Intriguing Tipping Points TV Series Begins Airing Saturday at 9pm EDT

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 PM GMT on October 18, 2013

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How does one tell the most important story of our time--the emergence of our great Climate Disruption--without boring one's audience to tears, but at the same time, not resorting to over-hyped spinning of the science? “Tipping Points”, a landmark 6-part TV series that begins airing at 9 pm EDT Saturday, October 19 on The Weather Channel, aims to do just that. "Tipping Points" follows a group of preeminent scientists as they venture off the grid to explore the perilous tipping points making our weather systems more extreme and unpredictable.

The phenomena of “tipping points” follows the concept that, at a particular moment in time, a small change can have a large, long-term consequence on a fragile climate system already in a state of flux. Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. Further, when the situation is pushed past the “tipping point,” it will potentially lead to a chain reaction, putting other ecosystems around the globe in peril. “Tipping Points” will feature several of the most critical examples, including the collapse of the Greenland ice sheet, total melting of the Himalayan icecap glaciers, die-back of the Amazon rainforest, shutdown of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation, and the rapid melt of the permafrost in Siberia. "Tipping Points" will not only show how climate changes affect local communities in exotic and distant locales like the Amazon or Siberia, but how it impacts and is relevant to people from Australia and Asia to Europe, South America to Canada and every community in between. The series explores what is happening at the most dramatic tipping points and looks to find answers to understand what can be done to stem the tide of change before we do irreparable damage, and ultimately put our own lives at risk.



The series is hosted by polar explorer and climate journalist Bernice Notenboom, the first woman to climb Mt. Everest and walk to the North and South Poles. She is joined by a number of leading international environmental scientists in each episode, such as Dr. Jason Box, Dr. Matthew England, Professor Peter Cox, and more. In each episode, Notenboom heads off to a far corner of the world to find scientists in the field undertaking vital climate research to try to understand how the climate system is changing and how long we have to make significant changes before we reach a tipping point--a point of no return when our climate system will be changed irreversibly.



The first episode at 9 pm EDT/8 pm CDT this Saturday will be "Amazon Rainforest Risks". "Tipping Points" host Bernice Notenboom will join Peter Cox, Professor of Climate System Dynamics at the University of Exeter, on an expedition across the vast Amazon Rainforest to explore the mega droughts and tree deaths occurring that threaten the forest's survival this century. The Amazon stores CO2 in its soils and biomass equivalent to about fifteen years of human-caused emissions, so a massive die-back of the forest could greatly accelerate global warming. Photosynthesis in the world's largest rainforest keeps the Earth cooler by taking about 2 billion tons of carbon dioxide out of the air each year. However, exceptional droughts in both 2005 and 2010 reversed this process. The Amazon emitted 3 billion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere in 2005, causing a net 5 billion ton increase in CO2 to the atmosphere--roughly equivalent to 19% of the total CO2 emissions to the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels that year. A 2013 NASA-led study found that an area of the Amazon rainforest twice the size of California continues to suffer from the effects of the 2005 mega drought. A 2008 paper by Professor Cox warned that their climate model predicted a rapidly increasing risk of 2005-like droughts from 1-in-20 years in the present climate to 1-in-2 years by 2025, if we continue emitting CO2 at our current "business-as-usual" pace. A 2013 study by Fu et al. found that the dry season length has grown by about seven days per decade in the southern part of the rainforest. If this trend continues in coming decades at half of that rate, the fire season that contributed to the 2005 drought would become the new norm by the late 21st century. The leader of the study, Rong Fu, explained: "The dry season over the southern Amazon is already a marginal for maintaining rainforest. At some point, if it becomes too long, the rainforest will reach a tipping point."



Typhoon Francisco headed towards Japan
Category 4 Typhoon Francisco continues to intensify over the warm waters of the Western Pacific about 200 miles west of Guam. Even though the eye of Francisco passed more than 150 miles west of Guam Friday morning, the huge storm brought sustained winds of 37 mph, gusting to 46 mph, to the island, along with 6.75" of rain. Satellite loops show that Francisco is well-organized with an impressive area of heavy thunderstorms and a prominent eye. With warm waters that extend to great depth and low wind shear, continued strengthening is likely, and Francisco is forecast to become a super typhoon with 150 mph winds by Saturday as it heads northwest towards Japan. The European model now shows that Francisco will miss Japan, but the GFS model predicts that Francisco will hit Japan on Thursday next week. There is very high uncertainty in the storm's track that far into the future, since the timing of Francisco's turn the northeast is difficult to predict.

The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 162. luvtogolf:
The world has warmed 0.05 degrees Celsius (0.09 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade over the past 15 years, a fraction of the 0.2ºC (0.36ºF) per decade rate confidently predicted by the U.N. six years ago.

Surely both the 0.2ºC and the 0.05ºC are the center of ranges. Do the ranges overlap?
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Typhoon 26W FRANSISCO

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 OCT 2013 Time : 140000 UTC
Lat : 15:33:17 N Lon : 141:32:30 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 934.5mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.7 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : +17.3C Cloud Region Temp : -76.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 128km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 18.7 degrees


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127642
Quoting 183. PlazaRed:

On the pluses front I think but cant quite remember exactly.
Neapolitan had over a hundred pluses over a year back when he outlined a new system of naming storms down to dust devils if I remember rightly.
If I am wrong about the subject it was something else he wrote about a year ago.
He will remember anyway.
Yeah, it was 125 pluses, but it was for an off-topic comment. Go figure... ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13467
The five hottest summers (1936, 1934, 1954, 1980 and 1930) all occurred with CO2 below 350 PPM. Four of these summers were before the number one cause of global warming: SUVs and fossil fuel-burning vehicles.
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Quoting 183. PlazaRed:

On the pluses front I think but cant quite remember exactly.
Neapolitan had over a hundred pluses over a year back when he outlined a new system of naming storms down to dust devils if I remember rightly.
If I am wrong about the subject it was something else he wrote about a year ago.
He will remember anyway.
Ah, yes, but that was here, IIRC, not on Dr Rood's blog - which was the accusation. But the poster who raised that is apparently off trolling - I mean - commenting somewhere else now.
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Quoting 86. rickdove:


Thanks Greenberg. Insightful information.


Insightful, but 100% wrong.
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Quoting 160. luvtogolf:
The number of all-time record daily maximum temperatures set or tied* per year has dropped almost in half since the 1930s, for all stations which have been continuously active during the period.






Well the records ARE getting harder the break over time...

It's simple math....finding out whether they are being broken on the warm side at a faster rate than normal is more involved of an analysis than looking at that graph.
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Sure looks like a category 5 to me.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4903
Fransisco will make it to our next cat 5 imo.
It has such a great structure, better then it was last night where it's northern side was rather weak then it's south, left and right side. It's making enormous improvements, and it's -one- of the best looking storms this year. Even though it's not forecasted to become cat 5, I believe it has a great possibility.
Anyways, very off topic, but I'm listening to this right now.

Anybody who listens to this will be blown away. Rock fan or not. :)
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Quoting 186. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Typhoon Francisco has likely become a Category 5 equivalent.

Would really like to see this in VIS.

Most recent JTWC advisory put it at 125 knots however.
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 772
@171

I will not quote your post, that argument technique is call "gish gallop" - "The Gish Gallop, named after Duane Gish, is the debating technique of drowning the opponent in such a torrent of half-truths, lies, and straw-man arguments that the opponent cannot possibly answer every falsehood in real time. The term was coined by Eugenie Scott of the National Center for Science Education. Sam Harris describes the technique as "starting 10 fires in 10 minutes."

The formal debating term for this is spreading. It arose as a way to throw as much rubbish into five minutes as possible. In response, some debate judges now limit number of arguments as well as time. "
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Quoting 160. luvtogolf:
The number of all-time record daily maximum temperatures set or tied* per year has dropped almost in half since the 1930s, for all stations which have been continuously active during the period.




A reminder: The US is *not* the Earth, just a small portion of Earth. You could look it up.
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Typhoon Francisco has likely become a Category 5 equivalent.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31541
Luvtogolf, do you need some help figuring out how to insert a link? Or is all that stuff you're saying just your own opinion? Although you probably didn't make up the Feynman statement - where did you find that?
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Quoting 150. luvtogolf:
There is no warming, and there hasn't been for 15 years.

Evidence? I ask because all the temperature data sets show warming.
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Quoting 122. FLwolverine:
A lot? ROFL. There aren't even a lot of commenters over there! I've never seen a post with 20 plusses. But it's nice to know you've been visiting. Maybe you could plus some of those poor neglected posts to even things up?

On the pluses front I think but cant quite remember exactly.
Neapolitan had over a hundred pluses over a year back when he outlined a new system of naming storms down to dust devils if I remember rightly.
If I am wrong about the subject it was something else he wrote about a year ago.
He will remember anyway.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The warming we have had the last 100 years is so small that, if we didn't have meteorologists and climatologists to measure it, we wouldn't have noticed it at all.
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Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 772
Quoting 169. Tazmanian:


whats take the GW talk too RickyRood blog where it be longs


Link
Sorry, Taz. Dr M opened the door this morning and the anti-AGW people flooded in. Hardly left any room for someone who had a legitimate question.
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Quoting 164. sdswwwe:
I really wish Dr. Masters would have a separate blogs for tropical weather and global warming. This blog is just getting ridiculous...
Well, the blog is fine. But the forum attached to it does suffer at times from a lot of ignorance and outright lying. But then again, that's what the flag button is for, amiright?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13467
Quoting 173. Patrap:
Its Friday, I'm in Love


love that song
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Quoting 147. luvtogolf:
The five hottest summers (1936, 1934, 1954, 1980 and 1930) all occurred with CO2 below 350 PPM. Four of these summers were before the number one cause of global warming: SUVs and fossil fuel-burning vehicles.

Fun fact: The US is a small fraction of the globe. Coulda knocked me over with a feather when I found out.
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Guess I will stick to Florida weather........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37046
Quoting 164. sdswwwe:
I really wish Dr. Masters would have a separate blogs for tropical weather and global warming. This blog is just getting ridiculous...
Have some popcorn and watch the nonsense. Or just come back when Dr M posts a new blog.
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174. SLU
Quoting 76. washingtonian115:
Well I noticed that seasons that end with a "5" bring something interesting to the table.A matter of fact I'm thinking about doing a blog on it.Perhaps in 2 years I'll see if my theory is true.


2005 was the mother of all 5-ending years.
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Its Friday, I'm in Love
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127642
wow whats going On in here today?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37046
Quoting 162. luvtogolf:
The world has warmed 0.05 degrees Celsius (0.09 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade over the past 15 years, a fraction of the 0.2ºC (0.36ºF) per decade rate confidently predicted by the U.N. six years ago.
Excuse me, didn't you just say there had been no warming?

Pat, pass the Fresca please.
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Quoting 164. sdswwwe:
I really wish Dr. Masters would have a separate blogs for tropical weather and global warming. This blog is just getting ridiculous...


whats take the GW talk too RickyRood blog where it be longs


Link
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The phenomena of “tipping points” follows the concept that, at a particular moment in time, a small change can have a large, long-term consequence on a fragile climate system already in a state of flux. Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. Further, when the situation is pushed past the “tipping point,” it will potentially lead to a chain reaction, putting other ecosystems around the globe in peril. “Tipping Points” will feature several of the most critical examples, including the collapse of the Greenland ice sheet, total melting of the Himalayan icecap glaciers, die-back of the Amazon rainforest, shutdown of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation, and the rapid melt of the permafrost in Siberia. "Tipping Points" will not only show how climate changes affect local communities in exotic and distant locales like the Amazon or Siberia, but how it impacts and is relevant to people from Australia and Asia to Europe, South America to Canada and every community in between. The series explores what is happening at the most dramatic tipping points and looks to find answers to understand what can be done to stem the tide of change before we do irreparable damage, and ultimately put our own lives at risk.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127642
JMA now has Francisco at 100 knot (10-min) winds and a pressure of 925 hPa.
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 772
Nature Climate Change, which revealed that nearly all climate models are dramatically inaccurate.

That report compared 117 climate predictions made in the 1990's to the actual amount of warming. Out of 117 predictions, the study’s author explained that 3 were roughly accurate and 114 overestimated the amount of warming. On average, the predictions forecasted two times more global warming than actually occurred
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I really wish Dr. Masters would have a separate blogs for tropical weather and global warming. This blog is just getting ridiculous...
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Quoting 160. luvtogolf:
The number of all-time record daily maximum temperatures set or tied* per year has dropped almost in half since the 1930s, for all stations which have been continuously active during the period.





Steven Goddard is not a credible source of information and is easily debunked. For example, first, the U.S. is not global, second global warming does not mean record temperatures, it means increase in average temperatures, some records will fall along the way, but it is by no means proof that the planet is not warming. Third, it has been warming faster at night than the day. Link




" Observed trends (days per decade) for 1951 to 2003 in the number of extreme cold and warm days and nights per year. Cold is defined as the bottom 10%. Warm is defined as the top 10%. Orange lines show decadal trend (IPCC AR4 FAQ 3.3 adapted from Alexander 2006)."
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The world has warmed 0.05 degrees Celsius (0.09 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade over the past 15 years, a fraction of the 0.2ºC (0.36ºF) per decade rate confidently predicted by the U.N. six years ago.
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http://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/sc reenhunter_496-aug-28-12-05.jpg

A Steve Goddard graph?

Mystery Man of the Denier sphere.

DO go on.

LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127642
The number of all-time record daily maximum temperatures set or tied* per year has dropped almost in half since the 1930s, for all stations which have been continuously active during the period.



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Quoting 155. SheetUnion222Man:
Warming ceased in 1998. Of course it could pick up again in 2014 and then it's like "OMG we are warming again. Oh No!!!"


Well, simply, that is untrue. Link

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Quoting 116. GerlindeEspinosa:

You know, I am so sick of the denialists and level of immaturity around here too. I equate denialists with junkies...they destroy the society. I wouldn't go as far as to suggest they are like terrorists like some suggested in Michelle (sensitivethug's blog). I believe you said that right? Maybe a little harsh, but I understand your frustration.

And you know, those saying that hurricane Sandy had nothing to do with climate change are fooling themselves. Climate changed caused her, along with Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. How can we ignore this when it's happening right before our eyes???


You cannot prove Climate Change caused Sandy, it could have, but Sandy could just as easily happened due to weather patterns regardless of human added CO2. Although you could contend that seeing them more often is a good possibility due to the changing climate and future warming.

However, saying things like that is more likely to push people to become entirely callused to the concept of AGW, I'm not making an excuse for them, but it doesn't help. In fact, it was the politicizing of AGW that originally caused me to doubt its existence when I was in high school. I assumed it was politically invented because of it being politicized.

However, it wasn't until the last couple years after actually doing my own research that I realized the evidence for it is indeed scientifically overwhelming.
Given this, lets stick to balanced science, what we do know, and not add to it in attempt to get the public's attention which causes backfiring.


Also, it has been politicized by both extreme ends of the political spectrum, so I'm not pointing fingers.
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Seems the Farce is strong in some today.

And the irony is, they do it on the Globes best communicator of Climate Change.


Now, if they had some tact and fortitude, they would be posting their own Blogs on wunderground to share with the Globe, there insightful observations of whats driving the warming observed.



Well, we wont wait for that will we now?

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127642
Quoting 151. Gearsts:
Guys save the last frame!


Definately a beauty. I'd like to fly into that beast in a hurricane hunter plane. I'd love to see the eye structure from the inside.
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Quoting 147. luvtogolf:
The five hottest summers (1936, 1934, 1954, 1980 and 1930) all occurred with CO2 below 350 PPM. Four of these summers were before the number one cause of global warming: SUVs and fossil fuel-burning vehicles.


Nice Steven Goddard quote from Rush Limbaugh not even cited. Anyways, that information is regional, not global, and does not disprove any aspect of AGW. Interesting to note " Globally, the ten hottest years on record have all occurred since 1998, with 2005 and 2010 as the hottest."Link
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Guys save the last frame!
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There is no warming, and there hasn't been for 15 years.
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On a related science note, I was fascinated last evening by a news story about an ancient human anthropological fossil find where they have apparently recovered several ancient skulls, in the same place/same age, with some cranial differences suggesting a "morphing" of our traditional notions of the different species of man living in different periods of time (the evolution theory from the Leaky work (homo-erectus) through cro-magnum, etc.

Might change a lot of things in that field. Similar to the issue of using ice cores, tree rings, exposed earth layers, etc. to help reconstruct past earth climates/changes and apply it to what we are currently seeing weather-wise in our more modern age.

Many of the answers that we are looking for, and clues, in so many fields are already here on Earth waiting to be discovered and digested and applied to modern day record; that little global warming anomaly chart with all the red dots comes to mind........
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Quoting 142. Tazmanian:




you are really making no sense at all and I don't think any one is even following your commets



why not take a break from the blog be for you end up getting banned



your doing nothing more then wasting blog space with your little commets that have nothing too with weather


Well sport, maybe try reading Dr. Masters entry, the quote came from there .


I'll ride my own razor down the slope Taz, as I'm purty thick skinned,

The Amazon emitted 3 billion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere in 2005, causing a net 5 billion ton increase in CO2 to the atmosphere--roughly equivalent to 19% of the total CO2 emissions to the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels that year.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127642

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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