Category 2 Francisco Brushing Guam, and is a Long-Range Threat to Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:48 PM GMT on October 17, 2013

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Category 2 Typhoon Francisco is steadily intensifying over the warm waters of the Western Pacific about 160 miles southwest of Guam. The typhoon is expected to make its closest approach to Guam on Friday morning (local time), bringing sustained winds of 35 - 45 mph and heavy rain, as the storm heads north-northeast at 9 mph. Long range radar out of Guam and satellite loops show that Francisco is well-organized with an impressive area of heavy thunderstorms and a prominent eye. With warm waters that extend to great depth and low wind shear, continued strengthening is likely, and Francisco is forecast to become a major Category 4 typhoon by Saturday as it turns northwest towards Japan. Both the GFS and European models predict that Francisco will hit Japan on Wednesday or Thursday next week, though there is very high uncertainty in the storm's track that far into the future. Francisco's formation gives the Western Pacific 27 named storms so far in 2013, which is the average number of named storms for an entire year. The last time there were more than 27 tropical storms or typhoons in the Western Pacific was in 2004, when there were 32.


Figure 1. View of Typhoon Francisco from the long range radar out of Guam.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Francisco, taken at approximately 03 UTC on October 16, 2013. At the time, Francisco had top winds of about 85 mph. Image credit: NASA.

18 dead, 40+ missing in Japan after Typhoon Wipha
Typhoon Wipha roared past Japan on Tuesday as a Category 1 typhoon, bringing destructive winds and high rains that triggered flooding being blamed for at least 18 deaths. Most of the deaths occurred on Izu Oshima island, about 75 miles south of Tokyo. An astonishing 33.44" (824 mm) fell in just 23 hours on the island, triggering flash floods and mudslides that killed 17 people and left at least 40 missing. During one incredibly wet 6-hour period, 549.5 mm fell, setting a new 6-hour precipitation record for Japan. The previous record was 502.0 mm at Tarama, Okinawa, on April 28, 1988. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, the 24-hour total at Oshima Island was the third highest 24-hour rainfall for Japan on record; the record is 851.5 mm at Yanase (Kochi Prefecture) on 19 July 2011, and 2nd place is the 844 mm that fell at Takeshi (Nara) on 1 August 1982. Wipha is the fourth named storm to hit Japan so far in 2013, and the deadliest typhoon to hit Japan since Typhoon Tokage of October 2004. An average of 2.8 tropical storms or typhoons per year hit Japan during the period 1951 - 2003. Japan's record busiest year was 2004, when ten named storms hit, six of them at Category 1 or higher strength. Jeffrey Hayes has put together a nice summary of Japan's typhoon history.

The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days. NHC is giving 10% odds that an area of disturbed weather (Invest 99L) about 200 miles north-northeast of Bermuda headed northeast out to sea, will develop. During the last few days of October and the first week of November, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is predicted to transition into a phase that will bring an increase in upward-moving air over the Atlantic, boosting the odds of tropical storm formation. The most likely area for formation will be in the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 272. DonnieBwkGA:
I think it's funny that I got plusses for showing that Washington DC had a warmer than average summer. But when ncstorm said NC was cooler than normal and I showed he was right (at least about Raleigh, NC) also I got nothing. LOL. Partisanship!


Yeah I think AGW is real and proven. But partisanship is still funny.


The lower midwest and southeast had an unusually cool summer. New England was unusually warm. DC was into the warm anomaly area.
Member Since: February 1, 2012 Posts: 19 Comments: 2819
Quoting 364. wunderkidcayman:
Hey guys does anyone noticed that vort is slowly piling up in the SW Caribbean is there any indications of a rotation or spin down there
Not right now, but give it a week to the end of this month and there might be something down there.
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Quoting 358. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Typhoon Francisco has likely intensified into a Category 4 equivalent tropical cyclone. Any downward revisions in intensity will be a result of inner core processes for the next 48-72 hours.

This will likely be our next Category 5.

This could lead to our next Sharknado-like motion picture.....RADIOACTIVE TYPHOON!!!
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Hey guys does anyone noticed that vort is slowly piling up in the SW Caribbean is there any indications of a rotation or spin down there
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Quoting 359. BackwoodsTN:

LOL!!


All I remember is JB nailed Sandy and that alone was scary. Okay, the Euro had something to do with it too. :)


JB nailed Sandy. LOL She was a beauty as well. Props to him.
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Quoting 320. PlazaRed:
Sorry to have to leave everybody now but its nearly 1.30 am here a few miles north of Africa, which is as quiet as it is here on its Mediterranean north coast.
Its 18/C here just now and not much change coming along.
October so far has produced enough rain to settle some of the dust and nothing else.
I get the feeling that the winter in southern Europe is going to be dull and boring.
So keeping up spirits and expectations, we are glued to the North American scene for all the action.
Hasta Tomorrow.


Where abouts do you live?
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Quoting 345. mitthbevnuruodo:


Oh sounds so similar to my hometown in So. Calif. It was once a desert, but has been artificially green for a few decades now...and part of why the Colorado river doesn't even make it to the Gulf of California now :/
This effect happens in the east as well. The Apalachicola river is the biggest subject on that matter here because it flows through the clay eater state.
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Typhoon Francisco has likely intensified into a Category 4 equivalent tropical cyclone. Any downward revisions in intensity will be a result of inner core processes for the next 48-72 hours.

This will likely be our next Category 5.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33837
Quoting 327. PlazaRed:

There was something similar a couple of years ago, when the temps in Nuuk Greenland were warmer than those at the same time in parts of Florida.


Yeah that was 2010. That December was brutal here. Our sea surface temps off C FL got into the upper 40's & 50's for a time.
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Quoting 350. Patrap:
JB is upset, : )


All weather, all da time?



You mean JB is juiced up. LOL! I think he gave Jim Cantore some of his workout juice.
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Quoting 351. DonnieBwkGA:


I want his tweets from last November 4th ;)


; )

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 431 Comments: 131961
Quoting 339. nash36:


Jesus man! Out of what orifice did you yank THAT diatribe from? I'd bet all of the money in my wallet to all of the money in YOUR wallet that (pick anywhere in the Middle East that ends in "an") is more of a festering, yada yada yada. Dallas is a great city.
Ever been out of it? I am from Texas, and I am older than you. I would raise my kids in Oklahoma, Arkansas,Brazil, or Canada, but not Dallas. Las Vegas is less sustainable though, and I believe Austin has reached its Population to water ratio long ago.
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JB is upset, : )


All weather, all da time?

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 431 Comments: 131961
Quoting 263. washingtonian115:
I'm not going to lie.That was funny..Anyway it has been sprinkling on and off.The forecast was for sunshien today.Oh well.I look forward to the yellow ball returning in the sky soon.


Nea posted that JB said "Karen could be a monster". It was a smear-bomb pure and simple. I'm attempting to hold him to the same level he insists on holding everyone else to. He ignores the question because it's an argument he can't win and a slur he can't defend. He makes lots of well thought out posts here and that's fine, but when he's being dishonest, I'm gonna call him on it. I'm keeping the record straight.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 767


This trajectory looks more W than previous systems

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Quoting 334. Pallis:
You talk about Dallas like it is still one town. Google Earth it!. Ft Worth /Dallas is a blight, mole, festering cancer upon the Earth. There is not enough water for 500 miles to sustain that future disaster for another 20 years. Why do you think those pictures of dead pine trees south of you are all over the internet? They sucked all the water out for the pretty lawns and golf courses, and royally screwed the rural Texans.


Oh sounds so similar to my hometown in So. Calif. It was once a desert, but has been artificially green for a few decades now...and part of why the Colorado river doesn't even make it to the Gulf of California now :/
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Quoting 331. mitthbevnuruodo:


Not sure why. I thought it was common knowledge from studies, that if the world is warming...not ALL places will get warmer, and extremes, of both hot and cold - drought and wet, more common. So I really don't understand the war between excess highs and excess lows. And as I always like to say, doesn't matter whether we are a prime factor to and GW or not...we shouldn't be polluting our world to death!
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Quoting 296. Neapolitan:
Not sure I follow your point. I was merely pointing out in so many words that temperature records set during a much warmer than normal September had evened out the temperature records set during a much cooler than normal spring, and now 2013 is pretty much even. I mentioned not a word about climate, or trends, or anything of that sort...


Well I wasn't really connecting the two, I was really just making a statement about record highs and record lows because you brought up the subject, not an objection to your comment.
Although one blogger thought somehow I my comment was a jab at saying AGW doesn't exist, which entirely is not true and I honestly don't know how the dots were connected, lol.

Maybe that clarifies things a little more, if my communication skills were poor then I apologize.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8691
Quoting 338. DonnieBwkGA:


But that means you can just create other handles, turn them into handlebots and let the handlebots take the bad karma without lifting a finger.


There is software in the system that handle those attempts..as it's a known variable.

Only few get through and with badly disguised handles at best...if I may add.

; )




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 431 Comments: 131961
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 334. Pallis:
You talk about Dallas like it is still one town. Google Earth it!. Ft Worth /Dallas is a blight, mole, festering cancer upon the Earth. There is not enough water for 500 miles to sustain that future disaster for another 20 years. Why do you think those pictures of dead pine trees south of you are all over the internet? They sucked all the water out for the pretty lawns and golf courses, and royally screwed the rural Texans.


Jesus man! Out of what orifice did you yank THAT diatribe from? I'd bet all of the money in my wallet to all of the money in YOUR wallet that (pick anywhere in the Middle East that ends in "an") is more of a festering, yada yada yada. Dallas is a great city.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 324. TropicalAnalystwx13:
WEATHER POLICE: Policing Hyped Forecasts Since 2013
(Facebook page)

Watch out guys...it's the Weather Police!

I am shaking in my boots :p
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Quoting 254. stormgirI:
the global warming fanatics use that and the cpc every day on here to make their case. they comb their database like a criminal investigator gathers evidence like on CSI. so funny,,


I didn't accuse anyone of doing that nor inciting it, and I don't think its fair to accuse people of doing so here unless their is proof to believe so.

Even still, there is always a disrespectful and a respectful approach to something, lets not head into the disrespectful, right?
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8691
If You don't know how the + minus works....,

It's a logic based algorithm.


If you constantly minus someone out of spite, or whatever, and no one else does, the system recognizes that and reduce's the offending ones Karma.

If a post iz ! by a Set number of members, it is auto deleted.

But if you and others single out and minus or ! a member without the greater community doing it as well, see the paragraph above.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 431 Comments: 131961
Quoting 309. nash36:


We're slated for a pretty decent cool shot this time next week. Low's in the mid-40's. I'll take it! But the weather here has been nothing short of mind-numbingly boring over the past few years. Even our "severe wx season" has been pretty lame. I am a little biased though, since I am from the Dallas area and have seen first hand what severe wx really looks like. It's a strange phenomenon....Once a healthy line of storms reaches I-95....POOF. They disappear like a fart in the wind.
You talk about Dallas like it is still one town. Google Earth it!. Ft Worth /Dallas is a blight, mole, festering cancer upon the Earth. There is not enough water for 500 miles to sustain that future disaster for another 20 years. Why do you think those pictures of dead pine trees south of you are all over the internet? They sucked all the water out for the pretty lawns and golf courses, and royally screwed the rural Texans.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I wonder why they had this invest up?

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al992013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201310172340
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15476
The North Atlantic continues very quiet.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 17 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FIVE DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15476
Quoting 272. DonnieBwkGA:
I think it's funny that I got plusses for showing that Washington DC had a warmer than average summer. But when ncstorm said NC was cooler than normal and I showed he was right (at least about Raleigh, NC) also I got nothing. LOL. Partisanship!


Yeah I think AGW is real and proven. But partisanship is still funny.


Not sure why. I thought it was common knowledge from studies, that if the world is warming...not ALL places will get warmer, and extremes, of both hot and cold - drought and wet, more common. So I really don't understand the war between excess highs and excess lows. And as I always like to say, doesn't matter whether we are a prime factor to and GW or not...we shouldn't be polluting our world to death!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
As waves of colder air sweep southward from Canada, the first snowflakes of the season are possible for some locations in northern portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan this weekend and more cold coming next week for all of the SE
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Will the Mid-Atlantic get some frost or flurries too ?
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Quoting 316. StormTrackerScott:
Record Heat in Alaska to record cold across the US. Amazing! This is what we saw in December 2010 when we had many killer freezes here in FL. .

There was something similar a couple of years ago, when the temps in Nuuk Greenland were warmer than those at the same time in parts of Florida.
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2400
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU OCT 17 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC
SOUTH OF THE COASTS OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting 316. StormTrackerScott:
Record Heat in Alaska to record cold across the US. Amazing! This is what we saw in December 2010 when we had many killer freezes here in FL. .
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WEATHER POLICE: Policing Hyped Forecasts Since 2013
(Facebook page)

Watch out guys...it's the Weather Police!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33837
Quoting 302. bappit:

I happened across an obscure section of the WU blogs once and saw one handle upvoted on multiple posts, each about nothing pretty much, by a set of about 15 different handles. Seems silly since the public visitors see all the posts anyway. Anyone may WU mail me if you want to know what handle benefited from the obviously fake adulation, but I may not answer.
Is that like when you go on a politics blog and everyone knows who the government shills are because they are parroting unpopular false information and giving you minuses, while your unborn great- great- great grandchildren will have to pay for the interest, in the future, on the money borrowed to pay salaries for the unkind opinion vote designed to sway public opinion now.? I disagree Bappit. I think this should be manifest. I akin it to vote fraud. I would like someone to tell us all who benefits.
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First and second cold waves. Then second appears to be the coldest..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 24194
Quoting 297. canyonboy:


I think it is so funny that NOAA, presumably the best there is, can't predict the Atlantic hurricane season accurately but is predicting the weather decades in advance.

Who is predicting "weather decades in advance?"

The longest range weather forecast I know of is the Accuweather 45-day "forecast." Most operational weather forecasting models do not go out that far.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sorry to have to leave everybody now but its nearly 1.30 am here a few miles north of Africa, which is as quiet as it is here on its Mediterranean north coast.
Its 18/C here just now and not much change coming along.
October so far has produced enough rain to settle some of the dust and nothing else.
I get the feeling that the winter in southern Europe is going to be dull and boring.
So keeping up spirits and expectations, we are glued to the North American scene for all the action.
Hasta Tomorrow.
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2400
Quoting 303. PlazaRed:

Now then Hydrus!
What about the rest of the chart/map thing for the north of America concerning this cold/hot thing which is predicted to cause all sorts of record problems, or at lest a bit of mild discussion.
I'm sure somebody can fill in the white spaces so as we can all see what most of you over there are in for.
Keeper would be able to post it but he's probably preparing for the nearest thing to doom this year so far!
I am actually waiting to see tomorrow what the model runs show. It will have a much better grasp on the system that will alter the current pattern.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 24194
84 here in Orlando. Our coolest low so far this Fall has only been 64 and that occurred a brief moment just before daybreak.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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