Intriguing Tipping Points TV Series Begins Airing Saturday at 9pm EDT

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 PM GMT on October 18, 2013

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How does one tell the most important story of our time--the emergence of our great Climate Disruption--without boring one's audience to tears, but at the same time, not resorting to over-hyped spinning of the science? “Tipping Points”, a landmark 6-part TV series that begins airing at 9 pm EDT Saturday, October 19 on The Weather Channel, aims to do just that. "Tipping Points" follows a group of preeminent scientists as they venture off the grid to explore the perilous tipping points making our weather systems more extreme and unpredictable.

The phenomena of “tipping points” follows the concept that, at a particular moment in time, a small change can have a large, long-term consequence on a fragile climate system already in a state of flux. Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. Further, when the situation is pushed past the “tipping point,” it will potentially lead to a chain reaction, putting other ecosystems around the globe in peril. “Tipping Points” will feature several of the most critical examples, including the collapse of the Greenland ice sheet, total melting of the Himalayan icecap glaciers, die-back of the Amazon rainforest, shutdown of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation, and the rapid melt of the permafrost in Siberia. "Tipping Points" will not only show how climate changes affect local communities in exotic and distant locales like the Amazon or Siberia, but how it impacts and is relevant to people from Australia and Asia to Europe, South America to Canada and every community in between. The series explores what is happening at the most dramatic tipping points and looks to find answers to understand what can be done to stem the tide of change before we do irreparable damage, and ultimately put our own lives at risk.



The series is hosted by polar explorer and climate journalist Bernice Notenboom, the first woman to climb Mt. Everest and walk to the North and South Poles. She is joined by a number of leading international environmental scientists in each episode, such as Dr. Jason Box, Dr. Matthew England, Professor Peter Cox, and more. In each episode, Notenboom heads off to a far corner of the world to find scientists in the field undertaking vital climate research to try to understand how the climate system is changing and how long we have to make significant changes before we reach a tipping point--a point of no return when our climate system will be changed irreversibly.



The first episode at 9 pm EDT/8 pm CDT this Saturday will be "Amazon Rainforest Risks". "Tipping Points" host Bernice Notenboom will join Peter Cox, Professor of Climate System Dynamics at the University of Exeter, on an expedition across the vast Amazon Rainforest to explore the mega droughts and tree deaths occurring that threaten the forest's survival this century. The Amazon stores CO2 in its soils and biomass equivalent to about fifteen years of human-caused emissions, so a massive die-back of the forest could greatly accelerate global warming. Photosynthesis in the world's largest rainforest keeps the Earth cooler by taking about 2 billion tons of carbon dioxide out of the air each year. However, exceptional droughts in both 2005 and 2010 reversed this process. The Amazon emitted 3 billion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere in 2005, causing a net 5 billion ton increase in CO2 to the atmosphere--roughly equivalent to 19% of the total CO2 emissions to the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels that year. A 2013 NASA-led study found that an area of the Amazon rainforest twice the size of California continues to suffer from the effects of the 2005 mega drought. A 2008 paper by Professor Cox warned that their climate model predicted a rapidly increasing risk of 2005-like droughts from 1-in-20 years in the present climate to 1-in-2 years by 2025, if we continue emitting CO2 at our current "business-as-usual" pace. A 2013 study by Fu et al. found that the dry season length has grown by about seven days per decade in the southern part of the rainforest. If this trend continues in coming decades at half of that rate, the fire season that contributed to the 2005 drought would become the new norm by the late 21st century. The leader of the study, Rong Fu, explained: "The dry season over the southern Amazon is already a marginal for maintaining rainforest. At some point, if it becomes too long, the rainforest will reach a tipping point."



Typhoon Francisco headed towards Japan
Category 4 Typhoon Francisco continues to intensify over the warm waters of the Western Pacific about 200 miles west of Guam. Even though the eye of Francisco passed more than 150 miles west of Guam Friday morning, the huge storm brought sustained winds of 37 mph, gusting to 46 mph, to the island, along with 6.75" of rain. Satellite loops show that Francisco is well-organized with an impressive area of heavy thunderstorms and a prominent eye. With warm waters that extend to great depth and low wind shear, continued strengthening is likely, and Francisco is forecast to become a super typhoon with 150 mph winds by Saturday as it heads northwest towards Japan. The European model now shows that Francisco will miss Japan, but the GFS model predicts that Francisco will hit Japan on Thursday next week. There is very high uncertainty in the storm's track that far into the future, since the timing of Francisco's turn the northeast is difficult to predict.

The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 324. ncstorm:


I dont have to believe in conspiracies..I can read and saw the exchange...LOL..

lets keep the flow of internet comments to the topic of GW..thats whats important..the doom of our planet with aid of our computers..
But you don't want to reveal it to anyone else....... Hmmmmm.........
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397. IKE

Quoting GrandCaymanMed:
GFS is consistent in showing disturbed weather and potential tropical activity in the Western Caribbean in the next 8-14 days. I will be watching closely. I remember both Ida 2009 and Paloma 2008 were late season hurricanes, with Ida forming during a very "inactive" 2009 year. No clusters of storms have formed yet, but I expect that the strong cold front that pushes off the US will be the trigger for the late season Caribbean storm I expect to develop.
Don't see it on 12Z GFS.
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396. auburn (Mod)
I as a mod had rather do anything other than ban fellow bloggers,but it is my job and the other mods job to maintain the rules on this blog..I ask you all again to please post respectfully to one another and if you must bicker please do so in the privacy of your blog or a message..again thank you all
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Quoting 389. auburn:


post 227 hasn't gone anywhere at any time..you might check your filter settings..


I never said it did, DocNDswamp did, I jus assumed as per the POD.


I don't use a filter, I'm mo a Pall Mall Red viewer/blogger type Harry Shearer said.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Quoting 393. StormTrackerScott:


LOL! Yeah I know I was put in the naughty corner.


We were put in the naughty corner :)
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Quoting 388. daddyjames:


LOL - hey, I'm agreeing with you. Remember the last time we tried to discuss something? Hope all is well with you. Wish I had some of the warmth that you have down there. Here, damp and chilly.


LOL! Yeah I know I was put in the naughty corner.
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Typhoon 26W FRANSISCO

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 OCT 2013 Time : 173000 UTC
Lat : 15:53:02 N Lon : 141:00:42 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 931.9mb/129.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 6.7 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +16.1C Cloud Region Temp : -76.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 128km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 19.2 degrees

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol. This might be one of the best insults ever.

it was meant to be an informative critique of comparing meteorologists to climate scientists ;)
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Quoting 335. F16NightSpook:
Here's a rather casual local news article about how the seasonal high tides in Miami and Ft. Lauderdale are no longer staying on the beach. As a "new guy" to the blog, I haven't cracked the code on posting a link or photo, but I'm sure one of you old timers can do it. Seems like rising sea levels are for real down here. Obviously, some folks are planning ahead.


http://www.local10.com/news/seminar-held-for-risi ng-sea-levels-tidal-flooding/-/1717324/22486894/-/ ipswjm/-/index.html
For future reference - the problem with the link is the spaces WU sometimes inserts. Risi ng. -/ ipswjm. For example. It does that when you paste into a comment sometimes, but not if you paste into the "link" box.
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389. auburn (Mod)
Quoting 383. DocNDswamp:
re: 364. Patrap 12:57 PM CDT on October 18, 2013


Hmmm, well it's odd as when I just refreshed #227 was gone again, what the heck?
Maybe my old browser or WU Classic I'm using... I dunno...

Oh - LOL, well OUR mugs sure do luv dem ersters!


post 227 hasn't gone anywhere at any time..you might check your filter settings..
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Quoting 381. StormTrackerScott:


9 to 10 days out. Not too far out.


LOL - hey, I'm agreeing with you. Remember the last time we tried to discuss something? Hope all is well with you. Wish I had some of the warmth that you have down there. Here, damp and chilly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GFS is consistent in showing disturbed weather and potential tropical activity in the Western Caribbean in the next 8-14 days. I will be watching closely. I remember both Ida 2009 and Paloma 2008 were late season hurricanes, with Ida forming during a very "inactive" 2009 year. No clusters of storms have formed yet, but I expect that the strong cold front that pushes off the US will be the trigger for the late season Caribbean storm I expect to develop.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 378. JNTenne:
Gro would have said it in Latin.... (miss you Grothar, hope you are doing okay...)
And Norwegian. I miss you, too, Gro. Best wishes.
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Quoting 383. DocNDswamp:
re: 364. Patrap 12:57 PM CDT on October 18, 2013


Hmmm, well it's odd as when I just refreshed #227 was gone again, what the heck?
Maybe my old browser or WU Classic I'm using... I dunno...

Oh - LOL, well OUR mugs sure do luv dem ersters!


Now the roving puppeteer's are jus yanking our collective chains Doc.

You know, trick or treat practice, minus the toilet paper
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Quoting 379. toddbizz:
I come to this blog to read up on tropical weather activity...trolls and pathetic people with multiple sign in names ??? C'mon really...go spread your agenda somewhere else...GW or CC is educational but when it starts to steer tropical blogging all I have to say is get a life and be gone....my Friday Rant...PS the 2013 year of the blob hurricane season is bordering on pathetic for the Atlantic Basin....wow...


Your contribution to the Topic of the entry is welcomed and appreciated.

Please remember to post periodic updates to your synopsis on the Tropical Aspects mentioned as well.

Thank you for your Co-operation.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
re: 364. Patrap 12:57 PM CDT on October 18, 2013
Quoting Patrap:


WU Democracy at work.

We should get a Mug or Bumper sticker Doc'

'wu loves eyrster's'


Hmmm, well it's odd as when I just refreshed #227 was gone again, what the heck?
Maybe my old browser or WU Classic I'm using... I dunno...

Oh - LOL, well OUR mugs sure do luv dem ersters!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 338. unknowncomic:
South Florida is shaping up for very nice temps soon with a high near 80 and a low in the 60s.


Indeed. It appears Florida's gonna get some fabulous weather from mid/late next week through Halloween!
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Quoting 380. daddyjames:


Although that is a bit far in the future, 'tis the season for fronts to stall out over Florida and rain, rain, rain.


9 to 10 days out. Not too far out.
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Quoting 374. StormTrackerScott:
You can thank the MJO & a deep trough over the Midwest FL for the rainy forecast come late october going into November.




Although that is a bit far in the future, 'tis the season for fronts to stall out over Florida and rain, rain, rain.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I come to this blog to read up on tropical weather activity...trolls and pathetic people with multiple sign in names ??? C'mon really...go spread your agenda somewhere else...GW or CC is educational but when it starts to steer tropical blogging all I have to say is get a life and be gone....my Friday Rant...PS the 2013 year of the blob hurricane season is bordering on pathetic for the Atlantic Basin....wow...
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Quoting 376. daddyjames:


LOL, I have missed gems like this . . .
Gro would have said it in Latin.... (miss you Grothar, hope you are doing okay...)
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Two teams of scientists at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii have been measuring carbon dioxide concentration there for decades, and have watched the level inch toward a new milestone.

Photograph by Jonathan Kingston, National Geographic

Climate Milestone: Earth’s CO2 Level Passes 400 ppm
Greenhouse gas highest since the Pliocene, when sea levels were higher and the Earth was warmer.



Robert Kunzig

National Geographic News
Published May 9, 2013

An instrument near the summit of Mauna Loa in Hawaii has recorded a long-awaited climate milestone: the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere there has exceeded 400 parts per million (ppm) for the first time in 55 years of measurement—and probably more than 3 million years of Earth history.

The last time the concentration of Earth's main greenhouse gas reached this mark, horses and camels lived in the high Arctic. Seas were at least 30 feet higher—at a level that today would inundate major cities around the world.


The planet was about 2 to 3 degrees Celsius (3.6 to 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer. But the Earth then was in the final stage of a prolonged greenhouse epoch, and CO2 concentrations were on their way down. This time, 400 ppm is a milepost on a far more rapid uphill climb toward an uncertain climate future.

Two independent teams of scientists measure CO2 on Mauna Loa: one from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the other from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. The NOAA team posted word on its web site this morning before dawn Hawaii time: The daily average for May 9 was 400.03 ppm. The Scripps team later confirmed the milestone had been crossed.

The Scripps team is led by Ralph Keeling, son of the late Charles David Keeling, who started the Mauna Loa measurements in 1958. Since then the "Keeling curve," showing the steady climb in CO2 levels caused primarily by burning fossil fuels, has become an icon of climate change.

When the elder Keeling started at Mauna Loa, the CO2 level was at 315 ppm. When he died in June 2005, it was at 382. Why did he keep at it for 47 years, fighting off periodic efforts to cut his funding? His father, he once wrote, had passed onto him a "faith that the world could be made better by devotion to just causes." Now his son and the NOAA team have taken over a measurement that captures, more than any other single number, the extent to which we are changing the world—for better or worse.

Setting the Record Straight

Since late April that number had been hovering above 399 ppm. The Scripps lab opened the vigil to the public by sending out daily tweets (under the handle @Keeling_curve) almost as soon as the data could be downloaded from Mauna Loa, at 5 a.m. Hawaii time. NOAA took to updating its website daily. The two labs' measurements typically agree within .2 ppm. Both measure the amount of CO2 in an air sample by measuring how much infrared radiation it absorbs—the same process by which CO2 in the atmosphere traps heat and warms the whole planet.


...much more.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Quoting 372. bappit:

Depends on where your head is at.


LOL, I have missed gems like this . . .
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Quoting 368. Minnemike:
do you also see a proctologist when you have a head cold?


Lol. This might be one of the best insults ever.

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You can thank the MJO & a deep trough over the Midwest FL for the rainy forecast come late october going into November.


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Quoting 370. Neapolitan:
Folks who don't understand climate science should stay away from Microsoft Paint?

+100
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Quoting 368. Minnemike:
do you also see a proctologist when you have a head cold?

Depends on where your head is at.
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Quoting 358. Naga5000:


In Germany, Homer says "Nein!" I was really not prepared for that. :)
"Nein"? Those silly Germans! My 30 seconds of Google research confirmed that Nein means "NO!". I suppose if it can also extend to "OH NO!" it works. In French he probably just says "marde!"
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Quoting 334. Sfloridacat5:
What does this chart tell us?
That folks who don't understand climate science should stay away from Microsoft Paint?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13509
Quoting 363. ecupirate:


Meteorologist is not = climate scientist.
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Quoting ecupirate:
do you also see a proctologist when you have a head cold?
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Maybe 36 to 48 cool (cool meaning 80 to 85 during the day and 60 at night) outbreak before the Caribbean tropical express sets up over FL.



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Quoting 360. Sfloridacat5:


Looks to be cited down in the right bottom corner. I might be able to find the article the chart came from if I search enough. It had lots of information on GW/Cimate change.


Geocraft is an amateur fossil hunter's website and should not be taken as scientific when it comes to information on AGW. As for fossils, he seems pretty good at that.
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About the only place to stay cool as temps are now in the 90's. 91 here with a heat index of 97. Way to hot for this time of year.

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Quoting 362. DocNDswamp:
Ahh, okay, thanks Scott, Pat and Naga, so it has been restored. Admin must have overruled those who objected to the post.

Carry on...
;)


WU Democracy at work.

We should get a Mug or Bumper sticker Doc'

'wu loves eyrster's'
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ahh, okay, thanks Scott, Pat and Naga, so it has been restored. Admin must have overruled those who objected to the post.

Carry on...
;)
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Quoting 349. ScottLincoln:

Little. It's not sourced in any way.


Looks to be cited down in the right bottom corner. I might be able to find the article the chart came from if I search enough. It had lots of information on GW/Cimate change.
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359. auburn (Mod)
Just a reminder folks...Keep it civil. Personal attacks, bickering, flaming, and general trollish behavior will not be tolerated. Disagreements are fine, but keep them civil and short.Thanks everyone!
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Quoting 354. HeinrichFrogswatter:


Whenever I watch the Simpsons when I am in Mexico, it appears that they dub D'oh! with D'oh! Only difference is that Homero says it. Strange, he's the only one in the cast that gets a new name in the Spanish version.


In Germany, Homer says "Nein!" I was really not prepared for that. :)
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Quoting 338. unknowncomic:
South Florida is shaping up for very nice temps soon with a high near 80 and a low in the 60s.
Where did you read that? If that cold front stalls just north of the area like most of the models are now showing, you will not see that much of a dramatic cool down. Maybe only 3 or 4 degrees all around. Let's hope not. I never want the summer to end.
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Quoting 348. DocNDswamp:
re: #227 JTDailyUpdate's post on the Wyatt / Curry paper.

Thanks Birthmark and Naga5000 for quoting it so I could see what was posted, but for what reason was comment #227 removed???

This is absurd censorship.
Whether one agrees or disagrees with the findings of the study or dislikes it's author / co-author, this was a interesting hypothesis published in a science journal specifically relating to factors influencing weather / climate... The commenter broke no rules, most certainly within the bounds of Dr Jeff's entry topic.

I'd really like to hear an explanation why this merited removal, other than yet another example of Wunderground's flag buttons being overused and abused from their original intent.



Not removed, still shows as existing to me.
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For those few that know me I am not a doomcaster, wishcaster or naysayer but: what in the frick happened to our hyperactive Atlantic season? We got Andrea here and remnants od Chantal and Dorian! I don't wanna go up against a major but this season seems to be extremely baffling at best! Any thoughts from the other oldtimers (yes you Sensei and others)?
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Quoting 348. DocNDswamp:
re: #227 JTDailyUpdate's post on the Wyatt / Curry paper.

Thanks Birthmark and Naga5000 for quoting it so I could see what was posted, but for what reason was comment #227 removed???

This is absurd censorship.
Whether one agrees or disagrees with the findings of the study or dislikes it's author / co-author, this was a interesting hypothesis published in a science journal specifically relating to factors influencing weather / climate... The commenter broke no rules, most certainly within the bounds of Dr Jeff's entry topic.

I'd really like to hear an explanation why this merited removal, other than yet another example of Wunderground's flag buttons being overused and abused from their original intent.


It could have been community flagged out with the ! Doc, but I saw dat 2.

Kinda like a False start...or Quick draw McGee in a way
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Quoting 348. DocNDswamp:
re: #227 JTDailyUpdate's post on the Wyatt / Curry paper.

Thanks Birthmark and Naga5000 for quoting it so I could see what was posted, but for what reason was comment #227 removed???

I can still see post #227.
Did you happen to put that author on ignore?
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3190
Quoting 334. Sfloridacat5:
What does this chart tell us?

Nothing about what's going on now, since the last million years is about the thickness of a fingernail.
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No, I'M Spartacus!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Quoting 334. Sfloridacat5:
What does this chart tell us?

Little. It's not sourced in any way.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3190
re: #227 JTDailyUpdate's post on the Wyatt / Curry paper.

Thanks Birthmark and Naga5000 for quoting it so I could see what was posted, but for what reason was comment #227 removed???

This is absurd censorship.
Whether one agrees or disagrees with the findings of the study or dislikes it's author / co-author, this was a interesting hypothesis published in a science journal specifically relating to factors influencing weather / climate... The commenter broke no rules, most certainly within the bounds of Dr Jeff's entry topic.

I'd really like to hear an explanation why this merited removal, other than yet another example of Wunderground's flag buttons being overused and abused from their original intent.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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