Intriguing Tipping Points TV Series Begins Airing Saturday at 9pm EDT

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 PM GMT on October 18, 2013

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How does one tell the most important story of our time--the emergence of our great Climate Disruption--without boring one's audience to tears, but at the same time, not resorting to over-hyped spinning of the science? “Tipping Points”, a landmark 6-part TV series that begins airing at 9 pm EDT Saturday, October 19 on The Weather Channel, aims to do just that. "Tipping Points" follows a group of preeminent scientists as they venture off the grid to explore the perilous tipping points making our weather systems more extreme and unpredictable.

The phenomena of “tipping points” follows the concept that, at a particular moment in time, a small change can have a large, long-term consequence on a fragile climate system already in a state of flux. Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. Further, when the situation is pushed past the “tipping point,” it will potentially lead to a chain reaction, putting other ecosystems around the globe in peril. “Tipping Points” will feature several of the most critical examples, including the collapse of the Greenland ice sheet, total melting of the Himalayan icecap glaciers, die-back of the Amazon rainforest, shutdown of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation, and the rapid melt of the permafrost in Siberia. "Tipping Points" will not only show how climate changes affect local communities in exotic and distant locales like the Amazon or Siberia, but how it impacts and is relevant to people from Australia and Asia to Europe, South America to Canada and every community in between. The series explores what is happening at the most dramatic tipping points and looks to find answers to understand what can be done to stem the tide of change before we do irreparable damage, and ultimately put our own lives at risk.



The series is hosted by polar explorer and climate journalist Bernice Notenboom, the first woman to climb Mt. Everest and walk to the North and South Poles. She is joined by a number of leading international environmental scientists in each episode, such as Dr. Jason Box, Dr. Matthew England, Professor Peter Cox, and more. In each episode, Notenboom heads off to a far corner of the world to find scientists in the field undertaking vital climate research to try to understand how the climate system is changing and how long we have to make significant changes before we reach a tipping point--a point of no return when our climate system will be changed irreversibly.



The first episode at 9 pm EDT/8 pm CDT this Saturday will be "Amazon Rainforest Risks". "Tipping Points" host Bernice Notenboom will join Peter Cox, Professor of Climate System Dynamics at the University of Exeter, on an expedition across the vast Amazon Rainforest to explore the mega droughts and tree deaths occurring that threaten the forest's survival this century. The Amazon stores CO2 in its soils and biomass equivalent to about fifteen years of human-caused emissions, so a massive die-back of the forest could greatly accelerate global warming. Photosynthesis in the world's largest rainforest keeps the Earth cooler by taking about 2 billion tons of carbon dioxide out of the air each year. However, exceptional droughts in both 2005 and 2010 reversed this process. The Amazon emitted 3 billion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere in 2005, causing a net 5 billion ton increase in CO2 to the atmosphere--roughly equivalent to 19% of the total CO2 emissions to the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels that year. A 2013 NASA-led study found that an area of the Amazon rainforest twice the size of California continues to suffer from the effects of the 2005 mega drought. A 2008 paper by Professor Cox warned that their climate model predicted a rapidly increasing risk of 2005-like droughts from 1-in-20 years in the present climate to 1-in-2 years by 2025, if we continue emitting CO2 at our current "business-as-usual" pace. A 2013 study by Fu et al. found that the dry season length has grown by about seven days per decade in the southern part of the rainforest. If this trend continues in coming decades at half of that rate, the fire season that contributed to the 2005 drought would become the new norm by the late 21st century. The leader of the study, Rong Fu, explained: "The dry season over the southern Amazon is already a marginal for maintaining rainforest. At some point, if it becomes too long, the rainforest will reach a tipping point."



Typhoon Francisco headed towards Japan
Category 4 Typhoon Francisco continues to intensify over the warm waters of the Western Pacific about 200 miles west of Guam. Even though the eye of Francisco passed more than 150 miles west of Guam Friday morning, the huge storm brought sustained winds of 37 mph, gusting to 46 mph, to the island, along with 6.75" of rain. Satellite loops show that Francisco is well-organized with an impressive area of heavy thunderstorms and a prominent eye. With warm waters that extend to great depth and low wind shear, continued strengthening is likely, and Francisco is forecast to become a super typhoon with 150 mph winds by Saturday as it heads northwest towards Japan. The European model now shows that Francisco will miss Japan, but the GFS model predicts that Francisco will hit Japan on Thursday next week. There is very high uncertainty in the storm's track that far into the future, since the timing of Francisco's turn the northeast is difficult to predict.

The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days.

Jeff Masters

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 182322
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
720 PM EDT FRI OCT 18 2013

.UPDATE (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
23Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCH OF THE CONUS
UNDERNEATH THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP AND BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING. THE
TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY PIVOTING EASTWARD FROM A POSITION EXTENDING
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SOUTHERN
"LOBE" OF ENERGY ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SWING ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND HELP TO SUPPRESS
SOUTHWARD THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED OUR WEATHER THE PAST
FEW DAYS. AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE RIDGE IS STILL HOLDING STRONG OVER
THE FL PENINSULA WITH THE DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SHOWN BY
WV IMAGERY STREAMING OVER THE CENTRAL/NE GULF COAST. SOME OF THIS
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH WITH TIME AND ALLOW FOR BETTER
CHANCES FOR A FEW SCT SHOWERS TO ENTER THE FORECAST DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...A VERY WEAK GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA THIS EVENING TO THE SOUTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN GA. THE WEAK GRADIENT AND
IMPRESSIVE TERRESTRIAL HEATING FOR MID/LATE OCTOBER ALLOWED FOR WELL
DEFINED SEA-BREEZES ALONG BOTH THE WEST AND EAST COASTS OF THE
STATE. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS JUST ENOUGH ALONG OUR WEST COAST
SEA-BREEZE TO FORCE A FEW VERY ISOLATED AND SHALLOW SHOWERS EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE WAS REALLY QUITE HOSTILE TO CONVECTION
TODAY WITH A VERY WELL DEFINED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 800MB ON
THE MORNING KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE. THIS SHOWS JUST HOW STRONG THE
LOW LEVEL FOCUS CAN GET ALONG OUR SEA-BREEZE TO OVERCOME THE
NEGATIVE FACTORS. IN FACT...THE HOSTILITY OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO
RISING MOTION AND THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THE FIRST ISOLATED SHOWER
LEAD TO DISCUSSION OF WHETHER OR NOT IT WAS A FIRE BEING DETECTED BY
THE RADAR. HOWEVER... ANALYSIS OF THE VARIOUS DUAL-POL RADAR
PRODUCTS CONFIRMED THAT INDEED THE RADAR WAS SAMPLING METEOROLOGICAL
HYDROMETEORS...AKA...RAINDROPS. GO FIGURE...WHEN FLORIDA WANTS TO
RAIN...IT RAINS.


REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...SUN HAS SET AND THINGS ARE COOLING
OFF. SEA-BREEZE WILL FOLLOW AND DIMINISH IN NEXT HOUR OR 2 ALLOWING
ANY LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR OUR LAND AREAS.
THE SLOW LOSS OF THE RIDGE STRENGTH BY LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH A
WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS OFF THE COAST OF
SARASOTA/CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL SEE A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE AT A FEW MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND ALONG WITH OVERALL LESS SUPPRESSION AND
ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE...WE SHOULD HAVE SOME
ACTIVITY ON THE RADAR FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO BE ENOUGH TO DO ANYTHING BUT BRIEFLY HALT ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES. A WET AFTERNOON/EVENING IS CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTED. MOST
OF YOUR SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 80S
TO LOWER 90S. ENJOY!



The Ruskin office threw in some humor tonight, I got a kick out of this! Its also nice to see odd weather phenomenon bothers them like it does me, lol.
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697. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM JST October 19 2013
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 19.0N 152.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest slowly.

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 10.0N 164.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.
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I see Patrap is finally behaving now.
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Screw GW my alumni (UCF) is beating #8 ranked Louisville 31 to 28 with 6 minutes left. GO KNIGHTs!
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Quoting 630. MisterPerfect:
New Study: ’2013 ranks as one of the least extreme U.S. weather years ever’– Many bad weather events at ‘historically low levels’
By: Marc Morano - Climate DepotOctober 18, 2013 12:25 PM

'Whether you’re talking about tornadoes, wildfires, extreme heat or hurricanes, the good news is that weather-related disasters in the US are all way down this year compared to recent years and, in some cases, down to historically low levels.'

Tornadoes: 'lowest total in several decades'

Number of wildfires: 'On pace to be the lowest it has been in the past ten years'

Extreme Heat: The number of 100 degree days may 'turn out to be the lowest in about 100 years of records'

Hurricanes: 'We are currently in the longest period (8 years) since the Civil War Era without a major hurricane strike in the US (i.e., category 3, 4 or 5)' ( last major hurricane to strike the US was Hurricane Wilma in 2005)

www.climatedepot.com/2013/10/18/new-study-2013-ra nks-as-one-of-the-least-extreme-us-weather-years-e ver-many-bad-weather-events-at-historically-low-le vels
In addition to his many other well demonstrated knowledge deficiencies, Morono also shows us here that he fails to grasp the meaning of the term 'extreme'...
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South Pacific AOI.
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only hurricane so far this year.
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Quoting 634. stormpetrol:


Western Caribbean shear wise couldn't be any more conducive for tropical development, something needs to release the heat build up around here, it's stifling . I think Mother Nature will take care of it before long.


i agree its only a matter of time
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Ge, I thought you said it was because it was, er, down the coast and figure out why it is all bendy

I'm gonna go with the the published Science data on the Maldives, but thanks anyway.



Main article: Geography of the Maldives



See also: Atolls of the Maldives and List of islands of the Maldives



Malhosmadulhu Atoll seen from space. "Fasdutere" and Southern Maalhosmadulhu Atoll can be seen in this picture.


Maldives consists of 1,192 coral islands grouped in a double chain of 26 atolls, along the north-south direction, spread over roughly 90,000 square kilometres (35,000 sq mi), making this one of the world's most dispersed countries. It lies between latitudes 1°S and 8°N, and longitudes 72° and 74°E. The atolls are composed of live coral reefs and sand bars, situated atop a submarine ridge 960 kilometres (600 mi) long that rises abruptly from the depths of the Indian Ocean and runs north to south.

Only near the southern end of this natural coral barricade do two open passages permit safe ship navigation from one side of the Indian Ocean to the other through the territorial waters of Maldives. For administrative purposes the Maldivian government organised these atolls into twenty one administrative divisions. The largest island of Maldives is Gan, which belongs to Laamu Atoll or Hahdhummathi Maldives.

In Addu Atoll the westernmost islands are connected by roads over the reef (collectively called Link Road) and the total length of the road is 14 km (9 mi).

Maldives is the lowest country in the world, with a maximum natural ground level of only 2.4 metres (7 ft 10 in), with the average being only 1.5 metres (4 ft 11 in) above sea level, although in areas where construction exists, this has been increased to several metres.

However, more than 80 per cent of the country's land is composed of coral islands that rise less than one metre above sea level.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129814
Quoting 688. TropicalAnalystwx13:
8 years ago now:

WILMA HAS DEVELOPED THE DREADED PINHOLE EYE. REPORTS FROM THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING WILMA BETWEEN 19Z AND
23Z INDICATED A 7-8 N MI WIDE EYE...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
DROPPING FROM 970 MB TO 954 MB IN 3 HR 14 MIN. THE MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT AT 850 MB WERE 101 KT.
SINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED ORGANIZATION...
WITH A RING OF COLD TOPS OF -80C TO -87C SURROUNDING THE EYE.
What a storm that was.

Also, check out this site. Allows you to browse through Aqua/Terra MODIS imagery,

Link
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8 years ago now:

WILMA HAS DEVELOPED THE DREADED PINHOLE EYE. REPORTS FROM THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING WILMA BETWEEN 19Z AND
23Z INDICATED A 7-8 N MI WIDE EYE...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
DROPPING FROM 970 MB TO 954 MB IN 3 HR 14 MIN. THE MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT AT 850 MB WERE 101 KT.
SINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED ORGANIZATION...
WITH A RING OF COLD TOPS OF -80C TO -87C SURROUNDING THE EYE.
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Quoting 683. Pallis:
Not our business. I am well aware that the Maldives are sinking and that is a natural process. This is proven by the fact that explorers noticed the cliffs getting shorter just like Wales. Scotland is shooting out of the water at an exponential rate. No one here seems to realize that coastlines go up and down, sometimes on a regular basis. Scotland is rising because the huge ice sheet that pushed it down has melted a long time ago. Isostatic rebound would be the term.
"Not our business"?

Really?

Well, even if one believes that--I don't--there's no denying it's our fault in part--and that makes it our responsibility. You know, leader of the world, the shining city on the hill, the chosen ones, and all that...
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Note this is from yesterday. Still waiting for a Terra/Aqua pass over Francisco.
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Quoting 682. washingtonian115:
That's one of the craziest maps of the GFS I've seen posted.
My professor showed me this website.

Here is the Atlantic and part of EPAC.

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Quoting 667. Patrap:
If one would like a great story of climate change, step up and do a Thesis on the Maldives as they are the ones being impacted now.

They need to move residents now, and have.

Its a social and dynamic situation that layer the rising water, tenfold.

It would do them and the World a great service.

Think about it.


After all, we have the gift to think, create, Build, but also destroy and make War like a fine Art.

The World needs it young minds as never before.

Time is not on yer side.

We need to break the cycle, or the cycle will break us..without hesitation, or thought, let alone care.

Published on Apr 9, 2012
DemocracyNow.org - In part two of our interview with ousted president of the Maldives, Mohamed Nasheed, he describes the battle for democracy in his country after he was forced out at gunpoint in February. To his surprise, the United States instantly recognized the man who took his place, former dictator Maumoon Abdul Gayoom. Nasheed was a longtime pro-democracy activist who was jailed for six years under Gayoom's rule. The coup became news across the globe in part because Nasheed has become an internationally recognized leader in the effort to address the root causes of climate change. The Maldives rise just 1.3 meters above sea level, making his nation and other island states extremely vulnerable from rising sea waters due to global warming. We also speak with Jon Shenk, director of a new documentary about Nasheed's life, "The Island President," which is now playing in theaters.

To watch the complete independent, weekday news hour, read the transcript and download the podcast, please visit http://www.democracynow.org


Not our business. I am well aware that the Maldives are sinking and that is a natural process. This is proven by the fact that explorers noticed the cliffs getting shorter just like Wales. Scotland is shooting out of the water at an exponential rate. No one here seems to realize that coastlines go up and down, sometimes on a regular basis. Scotland is rising because the huge ice sheet that pushed it down has melted a long time ago. Isostatic rebound would be the term.
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Quoting 681. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Francisco looks like it is on track to make landfall over Japan and another system looks to form right behind it per the GFS.

That's one of the craziest maps of the GFS I've seen posted.
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Francisco looks like it is on track to make landfall over Japan and another system looks to form right behind it per the GFS.

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Certainly deserves classification.

SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0210 UTC SAT OCT 19 2013

A. Tropical disturbance.

B. 18/2332Z.

C. 11.8S.

D. 166.0E.

E. Mtsat.

F. T2.0/2.0/d1.0/12 hrs.

G. Vis/ir.

H. Remarks: Cdo pattern yields a data t-number of 3.5 while a .4 wrap would yield a data t-number of 2.5. Final T-number held to 2.0 based on Dvorak constraints. This is a very small system and may not be following the Dvorak constraints for speed of development. There is a greater than normal amount of uncertainty regarding the intensity of this system.

I. Addl positions 18/1132Z 12.3S 166.2E t1.0/1.0.

$$
DONALDSON
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Quoting 665. Xulonn:
Science advances, and sea level rise and its projected impact on Florida are being studied intensely. I get my information from reports on current research, and not from history books about the 1980s. Subsidence,rise, and erosion are well understood, and included in the science.

I learned to do my research in libraries while I attended elementary school in Chicago in the 1950's, carried those skills into high school and college, and also used them as a research technician many years ago. And then I transferred those acquired skills vigorously and rigorously to the internet as it became more and more saturated with information - both good and bad.

I'm not going to rebut you detail by detail, but the factors you mention are definitely included in the study of sea level "rise." Scientists may be smarter than you think - they don't miss much, and if they do, their colleagues will trash them in the peer review process.

Florida Atlantic University%u2019s Center for Environmental Studies last year held a conference on the subject. Here's part of the summary on that event:

Session One: Sea Level Rise and Florida: %u201CA Complex and Unique Relationship%u201D

The highlights of the session included current sea level rise rates, potential acceleration, and impacts that are already being felt.

- Sea level is rising and it is expected to accelerate. During much of the last century the global rate of rise is about 1.8mm per year. Since 1990 it has been 3.1 mm per year.

- The state has a high percentage of the nations risk due to these reasons:

- In the US, 4.9 million people live below an elevation of 4 feet, 2.4 million of which are in Florida;

- There are 107 towns and cities in Florida in which over half of the residents live below 4 feet in elevation (Strauss, 2012).

- The limestone geology causes a rapid interaction between rising sea water along the coast, potentially impacting municipal well fields.

Florida has current and future problems. Current impacts in Southeast Florida include: reduction in capacity of flood control structures (some of which are already experiencing impacts during high tide), salt water intrusion towards fresh water well fields (South Florida's primary source of drinking water), and the landward migration of fresh water wetlands that may experience peat collapse along the coast.

Edit: Use Google to search for sea level rise and Miami or Florida, and you will find a wealth of information on the subject.
You really did not rebut me at all. Eloquent presentation though. You were good in English, and possibly Literature. My learning was not just by book. I dig. That is the difference. I hope that you can equate that strata is a factor in sea level rise, otherwise it is a moot point. I am also suggesting you find the same strata up and down the coast and figure out why it is all bendy. I could tell you, but I would ruin your excitement of discovery. Two sciences coming together on one blog ... aahhAAahuaH!
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Francisco Long Floater - RGB Color Imagery Loop

Controls are active

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129814


Typhoon 26W FRANSISCO

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 OCT 2013 Time : 010000 UTC
Lat : 16:27:41 N Lon : 140:10:49 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 929.2mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.2 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +13.8C Cloud Region Temp : -72.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 128km
- Environmental MSLP : 1004mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 20.1 degrees


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129814
Issue appears to be dry air.

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675. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


95W INVEST CMC model.. (Lekima?!)
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Quoting 668. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It's a bird, it's a plane, it's a UFO, it's a swarm of bees, no it's an explosion from a mortar that was being tested for an upcoming fireworks display. :P



Link




It was a King Kong Smoke Ring
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Quoting 623. ncstorm:
long range..but exciting to see..

18z GFS snow depth map







Has Missouri ever had snow like that in October? I'm skeptical but hope it comes true. Typhoons in the western Pacific sometimes trigger cold outbreaks here a week or so after moving into the temperate zone. Francisco's ghost?
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Quoting 631. whitewabit:


And in the short term

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Im looking thru, a Hole in the Sky..


I'm looking through a hole in the sky
I'm seeing nowhere through the eyes of a lie
I'm getting closer to the end of the line
I'm living easy where the sun doesn't shine

I'm living in a room without any view
I'm living free because the rent's never due
The synonyms of all the things that I've said
Are just the riddles that are built in my head

Hole in the sky, gateway to Heaven Window in time, through it I fly

I'm seeing the stars that disappear in the sun
The shooting's easy if you've got the right gun
And even though I'm sitting waiting for miles I don't believe there's any future in cars

Hole in the sky, gateway to Heaven
Window in time, through it I fly

I've watched the dogs of war enjoying their feast
I've seen the western world go down in the east
The food of love became the greed of our time
But now we're living on the profits of crime



Quoting 668. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It's a bird, it's a plane, it's a UFO, it's a swarm of bees, no it's an explosion from a mortar that was being tested for an upcoming fireworks display. :P



Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129814
Quoting 661. Jedkins01:


It looks like a floating space ship! Amazing.


While I'm glad we have the technology, would be nice if the other countries, whose shipping lanes we protect, would kick in a little towards that 3.45B price tag. They get the benefit, we run the deficit.
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It's a bird, it's a plane, it's a UFO, it's a swarm of bees, no it's an explosion from a mortar that was being tested for an upcoming fireworks display. :P



Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If one would like a great story of climate change, step up and do a Thesis on the Maldives as they are the ones being impacted now.

They need to move residents now, and have.

Its a social and dynamic situation that layer the rising water, tenfold.

It would do them and the World a great service.

Think about it.


After all, we have the gift to think, create, Build, but also destroy and make War like a fine Art.

The World needs it young minds as never before.

Time is not on yer side.

We need to break the cycle, or the cycle will break us..without hesitation, or thought, let alone care.

Published on Apr 9, 2012
DemocracyNow.org - In part two of our interview with ousted president of the Maldives, Mohamed Nasheed, he describes the battle for democracy in his country after he was forced out at gunpoint in February. To his surprise, the United States instantly recognized the man who took his place, former dictator Maumoon Abdul Gayoom. Nasheed was a longtime pro-democracy activist who was jailed for six years under Gayoom's rule. The coup became news across the globe in part because Nasheed has become an internationally recognized leader in the effort to address the root causes of climate change. The Maldives rise just 1.3 meters above sea level, making his nation and other island states extremely vulnerable from rising sea waters due to global warming. We also speak with Jon Shenk, director of a new documentary about Nasheed's life, "The Island President," which is now playing in theaters.

To watch the complete independent, weekday news hour, read the transcript and download the podcast, please visit http://www.democracynow.org


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129814
Beautiful satellite presentation.
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Quoting 642. Pallis:
Florida is being dragged at 1 inch per annum from Africa. The part that lifts, and erodes just as quickly, is Venice, Sanibel, parts of Port Charlotte, Pine Island, St. Petersburg, Naples to a lesser degree, and ect. The very well known 500 year deluge of Miami(now)is because, as the new lifts, the back end falls. Right now, we as a state are rising in the middle in some parts, but not others. I would contact your trusted real estate agent. The sea has risen by a very slight degree, but you blaming rising seas sinking Miami is very unscientific. If you Google Earth real close you can see the huge drop right off shore. If you peruse the state and local news papers in the last 100 years you will find things that were on land relatively recently in the bay of Biscayne. The land has sunk, and you can easily go north to Jacksonville, St Augustine, Indian River, or Jupiter to corroborate your own investigation. They taught us this stuff in the 80's. What in Jack Snot are they teaching you kids now'a'days?
Science advances, and sea level rise and its projected impact on Florida are being studied intensely. I get my information from reports on current research, and not from history books about the 1980s. Subsidence,rise, and erosion are well understood, and included in the science.

I learned to do my research in libraries while I attended elementary school in Chicago in the 1950's, carried those skills into high school and college, and also used them as a research technician many years ago. And then I transferred those acquired skills vigorously and rigorously to the internet as it became more and more saturated with information - both good and bad.

I'm not going to rebut you detail by detail, but the factors you mention are definitely included in the study of sea level "rise." Scientists may be smarter than you think - they don't miss much, and if they do, their colleagues will trash them in the peer review process.

Florida Atlantic University%u2019s Center for Environmental Studies last year held a conference on the subject. Here's part of the summary on that event:

Session One: Sea Level Rise and Florida: %u201CA Complex and Unique Relationship%u201D

The highlights of the session included current sea level rise rates, potential acceleration, and impacts that are already being felt.

- Sea level is rising and it is expected to accelerate. During much of the last century the global rate of rise is about 1.8mm per year. Since 1990 it has been 3.1 mm per year.

- The state has a high percentage of the nations risk due to these reasons:

- In the US, 4.9 million people live below an elevation of 4 feet, 2.4 million of which are in Florida;

- There are 107 towns and cities in Florida in which over half of the residents live below 4 feet in elevation (Strauss, 2012).

- The limestone geology causes a rapid interaction between rising sea water along the coast, potentially impacting municipal well fields.

Florida has current and future problems. Current impacts in Southeast Florida include: reduction in capacity of flood control structures (some of which are already experiencing impacts during high tide), salt water intrusion towards fresh water well fields (South Florida's primary source of drinking water), and the landward migration of fresh water wetlands that may experience peat collapse along the coast.

Edit: Use Google to search for sea level rise and Miami or Florida, and you will find a wealth of information on the subject.
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Check it out Caleb, new Oct 9th Hubble Ison Image

Its still very intact, with a good round Coma.



Potentially Dazzling Comet ISON Still Intact, Hubble Photo Suggests
By Mike Wall, Senior Writer | October 17, 2013 04:18pm ET


This is very good news as she is inside of Mars orbit, on schedule, on parabola..hopefully, we will get a Hale Bopp or greater sight for Xmas Day.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129814
Quoting 661. Jedkins01:


It looks like a floating space ship! Amazing.

Railguns and free-electron lazers.... legit
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Quoting 659. Patrap:
Have you heard?about the bird
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Quoting 617. hurricanehunter27:
A bit random but I thought I would mention it. The USS Zumwalt is set to be commissioned tomorrow. This is the latest destroyer in the US arsenal and is set to replace Arleigh Burke class destroyers.



Currently armed with with cruise missiles/AA missiles and a brand new 2x 155mm AGS guns this is the single most advance ship out there. Something impressive about the 155mm AGS is its range. Shoots a 24 in shell 60 miles. Later runs of the ship are being fitted with railguns and free-electron lasers. Ship is not cheap however and cost 3.45 Billion USD per unit.


Zumwalt getting its final paint job before ceremony.





It looks like a floating space ship! Amazing.
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Good evening everyone lots of things happening in space tonight and visible for us here on Earth.

1) COMET ISON NOW VISIBLE FROM SOME BACKYARDS:

This was taken from the Hubble Space Telescope on April 10, 2013:



Link



2) And a spectacular view of the Hunter's Moon and a lunar eclipse:



Link
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Have you heard?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129814
Quoting 656. Pallis:
(4) The eye wall passes near a stationary geomagnetic anomaly and gets pulled while the rest of the storm remains on track, thus re-diverting itself. Putting itself on track in layman's terms. Sorry if I made hurricane prediction more complicated than it already is. They all can't be winners kid.
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Quoting 655. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Pinwheel!

Exactly!
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Quoting 652. Patrap:
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE

METEOROLOGIST JEFF HABY


A feature of significant hurricanes is the eyewall replacement cycle. Basically what occurs is that a new eye begins to develop around the old eye. The new eye gradually decreases in diameter and replaces the old eye. With the profound increase in the number of extreme hurricanes the past few years there has been an opportunity to witness several eyewall replacement cycles.

When an eyewall replacement cycle occurs the intensity of the hurricane usually decreases. For example, a CAT 5 hurricane could weaken to a CAT 4 hurricane. The intensity weakens due to the gradual erosion of the inner eyewall. As the outer eyewall contracts and gains organization then the storm will often increase in intensity. Because of eyewall replacement cycles, a hurricane will typically not remain a CAT 5 for a long period of time.

Although an eyewall replacement cycle tends to reduce the category of a hurricane it also spread the hurricane force winds out over a larger area. This can cause a larger region to experience the extreme damage in a hurricane.

The forecast models have extreme difficulty with predicting an eyewall replacement cycle. Replacement cycles will usually happen with intense hurricanes but it is not known exactly when.

An important question is, "What causes these eyewall replacement cycles?" That is still being researched. Here are some possible explanations:

1. When the eye diameter gets too small then the eyewall convection is not able to stay organized. New convection and a new eyewall develop outside the old one where there is more space and energy.

2. Once the winds become too strong, turbulent breakdown occurs. This turbulence breaks apart portions of the eyewall which lead to its weakening. A new eyewall develops where the wind field remains less turbulent and more organized outside the old eyewall.

3. The band of convection outside the inner eyewall begins to rob the inner eyewall of moisture and energy. The inner eyewall weakens and the outer eyewall, which has greater moisture and energy, replaces it.

Here is an example of an eyewall replacement cycle. This radar image is of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 that struck the coast of Southeast Louisiana and Mississippi. Notice the circular blue color in the center. That is the eye of Katrina. Notice to the southeast of the eye is a clear area. Notice there is a second eye around the inner eye and the clear area. The inner eye is on the north end of the outer eye. That second outer eye was in the process of replacing the inner eye when Katrina made landfall.

(4) The eye wall passes near a stationary geomagnetic anomaly and gets pulled while the rest of the storm remains on track, thus re-diverting itself. Putting itself on track in layman's terms. Sorry if I made hurricane prediction more complicated than it already is.
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Pinwheel!

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WP262013 - Typhoon (>=96 kt) FRANCISCO

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery Loop


click image for Loop

Click Loop to ZOOM


re-loaded


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129814
Quoting 636. Xulonn:
Thanks for the polite response, Frank. The IPCC is extraordinarily conservative and cautious in their projections of projected sea level rise in the 21st century. I suspect that one or more tipping points Dr. Masters discussed may kick in and render the current "official" projections moot - and I'm not alone in that line of thinking.



Edit: Here's another LINK to the discussion this subject. It seems that there is a lot of dissent on the subject - searching the internet brings up lots of discussions of this - and they are nearly all contending that sea levels are likely to rise much more rapidly than currently predicted by the very conservative models.


Rahmstorf(2010) gives a range of projections which are much greater than both Ar4 and AR5:



Estimates for twenty-first century sea level rise from semi-empirical models2, 8, 16, 17, 18 as compared to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)1. For exact definitions of the time periods and emissions scenarios considered, see the original references.

Source: A new view on sea level rise Stefan Rahmstorf







Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3659
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE

METEOROLOGIST JEFF HABY


A feature of significant hurricanes is the eyewall replacement cycle. Basically what occurs is that a new eye begins to develop around the old eye. The new eye gradually decreases in diameter and replaces the old eye. With the profound increase in the number of extreme hurricanes the past few years there has been an opportunity to witness several eyewall replacement cycles.

When an eyewall replacement cycle occurs the intensity of the hurricane usually decreases. For example, a CAT 5 hurricane could weaken to a CAT 4 hurricane. The intensity weakens due to the gradual erosion of the inner eyewall. As the outer eyewall contracts and gains organization then the storm will often increase in intensity. Because of eyewall replacement cycles, a hurricane will typically not remain a CAT 5 for a long period of time.

Although an eyewall replacement cycle tends to reduce the category of a hurricane it also spread the hurricane force winds out over a larger area. This can cause a larger region to experience the extreme damage in a hurricane.

The forecast models have extreme difficulty with predicting an eyewall replacement cycle. Replacement cycles will usually happen with intense hurricanes but it is not known exactly when.

An important question is, "What causes these eyewall replacement cycles?" That is still being researched. Here are some possible explanations:

1. When the eye diameter gets too small then the eyewall convection is not able to stay organized. New convection and a new eyewall develop outside the old one where there is more space and energy.

2. Once the winds become too strong, turbulent breakdown occurs. This turbulence breaks apart portions of the eyewall which lead to its weakening. A new eyewall develops where the wind field remains less turbulent and more organized outside the old eyewall.

3. The band of convection outside the inner eyewall begins to rob the inner eyewall of moisture and energy. The inner eyewall weakens and the outer eyewall, which has greater moisture and energy, replaces it.

Here is an example of an eyewall replacement cycle. This radar image is of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 that struck the coast of Southeast Louisiana and Mississippi. Notice the circular blue color in the center. That is the eye of Katrina. Notice to the southeast of the eye is a clear area. Notice there is a second eye around the inner eye and the clear area. The inner eye is on the north end of the outer eye. That second outer eye was in the process of replacing the inner eye when Katrina made landfall.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129814
We can blog if want to'

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129814
Quoting 648. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Eyewall replacement cycles are natural within intense tropical cyclones, and almost all systems with winds above 115 mph go through at least one in their lifespan. There are have been many hypotheses on what causes EWRCs, but none have been proven and trying to identify what causes the process has largely been ceased. In an EWRC, outer rainbands contract to form a larger eyewall with a moat of subsidence between the new and old eyewalls. Because the inner eyewall can no longer draw in moister (it's being robbed by the outer eyewall), it dissipates. Once this happens, the storm loses organization; the pressure rises and the maximum winds come down. However, the storm expands greatly, making it much more of a threat to land (see also: Irene '11, Ike '08, Igor '10). After a while, the outer eyewall contracts to the size of a normal eyewall (10-15 nautical miles) and the system is able to regain intensity.


Thanks for that!
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TWAVE
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Quoting 639. Hurricane614:
Can somebody explain to me exactly what eyewall replacement cycle is. I know what it is, but what does it mean? Strengthening? Weakening? Speed?

Eyewall replacement cycles are natural within intense tropical cyclones, and almost all systems with winds above 115 mph go through at least one in their lifespan. There are have been many hypotheses on what causes EWRCs, but none have been proven and trying to identify what causes the process has largely been ceased. In an EWRC, outer rainbands contract to form a larger eyewall with a moat of subsidence between the new and old eyewalls. Because the inner eyewall can no longer draw in moisture (it's being robbed by the outer eyewall), it dissipates. Once this happens, the storm loses organization; the pressure rises and the maximum winds come down. However, the storm expands greatly, making it much more of a threat to land (see also: Irene '11, Ike '08, Igor '10). After a while, the outer eyewall contracts to the size of a normal eyewall (10-15 nautical miles) and the system is able to regain intensity.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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