Category 2 Francisco Brushing Guam, and is a Long-Range Threat to Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:48 PM GMT on October 17, 2013

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Category 2 Typhoon Francisco is steadily intensifying over the warm waters of the Western Pacific about 160 miles southwest of Guam. The typhoon is expected to make its closest approach to Guam on Friday morning (local time), bringing sustained winds of 35 - 45 mph and heavy rain, as the storm heads north-northeast at 9 mph. Long range radar out of Guam and satellite loops show that Francisco is well-organized with an impressive area of heavy thunderstorms and a prominent eye. With warm waters that extend to great depth and low wind shear, continued strengthening is likely, and Francisco is forecast to become a major Category 4 typhoon by Saturday as it turns northwest towards Japan. Both the GFS and European models predict that Francisco will hit Japan on Wednesday or Thursday next week, though there is very high uncertainty in the storm's track that far into the future. Francisco's formation gives the Western Pacific 27 named storms so far in 2013, which is the average number of named storms for an entire year. The last time there were more than 27 tropical storms or typhoons in the Western Pacific was in 2004, when there were 32.


Figure 1. View of Typhoon Francisco from the long range radar out of Guam.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Francisco, taken at approximately 03 UTC on October 16, 2013. At the time, Francisco had top winds of about 85 mph. Image credit: NASA.

18 dead, 40+ missing in Japan after Typhoon Wipha
Typhoon Wipha roared past Japan on Tuesday as a Category 1 typhoon, bringing destructive winds and high rains that triggered flooding being blamed for at least 18 deaths. Most of the deaths occurred on Izu Oshima island, about 75 miles south of Tokyo. An astonishing 33.44" (824 mm) fell in just 23 hours on the island, triggering flash floods and mudslides that killed 17 people and left at least 40 missing. During one incredibly wet 6-hour period, 549.5 mm fell, setting a new 6-hour precipitation record for Japan. The previous record was 502.0 mm at Tarama, Okinawa, on April 28, 1988. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, the 24-hour total at Oshima Island was the third highest 24-hour rainfall for Japan on record; the record is 851.5 mm at Yanase (Kochi Prefecture) on 19 July 2011, and 2nd place is the 844 mm that fell at Takeshi (Nara) on 1 August 1982. Wipha is the fourth named storm to hit Japan so far in 2013, and the deadliest typhoon to hit Japan since Typhoon Tokage of October 2004. An average of 2.8 tropical storms or typhoons per year hit Japan during the period 1951 - 2003. Japan's record busiest year was 2004, when ten named storms hit, six of them at Category 1 or higher strength. Jeffrey Hayes has put together a nice summary of Japan's typhoon history.

The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days. NHC is giving 10% odds that an area of disturbed weather (Invest 99L) about 200 miles north-northeast of Bermuda headed northeast out to sea, will develop. During the last few days of October and the first week of November, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is predicted to transition into a phase that will bring an increase in upward-moving air over the Atlantic, boosting the odds of tropical storm formation. The most likely area for formation will be in the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 262. GiovanniDatoli:

Tell me about it. I think people misread the colors on the map as how much colder or warmer it will be when that isn't true at all. Instead, it's the probability it will be cooler or warmer than historic averages. So the deep shade of purple indicates an 80% it will be cooler for some areas of the Midwest, but that doesn't necessarily mean record cold at all. It could be indicating a very strong likelyhood that maybe it's only 5 degrees below normal for that timeframe.

Exactly. It's the percent chance of it being in that particular tercile (either below normal or above normal). The "leftover %" is the probability of the other two terciles. We went over this in March with some individuals, although then they were using a particularly cold snap, to claim that it would be one of the coldest Marches on record. Through arithmetic we were able to show just how cold the country would have to average for such a record, yet the claims continued. When all was said and done, we had a "near normal" March (middle tercile). In fact, March 2013 was barely below the 1900-2000 average for the CONUS.

So, learning from this, we should be cautious, and have substantial quantitative evidence, to begin making forecasts of "historic" or "among ___ on record." By definition, they are not common events.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3190
Quoting 264. GiovanniDatoli:

Ignore. She comes on and spouts silliness from time to time.
Yes Giovanni, you're absolutely correct. I should ignore such posts, and my lame attempt at humor adds nothing of value to this blog's comment section. Thanks for the reality reminder! I deleted the lame humor comment.
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Quoting 235. PensacolaDoug:


Have you any proof whatsoever that JB said "Karen could be a monster"? I read his blog everyday and I look forward to seeing your corroborating detail. Thanks!
I'm not going to lie.That was funny..Anyway it has been sprinkling on and off.The forecast was for sunshien today.Oh well.I look forward to the yellow ball returning in the sky soon.
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Quoting 245. DonnieBwkGA:


I didn't know they named storms in 1947. Why did they name it King when it was the 8th storm of the season? I know that Landsea has revised its strength upwards to a pressure of 966 mb at landfall. I'll find the link for that.

The US Weather Bureau began experimenting naming hurricanes in conjunction with the military. They named this one King. However, names were not officially incorporated into public advisories until 1950.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31859
Quoting 257. FunnelVortex:


And they were names like "Cat" and "Fox" right?
Yes.

I think it's by 1952 or maybe 1953 (though I maybe wrong on both accounts) that they started to adopt an alphabetical naming system.
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Quoting 175. StormTrackerScott:
6-10 day. Record shattering cold on the way. Maybe even historic for October!


You said the same thing for this past March.
Based upon what evidence, other than there being an 80% chance of temperatures being in the lower tercile (below normal) as predicted by the CPC, do you think we will have a "historic" cold snap for this October?
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3190
Quoting 255. MoltenIce:
I don't think they started naming tropical cyclones in the Atlantic until 1950. And even by then, names are not based on an alphabetical list we have today but instead on the US Army's old phonetic alphabet system.


And they were names like "Cat" and "Fox" right?
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Quoting 246. FunnelVortex:


1947 was a different time.
I don't think they started naming tropical cyclones in the Atlantic until 1950. And even by then, names are not based on an alphabetical list we have today but instead on the US Army's old phonetic alphabet system.
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I only go by official names ;)
Member Since: June 29, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 2012
252. VR46L
Quoting 247. PlazaRed:
I note there is an object code named 99L off the East coast of the USA!
Has this been declared harmless and as such ignored as nobody is raving about it!




Nuff Said :)
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Quoting 249. DonnieBwkGA:


But I thought the NHC started naming storms in 1950.


Officially naming storms.
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Quoting 246. FunnelVortex:


1947 was a different time.


But I thought the NHC started naming storms in 1950.
Member Since: June 29, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 2012
Quoting 229. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'd say it depends on what the models are forecasting. That map from the CPC is probabilistic -- the dark blue indicates that, with a high confidence, there will be below-average temperatures. The dark red indicates that, with a high confidence, there will be above-average temperatures. The degree of above and below average cannot be inferred. :)
Exactly - thanks for pointing out that these maps are made using basic scientific meteorology procedures and standards. I was just pointing out the blindness of some people to the fact that cold and heat anomalies are often balancing acts The pattern in the maps look like typical results of the lazy, loopy variant of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and the persistence of these loops will depend on whether there are blocking highs in place.

It's obvious that many people at this blog's comment section are parochial in their thinking and have primarily a local concern regarding weather. They don't seem to care much about weather in the rest of the world or about climate in general. OTOH, some of us have a great curiosity about weather events and patterns around the world, and about climate and its relationship to weather.
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I note there is an object code named 99L off the East coast of the USA!
Has this been declared harmless and as such ignored as nobody is raving about it!
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2072
Quoting 245. DonnieBwkGA:


I didn't know they named storms in 1947. Why did they name it King when it was the 8th storm of the season?


1947 was a different time.
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Quoting 163. TropicalAnalystwx13:
On this date in 1947, a United States Air Force plane dropped 80 pounds of ice into Hurricane King off the Florida coastline in the first ever attempt by man to control a tropical cyclone. No change in intensity was noted. Interestingly enough, however, the cyclone veered west abruptly and subsequently made landfall near the Georgia-South Carolina border. The scientists conducting the experiment stated that it was their fault, though other scientists noted that hurricanes had taken a similar track in the past.

And now you know.



I didn't know they named storms in 1947. Why did they name it King when it was the 8th storm of the season? I know that Landsea has revised its strength upwards to a pressure of 966 mb at landfall. I'll find the link for that.
Member Since: June 29, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 2012
ncstorm is also correct.



Raleigh, NC

June -0.6 degrees
July -0.9 degrees
Aug. -2.5 degrees

Summer average -1.3
Member Since: June 29, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 2012
Quoting 232. Neapolitan:
So far, record highs and record lows are running neck and neck, with highs outnumbering lows by just 1.01 to 1, due in large part to an anonymously cold period in late spring. However, September saw record highs outnumbering record lows by 5.85 to 1 across the US, while "warm" weeks overall have outnumbered "cold" ones by 23-19.

temps


Well if spring was really cold, is making note of September record highs outnumbering record lows 5 to 1 any more significant?

I would say no. In fact neither the cold in spring or the warmth in September is a great enough time scale to say anything about a short term climate trend.

I'm not saying its not interesting to observe, but I don't think it matters until the yearly climate averages are scaled, and frankly I don't think record highs and lows are good for looking at climate trends since they compose a very small fraction of temperature data to compute a climate.

That doesn't mean they aren't important, but I'm sure you see my point.

Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7383
Quoting 238. georgevandenberghe:


Summer in the DC area averaged above normal temperatures. August
was cooler than normal however but a warm June and July more than compensated.


not here in NC..I've posted here several times from my NWS discussions where they stated we barely had a summer..we even broke daily record lows in July..weird isn't it..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15053
Quoting 226. TimSoCal:


...not to mention which part of the country you live in.
Tim, I retired from Sonoma County in NorCal to the mountains of western Panama 1.5 years ago. It seldom goes over 80 or under 60 deg F here at 4,500' elevation year around. However, we have had three days of longer periods of rain with widespread gray skies instead of the more common pop-up t-storms - and temps that don't reach 70 deg F during the day with lows of about 62 at night.

Two Panamanian friends told me recently - without knowing that I am very interested in AGW/CC - that it used to be cooler here during the April-November rainy season. They both said independently and spontaneously that this kind of cooler days with longer, more sustained rains, used to be common before "global warming." This was with no prompting or leading questions from me.

Of course, I rely on hard science for my information on AGW/CC and found these anecdotal comments interesting, but do not consider them as hard evidence of anything.
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Quoting 238. georgevandenberghe:


Summer in the DC area averaged above normal temperatures. August
was cooler than normal however but a warm June and July more than compensated.


You're right.


Washington DC

+1.3 degrees June
+1.4 degrees July
-1.0 degrees Aug

Summer +0.6 degrees.
Member Since: June 29, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 2012
Quoting 236. ncstorm:


with barely a summer for some of the east coast especially in my area that dosent even surprise me the CPC maps are trending colder temps every day..

I already had a coat/jacket out this month..some of yall will need to head to the closet and get yours..



Summer in the DC area averaged above normal temperatures. August
was cooler than normal however but a warm June and July more than compensated.
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Quoting 230. DonnieBwkGA:
It's happened before. Oct 19-20 1989 saw record snows for so early across the Ohio Valley.


Snow fell as far south as Memphis, TN.


This was followed a month later by a White Thanksgiving from DC to New England

And a month after that by the White Christmas from North Florida to NC.




And after the near record cold December, January and February of 1990 were normal to above normal. Sure didn't look like that was going to be the case though in December 1989. I experienced the November snow when I drove from DC to Williamsburg Nov 22 or 23 (memory is hazy) in moderate to heavy snow from DC to about 20 miles north of RIC, then ice pellets, then cold rain. But wraparound the following morning dropped 1/2" in WIlliamsburg VA. THis is very early for snow there.
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Quoting 175. StormTrackerScott:
6-10 day. Record shattering cold on the way. Maybe even historic for October!



with barely a summer for some of the east coast especially in my area that dosent even surprise me the CPC maps are trending colder temps every day..

I already had a coat/jacket out this month..some of yall will need to head to the closet and get yours..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15053
Quoting 215. Neapolitan:
Have you any proof whatsoever that anyone here has ever posted a CPC temperature anomaly map and "deemed it solid evidence" that would either prove or disprove climate change theory? I've been here a few years, and have never seen that happen, so I look forward to seeing your corroborating detail. Thanks!


Have you any proof whatsoever that JB said "Karen could be a monster"? I read his blog everyday and I look forward to seeing your corroborating detail. Thanks!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 555
Here is the Mid October ENSO forecasts from the models. They show Neutral conditions continuing thru the Northern Hemisphere Winter and Spring.





Link
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Quoting 225. Xulonn:
And - Record shattering heat - and cold - on the way. Maybe even historic for October!
Depends on whether or not you are able to see both red and blue - or only blue.
So far, record highs and record lows are running neck and neck, with highs outnumbering lows by just 1.01 to 1, due in large part to an anonymously cold period in late spring. However, September saw record highs outnumbering record lows by 5.85 to 1 across the US, while "warm" weeks overall have outnumbered "cold" ones by 23-19.

temps
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17/2032 UTC 13.5N 142.6E T6.0/6.0 FRANCISCO
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting 225. Xulonn:
And - Record shattering heat on the way. Maybe even historic for October!

Depends on whether or not you are able to see both red and blue - or only blue.

I'd say it depends on what the models are forecasting. That map from the CPC is probabilistic -- the dark blue indicates that, with a high confidence, there will be below-average temperatures. The dark red indicates that, with a high confidence, there will be above-average temperatures. The degree of above and below average cannot be inferred. :)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31859
Quoting 198. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Odds are good, despite this season being lackluster that we will see a storm in November, if we consider the trend of every month in the season having at least 1 named storm.

October has been the least active producing only 1 storm.
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Sunrise over Typhoon Francisco:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting 225. Xulonn:
And - Record shattering heat on the way. Maybe even historic for October!

Depends on whether or not you are able to see both red and blue - or only blue.


...not to mention which part of the country you live in.
Member Since: July 9, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 698
Quoting 175. StormTrackerScott:
6-10 day. Record shattering cold on the way. Maybe even historic for October!

And - Record shattering heat on the way. Maybe even historic for October!

Depends on whether or not you are able to see both red and blue - or only blue.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127803

Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC)
Version 1

Francisco

2013-10-17 00:00 -- 2013-10-17 20:45

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127803
Everyone have a great evening. The central US water vapor loop (Link) tells the story of the coming cooler temps across parts of the US.

Can't wait for some cooler temps here in North Florida. Got the killer black Blues Brothers style Fedora from the House of Blues in Orlando in May and can't wait for the cooler temps to bust it out for the Winter.
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Quoting 196. PalmBeachWeather:
You are welcome... He was very serious... Tried to back out saying he was kidding... So many hipocrits...Tired of it


I'm so glad you can infer my state of mind. Good times, go call someone else a hypocrite and quit trying to start crap.
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Typhoon 26W Fransisco

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 OCT 2013 Time : 200000 UTC
Lat : 13:24:57 N Lon : 142:29:43 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 948.4mb/112.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 5.8 5.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -48.0C Cloud Region Temp : -77.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 115km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 16.0 degrees
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127803
A 1910z TRMM pass caught a sliver of Francisco's eyewall. Not too supporting of an EWRC underway, at least not from a view of the northern semicircle.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31859
Quoting 216. MrMixon:
Geez, Nea, are any of your ex-girlfriends NOT on this blog? ;-)



Well, there was the Arcturian he was eyeing in that Bar on Tatooine, but, well, we had to leave in a hurry, plus, Chewy was inebriated, and you know how hard he can be come closing time....

So.......
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127803
I don't know if "laminar flow" is the right word, but I always find it fascinating to see pockets of wet or dry air forming thin, contiguous bands, such as the thin band of dry air that stretches from the east Pacific all the way to the Colorado/New Mexico border.

(Click to animate)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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