Intriguing Tipping Points TV Series Begins Airing Saturday at 9pm EDT

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 PM GMT on October 18, 2013

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How does one tell the most important story of our time--the emergence of our great Climate Disruption--without boring one's audience to tears, but at the same time, not resorting to over-hyped spinning of the science? “Tipping Points”, a landmark 6-part TV series that begins airing at 9 pm EDT Saturday, October 19 on The Weather Channel, aims to do just that. "Tipping Points" follows a group of preeminent scientists as they venture off the grid to explore the perilous tipping points making our weather systems more extreme and unpredictable.

The phenomena of “tipping points” follows the concept that, at a particular moment in time, a small change can have a large, long-term consequence on a fragile climate system already in a state of flux. Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. Further, when the situation is pushed past the “tipping point,” it will potentially lead to a chain reaction, putting other ecosystems around the globe in peril. “Tipping Points” will feature several of the most critical examples, including the collapse of the Greenland ice sheet, total melting of the Himalayan icecap glaciers, die-back of the Amazon rainforest, shutdown of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation, and the rapid melt of the permafrost in Siberia. "Tipping Points" will not only show how climate changes affect local communities in exotic and distant locales like the Amazon or Siberia, but how it impacts and is relevant to people from Australia and Asia to Europe, South America to Canada and every community in between. The series explores what is happening at the most dramatic tipping points and looks to find answers to understand what can be done to stem the tide of change before we do irreparable damage, and ultimately put our own lives at risk.



The series is hosted by polar explorer and climate journalist Bernice Notenboom, the first woman to climb Mt. Everest and walk to the North and South Poles. She is joined by a number of leading international environmental scientists in each episode, such as Dr. Jason Box, Dr. Matthew England, Professor Peter Cox, and more. In each episode, Notenboom heads off to a far corner of the world to find scientists in the field undertaking vital climate research to try to understand how the climate system is changing and how long we have to make significant changes before we reach a tipping point--a point of no return when our climate system will be changed irreversibly.



The first episode at 9 pm EDT/8 pm CDT this Saturday will be "Amazon Rainforest Risks". "Tipping Points" host Bernice Notenboom will join Peter Cox, Professor of Climate System Dynamics at the University of Exeter, on an expedition across the vast Amazon Rainforest to explore the mega droughts and tree deaths occurring that threaten the forest's survival this century. The Amazon stores CO2 in its soils and biomass equivalent to about fifteen years of human-caused emissions, so a massive die-back of the forest could greatly accelerate global warming. Photosynthesis in the world's largest rainforest keeps the Earth cooler by taking about 2 billion tons of carbon dioxide out of the air each year. However, exceptional droughts in both 2005 and 2010 reversed this process. The Amazon emitted 3 billion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere in 2005, causing a net 5 billion ton increase in CO2 to the atmosphere--roughly equivalent to 19% of the total CO2 emissions to the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels that year. A 2013 NASA-led study found that an area of the Amazon rainforest twice the size of California continues to suffer from the effects of the 2005 mega drought. A 2008 paper by Professor Cox warned that their climate model predicted a rapidly increasing risk of 2005-like droughts from 1-in-20 years in the present climate to 1-in-2 years by 2025, if we continue emitting CO2 at our current "business-as-usual" pace. A 2013 study by Fu et al. found that the dry season length has grown by about seven days per decade in the southern part of the rainforest. If this trend continues in coming decades at half of that rate, the fire season that contributed to the 2005 drought would become the new norm by the late 21st century. The leader of the study, Rong Fu, explained: "The dry season over the southern Amazon is already a marginal for maintaining rainforest. At some point, if it becomes too long, the rainforest will reach a tipping point."



Typhoon Francisco headed towards Japan
Category 4 Typhoon Francisco continues to intensify over the warm waters of the Western Pacific about 200 miles west of Guam. Even though the eye of Francisco passed more than 150 miles west of Guam Friday morning, the huge storm brought sustained winds of 37 mph, gusting to 46 mph, to the island, along with 6.75" of rain. Satellite loops show that Francisco is well-organized with an impressive area of heavy thunderstorms and a prominent eye. With warm waters that extend to great depth and low wind shear, continued strengthening is likely, and Francisco is forecast to become a super typhoon with 150 mph winds by Saturday as it heads northwest towards Japan. The European model now shows that Francisco will miss Japan, but the GFS model predicts that Francisco will hit Japan on Thursday next week. There is very high uncertainty in the storm's track that far into the future, since the timing of Francisco's turn the northeast is difficult to predict.

The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 142. Tazmanian:




you are really making no sense at all and I don't think any one is even following your commets



why not take a break from the blog be for you end up getting banned



your doing nothing more then wasting blog space with your little commets that have nothing too with weather


Well sport, maybe try reading Dr. Masters entry, the quote came from there .


I'll ride my own razor down the slope Taz, as I'm purty thick skinned,

The Amazon emitted 3 billion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere in 2005, causing a net 5 billion ton increase in CO2 to the atmosphere--roughly equivalent to 19% of the total CO2 emissions to the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels that year.
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The five hottest summers (1936, 1934, 1954, 1980 and 1930) all occurred with CO2 below 350 PPM. Four of these summers were before the number one cause of global warming: SUVs and fossil fuel-burning vehicles.
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Quoting 137. fireflymom:
 We do have some warning of this particular possability.
Astronomers say asteroid might collide with Earth— in 2032


Ukrainian astronomers say an asteroid might collide with Earth in a couple of decades, a Russian news service reported Thursday.


Space & Earth -
Space Exploration



It is a very scary possibility.
And like I mentioned, many near Earth asteroids go completely unnoticed.
And its only a matter of time based on Earth's past history.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9397
Quoting 138. Patrap:
136. FLwolverine

Freudian slip maybe?
Not sure. He may be too Jung for that.
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Father said,if you have enemies, good, it means you have stood or stand for something important in your life.

Fresca?
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Quoting 135. Patrap:



The Amazon emitted 3 billion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere in 2005, causing a net 5 billion ton increase in CO2 to the atmosphere--roughly equivalent to 19% of the total CO2 emissions to the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels that year.




you are really making no sense at all and I don't think any one is even following your commets



why not take a break from the blog be for you end up getting banned



your doing nothing more then wasting blog space with your little commets that have nothing too do with weather
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136. FLwolverine

Freudian slip maybe?
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 We do have some warning of this particular possability.
Astronomers say asteroid might collide with Earth— in 2032


Ukrainian astronomers say an asteroid might collide with Earth in a couple of decades, a Russian news service reported Thursday.


Space & Earth -
Space Exploration
Quoting 130. Sfloridacat5:
Not trying to relating to GW, just a scary scenario. I watched a show the other day and these astronomers were discribing the percented of astroids that go undetected. Based on their information, it is very possible to be hit by an astroid with very little to no warning.

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Quoting 126. joeken3:
why would anyone stick their head in over there??????? you say one thing that isn't on par with their left wing socialist agenda with climate change and you are lambasted to a pulp. i stay away from there. you all stick together like plus monkeys.......
If you stay away, how did you come up with your "analysis" of behavior over there?
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The Amazon emitted 3 billion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere in 2005, causing a net 5 billion ton increase in CO2 to the atmosphere--roughly equivalent to 19% of the total CO2 emissions to the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels that year.
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Quoting 113. hydrus:
I love this blog, and the regulars here are superb..I do not minus unless the comment is in poor taste or blatantly stupid. Francisco is a classic Pacific monster wrapping in huge thunderstorms at a rapid pace. I hope it will miss Japan...Those folks could really use a break from natural disasters.


Looks epic this morning, starting to take on that classic category 5 "perfect cyclone" look. Hopefully it will miss Japan. I was shocked to find how great of an impact Wipha had on Japan, it was rapidly accelerating and looked terrible on satellite.

The amount of rain they had was truly astounding given the speed it was moving. I would thin it must been bumping up against a stalled front combined with orographic lift, because the forward speed just seemed too fast to produce that amount of rainfall normally.
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If anyone is interested, here is the list of the almost 200 scientific organizations worldwide who acknowledge human influenced climate change. Link

Also, if anyone would like a brief history of climate change, the American Institute of Physics has put together a great website to explore. I posted this the other night, but it seems appropriate today as well. Link
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3969
Been a tuff week for the right seems.

I think we can let them vent here fer a spell.
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Not trying to relate to GW, just a scary scenario. I watched a show the other day and these astronomers were discribing the percented of astroids that go undetected. Based on their information, it is very possible to be hit by an astroid with very little to no warning.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9397
Doesn't GW/CC discussions bring out the best in us :).
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Learning takes effort, and lil more than watching Honey Boo-boo sing God Bless America.






TEN SIGNS OF A WARMING WORLD

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Quoting 120. BrownWeather:
then what do you suggest we go nuclear????????


My personal opinion is an immediate weening off of fossil fuels needs to begin. I am not foolish enough to think that we can just drop fossil fuels altogether. I think a processed, managed conversion to carbon neutrality over a reasonable period of time is where we begin. Interestingly enough, Seattle has laid out a plan to be carbon neutral by 2050, it may be the correct course to follow. Link

This means solar, wind, geothermal, and even nuclear (although it is not my favorite option)
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3969
October chill overpowers much of U.S.
Oct .18, 2013 10:52 am ET

Northeast
- A quick moving system and cold front brings a band of rain and showers through northern New England this morning.

- A few lingering showers are possible for parts of Maine through early afternoon.

- Drier and somewhat cooler air moves in behind the front during the day today, but still most areas remain a little above average.

- Highs today will range from the 60s along the coastal plain to the 50s in the mountains.

- After temperatures in the 70s for highs for much of the I-95 corridor Thursday, 60s will be more common today.

- Temps will trend cooler over the weekend and closer to average with colder readings on the way by the middle of next week.

- Another batch of showers for the region late Saturday into early Sunday as a cold front moves through
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Francisco doesn't actually seems that big, I am guessing after an eye wall replacement cycle or two it will be gigantic but right now its about average
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Quoting 117. hydrus:
Tropical cyclones form from large flocks of seabirds that flap there wings at great speed, and have nothing to do with the climate...geez Nea...


I always thought it came from Zeus sneezing when he has a cold, severe exhaling of the nostrils causes the wind to swirl and that kicks up storm clouds because the sea is evil and thus storms come from the sea...

But that's just me.
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Quoting 88. NASCARfanatic:

There are alot of made up handles in the climate change blog though. They plus up each other's posts to push their climate change agenda. It's pretty obvious when some post have 1 or 2 plusses and others have 20. We're not stupid.
A lot? ROFL. There aren't even a lot of commenters over there! I've never seen a post with 20 plusses. But it's nice to know you've been visiting. Maybe you could plus some of those poor neglected posts to even things up?
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Any thoughts on the wave around 9N, 53W?

Has a bit of convection, vorticity improving on 850mb and 700mb, and shear is very low. Will it run straight into South America?
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Quoting 115. Patrap:
Enlighten us wit your wisdom, o auricle of Truth.

13 huh?

LOL
but I thought the chart was the auricle...sniffle..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22728
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Quoting 110. Neapolitan:
Yes, the bat signal apparently went out that the good doctor write of climate change, for the forum is overrun once again by a large batch of well-known (and not-so-well-known denialists and sockpuppets who've crawled from the woodwork en masse to deny the scientific truth. It's not the first time it's happened, and it won't be the last. Unfortunately...
Tropical cyclones form from large flocks of seabirds that flap there wings at great speed, and have nothing to do with the climate...geez Nea...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22728
Enlighten us wit your wisdom, o auricle of Truth.

13 huh?

LOL
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Quoting 92. Naga5000:


That is completely untrue, conspiracy nonsense. We have a very small, but good community of regulars there. There are no multiple handles, just a small group of people who discuss and share information on climate change.
I love this blog, and the regulars here are superb..I do not minus unless the comment is in poor taste or blatantly stupid. Francisco is a classic Pacific monster wrapping in huge thunderstorms at a rapid pace. I hope it will miss Japan...Those folks could really use a break from natural disasters.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22728
Good morning everyone

It's an 86 feeling like 96, clear sky, barely a breeze kind of day around here.

Hope everyone is well. I've had major computer issues these last couple of weeks and am ready to throw all out the window!

Lindy
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Quoting 107. Patrap:


Believers?

Science is above the social din, and it cares not what you or anyone "believes."




You are correct; which is why science (meteorology) is a such wonderful thing and why I am a regular on this Blog to take a break from the "social din" out there and all around us these days................ :)
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Quoting 99. Pipejazz:
Neapolitan- comment 65 must have been a good one, it was quickly minus-ed from view. If you have a copy please send it to me via WU mail. I appreciate your comments.
Yes, the bat signal apparently went out that the good doctor wrote of climate change, for the forum is overrun once again by a large batch of well-known (and not-so-well-known) denialists and sockpuppets who've crawled from the woodwork en masse to deny the scientific truth. It's not the first time it's happened, and it won't be the last. Unfortunately...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13805
Quoting 69. rickdove:
So what was the tipping point that caused global warming and cooling before man discovered the engine? was it asteroids, volcanoes, earthquakes???

In order or asking:

Occasionally.

Yes.

No.

The largest player is very slight changes in Earth's orbit and/or inclination. Plate tectonics, too, play a role.

However, those mechanisms have been ruled out as the causes of the current warming. Human activity is the primary cause of the current warming. CO2 increase through the burning of fossil fuels is the biggest contributor.
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Quoting 98. weathermanwannabe:
52. Neapolitan 9:25 AM EDT on October 18, 2013

So basically you would be good with no comments from otherwise uneducated politicians and other "true believers" who cannot back up their arguments with any science:

Eric Hoffer (July 25, 1902 – May 21, 1983) was an American moral and social philosopher. He was the author of ten books and was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom in February 1983. His first book, The True Believer, published in 1951, was widely recognized as a classic, receiving critical acclaim from both scholars and laymen.

Hoffer argued that fanatical and extremist cultural movements, whether religious or political, arose under predictable circumstances: when large numbers of people come to believe that their individual lives are worthless and ruined, that the modern world is irreparably corrupt, and that hope lies only in joining a larger group that demands radical changes. Hoffer believed that self-esteem and a sense of satisfaction with one's life was of central importance to psychological well-being. He thus focused on what he viewed as the consequences of a lack of self-esteem.


Unfortunately GW/Climate change has also become highly politicized and there are lots of true believers around these days...................


Believers?

Science is above the social din, and it cares not what you or anyone "believes."


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Quoting 91. hydrus:
Yep. About the time they receive there first cold front. which on average, is in the third week of October.


October is traditionally a dry month down here in Ft. Myers. I usually tell people Oct. is the end of the rainy season and it usually works out pretty well.

Average Precipitation for Ft. Myers
Precipitation (inches)
Jan 1.8
Feb 2.2
March 3.1
April 1.1
May 3.9
June 9.5
July 8.3
Aug 9.7
Sept. 7.8

Oct. 2.9
Nov. 1.6
Dec 1.5
Annually 53.4
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9397
WOW!:)
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There is a tipping point to a runaway effect in the long run if we continue down the path were on.

Crossing the 400 ppm line: Concentration of carbon dioxide reaches tipping point
BY ELIZABETH MAY | MAY 28, 2013


We have now crossed a dangerous line in the global build up of greenhouse gases. Greenhouse gas concentrations have moved from the pre-Industrial Revolution level that never exceeded 280 parts per million (ppm) to a new daily average of 400 ppm, reached last week.

Over a period of the last million years, CO2 never exceeded 280 ppm (based on actual readings of atmospheric chemistry from Antarctic ice-core data). The last time greenhouse gases reached 400 ppm was three million years ago. Put simply, humanity has now changed the chemistry of our atmosphere to replicate pre-historic levels -- a time when no humans existed.
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Quoting 94. Greenberg:

There are thousands of scientists who believe that man is only influencing climate on a small scale only, such as the urban heat island affect or deforestation. Those approximately thousand make up a good chuck of that 97%.


Hmm...okay, well here's another paper, different survey showing "Here, we use an extensive dataset of 1,372 climate researchers and their publication and citation data to show that (i) 97–98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field surveyed here support the tenets of ACC outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and (ii) the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers. " Link

There are multiple independent studies confirming the 97% number.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3969
Hey STS , how much rain is Florida suppose to get , and how cold !
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Neapolitan- comment 65 must have been a good one, it was quickly minus-ed from view. If you have a copy please send it to me via WU mail. I appreciate your comments.
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52. Neapolitan 9:25 AM EDT on October 18, 2013

So basically you would be good with no comments from otherwise uneducated politicians and other "true believers" who cannot back up their arguments with any science:

Eric Hoffer (July 25, 1902 – May 21, 1983) was an American moral and social philosopher. He was the author of ten books and was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom in February 1983. His first book, The True Believer, published in 1951, was widely recognized as a classic, receiving critical acclaim from both scholars and laymen.

Hoffer argued that fanatical and extremist cultural movements, whether religious or political, arose under predictable circumstances: when large numbers of people come to believe that their individual lives are worthless and ruined, that the modern world is irreparably corrupt, and that hope lies only in joining a larger group that demands radical changes. Hoffer believed that self-esteem and a sense of satisfaction with one's life was of central importance to psychological well-being. He thus focused on what he viewed as the consequences of a lack of self-esteem.


Unfortunately GW/Climate change has also become highly politicized and there are lots of true believers around these days...................
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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