Intriguing Tipping Points TV Series Begins Airing Saturday at 9pm EDT

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 PM GMT on October 18, 2013

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How does one tell the most important story of our time--the emergence of our great Climate Disruption--without boring one's audience to tears, but at the same time, not resorting to over-hyped spinning of the science? “Tipping Points”, a landmark 6-part TV series that begins airing at 9 pm EDT Saturday, October 19 on The Weather Channel, aims to do just that. "Tipping Points" follows a group of preeminent scientists as they venture off the grid to explore the perilous tipping points making our weather systems more extreme and unpredictable.

The phenomena of “tipping points” follows the concept that, at a particular moment in time, a small change can have a large, long-term consequence on a fragile climate system already in a state of flux. Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. Further, when the situation is pushed past the “tipping point,” it will potentially lead to a chain reaction, putting other ecosystems around the globe in peril. “Tipping Points” will feature several of the most critical examples, including the collapse of the Greenland ice sheet, total melting of the Himalayan icecap glaciers, die-back of the Amazon rainforest, shutdown of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation, and the rapid melt of the permafrost in Siberia. "Tipping Points" will not only show how climate changes affect local communities in exotic and distant locales like the Amazon or Siberia, but how it impacts and is relevant to people from Australia and Asia to Europe, South America to Canada and every community in between. The series explores what is happening at the most dramatic tipping points and looks to find answers to understand what can be done to stem the tide of change before we do irreparable damage, and ultimately put our own lives at risk.



The series is hosted by polar explorer and climate journalist Bernice Notenboom, the first woman to climb Mt. Everest and walk to the North and South Poles. She is joined by a number of leading international environmental scientists in each episode, such as Dr. Jason Box, Dr. Matthew England, Professor Peter Cox, and more. In each episode, Notenboom heads off to a far corner of the world to find scientists in the field undertaking vital climate research to try to understand how the climate system is changing and how long we have to make significant changes before we reach a tipping point--a point of no return when our climate system will be changed irreversibly.



The first episode at 9 pm EDT/8 pm CDT this Saturday will be "Amazon Rainforest Risks". "Tipping Points" host Bernice Notenboom will join Peter Cox, Professor of Climate System Dynamics at the University of Exeter, on an expedition across the vast Amazon Rainforest to explore the mega droughts and tree deaths occurring that threaten the forest's survival this century. The Amazon stores CO2 in its soils and biomass equivalent to about fifteen years of human-caused emissions, so a massive die-back of the forest could greatly accelerate global warming. Photosynthesis in the world's largest rainforest keeps the Earth cooler by taking about 2 billion tons of carbon dioxide out of the air each year. However, exceptional droughts in both 2005 and 2010 reversed this process. The Amazon emitted 3 billion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere in 2005, causing a net 5 billion ton increase in CO2 to the atmosphere--roughly equivalent to 19% of the total CO2 emissions to the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels that year. A 2013 NASA-led study found that an area of the Amazon rainforest twice the size of California continues to suffer from the effects of the 2005 mega drought. A 2008 paper by Professor Cox warned that their climate model predicted a rapidly increasing risk of 2005-like droughts from 1-in-20 years in the present climate to 1-in-2 years by 2025, if we continue emitting CO2 at our current "business-as-usual" pace. A 2013 study by Fu et al. found that the dry season length has grown by about seven days per decade in the southern part of the rainforest. If this trend continues in coming decades at half of that rate, the fire season that contributed to the 2005 drought would become the new norm by the late 21st century. The leader of the study, Rong Fu, explained: "The dry season over the southern Amazon is already a marginal for maintaining rainforest. At some point, if it becomes too long, the rainforest will reach a tipping point."



Typhoon Francisco headed towards Japan
Category 4 Typhoon Francisco continues to intensify over the warm waters of the Western Pacific about 200 miles west of Guam. Even though the eye of Francisco passed more than 150 miles west of Guam Friday morning, the huge storm brought sustained winds of 37 mph, gusting to 46 mph, to the island, along with 6.75" of rain. Satellite loops show that Francisco is well-organized with an impressive area of heavy thunderstorms and a prominent eye. With warm waters that extend to great depth and low wind shear, continued strengthening is likely, and Francisco is forecast to become a super typhoon with 150 mph winds by Saturday as it heads northwest towards Japan. The European model now shows that Francisco will miss Japan, but the GFS model predicts that Francisco will hit Japan on Thursday next week. There is very high uncertainty in the storm's track that far into the future, since the timing of Francisco's turn the northeast is difficult to predict.

The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 797. MarkMatis:
Sure is a shame that extreme weather was so rampant in 2013:
Link
Even more of a shame that Morano and his sycophants haven't yet bothered to look up the meaning of the word "extreme":
ex-treme: (ecks-TREEM) adjective (prenominal) 1 : Most remote in any direction; outermost or farthest; either of the two limits or ends of a scale or range of possibilities.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13278
Sure is a shame that extreme weather was so rampant in 2013:
Link
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796. VR46L
W-PAC keeps on spitting them out

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Quoting 754. TropicalAnalystwx13:

12z ECMWF brought it down to 972 millibars. 0z SHIPS brings it up to 88kt in 120 hours. With low shear, a relatively moist environment, and a MJO/CCKW coupling, I don't see any reason this won't make a run at the strongest storm of the season. Maybe even major hurricane status.

Or, as Isaac suggested earlier, it will falter because this is 2013 and the term hurricane does not exist apparently.


The term "super typhoon" sure as heck exists though in 2013.
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96E up to 60%/80%.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THIS LOW MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. INTERESTS ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

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Holy Moly Aussie! I can't even imagine what that must be like.
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208 homes lost to the raging fires west of Sydney. Most were lost on Thursday.



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Want people to trust you? Try apologising for the rain

If you want people to see you as trustworthy, try apologising for situations outside of your control such as the rain or a transport delay. That's the implication of a new study by researchers at Harvard Business School and Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania.

http://www.bps-research-digest.blogspot.co.uk/201 3/10/want-people-to-trust-you-try.html

: )
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Here is my forecast for Sat might, next week

Rain heavy at times, low of 31 degrees. Why isn't this snow?

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No one had mentioned that Francisco is now a Category 5?

JTWC has it at 140 knots and they expect Francisco to intensify slightly to 145 knots.

Also, I think this little guy would get decimated by Francisco.
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788. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Disturbance One and Two from RSMC Nadi..

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
21:00 PM FST October 19 2013
====================================

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 01F (1005 hPa) located at 11.5S 166.2E is reported as slowly moving. Position fair based on multispectral infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Convection persistent in the past 12 hours. Organization has slightly improved in the past 24 hours. System lies under upper diffluent region in a low sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and moves it westward with slight intensification.

Potential for this disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 is MODERATE.

System #2
------------

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 02F (1006 hPa) located at 4.0S 178.0E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multispectral infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Convection persistent in the past 24 hours. Organization has not improved much in past 24 hours. System lies under upper diffluent region in a low sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and moves it west than southward with slight intensification.

Potential for this disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours is LOW.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
19/0832 UTC 16.9N 139.4E T7.0/7.0 FRANCISCO
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785. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
15:00 PM JST October 19 2013
======================================

Southwest of Minami torishima
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 19.8N 151.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest slowly.

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 10.0N 164.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.
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783. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON FRANCISCO (T1327)
15:00 PM JST October 19 2013
=====================================

Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Francisco (920 hPa) located at 16.7N 139.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 150 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 8 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
180 NM from the center in north quadrant
150 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 18.8N 137.4E - 115 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 21.3N 136.0E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan
72 HRS: 24.0N 134.5E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan
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Quoting 779. daddyjames:


should that be(?)
. . . never been better equipped . . . ?

could be... but its true... no one seems to expect or budget for disasters.. even though several minor ones strike each year, and major ones every couple of years
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Quoting 780. kabloie:
Man, Francisco is another wild monster loose in the Pacific.



wow - tight core kabloie
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Man, Francisco is another wild monster loose in the Pacific.

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Quoting 764. sar2401:

I don't know what global economy you live in but the markets in North America, Europe, and most of Asia closed today at or near all-time highs. Oil is the lowest it's been in months. The US dollar is down against most world currencies, which gives those countries more commodity buying power. Agricultural commodity prices are continuing down, as are interest rates. If we have to have a disaster, the world's economies have never been equipped to handle it.


should that be(?)
. . . never been better equipped . . . ?
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Quoting 775. AussieStorm:
The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days.

Jeff Masters


Has any of the models been reliable??


It's been another good year here in the Fl Keys (since Wilma, Irene, Georges and Donna)
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Quoting 761. sunlinepr:


yep - beautiful sky tonight in the Florida Keys
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Quoting 775. AussieStorm:
The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days.

Jeff Masters


Has any of the models been reliable??


They predicted Ingrid and Karen's genesis with much accuracy.
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The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days.

Jeff Masters


Has any of the models been reliable??
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774. BtnTx
Quoting 772. 1900hurricane:

Yep, the maratime tropical air is pushing over a warm front that is sitting right on the coastline and finding some elevated instability to develop into thunderstorms while being aided by an upper air jet streak.







The end result:

Excellent response with graphics! Thanks!
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Quoting 771. BtnTx:
A lot of rain is pouring down in the Houston area: wow!

Yep, the maratime tropical air is pushing over a warm front that is sitting right on the coastline and finding some elevated instability to develop into thunderstorms while being aided by an upper air jet streak.







The end result:

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771. BtnTx
A lot of rain is pouring down in the Houston area: wow!
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Quoting 769. Civicane49:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI OCT 18 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

Meanwhile..

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT OCT 19 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FIVE DAYS.

&&
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30262
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI OCT 18 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
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Quoting 764. sar2401:

I don't know what global economy you live in but the markets in North America, Europe, and most of Asia closed today at or near all-time highs. Oil is the lowest it's been in months. The US dollar is down against most world currencies, which gives those countries more commodity buying power. Agricultural commodity prices are continuing down, as are interest rates. If we have to have a disaster, the world's economies have never been equipped to handle it.


The Pacific including the Hawaii, Mariana's, west coast and Alaska Fisheries are also closing everyday in all-time radiation highs.... What economy is going to put an end to those 3 reactors leaking and contaminating the area, for sure we don't know... Meanwhile the leaking keeps occuring

and Francisco is going to help in contributing with some clean water for the cleaning process...

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Quoting 765. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Well goodnight everyone. I'm on fall break, so going to take this opportunity to get some sleep and re-energize.
Fall break sounds fun :/ Honduras can never get the holidays right.
Quoting 760. KoritheMan:


Nah, I'd actually love to play with you. Send me your friend code through Facebook or something. We'll set something up.
Lol I would love to play with you but I have it confiscate until I pass my quarters that ends on Thursday 24.
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Well goodnight everyone. I'm on fall break, so going to take this opportunity to get some sleep and re-energize.
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Quoting sunlinepr:
The way global economies are heading, Soon there won't be any money to fund Human reliefs for errors, mistakes like Cherno and Fukushima.... and others...


I don't know what global economy you live in but the markets in North America, Europe, and most of Asia closed today at or near all-time highs. Oil is the lowest it's been in months. The US dollar is down against most world currencies, which gives those countries more commodity buying power. Agricultural commodity prices are continuing down, as are interest rates. If we have to have a disaster, the world's economies have never been equipped to handle it.
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Quoting 748. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Jinx alert! Will the EPAC finally see a major hurricane?


No, it's 2013 so major hurricanes don't exist in the EPAC and ATL. :P

If it (the AOI) can continue to organize, remain in its favorable environment, and not do some stupid weakening for no reason episode, then this potential storm could very possibly become the strongest storm of the year in the EPAC or ATL.
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Quoting 758. allancalderini:
lol you look really eager of me getting one.


Nah, I'd actually love to play with you. Send me your friend code through Facebook or something. We'll set something up.
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Such a difference....

Conservative 3PM : HENCE ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...PEAKING ON MONDAY.


Bullish 9PM : TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 53W IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BIG MOISTURE SURGE WITH PW
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.5 INCHES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE INTO
OUR AREA LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON AND YIELD NMRS TSTMS WITH A SIG
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT.


Very strange... but interesting.
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Quoting 753. KoritheMan:


Wait, did you get Pokemon as well?
lol you look really eager of me getting one.
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Quoting 683. Pallis:
Not our business. I am well aware that the Maldives are sinking and that is a natural process. This is proven by the fact that explorers noticed the cliffs getting shorter just like Wales. Scotland is shooting out of the water at an exponential rate. No one here seems to realize that coastlines go up and down, sometimes on a regular basis. Scotland is rising because the huge ice sheet that pushed it down has melted a long time ago. Isostatic rebound would be the term.
Everybody in science realizes that subsidence and lift are integral components of relative sea level. The fact the rate and amount of sea level rise varies across the globe is well known and frequently discussed in the science and the reporting of the sciences of AGW/CC.

You are the one with the limited perspective, Pallis. Science considers your geological aspects, but you seem to ignore all other factors. I'll bet you have never even read the Climate Change pages right here at Weather Underground where it says:

Factors Driving Sea Level Rise

Sea level rise is due to a number of causes, some of which may exert a more regional influence than others. These include:

Thermal expansion – As seawater becomes warmer it expands. Heat in the upper layer of the ocean is released quickly into the atmosphere. However, heat absorbed by the deeper layers of the ocean will take much longer to be released and therefore, be stored in the ocean much longer and have significant impacts on future ocean warming.

An increase in freshwater inputs from mountain glaciers, ice sheets, ice caps, and sea ice, as well as other atmospheric and hydrologic cycles due to rising global surface and ocean temperatures

Physical forces – Subsidence and lifting are associated with tectonic activity and the extraction of water and resources such as gas and oil. These types of forces don't actually change the volume of the ocean, only the relative sea level. However, these changes do affect movement over land, as well as estimates from satellite altimetry. For example, in Scandinavia's Gulf of Bothnia, the weight of glaciers had caused the land beneath it to compress and sink. Now that glaciers are melting and the pressure has been released, the region is lifting at a rate of as much as 11 mm per year. This rebound makes it seem like sea level is dropping even though it is actually rising by 2.1 mm per year (Milne et al., 2001).

Ocean current variations – Large, regional ocean currents which move large quantities of water from one location to another also affect relative sea level without changing the actual volume of the ocean. For example, el Niño moves water from one side of the Pacific to the other every three or four years. These large-scale variations also affect the relative sea level of certain areas. In normal conditions, trade winds blow across the Pacific toward the west. According to NOAA, the trade winds push warm surface water to the west Pacific, so the sea level is roughly 1/2 meter higher in Indonesia than it is in Ecuador. During el Niño years, this warm water is pushed over to the eastern Pacific.


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Quoting 755. BaltimoreBrian:


Did you see Cody's real picture I had in my blog? I had to take it down.

I'm beautiful. :]
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Quoting 739. StormTrackerScott:
Cody better hurry up and get to bed before mommie comes in and turns his light off.



Did you see Cody's real picture I had in my blog? I took it down later.
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Quoting 748. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Jinx alert! Will the EPAC finally see a major hurricane?


12z ECMWF brought it down to 972 millibars. 0z SHIPS brings it up to 88kt in 120 hours. With low shear, a relatively moist environment, and a MJO/CCKW coupling, I don't see any reason this won't make a run at the strongest storm of the season. Maybe even major hurricane status.

Or, as Isaac suggested earlier, it will falter because this is 2013 and the term hurricane does not exist apparently.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30262
Quoting 752. allancalderini:
lol this post really make me laugh this can show how bored I am. I hope I might play pokemon x and y when I finish my quarter exams.The Ace of the NHemisphere might be save by the Wpac which has been pretty active this month.


Wait, did you get Pokemon as well?
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Quoting 742. KoritheMan:
If you say something that you know is going to provoke an opposite response, it's not very classy to run away with your tail between your legs.

Although to your credit, there was a follow up post.
lol this post really make me laugh this can show how bored I am. I hope I might play pokemon x and y when I finish my quarter exams.The Ace of the NHemisphere might be save by the Wpac which has been pretty active this month.
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Quoting 748. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Jinx alert! Will the EPAC finally see a major hurricane?



Has a better chance than the Atlantic, at least.

But then again, anything does.
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Quoting 748. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Jinx alert! Will the EPAC finally see a major hurricane?



Not before you graduate from Embry-Riddle!
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Reunion has 838,000 people. Quite a lot.
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Jinx alert! Will the EPAC finally see a major hurricane?

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.