Intriguing Tipping Points TV Series Begins Airing Saturday at 9pm EDT

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 PM GMT on October 18, 2013

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How does one tell the most important story of our time--the emergence of our great Climate Disruption--without boring one's audience to tears, but at the same time, not resorting to over-hyped spinning of the science? “Tipping Points”, a landmark 6-part TV series that begins airing at 9 pm EDT Saturday, October 19 on The Weather Channel, aims to do just that. "Tipping Points" follows a group of preeminent scientists as they venture off the grid to explore the perilous tipping points making our weather systems more extreme and unpredictable.

The phenomena of “tipping points” follows the concept that, at a particular moment in time, a small change can have a large, long-term consequence on a fragile climate system already in a state of flux. Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. Further, when the situation is pushed past the “tipping point,” it will potentially lead to a chain reaction, putting other ecosystems around the globe in peril. “Tipping Points” will feature several of the most critical examples, including the collapse of the Greenland ice sheet, total melting of the Himalayan icecap glaciers, die-back of the Amazon rainforest, shutdown of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation, and the rapid melt of the permafrost in Siberia. "Tipping Points" will not only show how climate changes affect local communities in exotic and distant locales like the Amazon or Siberia, but how it impacts and is relevant to people from Australia and Asia to Europe, South America to Canada and every community in between. The series explores what is happening at the most dramatic tipping points and looks to find answers to understand what can be done to stem the tide of change before we do irreparable damage, and ultimately put our own lives at risk.



The series is hosted by polar explorer and climate journalist Bernice Notenboom, the first woman to climb Mt. Everest and walk to the North and South Poles. She is joined by a number of leading international environmental scientists in each episode, such as Dr. Jason Box, Dr. Matthew England, Professor Peter Cox, and more. In each episode, Notenboom heads off to a far corner of the world to find scientists in the field undertaking vital climate research to try to understand how the climate system is changing and how long we have to make significant changes before we reach a tipping point--a point of no return when our climate system will be changed irreversibly.



The first episode at 9 pm EDT/8 pm CDT this Saturday will be "Amazon Rainforest Risks". "Tipping Points" host Bernice Notenboom will join Peter Cox, Professor of Climate System Dynamics at the University of Exeter, on an expedition across the vast Amazon Rainforest to explore the mega droughts and tree deaths occurring that threaten the forest's survival this century. The Amazon stores CO2 in its soils and biomass equivalent to about fifteen years of human-caused emissions, so a massive die-back of the forest could greatly accelerate global warming. Photosynthesis in the world's largest rainforest keeps the Earth cooler by taking about 2 billion tons of carbon dioxide out of the air each year. However, exceptional droughts in both 2005 and 2010 reversed this process. The Amazon emitted 3 billion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere in 2005, causing a net 5 billion ton increase in CO2 to the atmosphere--roughly equivalent to 19% of the total CO2 emissions to the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels that year. A 2013 NASA-led study found that an area of the Amazon rainforest twice the size of California continues to suffer from the effects of the 2005 mega drought. A 2008 paper by Professor Cox warned that their climate model predicted a rapidly increasing risk of 2005-like droughts from 1-in-20 years in the present climate to 1-in-2 years by 2025, if we continue emitting CO2 at our current "business-as-usual" pace. A 2013 study by Fu et al. found that the dry season length has grown by about seven days per decade in the southern part of the rainforest. If this trend continues in coming decades at half of that rate, the fire season that contributed to the 2005 drought would become the new norm by the late 21st century. The leader of the study, Rong Fu, explained: "The dry season over the southern Amazon is already a marginal for maintaining rainforest. At some point, if it becomes too long, the rainforest will reach a tipping point."



Typhoon Francisco headed towards Japan
Category 4 Typhoon Francisco continues to intensify over the warm waters of the Western Pacific about 200 miles west of Guam. Even though the eye of Francisco passed more than 150 miles west of Guam Friday morning, the huge storm brought sustained winds of 37 mph, gusting to 46 mph, to the island, along with 6.75" of rain. Satellite loops show that Francisco is well-organized with an impressive area of heavy thunderstorms and a prominent eye. With warm waters that extend to great depth and low wind shear, continued strengthening is likely, and Francisco is forecast to become a super typhoon with 150 mph winds by Saturday as it heads northwest towards Japan. The European model now shows that Francisco will miss Japan, but the GFS model predicts that Francisco will hit Japan on Thursday next week. There is very high uncertainty in the storm's track that far into the future, since the timing of Francisco's turn the northeast is difficult to predict.

The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 639. Hurricane614:
Can somebody explain to me exactly what eyewall replacement cycle is. I know what it is, but what does it mean? Strengthening? Weakening? Speed?

Eyewall replacement cycles are natural within intense tropical cyclones, and almost all systems with winds above 115 mph go through at least one in their lifespan. There are have been many hypotheses on what causes EWRCs, but none have been proven and trying to identify what causes the process has largely been ceased. In an EWRC, outer rainbands contract to form a larger eyewall with a moat of subsidence between the new and old eyewalls. Because the inner eyewall can no longer draw in moisture (it's being robbed by the outer eyewall), it dissipates. Once this happens, the storm loses organization; the pressure rises and the maximum winds come down. However, the storm expands greatly, making it much more of a threat to land (see also: Irene '11, Ike '08, Igor '10). After a while, the outer eyewall contracts to the size of a normal eyewall (10-15 nautical miles) and the system is able to regain intensity.
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Second most intense tropical cyclone in 2013 thus far.
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TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0032 UTC SAT OCT 19 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962013) 20131019 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
131019 0000 131019 1200 131020 0000 131020 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.7N 97.2W 11.3N 98.5W 11.6N 99.3W 11.9N 99.8W
BAMD 10.7N 97.2W 11.2N 98.4W 11.5N 99.3W 11.6N 99.9W
BAMM 10.7N 97.2W 11.6N 98.5W 12.2N 99.5W 12.6N 100.2W
LBAR 10.7N 97.2W 11.4N 99.1W 12.3N 100.9W 13.2N 102.4W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 31KTS 43KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 31KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
131021 0000 131022 0000 131023 0000 131024 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.2N 100.1W 13.0N 100.3W 13.4N 100.6W 13.6N 101.4W
BAMD 11.7N 100.4W 12.0N 100.9W 12.5N 101.2W 12.9N 101.7W
BAMM 12.8N 100.4W 13.3N 100.8W 13.9N 100.9W 14.3N 101.4W
LBAR 14.4N 103.5W 17.7N 104.0W 21.6N 102.2W 25.8N 98.1W
SHIP 56KTS 72KTS 79KTS 88KTS
DSHP 56KTS 72KTS 79KTS 88KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.7N LONCUR = 97.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 10.3N LONM12 = 95.1W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 9.8N LONM24 = 92.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 170NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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645. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Isn't it a bit early for Southern Hemisphere seasons?


not really.. there has been October cyclones in the southern Pacific.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Xavier

article from Wiki
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Quoting 640. TropicalAnalystwx13:
This little guy will threaten Tropical Storm Marco's record as smallest tropical cyclone on record if it's designated. With a well-organized ball of convection atop a well-defined center of circulation and winds near 30-35kt, I would indeed declare this. Its name would be Ian.

This is the South Pacific, by the way.


Isn't it a bit early for Southern Hemisphere seasons?
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643. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
JMA thinks the Dvorak could go up to T7.5 in 24 hours.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON FRANCISCO (T1327)
9:00 AM JST October 19 2013
=====================================

Near Marianas Island

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Francisco (920 hPa) located at 16.2N 140.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 150 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 8 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
180 NM from the center in north quadrant
150 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 18.3N 137.8E - 115 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 20.6N 136.1E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan
72 HRS: 23.6N 134.6E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan
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Quoting 622. Xulonn:
Again, I agree with you on some of your points. I don't "blindly accept" conclusions based on flawed science either. and that part of the equation comes mostly from people like scientists Richard Lintzen, Judith Curry, Roy Spencer, and others, plus denialist blogs and websites, some openly funded by the fossil fuel industry and their conservative-backed so-called "think tanks.' Such bloggers include Anthony Watts, whoever calls himself Steven Goddard, and many others. Your comment about "In an equation, if you put crap in, the answer you get out is crap!" is a perfect description for the just mentioned scientists, bloggers and their websites.

Do you know anyone who is even speculating how low-lying areas like Florida, Bangladesh and California's great central valley can "adapt" to at least 5 or 6 feet of sea level increase in 2 or 3 generations? Parts of Miami are already flooding in the annual high tides and sea level rise is such a well documented fact, that few even try to dispute it - and those who do are the ones not using their intelligence!

Florida is being dragged at 1 inch per annum from Africa. The part that lifts, and erodes just as quickly, is Venice, Sanibel, parts of Port Charlotte, Pine Island, St. Petersburg, Naples to a lesser degree, and ect. The very well known 500 year deluge of Miami(now)is because, as the new lifts, the back end falls. Right now, we as a state are rising in the middle in some parts, but not others. I would contact your trusted real estate agent. The sea has risen by a very slight degree, but you blaming rising seas sinking Miami is very unscientific. If you Google Earth real close you can see the huge drop right off shore. If you peruse the state and local news papers in the last 100 years you will find things that were on land relatively recently in the bay of Biscayne. The land has sunk, and you can easily go north to Jacksonville, St Augustine, Indian River, or Jupiter to corroborate your own investigation. They taught us this stuff in the 80's. What in Jack Snot are they teaching you kids now'a'days?
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641. auburn (Mod)
you folks all rock..I learn so much from you!
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This little guy will threaten Tropical Storm Marco's record as smallest tropical cyclone on record if it's designated. With a well-organized ball of convection atop a well-defined center of circulation and winds near 30-35kt, I would indeed declare this. Its name would be Ian.

This is the South Pacific, by the way.


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Can somebody explain to me exactly what eyewall replacement cycle is. I know what it is, but what does it mean? Strengthening? Weakening? Speed?
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00z Best Track for 96E.

EP, 96, 2013101900, , BEST, 0, 107N, 972W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 170, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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Quoting 630. MisterPerfect:

[...] By: Marc Morano - Climate Depot [...]

Climate Denial Playbook: Marc Morano's History of Bullying Scientists


(Click for larger image)
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Quoting 625. frankfish:

Sounds way too high, Xulonn. 5 or 6 feet. No way. Adjust your numbers.
Thanks for the polite response, Frank. The IPCC is extraordinarily conservative and cautious in their projections of projected sea level rise in the 21st century. I suspect that one or more tipping points Dr. Masters discussed may kick in and render the current "official" projections moot - and I'm not alone in that line of thinking.

Quoting livescience.com, 9/24/2013
"The big argument in the scientific community is, 'How much is this going to look like past events?" because this really is different," said Josh Willis, a climate scientist at NASA%u2019s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. "We are dumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere faster than anything done in millions of years, and the temperature is changing really rapidly."

What%u2019s more, after the peak of the last ice age, much more ice was available to melt and raise sea levels than at present, he said.

But the other alternative, physics-based models, still don't account for all of the processes that can influence changing sea levels, potentially underestimating the impact. "So we are stuck between a rock and a hard place," Willis said.

"The 2 meters by 2100 is cited a lot, but if you ask scientists what they think of that number, they say it is probably a little high, maybe 1.5 meters [4.9 feet] is more like an upper bound," Willis said.


Edit: Here's another LINK to the discussion this subject. It seems that there is a lot of dissent on the subject - searching the internet brings up lots of discussions of this - and they are nearly all contending that sea levels are likely to rise much more rapidly than currently predicted by the very conservative models.
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Western Caribbean shear wise couldn't be any more conducive for tropical development, something needs to release the heat build up around here, it's stifling . I think Mother Nature will take care of it before long.
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ClimateDepot.com founder Marc Morano has been called "the Matt Drudge of climate denial," the "king of the skeptics," and "a central cell of the climate-denial machine," and he revels in these descriptions. Although he has no scientific expertise, he is adamant that manmade global warming is a "con job" based on "subprime science." Morano gained prominence working for two of the most vocal climate deniers in the U.S.: Sen. James Inhofe (R-OK), who notoriously called climate change "the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people," and Rush Limbaugh, who we named Climate Change Misinformer of the Year in 2011 for his steadfast denial of climate science and wild conspiracy theories about the climate change "hoax."

These days Morano is paid by an industry-funded group to run the climate denial website ClimateDepot.com. At Climate Depot, Morano serves as the de facto research department for the right-wing media's attacks on climate science, and mobilizes his readers to target individual scientists and reporters for telling the public about climate change threats. The site was instrumental in manufacturing the 2009 "Climategate" controversy, which Morano incorrectly claimed exposed "deliberate manipulation of facts and data" by climate scientists. Morano is a darling of the organization most committed to climate denial, the Heartland Institute. He regularly speaks at their conferences and defended their controversial billboard comparing those who accept climate science to "murderers, tyrants, and madmen" including the Unabomber Ted Kaczynski.
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TRMM 3-D flyby of Francisco:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xzr3kUZAEjw&featur e=youtube_gdata_player


This is a simulated 3-D flyby animation over Super-Typhoon Francisco on Oct. 18 using TRMM Satellite Precipitation Radar data. Credit: SSAI/NASA, Hal Pierce.
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631. whitewabit (Mod)
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New Study: ’2013 ranks as one of the least extreme U.S. weather years ever’– Many bad weather events at ‘historically low levels’
By: Marc Morano - Climate DepotOctober 18, 2013 12:25 PM

'Whether you’re talking about tornadoes, wildfires, extreme heat or hurricanes, the good news is that weather-related disasters in the US are all way down this year compared to recent years and, in some cases, down to historically low levels.'

Tornadoes: 'lowest total in several decades'

Number of wildfires: 'On pace to be the lowest it has been in the past ten years'

Extreme Heat: The number of 100 degree days may 'turn out to be the lowest in about 100 years of records'

Hurricanes: 'We are currently in the longest period (8 years) since the Civil War Era without a major hurricane strike in the US (i.e., category 3, 4 or 5)' ( last major hurricane to strike the US was Hurricane Wilma in 2005)

www.climatedepot.com/2013/10/18/new-study-2013-ra nks-as-one-of-the-least-extreme-us-weather-years-e ver-many-bad-weather-events-at-historically-low-le vels
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Quoting 626. Hurricane614:
I remember "Winter Storm Nemo's" weather channel forecast. 1-3 inches of snow possible. It went up a little to 3-6 inches, and until right up to the storm it stayed that way. We ended up with 14 inches. All thought this hurricane season, they have said they don't expect development, because of "extremely dry air" around the storm, but whenever they say that it developed. With Jerry, I remember Carl Parker specifically say, "I think the odds will go down on invest 96L, because of strong wind shear. It appears that this will get ripped apart soon, and we don't expect any development. Later that day the headline of weather.com is New Tropical Storm forms in Atlantic I almost find it funny, on how wrong they can be. Even when my town got heavy rain for 2 hours straight, and picked up 5 inches, they had are forecast at 60% of light rain. Does anyone else feel this way or it it just me?

Weather is always changing and we still have a lot to learn. That's why meteorologists are in the so-dubbed "problem-solving business".
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628. whitewabit (Mod)
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Quoting 616. Xyrus2000:

...[Polite and solid analysis and debunking of a post]
Excellent post - both the form and content support my comment about intelligent and informed people here. Thanks!
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I remember "Winter Storm Nemo's" weather channel forecast. 1-3 inches of snow possible. It went up a little to 3-6 inches, and until right up to the storm it stayed that way. We ended up with 14 inches. All thought this hurricane season, they have said they don't expect development, because of "extremely dry air" around the storm, but whenever they say that it developed. With Jerry, I remember Carl Parker specifically say, "I think the odds will go down on invest 96L, because of strong wind shear. It appears that this will get ripped apart soon, and we don't expect any development. Later that day the headline of weather.com is New Tropical Storm forms in Atlantic I almost find it funny, on how wrong they can be. Even when my town got heavy rain for 2 hours straight, and picked up 5 inches, they had are forecast at 60% of light rain. Does anyone else feel this way or it it just me?
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Quoting 601. hydrus:
Cave divers down 500 feet in the Bahamas found some curious stuff at the bottom...Bat guano. things were alot different back then..and it was not long ago in geologic terms.
Not long indeed. Here in Florida we have a Yankee university that has taken the title of fossil Nazis. They take over sites, put up signs, and lobby for extremely stiff penalties for disturbance, but stop no construction development for any reason. We do our own research and come up with our own conclusions as a result. I would never tell them of the least important dig. My take is that it is better to leave it in the ground until an advanced civilization comes along, or dig it up and secret it away to higher elevations with the soil attached if threatened by a white guy wearing a hard hat with a small army of illegal aliens.
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long range..but exciting to see..

18z GFS snow depth map





Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
Quoting 577. thelmores:


I have always said that having intelligence and using intelligence is two different things.....

Was not long ago, in my lifetime, that scientists were pondering global cooling and potential start of new ice age.....

Excuse me if I don't just "blindly" accept conclusions based upon flawed science! In an equation, if you put crap in, the answer you get out is crap!

Lastly, even if the globe is warming, regulating and taxing American citizens WILL NOT stop it..... we would be much better suited spending our time and efforts learning how to cope with climate change...... instead of arrogantly believing that we can stop it!

Not sure why I bother..... since their are many "more intelligent and informed" folks that post here.....
Again, I agree with you on some of your points. I don't "blindly accept" conclusions based on flawed science either. and that part of the equation comes mostly from people like scientists Richard Lintzen, Judith Curry, Roy Spencer, and others, plus denialist blogs and websites, some openly funded by the fossil fuel industry and their conservative-backed so-called "think tanks.' Such bloggers include Anthony Watts, whoever calls himself Steven Goddard, and many others. Your comment about "In an equation, if you put crap in, the answer you get out is crap!" is a perfect description for the just mentioned scientists, bloggers and their websites.

Do you know anyone who is even speculating how low-lying areas like Florida, Bangladesh and California's great central valley can "adapt" to at least 5 or 6 feet of sea level increase in 2 or 3 generations? Parts of Miami are already flooding in the annual high tides and sea level rise is such a well documented fact, that few even try to dispute it - and those who do are the ones not using their intelligence!

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Quoting 586. CybrTeddy:


What were those errors?


spelling errors..


Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
Quoting 614. whitewabit:


I wouldn't call 53K people uninhabited ..


The is almost that many people in Saipan alone. However, there is a long string of nearly empty islands stretching to the north from Guam Link

Link

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Just took this shot, Here is a Cayman Moon.
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Quoting 568. thelmores:
Since life began on this planet millions of years ago, how many tipping points have we had?

I submit there have been "millions" of tipping points.....

If we had "stopped" any one of those tipping points, is it possible that we wouldn't be here?

Something to ponder......

PS - I love tree's, clean water, and clean air...... but I am not fond of GW or Climate Change sensationalism......
Lead-based underwear designed in Japan to help fight Fukushima disaster
RT - ‎3 hours ago‎ Then maybe you would be interested in the latest fashions! Carbon/lead wetsuit to work? why not? All the others will be envious while you enjoy the work day, and no checking for extra growths on the weekend. Order now for custom American fits!
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A bit random but I thought I would mention it. The USS Zumwalt is set to be commissioned tomorrow. This is the latest destroyer in the US arsenal and is set to replace Arleigh Burke class destroyers.



Currently armed with with cruise missiles/AA missiles and a brand new 2x 155mm AGS guns this is the single most advance ship out there. Something impressive about the 155mm AGS is its range. Shoots a 24 in shell 60 miles. Later runs of the ship are being fitted with railguns and free-electron lasers. Ship is not cheap however and cost 3.45 Billion USD per unit.


Zumwalt getting its final paint job before ceremony.



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Quoting 577. thelmores:


I have always said that having intelligence and using intelligence is two different things.....

Was not long ago, in my lifetime, that scientists were pondering global cooling and potential start of new ice age.....


How many times does this need to be debunked? At no time was "global cooling" ever considered a possibility by the scientific community. The MEDIA latched on to a couple fringe scientists and sensationalized the whole mess. But even a cursory search of publications during that time period shows that literally only a couple of papers (introduced by the same guy) even broached the subject, and later on even he didn't support them.

Excuse me if I don't just "blindly" accept conclusions based upon flawed science!


No is expecting you to blindly accept anything. You can read the papers. You can check the analysis. In a number of cases you can even download the data. The only person preventing you from doing this is yourself.

You also claim the science is flawed. Which science? What flaws? Greenhouse theory has been around for close to 200 years, and involves multiple branches of science ranging from chemistry to thermodynamics. AGW has been around for about 114 years and is based on Greenhouse theory and the same sciences. So what part is flawed? All of it? The physics? The chemistry? The fluid dynamics? The thermodynamics?

If you're going to make claims about flawed science in a field where the scientific results arrived at by contributions from thousands of scientists for the past 100+ years, then you're going to need to make one hell of a strong case (a lot stronger than shouting "IT'S FLAWED" on an internet blog).

In an equation, if you put crap in, the answer you get out is crap!


Stating this is completely irrelevant to your premise. You haven't even identified what you think is flawed, let alone any of the equations used to construct a global climate model. Or are you saying that the data fed to the models is flawed? Again, you're going to have construct a much stronger argument, since the GCM's replicate historical and current climate quite accurately.

Lastly, even if the globe is warming, regulating and taxing American citizens WILL NOT stop it.....


Non-sequitor. Policy decisions are made by politicians, not scientists. The science stands regardless of what our idiotic representatives/government decide to do with it. For example, despite the science showing that CFCs were causing ozone depletion, it took more than a decade for anything to be done about it. Policy != Science.

Also, we've long past the point where we could stop the warming. Doing so now would require a massive global effort over several decades. That simply isn't going to happen. Most scientists are now recommending a course of action to reduce potential warming and preparation.

we would be much better suited spending our time and efforts learning how to cope with climate change...... instead of arrogantly believing that we can stop it!


No one does. Or rather no climate scientist does. You might as well ask for world peace. That's the type of cooperation it would require. And it isn't going to happen unless things get really bad (an by then it will be far too late).

Not sure why I bother..... since their are many "more intelligent and informed" folks that post here.....


There are. And that's not meant to be insulting either, unlike the last line of your comment. While those you derisively call "more intelligent and informed" post links to papers, sites, and research to back up their arguments, all you've thrown up is ideological arguments, bold statements with no proof, and empty rhetoric. That's not really convincing.
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Quoting 613. Doppler22:

I can see the moon clearly though...


Oh well. I have seen one before. nevermind :p
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614. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 609. goosegirl1:


The Northern Marianas Islands are largely uninhabited. Guam did get a glancing blow but the concern now is for Japan. Link


I wouldn't call 53K people uninhabited ..
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Quoting 607. whitewabit:


cloud bank moved in .. can see the glow but not the moon ..

I can see the moon clearly though...
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Use the Force Wabit......
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Penumbral Eclipse

a different link
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Quoting 563. BahaHurican:
OK, that was not so funny...

The hurricane kept increasing in strength, eventually reaching borderline category 5/category 6 intensity by the time it reached the Bahamas on September 9. Hurricane-force winds extended for 150 miles (240 km/h), and tropical-storm-force winds extended 350 miles (560 km), with an eye that was 30 miles across. The hurricane hit the area in the middle of the day, trapping thousands who were evacuating the islands. The hurricane's 190 mph (305 km/h) winds leveled most of the cities in the nation, including Nassau, which was leveled by the 25-foot (7.6 meter) storm surge and 185 mph (300 km/h) winds. The nation was devastated, with over 25,000 dead. Many of the people died as the winds actually crushed thousands of cars, which complicated evacuations.

See, there's nothing like inaccurate info to detract from the effectiveness of a piece.

1) No matter how bad the storm is here, nobody would be evacuating the islands once the TCI were under the storm... there's maybe 60 miles between the TCI and the Bahamas... not that anybody who lives here would evacuate anyway....

2) There are only TWO cities, Nassau and Freeport. I'd expect both of them to be leveled. Maybe communities would be better?

3)Nobody would be attempting to evacuate anywhere during a hurricane in a car in the Bahamas. And cars would more likely be washed away by storm surge [washover] than crushed by wind.

That big storm on Jupiter just reached Category 409. Don't go there.
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Quoting 599. Pallis:
Right now is the time of reckoning for the N. Marianas. From what I hear they are good people who like to stay off the grid,(I do not blame them). I doubt if anyone will set up a relief fund for them, but on the other hand if anyone knows how to survive this kind of weather it would be them. They have been at it for a couple thousand years at least. My best hopes and prayers go out to them tonight.


The Northern Marianas Islands are largely uninhabited. Guam did get a glancing blow but the concern now is for Japan. Link
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Quoting 603. Hurricane614:


Convection around the center appears to be warming slightly
Eyewall regeneration cycle should begin before long. Then da cold tops come back.
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607. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 598. Doppler22:
Looking at the moon... not seeing anything and the peak is around 7:50. -_-


cloud bank moved in .. can see the glow but not the moon ..
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Minor Lunar Eclipse in Slooh Webcast
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Quoting 602. Doppler22:

Southern Pennsylvania, which I heard was a great place to see it


I'm in Southern NY, and am getting a good view. The hunters moon itself sis gorgeous.
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The central dense overcast is not as symmetric as earlier but recent microwave imagery does not indicate an eyewall replacement cycle underway.

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Quoting 581. hydrus:
This model run sez it all about the upcoming pattern...Link


Francisco,s eye seems to contracted a bit..


Convection around the center appears to be warming slightly
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Quoting 600. Hurricane614:


where are you?

Southern Pennsylvania, which I heard was a great place to see it
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Quoting 595. Pallis:
Ever hear about the story where the Bahamas recently formed? See, Florida was twice as big as now. The Bahamas, as we know it now, was a huge island, with a lot of little islands around it. Just like Florida, the whole thing had been seabed of one form or another in ancient times, but not too long ago it went under for the most part. It had elephants and other strange creatures. The scenario played out by Uncle Fester is one of the sea taking away the surface evidence depositing it in a deeper lagoon, and coral encrustations covering it followed by slick clays. He is a wise uncle, that Fester. 206 ft. Cat island. That does not count as for where people live.
Cave divers down 500 feet in the Bahamas found some curious stuff at the bottom...Bat guano. things were alot different back then..and it was not long ago in geologic terms.
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Quoting 598. Doppler22:
Looking at the moon... not seeing anything and the peak is around 7:50. -_-


where are you?
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Quoting 573. whitewabit:


Friday October 18, 2013
TRMM Monitors Powerful Typhoon Francisco
One of the strongest typhoons of 2013 called Francisco developed in the Western Pacific Ocean on October 16, 2013. The image on the left was made from data collected as the TRMM satellite passed over on October 18, 2013 at 1002 UTC when typhoon Francisco with wind speeds of about 125kts (~144 mph) was located west-northwest of Guam. A rainfall analysis that used data from TRMM's Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR) instruments is shown on the left overlaid on an enhanced infrared image from TRMM's Visible and InfraRed Scanner (VIRS). TRMM PR found that rain was falling at a rate of over 113 mm/hr (~4.5 inches) in powerful storms within Francisco's distinct eye wall. The image on the right shows a simulated 3-D cutaway view of typhoon Francisco using data from TRMM's Precipitation Radar (PR) instrument.
Right now is the time of reckoning for the N. Marianas. From what I hear they are good people who like to stay off the grid,(I do not blame them). I doubt if anyone will set up a relief fund for them, but on the other hand if anyone knows how to survive this kind of weather it would be them. They have been at it for a couple thousand years at least. My best hopes and prayers go out to them tonight.
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Looking at the moon... not seeing anything and the peak is around 7:50. -_-
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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