Intriguing Tipping Points TV Series Begins Airing Saturday at 9pm EDT

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 PM GMT on October 18, 2013

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How does one tell the most important story of our time--the emergence of our great Climate Disruption--without boring one's audience to tears, but at the same time, not resorting to over-hyped spinning of the science? “Tipping Points”, a landmark 6-part TV series that begins airing at 9 pm EDT Saturday, October 19 on The Weather Channel, aims to do just that. "Tipping Points" follows a group of preeminent scientists as they venture off the grid to explore the perilous tipping points making our weather systems more extreme and unpredictable.

The phenomena of “tipping points” follows the concept that, at a particular moment in time, a small change can have a large, long-term consequence on a fragile climate system already in a state of flux. Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. Further, when the situation is pushed past the “tipping point,” it will potentially lead to a chain reaction, putting other ecosystems around the globe in peril. “Tipping Points” will feature several of the most critical examples, including the collapse of the Greenland ice sheet, total melting of the Himalayan icecap glaciers, die-back of the Amazon rainforest, shutdown of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation, and the rapid melt of the permafrost in Siberia. "Tipping Points" will not only show how climate changes affect local communities in exotic and distant locales like the Amazon or Siberia, but how it impacts and is relevant to people from Australia and Asia to Europe, South America to Canada and every community in between. The series explores what is happening at the most dramatic tipping points and looks to find answers to understand what can be done to stem the tide of change before we do irreparable damage, and ultimately put our own lives at risk.



The series is hosted by polar explorer and climate journalist Bernice Notenboom, the first woman to climb Mt. Everest and walk to the North and South Poles. She is joined by a number of leading international environmental scientists in each episode, such as Dr. Jason Box, Dr. Matthew England, Professor Peter Cox, and more. In each episode, Notenboom heads off to a far corner of the world to find scientists in the field undertaking vital climate research to try to understand how the climate system is changing and how long we have to make significant changes before we reach a tipping point--a point of no return when our climate system will be changed irreversibly.



The first episode at 9 pm EDT/8 pm CDT this Saturday will be "Amazon Rainforest Risks". "Tipping Points" host Bernice Notenboom will join Peter Cox, Professor of Climate System Dynamics at the University of Exeter, on an expedition across the vast Amazon Rainforest to explore the mega droughts and tree deaths occurring that threaten the forest's survival this century. The Amazon stores CO2 in its soils and biomass equivalent to about fifteen years of human-caused emissions, so a massive die-back of the forest could greatly accelerate global warming. Photosynthesis in the world's largest rainforest keeps the Earth cooler by taking about 2 billion tons of carbon dioxide out of the air each year. However, exceptional droughts in both 2005 and 2010 reversed this process. The Amazon emitted 3 billion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere in 2005, causing a net 5 billion ton increase in CO2 to the atmosphere--roughly equivalent to 19% of the total CO2 emissions to the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels that year. A 2013 NASA-led study found that an area of the Amazon rainforest twice the size of California continues to suffer from the effects of the 2005 mega drought. A 2008 paper by Professor Cox warned that their climate model predicted a rapidly increasing risk of 2005-like droughts from 1-in-20 years in the present climate to 1-in-2 years by 2025, if we continue emitting CO2 at our current "business-as-usual" pace. A 2013 study by Fu et al. found that the dry season length has grown by about seven days per decade in the southern part of the rainforest. If this trend continues in coming decades at half of that rate, the fire season that contributed to the 2005 drought would become the new norm by the late 21st century. The leader of the study, Rong Fu, explained: "The dry season over the southern Amazon is already a marginal for maintaining rainforest. At some point, if it becomes too long, the rainforest will reach a tipping point."



Typhoon Francisco headed towards Japan
Category 4 Typhoon Francisco continues to intensify over the warm waters of the Western Pacific about 200 miles west of Guam. Even though the eye of Francisco passed more than 150 miles west of Guam Friday morning, the huge storm brought sustained winds of 37 mph, gusting to 46 mph, to the island, along with 6.75" of rain. Satellite loops show that Francisco is well-organized with an impressive area of heavy thunderstorms and a prominent eye. With warm waters that extend to great depth and low wind shear, continued strengthening is likely, and Francisco is forecast to become a super typhoon with 150 mph winds by Saturday as it heads northwest towards Japan. The European model now shows that Francisco will miss Japan, but the GFS model predicts that Francisco will hit Japan on Thursday next week. There is very high uncertainty in the storm's track that far into the future, since the timing of Francisco's turn the northeast is difficult to predict.

The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days.

Jeff Masters

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298. yoboi
Quoting 295. Birthmark:

You can if you like.



I will give it a try....do ya have a link???
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Quoting 294. help4u:
Least extreme weather year in recorded history! !! Wow!!! So much for gw!! Like obomacare!!

Evidence? Or was this something you dreamed?
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Quoting 285. weathermanwannabe:


Thanks for that clip; most of the buildings in those clips are still there (the Art Deco District) in South Beach..........Thought I recognized the Clevelander :)
You are correct. Most of the hotels you see in this clip are still standing. Cars back then were very heavy so the winds in King had to be very high in order for a lot of them to have been flipped over like you see in some of the photos. It's also interesting to note that Hurricane King still stands as the last Major Hurricane to make a direct hit on the cities of Miami and MiamiBeach to this day. (For those who think otherwise, Andrew made a direct hit on the city of Homestead and not Miami).
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Quoting 284. yoboi:


Can you repost and change the blue colors??? TIA

You can if you like.
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Quoting 291. bappit:
Wow, Francisco! Look how big it is!





TXPQ29 KNES 181516
TCSWNP

A. 26W (FRANCISCO)

B. 18/1432Z

C. 15.6N

D. 141.4E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.0/7.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/TMI/SSMIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...NEVER HAVE SEEN AN EYE SO WARM (17C - WMG) AND YET SO
SYMMETRIC IN NEARLY ALL COLOR RINGS FROM WHITE TO WMG ALONG EYEWALL. EYE
IS WELL EMBEDDED IN WHITE FOR A EYE NO. OF 6.0. CMG RING DOES NOT FULLY
SURROUND BUT WHITE RING WITH WMG EYE STILL YIELDS EYE ADJ. OF PLUS 1.0
FOR A DT OF 7.0. NOW A WEAK BAND DOES WRAP 1/4 AROUND THE STORM FOR A
BANDING FEATURE TO BE ADDED IF THE MET WAS HIGHER...AND THOUGH THE MET
COULD BE JUSTIFIED 7.5 FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO
(COOL EYE AND NOT SYMMETRIC). FELT THAT USING DR TREND JUST TO ADD BAND
FEATURE FOR DT WAS UNREALISTIC AND SO MET IS 7.0. PT IS 7.0 FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

18/1001Z 15.0N 142.0E TMI
18/1002Z 15.1N 141.9E SSMIS
18/1137Z 15.2N 141.9E AMSU


...GALLINA
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Quoting 248. bappit:
From Dr. M's blog: "How does one tell the most important story of our time--the emergence of our great Climate Disruption--without boring one's audience to tears, but at the same time, not resorting to over-hyped spinning of the science?"

It troubles me that each of the so-called tipping points in Dr. Masters' blog are dramatic changes in the environment that would be immediately obvious to anyone on the planet. I think this show "Tipping Points" in fact is bad science because it thereby implies that tipping points are always highly visible dramatic changes.

We should not even be focusing on the concept of tipping points in the first place. Slow, gradual change can lead to dramatic outcomes over time. CO2 has a long residence time in the atmosphere in terms of the human life span. What happens now will have an effect lasting for generations.
I think that "dramatic changes in the environment that would be immediately obvious to anyone" is the definition of "tipping point". Example: the warming of the oceans is not itself a tipping point, but if it warms so much that methane caltrates (I think that's the right term) are released from the ocean floor, that release is a tipping point because the methane will multiply the effects of global warming and nothing can be done (at that point) to stop it. Melting of the Greenland ice sheet is not a tipping point in and of itself, but if the atmosphere is warm enough that the melting can't be stopped (by reducing emissions, etc), then that temperature and ice conditions constitute a tipping point after which significant sea level rise is inevitable.

As to whether we should focus on it, I don't know. Maybe Dr M and the producers think that something so extreme is the only way to get the public's attention. Given all the weather disaster prediction shows, I'm not sure this approach works. A lot of people will probably brush this off as another scifi horror story.
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Wow, Francisco! Look how big it is!
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Quoting 268. txjac:


I think that he/she posted that as an example of how people get misinformed. I go to the Daily Mail as well, they get some stories out there (believable ones) more quickly then other sites. They also have some awesome photos that I like to look at.

Many people stop with the reading after visiting a site like the Daily Mail ...for me its just the beginning ..some "fluff" to start out with

I get started with The Onion. After that, I'm prepared for anything.
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242) Seemed a Cool Brees prefers a cool Chicago to cold one, congrats! Speaking of which, will be a much cooler NLCS than any previous this fall, low 50s at gametime with ever increasing chance of precipitation arriving from west. Won't get to see it, but hopefully an A&M grad can incite a Full Moon (& WS) Fever in StL tonight.

Currently in S C IL, 55 w/ 47 dew pt, SW to W winds 6-14mph, 29.94". They've changed HX to Wind Chill, guess it is fall now!
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Typhoon 26W FRANSISCO

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 OCT 2013 Time : 160000 UTC
Lat : 15:50:44 N Lon : 141:15:02 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 931.9mb/129.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 6.7 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : +17.8C Cloud Region Temp : -76.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 128km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 19.1 degrees



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
G'afternoon from Central OK,

The unanticipated and unavoidable rebuild of the computer is done, tested, and apparently stable enough to believe that it'll reliably function.

Here its a bit chilly, grey skies, and a few sprinkles at the moment. A good bit the past week was beneficial, except for those few areas that really need it. The SW portion of OK missed out, and a state of emergency has been declared by the guv.

AN interesting program on TWC. I can only hope it does as the Doc says, and does not devolve into the pattern observed on other TWC "programs".

Regardless I hope all of the AGW's - on both sides - take a peek, we may all learn something.

Have fun, enjoy fall. I still have things to take care of before the comp is 100% - so I'll be around but more out than in.

Cheers. :)

PS - to the NoLA folks here, what the heck happened against the NEPs? Worst 2.5 mins of football I've seen in a while. On a positive note, little one learned what "managing the clock" means. Maybe if we used that analogy for CC/AGW more people would tune in . .
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Quoting 281. Patrap:
Adio'


Have a good weekend.

Wear a sweater!


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Quoting 283. HurriHistory:

Today is the 63 year anniversary of Major Cat.-3 Hurricane King making a direct hit on the city of Miami Beach with wind gusts of 150-MPH. 1950 was a whopper of a year for Hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin. Ah, the good old days are gone forever.


Thanks for that clip; most of the buildings in those clips are still there (the Art Deco District) in South Beach..........Thought I recognized the Clevelander :)
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284. yoboi
Quoting 282. Birthmark:

I don't think so.



Can you repost and change the blue colors??? TIA
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Today is the 63 year anniversary of Major Cat.-3 Hurricane King making a direct hit on the city of Miami Beach with wind gusts of 150-MPH. 1950 was a whopper of a year for Hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin. Ah, the good old days are gone forever.
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Quoting 274. LargoFl:
Scientists have seen a NATURAL 30 year cycle in warmth then cooling periods..since the 1400's...........here is but one "in our lifetimes" graph..........

I don't think so.

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Adio'


Have a good weekend.

Wear a sweater!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
well regardless of your views...a very interesting time weather wise is coming within the next 30 years or so..some of you younger ones will be around to witness what happens..I wont be..I just hope your AGW happens..the effects of that..would be so much LESS than if the global cooling happens and IF that predicted global cooling prompts the next ice age..we can kiss the world as we know it today..goodbye...and with that..i take my leave...
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279. yoboi
Quoting 276. Patrap:
Really?

Dat un....

I'll defer to someone else maybe.


I have to make a Seafood Friday NOLA Lunch decision and the pressure would be jus to much for my BHG.

Good colors though, and a predictive twist as well.



How was dat New England clam chowder????
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Quoting 239. LargoFl:
now THIS is the strong Cold front coming down next wens etc..just LOOK at all the 20's and 30's..wow its still Oct.


Yes, that map depicts 20's and 30's but keep in mind it's valid for 12Z, which is 8AM ET. (ie, about the coldest part of the day)
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800,000 Year Record of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Concentrations


Carbon dioxide concentration (parts per million) for the last 800,000 years, measured from trapped bubbles of air in an Antarctic ice core. The 2008 observed value is from the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii and projections are based upon future emission scenarios. More information on the data can be found in the Climate Change Impacts on the U.S. report.

Over the last 800,000 years, natural factors have caused the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to vary within a range of about 170 to 300 parts per million (ppm). The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by roughly 35 percent since the start of the industrial revolution. Globally, over the past several decades, about 80 percent of human-induced CO2 emissions came from the burning of fossil fuels, while about 20 percent resulted from deforestation and associated agricultural practices.

In the absence of strong control measures, emissions projected for this century would result in the CO2 concentration increasing to a level that is roughly 2 to 3 times the highest level occurring over the glacial-interglacial era that spans the last 800,000 or more years.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
Really?

Dat un....

I'll defer to someone else maybe.


I have to make a Seafood Friday NOLA Lunch decision and the pressure would be jus to much for my BHG.

Good colors though, and a predictive twist as well.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
They deserve for it to be commented on! But it is a little funny, it shows that we are ALL as vunerable as our climate ( just trying to stay on topic here!)

Quoting 264. Birthmark:

See: Your ironic last sentence.

Usually, I don't comment on such things, but the irony here is too good to pass up. Sorry. :)
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Scientists have seen a NATURAL 30 year cycle in warmth then cooling periods..since the 1400's...........here is but one "in our lifetimes" graph..........
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www.ncdc.noaa.gov/indicators

Simulated global temperature in experiments that include human influences (pink line), and model experiments that included only natural factors (blue line). The black line is observed temperature change.


Global climate models clearly show the effect of human-induced changes on global temperatures. The blue band shows how global temperatures would have changed due to natural forces only (without human influence). The pink band shows model projections of the effects of human and natural forces combined.



The black line shows actual observed global average temperatures. The close match between the black line and the pink band indicates that observed warming over the last half-century cannot be explained by natural factors alone, and is instead caused primarily by human factors.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
Quoting 269. Sfloridacat5:


I've talked to people who played ice hockey on local lakes/ponds in their area as kids, but report the ice rarely gets thick enough to support ice skating anymore where they live.
But as you mentioned, not much of a trend and its just one location on the globe.



Those unusual jet stream kinks, which some are suggesting is a recent phenomenon, can skew the overall perceptions in a limited geographical area; hence the brutal cold snap in the Midwest last Winter and the previous heat wave in the same region. That lends some support to the theories that extreme weather patterns are a marker for climate/change GW.
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Manta ray breeding fall-off in Maldives mystifies experts - video


Damian Carrington investigates a worrying halt in breeding among the majestic manta rays of Baa atoll in the Maldives. Guy Stevens of the Manta Trust thinks the cause may be changes to their food supply, perhaps linked to climate change. Mantas have very low rates of reproduction – just a single pup every two to three years – meaning they are very vulnerable to anything that cuts the number of births

• Manta rays lacking libido in empty blue seas around the Maldives – read Damian Carrington's story
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
Quoting 267. Birthmark:

Of course! The Sun still does what it has always done.


The thing is though, the sun may be responsible for periods of slightly faster warming, but it is not the cause of the overall trend.
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Quoting 260. weathermanwannabe:
I am not qualified to accurately debate the issue, and a few anomalous years with unusual jet stream kinks (over North America) can impacts lay persons perceptions of what might be happening. However, as a Florida resident for over 50 year I have seen the following:

60's and 70's; even living in South Florida, it got pretty chilly for some stretches in the Fall-Winter into the 30's 40's.

By the 80's and 90's, I was routinely on the water/beach/fishing in December and January with comfortable temps; I remember one year where we had a Christmas Party on the beach.

Living in North Florida for the past 12 years, where we fell the cooler trofs and continental air masses to a greater degree than the rest of Florida, our winters have in fact become "shorter" and our large number of Azalia's around the house have been blooming earlier and earlier every year; they were still blooming in April when we first moved up here and now blooming in March for the last several years.

Whether short-term of longer term, or climate change related, that has been the trend I have seen in my lifetime as a Florida resident; can't speak for other parts of the Country.


I've talked to people who played ice hockey on local lakes/ponds in their area as kids, but report the ice rarely gets thick enough to support ice skating anymore where they live.
But as you mentioned, not much of a trend and its just one location on the globe.
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268. txjac
Quoting 262. Patrap:
#259


Maybe try a nsidc.org link as again, The Daily Mail is not a science link, site nor data.


I think that he/she posted that as an example of how people get misinformed. I go to the Daily Mail as well, they get some stories out there (believable ones) more quickly then other sites. They also have some awesome photos that I like to look at.

Many people stop with the reading after visiting a site like the Daily Mail ...for me its just the beginning ..some "fluff" to start out with
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Quoting 265. FunnelVortex:


But I do see a correlation between higher solar periods and periods of slightly more accelerated warming.

Of course! The Sun still does what it has always done.
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Quoting 259. LargoFl:
well taken from the UK daily Mail.............

Ah, remember the last time the Arctic "recovered?" I do. Similar claims were made in 2008 and 2009. How'd that work out? lol
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Quoting 249. Patrap:
# 245

A er, LOL, graph from Anthony is not er, valid here, nor there, nor anywhere, friendo

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/0 4/archibald_1749_2049_projected_solar_cycle.png

Energy from the Sun Has Not Increased

The amount of solar energy received at the top of our atmosphere has followed its natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs, but with no net increase. Over the same period, global temperature has risen markedly. This indicates that it is extremely unlikely that solar influence has been a significant driver of global temperature change over several decades.



Global surface temperature (top, blue) and the Sun's energy received at the top of Earth's atmosphere (red, bottom). Solar energy has been measured by satellites since 1978.


But I do see a correlation between higher solar periods and periods of slightly more accelerated warming.
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Quoting 258. CaneFreeCR:
One of the conclusions one could draw from the comments here is that there has been a massive failure of the education system -- few posts without mis-used, mis-spelled, or mis-understood wording, failure of logic and reasoning, etc. It's a shame that such evidence is so prevalent as it both reflects badly on the education system and seriously damages the dialogue. Weather and climate are difficult to understand for people with a well-rounded education, and much harder for those who have suffered the failure of education for life. Unfortunatelky, the Earth doesn't care -- it will run roughshod over us regardless.

See: Your ironic last sentence.

Usually, I don't comment on such things, but the irony here is too good to pass up. Sorry. :)
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Quoting 259. LargoFl:
well taken from the UK daily Mail.............


The ice may be more widespread, but notice that it is less thick.
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#259


Maybe try a nsidc.org link as again, The Daily Mail is not a science link, site nor data.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
261. txjac
Quoting 258. CaneFreeCR:
One of the conclusions one could draw from the comments here is that there has been a massive failure of the education system -- few posts without mis-used, mis-spelled, or mis-understood wording, failure of logic and reasoning, etc. It's a shame that such evidence is so prevalent as it both reflects badly on the education system and seriously damages the dialogue. Weather and climate are difficult to understand for people with a well-rounded education, and much harder for those who have suffered the failure of education for life. Unfortunatelky, the Earth doesn't care -- it will run roughshod over us regardless.


I agree
Way to go Department of Education
Way to go No Child left behind
Way to go English as a second language (here in Houston over 40% of the dropout rate is Hispanic)

And all those darned standardized tests that students study for year round
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I am not qualified to accurately debate the issue, and a few anomalous years with unusual jet stream kinks (over North America) can impact lay persons perceptions of what might be happening. However, as a Florida resident for over 50 years I have seen the following:

60's and 70's; even living in South Florida, it got pretty chilly for some stretches in the Fall-Winter into the 30's 40's.

By the 80's and 90's, I was routinely on the water/beach/fishing in December and January with comfortable temps; I remember one year where we had a Christmas Party on the beach.

Living in North Florida for the past 12 years, where we feel the cooler trofs and continental air masses to a greater degree than the rest of Florida, our winters have in fact become "shorter" and our large number of Azalia's around the house have been blooming earlier and earlier every year; they were still blooming in April when we first moved up here and now blooming in March for the last several years.

Whether short-term or longer term, or climate change related, that has been the trend I have seen in my lifetime as a Florida resident; can't speak for other parts of the Country.
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well taken from the UK daily Mail.............
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One of the conclusions one could draw from the comments here is that there has been a massive failure of the education system -- few posts without mis-used, mis-spelled, or mis-understood wording, failure of logic and reasoning, etc. It's a shame that such evidence is so prevalent as it both reflects badly on the education system and seriously damages the dialogue. Weather and climate are difficult to understand for people with a well-rounded education, and much harder for those who have suffered the failure of education for life. Unfortunatelky, the Earth doesn't care -- it will run roughshod over us regardless.
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Quoting 241. LargoFl:
A serious Question if I may..lets say Global Cooling begins to rear its head say 10 years from now..How exactly would we know and what effects would we begin seeing?....would winters be longer and colder as the years went by and shorter cooler summers?..or no...we would just see global temps fall overall?....with the current global warming if I may..I dont see hotter summers and warmer winters..matter of fact I hardly notice the warming at all...how about You folks??


Largo, I notice that it's October in Maine and I still have tomatoes growing, and producing flowers, in my garden. It's October 18 for crying out loud. it was near 80 here yesterday, and it's just this side of 70 right now.

We have yet to have a frost here. When I first moved to Maine 33 years ago, reliable first frost date was by September 30. We have gained half a growing region in 33 years here.

33 years ago you would have starved trying to sell air conditioners. Two summers we could have sold 150 in a day if we'd had them where I worked. I know because I took and recorded most of those calls.

You don't notice the changes in a day, a year, or a month. Just because they aren't walking you across the bridge of your nose with a 2x4 doesn't mean they aren't happening.

But they are indeed happening.


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Quoting 232. Naga5000:


I've read this paper and it's interesting that the scientists found a cycle. However, it's a big leap to explaining a slow down in the surface temperature rate of increase. Sea temps have continued to increased at a faster rate and overall, looking at surface, ocean, and deep ocean temps the global warming signal has increased.

Interesting none the less.


William Connolley posted two posts on the Wyatt and Curry paper:

1. Role for Eurasian Arctic shelf sea ice in a secularly varying hemispheric climate signal during the 20th century?

2. Wyatt and Curry part II: not waving but drowning

He is very dismissive of the results and methods...

Where’s the meat?

If you look through the paper to find the core substance, you won’t. There are layers of mush and piles of words but precious little hard matter. Figure 12 is about the closest they come to a mechanism, but its just a pile of words arranged in a picture; there’s no maths here. So really, we’re reduced to figure 2 and similar as being the only vaguely convincing bits.


and...

I think that’s about it, really. All the stuff about exploding sardines is just fluff and can be ignored. The “mechanisms” is an extended exercise in self-delusion.


So all in all, more Curried Tripe.

It should be noted that Dr. Marcia Wyatt, the lead author, is a student of prominent climate cyclist Anastasios Tsonis.
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3653
Adio'
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
I have come to the conclusion that the only way I can banish the few jerks on this site is to leave...This will be my last post. I do not need any of the ego-trippers like my ex husband. This room is sometimes full of them...What an ego trip so many have...Some know whom they are. I really do enjoy what Dr. Masters has to say, but I am sick of some of the other comments. Don't get me wrong. So many intelligent people are here, but so many are as I call them "Silverbacks"....I will be only a lurker when weather deems it necessary. Have a wonderful day all... Melissa
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253. txjac
Quoting 244. hurricanes2018:
new fall pictures!


When taking pictures like that dont you wish you could remove the cars and powerlines? I see some beautiful sunsets where I live, take pictures but then wish there werent cars and poles and stores and stuff.
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Quoting 245. LargoFl:
well perhaps we should look to the sun........

We have. It's not the Sun.
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Quoting 246. gatorman98:
Already bored to tears...


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Quoting 241. LargoFl:
A serious Question if I may..lets say Global Cooling begins to rear its head say 10 years from now..How exactly would we know and what effects would we begin seeing?....would winters be longer and colder as the years went by and shorter cooler summers?..or no...we would just see global temps fall overall?....with the current global warming if I may..I dont see hotter summers and warmer winters..matter of fact I hardly notice the warming at all...how about You folks??

If giant, invisible space monkeys began destroying things, how would we know it was them and not entropy demanding a raise? Huh?
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# 245

A er, LOL, graph from Anthony is not er, valid here, nor there, nor anywhere, friendo

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/0 4/archibald_1749_2049_projected_solar_cycle.png

Energy from the Sun Has Not Increased

The amount of solar energy received at the top of our atmosphere has followed its natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs, but with no net increase. Over the same period, global temperature has risen markedly. This indicates that it is extremely unlikely that solar influence has been a significant driver of global temperature change over several decades.



Global surface temperature (top, blue) and the Sun's energy received at the top of Earth's atmosphere (red, bottom). Solar energy has been measured by satellites since 1978.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
From Dr. M's blog: "How does one tell the most important story of our time--the emergence of our great Climate Disruption--without boring one's audience to tears, but at the same time, not resorting to over-hyped spinning of the science?"

It troubles me that each of the so-called tipping points in Dr. Masters' blog are dramatic changes in the environment that would be immediately obvious to anyone on the planet. I think this show "Tipping Points" in fact is bad science because it thereby implies that tipping points are always highly visible dramatic changes.

We should not even be focusing on the concept of tipping points in the first place. Slow, gradual change can lead to dramatic outcomes over time. CO2 has a long residence time in the atmosphere in terms of the human life span. What happens now will have an effect lasting for generations.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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