Category 2 Francisco Brushing Guam, and is a Long-Range Threat to Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:48 PM GMT on October 17, 2013

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Category 2 Typhoon Francisco is steadily intensifying over the warm waters of the Western Pacific about 160 miles southwest of Guam. The typhoon is expected to make its closest approach to Guam on Friday morning (local time), bringing sustained winds of 35 - 45 mph and heavy rain, as the storm heads north-northeast at 9 mph. Long range radar out of Guam and satellite loops show that Francisco is well-organized with an impressive area of heavy thunderstorms and a prominent eye. With warm waters that extend to great depth and low wind shear, continued strengthening is likely, and Francisco is forecast to become a major Category 4 typhoon by Saturday as it turns northwest towards Japan. Both the GFS and European models predict that Francisco will hit Japan on Wednesday or Thursday next week, though there is very high uncertainty in the storm's track that far into the future. Francisco's formation gives the Western Pacific 27 named storms so far in 2013, which is the average number of named storms for an entire year. The last time there were more than 27 tropical storms or typhoons in the Western Pacific was in 2004, when there were 32.


Figure 1. View of Typhoon Francisco from the long range radar out of Guam.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Francisco, taken at approximately 03 UTC on October 16, 2013. At the time, Francisco had top winds of about 85 mph. Image credit: NASA.

18 dead, 40+ missing in Japan after Typhoon Wipha
Typhoon Wipha roared past Japan on Tuesday as a Category 1 typhoon, bringing destructive winds and high rains that triggered flooding being blamed for at least 18 deaths. Most of the deaths occurred on Izu Oshima island, about 75 miles south of Tokyo. An astonishing 33.44" (824 mm) fell in just 23 hours on the island, triggering flash floods and mudslides that killed 17 people and left at least 40 missing. During one incredibly wet 6-hour period, 549.5 mm fell, setting a new 6-hour precipitation record for Japan. The previous record was 502.0 mm at Tarama, Okinawa, on April 28, 1988. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, the 24-hour total at Oshima Island was the third highest 24-hour rainfall for Japan on record; the record is 851.5 mm at Yanase (Kochi Prefecture) on 19 July 2011, and 2nd place is the 844 mm that fell at Takeshi (Nara) on 1 August 1982. Wipha is the fourth named storm to hit Japan so far in 2013, and the deadliest typhoon to hit Japan since Typhoon Tokage of October 2004. An average of 2.8 tropical storms or typhoons per year hit Japan during the period 1951 - 2003. Japan's record busiest year was 2004, when ten named storms hit, six of them at Category 1 or higher strength. Jeffrey Hayes has put together a nice summary of Japan's typhoon history.

The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days. NHC is giving 10% odds that an area of disturbed weather (Invest 99L) about 200 miles north-northeast of Bermuda headed northeast out to sea, will develop. During the last few days of October and the first week of November, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is predicted to transition into a phase that will bring an increase in upward-moving air over the Atlantic, boosting the odds of tropical storm formation. The most likely area for formation will be in the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 116. Torito:
swirly keeps on swirling.

Temps gonna be in the 30s next week first frost maybe ?
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swirly keeps on swirling.

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Nighttime snow potential?

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Quoting 111. StormTrackerScott:
Again folks the strongest MJO signal since early June which spawned Andrea is coming just in time for Late October and early November.



Also, Scott, I do not think we should ignore GFS "fantastyland". Because if I recall, the GFS was hinting at Andrea at the end of it's runs a month before she developed.

So what happens in "fantastyland" is unlikely, but not impossible.
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This is some trough folks. Wow if this keeps up then we are in for one heck of a Winter & Spring. Blizzards, tornado outbreaks, you name it we may have this winter.

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Again folks the strongest MJO signal since early June which spawned Andrea is coming just in time for Late October and early November.

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Quoting 107. Jedkins01:


It looks like quite a cold spell for north Florida, I'm set to go camping northeast of Mariana FL near the Florida/Georgia border next weekend since my birthday is on the 25th. Looks like its going to be refreshing and crisp if model trends continue...

I've noticed that we get our first real deep trough into Florida bringing colder air almost every year near or around October 25th.


Not so fast Jed very complex patten in place so buckle in.
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Quoting 103. Jedkins01:


50's at night :)


Look 2 days later. Summer returns with a vengence as tropical moisture combined with a active southern branch combine to bring a wet forecast the next several weeks across FL.





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Quoting 17. hydrus:
Francisco is impressive, and will be more so as the days go by..This looks like winter big time...


It looks like quite a cold spell for north Florida, I'm set to go camping northeast of Mariana FL near the Florida/Georgia border next weekend since my birthday is on the 25th. Looks like its going to be refreshing and crisp if model trends continue...

I've noticed that we get our first real deep trough into Florida bringing colder air almost every year near or around October 25th.
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Quoting 102. ricderr:
and there we have it....the first 100 comments on board...and not one mentioning our little northern invest


if you look back..i did invest 99
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be extra careful around the indian river lagoon folks...........................BREVARD COUNTY --
Concerns about deadly bacteria have leaders of a Brevard County educational program keeping kids out of the Indian River Lagoon.

This comes after a recent death in Volusia County and several others across the state.

Brevard Zoo education leaders, who run the program, have decided not to allow children who participate in the Lagoon Quest program in the water simply because of the perception that someone might get sick.

On Monday, around 40 local 4th graders participating in the Lagoon Quest program headed to the banks of the 150-mile-long Indian River Lagoon to study what's called the most biologically diverse estuary in North America. Some 4,000 species of animals like shrimp and crabs call the lagoon home.

For the past several years children would get into the water with the instructors, and using nets, catch marine life for study in their native habitat.

But the decision to keep them out of the water was made to lean on the side of caution. For now instructors are the only ones making contact with the water. The children are staying on the shoreline.

“We still get that excitement; it's not quite the same as going in the water. But right now with the perception of the fear of the potential bacteria, it's probably better for us to do it this way,” said Brevard Zoo Education Director Chris DeLorey.

DeLorey said he hopes to allow the hundreds of children who participate in the Lagoon Quest program back in the water soon. He said the bacteria is naturally occurring and has always been in the river.

According to the Brevard Health Department, people with pre-existing medical conditions are 80 times more likely to be affected by it than healthy people. The health department said they normally get a few cases of infection each year and said if you have an open wound and immune system issues, you should stay out of the water.

A special Indian River Lagoon workshop sponsored by Brevard County Commissioners is being held Thursday, Oct. 17 from 6 p.m. to 9 p.m. at the Lagoon House in Palm Bay to focus on the state of the lagoon.

Elected local, state and national leaders, and scientists specializing in working on the lagoon, will be there to answer questions from the public.
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Quoting 102. ricderr:
and there we have it....the first 100 comments on board...and not one mentioning our little northern invest




They took it off the floaters page.
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Quoting 100. LargoFl:
yes but if you look at the color coding..florida drops 10 degree's..which would put My area of florida in the mid 70's..that would be a welcomed event for me.


50's at night :)
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and there we have it....the first 100 comments on board...and not one mentioning our little northern invest


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Quoting 92. SFLWeatherman:
12Z GFS look at FL!!!!!!!!!!!:)
yes but if you look at the color coding..florida drops 10 degree's..which would put My area of florida in the mid 70's..that would be a welcomed event for me.
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I believe that any info pertinent to the formation of tropical cyclones and any changes in the Earths climate that increases or decreases the formation of tropical cyclones is on topic and more than relevant. Everytime someone makes an issue of it could actually keep relevant information off the blog, and in my opinion, is a shame.



yes heiny...for shame for shame...and then to blatantly attack our most wonderful moderators....they work tirelessly and without pay.....we need pedalstals for them...not such putdowns....please refrain from posting if all you can do is dirty the air with such dribble......please partake in the coffee shown above...it will make you feel better :-)
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Thanks Dr. I have no idea whether any of the recent anomalies in tropical storm activity are related to GW/Climate Change issues (and Dr.Gray/Klotzbach currently reject any discernible impacts on the Atlantic hurricane seasons). Either way, it will take additional decades of observation before anyone could "conclusively" determine (from a theoretical standpoint) whether these issues are actually impacting tropical storm activity on a worldwide/global basin basis.

Some scientists have suggested that different parts of the world will be impacted in different ways/geographical areas as a result of climate change and that seems logical; you will not have identical impacts over such a large global area.

The only anomalies I have noted recently, on the Atlantic side of tropical seasons are a) the incredible 2005 season, and b) the most recent 2012/and this 2013 season proliferance of tropical storms (versus expected major hurricanes) and an very active Pacific basin this season as well as noted in your blog.

Whether these recent anomalies are short-term or one time/season events remains to be seen. I will be curious to see how the next 10-20 years unfold, including what happens when the Atlantic basin multi-decadal cycle returns to a less-active phase and what happens in the Pacific basin and other tropics in the same period before jumping to a conclusion that GW/Climate Change is in fact starting to alter global tropical storm activity.

I am with Gray & Klotzbach on this one for the moment.

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Quoting 79. HeinrichFrogswatter:


Geez, get a sense of humor. I am not a denialist, please don't assume, but since the topic of the blog is tropical weather and the topic of the specific blog entry from today has nothing to do with AGW, it was rather obvious that the objective of the specific post that I commented on was to steer the conversation back to a fight about AGW. Supporting or not supporting AGW isn't relevant to the blog, but the conversation seems to head that way whenever people are bored.
I believe that any info pertinent to the formation of tropical cyclones and any changes in the Earths climate that increases or decreases the formation of tropical cyclones is on topic, and more than relevant. Everytime someone makes an issue of it could actually keep relevant information off the blog, and in my opinion, is a shame.
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Quoting 95. HeinrichFrogswatter:


There are no new rules, or any rules really, for that matter, just an arbitrary enforcement when the mood strikes. If you look at the Admin blog and the comments and responses about community standards, you will find that although the blogs have specific topics and comments are supposed to be relevant to that blog topic (in this case tropical weather) or the current blog entry, the admin and mods were pretty clear that they only enforce those rules when they feel like it.


Off-topic is very broad term.
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it seems like November will be a cold month according to the gfs
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Quoting 35. KeyWestSun:
Pleasant here at the moment. Sunny, but would mind a couple raindrops...


Probably have to wait until the weekend. At least that's what they're predicting in ECF.
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12Z GFS look at FL!!!!!!!!!!!:)
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Quoting 90. hurricanes2018:

I watch this video its make me thinking about the old days in the 70s and 80s!! great music and good movies from the 70s to now! notting happern to invest 99L this morning!!


Remember the new rule. No off-topic posts allowed anymore. XD
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I watch this video its make me thinking about the old days in the 70s and 80s!! great music and good movies from the 70s to now! notting happern to invest 99L this morning!!
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Thanks for the update, Have a Nice Day...
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Quoting 85. Torito:


Yea, that way it turns into another Dorian. xD


Yep, a Cat. 5 monster!
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Quoting 76. Torito:


"When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored."

:(

Edit: Hey, its fixed :D


Off topic is a broad term.
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Quoting 83. FunnelVortex:


Nah. It needs some popcorn convection.


Yea, that way it turns into another Dorian. xD
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144HR 12Z GFS look at all the cold!
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Quoting 82. Torito:


LOOOOL IKR. Lets give it the orange crayon just because it looks like a mini TD.


Nah. It needs some popcorn convection.
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Quoting 80. FunnelVortex:


Looks better than most of the storms this season.


LOOOOL IKR. Lets give it the orange crayon just because it looks like a mini TD.
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Quoting 59. SCConiferousForest:

Funny cuz all the mets here in the low country down by Hilton Head said this is the year of another Hugo. The pattern was supposed to be the same or somethingn like that. I actually got scared as the Oaks dropped their nuts early and the sassafras and sumacs changed early....getting scared for a while!! Phew!!!! O:)
for some reason i keep a good watch out for storms happening in November,we'll see what happens in the weeks to come....just because they Officially end hurricane season..doesnt mean those vicious storms dont still keep coming..we all remember Sandy up in the northeast.
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Quoting 77. Torito:
The swirly is back! :D



Looks better than most of the storms this season.
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Feature that originally formed on the tail of the front south of Brownsville now producing heavy precip at 102 hour.
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The swirly is back! :D

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Quoting 75. RitaEvac:
Government shutdown is over, the future is bright...VERY BRIGHT


"When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored."

:(

Edit: Hey, its fixed :D
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Government shutdown is over, the future is bright...VERY BRIGHT. So bright the sun is out and blue skies over SE TX is bringing in dry air and NASA employees back
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Interesting feature at 96 hours.
Front stalls out South of Brownsville and then comes back up to the coast with a lot of rain.
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Quoting ITCZmike:
anyone notice the wave around the southern Catl? Assuming this is still a tropical weather blog...

That is mostly intertropical conversion zone...trade winds to fast in the area; but sometimes something can pop out of the ITCZ...

Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 913
Quoting 61. Torito:
Eyewall replacement cycle in store for Francisco in the next few days? Sure looks like it, with the way the eye is getting smaller so fast...



A contracting eye with colder cloud tops around it means intensification, if you see the eye begin to cool then that'll probably signal an EWRC.
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Well at least the Atlantic update is a bit more active than before

Quoting Jeff Masters:
None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days. NHC is giving 10% odds that an area of disturbed weather (Invest 99L) about 200 miles north-northeast of Bermuda headed northeast out to sea, will develop. During the last few days of October and the first week of November, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is predicted to transition into a phase that will bring an increase in upward-moving air over the Atlantic, boosting the odds of tropical storm formation. The most likely area for formation will be in the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.