi (near Anchorage) was blogging about that event back in 2006.
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Quoting 386. Pallis:
For C-14 dating the conditions are:

1)The material to be dated must be organic
2)The organism to be tested must have gotten its C-14 from the atmosphere
3)The sample has remained chemically and physically a closed system since its
emplacement.
4) That we know what the atmospheric concentration of C-14 was when the
organism lived.
5) Must not have had contact with any form of radioactivity.
6) Must be earlier than 20,000 years to even be considered for semi accurate dating by this young science.

At least they got 1 and 2 right, huh?
were all goona die..
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Quoting 389. weathermanwannabe:

Never thought of that since I don't follow West Pacific systems as closely.....Do they typically transition and move poleward across the Northern Pacific towards the NW Conus and/or Canada and Alaska?
Depends on the track of the storms. Northbound storms tend to transition and will tend to affect Alaska and occasionally the Northwest CONUS.

I believe Ioke (CPAC turn WPAC system) caused a bit of damage in Alaska back in 2006.

Edit: Oops, northwest. Silly me.
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Quoting 381. MoltenIce:
Expect a bit of rain and winds when Lekima and Francisco become extratropical.

I think...
Never thought of that since I don't follow West Pacific systems as closely.....Do they typically transition and move poleward across the Northern Pacific towards the NW Conus and/or Canada and Alaska?
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IMAGE OF THE DAY WITH ARTICLE:



At a cosmologically crisp one degree Kelvin (minus 458 degrees Fahrenheit) ,the Boomerang Nebula is the coldest known object in the Universe -- colder, in fact, than the faint afterglow of the Big Bang, which is the natural background temperature of space.

The Boomerang Nebula, called the "Coldest place in the Universe", reveals its true shape with ALMA. The background blue structure, as seen in visible light with the Hubble Space Telescope, shows a classic double-lobe shape with a very narrow central region. ALMA's resolution and ability to see the cold molecular gas reveals the nebula's more elongated shape, as seen in red.

Full article here....



Link
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting 385. Torito:


You are in maryland too, right?
D.C.
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Quoting 369. hydrus:
Fraud.? How so.?
For C-14 dating the conditions are:

1)The material to be dated must be organic
2)The organism to be tested must have gotten its C-14 from the atmosphere
3)The sample has remained chemically and physically a closed system since its
emplacement.
4) That we know what the atmospheric concentration of C-14 was when the
organism lived.
5) Must not have had contact with any form of radioactivity.
6) Must be earlier than 20,000 years to even be considered for semi accurate dating by this young science.
As we can see to equate a C-14 year with a calendar year depends on the uniformity of C-14 in the atmosphere for many thousands of years into the past. Measurements were done on organic sedimentary layers worldwide showing that radiocarbon ages do not increase at a steady rate as one goes down layer by layer but, instead, they increase at an accelerated rate. That means that the concentration of C-14 decreased rapidly with depth. This shows that the atmospheric concentration of C-14 was not stable in the past and such dating methods may not be as reliable as we first thought.
At least they got 1 and 2 right, huh?
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Quoting 382. washingtonian115:
Okay.Yeah I drove past that area and it's not exactly flat.It does have "slight" elevation.


You are in maryland too, right?
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
This is carroll county. :P

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting 379. Torito:


Carroll county, its not mountains, but it is much higher than the bay area which is swampy during rainy parts of the year.
Okay.Yeah I drove past that area and it's not exactly flat.It does have "slight" elevation.
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Quoting 378. weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning All.  Outside of the cooler temps in many parts of the Northern US, looks like beautiful football weather this weekend for the College Football games.

Fall is here in earnest but a very dry one so far with little in the form of fronts with considerable precipitation whether rain for the South or snow in the North.  Nothing brewing yet, precipitation-wise,  in the short-term out of the NW where many of the Conus Winter fronts and big lows originate:



 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/wv-l.jpg
Expect a bit of rain and winds when Lekima and Francisco become extratropical.

I think...
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Quoting 377. MoltenIce:
EUREKA!


Im going to start growing those trees now.... Time for me to make bank. ;)
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting 376. washingtonian115:
What part of MD are you from?.Are you in the elevations?


Carroll county, its not mountains, but it is much higher than the bay area which is swampy during rainy parts of the year.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Good Morning All.  Outside of the cooler temps in many parts of the Northern US, looks like beautiful football weather this weekend for the College Football games.

Fall is here in earnest but a very dry one so far with little in the form of fronts with considerable precipitation whether rain for the South or snow in the North.  Nothing brewing yet, precipitation-wise,  in the short-term out of the NW where many of the Conus Winter fronts and big lows originate:



 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/wv-l.jpg
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Quoting 372. Torito:
Scientists Find Gold in Tree Leaves!!!


EUREKA!
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Quoting 368. Torito:


It dropped to 25 here in MD last night. Right now, it is 36 degrees outside.

Link
What part of MD are you from?.Are you in the elevations?
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Pocamocca What in the hell!. - !
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Scientists Find Gold in Tree Leaves!!!


Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting 361. RWT:

Read something similar this morning that said that Arctic is well on it's way to being the coldest in 40 years. The ice should recover by 2025.

I think you must take these two extremes and throw them out.
Shame on me for bringin up the GW topic..The Earth is going to turn into a fireball rivaling the Suns heat energy...:)
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Quoting 359. Pallis:
Radiocarbon 44,000 years? Pshht. Dismissed as fraud right there.
Fraud.? How so.?
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Quoting 367. washingtonian115:
It was 38 degrees this morning where I was.Brr,but at least it's a sign winter will be here in about two months.I however expect this winter to suck bad eggs.


It dropped to 25 here in MD last night. Right now, it is 36 degrees outside.

Link
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
It was 38 degrees this morning where I was.Brr,but at least it's a sign winter will be here in about two months.I however expect this winter to suck bad eggs.
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Lekima has weakened a bit overnight. It is likely a strong cat 2 right now, and is starting to weaken a little bit faster now.


Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Francisco will likely dissipate within the next 24 hours.... It is currently being absorbed by a front.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
GOES has some techincal difficulties right now, but you can see that 95S continues to strengthen.....

Expect it to make a run at TC status.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Expect raymond to undergo a bit of strengthening through the next 48 hours.... It may have a decent shot of returning to hurricane status.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
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Conditons at the South Pole
Weather Blowing snow
Mist
Temperature -50 F (-46 C)
Windchill -83 F (-64 C)

No ice melting there.

Need to find the conditions at the north pole.
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Quoting 356. hydrus:
Arctic temperatures at 44,000-year high Douglas Main LiveScience - 12 hours ago artic temps Gifford Miller As ice caps like this one, nicknamed Sputnik, melt, they expose tiny plants that have been frozen there for millennia, giving clues to the past climate. Plenty of studies have shown that the Arctic is warming and that the ice caps are melting, but how does it compare to the past, and how serious is it? New research shows that average summer temperatures in the Canadian Arctic over the last century are the highest in the last 44,000 years, and perhaps the highest in 120,000 years. "The key piece here is just how unprecedented the warming of Arctic Canada is," Gifford Miller, a researcher at the University of Colorado, Boulder, said in a joint statement from the school and the publisher of the journal Geophysical Research Letters, in which the study by Miller and his colleagues was published online this week. "This study really says the warming we are seeing is outside any kind of known natural variability, and it has to be due to increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere." The study is the first to show that current Arctic warmth exceeds peak heat there in the early Holocene, the name for the current geological period, which began about 11,700 years ago. During this "peak" Arctic warmth, solar radiation was about 9 percent greater than today, according to the study. Miller and his colleagues gauged Arctic temperatures by looking at gas bubbles trapped in ice cores (cylinders drilled from the ice that show layers of snow laid down over time) taken from the region, which allows scientists to reconstruct past temperature and levels of precipitation. They paired this with radiocarbon dating of clumps of moss taken from a melting ice cap on Canada's Baffin Island. Their analysis shows that these plants have been trapped in the ice for at least 44,000 years, and perhaps as long as 120,000 years. Taken together, that data suggest temperatures in the region haven't been this high since perhaps as long as 120,000 years ago, according to the study. The Arctic has been heating up for about a century, but the most significant warming didn't start until the 1970s, Miller said in the statement. "And it is really in the past 20 years that the warming signal from that region has been just stunning," he added. "All of Baffin Island is melting, and we expect all of the ice caps to eventually disappear, even if there is no additional warming.

As ice caps like this one, nicknamed Sputnik, melt, they expose tiny plants that have been frozen there for millennia, giving clues to the past climate.
Radiocarbon 44,000 years? Pshht. Dismissed as fraud right there.
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Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 8:00 AM EDT Friday 25 October 2013
Condition:Partly Cloudy
Pressure:30.2 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:35.8°F
Dewpoint:32.5°F
Humidity:88%
Wind:WNW 7 mph
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
Quoting 356. hydrus:
Arctic temperatures at 44,000-year high Douglas Main LiveScience - 12 hours ago artic temps Gifford Miller As ice caps like this one, nicknamed Sputnik, melt, they expose tiny plants that have been frozen there for millennia, giving clues to the past climate. Plenty of studies have shown that the Arctic is warming and that the ice caps are melting, but how does it compare to the past, and how serious is it? New research shows that average summer temperatures in the Canadian Arctic over the last century are the highest in the last 44,000 years, and perhaps the highest in 120,000 years. "The key piece here is just how unprecedented the warming of Arctic Canada is," Gifford Miller, a researcher at the University of Colorado, Boulder, said in a joint statement from the school and the publisher of the journal Geophysical Research Letters, in which the study by Miller and his colleagues was published online this week. "This study really says the warming we are seeing is outside any kind of known natural variability, and it has to be due to increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere." The study is the first to show that current Arctic warmth exceeds peak heat there in the early Holocene, the name for the current geological period, which began about 11,700 years ago. During this "peak" Arctic warmth, solar radiation was about 9 percent greater than today, according to the study. Miller and his colleagues gauged Arctic temperatures by looking at gas bubbles trapped in ice cores (cylinders drilled from the ice that show layers of snow laid down over time) taken from the region, which allows scientists to reconstruct past temperature and levels of precipitation. They paired this with radiocarbon dating of clumps of moss taken from a melting ice cap on Canada's Baffin Island. Their analysis shows that these plants have been trapped in the ice for at least 44,000 years, and perhaps as long as 120,000 years. Taken together, that data suggest temperatures in the region haven't been this high since perhaps as long as 120,000 years ago, according to the study. The Arctic has been heating up for about a century, but the most significant warming didn't start until the 1970s, Miller said in the statement. "And it is really in the past 20 years that the warming signal from that region has been just stunning," he added. "All of Baffin Island is melting, and we expect all of the ice caps to eventually disappear, even if there is no additional warming.

As ice caps like this one, nicknamed Sputnik, melt, they expose tiny plants that have been frozen there for millennia, giving clues to the past climate.
morning hydrus
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
Arctic temperatures at 44,000-year high Douglas Main LiveScience - 12 hours ago artic temps Gifford Miller As ice caps like this one, nicknamed Sputnik, melt, they expose tiny plants that have been frozen there for millennia, giving clues to the past climate. Plenty of studies have shown that the Arctic is warming and that the ice caps are melting, but how does it compare to the past, and how serious is it? New research shows that average summer temperatures in the Canadian Arctic over the last century are the highest in the last 44,000 years, and perhaps the highest in 120,000 years. "The key piece here is just how unprecedented the warming of Arctic Canada is," Gifford Miller, a researcher at the University of Colorado, Boulder, said in a joint statement from the school and the publisher of the journal Geophysical Research Letters, in which the study by Miller and his colleagues was published online this week. "This study really says the warming we are seeing is outside any kind of known natural variability, and it has to be due to increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere." The study is the first to show that current Arctic warmth exceeds peak heat there in the early Holocene, the name for the current geological period, which began about 11,700 years ago. During this "peak" Arctic warmth, solar radiation was about 9 percent greater than today, according to the study. Miller and his colleagues gauged Arctic temperatures by looking at gas bubbles trapped in ice cores (cylinders drilled from the ice that show layers of snow laid down over time) taken from the region, which allows scientists to reconstruct past temperature and levels of precipitation. They paired this with radiocarbon dating of clumps of moss taken from a melting ice cap on Canada's Baffin Island. Their analysis shows that these plants have been trapped in the ice for at least 44,000 years, and perhaps as long as 120,000 years. Taken together, that data suggest temperatures in the region haven't been this high since perhaps as long as 120,000 years ago, according to the study. The Arctic has been heating up for about a century, but the most significant warming didn't start until the 1970s, Miller said in the statement. "And it is really in the past 20 years that the warming signal from that region has been just stunning," he added. "All of Baffin Island is melting, and we expect all of the ice caps to eventually disappear, even if there is no additional warming.

As ice caps like this one, nicknamed Sputnik, melt, they expose tiny plants that have been frozen there for millennia, giving clues to the past climate.
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Frost advisory in effect from 4 am to 9 am EDT Saturday...

The National Weather Service in New York has issued a frost
advisory... which is in effect from 4 am to 9 am EDT Saturday.

* Locations... southern Fairfield... southern New Haven... southern
Middlesex... southern New London... eastern Passaic... western
Bergen... western Essex... western Union... Rockland and northern
Westchester counties.

* Hazards... areas of frost.

* Temperatures... in the mid 30s.

* Timing... late tonight into early Saturday morning.

* Impacts... sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left
uncovered or unprotected.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A frost advisory means that frost is possible. Sensitive outdoor
plants may be killed if left uncovered.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Frost advisory in effect from 4 am to 9 am EDT Saturday...

The National Weather Service in New York has issued a frost
advisory... which is in effect from 4 am to 9 am EDT Saturday.

* Locations... southern Fairfield... southern New Haven... southern
Middlesex... southern New London... eastern Passaic... western
Bergen... western Essex... western Union... Rockland and northern
Westchester counties.

* Hazards... areas of frost.

* Temperatures... in the mid 30s.

* Timing... late tonight into early Saturday morning.

* Impacts... sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left
uncovered or unprotected.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A frost advisory means that frost is possible. Sensitive outdoor
plants may be killed if left uncovered.

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The GFS has the next system beind much larger than the first.
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Quoting 351. islander101010:
brr 60f and freezing e cen fl.
25 frostydegrees here on the plateau and me grass is bright white..Mornin Largo..:)
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brr 60f and freezing e cen fl.
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Quoting 331. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:






The little jet max in there is where some severe weather could be...Especially if we get some neg tilt..Good morning Keep..
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Quoting 328. KoritheMan:

I've actually heard that water toxicity is only applicable in instances where it is consumed in excess without proper urination. Which, I'm not sure who would be masochistic enough to do that...

Night, Nathan.
I love water, but not that much.
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..
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Quoting 342. nrtiwlnvragn:
UKMET Office


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 14.3N 71.4W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 30.10.2013 14.3N 71.4W WEAK

00UTC 31.10.2013 14.3N 74.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


Wow even the UKMET is jumping on board with the carib storm development
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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