Intriguing Tipping Points TV Series Begins Airing Saturday at 9pm EDT

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 PM GMT on October 18, 2013

Share this Blog
48
+

How does one tell the most important story of our time--the emergence of our great Climate Disruption--without boring one's audience to tears, but at the same time, not resorting to over-hyped spinning of the science? “Tipping Points”, a landmark 6-part TV series that begins airing at 9 pm EDT Saturday, October 19 on The Weather Channel, aims to do just that. "Tipping Points" follows a group of preeminent scientists as they venture off the grid to explore the perilous tipping points making our weather systems more extreme and unpredictable.

The phenomena of “tipping points” follows the concept that, at a particular moment in time, a small change can have a large, long-term consequence on a fragile climate system already in a state of flux. Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. Further, when the situation is pushed past the “tipping point,” it will potentially lead to a chain reaction, putting other ecosystems around the globe in peril. “Tipping Points” will feature several of the most critical examples, including the collapse of the Greenland ice sheet, total melting of the Himalayan icecap glaciers, die-back of the Amazon rainforest, shutdown of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation, and the rapid melt of the permafrost in Siberia. "Tipping Points" will not only show how climate changes affect local communities in exotic and distant locales like the Amazon or Siberia, but how it impacts and is relevant to people from Australia and Asia to Europe, South America to Canada and every community in between. The series explores what is happening at the most dramatic tipping points and looks to find answers to understand what can be done to stem the tide of change before we do irreparable damage, and ultimately put our own lives at risk.



The series is hosted by polar explorer and climate journalist Bernice Notenboom, the first woman to climb Mt. Everest and walk to the North and South Poles. She is joined by a number of leading international environmental scientists in each episode, such as Dr. Jason Box, Dr. Matthew England, Professor Peter Cox, and more. In each episode, Notenboom heads off to a far corner of the world to find scientists in the field undertaking vital climate research to try to understand how the climate system is changing and how long we have to make significant changes before we reach a tipping point--a point of no return when our climate system will be changed irreversibly.



The first episode at 9 pm EDT/8 pm CDT this Saturday will be "Amazon Rainforest Risks". "Tipping Points" host Bernice Notenboom will join Peter Cox, Professor of Climate System Dynamics at the University of Exeter, on an expedition across the vast Amazon Rainforest to explore the mega droughts and tree deaths occurring that threaten the forest's survival this century. The Amazon stores CO2 in its soils and biomass equivalent to about fifteen years of human-caused emissions, so a massive die-back of the forest could greatly accelerate global warming. Photosynthesis in the world's largest rainforest keeps the Earth cooler by taking about 2 billion tons of carbon dioxide out of the air each year. However, exceptional droughts in both 2005 and 2010 reversed this process. The Amazon emitted 3 billion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere in 2005, causing a net 5 billion ton increase in CO2 to the atmosphere--roughly equivalent to 19% of the total CO2 emissions to the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels that year. A 2013 NASA-led study found that an area of the Amazon rainforest twice the size of California continues to suffer from the effects of the 2005 mega drought. A 2008 paper by Professor Cox warned that their climate model predicted a rapidly increasing risk of 2005-like droughts from 1-in-20 years in the present climate to 1-in-2 years by 2025, if we continue emitting CO2 at our current "business-as-usual" pace. A 2013 study by Fu et al. found that the dry season length has grown by about seven days per decade in the southern part of the rainforest. If this trend continues in coming decades at half of that rate, the fire season that contributed to the 2005 drought would become the new norm by the late 21st century. The leader of the study, Rong Fu, explained: "The dry season over the southern Amazon is already a marginal for maintaining rainforest. At some point, if it becomes too long, the rainforest will reach a tipping point."



Typhoon Francisco headed towards Japan
Category 4 Typhoon Francisco continues to intensify over the warm waters of the Western Pacific about 200 miles west of Guam. Even though the eye of Francisco passed more than 150 miles west of Guam Friday morning, the huge storm brought sustained winds of 37 mph, gusting to 46 mph, to the island, along with 6.75" of rain. Satellite loops show that Francisco is well-organized with an impressive area of heavy thunderstorms and a prominent eye. With warm waters that extend to great depth and low wind shear, continued strengthening is likely, and Francisco is forecast to become a super typhoon with 150 mph winds by Saturday as it heads northwest towards Japan. The European model now shows that Francisco will miss Japan, but the GFS model predicts that Francisco will hit Japan on Thursday next week. There is very high uncertainty in the storm's track that far into the future, since the timing of Francisco's turn the northeast is difficult to predict.

The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 598 - 548

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

Looking at the moon... not seeing anything and the peak is around 7:50. -_-
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WOW! The lunar eclipse was amazing! If you have a chance to see it do it! That just changed my life!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
96E up to 40%/60%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI OCT 18 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 564. DonnieBwkGA:


Not all the islands of the Bahamas are low, right? What islands have hills over 50 feet?
Ever hear about the story where the Bahamas recently formed? See, Florida was twice as big as now. The Bahamas, as we know it now, was a huge island, with a lot of little islands around it. Just like Florida, the whole thing had been seabed of one form or another in ancient times, but not too long ago it went under for the most part. It had elephants and other strange creatures. The scenario played out by Uncle Fester is one of the sea taking away the surface evidence depositing it in a deeper lagoon, and coral encrustations covering it followed by slick clays. He is a wise uncle, that Fester. 206 ft. Cat island. That does not count as for where people live.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
About to head out to check out the eclipse. I'll tell you guys if it's anything worth it, and if so will have pictures tomorrow!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 587. MiamiHeat305:
any signs of development in the caribbean anytime soon?



nop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 571. Patrap:
Humans were not even around the last time the atmosphere hit 400ppm CO2 during the Pliocene.

Prolly will be a interesting Century this un.


Smell dem shrimps dey beginning to burl'

Dem humans wilt probly be remembered as da species which took the CO2 levels up above 400 PPM, then expired.
Not too sure who will be doing the remembering though!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
591. MTWX
Quoting 588. ScottLincoln:

Did you ever contact your local NWS office about that, to see if those readings would be considered for the TCR?


We brought it up to our weather flight, but I'm not sure if they ever contacted NWS Jackson...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 578. tramp96:


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weath er-gang/wp/2013/04/25/aers-judah-cohen-produces-am azingly-accurate-winter-outlook/

Looks interesting... now we need the following:
1) more independent groups to find the same relationship and reach similar conclusions
2) more study into the mechanism by which increased Siberian snowcover favors a colder Arctic Oscillation
3) more study into what causes the increased Siberian snowcover in fall
4) more seasonal comparisons comparing forecasts spatially between groups (NOAA vs. Cohen)

The AO is still regarded as a rather unpredictable climate variability index, even more so than ENSO. It certainly would be helpful, at least on a regional scale, to improve predictability.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3316
North Carolina Snowfall Predictions from Ray's Weather...

Boone 38"
Wilkesboro 10" (me!)
Banner Elk 43"
Beech Mountain 100"
Spruce Pine 23"
Sugar Mountain 90"

Reasoning:
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 583. MTWX:


Not sure, but depending on your source, Katrina was a Cat 1 over Columbus, MS ~260 miles north of the coast.

Officially NWS has it as a TS by that point (due to the closest official reporting station being Tuscaloosa, AL), but I maintained the weather equipment here at the base at the time. Our set of NWS certified anemometers outfitted with a recorder measured 5 minute sustained wind of 75-80 MPH over the course of 1.5 hours with the highest gust at 104. Many trees were toppled and a few of our buildings lost their roof.

Did you ever contact your local NWS office about that, to see if those readings would be considered for the TCR?
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3316
any signs of development in the caribbean anytime soon?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 582. Neapolitan:
Hey, this is fun: last Sunday, I discovered a pair of errors in two of the TCRs for this year's tropical storms, and wrote to the NHC about them. They fixed those errors and updated the TCRs, then sent me a gracious thank you note. All of which goes to prove that even "evil" government employees can be pretty cool... ;-)


What were those errors?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 581. hydrus:
This model run sez it all about the upcoming pattern...Link


Francisco,s eye seems to contracted a bit..


CDO has eroded too, so Francisco is likely to begin an EWRC soon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 577. thelmores:

I have always said that having intelligence and using intelligence is two different things.....

Ok, so far so good...
Quoting 577. thelmores:

Was not long ago, in my lifetime, that scientists were pondering global cooling and potential start of new ice age.....

Oh bother. And you were starting of with such potential.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3316
583. MTWX
Quoting 566. DonnieBwkGA:
I thought that Hazel and Katrina were cat 2 100 miles inland but I'm not sure. I'm too hungry to look that up. Gotta eat!


Not sure, but depending on your source, Katrina was a Cat 1 over Columbus, MS ~260 miles north of the coast.

Officially NWS has it as a TS by that point (due to the closest official reporting station being Tuscaloosa, AL), but I maintained the weather equipment here at the base at the time. Our set of NWS certified anemometers outfitted with a recorder measured 5 minute sustained wind of 75-80 MPH over the course of 1.5 hours with the highest gust at 104. Many trees were toppled and a few of our buildings lost their roof.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey, this is fun: last Sunday, I discovered a pair of errors in two of the TCRs for this year's tropical storms, and wrote to the NHC about them. They fixed those errors and updated the TCRs, then sent me a gracious thank you note. All of which goes to prove that even "evil" government employees can be pretty cool... ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13790
This model run sez it all about the upcoming pattern...Link


Francisco,s eye seems to contracted a bit..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 532. Neapolitan:
The Climate Prediction Center's forecast for the next three months calls for above normal temps across a wide, diagonal swath of the Continental US, with no areas expected to see overall below-normal temperatures.

cpc

Well, technically-speaking, no places have a >33% chance of below-normal temperatures. :)
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3316
Quoting 575. Xulonn:
Me too - I abhor sensationalism, but appreciate the good, solid climate science that many of our more intelligent and informed commenters bring to the discussions here!


I have always said that having intelligence and using intelligence is two different things.....

Was not long ago, in my lifetime, that scientists were pondering global cooling and potential start of new ice age.....

Excuse me if I don't just "blindly" accept conclusions based upon flawed science! In an equation, if you put crap in, the answer you get out is crap!

Lastly, even if the globe is warming, regulating and taxing American citizens WILL NOT stop it..... we would be much better suited spending our time and efforts learning how to cope with climate change...... instead of arrogantly believing that we can stop it!

Not sure why I bother..... since their are many "more intelligent and informed" folks that post here.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 571. Patrap:
Humans were not even around the last time the atmosphere hit 400ppm CO2 during the Pliocene.

Prolly will be a interesting Century this un.


Smell dem shrimps dey beginning to burl'

The humans probably won't be around when the CO2 dips back under 400 PPM either!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 568. thelmores:
>
PS - I love tree's, clean water, and clean air...... but I am not fond of GW or Climate Change sensationalism......
Me too - I abhor sensationalism, but appreciate the good, solid climate science that many of our more intelligent and informed commenters bring to the discussions here!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 253. StormTrackerScott:
Notice what happend this year. This is the reason for the recent dud hurricane season. For the kids out there this is the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation .

Quoting 318. StormTrackerScott:
One thing we can agree on is a Cold AMO will drastically reduce the number of major hurricanes over the coming years.
No, the AMO is positive, Scott. Latest monthly value (Sep 2013) is (positive) 0.290. Last time we had a negative monthly value was Jan 2012. Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
573. whitewabit (Mod)


Friday October 18, 2013
TRMM Monitors Powerful Typhoon Francisco
One of the strongest typhoons of 2013 called Francisco developed in the Western Pacific Ocean on October 16, 2013. The image on the left was made from data collected as the TRMM satellite passed over on October 18, 2013 at 1002 UTC when typhoon Francisco with wind speeds of about 125kts (~144 mph) was located west-northwest of Guam. A rainfall analysis that used data from TRMM's Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR) instruments is shown on the left overlaid on an enhanced infrared image from TRMM's Visible and InfraRed Scanner (VIRS). TRMM PR found that rain was falling at a rate of over 113 mm/hr (~4.5 inches) in powerful storms within Francisco's distinct eye wall. The image on the right shows a simulated 3-D cutaway view of typhoon Francisco using data from TRMM's Precipitation Radar (PR) instrument.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 565. FunnelVortex:


It's just such an unrealistic situation. Category 8? Maintaining Cat 2 hurricane strength more than 100 miles inland? Seriously?

Hypothetical Hurricanes Wiki has some of the most insane things ever.


Hugo was a beast as well!

"Hurricane Hugo plowed through the center of South Carolina on September 22, 1989, reaching the North Carolina border 140 miles inland by 8am EDT. Amazingly, Hugo remained at hurricane strength for its entire passage through South Carolina--a full eight hours. The hurricane caused massive damage to forests, buildings, and power lines along the way, killing thirteen South Carolinans in total. Charlotte, North Carolina, over 200 miles inland, and a place of refuge for many South Carolinans that fled the storm, received sustained winds of 69 mph from Hugo--just below the 74-mph threshold of hurricane strength."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Humans were not even around the last time the atmosphere hit 400ppm CO2 during the Pliocene.

Prolly will be a interesting Century this un.


Smell dem shrimps dey beginning to burl'
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129771
Quoting 555. BahaHurican:
This is just really shoddy journalism. The information is so readily available - and for FREE!!! - that it is unbelievable they could get it so wrong.

A compilation of this year's Eastern Hemisphere activity would prolly be quite spectacular...

How far south will the viewing be good on the East coast? I'm trying to decide whether I should make the effort.


From what I see, best viewing will be in northeast, but maybe visible all up and down the coast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 564. DonnieBwkGA:


Not all the islands of the Bahamas are low, right? What islands have hills over 50 feet?
Almost all of them. We are lowlying, but most islands have at least one ridge of "sand dune" type hills over 60 feet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Since life began on this planet millions of years ago, how many tipping points have we had?

I submit there have been "millions" of tipping points.....

If we had "stopped" any one of those tipping points, is it possible that we wouldn't be here?

Something to ponder......

PS - I love tree's, clean water, and clean air...... but I am not fond of GW or Climate Change sensationalism......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
[PDF]
Hurricane Katrina August 23-31, 2005 - National Weather Service
www.nws.noaa.gov/om/assessments/pdfs/Katrina.pdf



WFO Jackson, MS

Within WFO Jackson’s service area, the primary weather-related impact of Katrina was high winds and tornadoes. Katrina produced eleven tornadoes in WFO
Jackson’s service area. Of these tornadoes, two were rated F-2, and the other nine were rated F-1. The damage associated with these tornadoes was mostly fallen and uprooted trees with some minor damage to roofs and buildings. WFO Jackson’s average tornado
warning lead time was 16.5 minutes.

Forty-six fatalities have been attributed to Katrina in WFO Jackson’s service area.
In addition, 568 homes and 102 mobile homes were destroyed, and 5,851 homes suffered significant damage. The State of Mississippi estimates that about one million trees were blown down and more than one million residents in central and eastern Mississippi lost power during Katrina. Wind gusts of 80 to 110 mph were widespread in the southern and
eastern portion of WFO Jackson’s service area.

On August 24, WFO Jackson began to provide information on Katrina to their emergency management community. While NHC forecasts kept Katrina well east of
Mississippi at this time, WFO Jackson advised emergency managers to monitor the storm. By the morning of August 27, NHC’s forecast brought Katrina directly into WFO Jackson’s service area. Later that day, NHC posted a hurricane watch for the north
central Gulf Coast including the coast of Mississippi. WFO Jackson issued a detailed Special Weather Statement that afternoon to raise awareness and recommend preparedness activities:

A LARGE SWATH OF SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AROUND 60 MILES AN HOUR
AND HIGHER...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH...WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AREAS
EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 MONDAY EVENING
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DECIDE WHICH PART OF YOUR HOUSE IS SAFEST
AND CREATE A FAMILY DISASTER PLAN. CHECK YOUR STOCK OF CANNED
FOODS...FIRST AID SUPPLIES...DRINKING WATER AND PRESCRIPTION
DRUGS. MAKE PLANS FOR POSSIBLE PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES AND
LOSS OF WATER OR OTHER UTILITIES.

On August 28, WFO Jackson issued inland hurricane and tropical storm watches
and warnings. Their forecasts, warnings, and statements issued throughout the weekend
stressed the potential for Katrina to produce significant wind damage well inland and
tornadoes. Jeff Mayo, Director of Neshoba County, MS, Emergency Management
Agency said as a result of the threats mentioned in the WFO Jackson forecasts, warnings,
and statements, the county recommended residents leave mobile homes before the
morning of August 29. A number of mobile homes were destroyed by tornadoes in
Neshoba County August 29. Jeff Mayo stated that because of the county’s action, based
on information provided by WFO Jackson, “…undoubtedly lives were saved.”

On the morning of August 29, as Katrina was making landfall in southeast
Louisiana, WFO Jackson shifted its focus to short-term warnings, forecasts, and
statements such as the following Special Weather Statement issued at 9:25 a.m. CDT:

ANALYSIS OF DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE DANGEROUS EYEWALL OF KATRINA WILL LIKELY
BE REACHING THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THESE COUNTIES BY
AROUND MIDDAY.KATRINA MAY STILL BE A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE
....WITH WINDS OF 100 TO 120 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WIND DAMAGE. TREAT THIS SITUATION AS IF IT WERE A TORNADO. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OF THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

WFO Jackson issued a total of 98 watches, warnings, and statements for Katrina
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129771
I thought that Hazel and Katrina were cat 2 100 miles inland but I'm not sure. I'm too hungry to look that up. Gotta eat!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 563. BahaHurican:
OK, that was not so funny...

The hurricane kept increasing in strength, eventually reaching borderline category 5/category 6 intensity by the time it reached the Bahamas on September 9. Hurricane-force winds extended for 150 miles (240 km/h), and tropical-storm-force winds extended 350 miles (560 km), with an eye that was 30 miles across. The hurricane hit the area in the middle of the day, trapping thousands who were evacuating the islands. The hurricane's 190 mph (305 km/h) winds leveled most of the cities in the nation, including Nassau, which was leveled by the 25-foot (7.6 meter) storm surge and 185 mph (300 km/h) winds. The nation was devastated, with over 25,000 dead. Many of the people died as the winds actually crushed thousands of cars, which complicated evacuations.

See, there's nothing like inaccurate info to detract from the effectiveness of a piece.

1) No matter how bad the storm is here, nobody would be evacuating the islands once the TCI were under the storm... there's maybe 60 miles between the TCI and the Bahamas... not that anybody who lives here would evacuate anyway....

2) There are only TWO cities, Nassau and Freeport. I'd expect both of them to be leveled. Maybe communities would be better?

3)Nobody would be attempting to evacuate anywhere during a hurricane in a car in the Bahamas. And cars would more likely be washed away by storm surge [washover] than crushed by wind.



It's just such an unrealistic situation. Category 8? Maintaining Cat 2 hurricane strength more than 100 miles inland? Seriously?

Hypothetical Hurricanes Wiki has some of the most insane things ever.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 563. BahaHurican:
OK, that was not so funny...

The hurricane kept increasing in strength, eventually reaching borderline category 5/category 6 intensity by the time it reached the Bahamas on September 9. Hurricane-force winds extended for 150 miles (240 km/h), and tropical-storm-force winds extended 350 miles (560 km), with an eye that was 30 miles across. The hurricane hit the area in the middle of the day, trapping thousands who were evacuating the islands. The hurricane's 190 mph (305 km/h) winds leveled most of the cities in the nation, including Nassau, which was leveled by the 25-foot (7.6 meter) storm surge and 185 mph (300 km/h) winds. The nation was devastated, with over 25,000 dead. Many of the people died as the winds actually crushed thousands of cars, which complicated evacuations.

See, there's nothing like inaccurate info to detract from the effectiveness of a piece.

1) No matter how bad the storm is here, nobody would be evacuating the islands once the TCI were under the storm... there's maybe 60 miles between the TCI and the Bahamas... not that anybody who lives here would evacuate anyway....

2) There are only TWO cities, Nassau and Freeport. I'd expect both of them to be leveled. Maybe communities would be better?

3)Nobody would be attempting to evacuate anywhere during a hurricane in a car in the Bahamas. And cars would more likely be washed away by storm surge [washover] than crushed by wind.



Not all the islands of the Bahamas are low, right? What islands have hills over 50 feet?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 513. FunnelVortex:


ROFL!
OK, that was not so funny...

The hurricane kept increasing in strength, eventually reaching borderline category 5/category 6 intensity by the time it reached the Bahamas on September 9. Hurricane-force winds extended for 150 miles (240 km/h), and tropical-storm-force winds extended 350 miles (560 km), with an eye that was 30 miles across. The hurricane hit the area in the middle of the day, trapping thousands who were evacuating the islands. The hurricane's 190 mph (305 km/h) winds leveled most of the cities in the nation, including Nassau, which was leveled by the 25-foot (7.6 meter) storm surge and 185 mph (300 km/h) winds. The nation was devastated, with over 25,000 dead. Many of the people died as the winds actually crushed thousands of cars, which complicated evacuations.

See, there's nothing like inaccurate info to detract from the effectiveness of a piece.

1) No matter how bad the storm is here, nobody would be evacuating the islands once the TCI were under the storm... there's maybe 60 miles between the TCI and the Bahamas... not that anybody who lives here would evacuate anyway....

2) There are only TWO cities, Nassau and Freeport. I'd expect both of them to be leveled. Maybe communities would be better?

3)Nobody would be attempting to evacuate anywhere during a hurricane in a car in the Bahamas. And cars would more likely be washed away by storm surge [washover] than crushed by wind.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 560. DonnieBwkGA:


So that's the 'dry heat' I keep hearing about! Sounds nice. I wish it happened here.


I have seen it as low as 4%, that is DRY... this is just nice. Good water cooler weather, but not Hot enough to need it really......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 552. DonnieBwkGA:


Who said we would have 122F sea temps by 2018? I don't remember anyone saying that. If you can give us a link I'd appreciate it.


Those voices in his head.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 559. PedleyCA:
Riverside, Jurupa Valley, CA (Indian Hills), Jurupa Valley, California (PWS)
Updated: 3:02 PM PDT on October 18, 2013
Clear
86.3 �F
Clear
Humidity: 19%
Dew Point: 39 �F

Wind: 4.6 mph from the SE
Wind Gust: 15.5 mph
Pressure: 29.89 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 83 �F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 6.0 out of 16
Pollen: 4.40 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1000 ft

88F at the Airport across the river. Lovely Day.



So that's the 'dry heat' I keep hearing about! Sounds nice. I wish it happened here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Riverside, Jurupa Valley, CA (Indian Hills), Jurupa Valley, California (PWS)
Updated: 3:02 PM PDT on October 18, 2013
Clear
86.3 F
Clear
Humidity: 19%
Dew Point: 39 F

Wind: 4.6 mph from the SE
Wind Gust: 15.5 mph
Pressure: 29.89 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 83 F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 6.0 out of 16
Pollen: 4.40 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1000 ft

88F at the Airport across the river. Lovely Day.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
558. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #26
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON FRANCISCO (T1327)
6:00 AM JST October 19 2013
=====================================

Near Marianas Island

At 21:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Francisco (920 hPa) located at 16.0N 140.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 150 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 9 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
180 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 18.4N 138.1E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
45 HRS: 20.5N 136.8E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan
69 HRS: 23.5N 135.3E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 556. wxchaser97:

And yet, watch it develop only into a weak TS and then dissipate for no reason since it's 2013. :v

It better not. This will have the support of both a robust MJO signature in the upper-levels and a convectively-coupled kelvin wave.

12z EC deepens it to a strong Category 2 hurricane. It would not surprise me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 545. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Invest 96E appears destined to develop into the strongest tropical cyclone of the 2013 Pacific hurricane season.

SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 4 3 10 4 5 1 5 7 5 5
SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.8
700-500 MB RH 74 75 76 76 75 77 75 74 70 67 62 60 62

And yet, watch it develop only into a weak TS and then dissipate for no reason since it's 2013. :v
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 485. JrWeathermanFL:
I hate watching weather shows in which half the information is wrong...
Like, "Andrew is the largest natural disaster in America" and "Hurricanes pack winds UP TO 150mph"

Later in the show they said Allen had 190mph and the 1900 Galveston was the largest natural disaster in America, therefore contradicting themselves..
This is just really shoddy journalism. The information is so readily available - and for FREE!!! - that it is unbelievable they could get it so wrong.

Quoting 488. JSparrow:
Digital Typhoon has a nice animation of the last 120 hrs, with Wipha brushing Japan, and Francisco following.

Link


Francisco:

A compilation of this year's Eastern Hemisphere activity would prolly be quite spectacular...

Quoting 505. Hurricane614:


I plan to. Great viewing conditions around here. Do you know what time it peaks?
How far south will the viewing be good on the East coast? I'm trying to decide whether I should make the effort.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 545. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Invest 96E appears destined to develop into the strongest tropical cyclone of the 2013 Pacific hurricane season.

SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 4 3 10 4 5 1 5 7 5 5
SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.8
700-500 MB RH 74 75 76 76 75 77 75 74 70 67 62 60 62
Raymond had always been a strong name used for strong storms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 547. BahaHurican:
Sounds about right. When it's busy I may post 30 times a day. I prolly post more here in the off season than you do, Teddy, but then I also go for days at a time without any posts at all.

I think of blogging as part of my life, like going to a coffee shop and meeting up with friends, only with wx benefits... lol...


hold up..I just saw this..11,000 comments, yes but during that time Wilmington has been threatened by two category 4 hurricanes..Earl and Irene..and we had a close brush with Sandy..I think a lot of my comments came from those situations along with tornado threats and snow :)..as TA said sorta, I'm not sitting on here every day posting comments 24/7..its usually during a heightened period..I have been a member since August 2006 with only 11000 comments and maybe about 4 blog entries..I think that is still pretty low compared to the superusers here..your equation doesn't accurately depict the situation Teddy..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 543. yoboi:


some have predicted that will happen by 2018 we shall see how the prediction turns out.......


Who said we would have 122F sea temps by 2018? I don't remember anyone saying that. If you can give us a link I'd appreciate it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning Super Typhoon Francisco.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 546. Jedkins01:


Yeah that's my point, yet I've seen/heard tornadoes referred to as "storms" an awful lot, lol.



What is a storm? The meteorological definition. Does it have a size or duration limit?

I don't know how to define a storm but I know it when I see one ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 472. PensacolaDoug:
I haven't insulted anyone today.



But it's still early.
Don't do it, Doug!!!

:o)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 546. Jedkins01:


Yeah that's my point, yet I've seen/heard tornadoes referred to as "storms" an awful lot, lol.



LOL. Yeah, I'm like "I think it needs to be bigger and independent to be called a storm" a lot when I hear that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 598 - 548

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
28 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron