Category 2 Francisco Brushing Guam, and is a Long-Range Threat to Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:48 PM GMT on October 17, 2013

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Category 2 Typhoon Francisco is steadily intensifying over the warm waters of the Western Pacific about 160 miles southwest of Guam. The typhoon is expected to make its closest approach to Guam on Friday morning (local time), bringing sustained winds of 35 - 45 mph and heavy rain, as the storm heads north-northeast at 9 mph. Long range radar out of Guam and satellite loops show that Francisco is well-organized with an impressive area of heavy thunderstorms and a prominent eye. With warm waters that extend to great depth and low wind shear, continued strengthening is likely, and Francisco is forecast to become a major Category 4 typhoon by Saturday as it turns northwest towards Japan. Both the GFS and European models predict that Francisco will hit Japan on Wednesday or Thursday next week, though there is very high uncertainty in the storm's track that far into the future. Francisco's formation gives the Western Pacific 27 named storms so far in 2013, which is the average number of named storms for an entire year. The last time there were more than 27 tropical storms or typhoons in the Western Pacific was in 2004, when there were 32.


Figure 1. View of Typhoon Francisco from the long range radar out of Guam.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Francisco, taken at approximately 03 UTC on October 16, 2013. At the time, Francisco had top winds of about 85 mph. Image credit: NASA.

18 dead, 40+ missing in Japan after Typhoon Wipha
Typhoon Wipha roared past Japan on Tuesday as a Category 1 typhoon, bringing destructive winds and high rains that triggered flooding being blamed for at least 18 deaths. Most of the deaths occurred on Izu Oshima island, about 75 miles south of Tokyo. An astonishing 33.44" (824 mm) fell in just 23 hours on the island, triggering flash floods and mudslides that killed 17 people and left at least 40 missing. During one incredibly wet 6-hour period, 549.5 mm fell, setting a new 6-hour precipitation record for Japan. The previous record was 502.0 mm at Tarama, Okinawa, on April 28, 1988. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, the 24-hour total at Oshima Island was the third highest 24-hour rainfall for Japan on record; the record is 851.5 mm at Yanase (Kochi Prefecture) on 19 July 2011, and 2nd place is the 844 mm that fell at Takeshi (Nara) on 1 August 1982. Wipha is the fourth named storm to hit Japan so far in 2013, and the deadliest typhoon to hit Japan since Typhoon Tokage of October 2004. An average of 2.8 tropical storms or typhoons per year hit Japan during the period 1951 - 2003. Japan's record busiest year was 2004, when ten named storms hit, six of them at Category 1 or higher strength. Jeffrey Hayes has put together a nice summary of Japan's typhoon history.

The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days. NHC is giving 10% odds that an area of disturbed weather (Invest 99L) about 200 miles north-northeast of Bermuda headed northeast out to sea, will develop. During the last few days of October and the first week of November, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is predicted to transition into a phase that will bring an increase in upward-moving air over the Atlantic, boosting the odds of tropical storm formation. The most likely area for formation will be in the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 465. Xulonn:
Unfortunately, it's not a game - it's true. No insinuations - just observations.

No sympathy is needed - just recognition of the reality of the science that Dr. Masters teaches us here at his blog - it's easy to do if you approach the subject with critical thinking and trationality.

Please tell us, NC, why do you come to Dr. Masters blog and trash what he teaches and insult those who believe that he is telling us the truth? Why do you support those who attack Dr. Master's teachings with pseudoscience, cherry-picking and even outright falsehoods?


I support fairness..and the truth as I see it. Why do you care who I support? We dont know each other? I'm just a blogger from NC who you will never meet. You will never deter my opinion on what I consider is the truth.

I sure dont come on here speaking for Dr. Masters and pretending that Dr. Masters is curled up in some corner wiping the tears off his laptop reading these comments. Its quite comical to see what lengths you guys will go to. One thing for sure, Dr. Masters may not be wiping tears from his eyes but I am sure am from laughing at the attempts displayed on here..
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Quoting 464. Birthmark:

That is an interesting idea. Anybody have Skype? :)


We could all sign up for the upcoming Science of Climate Change online class starting next week on Coursera, I have, anyone else?
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Quoting 454. ncstorm:


thats the new game plan, dont you see?..gain sympathy for the cause by insitiuating that Dr. Masters is being attacked by the "denialists"..too funny..
Unfortunately, it's not a game - it's true. No insinuations - just observations.

No sympathy is needed - just recognition of the reality of the science that Dr. Masters teaches us here at his blog - it's easy to do if you approach the subject with critical thinking and trationality.

Please tell us, NC, why do you come to Dr. Masters blog and trash what he teaches and insult those who believe that he is telling us the truth? Why do you support those who attack Dr. Master's teachings with pseudoscience, cherry-picking and even outright falsehoods?
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Quoting 463. Astrometeor:
I wish, that would be rather fun.

That is an interesting idea. Anybody have Skype? :)
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Quoting 458. BaltimoreBrian:
astrometeor, I suspect luvtogolf and DealWithIt are the same person.


I had assumed the same thing Brian.

Quoting 460. ncstorm:


do you all have teleconferences and call in


I wish, that would be rather fun.
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Quoting 458. BaltimoreBrian:
astrometeor, I suspect luvtogolf and DealWithIt are the same person.


Evidence?
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Quoting 444. DealWithIt:

No. Take a deep breath, relax, and read the comment again. Okay. Now, I'm going to ask you a couple questions to see if you can follow along.

1) Does Dr. Master's post comments on this blog? Answer is no. He writes the blog.

2) Does Dr. Master's write the blog all day long. Answer is no. He writes it in the morning, and then bloggers like us post comments.

How in the hell can you insinuate that he was talking about Dr. Master's???
I'm sorry that you are not familiar with the concept of critical thinking. This is the blog of Dr. Jeff Masters - a Ph.D. Meteorologist and en expert on AGW/CC.

Dr. Masters is a scientist active in study varous aspects of the settled science of AGW/CC, and the implications of this threat.

Many of us who are trained in science and understand the reality of AGW/CC, look to Dr. Masters and the climate scientist he hired - Dr. Ricky Rood, as leaders in teaching climate science and the details of AGW/CC.

By insulting us, the people who support Dr. Masters, Dr. Rood and the science they participate in and teach, the denialists here are also insulting them. We do not make things up - we follow the lead of Dr. Masters and Dr. Rood in following the rules of science. They are very competent leaders in the study of AGW/CC and it's implications for human civilization.

How do you come to the conclusion that insulting everything that Dr. Masters stands for regarding AGW/CC - at his blog - is not insulting him as well?
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Quoting 456. Astrometeor:
Refer to post #444

1. The correct answer is yes. Sure he might not have posted today, but the comment made above was made against all AGW supporters.
2. How do you know the answer to that? You don't. Masters might take several days to write a blog, or a few hours, you can't tell. Besides, I've seen him post updates in the afternoon, not always morning blogs.

On top of the above, Masters reads his blogs at least occasionally, sometimes he links in his posts items of interest that came from bloggers on previous entries. I would think he would be insulted if he saw luvtogolf's comments. I'm not sure as to how far he would care, he knows he gets called names for no good reason, but I bet he would be upset if it came from his own blog.


So we speak for Dr. Masters now? Know what he is thinking or offended by?..LOL..I got to leave on this..do you all have teleconferences and call in and come up with these brainstorming sessions of how you all can use a comment to your advantage. If so, can I have the call in number just to sit in and listen? I'll bring the popcorn.
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459. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM JST October 18 2013
======================================

Sea Around Aleutians
At 0:00 AM UTC, Low, Former Wipha (964 hPa) located at 53.0N 173.0E. The low is reported as moving east at 25 knots.

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 17.0N 153.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving north at 10 knots.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45548
astrometeor, I suspect luvtogolf and DealWithIt are the same person.
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Quoting 450. JohnLonergan:


This is my personal favorite

This was a classic, right up there with Goddard's triple point debacle over on that famous anti-science site run by an ex-TV-weatherman.

Bastardi is a buffoon when the subject is climate.
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Refer to post #444

1. The correct answer is yes. Sure he might not have posted today, but the comment made above was made against all AGW supporters.
2. How do you know the answer to that? You don't. Masters might take several days to write a blog, or a few hours, you can't tell. Besides, I've seen him post updates in the afternoon, not always morning blogs.

On top of the above, Masters reads his blogs at least occasionally, sometimes he links in his posts items of interest that came from bloggers on previous entries. I would think he would be insulted if he saw luvtogolf's comments. I'm not sure as to how far he would care, he knows he gets called names for no good reason, but I bet he would be upset if it came from his own blog.
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Quoting 452. Tropicsweatherpr:
New Invest 96E.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep962013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201310180231
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 96, 2013, DB, O, 2013101800, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP962013
EP, 96, 2013101706, , BEST, 0, 98N, 886W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2013101712, , BEST, 0, 99N, 900W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2013101718, , BEST, 0, 100N, 911W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2013101800, , BEST, 0, 101N, 922W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting 444. DealWithIt:

No. Take a deep breath, relax, and read the comment again. Okay. Now, I'm going to ask you a couple questions to see if you can follow along.

1) Does Dr. Master's post comments on this blog? Answer is no. He writes the blog.

2) Does Dr. Master's write the blog all day long. Answer is no. He writes it in the morning, and then bloggers like us post comments.

How in the hell can you insinuate that he was talking about Dr. Master's???


thats the new game plan, dont you see?..gain sympathy for the cause by insitiuating that Dr. Masters is being attacked by the "denialists"..too funny..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
New Invest 96E.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep962013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201310180231
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 96, 2013, DB, O, 2013101800, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP962013
EP, 96, 2013101706, , BEST, 0, 98N, 886W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2013101712, , BEST, 0, 99N, 900W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2013101718, , BEST, 0, 100N, 911W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2013101800, , BEST, 0, 101N, 922W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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there you go Xulonn bringing in Dr. Masters in a conversation where no one even mention his name and then cry to the heavens, "Dont attack Dr. Masters!"..or "Are you calling Dr. Masters a (insert derogatory insult). I see your game plan now. Every time someone mentions a opinion against the majority here on WU lets turn it around and say its an attack on Dr. Masters..unreal and quite funny.

I'm trying to keep up with the current game plan on the war on Terrorism as it was called today so let me see if I got this straight??..1)people who dont agree with Dr. Masters thinking are trolls 2)any disagreement is the same as attacking him and calling him (whatever name you decide to use)

Dr. Masters, are your ears burning?
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Quoting 436. Birthmark:

You can start here: http://www.skepticalscience.com/skeptic_Joe_Basta rdi.htm


This is my personal favorite
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I've seen Dr. Masters comment on many occasions here.
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Quoting 435. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Francisco sure does have a weighted central dense overcast. Needs to wrap that deeper convection around to the northern semicircle if it wants to become much stronger.

I think it's been trying to undergo an EWRC. It's not doing a good job.




it looks like its even a little lopsided it like shear is pushing the t-storm down
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Quoting 405. luvtogolf:


Much like the climate baffoons that post on this blog all day long.
Does that include Dr. Masters? Are you implying that he is the chief "buffoon"??

How disrespectful!!
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The 03:00z forecast track.

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Quoting 435. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Francisco sure does have a weighted central dense overcast. Needs to wrap that deeper convection around to the northern semicircle if it wants to become much stronger.

I think it's been trying to undergo an EWRC. It's not doing a good job.


6.6 913.9 +3.1 129.6
Pressure now at 913.9... only 4 higher than Usagi
Member Since: October 6, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 784
Quoting 430. ColoradoBob1:
Pull up the WonderMap for Alaska tonight .
It's 35F degrees at the Barrow Utilities . There is not one station reporting a number below freezing.

Link
It is time to leave port and start fishing ... now.
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Quoting 434. wxgeek723:


Going back to 2010...how many 1 in x00 year events have we had lol?
Okay.Well how do you think this winter will turn out?
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17073
Quoting 427. yoboi:


evidence......

You can start here: http://www.skepticalscience.com/skeptic_Joe_Basta rdi.htm
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Francisco sure does have a weighted central dense overcast. Needs to wrap that deeper convection around to the northern semicircle if it wants to become much stronger.

I think it's been trying to undergo an EWRC. It's not doing a good job.

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Quoting 423. washingtonian115:
We're not going to have a 09-10 winter here in the Mid atlantic region.I can assure you that..That winter was historic and as Doc said it was a 1 in 600 year event.


Going back to 2010...how many 1 in x00 year events have we had lol?
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting 415. ColoradoBob1:
The crab fleet is about to leave Dutch Harbor -

Government shutdown 2013: "Deadliest Catch" crab fishermen stuck in port without licenses



Link
They should just go. This is just a control issue by the anoles that think they run the land and sea. Like them or not, they feed people, and make money doing it. I would charge money for it too. It is hard dangerous work. When it really comes down to Americans not getting enough food for the young and old, this NOAA system is *poof*.
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Quoting 426. Astrometeor:


Why not? Those are the odds, not the actual results. There's always a chance of having back-to-back winters of same epic-like nature, or having a similar winter to 2009-10 this winter.
I've been in D.C nearly all my life..I just don't see the signs of this winter being like that.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17073
Quoting 423. washingtonian115:
We're not going to have a 09-10 winter here in the Mid atlantic region.I can assure you that..That winter was historic and as Doc said it was a 1 in 600 year event.


Why not? Those are the odds, not the actual results. There's always a chance of having back-to-back winters of same epic-like nature, or having a similar winter to 2009-10 this winter.
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NHK, Oct. 17, 2013: High radioactivity in Fukushima Daiichi ditch. The operator of the damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant says it has detected high levels of radioactivity in a ditch leading to the sea, after Typhoon Wipha brought heavy rain. Tepco detected 1,400 becquerels per liter of beta ray-emitting radioactive material at a measuring point 150 meters from the sea on Wednesday. The figure was more than 70 times higher than readings taken on Tuesday. It’s also the highest since monitoring of the ditch water was started in August. Officials say rain from the typhoon caused contaminated soil to flow into the ditch and created the high radioactivity. Officials also say they will assess the effects on the surrounding sea. Strontium sea salt anyone? I now officially rename Francisco as Godzilla, or Cthulhu in American.
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Quoting 418. Ameister12:
Francisco is looking fiercer with every new frame.
Kinda looks like Bill.Which was a cat 4 when this picture was taken.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17073
Quoting 416. TropicalAnalystwx13:

What's your reasoning for a 09-10 winter repeat sans the Farmers Almanac (which should not be used seriously...)?
We're not going to have a 09-10 winter here in the Mid atlantic region.I can assure you that..That winter was historic and as Doc said it was a 1 in 600 year event.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17073
Quoting 419. MoltenIce:
Guys, got any good links for satellite images on Francisco? NRL appears to be facing problems updating MTSAT images again and apparently NOAA's SSD page thinks it doesn't exist.

I've been getting images from the RAMMB and CIMSS tropical cyclone sites.
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Chilly air on the move the next 5 days

Oct .17, 2013 1:31 pm ET

Northeast |
An area of showers will move from VA and WV up through New England Thursday night.
The showers will move out of Maine in the morning on Friday.
Dryer and slightly cooler air moves in during the day Friday.
-Overnight Thursday temps will drop into the 40s from Maine down through the mountains to West Virginia. Lows will be in the 50s and lower 60s along the I-95 corridor from Boston down to Virgina.
Highs on Friday wil range from the 60s along the coastal plain to the 50s in the mountains.
- After temperatures in the 70s for highs for much of the I-95 corridor Thursday, 60s will be more common on Friday.
Temps will trend slowly cooler over the weekend with colder readings by the middle of next week
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 26 Comments: 50510
Quoting 417. JustFlyingThru:
Night folks. I'll come back tomorrow when the talk will again be about Francisco and the possible pending cold spell.

Not all the BS that is here now!


dont leave :( I was about to post some great gifs of bastardi working out as its revelant due to the flow of comments..
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Guys, got any good links for satellite images on Francisco? NRL appears to be facing problems updating MTSAT images again and apparently NOAA's SSD page thinks it doesn't exist.
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Francisco is looking fiercer with every new frame.
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Night folks. I'll come back tomorrow when the talk will again be about Francisco and the possible pending cold spell.

Not all the BS that is here now!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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