Intriguing Tipping Points TV Series Begins Airing Saturday at 9pm EDT

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 PM GMT on October 18, 2013

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How does one tell the most important story of our time--the emergence of our great Climate Disruption--without boring one's audience to tears, but at the same time, not resorting to over-hyped spinning of the science? “Tipping Points”, a landmark 6-part TV series that begins airing at 9 pm EDT Saturday, October 19 on The Weather Channel, aims to do just that. "Tipping Points" follows a group of preeminent scientists as they venture off the grid to explore the perilous tipping points making our weather systems more extreme and unpredictable.

The phenomena of “tipping points” follows the concept that, at a particular moment in time, a small change can have a large, long-term consequence on a fragile climate system already in a state of flux. Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. Further, when the situation is pushed past the “tipping point,” it will potentially lead to a chain reaction, putting other ecosystems around the globe in peril. “Tipping Points” will feature several of the most critical examples, including the collapse of the Greenland ice sheet, total melting of the Himalayan icecap glaciers, die-back of the Amazon rainforest, shutdown of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation, and the rapid melt of the permafrost in Siberia. "Tipping Points" will not only show how climate changes affect local communities in exotic and distant locales like the Amazon or Siberia, but how it impacts and is relevant to people from Australia and Asia to Europe, South America to Canada and every community in between. The series explores what is happening at the most dramatic tipping points and looks to find answers to understand what can be done to stem the tide of change before we do irreparable damage, and ultimately put our own lives at risk.



The series is hosted by polar explorer and climate journalist Bernice Notenboom, the first woman to climb Mt. Everest and walk to the North and South Poles. She is joined by a number of leading international environmental scientists in each episode, such as Dr. Jason Box, Dr. Matthew England, Professor Peter Cox, and more. In each episode, Notenboom heads off to a far corner of the world to find scientists in the field undertaking vital climate research to try to understand how the climate system is changing and how long we have to make significant changes before we reach a tipping point--a point of no return when our climate system will be changed irreversibly.



The first episode at 9 pm EDT/8 pm CDT this Saturday will be "Amazon Rainforest Risks". "Tipping Points" host Bernice Notenboom will join Peter Cox, Professor of Climate System Dynamics at the University of Exeter, on an expedition across the vast Amazon Rainforest to explore the mega droughts and tree deaths occurring that threaten the forest's survival this century. The Amazon stores CO2 in its soils and biomass equivalent to about fifteen years of human-caused emissions, so a massive die-back of the forest could greatly accelerate global warming. Photosynthesis in the world's largest rainforest keeps the Earth cooler by taking about 2 billion tons of carbon dioxide out of the air each year. However, exceptional droughts in both 2005 and 2010 reversed this process. The Amazon emitted 3 billion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere in 2005, causing a net 5 billion ton increase in CO2 to the atmosphere--roughly equivalent to 19% of the total CO2 emissions to the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels that year. A 2013 NASA-led study found that an area of the Amazon rainforest twice the size of California continues to suffer from the effects of the 2005 mega drought. A 2008 paper by Professor Cox warned that their climate model predicted a rapidly increasing risk of 2005-like droughts from 1-in-20 years in the present climate to 1-in-2 years by 2025, if we continue emitting CO2 at our current "business-as-usual" pace. A 2013 study by Fu et al. found that the dry season length has grown by about seven days per decade in the southern part of the rainforest. If this trend continues in coming decades at half of that rate, the fire season that contributed to the 2005 drought would become the new norm by the late 21st century. The leader of the study, Rong Fu, explained: "The dry season over the southern Amazon is already a marginal for maintaining rainforest. At some point, if it becomes too long, the rainforest will reach a tipping point."



Typhoon Francisco headed towards Japan
Category 4 Typhoon Francisco continues to intensify over the warm waters of the Western Pacific about 200 miles west of Guam. Even though the eye of Francisco passed more than 150 miles west of Guam Friday morning, the huge storm brought sustained winds of 37 mph, gusting to 46 mph, to the island, along with 6.75" of rain. Satellite loops show that Francisco is well-organized with an impressive area of heavy thunderstorms and a prominent eye. With warm waters that extend to great depth and low wind shear, continued strengthening is likely, and Francisco is forecast to become a super typhoon with 150 mph winds by Saturday as it heads northwest towards Japan. The European model now shows that Francisco will miss Japan, but the GFS model predicts that Francisco will hit Japan on Thursday next week. There is very high uncertainty in the storm's track that far into the future, since the timing of Francisco's turn the northeast is difficult to predict.

The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days.

Jeff Masters

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Jinx alert! Will the EPAC finally see a major hurricane?

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Quoting 745. TropicalAnalystwx13:

....hence the entire reason I said I should've just ignored it in the first place.


What was there to ignore. You jumped to conclusions saying I was insulting them when that wasn't even the case. You thought wrong Cody as well as Jedkins
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 2954
Quoting 745. TropicalAnalystwx13:

....hence the entire reason I said I should've just ignored it in the first place.


...You shouldn't ignore it in cases where you're the one who started the discussion. That's the point I'm trying to make.

Even entertaining that philosophy within that context isn't particularly savory.
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Quoting 742. KoritheMan:
If you say something that you know is going to provoke an opposite response, it's not very classy to run away with your tail between your legs.

Although to your credit, there was a follow up post.

....hence the entire reason I said I should've just ignored it in the first place.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
744. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting 743. BaltimoreBrian:


It's nearer 21.0S actually


ya I realized it was a little further south
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Quoting 740. HadesGodWyvern:


Réunion is near 15.0S 55.0E


It's nearer 21.0S actually
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Quoting 733. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm not sure why those two are being compared because that's apples and oranges...?

It doesn't really matter either way. Probably just should've ignored the comment.

...

Dry air is really wrapping around Francisco now:

If you say something that you know is going to provoke an opposite response, it's not very classy to run away with your tail between your legs.

Although to your credit, there was a follow up post.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
A bit random but I thought I would mention it. The USS Zumwalt is set to be commissioned tomorrow. This is the latest destroyer in the US arsenal and is set to replace Arleigh Burke class destroyers.



Currently armed with with cruise missiles/AA missiles and a brand new 2x 155mm AGS guns this is the single most advance ship out there. Something impressive about the 155mm AGS is its range. Shoots a 24 in shell 60 miles. Later runs of the ship are being fitted with railguns and free-electron lasers. Ship is not cheap however and cost 3.45 Billion USD per unit.


Zumwalt getting its final paint job before ceremony.




Whoever wrote this is very confused. This is going to be a "naming" ceremony, not a launching. The vessel is still on the ways and only 60% complete. Almost none of the electronics or weapons system are installed. The 155mm long range guns, for example, have not even finished testing, and many of the critical electronic systems are still being tested (and failing) on a decommissioned Spruance Class destroyer hull. The ship is about a year behind schedule and, with some luck, will actually be commissioned for sea trials late in 2015. There's a reason you only see drawings of this ship except for the pieces which are resting on (but not connected to) the hull on the building ways. This is the most expensive non-nuclear naval vessel ever constructed ($3.5 billion, probably $4 billion with overruns) and also the largest "destroyer" ever built, at 600 feet long and over 14,500 tons. This is about the size of an average WWII cruiser and, because of its value to the Navy, will require its own task force to escort it and protect it from submarine and air attack. This the traditional escort mission of a destroyer. But the DDG-1000 class will actually act as cruisers. Because of the astronomical cost, only 3 of this class will ordered, essentially as showpieces, because having three vessels scattered throughout the world will never be able to give the concentrated firepower needed for shore bombardment.

Now you know where some of NOAA's potential money goes every year. :-)
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740. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting 734. Doppler22:

Maybe its because I am tired and when i'm tired I have horrible vision, but I can barely make out the country outlines.


Reunion is near 20.0S 55.0E

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Quoting 736. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I didn't make a big deal out of anything. I simply stated that your post calling meteorologists at the NWS newbees that need to be taught how to make a medium-range forecast was rude. Jedkins noted the same thing so it's not me overreacting.

But I'm moving on.


Newbees as in new employees. Since when does newbees get taken as an insult.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 2954
Quoting 733. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm not sure why those two are being compared because that's apples and oranges...?

It doesn't really matter either way. Probably just should've ignored the comment.

...

Dry air is really wrapping around Francisco now:



I'm just trying to poke a hole in your logic, like usual. Just because you worked hard for the position doesn't mean you're good at it, and yeah it's rude to criticize NWS Melbourne and say they can't make a medium range forecast. BUT I know you like to flaunt your good morals ;)
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Quoting 735. StormTrackerScott:


Well then why did you make a big deal out of nothing?

Anyway GFS now stalls front of S FL with little if any cool down for C & S FL.

I didn't make a big deal out of anything. I simply stated that your post calling meteorologists at the NWS newbees that needed to be taught how to make a medium-range forecast was rude. Jedkins noted that it wasn't a respectful thing to say either so it's not just me.

But I'm moving on.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
Quoting 733. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm not sure why those two are being compared because that's apples and oranges...?

It doesn't really matter either way. Probably just should've ignored the comment.

...

Dry air is really wrapping around Francisco now:



Well then why did you make a big deal out of nothing?

Anyway GFS now stalls front of S FL with little if any cool down for C & S FL.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 2954
Quoting 701. HadesGodWyvern:


couple of possible cyclones in the coming days..

"Lekima"
"01R" possible near Réunion Island

Maybe its because I am tired and when i'm tired I have horrible vision, but I can barely make out the country outlines.
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Quoting 724. wxgeek723:


If you spend years going to school to be an engineer, and the bridge that you design fails, is it "rude" for people to outwardly criticize you? I have the utmost respect for NWS workers but the ones here in NJ especially are very guilty of letting the models do the talking and then have the forecast bust miserably. And I'm not just talking once or twice.

I'm not sure why those two are being compared because that's apples and oranges...?

It doesn't really matter either way. Probably just should've ignored the comment.

...

Dry air is really wrapping around Francisco now:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
Quoting 731. Patrap:
Pictured: The colossal cap being lowered over exploded nuclear reactor to protect the world from Chernobyl's crumbling tomb

By LARISA BROWN
PUBLISHED: 19:56 EST, 27 November 2012


Staff work on the new structure at the site of the Chernobyl nuclear reactor yesterday. The first section of the colossal arch-shaped structure has now been raised


Project officials on Tuesday have hailed the arch raising as a significant step in a complex effort to clean up the consequences of the explosion.

Upon completion, the shelter will be moved on tracks over the building containing the destroyed reactor, allowing work to begin on dismantling the reactor and disposing of radioactive waste.

Suma Chakrabati, president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, which is leading the project, called Tuesday 'a very significant milestone, which is a tribute to the ongoing commitment of the international donor community, and an important step towards overcoming the legacy of the accident.'
The shelter, shaped like a gargantuan Quonset hut, will be 843ft by 492 ft when completed and at its apex will be higher than the Statue of Liberty.
The April 26, 1986, accident in the then-Soviet republic of Ukraine sent a cloud of radioactive fallout over much of Europe and forced the evacuation of about 115,000 people from the plant's vicinity.









Pretty impressive
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 2954
Pictured: The colossal cap being lowered over exploded nuclear reactor to protect the world from Chernobyl's crumbling tomb

By LARISA BROWN
PUBLISHED: 19:56 EST, 27 November 2012


Staff work on the new structure at the site of the Chernobyl nuclear reactor yesterday. The first section of the colossal arch-shaped structure has now been raised


Project officials on Tuesday have hailed the arch raising as a significant step in a complex effort to clean up the consequences of the explosion.

Upon completion, the shelter will be moved on tracks over the building containing the destroyed reactor, allowing work to begin on dismantling the reactor and disposing of radioactive waste.

Suma Chakrabati, president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, which is leading the project, called Tuesday 'a very significant milestone, which is a tribute to the ongoing commitment of the international donor community, and an important step towards overcoming the legacy of the accident.'
The shelter, shaped like a gargantuan Quonset hut, will be 843ft by 492 ft when completed and at its apex will be higher than the Statue of Liberty.
The April 26, 1986, accident in the then-Soviet republic of Ukraine sent a cloud of radioactive fallout over much of Europe and forced the evacuation of about 115,000 people from the plant's vicinity.







Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 2954
The way global economies are heading, Soon there won't be any money to fund Human reliefs for errors, mistakes like Cherno and Fukushima.... and others...

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Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 2954
Each run of the GFS gets slower with the front moving into FL.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 2954
----According to a report from the German Press Agency (DPA), a spokesman from the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that the country had received international pledges of $941 million to build the steel-and-concrete structure, and construction is set to begin in October 2011.

----The entire completed structure - weighing some 31,000 tonnes - will be pushed over unit 4 and part of its turbine hall using hydraulic jacks in a three-day sliding operation scheduled before the end of 2015. End walls will then be built to strengthen and seal the NSC, creating a means of confining dust and debris from dismantlement while protecting it from harsh weather.

-------However, the structure is not designed for radiation shielding: gamma radiation doses outside of the NSC will be about the same as they are now


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People are sensitive on here. Maybe all the sensitive people should go to Sensitivethug's blog. Anyways my post wasn't attacking them I was just stating their are new employees there.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 2954
Quoting 703. TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's highly rude and an insult to those who spent years in schooling to work at the National Weather Service...


If you spend years going to school to be an engineer, and the bridge that you design fails, is it "rude" for people to outwardly criticize you? I have the utmost respect for NWS workers but the ones here in NJ especially are very guilty of letting the models do the talking and then have the forecast bust miserably. And I'm not just talking once or twice.
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Quoting 703. TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's highly rude and an insult to those who spent years in schooling to work at the National Weather Service...


Cody get off your stick as they are newbees. Some of the regulars there are gone.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 2954
Quoting 715. Jelloboy:


I heard it here first, now it's blowing up my Twitter feed. WeatherUnderground, your source for breaking weather and sports news.
NOOOOOOOOOOO!
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721. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #28
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON FRANCISCO (T1327)
12:00 PM JST October 19 2013
=====================================

Near Marianas Island

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Francisco (920 hPa) located at 16.5N 140.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 150 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 8 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
180 NM from the center in north quadrant
150 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 18.5N 137.6E - 115 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
45 HRS: 20.6N 136.1E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan
69 HRS: 23.6N 134.6E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan
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You know it's downtime when we're doling out past advisories. Sheesh.
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Quoting 704. sunlinepr:
Hope this degrades or skips Japan, else better moving the Chernobyl Steel cover to Fukushima...

Here here.
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I think were pretty sane 8 years removed from those Storms of 05 eh, CT?

What a ride 05 was,,sheesh.

From Cindy to Wilma.

One fer da books

Memorie's fade,
like looking thru a fogged mirror



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Quoting 688. TropicalAnalystwx13:
8 years ago now:

WILMA HAS DEVELOPED THE DREADED PINHOLE EYE. REPORTS FROM THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING WILMA BETWEEN 19Z AND
23Z INDICATED A 7-8 N MI WIDE EYE...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
DROPPING FROM 970 MB TO 954 MB IN 3 HR 14 MIN. THE MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT AT 850 MB WERE 101 KT.
SINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED ORGANIZATION...
WITH A RING OF COLD TOPS OF -80C TO -87C SURROUNDING THE EYE.


Has it really been 8 years? I remember going to bed at around 8pm with a Category 2, woke up with the strongest hurricane ever recorded and it was going to make landfall in my area.
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Quoting 650. Hurricane614:


Thanks for that!

If he cited some sources, it would have been even better.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6032
Quoting 709. Patrap:
NFL Coach Bum Phillips has passed away at age 90.


I heard it here first, now it's blowing up my Twitter feed. WeatherUnderground, your source for breaking weather and sports news.
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Quoting 704. sunlinepr:
Hope this degrades or skips Japan, else better moving the Chernobyl Steel cover to Fukushima...

I have a feeling Tokyo will be on the right front quadrant of this one.
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Quoting 688. TropicalAnalystwx13:
8 years ago now:

WILMA HAS DEVELOPED THE DREADED PINHOLE EYE. REPORTS FROM THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING WILMA BETWEEN 19Z AND
23Z INDICATED A 7-8 N MI WIDE EYE...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
DROPPING FROM 970 MB TO 954 MB IN 3 HR 14 MIN. THE MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT AT 850 MB WERE 101 KT.
SINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED ORGANIZATION...
WITH A RING OF COLD TOPS OF -80C TO -87C SURROUNDING THE EYE.


So that's where that meme came from!
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Quoting 700. StormTrackerScott:


Maybe they can teach these newbees at eh NWS in Melbourne how to make an extended forecast as I have had to write them this week on how bad their forecast was in the extended. They were showing 20% chances of rain when the HPC folks were forecasting an 1 inch plus of rain Monday thru Wenesday.


Well, keep in mind that its always better in a professional and a scientific sense to have a conservative forecast as apposed to having a "boy who cried wolf forecast".

But the Melbourne office does often seem to be more conservative than comparable offices. For example a great way to compare how different offices forecast is by clicking on the point forecast map very close to the boundary of either office viewing area.

I notice they tend to forecast warmer highs and lows for cold front passages than the Ruskin or the Miami office, and often project lower precip chances on average from days 3 to 7 than Miami and Ruskin.


Again, conservative forecasting is good and professional, but one must be careful not to go too conservative such that the forecast doesn't accurately portray upcoming events effectively until within a few days.

I've always felt that a fairly long-term conservative forecast is good as long as there is is an open forecast discussion explaining that rain chances may be bumped up significantly more with time, or a similar trend for temps.

Regardless though, calling them newbies isn't very respectful, I think they deserve better, right?

I can assure you as a student getting into the NWS is highly competitive and requires a very rigorous program in meteorology that is heavily quantitative along with a very high GPA and other requirements such as plenty of internship experience.

Any forecaster at a NWS office is deserving of great respect and should be considered an expert in the science of meteorology.

I've gotten to meet a couple of them at the NWS Tallahassee through the North Florida AMS chapter here at school, and I can assure you they KNOW their meteorology.
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Quoting 692. hurricanes2018:


only hurricane so far this year.



no its not
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There once was an ice age. There isn't one anymore. In fact there have been many ice ages. What that means is the earth's temperature goes up and down. That is natural. What isn't natural is thinking that if we give a bunch of money to the UN that we can stop nature. If there is indeed an emergency man will either adapt to change or perish - that too is natural. We do have the power of private enterprise and science to help us as well - but one thing I am certain of, the UN is not the solution, assuming there is even a problem.
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NFL Coach Bum Phillips has passed away at age 90.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Quoting 690. Patrap:
Ge, I thought you said it was because it was, er, down the coast and figure out why it is all bendy

I'm gonna go with the the published Science data on the Maldives, but thanks anyway.



Main article: Geography of the Maldives



See also: Atolls of the Maldives and List of islands of the Maldives



Malhosmadulhu Atoll seen from space. "Fasdutere" and Southern Maalhosmadulhu Atoll can be seen in this picture.


Maldives consists of 1,192 coral islands grouped in a double chain of 26 atolls, along the north-south direction, spread over roughly 90,000 square kilometres (35,000 sq mi), making this one of the world's most dispersed countries. It lies between latitudes 1°S and 8°N, and longitudes 72° and 74°E. The atolls are composed of live coral reefs and sand bars, situated atop a submarine ridge 960 kilometres (600 mi) long that rises abruptly from the depths of the Indian Ocean and runs north to south.

Only near the southern end of this natural coral barricade do two open passages permit safe ship navigation from one side of the Indian Ocean to the other through the territorial waters of Maldives. For administrative purposes the Maldivian government organised these atolls into twenty one administrative divisions. The largest island of Maldives is Gan, which belongs to Laamu Atoll or Hahdhummathi Maldives.

In Addu Atoll the westernmost islands are connected by roads over the reef (collectively called Link Road) and the total length of the road is 14 km (9 mi).

Maldives is the lowest country in the world, with a maximum natural ground level oRapid Uplift: Maldives Reef Sea Level Curves: What About Palk ...
suvratk.blogspot.com/2009/05/maldives-reef-sea-le vel-curves-what.html‎f only 2.4 metres (7 ft 10 in), with the average being only 1.5 metres (4 ft 11 in) above sea level, although in areas where construction exists, this has been increased to several metres.

However, more than 80 per cent of the country's land is composed of coral islands that rise less than one metre above sea level.

Bit old, but this will do as a primer for you.Rapid Uplift: Maldives Reef Sea Level Curves: What About Palk ...
suvratk.blogspot.com/2009/05/maldives-reef-sea-le vel-curves-what.html‎
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706. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


sure it'll weaken.. but NOT likely miss mainland Japan.
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Quoting 704. sunlinepr:
Hope this degrades or skips Japan, else better moving the Chernobyl Steel cover to Fukushima..


Ehh...no.
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Hope this degrades or skips Japan, else better moving the Chernobyl Steel cover to Fukushima...

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Quoting 700. StormTrackerScott:


Maybe they can teach these newbees at eh NWS in Melbourne how to make an extended forecast as I have had to write them this week on how bad their forecast was in the extended. They were showing 20% chances of rain when the HPC folks were forecasting an 1 inch plus of rain Monday thru Wenesday.

That's highly rude and an insult to those who spent years in schooling to work at the National Weather Service...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
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701. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


couple of possible cyclones in the coming days..

"Lekima"
"01R" possible near Réunion Island
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Quoting 698. Jedkins01:
000
FXUS62 KTBW 182322
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
720 PM EDT FRI OCT 18 2013

.UPDATE (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
23Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCH OF THE CONUS
UNDERNEATH THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP AND BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING. THE
TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY PIVOTING EASTWARD FROM A POSITION EXTENDING
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SOUTHERN
"LOBE" OF ENERGY ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SWING ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND HELP TO SUPPRESS
SOUTHWARD THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED OUR WEATHER THE PAST
FEW DAYS. AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE RIDGE IS STILL HOLDING STRONG OVER
THE FL PENINSULA WITH THE DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SHOWN BY
WV IMAGERY STREAMING OVER THE CENTRAL/NE GULF COAST. SOME OF THIS
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH WITH TIME AND ALLOW FOR BETTER
CHANCES FOR A FEW SCT SHOWERS TO ENTER THE FORECAST DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...A VERY WEAK GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA THIS EVENING TO THE SOUTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN GA. THE WEAK GRADIENT AND
IMPRESSIVE TERRESTRIAL HEATING FOR MID/LATE OCTOBER ALLOWED FOR WELL
DEFINED SEA-BREEZES ALONG BOTH THE WEST AND EAST COASTS OF THE
STATE. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS JUST ENOUGH ALONG OUR WEST COAST
SEA-BREEZE TO FORCE A FEW VERY ISOLATED AND SHALLOW SHOWERS EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE WAS REALLY QUITE HOSTILE TO CONVECTION
TODAY WITH A VERY WELL DEFINED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 800MB ON
THE MORNING KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE. THIS SHOWS JUST HOW STRONG THE
LOW LEVEL FOCUS CAN GET ALONG OUR SEA-BREEZE TO OVERCOME THE
NEGATIVE FACTORS. IN FACT...THE HOSTILITY OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO
RISING MOTION AND THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THE FIRST ISOLATED SHOWER
LEAD TO DISCUSSION OF WHETHER OR NOT IT WAS A FIRE BEING DETECTED BY
THE RADAR. HOWEVER... ANALYSIS OF THE VARIOUS DUAL-POL RADAR
PRODUCTS CONFIRMED THAT INDEED THE RADAR WAS SAMPLING METEOROLOGICAL
HYDROMETEORS...AKA...RAINDROPS. GO FIGURE...WHEN FLORIDA WANTS TO
RAIN...IT RAINS.


REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...SUN HAS SET AND THINGS ARE COOLING
OFF. SEA-BREEZE WILL FOLLOW AND DIMINISH IN NEXT HOUR OR 2 ALLOWING
ANY LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR OUR LAND AREAS.
THE SLOW LOSS OF THE RIDGE STRENGTH BY LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH A
WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS OFF THE COAST OF
SARASOTA/CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL SEE A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE AT A FEW MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND ALONG WITH OVERALL LESS SUPPRESSION AND
ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE...WE SHOULD HAVE SOME
ACTIVITY ON THE RADAR FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO BE ENOUGH TO DO ANYTHING BUT BRIEFLY HALT ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES. A WET AFTERNOON/EVENING IS CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTED. MOST
OF YOUR SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 80S
TO LOWER 90S. ENJOY!



The Ruskin office threw in some humor tonight, I got a kick out of this! Its also nice to see odd weather phenomenon bothers them like it does me, lol.


Maybe they can teach these newbees at eh NWS in Melbourne how to make an extended forecast as I have had to write them this week on how bad their forecast was in the extended. They were showing 20% chances of rain when the HPC folks were forecasting an 1 inch plus of rain Monday thru Wenesday.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 2954
TPPN12 PGTW 190025

A. SUPER TYPHOON 26W (FRANCISCO)

B. 18/2332Z

C. 16.2N

D. 140.4E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/7.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY B YIELDS
AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT OF
6.5. MET YIELDS A 7.0 AND PT AND PT YIELDS A 6.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
18/2017Z 15.9N 140.7E SSMS
18/2238Z 16.0N 140.5E SSMS


BERMEA
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 776
000
FXUS62 KTBW 182322
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
720 PM EDT FRI OCT 18 2013

.UPDATE (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
23Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCH OF THE CONUS
UNDERNEATH THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP AND BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING. THE
TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY PIVOTING EASTWARD FROM A POSITION EXTENDING
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SOUTHERN
"LOBE" OF ENERGY ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SWING ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND HELP TO SUPPRESS
SOUTHWARD THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED OUR WEATHER THE PAST
FEW DAYS. AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE RIDGE IS STILL HOLDING STRONG OVER
THE FL PENINSULA WITH THE DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SHOWN BY
WV IMAGERY STREAMING OVER THE CENTRAL/NE GULF COAST. SOME OF THIS
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH WITH TIME AND ALLOW FOR BETTER
CHANCES FOR A FEW SCT SHOWERS TO ENTER THE FORECAST DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...A VERY WEAK GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA THIS EVENING TO THE SOUTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN GA. THE WEAK GRADIENT AND
IMPRESSIVE TERRESTRIAL HEATING FOR MID/LATE OCTOBER ALLOWED FOR WELL
DEFINED SEA-BREEZES ALONG BOTH THE WEST AND EAST COASTS OF THE
STATE. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS JUST ENOUGH ALONG OUR WEST COAST
SEA-BREEZE TO FORCE A FEW VERY ISOLATED AND SHALLOW SHOWERS EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE WAS REALLY QUITE HOSTILE TO CONVECTION
TODAY WITH A VERY WELL DEFINED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 800MB ON
THE MORNING KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE. THIS SHOWS JUST HOW STRONG THE
LOW LEVEL FOCUS CAN GET ALONG OUR SEA-BREEZE TO OVERCOME THE
NEGATIVE FACTORS. IN FACT...THE HOSTILITY OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO
RISING MOTION AND THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THE FIRST ISOLATED SHOWER
LEAD TO DISCUSSION OF WHETHER OR NOT IT WAS A FIRE BEING DETECTED BY
THE RADAR. HOWEVER... ANALYSIS OF THE VARIOUS DUAL-POL RADAR
PRODUCTS CONFIRMED THAT INDEED THE RADAR WAS SAMPLING METEOROLOGICAL
HYDROMETEORS...AKA...RAINDROPS. GO FIGURE...WHEN FLORIDA WANTS TO
RAIN...IT RAINS.


REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...SUN HAS SET AND THINGS ARE COOLING
OFF. SEA-BREEZE WILL FOLLOW AND DIMINISH IN NEXT HOUR OR 2 ALLOWING
ANY LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR OUR LAND AREAS.
THE SLOW LOSS OF THE RIDGE STRENGTH BY LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH A
WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS OFF THE COAST OF
SARASOTA/CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL SEE A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE AT A FEW MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND ALONG WITH OVERALL LESS SUPPRESSION AND
ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE...WE SHOULD HAVE SOME
ACTIVITY ON THE RADAR FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO BE ENOUGH TO DO ANYTHING BUT BRIEFLY HALT ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES. A WET AFTERNOON/EVENING IS CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTED. MOST
OF YOUR SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 80S
TO LOWER 90S. ENJOY!



The Ruskin office threw in some humor tonight, I got a kick out of this! Its also nice to see odd weather phenomenon bothers them like it does me, lol.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7447

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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