Category 2 Francisco Brushing Guam, and is a Long-Range Threat to Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:48 PM GMT on October 17, 2013

Share this Blog
50
+

Category 2 Typhoon Francisco is steadily intensifying over the warm waters of the Western Pacific about 160 miles southwest of Guam. The typhoon is expected to make its closest approach to Guam on Friday morning (local time), bringing sustained winds of 35 - 45 mph and heavy rain, as the storm heads north-northeast at 9 mph. Long range radar out of Guam and satellite loops show that Francisco is well-organized with an impressive area of heavy thunderstorms and a prominent eye. With warm waters that extend to great depth and low wind shear, continued strengthening is likely, and Francisco is forecast to become a major Category 4 typhoon by Saturday as it turns northwest towards Japan. Both the GFS and European models predict that Francisco will hit Japan on Wednesday or Thursday next week, though there is very high uncertainty in the storm's track that far into the future. Francisco's formation gives the Western Pacific 27 named storms so far in 2013, which is the average number of named storms for an entire year. The last time there were more than 27 tropical storms or typhoons in the Western Pacific was in 2004, when there were 32.


Figure 1. View of Typhoon Francisco from the long range radar out of Guam.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Francisco, taken at approximately 03 UTC on October 16, 2013. At the time, Francisco had top winds of about 85 mph. Image credit: NASA.

18 dead, 40+ missing in Japan after Typhoon Wipha
Typhoon Wipha roared past Japan on Tuesday as a Category 1 typhoon, bringing destructive winds and high rains that triggered flooding being blamed for at least 18 deaths. Most of the deaths occurred on Izu Oshima island, about 75 miles south of Tokyo. An astonishing 33.44" (824 mm) fell in just 23 hours on the island, triggering flash floods and mudslides that killed 17 people and left at least 40 missing. During one incredibly wet 6-hour period, 549.5 mm fell, setting a new 6-hour precipitation record for Japan. The previous record was 502.0 mm at Tarama, Okinawa, on April 28, 1988. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, the 24-hour total at Oshima Island was the third highest 24-hour rainfall for Japan on record; the record is 851.5 mm at Yanase (Kochi Prefecture) on 19 July 2011, and 2nd place is the 844 mm that fell at Takeshi (Nara) on 1 August 1982. Wipha is the fourth named storm to hit Japan so far in 2013, and the deadliest typhoon to hit Japan since Typhoon Tokage of October 2004. An average of 2.8 tropical storms or typhoons per year hit Japan during the period 1951 - 2003. Japan's record busiest year was 2004, when ten named storms hit, six of them at Category 1 or higher strength. Jeffrey Hayes has put together a nice summary of Japan's typhoon history.

The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days. NHC is giving 10% odds that an area of disturbed weather (Invest 99L) about 200 miles north-northeast of Bermuda headed northeast out to sea, will develop. During the last few days of October and the first week of November, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is predicted to transition into a phase that will bring an increase in upward-moving air over the Atlantic, boosting the odds of tropical storm formation. The most likely area for formation will be in the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 417 - 367

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12Blog Index

Night folks. I'll come back tomorrow when the talk will again be about Francisco and the possible pending cold spell.

Not all the BS that is here now!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 389. Climate175:
DC/Baltimore will be in for a surprise this winter , dont let that early Great Lake Snow let you down. Who knows we might get big snow like 2009-2010 winter season. We are technically overdue for another big one. Its been 4 years since the last one. Accuweather predicts below normal snow for the Mid-Atlantic region but the Farmers Almanac says above normal snow. If you live in the Mid-Atlantic Region respond to this commment and give me your thoughts.

What's your reasoning for a 09-10 winter repeat sans the Farmers Almanac (which should not be used seriously...)?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32717
The crab fleet is about to leave Dutch Harbor -

Government shutdown 2013: "Deadliest Catch" crab fishermen stuck in port without licenses



Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 413. JustFlyingThru:
Can we get back to some weather of some kind. Thats why I thoght we were here for!


Ok. It's gonna be warm in da west and cold in the east!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Can we get back to some weather of some kind. Thats why I thoght we were here for!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 409. PensacolaDoug:



None. Just musing.

That's a shame. Evidence is very useful for arriving at sound conclusions.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
so the flow of comments involves baffling baffoons and I will be on topic..great!! been waiting all day to post on this..LOL




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
410. txjac
Birthmark ...just enlarged your avatar ...how cute!
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2593
Quoting 404. Birthmark:

Evidence?



None. Just musing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 405. luvtogolf:


Much like the climate baffoons that post on this blog all day long.

No, not really. Most of them can read a graph.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 400. JohnLonergan:
Why are you insulting babbling buffoons?



It appears a couple have escaped from Rood's blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 400. JohnLonergan:
Why are you insulting babbling buffoons?

A babbling buffoon once keyed my car.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 393. Birthmark:

As a weather forecaster, Bastardi is okay.

But when it comes to climate, Bastardi is a babbling buffoon.


Much like the climate baffoons that post on this blog all day long.
Member Since: June 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1288
Quoting 398. PensacolaDoug:
But when it comes to climate, Bastardi is a babbling buffoon

Kinda like the pot calling the kettle back.

Evidence?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 350. Patrap:
JB is upset, : )


All weather, all da time?



He quoted Einstein today ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 396. Climate175:
Ya Feb 2010 was the year. Can you name some websites that say above average.

Uhh crap. I cannot remember off the top of my head. However, If I come by them I will let you know.
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3850
401. beell
ok, i see. my post is off topic.
:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 393. Birthmark:

As a weather forecaster, Bastardi is okay.

But when it comes to climate, Bastardi is a babbling buffoon.
Why are you insulting babbling buffoons?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 286. Tornado6042008X:
Thank you. I am fairly close by in Northern Virginia so I will definitely look into those universities. And Penn State is one of the schools that I am already applying to:)


Virginia Tech actually has a fresh meteorology program, definitely check that out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
But when it comes to climate, Bastardi is a babbling buffoon

Kinda like the pot calling the kettle back.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
397. beell
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 395. Doppler22:

I live in South Central Pennsylvania. I don't normally look at Accuweather because they tend to not be correct :p and I have seen numerous predictions for an above average winter. Now I am not the best person on the blog to respond to this, there are people much smarter then me on here, but I think we will have an average to slightly above average winter. I also would like at least an average winter, because the past 3 winters have been pathetic.
Ya Feb 2010 was the year. Can you name some websites that say above average.
Member Since: September 24, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 4669
Quoting 389. Climate175:
DC/Baltimore will be in for a surprise this winter , dont let that early Great Lake Snow let you down. Who knows we might get big snow like 2009-2010 winter season. We are technically overdue for another big one. Its been 4 years since the last one. Accuweather predicts below normal snow for the Mid-Atlantic region but the Farmers Almanac says above normal snow. If you live in the Mid-Atlantic Region respond to this commment and give me your thoughts.

I live in South Central Pennsylvania. I don't normally look at Accuweather because they tend to not be correct :p and I have seen numerous predictions for an above average winter. Now I am not the best person on the blog to respond to this, there are people much smarter then me on here, but I think we will have an average to slightly above average winter. I also would like at least an average winter, because the past 3 winters have been pathetic. But don't fully rely on the Farmer's Almanac either. Wait until we get closer to Winter to make a more accurate prediction.
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3850
I might make a Winter blog
Member Since: September 24, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 4669
Quoting 368. wunderkidcayman:

If JB was right half or most of the time most of the storm would have a track up the E Coast and landfall just like Sandy so... well... you know

As a weather forecaster, Bastardi is okay.

But when it comes to climate, Bastardi is a babbling buffoon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 387. Tropicsweatherpr:
00z Best Track for Typhoon Francisco up to 120kts and 933 mbs.

26W FRANCISCO 131018 0000 13.8N 142.3E WPAC 120 933


Best guess is a 150kt Super Typhoon. GFS is showing Francisco deepening through 72 hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 374. FunnelVortex:
JB deserves more credit than everyone here gives him.
Almost everyone..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22316
Whats all the talk about JB? This is Dr Masters Blog! Would you same people go to JB's Blog and talk about Dr Masters?

Seems disrespectful to me.

Know this won't mean anything to you all, but had it on my mind.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
DC/Baltimore will be in for a surprise this winter , dont let that early Great Lake Snow let you down. Who knows we might get big snow like 2009-2010 winter season. We are technically overdue for another big one. Its been 4 years since the last one. Accuweather predicts below normal snow for the Mid-Atlantic region but the Farmers Almanac says above normal snow. If you live in the Mid-Atlantic Region respond to this commment and give me your thoughts.
Member Since: September 24, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 4669
Quoting 368. wunderkidcayman:

If JB was right half or most of the time most of the storm would have a track up the E Coast and landfall just like Sandy so... well... you know


you really make it too easy, so I will not make the oh so obvious comment
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
00z Best Track for Typhoon Francisco up to 120kts and down to 933 mbs.

26W FRANCISCO 131018 0000 13.8N 142.3E WPAC 120 933
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 356. MassiveCranium:

I've always enjoyed logging on at night because of KoriTheMan and the other hardcore ones but this is the second night now that the topic is JB and who is right and who is wrong. Can't we drop it already?
J.B. can be over bearing, but he does have a lot of experience and knowledge when it comes to weather. His resume isnt too shabby either, regardless of ones opinion about Accuweather.

From WIKI...where else..

Bastardi was born in Providence, Rhode Island. He spent his childhood moving frequently, first to Texas in 1960, then to Somers Point, New Jersey in 1965. His fascination with weather dates to his childhood; he reportedly carried an anemometer around with him as a teenager to measure wind speed. He enrolled at Penn State University, where he was a member of the varsity wrestling team. He graduated with a degree in meteorology on March 4, 1978. In 1992 at age 37, Bastardi married Jessica Jane Strunck, age 26, also a Penn State graduate. They have a son Garrett (born 1996) and a daughter Jessica (born 1998). In his free time, Bastardi enjoys bodybuilding, and has won the NABBA American Bodybuilding Championships.

Bastardi worked for AccuWeather from 1978 until February, 2011. He joined WeatherBell Analytics LLC as Chief Forecaster in March, 2011.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22316
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">

Updated graph from earlier showing the comparison of snowfall in years with a government shutdown for Baltimore.
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3850
Another awesome typhoon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 362. StormTrackerScott:


JB nailed Sandy. LOL She was a beauty as well. Props to him.
Some of the models did very well with Hurricane Sandy...With the crazy path..I was impressed.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22316
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting 365. eyewallblues:
This could lead to our next Sharknado-like motion picture.....RADIOACTIVE TYPHOON!!!
That's funny, but kinda not. I like to eat sea creatures and breath air.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 357. StormTrackerScott:


Yeah that was 2010. That December was brutal here. Our sea surface temps off C FL got into the upper 40's & 50's for a time.
But the benefits were/are still that the grouper moved in from offshore and never left. A real gas saver for those who know how to fish.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Been watching the remains of Typhoon Wipha, saw this today :
Near-record temperatures expected in Interior Alaska

The latest round of above-normal temperatures continues what so far has been an unseasonably warm October, Cox said. The average temperature so far this month has been almost 8 degrees above normal, he said.
There%u2019s only been one day in the month of October that%u2019s been below normal and that was Oct. 1, Cox said


The unseasonable temperatures will continue through the weekend and into early next week with highs in the mid to upper 40s, Cox said. The latest blast of warm air is an aftermath of Typhoon Wipha, which recently went up the coast of Japan and will move into the Bering Sea.


.Link

This upper energy is forecast to be in the lower Mississippi Valley next Wed. If this comes to pass. Dr. Francis' theory gains more power . Because that's a hell of a loop from the west Pacific to Alaska to the Mississippi Valley
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 376. wunderkidcayman:

Wait what show me


Post 340
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 372. FunnelVortex:


A low in the Carribean?

Wait what show me
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 369. StormTrackerScott:


MJO coming soon. Strongest since early June.


Agreed hmm maybe we may get a burst that spits out 2 or 3 storms while that MJO moves in and hangs around
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
JB deserves more credit than everyone here gives him.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 359. BackwoodsTN:

LOL!!


All I remember is JB nailed Sandy and that alone was scary. Okay, the Euro had something to do with it too. :)
StormTrackerScott had this from the beginning, yet because of his good looks very few give him the credit he deserves. That storm should have made him a meteorological superstar. Just sayin' ...
Member Since: July 8, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
Quoting 340. stormpetrol:


A low in the Carribean?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 358. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Typhoon Francisco has likely intensified into a Category 4 equivalent tropical cyclone. Any downward revisions in intensity will be a result of inner core processes for the next 48-72 hours.

This will likely be our next Category 5.


Yup.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11694
Quoting 366. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Not right now, but give it a week to the end of this month and there might be something down there.

Well as I said vort is slowly piling up so yeah keep eyes on
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 366. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Not right now, but give it a week to the end of this month and there might be something down there.


MJO coming soon. Strongest since early June.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 4438
Quoting 362. StormTrackerScott:


JB nailed Sandy. LOL She was a beauty as well. Props to him.

If JB was right half or most of the time most of the storm would have a track up the E Coast and landfall just like Sandy so... well... you know
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 272. DonnieBwkGA:
I think it's funny that I got plusses for showing that Washington DC had a warmer than average summer. But when ncstorm said NC was cooler than normal and I showed he was right (at least about Raleigh, NC) also I got nothing. LOL. Partisanship!


Yeah I think AGW is real and proven. But partisanship is still funny.


The lower midwest and southeast had an unusually cool summer. New England was unusually warm. DC was into the warm anomaly area.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 417 - 367

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
25 °F
Partly Cloudy