Category 2 Francisco Brushing Guam, and is a Long-Range Threat to Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:48 PM GMT on October 17, 2013

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Category 2 Typhoon Francisco is steadily intensifying over the warm waters of the Western Pacific about 160 miles southwest of Guam. The typhoon is expected to make its closest approach to Guam on Friday morning (local time), bringing sustained winds of 35 - 45 mph and heavy rain, as the storm heads north-northeast at 9 mph. Long range radar out of Guam and satellite loops show that Francisco is well-organized with an impressive area of heavy thunderstorms and a prominent eye. With warm waters that extend to great depth and low wind shear, continued strengthening is likely, and Francisco is forecast to become a major Category 4 typhoon by Saturday as it turns northwest towards Japan. Both the GFS and European models predict that Francisco will hit Japan on Wednesday or Thursday next week, though there is very high uncertainty in the storm's track that far into the future. Francisco's formation gives the Western Pacific 27 named storms so far in 2013, which is the average number of named storms for an entire year. The last time there were more than 27 tropical storms or typhoons in the Western Pacific was in 2004, when there were 32.


Figure 1. View of Typhoon Francisco from the long range radar out of Guam.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Francisco, taken at approximately 03 UTC on October 16, 2013. At the time, Francisco had top winds of about 85 mph. Image credit: NASA.

18 dead, 40+ missing in Japan after Typhoon Wipha
Typhoon Wipha roared past Japan on Tuesday as a Category 1 typhoon, bringing destructive winds and high rains that triggered flooding being blamed for at least 18 deaths. Most of the deaths occurred on Izu Oshima island, about 75 miles south of Tokyo. An astonishing 33.44" (824 mm) fell in just 23 hours on the island, triggering flash floods and mudslides that killed 17 people and left at least 40 missing. During one incredibly wet 6-hour period, 549.5 mm fell, setting a new 6-hour precipitation record for Japan. The previous record was 502.0 mm at Tarama, Okinawa, on April 28, 1988. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, the 24-hour total at Oshima Island was the third highest 24-hour rainfall for Japan on record; the record is 851.5 mm at Yanase (Kochi Prefecture) on 19 July 2011, and 2nd place is the 844 mm that fell at Takeshi (Nara) on 1 August 1982. Wipha is the fourth named storm to hit Japan so far in 2013, and the deadliest typhoon to hit Japan since Typhoon Tokage of October 2004. An average of 2.8 tropical storms or typhoons per year hit Japan during the period 1951 - 2003. Japan's record busiest year was 2004, when ten named storms hit, six of them at Category 1 or higher strength. Jeffrey Hayes has put together a nice summary of Japan's typhoon history.

The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days. NHC is giving 10% odds that an area of disturbed weather (Invest 99L) about 200 miles north-northeast of Bermuda headed northeast out to sea, will develop. During the last few days of October and the first week of November, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is predicted to transition into a phase that will bring an increase in upward-moving air over the Atlantic, boosting the odds of tropical storm formation. The most likely area for formation will be in the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 159. Doppler22:
Courtesy of Justin Berk

"One good thing about Government Shutdowns... If you are a winter lover....
Snowfall in Baltimore during winters following government shutdowns is tilted ABOVE NORMAL.

*50% were WAY ABOVE NORMAL
*Notice 1995-1996= The 2nd all time winter snowfall (measured at BWI)
**THERE IS AN ERROR IN THE GRAPH-
'81-'82= 25.5"
'82-'83= 35.6"
'83-'84= 14.5" - I will post an updated graph later***

Note that some years had multiple shutdowns.
1977 (3)
1982 (2)
1984 (2)
1995 (2)"

img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
I read that earlier on CWG.It was just a coincidence,especially the way this winter is looking.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17487
Short vacation hello from me to WU with some news from Greece:



The popular tourist destination of Rhodes was hit by a powerful storm on October 17. Trees were downed, buildings damaged and streets flooded by the strong winds and heavy rain. This footage shows a funnel cloud forming and circulating off the coast. Credit: Youtube/Stelios Koukias.

Source
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165. eddye
wow looks like low 50 and upper 40 for south fla cant wait
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Quoting 150. SFLWeatherman:
CMC look at all the cold in FL!:) Going to love this!!!!!!:)
Hopefully this pans out and we see some snow in Florida this winter season to actually give us something weather wise to talk about and make up for the hurricane season or lack thereof.
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On this date in 1947, a United States Air Force plane dropped 80 pounds of ice into Hurricane King off the Florida coastline in the first ever attempt by man to control a tropical cyclone. No change in intensity was noted. Interestingly enough, however, the cyclone veered west abruptly and subsequently made landfall near the Georgia-South Carolina border. The scientists conducting the experiment stated that it was their fault, though other scientists noted that hurricanes had taken a similar track in the past.

And now you know.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32532
28th-30th. Stormy Thanksgiving holiday: rain,sleet and wet SNOW from Virginia, Maryland northward.
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Will Baltimore get a bad winter this year ?
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Courtesy of Justin Berk

"One good thing about Government Shutdowns... If you are a winter lover....
Snowfall in Baltimore during winters following government shutdowns is tilted ABOVE NORMAL.

*50% were WAY ABOVE NORMAL
*Notice 1995-1996= The 2nd all time winter snowfall (measured at BWI)
**THERE IS AN ERROR IN THE GRAPH-
'81-'82= 25.5"
'82-'83= 35.6"
'83-'84= 14.5" - I will post an updated graph later***

Note that some years had multiple shutdowns.
1977 (3)
1982 (2)
1984 (2)
1995 (2)"

img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3821
Quoting 149. CaribBoy:
Localized afternoon thunderstorms in Martinique, Dominica and Guadeloupe.




And no rain in St. Barth?
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Quoting 152. 1900hurricane:
I love having a radar so close to Francisco. Looks like a solid typhoon, although a little more internal organization (eyewall/moat/innermost bands) could be done before he has the chance to really take off.

img


One day in the future, and if they will ever decide to upload the images for public viewing, we might be looking at similar images from the tail section of any of the Noaa P-3 Orions with the Doppler in the tail when they are in or near an Atlantic storm hundreds of miles away from land based doppler.

That would be super cool if it ever became routine over the next few seasons.
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After looking at microwave imagery, it looks like my thoughts are confirmed. Francisco may be about to begin an eyewall replacement cycle.

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155. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON FRANCISCO (T1327)
3:00 AM JST October 18 2013
=====================================

Near Marianas Island

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Francisco (965 hPa) located at 13.0N 142.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 8 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
150 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 16.1N 141.1E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Marianas Island
48 HRS: 18.1N 138.2E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 20.4N 136.0E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan
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Quoting 109. StormTrackerScott:


Not so fast Jed very complex patten in place so buckle in.


You are just too much, buddy. :)

It is amazing how often someone can see the glass as 3/4 to 7/8'ths full for an unprecedented rainy stormy calamity for FL. Without a TRACE of anything other than normal rainy season/fall troughiness ACTUALLY verifying. And yet still with the hype-eddy-hype-hype of ANY silly model output solutions...
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Quoting 138. FLWaterFront:


Too bad you weren't around back in the 70s and early 80s, when that often happened (no kidding!) about a month before that.

Go check out the weather records for Florida in September of 1981, for example.
1989 was a disaster for Palm Beach county... 27 degrees. Florida Power and Light couldn't handle it.
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I love having a radar so close to Francisco. Looks like a solid typhoon, although a little more internal organization (eyewall/moat/innermost bands) could be done before he has the chance to really take off.



*EDIT: although some of the perceived lack of organization may have to do with Francisco traversing the occasional beam scattering areas. Either way, still a solid cat 2/maybe low end cat 3 equivalent typhoon in my opinion.
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As usual...

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CMC look at all the cold in FL!:) Going to love this!!!!!!:)
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Localized afternoon thunderstorms in Martinique, Dominica and Guadeloupe.


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Quoting 110. StormTrackerScott:

well, that sucks...i really wanted some rain in California
Member Since: October 6, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 827
Speaking of 79' winter weather, while we here in Wisconsin "usually" do well in removing snow, the same was not the case for Chicago in 79'. Mother Nature was fighting dirty that year though. Remember, I think it was in 2008, here in south central Wisconsin 90/94 was shut down due to a nasty blizzard and thousands were stuck for almost a day. Even the best snow removal equipment is no match for the worst Mother Nature can throw at you.
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Quoting 144. washingtonian115:

good thingmost of the rain is staying off shore.All that rain would only cause of more flooding problems.Something we DON'T need.It's been gloomy here today as well.That yellowballis gone agaiun.I thinkit's called a sun?.
Yeap. That is correct. Good thing you still know what the sun is.
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Quoting 112. StormTrackerScott:
This is some trough folks. Wow if this keeps up then we are in for one heck of a Winter & Spring. Blizzards, tornado outbreaks, you name it we may have this winter.



I have to jump on this one. So very many times the forecast
pattern of the winter turns out to be the verifying pattern
of the week. (Just being humorous but I remember as a student at PSU, the big
trough that set up in the East the first ten days of October 1979
and the talk of a fourth incredibly cold winter.. it turned out
to be an unusually cold first ten days of October in an otherwise
unremarkable winter of 79-80 (except it was record snowy in
the VA tidewater area with unusually low snow totals in the northeast) )

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Quoting 110. StormTrackerScott:

Good thing most of the rain is staying off shore.All that rain would only cause of more flooding problems.Something we DON'T need.It's been gloomy here today as well.That yellowballis gone agaiun.I thinkit's called a sun?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17487
143. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
21:00 PM JST October 16 2013
======================================

Sea East Of Kamchatka
At 12:00 PM UTC, Low, Former Wipha (964 hPa) located at 53.0N 164.0E. The low is reported as moving east northeast at 25 knots.

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1010 hPa) located at 15.0N 153.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving north at 10 knots.
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Quoting 92. SFLWeatherman:
12Z GFS look at FL!!!!!!!!!!!:)

Lol I'm gonna be enjoying this
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/plugged-in/20 13/10/17/do-americans-understand-energy-not-really /

Sample question:
"Which country do you believe is the largest foreign supplier of oil for the U.S."
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fall time!!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 50 Comments: 82401
Quoting 107. Jedkins01:


It looks like quite a cold spell for north Florida, I'm set to go camping northeast of Mariana FL near the Florida/Georgia border next weekend since my birthday is on the 25th. Looks like its going to be refreshing and crisp if model trends continue...

I've noticed that we get our first real deep trough into Florida bringing colder air almost every year near or around October 25th.


Too bad you weren't around back in the 70s and early 80s, when that often happened (no kidding!) about a month before that.

Go check out the weather records for Florida in September of 1981, for example.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU OCT 17 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC
NEAR CENTRAL AMERICA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Dancing water vapor:


Dancing Meatwad:


If you look closely the water vapor even has two eyes and a mouth.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 17 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM IS MERGING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER COLDER WATER...AND SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting 128. PedleyCA:


Time to make sure the snow removal equipment is in tiptop shape!!!!


We always do.
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Quoting 127. Torito:



Yes. Best post today. :3

Have a bigger swirly.



I think the extratropical lows this year have looked far better than the Atlantic hurricanes.

But remember, you don't always need a hurricane for mass destruction.
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Quoting 46. Patrap:
There is no evidence currently that AGW is contributing to stronger Typhoons, Cyclones, Hurricanes etc.

It's not so much that there is no evidence, it's more than the evidence is still inconclusive, with different studies leaning different directions. That is why it's treated as somewhat controversial in summary reports.

In the last 5-10 years, there have been several papers by Emanuel suggesting a link to intensity (via Hurricane Dissipation Index). There have been some studies suggesting fewer total storms, but stronger storms when we have them.*
As always, we have to be careful not to take the observations of one individual year, in one ocean, as an indicator of a long term trend, especially with someone with as many variables as tropical activity.

*This is somewhat similar to what the accelerated hydrologic cycle is expected to do in portions of the continental U.S., with longer drought periods, but more rainfall when it occurs.
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Quoting 129. StormTrackerScott:
I am starting to wonder if we are seeing the players coming together for another Sandy type set up when a tropical system mixes with a Polar low across the Midwest. Looking like a very interesting late October & early November in the cards.

2" PWATS going all the way up the eastern seaboard.
Ya that could be a big snow event for me if that if there is plenty of cold air
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Quoting 124. Torito:





Yea, Carroll county calls for it. :P
Weatherunderground and the weather channel do.
Link
Same
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I am starting to wonder if we are seeing the players coming together for another Sandy type set up when a tropical system mixes with a Polar low across the Midwest. Looking like a very interesting late October & early November in the cards.

2" PWATS going all the way up the eastern seaboard.
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Quoting 125. FunnelVortex:


I'm talking about Wisconsin.


Time to make sure the snow removal equipment is in tiptop shape!!!!
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Quoting 118. FunnelVortex:





Yes. Best post today. :3

Have a bigger swirly.

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For me 36 degrees on 10/24 so maybe frost too for me and since 32 degrees maybe some flurries if there is moisture.
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Quoting 122. Climate175:
Im talking about my state Maryland


I'm talking about Wisconsin.
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Quoting 123. Climate175:
What weather station or website said ?



Quoting 122. Climate175:
Im talking about my state Maryland


Yea, Carroll county calls for it. :P
Weatherunderground and the weather channel do.
Link
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Quoting 121. Torito:


calling for a low of 32 degrees on 10/24 for me. So yes, likely frosty.
What weather station or website said ?
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Quoting 120. FunnelVortex:


We already had a couple of frosts.
Im talking about my state Maryland
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Quoting 117. Climate175:
Temps gonna be in the 30s next week first frost maybe ?


calling for a low of 32 degrees on 10/24 for me. So yes, likely frosty.
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Quoting 117. Climate175:
Temps gonna be in the 30s next week first frost maybe ?


We already had a couple of frosts. Freezing fog this morning.
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Quoting 117. Climate175:
Temps gonna be in the 30s next week first frost maybe ?


Many areas 20's and 30's for highs across the Midwest.
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Quoting 116. Torito:
swirly keeps on swirling.



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Quoting 116. Torito:
swirly keeps on swirling.

Temps gonna be in the 30s next week first frost maybe ?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.