Australia Endures Another Dangerous Fire Weather Day; Lorenzo Dissipates

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on October 24, 2013

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Sydney, Australia and the Blue Mountains have endured a second day of dangerous fire weather conditions without a devastating fire catastrophe ensuing. The high temperature in Sydney on Thursday hit 73°F, with sustained winds of 30 mph gusting to 41 mph, and a humidity as low as 7%. The temperature was nearly 20°F cooler than on Wednesday, but the strong winds and low humidity helped fan the 56 fires still burning across the state of New South Wales. Tragically, a fire-fighting aircraft crashed Thursday during a mission to douse one of the fires, killing the pilot and starting a new fire. The fires have burned more than 120,000 hectares (300,000 acres), and have a perimeter of about 1,600 km (990 miles), and are being blamed for two deaths and over $97 million in damage. Australia has just had its hottest September on record, and the 12-month period ending in August 2013 set a record for the hottest 12-month period in Australian history. Australia's warmest summer and 3rd warmest winter on record occurred during this 12-month period. It has also been quite dry in the fire region over the past few months, with sol moisture levels in the lowest 10% historically. However, the latest drought statement from the Bureau of Meteorology is not showing that long-term drought conditions exist.


Figure 1. Volunteer Christelle Gilmore cares for 'Phoenix', an orphaned baby Swamp Wallaby burned in the Springwood fires on October 22, 2013 in Castlereagh, Australia. Photo by Brendon Thorne/Getty Images.

Raymond weakens, moves away from Mexico
Tropical Storm Raymond continues to move away from the coast of Mexico, and will no longer bring heavy rains to the country. Recent satellite loops show that Raymond is a poorly-organized tropical storm, with just a modest area of heavy thunderstorms.


Figure 2. Rainfall over Mexico from October 15 - 23 from Hurricane Raymond totaled close to 10" near Acapulco, as estimated by NASA's TRMM satellite. Fortunately, Raymond did not move ashore, or else the 15+" inches of rain that fell offshore would have fallen over land. Image credit: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.

Tropical Storm Lorenzo dies in the Middle Atlantic
Tropical Storm Lorenzo has died in the Middle Atlantic, done in by high wind shear. None of the reliable computer models for tropical cyclone genesis are predicting any new storms developing in the coming five days. During the first week of November, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, will bring rising air over the Caribbean, increasing the odds of a tropical storm developing then.

Typhoons Francisco and Lekima weaken
Typhoon Francisco has weakened to a tropical storm, and is bringing heavy rains to Japan as it stays offshore and heads northeast, parallel to the coast. Super Typhoon Lekima, which stayed at Category 5 status for a day and a half, has now weakened to a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds. Satellite loops show that Lekima is still an impressive typhoon with a prominent eye surrounded by a solid ring of eyewall clouds with very cold cloud tops. Lekima is predicted to recurve to the northeast without affecting any land areas. While Lekima was at peak strength between 12 and 18 UTC on Wednesday, its eye expanded greatly in size while the storm stayed at Category 5 strength, something that is very unusual to see (thanks to Scott Bachmeier of the University of Wisconsin CIMSS for the info and animation.)


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Super Typhoon Lekima, taken at approximately 01:05 UTC on October 24, 2013. At the time, Lekima was a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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Last call to read my blog on somewhat historical cold outbreak as well as first snowfall of season for surrounding area:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Bluestorm5/show. html
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8074
Quoting 372. Torito:
Scientists Find Gold in Tree Leaves!!!




So money does grow on trees.
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.
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Quoting 405. Tribucanes:


I disagree. In memory or Gro.
I kid, i kid..:)..I know the Earth is warming..Some day they will determine how much of it mankind is responsible for. If the Earths temperature rose 50 degrees, there would still be someone out there saying that it is a sign of an impending Ice Age, and its a natural cycle unaffected by man....some folks are simply addicted to arguing regardless of the evidence that proves there wrong..:)
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442. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 438. HadesGodWyvern:
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 01-20132014
16:30 PM RET October 25 2013
=============================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 1 (1004 hPa) located at 9.2S 69.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/D 0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=============================
12 HRS: 10.1S 67.6E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 11.1S 66.0E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 12.8S 62.6E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 13.5S 59.4E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
============================
The system is located at about 200 NM in the southwest of Diego Garcia. It is moving west southwestward at 8 knots. The cloud organization has improved again for the last night, but convection remains fluctuating. The trade inflow supplies the low, but the low level convergence is weak equatorward. Upper level conditions are rather good under the northwestern edge of high pressures.

Within the next 36-48 hours, available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement to forecast a west southwestward track towards a weakness in the subtropical high pressures belt. On this track, the upper level environment will be good with weak wind-shear and good divergence poleward. However, the lower layers environment should remain rather unfavorable with a decreasing convergence equatorward and cooler sea surface temperatures (26-27C). Nether the less the low should deepen during this two day window.

From Sunday evening, upper level conditions should deteriorate with a strengthening northward to northwestward wind shear. Then the low is expected to fill up on a westward track.

Intensity of this system does not justify issuance of regular warnings


Is it this guy?
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IMAGE OF THE DAY:



At a cosmologically crisp one degree Kelvin (minus 458 degrees Fahrenheit) ,the Boomerang Nebula is the coldest known object in the Universe -- colder, in fact, than the faint afterglow of the Big Bang, which is the natural background temperature of space.

The Boomerang Nebula, called the "Coldest place in the Universe", reveals its true shape with ALMA. The background blue structure, as seen in visible light with the Hubble Space Telescope, shows a classic double-lobe shape with a very narrow central region. ALMA's resolution and ability to see the cold molecular gas reveals the nebula's more elongated shape, as seen in red.

Full article here....



Link
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
This thing actually has a broad circulation....




Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
438. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 01-20132014
16:30 PM RET October 25 2013
=============================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 1 (1004 hPa) located at 9.2S 69.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/D 0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=============================
12 HRS: 10.1S 67.6E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 11.1S 66.0E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 12.8S 62.6E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 13.5S 59.4E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
============================
The system is located at about 200 NM in the southwest of Diego Garcia. It is moving west southwestward at 8 knots. The cloud organization has improved again for the last night, but convection remains fluctuating. The trade inflow supplies the low, but the low level convergence is weak equatorward. Upper level conditions are rather good under the northwestern edge of high pressures.

Within the next 36-48 hours, available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement to forecast a west southwestward track towards a weakness in the subtropical high pressures belt. On this track, the upper level environment will be good with weak wind-shear and good divergence poleward. However, the lower layers environment should remain rather unfavorable with a decreasing convergence equatorward and cooler sea surface temperatures (26-27C). Nether the less the low should deepen during this two day window.

From Sunday evening, upper level conditions should deteriorate with a strengthening northward to northwestward wind shear. Then the low is expected to fill up on a westward track.

Intensity of this system does not justify issuance of regular warnings
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Latest forecast map for Lekima from the JMA.
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Freeze Watch

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
211 AM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013

...COLD TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR SATURDAY MORNING...

NCZ087-096-099-105-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-252000-
/O.NEW.KILM.FZ.A.0005.131026T0600Z-131026T1300Z/
ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND PENDER-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-
FLORENCE-MARION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUMBERTON...ELIZABETHTOWN...
WHITEVILLE...BURGAW...BENNETTSVILLE...DARLINGTON. ..DILLON...
FLORENCE...MARION
211 AM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* TIMING...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPERIENCED JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE ON SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE
VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. COLD
SENSITIVE PLANTS SHOULD BE PROTECTED OR MOVED INDOORS.


&&

$$

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Cat 4 Raymond?

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
most of the south might get Frost tonight..........
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Quoting 422. GeorgiaStormz:


I already said no I don't want that.

Though I enjoy severe weather, I do not wish for any damage to occur, but regardless, I have no control over the weather anyway.

When people clamor for a beautiful recurving major hurricane, does that mean they mean harm to all ships that may be sailing in the open sea or that they want to cause disruptions in shipping lanes?
Don't bother with him. He is obviously trying to pick a fight. Getting real tired of the morality police on this blog.
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Quoting 426. Torito:


it needs a yellow crayon, 10%.


Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Chilly here in GA

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST WITH TEMPS
POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK IN ATL THE EARLIEST SINCE
1968


It's been so warm the trees and grass are still mostly green. Leaves are beginning to fall slowly though.
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Quoting 425. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Good morning...Vigorous tropical wave riding very low, may be able to develop if it can shed some of that meat as it nears the Lesser Antilles in a few days.



it needs a yellow crayon, 10%.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Good morning...Vigorous tropical wave riding very low, may be able to develop if it can shed some of that meat as it nears the Lesser Antilles in a few days.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
gfs seems to be hinting on something trying to develop at 150 hrs near the leewards aint no joe b but thats what is looks to me
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Quoting 305. nwobilderburg:

Well, now im freaked out about it


There's no reason to freak out. That article is pretty much fact free fear mongering.

We are constantly bombarded by nuclear radiation every day. Everything from your smoke detector to bananas to salt substitute to the dirt in your backyard to the occasional cosmic ray (and even more if you happen to live next to a coal plant). Every life form on earth has evolved coping mechanisms to handle radiation exposure (some more than others), even humans. We wouldn't be here if it didn't.

In order for exposure to radiation to be a threat, you need three things: the rate of radioactivity, the type of radiation, and the rate of bio-accumulation in the body.

For example, take a look at Iodine-131. It has a half-life of 8 days, a biological half-life of 80-100 days (if you aren't getting enough iodine), and is a beta emitter. The short half-life means it is extremely radioactive. The relatively short biological half-life means accumulation is harder, and the beta radiation means that the isotope would need to get inside the body before any damage could take place.

Taken altogether, Iodine-131 is only a short term threat, mainly to those without proper nutrition. After a few weeks it's almost all decayed, and if you have proper nutrition, any that gets in your system will be flushed out quickly. Since it is a beta emitter there isn't a danger from direct external exposure.

Now take a look at iodine-129. It has the same properties as iodine-131, except that it's half-life is about 16 million years and can also emit low energy gamma radiation. It is several orders of magnitude less radioactive than iodine-131, so requires a much much higher accumulation to achieve the same damage potential. Since iodine has a relatively short biological half-life, someone would need persistent high exposure over a long period of time before it increased the risks of something like cancer. However, unlike iodine-131, iodine-129 is an external threat as well since it emits gamma radiation so you wouldn't want to go wallowing in a vat of it.

Now compare these with a really dangerous isotope like strontium-90. Strontium-90 is arguably one of the most dangerous by-products of nuclear activity. It has a half-life of 28 years (highly radioactive), is a beta emitter, and has a biological half-life on average of 18 years (it can bind to bone in place of calcium). You don't want to be exposed to Strontium-90, even at low levels due to the way it can bio-accumulate. Fortunately it is usually produced in much lower quantities than other by-products.

It takes a lot of radiation to increase cancer risks by even 1%, let alone make you sick or kill you. Radiation exposure does not mean you'll get cancer and die. Radiation exposure does not mean you'll grow a third arm out of your head. Radiation exposure is not some magical demon that has the power to kill everyone and everything on earth. Humans, and life in general, are not that fragile.

Whenever you see a story like this, research it. The science is much more informative and a hell of a lot less FUD.


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Quoting 419. NaplesWebDesigner56:

Then let me simplify that for you:

You said you want severe weather in your area. You seemed very excited at the possibility of this taking place. Why would you want roofs torn off people's homes when it's getting cold out? Why would you wish for folks to be without power in 20 degree nights this time of year in the mountains?


I already said no I don't want that.

Though I enjoy severe weather, I do not wish for any damage to occur, but regardless, I have no control over the weather anyway.

When people clamor for a beautiful recurving major hurricane, does that mean they mean harm to all ships that may be sailing in the open sea or that they want to cause disruptions in shipping lanes?
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Quoting 386. Pallis:
For C-14 dating the conditions are:

1)The material to be dated must be organic
2)The organism to be tested must have gotten its C-14 from the atmosphere
3)The sample has remained chemically and physically a closed system since its
emplacement.
4) That we know what the atmospheric concentration of C-14 was when the
organism lived.
5) Must not have had contact with any form of radioactivity.
6) Must be earlier than 20,000 years to even be considered for semi accurate dating by this young science.
As we can see to equate a C-14 year with a calendar year depends on the uniformity of C-14 in the atmosphere for many thousands of years into the past. Measurements were done on organic sedimentary layers worldwide showing that radiocarbon ages do not increase at a steady rate as one goes down layer by layer but, instead, they increase at an accelerated rate. That means that the concentration of C-14 decreased rapidly with depth. This shows that the atmospheric concentration of C-14 was not stable in the past and such dating methods may not be as reliable as we first thought.
At least they got 1 and 2 right, huh?
The study looked at gas bubbles trapped in ice cores, and paired those with carbon dating of clumps of moss trapped in the ice for at least 44 millennia, and as long as 120,000 years. Now, I'm not sure where you got your 20,000 year limit for accuracy in carbon dating, though based on the wording, I suspect it's from one of those "scientists are wrong about everything" Young Earth/Intelligent Design websites. At any rate, it's incorrect; carbon-14 dating is actually limited to about 50,000 years by counting techniques alone, and that can be extended to around 100,000 years by using additional accelerator techniques.
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Quoting 413. GeorgiaStormz:




Name Change?

I don't know why you are under that impression.
I am not you, and so I am unable to answer that question.


Just and ignore that guy, no use fighting with him........
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting 415. mickharp:

For an invest, that's quite the convective burst. Pretty impressive.


As you can see, it has TD force winds now (Green), however I don't think the storms in the Indian ocean are declared TD.. I think they skip right to TC status when it hits 40MPH.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
This might get interesting! Lekima and Francisco could merge eventually, look at the crossing tracks!

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting 402. Neapolitan:
Can you please provide a link to where you read that? Thanks in advance...


We could be waiting awhile seeing no credible scientific study suggests either.
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Quoting 408. NaplesWebDesigner56:

No? Why am I under the impression you are not being honest with me?




Name Change?

I don't know why you are under that impression.
I am not you, and so I am unable to answer that question.
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invest 95S:



No closed circulation yet, but its working on it.


Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
the t-wave is getting huge now.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Raymond looks a bit better than earlier.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting 407. Torito:
Lorenzo may have regenerated into a TD...



don't beg!!!!!!!
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Lorenzo may have regenerated into a TD...

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting 391. hydrus:
were all goona die..


I disagree. In memory or Gro.
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One of the underlying causes of much of the severe weather associated with Conus frontal systems is the current location of the jet stream relative to the low location and mid-level sheer profiles.  This is a good chart (link below) to keep an eye on for an indication of where tornados and or strong straight-line winds might be an issue:



 
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9400
Did a quick blog on TS Raymond.
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Quoting 361. RWT:

Read something similar this morning that said that Arctic is well on it's way to being the coldest in 40 years. The ice should recover by 2025.

I think you must take these two extremes and throw them out.
Can you please provide a link to where you read that? Thanks in advance...
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Quoting 395. EPAsupporter56:

You want destruction?


no.
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Looks mostly like a heavy rain event for the SE possibly.

The trough axis is now further north on both the GFS and ECMWF and the surface low is over the ohio valley and near the great lakes rather than over the cumberland plateau area.

Although shear profiles remain good over the SE on the GFS, with such a distanced surface low and little CAPE, I'm not optimistic about a severe weather threat, nor am I confident that the models will trend south again now that the event is at 144-168hrs.

Time will tell however, and other areas are in the threat zone.
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Quoting 397. MoltenIce:
I think there had been a few systems that had affected the NW CONUS years back.


Yea, but it has become a bit less frequent..... That's a mystery that I would like to know the reason behind.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316

Quoting 396. Torito:


this general direction.

Interesting how these transitioning tropical systems often get caught up in trade winds, and related ocean currents, whether moving from Africa to the Caribbean, or like in this example moving from Asia towards the NW; almost riding the same same ocean currents that brought debris from the Fukashima reactor tsunami towards the Pacific NW Coast of Canada/US.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9400
Quoting 396. Torito:


this general direction.

I think there had been a few systems that had affected the NW CONUS years back.
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Quoting 389. weathermanwannabe:

Never thought of that since I don't follow West Pacific systems as closely.....Do they typically transition and move poleward across the Northern Pacific towards the NW Conus and/or Canada and Alaska?


this general direction.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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