Category 2 Francisco Brushing Guam, and is a Long-Range Threat to Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:48 PM GMT on October 17, 2013

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Category 2 Typhoon Francisco is steadily intensifying over the warm waters of the Western Pacific about 160 miles southwest of Guam. The typhoon is expected to make its closest approach to Guam on Friday morning (local time), bringing sustained winds of 35 - 45 mph and heavy rain, as the storm heads north-northeast at 9 mph. Long range radar out of Guam and satellite loops show that Francisco is well-organized with an impressive area of heavy thunderstorms and a prominent eye. With warm waters that extend to great depth and low wind shear, continued strengthening is likely, and Francisco is forecast to become a major Category 4 typhoon by Saturday as it turns northwest towards Japan. Both the GFS and European models predict that Francisco will hit Japan on Wednesday or Thursday next week, though there is very high uncertainty in the storm's track that far into the future. Francisco's formation gives the Western Pacific 27 named storms so far in 2013, which is the average number of named storms for an entire year. The last time there were more than 27 tropical storms or typhoons in the Western Pacific was in 2004, when there were 32.


Figure 1. View of Typhoon Francisco from the long range radar out of Guam.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Francisco, taken at approximately 03 UTC on October 16, 2013. At the time, Francisco had top winds of about 85 mph. Image credit: NASA.

18 dead, 40+ missing in Japan after Typhoon Wipha
Typhoon Wipha roared past Japan on Tuesday as a Category 1 typhoon, bringing destructive winds and high rains that triggered flooding being blamed for at least 18 deaths. Most of the deaths occurred on Izu Oshima island, about 75 miles south of Tokyo. An astonishing 33.44" (824 mm) fell in just 23 hours on the island, triggering flash floods and mudslides that killed 17 people and left at least 40 missing. During one incredibly wet 6-hour period, 549.5 mm fell, setting a new 6-hour precipitation record for Japan. The previous record was 502.0 mm at Tarama, Okinawa, on April 28, 1988. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, the 24-hour total at Oshima Island was the third highest 24-hour rainfall for Japan on record; the record is 851.5 mm at Yanase (Kochi Prefecture) on 19 July 2011, and 2nd place is the 844 mm that fell at Takeshi (Nara) on 1 August 1982. Wipha is the fourth named storm to hit Japan so far in 2013, and the deadliest typhoon to hit Japan since Typhoon Tokage of October 2004. An average of 2.8 tropical storms or typhoons per year hit Japan during the period 1951 - 2003. Japan's record busiest year was 2004, when ten named storms hit, six of them at Category 1 or higher strength. Jeffrey Hayes has put together a nice summary of Japan's typhoon history.

The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days. NHC is giving 10% odds that an area of disturbed weather (Invest 99L) about 200 miles north-northeast of Bermuda headed northeast out to sea, will develop. During the last few days of October and the first week of November, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is predicted to transition into a phase that will bring an increase in upward-moving air over the Atlantic, boosting the odds of tropical storm formation. The most likely area for formation will be in the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 513. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Core convection has wrapped more around a warming eye over the past hour. Looks to be intensifying again.


I'd agree with that. Looking at the radar out of Guam, the eyewall looks better defined than it ever has, despite the fact that Francisco has been moving away from the radar site for some time now.

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doing a little ramp up
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515. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2013OCT18 033200 6.6 913.9 +3.1 129.6 6.6 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 4.21 -74.59 EYE 19 IR 46.4 14.11 -141.96

T6.5 from Tokyo ADT
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TXPQ29 KNES 180309
TCSWNP

A. 26W (FRANCISCO)

B. 18/0232Z

C. 14.0N

D. 142.0E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...OW EYE IS EMBEDDED IN B FOR AN EYE NO. OF 5.5 AND SURROUNDED
BY A RING OF WHITE FOR AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF PLUS 0.5. THIS YIELDS A
DT=6.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MCCARTHY
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Core convection has wrapped more around a warming eye over the past hour. Looks to be intensifying again.

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Eye clearing up.
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Quoting 509. Astrometeor:


Well I better live long, I like to think I take care of myself.

And what, is Max and I the new "Keep up with the Kardashians" for this place? Sheesh.

On-topic:
Francisco:


Pretty much, yeah! :P
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Francisco


Reminds me of Paka in '97, which also grazed Guam but caused more damage.

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Quoting 506. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Forreal??? I seriously thought it was a hurricane that clobbered Tampa Bay. Hmm? Well must have been dreaming then. :-P...By the way you are going to live long, Nathan, was thinking about you and Max tonight.


Well I better live long, I like to think I take care of myself.

And what, is Max and I the new "Keep up with the Kardashians" for this place? Sheesh.

On-topic:
Francisco:
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Quoting 506. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Forreal??? I seriously thought it was a hurricane that clobbered Tampa Bay. Hmm? Well must have been dreaming then. :-P...By the way you are going to live long, Nathan, was thinking about you and Max tonight.


They were busy in my blog. Check out the comment numbers there. It's all good.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
XX/XX/XXL
Interesting...!
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 970
Quoting 499. Astrometeor:


Andrea was a tropical storm, not a hurricane.

Edit:

;)
Forreal??? I seriously thought it was a hurricane that clobbered Tampa Bay. Hmm? Well must have been dreaming then. :-P...By the way you are going to live long, Nathan, was thinking about you and Max tonight.
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Summary for the 2013 Pacific typhoon season

Total named storms: 27
Total typhoons: 10
Total super typhoons (>130 kts): 2
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In the off season there's going to be lots of hand wringing about how to handle the extreme weather issue. The decision to focus public attention on more spectacular immediate storms(preferably someplace with lots of media) rather than the more serious but boring business of watching the ocean rise. I always thought this was a bad idea. Nothing has been proven beyond effects caused by rising water/surge. What do you do if instead of more frequent and more powerful storms you get less frequent and weaker? We'll see.
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i think we will see one more significant tropical system before the season is over
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ive seen a few GFS runs hinting at something in the NW Caribbean for the end of the month.. thats a long way out but again since its been hinting at development for some time now something to watch for sure..
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Quoting 492. BaltimoreBrian:


I believe Andrea killed three in the USA. Still very low for a full hurricane season.


Andrea was a tropical storm, not a hurricane.

Edit:

;)
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Quoting Civicane49:


Nice, but I think the ignored feature, SW of the islands is apparently looking more impressive than this one In the pacific....
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Major Fire Updates


Watch and Act - Mount York Road, Mt Victoria Fire (Blue Mountains) 18/10/13 14:55
Watch and Act - Hall Road Fire, Balmoral Village (Southern Highlands / Wollondilly) 18/10/13 14:54
Emergency Warning - Camden Valley Way fire, Leppington (Macarthur) 18/10/13 14:52
Watch and Act - State Mine Fire (Lithgow and Blue Mountains) 18/10/13 14:36
Emergency Warning - Ruttleys Road Fire (Wyong LGA) 18/10/13 14:35
Emergency Warning - Linksview Road Fire, Springwood (Blue Mountains) 18/10/13 14:18
Watch and Act - Hank St Fire (Heatherbrae) 18/10/13 13:57
Advice - Hancocks Fire, Wandandian (Shoalhaven) 18/10/13 11:41
Advice - Hungerford Creek Fire (Muswellbrook) 18/10/13 11:38
Advice - Mount Tangory Fire (Singleton) 18/10/13 11:28

more here>>>> Link
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Interesting that the WPac is seeing a burst of activity.
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Quoting 494. toddbizz:


I just love tracking Atlantic Basin storms....this year has been a bust the year of the blob...look at what the Pacific puts out...unreal....


Well, 1994 had more ACE in November than the rest of the season combined.

Yeah, that's really reaching isn't it? Season has been poor and will almost certainly remain so.
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Quoting 492. BaltimoreBrian:


I believe Andrea killed three in the USA. Still very low for a full hurricane season.

Edit: Wiki says 3 indirect deaths due to weather related traffic accidents in Virginia and New Jersey. One direct death in SC when a surfer went missing, presumed drowned.


I just love tracking Atlantic Basin storms....this year has been a bust the year of the blob...look at what the Pacific puts out...unreal....
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XX/AOI/XXL
MARK
9.13N/49.39W
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Quoting 490. washingtonian115:
Well on the bright side no damage and hurricane related deaths in the states this year.


I believe Andrea killed three in the USA. Still very low for a full hurricane season.

Edit: Wiki says 3 indirect deaths due to weather related traffic accidents in Virginia and New Jersey. One direct death in SC when a surfer went missing, presumed drowned.
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Quoting 488. toddbizz:
Well on the bright side no damage and hurricane related deaths in the states this year.
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489. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON FRANCISCO (T1327)
12:00 PM JST October 18 2013
=====================================

Near Marianas Island

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Francisco (950 hPa) located at 14.0N 142.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 8 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
180 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 16.4N 139.5E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
45 HRS: 18.0N 137.2E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
69 HRS: 20.4N 135.6E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan
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Quoting 470. washingtonian115:
The other basins are producing storms like how rabbits produce eanrbabies.Fast!.Meanwhile the Atlantic is like a old fart.. it has gone barren...
The Atlantic is pathetic for storms....what a bust of a season...unreal...
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Quoting 484. Naga5000:


Yeah, sometimes the wife let's me go explore Orlando, and by that I mean go to the pub. She's a great woman. :)
Lol.A man has to have his freedoms.My husband would agree with that statement.I've been doing a little mixing and matching here at the house with my "made up bar".7 up on the rocks mixed with a little rum.
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Quoting 485. HurrMichaelOrl:


Orlando (Central FL) did NOT have a cooler than average summer this year. During late July - late August even the nights were really warm here (78-86F). Like Miami. This is typically the warmest time of year, but this year certainly outdid most. Last year (summer 2012) was perhaps a bit cooler than average, due to all the rain. That was wonderful, all the flora looked incredibly healthy and it was a bit less miserable of a summer than usual.


My backyard now resembles Jurassic Park. The elephant ears are larger than me. Summer was a beast of a growing season for my paleo-related plants.
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Quoting 367. georgevandenberghe:


The lower midwest and southeast had an unusually cool summer. New England was unusually warm. DC was into the warm anomaly area.


Orlando (Central FL) did NOT have a cooler than average summer this year. During late July - late August even the nights were really warm here (78-86F). Like Miami. This is typically the warmest time of year, but this year certainly outdid most. Last year (summer 2012) was perhaps a bit cooler than average, due to all the rain. That was wonderful, all the flora looked incredibly healthy and it was a bit less miserable of a summer than usual.
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Quoting 483. washingtonian115:
Good evening Naga :).I'm doing fine this evening although a little exhausted.But fine non the less.I'm glad you tore yourself from the blog and got out and about.Enjoying life with real friends and family.


Yeah, sometimes the wife let's me go explore Orlando, and by that I mean go to the pub. She's a great woman. :)
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Quoting 479. Naga5000:


Ahh..Hi Wash. I didn't disappear. How are things? :) I'm trying really hard to not get involved. I just got home and had a good night out. Good to see you on the blog. (also, I learned I have to put my real intentions in parenthesis so folks don't get confused, so I'm really happy to see your post and honestly care about how you're doing this evening)
Good evening Naga :).I'm doing fine this evening although a little exhausted.But fine non the less.I'm glad you tore yourself from the blog and got out and about.Enjoying life with real friends and family.
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good evening fellow Wunderbloggers.

Here's to another beautiful South Florida night.
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Fires Around Sydney, Australia



October 17, 2013, will go down as one of the worst fire days New South Wales, Australia, has seen in recent years. By 6:30 p.m. local time, 90 wildfires burned, 36 of them out of control threatening several communities near Sydney. Temperatures above 34° Celsius or 93° Fahrenheit, dry plants, and erratic winds gusting up to 90 kilometers (56 miles) per hour combined to create extremely dangerous fire conditions.
The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite acquired this image of the fires at 2:50 p.m. (3:50 UTC) on October 17. Fires that MODIS detected are outlined in red. In addition to the threat posed by the fires, the image shows that smoke pollution was a problem in populated coastal communities. The densest plume of smoke hangs directly over Sydney, though the brighter white streak is probably a cloud.
The largest of the fires shown here is the State Mine fire, burning in the Blue Mountains near the Lithgow area. The fire has burned more than 20,000 hectares and has damaged an unknown number of properties, said the New South Wales Rural Fire Service.
To the southeast is the dangerous Linksview Road fire, which was burning near the community of Springwood. Thousands of people have been evacuated because of this fire and the State Mine fire, and all impacted communities have received emergency warnings. Between the two fires, hundreds of homes may have been destroyed, reported ABC News.
The third large fire in the image is the Hall Road fire, Balmoral Village. Despite its size, it has caused little damage and is nearly under control. It may be a few days before the other fires are under control. Weather conditions are expected to improve, but the fire danger will remain high for the next couple of days.
References
Australian Broadcasting Corporation News (2013, October 17) Dozens of homes lost as bushfires ravage parts of New South Wales. Accessed October 17, 2013.
The Australian (2013, October 17) ‘Miracle’ if lives not list in NSW fires: premier. Accessed October 17, 2013.
New South Wales Rural Fire Service (2013, October 17) Current fires and incidents. Accessed October 17, 2013.
New South Wales Rural Fire Service (2013, October 18) Major Fire Updates. Accessed October 17, 2013 (US EDT).
NASA image courtesy Jeff Schmaltz, LANCE/EOSDIS MODIS Rapid Response Team at NASA GSFC. Caption by Holli Riebeek.
Instrument:
Aqua - MODIS
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Just because someone doesn't see eye to eye with someone doesn't mean they don't respect them.For a example.I may not see eye to eye with my girlfriends sometimes on certain subjects,but I still respect them.
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Quoting 475. washingtonian115:
Ya see when people have a belief that G.W is not occuring I just let them have their beleifs.Why?.because I owe these people nothing.I'm not getting paid to hold their hand and teach them and I'm not going to spend hours arguing with the same person.If some one has A.K.A "trollish behavior" why don't you just put them on ignore.

My wonderful theory has proven true again!.When W115 is in the house everyone disappears :).It comes in use at times like these.


Ahh..Hi Wash. I didn't disappear. How are things? :) I'm trying really hard to not get involved. I just got home and had a good night out. Good to see you on the blog. (also, I learned I have to put my real intentions in parenthesis so folks don't get confused, so I'm really happy to see your post and honestly care about how you're doing this evening)
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As usual in 2013.... activity is all AROUND me.

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477. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962013) 20131018 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
131018 0000 131018 1200 131019 0000 131019 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.8N 92.5W 10.2N 94.2W 10.8N 95.8W 11.6N 97.1W
BAMD 9.8N 92.5W 10.3N 94.4W 11.1N 95.8W 11.8N 96.8W
BAMM 9.8N 92.5W 10.4N 94.7W 11.4N 96.4W 12.2N 97.6W
LBAR 9.8N 92.5W 10.3N 94.7W 11.4N 97.0W 12.6N 99.2W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 28KTS 38KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 28KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
131020 0000 131021 0000 131022 0000 131023 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.2N 98.1W 13.2N 99.8W 14.2N 100.9W 14.4N 102.3W
BAMD 12.3N 97.6W 12.9N 98.8W 14.0N 99.4W 15.0N 99.9W
BAMM 12.8N 98.7W 13.6N 100.1W 14.3N 100.8W 14.5N 101.6W
LBAR 13.8N 101.0W 16.4N 102.8W 19.9N 101.5W 25.1N 96.4W
SHIP 48KTS 65KTS 65KTS 69KTS
DSHP 48KTS 65KTS 65KTS 69KTS

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Quoting 467. ncstorm:


I support fairness..and the truth as I see it. Why do you care who I support? We dont know each other? I'm just a blogger from NC who you will never meet. You will never deter my opinion on what I consider is the truth.

I sure dont come on here speaking for Dr. Masters and pretending that Dr. Masters is curled up in some corner wiping the tears off his laptop reading these comments. Its quite comical to see what lengths you guys will go to. One thing for sure, Dr. Masters may not be wiping tears from his eyes but I am sure am laughing at the attempts displayed on here..
Where the heck did you come up with the "wiping tears" meme - what a strange and vivid imagination!

I would seem logical that Dr.Masters is probably "disappointed" that so many people here reject his teachings and the settled science on which it is based - but "tears on his laptop"???. Give me a break!!

However, I take do offense when you publicly bash the teachings of Dr. Masters. He is a scientist that I very much appreciate and respect, not only for his knowledge and teaching of meteorology, but also his work in the field of climate science, and the passing of that knowledge to those of us who are willing to understand and learn, and don't reject his teachings with ridicule and attempted humor.
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Ya see when people have a belief that G.W is not occuring I just let them have their beleifs.Why?.because I owe these people nothing.I'm not getting paid to hold their hand and teach them and I'm not going to spend hours arguing with the same person.If some one has A.K.A "trollish behavior" why don't you just put them on ignore.

My wonderful theory has proven true again!.When W115 is in the house everyone disappears :).It comes in use at times like these.
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First run for 96E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0251 UTC FRI OCT 18 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962013) 20131018 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
131018 0000 131018 1200 131019 0000 131019 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.8N 92.5W 10.2N 94.2W 10.8N 95.8W 11.6N 97.1W
BAMD 9.8N 92.5W 10.3N 94.4W 11.1N 95.8W 11.8N 96.8W
BAMM 9.8N 92.5W 10.4N 94.7W 11.4N 96.4W 12.2N 97.6W
LBAR 9.8N 92.5W 10.3N 94.7W 11.4N 97.0W 12.6N 99.2W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 28KTS 38KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 28KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
131020 0000 131021 0000 131022 0000 131023 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.2N 98.1W 13.2N 99.8W 14.2N 100.9W 14.4N 102.3W
BAMD 12.3N 97.6W 12.9N 98.8W 14.0N 99.4W 15.0N 99.9W
BAMM 12.8N 98.7W 13.6N 100.1W 14.3N 100.8W 14.5N 101.6W
LBAR 13.8N 101.0W 16.4N 102.8W 19.9N 101.5W 25.1N 96.4W
SHIP 48KTS 65KTS 65KTS 69KTS
DSHP 48KTS 65KTS 65KTS 69KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.8N LONCUR = 92.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 9.5N LONM12 = 90.6W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 9.0N LONM24 = 87.7W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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Alright, good night guys, I have to leave..it was real..Xulonn, feel free to email me as you always do, I so enjoy reading them in the morning when I log on..goes great with my coffee..

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Quoting 463. Astrometeor:


I had assumed the same thing Brian.



I wish, that would be rather fun.


I betcha it would as well. I love brainstorming and coming up with inventive ideas. Its like marketing in some ways.
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Quoting 466. JohnLonergan:


We could all sign up for the upcoming Science of Climate Change online class starting next week on Coursera, I have, anyone else?

I'm considering it. I just have to figure out where I can borrow a cup of motivation.
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Quoting 455. Civicane49:


The other basins are producing storms like how rabbits produce babies.Fast!.Meanwhile the Atlantic is like a old fart.. it has gone barren...
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So um..yeah what about that gloomy weather?.It sure was today where I'am.These little disturbances in the atmosphere have brought us hit or miss sprinkles/showers.
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Quoting 466. JohnLonergan:


We could all sign up for the upcoming Science of Climate Change online class starting next week on Coursera, I have, anyone else?


Count me in..Will both of you be joining?
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Quoting 465. Xulonn:
Unfortunately, it's not a game - it's true. No insinuations - just observations.

No sympathy is needed - just recognition of the reality of the science that Dr. Masters teaches us here at his blog - it's easy to do if you approach the subject with critical thinking and trationality.

Please tell us, NC, why do you come to Dr. Masters blog and trash what he teaches and insult those who believe that he is telling us the truth? Why do you support those who attack Dr. Master's teachings with pseudoscience, cherry-picking and even outright falsehoods?


I support fairness..and the truth as I see it. Why do you care who I support? We dont know each other? I'm just a blogger from NC who you will never meet. You will never deter my opinion on what I consider is the truth.

I sure dont come on here speaking for Dr. Masters and pretending that Dr. Masters is curled up in some corner wiping the tears off his laptop reading these comments. Its quite comical to see what lengths you guys will go to. One thing for sure, Dr. Masters may not be wiping tears from his eyes but I am sure am from laughing at the attempts displayed on here..
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.