Category 2 Francisco Brushing Guam, and is a Long-Range Threat to Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:48 PM GMT on October 17, 2013

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Category 2 Typhoon Francisco is steadily intensifying over the warm waters of the Western Pacific about 160 miles southwest of Guam. The typhoon is expected to make its closest approach to Guam on Friday morning (local time), bringing sustained winds of 35 - 45 mph and heavy rain, as the storm heads north-northeast at 9 mph. Long range radar out of Guam and satellite loops show that Francisco is well-organized with an impressive area of heavy thunderstorms and a prominent eye. With warm waters that extend to great depth and low wind shear, continued strengthening is likely, and Francisco is forecast to become a major Category 4 typhoon by Saturday as it turns northwest towards Japan. Both the GFS and European models predict that Francisco will hit Japan on Wednesday or Thursday next week, though there is very high uncertainty in the storm's track that far into the future. Francisco's formation gives the Western Pacific 27 named storms so far in 2013, which is the average number of named storms for an entire year. The last time there were more than 27 tropical storms or typhoons in the Western Pacific was in 2004, when there were 32.


Figure 1. View of Typhoon Francisco from the long range radar out of Guam.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Francisco, taken at approximately 03 UTC on October 16, 2013. At the time, Francisco had top winds of about 85 mph. Image credit: NASA.

18 dead, 40+ missing in Japan after Typhoon Wipha
Typhoon Wipha roared past Japan on Tuesday as a Category 1 typhoon, bringing destructive winds and high rains that triggered flooding being blamed for at least 18 deaths. Most of the deaths occurred on Izu Oshima island, about 75 miles south of Tokyo. An astonishing 33.44" (824 mm) fell in just 23 hours on the island, triggering flash floods and mudslides that killed 17 people and left at least 40 missing. During one incredibly wet 6-hour period, 549.5 mm fell, setting a new 6-hour precipitation record for Japan. The previous record was 502.0 mm at Tarama, Okinawa, on April 28, 1988. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, the 24-hour total at Oshima Island was the third highest 24-hour rainfall for Japan on record; the record is 851.5 mm at Yanase (Kochi Prefecture) on 19 July 2011, and 2nd place is the 844 mm that fell at Takeshi (Nara) on 1 August 1982. Wipha is the fourth named storm to hit Japan so far in 2013, and the deadliest typhoon to hit Japan since Typhoon Tokage of October 2004. An average of 2.8 tropical storms or typhoons per year hit Japan during the period 1951 - 2003. Japan's record busiest year was 2004, when ten named storms hit, six of them at Category 1 or higher strength. Jeffrey Hayes has put together a nice summary of Japan's typhoon history.

The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days. NHC is giving 10% odds that an area of disturbed weather (Invest 99L) about 200 miles north-northeast of Bermuda headed northeast out to sea, will develop. During the last few days of October and the first week of November, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is predicted to transition into a phase that will bring an increase in upward-moving air over the Atlantic, boosting the odds of tropical storm formation. The most likely area for formation will be in the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.

Jeff Masters

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I don't know if "laminar flow" is the right word, but I always find it fascinating to see pockets of wet or dry air forming thin, contiguous bands, such as the thin band of dry air that stretches from the east Pacific all the way to the Colorado/New Mexico border.

(Click to animate)
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Geez, Nea, are any of your ex-girlfriends NOT on this blog? ;-)

--------------------------------------



Warnings for Larimer and Boulder Counties Between 6000 and 9000 Feet

... Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 9 PM this evening to noon MDT Friday...

* timing... snow will begin falling in the higher mountains late this afternoon and may become heavy at times overnight. Snow will also spread eastward over the northern Front Range foothills during the evening and then continue through Friday morning.

* Snow accumulations... 3 to 7 inches of snow are expected by Friday morning... heaviest across Larimer County. Lower amounts will be over mountain valleys and further south across Summit County.

* Wind/visibility... northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.
Visibilities may drop to less than a half mile in moderate snow during the overnight hours.
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Quoting 211. snowballing:
Little do some people know, daily fluctuations in the CPC maps have nothing to do with CC/AGW. I love how posting cold graphs and graphs that display above average temperatures are immediately deemed solid evidence of the way they think what the climate is doing. I think that is one of my top ten on here.
Have you any proof whatsoever that anyone here has ever posted a CPC temperature anomaly map and "deemed it solid evidence" that would either prove or disprove climate change theory? I've been here a few years, and have never seen that happen, so I look forward to seeing your corroborating detail. Thanks!
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In Austin:

We had rain.
Then a cold front.
Now 75 degrees and sunny.
That is all. Have a great day everyone :)
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213. VR46L
Quoting 208. Neapolitan:
Smiley faces work, too. Like this:

;-)


OMG !! The Rumour , Wow !!! I sure got that wrong ....


speaking of Jokes 99L on Navy site

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Quoting 203. Neapolitan:
Hey, if you'd like to see me post something, just WU mail me and ask. I'm always willing to oblige my loyal fans. I'll also be happy to send you a signed 8"x10" glossy, if you'd like; just send me an SASE. Thanks, as always, for your keen interest in me. It's the constant admiration of people like you that keeps me doing what I do. ;-)
Very cool Nea, glad you have a sense of humor...Thinking about an 8"x10" of you right next to my signed photo of Ozzie Osbourne. I'll let you know.
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Long story short, the graph below maintains a robust upper-level circulation signature with the MJO. This means we might still have to watch the tropics in late October and early November. The GFS is taking note of this, showing a decent tropical cyclone in the northwestern Caribbean.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31439
Quoting 206. VR46L:


Maybe you should do like ,this morning and post rimshot so we would all know its a joke ...
Smiley faces work, too. Like this:

;-)
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Quoting 201. Civicane49:


Francisco seems to be just "Chillin"... At the moment.
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206. VR46L
Quoting 189. Naga5000:


So was mine, your joke detector needs new batteries. (this is a joke).


Maybe you should do like ,this morning and post rimshot so we would all know its a joke ...
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205. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
3:00 AM JST October 17 2013
======================================

Sea East Of Kamchatka
At 18:00 PM UTC, Low, Former Wipha (964 hPa) located at 53.0N 169.0E. The low is reported as moving east at 25 knots.

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 16.0N 154.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving north at 10 knots.
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GFS..the second wave appears colder than the first.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20493
Quoting 178. luvtogolf:

I've been waiting for Nea to post that.
Hey, if you'd like to see me post something, just WU mail me and ask. I'm always willing to oblige my loyal fans. I'll also be happy to send you a signed 8"x10" glossy, if you'd like; just send me an SASE. Thanks, as always, for your keen interest in me. It's the constant admiration of people like you that keeps me doing what I do. ;-)
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Quoting 200. hydrus:
Euro on board with the forecast cold snap.
Sure looks like a very "cold" snap for this time of year..
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Euro on board with the forecast cold snap.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20493
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Odds are good, despite this season being lackluster that we will see a storm in November, if we consider the trend of every month in the season having at least 1 named storm.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7473
Quoting 192. Llamaluvr:
You sound as if you doubt StormTrackerScott??!!


Nice try to stir the pot. He made an observation as did I. Simple as that. Nothing going on here.

88 in St Aug this afternoon FWIW
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Quoting 193. luvtogolf:


Thank you.
You are welcome... He was very serious... Tried to back out saying he was kidding... So many hipocrits...Tired of it
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Here
84°F
Partly Cloudy

Heat Index: 90 °F

Quoting 190. StormTrackerScott:


90 here in Longwood with a heat index of 95.
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Quoting 181. StAugustineFL:
Probabilities of below average temperatures are not the same as departures from normal. Will it be cooler than normal? Sure looks that way! Will it be record-shattering October cold? Probably not.


20 to 30 degrees below average is just cool. LOL!
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
Quoting 186. PalmBeachWeather:
Oh please........Grow up...It was an obvious joke... Geeeez


Thank you.
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Quoting 181. StAugustineFL:
Probabilities of below average temperatures are not the same as departures from normal. Will it be cooler than normal? Sure looks that way! Will it be record-shattering October cold? Probably not.
You sound as if you doubt StormTrackerScott??!!
Member Since: July 8, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 197
Quoting 189. Naga5000:


So was mine, your joke detector needs new batteries. (this is a joke).
.....Right..
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Quoting 185. Naga5000:


It's 86 and overcast right now in Orlando. I'm done with summer and done with summer part 2 (which are the slightly below 90 temps we get before our next season of "kinda winter"). Bring on the cooler temps.


90 here in Longwood with a heat index of 95.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
Quoting 186. PalmBeachWeather:
Oh please........Grow up...It was an obvious joke... Geeeez


So was mine, your joke detector needs new batteries. (this is a joke).
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188. txjac
Quoting 185. Naga5000:


It's 86 and overcast right now in Orlando. I'm done with summer and done with summer part 2 (which are the slightly below 90 temps we get before our next season of "kinda winter"). Bring on the cooler temps.


Ready for the cooler weather too! Currently about 78F and beautiful blue skies.
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Quoting 177. StormTrackerScott:
Some models even showing snow all the way down to Tennessee.
What about maryland ??
Member Since: September 24, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 3398
Quoting 180. Naga5000:


Your obsession is quite worrisome. You may want to see someone regarding it. TIA.
Oh please........Grow up...It was an obvious joke... Geeeez
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Quoting 183. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Looks like the heat will be needed next week. :)



It's 86 and overcast right now in Orlando. I'm done with summer and done with summer part 2 (which are the slightly below 90 temps we get before our next season of "kinda winter"). Bring on the cooler temps.
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184. txjac
Quoting 182. barbamz:


Thanks tjax. At least I'll post tome pics on my blog when I'm back home. This is my current view from the vacation flat (o.K. not current as it's night, but in daylight).



Ciao for now.


Thanks for sharing ...makes me feel like I am there. I spent some time a few years back in Celle and fell in love. Want to come back and explore more. My father's side of the family is from Germany so it's always held a place in my heart
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Looks like the heat will be needed next week. :)

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31439
Quoting 174. txjac:


Beautiful pictures.
Wish I could be walking through the woods in Germany ..some day as its on my bucket list


Thanks tjax. At least I'll post some pics on my blog when I'm back home. This is my current view from the vacation flat (o.K. not current as it's night, but in daylight).



Ciao for now.
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Probabilities of below average temperatures are not the same as departures from normal. Will it be cooler than normal? Sure looks that way! Will it be record-shattering October cold? Probably not.
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Quoting 178. luvtogolf:


I've been waiting for Nea to post that. Ya right...


Your obsession is quite worrisome. You may want to see someone regarding it. TIA.
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Quoting 175. StormTrackerScott:
6-10 day. Record shattering cold on the way. Maybe even historic for October!



I always like seeing the pattern of warm weather up in Alaska when cold air plunges down into the U.S.
Classic artic plunge of the jet stream.
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Quoting 175. StormTrackerScott:
6-10 day. Record shattering cold on the way. Maybe even historic for October!



I've been waiting for Nea to post that. Ya right...
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Some models even showing snow all the way down to Tennessee.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
Quoting 170. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Beware of faulty, flaky Facebook weather forecasts
Lol.I never go to Facebook for weather imput.
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6-10 day. Record shattering cold on the way. Maybe even historic for October!

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
174. txjac
Quoting 173. barbamz:
German Spiegel today has an impressive photo gallery of tornado photographer Mitch Dobrowner. Click on the image to go there:



Have a nice evening everybody as I'm recovering from todays walk in stormy german woods with very historic sites :)


Beautiful pictures.
Wish I could be walking through the woods in Germany ..some day as its on my bucket list
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German Spiegel today has an impressive photo gallery of tornado photographer Mitch Dobrowner. Click on the image to go there:



Have a nice evening everybody as I'm recovering from todays walk in stormy german woods with very historic sites :)
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Interesting Extended Forecast Discussion today, sort of went philosophical.


Excerpt:

IT IS USEFUL TO VIEW THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS--ECMWF, GFS, GEM
GLOBAL, ET CETERA--AS SOUPED-UP ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, AND AS SUCH, ARE
PRONE TO RUN-TO-RUN VOLATILITY. THE BROADER VIEW OF THE ENSEMBLE
SYSTEM HAS AFFORDED THE SCIENCE OF METEOROLOGY A REALITY CHECK NOT
AVAILABLE IN MOST OPERATIONAL SETTINGS EVEN A DECADE AGO. THE
DREADED FLIP-FLOPPING OF THOSE DAYS CAN NOW BE LARGELY MITIGATED
THROUGH THE WIDE LENS OF THESE SOLUTION "SUITES." FURTHERMORE,
EVEN D-MODEL/D-TIME TYPE ASSESSMENTS HAVE LOST MUCH OF THEIR
DIAGNOSTIC MEANING WHEN CONSIDERED AGAINST THE WHOLE BACKDROP OF
ENSEMBLES.
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Beware of faulty, flaky Facebook weather forecasts
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31439
18z ATCF file had Francisco up to a 125mph cat 3.

26W FRANCISCO 131017 1800 13.2N 142.8E WPAC 110 941

Looking more and more likely that this will peak as a category 5 system.
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Quoting 167. washingtonian115:
I read that earlier on CWG.It was just a coincidence,especially the way this winter is looking.
Ya the winter will be a surprise let me just tell you that
Member Since: September 24, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 3398
Quoting 159. Doppler22:
Courtesy of Justin Berk

"One good thing about Government Shutdowns... If you are a winter lover....
Snowfall in Baltimore during winters following government shutdowns is tilted ABOVE NORMAL.

*50% were WAY ABOVE NORMAL
*Notice 1995-1996= The 2nd all time winter snowfall (measured at BWI)
**THERE IS AN ERROR IN THE GRAPH-
'81-'82= 25.5"
'82-'83= 35.6"
'83-'84= 14.5" - I will post an updated graph later***

Note that some years had multiple shutdowns.
1977 (3)
1982 (2)
1984 (2)
1995 (2)"

img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
I read that earlier on CWG.It was just a coincidence,especially the way this winter is looking.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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