Intriguing Tipping Points TV Series Begins Airing Saturday at 9pm EDT

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 PM GMT on October 18, 2013

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How does one tell the most important story of our time--the emergence of our great Climate Disruption--without boring one's audience to tears, but at the same time, not resorting to over-hyped spinning of the science? “Tipping Points”, a landmark 6-part TV series that begins airing at 9 pm EDT Saturday, October 19 on The Weather Channel, aims to do just that. "Tipping Points" follows a group of preeminent scientists as they venture off the grid to explore the perilous tipping points making our weather systems more extreme and unpredictable.

The phenomena of “tipping points” follows the concept that, at a particular moment in time, a small change can have a large, long-term consequence on a fragile climate system already in a state of flux. Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. Further, when the situation is pushed past the “tipping point,” it will potentially lead to a chain reaction, putting other ecosystems around the globe in peril. “Tipping Points” will feature several of the most critical examples, including the collapse of the Greenland ice sheet, total melting of the Himalayan icecap glaciers, die-back of the Amazon rainforest, shutdown of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation, and the rapid melt of the permafrost in Siberia. "Tipping Points" will not only show how climate changes affect local communities in exotic and distant locales like the Amazon or Siberia, but how it impacts and is relevant to people from Australia and Asia to Europe, South America to Canada and every community in between. The series explores what is happening at the most dramatic tipping points and looks to find answers to understand what can be done to stem the tide of change before we do irreparable damage, and ultimately put our own lives at risk.



The series is hosted by polar explorer and climate journalist Bernice Notenboom, the first woman to climb Mt. Everest and walk to the North and South Poles. She is joined by a number of leading international environmental scientists in each episode, such as Dr. Jason Box, Dr. Matthew England, Professor Peter Cox, and more. In each episode, Notenboom heads off to a far corner of the world to find scientists in the field undertaking vital climate research to try to understand how the climate system is changing and how long we have to make significant changes before we reach a tipping point--a point of no return when our climate system will be changed irreversibly.



The first episode at 9 pm EDT/8 pm CDT this Saturday will be "Amazon Rainforest Risks". "Tipping Points" host Bernice Notenboom will join Peter Cox, Professor of Climate System Dynamics at the University of Exeter, on an expedition across the vast Amazon Rainforest to explore the mega droughts and tree deaths occurring that threaten the forest's survival this century. The Amazon stores CO2 in its soils and biomass equivalent to about fifteen years of human-caused emissions, so a massive die-back of the forest could greatly accelerate global warming. Photosynthesis in the world's largest rainforest keeps the Earth cooler by taking about 2 billion tons of carbon dioxide out of the air each year. However, exceptional droughts in both 2005 and 2010 reversed this process. The Amazon emitted 3 billion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere in 2005, causing a net 5 billion ton increase in CO2 to the atmosphere--roughly equivalent to 19% of the total CO2 emissions to the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels that year. A 2013 NASA-led study found that an area of the Amazon rainforest twice the size of California continues to suffer from the effects of the 2005 mega drought. A 2008 paper by Professor Cox warned that their climate model predicted a rapidly increasing risk of 2005-like droughts from 1-in-20 years in the present climate to 1-in-2 years by 2025, if we continue emitting CO2 at our current "business-as-usual" pace. A 2013 study by Fu et al. found that the dry season length has grown by about seven days per decade in the southern part of the rainforest. If this trend continues in coming decades at half of that rate, the fire season that contributed to the 2005 drought would become the new norm by the late 21st century. The leader of the study, Rong Fu, explained: "The dry season over the southern Amazon is already a marginal for maintaining rainforest. At some point, if it becomes too long, the rainforest will reach a tipping point."



Typhoon Francisco headed towards Japan
Category 4 Typhoon Francisco continues to intensify over the warm waters of the Western Pacific about 200 miles west of Guam. Even though the eye of Francisco passed more than 150 miles west of Guam Friday morning, the huge storm brought sustained winds of 37 mph, gusting to 46 mph, to the island, along with 6.75" of rain. Satellite loops show that Francisco is well-organized with an impressive area of heavy thunderstorms and a prominent eye. With warm waters that extend to great depth and low wind shear, continued strengthening is likely, and Francisco is forecast to become a super typhoon with 150 mph winds by Saturday as it heads northwest towards Japan. The European model now shows that Francisco will miss Japan, but the GFS model predicts that Francisco will hit Japan on Thursday next week. There is very high uncertainty in the storm's track that far into the future, since the timing of Francisco's turn the northeast is difficult to predict.

The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days.

Jeff Masters

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448. auburn (Mod)
as you all know we tend to be less restrictive when the weather is slow..thats the time you all as bloggers need to self moderate with the ! button..that doesn't mean to flag out someone just because you disagree with their post or dont like them..no matter what you think of people who post here,many of you spend more time talking to to these people than you do others face to face..be nice if you all would treat one another with some respect and and think before you hit the comment button.
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 547 Comments: 50881
447. VR46L





<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< Peeks in blog doorway....hmmmm slowly backs away ....and runs for the hills
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6998
Quoting 435. ncstorm:


wow..

The insults need to stop on both sides..

Dr. Masters, do you want quality vs quantity on the substance of your blog comments?


Patrap should be banned for that maybe perma ban. That's pretty bad. Respected blogger or not that was out of line!
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A bit foggy here in Amsterdam, still seeing the Moon but not clearly... what time would the eclipse be at in local time?
Member Since: August 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 208
444. auburn (Mod)
Quoting 426. PensacolaDoug:



Why did u let 368 stand?


Because you as bloggers have the power to flag out what you find offensive all by yourselves..did YOU flag it?
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 547 Comments: 50881


Typhoon 26W FRANSISCO

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 OCT 2013 Time : 190000 UTC
Lat : 16:00:58 N Lon : 140:52:56 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 925.9mb/129.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : +15.0C Cloud Region Temp : -76.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 128km
- Environmental MSLP : 1003mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 19.4 degrees


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
Quoting 439. Neapolitan:
Just flag them and ignore them; you won't see them again, and if the mods think they're banworthy, they'll take the appropriate action...


Now Nea, for the first time I will say you are absolutely right but the flag system doesnt seem to be working as comments are still visible and not removed..
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18z Run for 96E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1932 UTC FRI OCT 18 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962013) 20131018 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
131018 1800 131019 0600 131019 1800 131020 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.5N 96.3W 10.9N 98.1W 11.1N 99.4W 11.3N 100.3W
BAMD 10.5N 96.3W 10.9N 97.8W 11.1N 98.8W 11.1N 99.6W
BAMM 10.5N 96.3W 11.3N 98.0W 11.7N 99.3W 12.0N 100.3W
LBAR 10.5N 96.3W 11.3N 98.4W 12.1N 100.4W 13.1N 102.1W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 29KTS 38KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 29KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
131020 1800 131021 1800 131022 1800 131023 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.4N 100.8W 11.9N 101.3W 11.4N 101.5W 10.2N 103.3W
BAMD 10.8N 100.2W 10.4N 100.9W 9.7N 102.3W 8.7N 104.0W
BAMM 12.1N 100.9W 12.3N 101.5W 12.1N 101.7W 11.4N 102.6W
LBAR 14.2N 103.5W 17.3N 104.1W 20.6N 102.5W 23.7N 99.2W
SHIP 51KTS 67KTS 69KTS 71KTS
DSHP 51KTS 67KTS 69KTS 71KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.5N LONCUR = 96.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 10.0N LONM12 = 93.8W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 9.6N LONM24 = 91.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14913
Evening everyone from my german vaction countryside. Very nice weather today and a lot of walking, puhh :)

I'm so glad that the end of US furlough as brought us back the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) site, here with Francisco:





Source and more

3-D-animation
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Quoting 435. ncstorm:


wow..

The insults need to stop on both sides..

Dr. Masters, do you want quality vs quantity on the substance of your blog comments?
Just flag them and ignore them; you won't see them again, and if the mods think they're banworthy, they'll take the appropriate action...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13805
NASA: Global Climate Change

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is an important heat-trapping (greenhouse) gas, which is released through human activities such as deforestation and burning fossil fuels, as well as natural processes such as respiration and volcanic eruptions.


The chart on the left shows the CO2 levels in the Earth's atmosphere during the last three glacial cycles, as reconstructed from ice cores. The chart on the right shows CO2 levels in recent years, corrected for average seasonal cycles.

The time series at right shows global distribution and variation of the concentration of mid-tropospheric carbon dioxide in parts per million (ppmv) at an altitude range of 3-13 kilometers (1.9 to 8 miles).
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
Quoting 430. Patrap:
Cuz its Phunny.



oh I'm sorry..I quoted it before you could edited it..
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Quoting 430. Patrap:
Cuz its Phunny.

Sit back down yer fly is open


wow..

The insults need to stop on both sides..

Dr. Masters, do you want quality vs quantity on the substance of your blog comments?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Does it work the same in a Can o Tea ?

jProlly' jus asking
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
Klotzbach has documented and written about the observed inverse relationship between the Atlantic Basin and E-Pac activity, and that may be a factor in some of the suppression of Atlantic "hurricanes" this year but the ultimate outcome last year and again this year (a dearth of hurricanes and majors and large number of low grade tropical storms) is quite the anomaly given La Nina-Enso Neutral conditions over the past two seasons and a bit surprising.

You never know what can happen in any given season; if we go to El Nino conditions next Atlantic season, you would expect lower numbers, but you could also get an Andrew type storm in a low numbers season. This current lack of a normal number of "majors" and the proliferation of so many struggling tropical storms due to stable air and/or fast trades in non El Nino years is.

I would actually like to see a well established El Nino in place by next Summer so we could do some comparisons along the same lines and see if we end up with any un-traditional anomalies there as well.
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Cuz its Phunny.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
Quoting 427. hydrus:

Impressive. Green on the Funktop.
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I think global warming will make growing old extra special for the next generation.
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Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22706
Quoting 396. auburn:
I as a mod had rather do anything other than ban fellow bloggers,but it is my job and the other mods job to maintain the rules on this blog..I ask you all again to please post respectfully to one another and if you must bicker please do so in the privacy of your blog or a message..again thank you all



Why did u let 368 stand?
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here come the big storm!!!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 113 Comments: 106785
Quoting 414. Tropicsweatherpr:
Yikes! 12z ECMWF has a high end cat 2 in EPAC with 96E.


I love late-season EPac storms that develop/move close to Mexico like that, especially when the pattern looks like this:



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Quoting 418. bappit:

Yes, and I think the tipping point story will haunt us because people will think things are okay as long as no obvious tipping point has occurred.

When you go in for a check up and your doctor tells you you have to quit smoking because you have emphysema ... well that's too little, too late. (And I've known people dying from that disease to keep smoking anyway because, well, what difference does it make.)

What you just wrote hits the nail on the head with the biggest hammer you can imagine.
If things are irreparably gone wrong then nothing whatever that can be done will reverse things.
This is probably how the climate doom will evolve and eventually terminate.
When things cant be repaired then what's the point in trying?
A bit like driving a car on a remote road in a storm at night and you get a puncture . The flat tire cant be fixed so what's the point in stopping as you don't have a spare wheel (planet,) and by driving on you get that bit further.
Eventually you get bogged down and doom sets in. At least it was fun trying to get somewhere rather than perishing in the wilderness.
This is probably the fate of humanity walking about in divers suits with oxygen tanks and air conditioning knowing its all terminal anyway!
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Oh, and a little off topic, but there is a quite a large fire at a big residential building in Los Angeles.
Link

And I have perfect view point of the Lunar Eclipse. Might even take a pic if I feel like it
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Lunar Eclipse Rises With Full Moon Tonight: Watch It Live Online
by Miriam Kramer, Staff Writer | October 18, 2013 05:48am ET



The full moon will dip into Earth's shadow tonight (Oct. 18), producing a lunar eclipse that can be seen by keen observers around the world.

Weather permitting, skywatchers in Africa, Europe, western Asia, and the eastern parts of North and South America will get the chance to observe part of the southern portion of the moon passing into Earth's penumbra — the planet's outer shadow.

Penumbral Lunar Eclipse of Oct. 18, 2013 DiagramPin It This diagram shows how the moon will pass through the Earth's penumbra (shadow) on Oct. 18, 2013.
Credit: Fred Espenak, NASA/GSFCView full size image
The shading will be subtle, but during the penumbral lunar eclipse, the moon will be partially in shadow for about four hours with the time of deepest eclipse occurring at 7:50 p.m. EDT (2350 GMT). At that moment, the Earth's outer shadow will cover 76.5 percent of the lunar disk. [See amazing photos of a penumbral lunar eclipse]


You can also watch the eclipse online. The online Slooh Space Camera will air a live broadcast of the entire four-hour eclipse starting at 2:45 p.m. EDT (1845 GMT). Slooh's team of experts will join the show at 7:30 p.m. EDT (2330 GMT) to comment during the eclipse's peak. You can watch the penumbral eclipse webcast live on SPACE.com, courtesy of Slooh.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
Well Hurricane season is about over in the northern hemisphere, we might get one more late bloomer, but after that we can finally kiss the 2013 Hurricane Season goodbye. Been a strange one, but glad to see the season come away with only minimal damages and under 50 fatalities, as the forecast showed a much different outlook back in April. I hope to see 2014 come out a tad more impressive but hopefully to have damages and fatalities stay at a minimal. Been quite a contrast to the past 3 seasons, but the Cateogry 5 and Major Hurricane Landfall drought continues on as it appears that 2013 will not bust either of them just like past seasons.
I will be very interested to see what kind of predictions CSU has in store for their December issue of their 2014 Hurricane season forecast considering some indicators point to a possible El Nino developing by next summer. Also Next season will mark 20 years since the Atlantic Active Period began.

On another note, fall has came into full swing here in Texas and some places like Amarillo have flipped 180 degrees into Winter, maybe we will get some snow down here this year.
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Hearing about a Lunar Eclipse tonight most visible in the Northeast
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Quoting 415. lickitysplit:

Yes, and I think the tipping point story will haunt us because people will think things are okay as long as no obvious tipping point has occurred.

When you go in for a check up and your doctor tells you you have to quit smoking because you have emphysema ... well that's too little, too late. (And I've known people dying from that disease to keep smoking anyway because, well, what difference does it make.)
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18z Best Track for now SuperTyphoon Francisco up to 135 kts and pressure down to 922 mbs.

26W FRANCISCO 131018 1800 15.9N 141.1E WPAC 135 922
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14913
Quoting 405. Patrap:
I'd say we're being purty much affected a lot already.And the moderator man and blogger Sam
Were Banning every one/em>


Blogger Sam = Taz
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Amazing that the ice age canard keeps popping up despite being shot down 8 katrillion times
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Yikes! 12z ECMWF has a high end cat 2 in EPAC with 96E.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14913
For climatology this tipping point talk seems more like a media thing than a scientific perspective--sort of like ice ages back about 40 years ago.
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412. auburn (Mod)
Quoting 408. DocNDswamp:


G'day Aubie,
Have no clue what's the issue, filter set to "show all" and far as remember I haven't put anyone on "ignore" in over 5-6 years when we had really pervasive troll problems bleeding over into our own blogs or email... I see Pat's comment #226 followed by StormTrackerScott's at #228, perhaps the omission just odd behavior on my antique browser, computer and WU Classic. Thanks anyway...


Could be a glitch with classic..it is no longer updated or maintained per-say.but the post you referenced has never been removed from what I can find.
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 547 Comments: 50881
Quoting 410. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The multi-year ENSO battle continues with no sign of either giving an inch.

Please, no more heat budget battles.
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Quoting 403. Tropicsweatherpr:
The ESPI has gone up slowly in the past few weeks and from being around -60 is now -0.01 meaning less cold waters in the equatorial pacific.

ESPI Data as of 10/18/13 -0.01

The multi-year ENSO battle continues with no sign of either giving an inch.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32860

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT
SATURDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TEMPERATURES: 29 TO 32 DEGREES.

* IMPACTS: DAMAGE TO TENDER VEGETATION AND CROPS SUSCEPTIBLE TO
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE STEPS TO PROTECT SENSITIVE PLANTS FROM FREEZING
TEMPERATURES.

&&


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE SENSITIVE PLANTS INDOORS TO AVOID DAMAGE FROM FREEZING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

$$
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Quoting auburn:


post 227 hasn't gone anywhere at any time..you might check your filter settings..


G'day Aubie,
Have no clue what's the issue, filter set to "show all" and far as remember I haven't put anyone on "ignore" in over 5-6 years when we had really pervasive troll problems bleeding over into our own blogs or email... I see Pat's comment #226 followed by StormTrackerScott's at #228, perhaps the omission just odd behavior on my antique browser, computer and WU Classic. Thanks anyway...
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Quoting 382. weatherbro:


Indeed. It appears Florida's gonna get some fabulous weather from mid/late next week through Halloween!


Maybe 2 days of nice weather as Euro & GFS now stall the front over S FL or just south of the state before lifting the front back north as a warm front. Contrast to your statement a very warm and wet Halloween appears to be on tap.


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I'd say we're being purty much affected a lot already.

But daz jus mees.

I mean,

Blog on the Run


Stuck outside the server
Sent outside forever
Never seeing no one nice again like you
Mama you, mama you

If I ever get out of here
Thought of giving it all away
To a registered charity(portlight)
All I need is a quote a day
If I ever get out of here
If we ever get out of here

Well the Blog exploded with a mighty crash
As we fell into AGW
And the first one said to the second one there
I hope you're having fun

Blog on the run
Blog on the run
And the moderator man and blogger Sam
Were Banning every one

For the blog on the run
Blog on the run
For the band on the run
Blog on the run

Well the entry's maker drew a heavy sigh
Seeing no one else had come
And a INVEST was ringing in the NHC square
For the Cane's on the run

Blog on the run
Blog on the run
And the jailer Mod and Blogger Sam
Was searching every one

For the blog on the run
Blog on the run

Yea the band on the run
Blog on the run
Blog on the run
Blog on the run

Well the night was falling as the bloggin world
Began to settle down
In the wunderground they're searching for us every where
Cuz we never will be found

Blog on the run
Blog on the run
And the county mod who held a grudge
Will search for evermore

For the Blog on the run
Blog on the run
Blog on the run
Blog on the run
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
Quoting 401. JNTenne:
Has anyone else read the best selling book "The Tipping Point" By M. Gladwell? It is a very insightful read and I recommend it highly though it deals more with inter-human interaction as opposed to climatology..


Thanks for the tip, I'll add it to my read list.
It is important to realize that all our inter-human ineractions will be greatly affected by climate change, so this is an important area to study.
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The ESPI has gone up slowly in the past few weeks and from being around -60 is now -0.01 meaning less cold waters in the equatorial pacific.

ESPI Data as of 10/18/13 -0.01
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14913
Quoting 387. GrandCaymanMed:
GFS is consistent in showing disturbed weather and potential tropical activity in the Western Caribbean in the next 8-14 days. I will be watching closely. I remember both Ida 2009 and Paloma 2008 were late season hurricanes, with Ida forming during a very "inactive" 2009 year. No clusters of storms have formed yet, but I expect that the strong cold front that pushes off the US will be the trigger for the late season Caribbean storm I expect to develop.
How do you like your crow? Medium, Medium Well or Well Done.
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Has anyone else read the best selling book "The Tipping Point" By M. Gladwell? It is a very insightful read and I recommend it highly though it deals more with inter-human interaction as opposed to climatology..
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apologies to the blog, Auburn.
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"we're so sorry, Uncle auburn"

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
Quoting 324. ncstorm:


I dont have to believe in conspiracies..I can read and saw the exchange...LOL..

lets keep the flow of internet comments to the topic of GW..thats whats important..the doom of our planet with aid of our computers..
But you don't want to reveal it to anyone else....... Hmmmmm.........
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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