Category 2 Francisco Brushing Guam, and is a Long-Range Threat to Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:48 PM GMT on October 17, 2013

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Category 2 Typhoon Francisco is steadily intensifying over the warm waters of the Western Pacific about 160 miles southwest of Guam. The typhoon is expected to make its closest approach to Guam on Friday morning (local time), bringing sustained winds of 35 - 45 mph and heavy rain, as the storm heads north-northeast at 9 mph. Long range radar out of Guam and satellite loops show that Francisco is well-organized with an impressive area of heavy thunderstorms and a prominent eye. With warm waters that extend to great depth and low wind shear, continued strengthening is likely, and Francisco is forecast to become a major Category 4 typhoon by Saturday as it turns northwest towards Japan. Both the GFS and European models predict that Francisco will hit Japan on Wednesday or Thursday next week, though there is very high uncertainty in the storm's track that far into the future. Francisco's formation gives the Western Pacific 27 named storms so far in 2013, which is the average number of named storms for an entire year. The last time there were more than 27 tropical storms or typhoons in the Western Pacific was in 2004, when there were 32.


Figure 1. View of Typhoon Francisco from the long range radar out of Guam.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Francisco, taken at approximately 03 UTC on October 16, 2013. At the time, Francisco had top winds of about 85 mph. Image credit: NASA.

18 dead, 40+ missing in Japan after Typhoon Wipha
Typhoon Wipha roared past Japan on Tuesday as a Category 1 typhoon, bringing destructive winds and high rains that triggered flooding being blamed for at least 18 deaths. Most of the deaths occurred on Izu Oshima island, about 75 miles south of Tokyo. An astonishing 33.44" (824 mm) fell in just 23 hours on the island, triggering flash floods and mudslides that killed 17 people and left at least 40 missing. During one incredibly wet 6-hour period, 549.5 mm fell, setting a new 6-hour precipitation record for Japan. The previous record was 502.0 mm at Tarama, Okinawa, on April 28, 1988. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, the 24-hour total at Oshima Island was the third highest 24-hour rainfall for Japan on record; the record is 851.5 mm at Yanase (Kochi Prefecture) on 19 July 2011, and 2nd place is the 844 mm that fell at Takeshi (Nara) on 1 August 1982. Wipha is the fourth named storm to hit Japan so far in 2013, and the deadliest typhoon to hit Japan since Typhoon Tokage of October 2004. An average of 2.8 tropical storms or typhoons per year hit Japan during the period 1951 - 2003. Japan's record busiest year was 2004, when ten named storms hit, six of them at Category 1 or higher strength. Jeffrey Hayes has put together a nice summary of Japan's typhoon history.

The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days. NHC is giving 10% odds that an area of disturbed weather (Invest 99L) about 200 miles north-northeast of Bermuda headed northeast out to sea, will develop. During the last few days of October and the first week of November, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is predicted to transition into a phase that will bring an increase in upward-moving air over the Atlantic, boosting the odds of tropical storm formation. The most likely area for formation will be in the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.

Jeff Masters

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567. georgevandenberghe
8:49 PM GMT on October 18, 2013
Quoting 562. wunderkidcayman:

Nooooooooo!!!!
GFS bring it back


Verification 0001 (remedial)

Don't verify a forecast with another forecast.
Member Since: February 1, 2012 Posts: 19 Comments: 2091
566. PensacolaDoug
12:26 PM GMT on October 18, 2013
Quoting 565. ncstorm:


okay thanks..

I wouldnt have known they were weatherbell by looking at your graphs..you would have to have a subscription to view them right?


Yes
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 649
565. ncstorm
12:20 PM GMT on October 18, 2013
Quoting 564. PensacolaDoug:


The multi year bar graph is I believe.

The 1 year graph has its origins from the NCEP re-analysis site.

I did pull them from WB tho. Joe D'Aleo 's blog.


okay thanks..

I wouldnt have known they were weatherbell by looking at your graphs..you would have to have a subscription to view them right?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16215
564. PensacolaDoug
12:09 PM GMT on October 18, 2013
Quoting 561. ncstorm:


good morning Doug,

Are these weatherbell graphs?


The multi year bar graph is I believe.

The 1 year graph has its origins from the NCEP re-analysis site.

I did pull them from WB tho. Joe D'Aleo 's blog.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 649
563. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
12:09 PM GMT on October 18, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
562. wunderkidcayman
12:07 PM GMT on October 18, 2013
Quoting 559. StormTrackerScott:
GFS is steadly backing off on the cold snap for next week. SE US will only get a glancing blow now.


Nooooooooo!!!!
GFS bring it back
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12712
561. ncstorm
12:03 PM GMT on October 18, 2013
Quoting 545. PensacolaDoug:
Snow cover history 1966 to present:




Snow cover this year against the 1995-2009 mean.


Not too bad for this early in the season.


good morning Doug,

Are these weatherbell graphs?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16215
560. Bobbyweather
12:02 PM GMT on October 18, 2013
Both JTWC and JMA ADT indicating T7.0, or Category 5:

2013OCT18 111400 7.0 922.0 140.0 7.0 6.9 6.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 12.69 -75.11 EYE 20 IR 76.3 15.25 -141.90 COMBO MTSAT2 18.2

2013OCT18 111400 7.0 900.7 +2.7 140.0 7.0 6.9 6.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 12.69 -75.12 EYE 20 IR 82.4 15.26 -141.86 COMBO MTSAT2 18.2
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 90 Comments: 2678
559. StormTrackerScott
12:02 PM GMT on October 18, 2013
GFS is steadly backing off on the cold snap for next week. SE US will only get a glancing blow now.


Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 4438
558. StormTrackerScott
12:00 PM GMT on October 18, 2013
Quoting 557. Neapolitan:
Scientists have long predicted that, as the planet warms, there'll be increasingly heavier snow cover in the winter months, and increasingly less the rest of the year. It's reassuring--from a forecasting perspective, at least--to see that trend clearly reflected in those WeatherBell graphs.


I must say Nea I agree with yout post. Warming means more water vapor in the atmosphere to produce higher snow totals during the winter & spring months.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 4438
557. Neapolitan
11:52 AM GMT on October 18, 2013
Quoting 545. PensacolaDoug:
Snow cover history 1966 to present:




Snow cover this year against the 1995-2009 mean.


Not too bad for this early in the season.
Scientists have long predicted that, as the planet warms, there'll be increasingly heavier snow cover in the winter months, and increasingly less the rest of the year. It's reassuring--from a forecasting perspective, at least--to see that trend clearly reflected in those WeatherBell graphs.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13743
556. LargoFl
11:47 AM GMT on October 18, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41838
555. Hurricane614
11:46 AM GMT on October 18, 2013
Quoting 549. percylives:
Lit the wood stove for the first time this year this morning to check it out for the coming season. This fall has so far been quite mild here in central VA. The sweet potatoes and peppers are enjoying it. Our fall colors are way behind schedule with many of the oaks and maples in August colors.

A question for the group. Have you seen many Monarch butterflies this fall? Here we have had almost none and that is a great change from just a couple of years back when thousands of them flew through. A few of my fellow county residents have seen one or two but that's been it. I, despite looking harder than ever, have not made a single positive ID of one this fall.


I saw a few monarchs yesterday, but overall haven't seen many this season
Member Since: September 6, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 509
554. Xandra
11:45 AM GMT on October 18, 2013
Northern Hemisphere snow cover - departure from satellite-era normal

October 17, 2013 (Day 290)


Member Since: November 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1281
553. LargoFl
11:45 AM GMT on October 18, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41838
552. LargoFl
11:43 AM GMT on October 18, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41838
551. LargoFl
11:42 AM GMT on October 18, 2013
Quoting 549. percylives:
Lit the wood stove for the first time this year this morning to check it out for the coming season. This fall has so far been quite mild here in central VA. The sweet potatoes and peppers are enjoying it. Our fall colors are way behind schedule with many of the oaks and maples in August colors.

A question for the group. Have you seen many Monarch butterflies this fall? Here we have had almost none and that is a great change from just a couple of years back when thousands of them flew through. A few of my fellow county residents have seen one or two but that's been it. I, despite looking harder than ever, have not made a single positive ID of one this fall.
none here around me..used to see some a few years ago.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41838
550. LargoFl
11:41 AM GMT on October 18, 2013
Tampa Bay area 7-day.................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41838
549. percylives
11:40 AM GMT on October 18, 2013
Lit the wood stove for the first time this year this morning to check it out for the coming season. This fall has so far been quite mild here in central VA. The sweet potatoes and peppers are enjoying it. Our fall colors are way behind schedule with many of the oaks and maples in August colors.

A question for the group. Have you seen many Monarch butterflies this fall? Here we have had almost none and that is a great change from just a couple of years back when thousands of them flew through. A few of my fellow county residents have seen one or two but that's been it. I, despite looking harder than ever, have not made a single positive ID of one this fall.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 99
548. LargoFl
11:39 AM GMT on October 18, 2013
Local met last night said there are 3 fronts coming and the one that will knock down temps at night into the 40's will the the third one which will be a strong one..maybe getting here to tampa bay sometime the following weekend or so..we'll see what happens...that big a drop in temps might bring some bad weather along with it.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41838
547. PensacolaDoug
11:20 AM GMT on October 18, 2013
Quoting 546. MiamiHurricanes09:
Satellite imagery suggests that Francisco is likely a borderline category 5 cyclone at this time. The typhoon has grown far more symmetrical with an intense ring of convection continuing to develop around a warming eye feature with a beautiful stadium effect. Francisco could easily max out in the 140-150kt range over the next 12-24 hours sans any EWRCs.



I'm glad it's not in the GOM.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 649
546. MiamiHurricanes09
11:19 AM GMT on October 18, 2013
Satellite imagery suggests that Francisco is likely a borderline category 5 cyclone at this time. The typhoon has grown far more symmetrical with an intense ring of convection continuing to develop around a warming eye feature with a beautiful stadium effect. Francisco could easily max out in the 140-150kt range over the next 12-24 hours sans any EWRCs.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
545. PensacolaDoug
11:19 AM GMT on October 18, 2013
Snow cover history 1966 to present:




Snow cover this year against the 1995-2009 mean.


Not too bad for this early in the season.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 649
544. beell
11:05 AM GMT on October 18, 2013
Fairly impressive blocking pattern "stuck" in place over the west coast of the CONUS if the GFS is correct. Weather over the northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Midwest should remain unsettled as disturbances rotate through the trough.


GFS 500 mb height anomaly. Left to right, Day 3, 8, and 11
(click for full image)
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
543. Ameister12
10:42 AM GMT on October 18, 2013
Good morning everybody!

Francisco is likely approaching category 5 intensity this morning. Just an absolutely stunning tropical cyclone.

Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5080
541. PensacolaDoug
10:17 AM GMT on October 18, 2013
One of my favorite vacation spots.
Breckenridge this morning.

Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 649
540. aislinnpaps
10:12 AM GMT on October 18, 2013
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. Fall has arrived! It's 52 degrees, 51 wind chill, 51 dew point and a bit humid. *G* A high of only 77 expected, should be a beautiful day!

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Andouille sausage and shrimp scramble, whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, egg burritos with cheese and chorizo, steak, eggs and hash browns, Egg, Sausage & Cheese Breakfast Bowl, Breakfast Grain Salad with Blueberries, Hazelnuts & Lemon, berry breakfast pizza, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3166
539. PensacolaDoug
10:08 AM GMT on October 18, 2013
G'morning Largo. That sat pic looks more Aug than October. 2013 is a weird year.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 649
538. LargoFl
9:29 AM GMT on October 18, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41838
537. LargoFl
9:23 AM GMT on October 18, 2013
Good Morning Folks!..Blogs Coffee Is now Perked.....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41838
536. MoltenIce
9:05 AM GMT on October 18, 2013
Seems to be ballooning in size.
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 784
535. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:30 AM GMT on October 18, 2013
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
15:00 PM JST October 18 2013
======================================

Sea Around Aleutians
At 6:00 AM UTC, Low, Former Wipha (964 hPa) located at 54.0N 179.0E. The low is reported as moving east at 25 knots.

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 18.0N 153.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving north at 10 knots.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46584
534. Jedkins01
7:16 AM GMT on October 18, 2013
Quoting 527. 1900hurricane:
I'm impressed.



The long range radar is amazing as well, its beautifully symmetrical with a smooth circular eyewall.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7992
533. Jedkins01
7:14 AM GMT on October 18, 2013
Quoting 525. EstherD:

The key word there is "associated".

It could be that physical activity results in improvements in heath and cognitive function. OR, it could be that those who have better physical health and cognitive functioning (for whatever reason) are more likely to engage in physical activity.

Unfortunately, the data from these studies are not good enough to help us decide between these two possibilities. Most of them are retrospective studies, and all of them suffer from self-selection bias, self-reporting/recollection bias, and other confounding factors.

But those data are the best we have, and may be the best we can get, so let's go with that. Can't hurt (we think) and might help (we hope!).


Well I honestly think common sense explains is pretty well. The brain is part of the physical body and thus needs nutrition and sustenance.

A great relationship that's easy to understand this works this way:

If a person who works out frequently but eats quite poor, that person will still be in much better physical shape and overall in better health than the person who doesn't workout at all. However, as time passes and aging sets in, the poor diet on average begins to take effect.

The same goes with the brain, you could equate a person who uses their brain a lot but neglects physical fitness as like the person who works out their brain but but doesn't give it good nutrition.

Thus obviously, if someone is physically fit but neglects training the body, he/she is obviously still limiting potential.

Given thus, optimum brain health n average would can be by training the brain and the body along with good diet.

Obviously the person who is both physically in poor health and neglects brain use will suffer the greatest deficiency in brain function with time.

Obviously these are broad generalizations and biology involves many more complicating factors, but I think that makes sense :)

BTW, the real question is whether body building is even actually healthy at all. Physical fitness and good diet sure is, but body building involves a lot of unnatural training and synthetic supplements, but this is really getting off topic from weather so I won't get into that :)
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7992
532. MoltenIce
7:08 AM GMT on October 18, 2013
JTWC now has it at 125 knots.

And it also looks like JMA is predicting a Cat 5 with a pressure of 920 hPa in 48-ish hours.
----

TYPHOON 26W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 14.2N 142.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 142.0E
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 784
531. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
6:59 AM GMT on October 18, 2013
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON FRANCISCO (T1327)
15:00 PM JST October 18 2013
=====================================

Near Marianas Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Francisco (940 hPa) located at 14.2N 142.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 7 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
180 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 16.4N 139.4E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 18.1N 137.1E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 20.7N 135.6E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46584
530. Astrometeor
6:52 AM GMT on October 18, 2013
Slight for small area of Texas tomorrow, mainly for hail.

Good night WU.

Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10449
529. OracleDeAtlantis
6:50 AM GMT on October 18, 2013
Quoting 528. MiamiHeat305:

if we picked it up and put it in the middle of the atlantic would generate more ace than we have seen this entire season..
Stop it! Just stop it!

We can't take it anymore ...

Lackohurricaneophobia is already rampant here.
Member Since: August 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 525
528. MiamiHeat305
6:32 AM GMT on October 18, 2013
Quoting 527. 1900hurricane:
I'm impressed.


if we picked it up and put it in the middle of the atlantic would generate more ace than we have seen this entire season..
Member Since: October 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 241
527. 1900hurricane
6:30 AM GMT on October 18, 2013
I'm impressed.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11694
526. MiamiHeat305
6:29 AM GMT on October 18, 2013
Quoting 518. ProgressivePulse:
First time I have seen this in my 10 years in SFL.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 180221
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1021 PM EDT THU OCT 17 2013

.UPDATE...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOCALLY STABLE ATMOSPHERE
WITH MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION.

ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. IN
GENERAL REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE TIDES ARE ABOUT A
HALF A FOOT TO NEAR ONE FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS. MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR REGIONAL
OBSERVATIONS AND LOCAL REPORTS OF ANY FLOOD IMPACTS IN FLOOD PRONE
AREAS.

60


This does not occur too often however astronomical high tides will occur when the sun the earth and moon are perfectly aligned also i believe a full moon enhances the tides even more. in Florida people living in the barrier islands like Miami Beach can be affected by this phenomena at high tide as the salt water will creep up and flood the roadways and businesses and homes in some cases. i heard today in the beach some businesses were using sandbags to protect the entrances..
Member Since: October 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 241
525. EstherD
6:04 AM GMT on October 18, 2013
Quoting 523. Jedkins01:
... Actually, physical fitness in general has been proven medically to be associated with better brain health and thus greater cognitive function, which you know, kinda makes sense being that the brain is part of the body after all :) ...

The key word there is "associated".

It could be that physical activity results in improvements in heath and cognitive function. OR, it could be that those who have better physical health and cognitive functioning (for whatever reason) are more likely to engage in physical activity.

Unfortunately, the data from these studies are not good enough to help us decide between these two possibilities. Most of them are retrospective studies, and all of them suffer from self-selection bias, self-reporting/recollection bias, and other confounding factors.

But those data are the best we have, and may be the best we can get, so let's go with that. Can't hurt (we think) and might help (we hope!).
Member Since: November 10, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 234
524. Walshy
5:52 AM GMT on October 18, 2013
Western NC...Southwest VA...from NWS Blacksburg.

Have a low probability of precipitation in with this wave but because of the temperatures at the surface and lower levels...have added snow or a rain snow mix in for precipitation type for this first time this season.
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 907
523. Jedkins01
5:40 AM GMT on October 18, 2013
Quoting 386. hydrus:
J.B. can be over bearing, but he does have a lot of experience and knowledge when it comes to weather. His resume isnt too shabby either, regardless of ones opinion about Accuweather.

From WIKI...where else..

Bastardi was born in Providence, Rhode Island. He spent his childhood moving frequently, first to Texas in 1960, then to Somers Point, New Jersey in 1965. His fascination with weather dates to his childhood; he reportedly carried an anemometer around with him as a teenager to measure wind speed. He enrolled at Penn State University, where he was a member of the varsity wrestling team. He graduated with a degree in meteorology on March 4, 1978. In 1992 at age 37, Bastardi married Jessica Jane Strunck, age 26, also a Penn State graduate. They have a son Garrett (born 1996) and a daughter Jessica (born 1998). In his free time, Bastardi enjoys bodybuilding, and has won the NABBA American Bodybuilding Championships.

Bastardi worked for AccuWeather from 1978 until February, 2011. He joined WeatherBell Analytics LLC as Chief Forecaster in March, 2011.



Contrary to what some depict, JB is actually a very knowledgeable meteorologist. Just because he does body building, that doesn't make him less intelligent or educated. Although to be fair, I think most people here(myself included) joke about his body building in a light matter I would hope, not anything serious.

Actually, physical fitness in general has been proven medically to be associated with better brain health and thus greater cognitive function, which you know, kinda makes sense being that the brain is part of the body after all :)


BTW, where JB really lacks, is that although he knows a lot about meteorology, sadly he doesn't apply it very well to forecasting and climate. He chooses to stubbornly want things to be a certain way despite his education.

This is far from an anomaly in education though, after all its simply hard work and skill, it doesn't necessarily have to do with honest perspective on life application.


Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7992
522. weatherbro
5:24 AM GMT on October 18, 2013
Florida's first significant front of the season will arrive Tuesday/Wednesday...Finally!!!
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1371
521. allancalderini
5:12 AM GMT on October 18, 2013
Quoting 513. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Core convection has wrapped more around a warming eye over the past hour. Looks to be intensifying again.

Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
520. 1900hurricane
5:10 AM GMT on October 18, 2013
Quoting 519. Astrometeor:


Is the eye getting smaller or is just me? Possible Eye-wall replacement cycle in the future?

Little bit, but that's to be expected with a strengthening storm. As for eyewall replacement, it's a little hard to tell with Francisco being so far from the radar site, but it does look like the eyewall is still being fed by bands so I wouldn't say one is imminent.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11694
519. Astrometeor
5:06 AM GMT on October 18, 2013
Quoting 517. 1900hurricane:

I'd agree with that. Looking at the radar out of Guam, the eyewall looks better defined than it ever has, despite the fact that Francisco has been moving away from the radar site for some time now.



Is the eye getting smaller or is just me? Possible Eye-wall replacement cycle in the future?
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10449
518. ProgressivePulse
5:04 AM GMT on October 18, 2013
First time I have seen this in my 10 years in SFL.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 180221
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1021 PM EDT THU OCT 17 2013

.UPDATE...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOCALLY STABLE ATMOSPHERE
WITH MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION.

ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. IN
GENERAL REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE TIDES ARE ABOUT A
HALF A FOOT TO NEAR ONE FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS. MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR REGIONAL
OBSERVATIONS AND LOCAL REPORTS OF ANY FLOOD IMPACTS IN FLOOD PRONE
AREAS.

60
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
517. 1900hurricane
4:59 AM GMT on October 18, 2013
Quoting 513. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Core convection has wrapped more around a warming eye over the past hour. Looks to be intensifying again.


I'd agree with that. Looking at the radar out of Guam, the eyewall looks better defined than it ever has, despite the fact that Francisco has been moving away from the radar site for some time now.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11694

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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