Dangerous Typhoon Wipha Drenching Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:45 PM GMT on October 15, 2013

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Large and powerful Category 1 Typhoon Wipha is bearing down on Japan as the storm races northeast at 28 mph. Wipha is likely to be the strongest typhoon to hit Japan since Typhoon Tokage of October 2004, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. Wipha is merging with a cold front and undergoing the transition to an extratropical storm--the same process Hurricane Sandy underwent as it approached landfall in October 2012. While Typhoon Wipha is not as powerful as Sandy, it does have a huge area of winds in excess of 50 knots (57.5 mph), which extend out 130 miles to the left of the center. Since the center of Wipha is expected to graze the southern coast of Japan today, and the storm will only weaken slightly, a 100-mile-wide swath of Japan will see damaging winds of 50 knots, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. About a 30 mile-wide swath of Japan will experience winds of 75 mph (hurricane force.) Tokyo will be right at the edge of the hurricane-force wind swath. With many trees still in leaf, these winds will cause widespread tree damage and downed power lines. The counter-clockwise flow of moist, tropical air around the center of Wipha is meeting up with the cold front currently over Japan. This is generating torrential rains over large portions of the country, as the moist air is forced upwards over the cold front, making the air expand and cool, condensing its copious moisture. Radar precipitation estimates show that rainfall rates of 1 - 2" per hour were occurring near Tokyo today. Heavy rains of 4 - 8" capable of causing damaging flooding will be widespread over Japan, including over the Fukushima nuclear site, where rainfall from Typhoon Man-Yi on September 16 complicated clean-up efforts of the reactors damaged by the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami.

Japan may not be all done with typhoons this month, as both the GFS and European models are predicting that an area of disturbed weather (Invest 93W) east of the Philippines will develop into a tropical storm late this week, which will then head northwest and threaten Japan by next Wednesday, October 23.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Wipha approaching Japan, taken at approximately 04:25 UTC on October 15, 2013. At the time, Wipha was a Category 1 storm with winds of 90 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Nari hits Vietnam
Torrential rains are falling in Southeast Asia due to Typhoon Nari, which made landfall near Da Nang around 03 UTC on Wednesday as a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds. The eye passed 10 miles south of Da Nang, putting the city in the stronger northern semicircle of the storm. Da Nang recorded top sustained winds of 55 mph, gusting to 81 mph, and picked up 4.06" of rain. Damage is heavy in Da Nang, and at least five deaths are being blamed on the storm. Nari battered the Philippines on Friday, killing thirteen people and leaving 2.1 million people without power on the main Philippine island of Luzon.

The Atlantic is quiet
The tropical wave (Invest 98L) a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands that we've been tracking this week has been torn apart by high winds, and is no longer a threat to develop. There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Octave (top) and Tropical Storm Priscilla (bottom) taken at approximately 18:30 UTC (2:30 pm EDT) on October 14, 2013. At the time, Octave had top winds of 50 mph, and Priscilla had top winds of 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Depression Octave in the Eastern Pacific bringing needed rain to Texas
In the Eastern Pacific, we have two tropical cyclones: Tropical Storm Priscilla, a minimal-strength tropical storm that is weakening and heading northwest out to sea, and Tropical Depression Octave, which hit Mexico's Baja Peninsula early Wednesday morning. Octave and Priscilla are embedded in a large plume of tropical moisture that is riding up to the northeast over Mexico and Texas. Flood watches and warnings are posted over much of the southern half of Texas, where widespread rains of 2 - 6" have fallen over the past two days. While the heavy rains have caused some minor to moderate flooding, the precipitation is mostly welcome, as it will make a substantial dent in the multi-year drought that has gripped much of Texas.


Video 1. Waterspout observed offshore of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico on October 14, 2013, as rains bands from Tropical Storm Octave moved over the Baja Peninsula.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 235. StormTrackerScott:


El-Nino will develope by the end of Winter which could mean a cold spring as well.

It will? Based on what?

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31413
Quoting 232. StormTrackerScott:


I know we are entering a cool period which could last 20 to 30 years also the number of major hurricane could fall off drastically which means many more seasons like this to come.
I think its a valid question I hope the doc lets us have a global cooling topic once the hurricane season officially ends...I remember as a kid up in the northeast..the BIG snowstorms...then as i grew older up there..all of a sudden..6 inches was a Big storm..grew less and less..as we warmed up..so we'll see in 5-10-15 years if the Big snowstorms and colder winters return........some scientist said..global cooling could be so much worse than global warming,especially if it carries on for the long term....think ice ages.
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238. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #60A
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON WIPHA (T1326)
7:00 AM JST October 16 2013
======================================

East Southeast Of Chiba Prefecture

At 22:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Wipha (955 hPa) located at 35.0N 140.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 36 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in east quadrant
150 NM from the center in west quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
500 NM from the center in east quadrant
325 NM from the center in west quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
Next Hour: 35.5N 141.2E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Chiba Prefecture
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44697
Kyodo News, Oct. 15, 2013 at 8:46a JST: Typhoon Wipha, the 26th typhoon of the year, was traveling northward around 260 km east of Minamidaito at a speed of 25 kph as of 6 a.m. Tuesday, according to [Japan's Meteorological Agency]. It had an atmospheric pressure at its center of 940 hectopascals and was packing winds of up to 216 kph.

Pallis Sun, Oct. 14, 2013: A hybrid storm, similar to some of the features that Hurricane Sandy and Wipha, could bring an expanded area of high winds and pounding surf along with several inches of rain to the vulnerable nuclear plant. Ryan Maue, a meteorologist at WeatherBell Analytics told Climate Central that the storm poses a “huge flood potential” for the Fukushima area. “Wipha is extra-large size-wise,” Maue said, predicting it will grow and strengthen as it makes its closest pass to Japan. A major storm with high surf, strong winds, and heavy rainfall likely would complicate cleanup efforts, or possibly pose an even greater danger to the facility. Hybrid storm systems may not be good news for Tokyo and Fukushima as they can cause storms to intensify and expand in size, resulting in a broader wind field and a higher potential for storm surge. Computer models show the potential for 40-foot waves off the coast of Japan. Anyone for Tuna, wouldn't that be nice.
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Quoting 233. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The GFS shows the factors at war for this winter season. The -NAO and +PNA will want to allow the arctic air to leak into the East but with a -PDO and cool-based Neutral, a ridge over the West Atlantic may prevent this from occurring.

Funny you mention the negative PDO.The mets over at CWG think that if it's in a weaker state cold air may be able to funnel into the east this winter.I'm hoping so.I don't want spring back to back.
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Quoting 233. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The GFS shows the factors at war for this winter season. The -NAO and +PNA will want to allow the arctic air to leak into the East but with a -PDO and cool-based Neutral, a ridge over the West Atlantic may prevent this from occurring.



El-Nino will develope by the end of Winter which could mean a cold spring as well.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
Quoting 229. LargoFl:
check this out.......


This could put many GW alarmist out of a job.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
The GFS shows the factors at war for this winter season. The negative NAO and positive PNA will want to allow the arctic air to leak into the East but with a negative PDO and cool-based Neutral, a ridge over the West Atlantic may prevent this from occurring.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31413
Quoting 229. LargoFl:
check this out.......


I know we are entering a cool period which could last 20 to 30 years also the number of major hurricane could fall off drastically which means many more seasons like this to come.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
Quoting 226. StormTrackerScott:


Midwest is in for it! Very cold air coming down from Northern Canada being depicted on all the models starting this weekend.


we here in eastern NC havent had a summer and its been pretty cool..coats for morning bus stops..



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14406
Glorious.

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Quoting 219. StormTrackerScott:
Where are all of those GW tree huggers now. Looking more like North American Cooling. LOL!
check this out.......
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Quoting 212. StormTrackerScott:
18Z GFS is unleashing Arctic air all across the Mid West! This could go down as the coldest October Cold Outbreak on record.

Please stop. It will be cooler relative to average, that much looks likely. However, to say it's going to be the "coldest October Cold Outbreak on record" is stretching it. By a lot.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31413
All time records will fall if this verifies folks.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
Quoting 222. washingtonian115:
It won't be cold here in D.C with snow.So I don't care.


Midwest is in for it! Very cold air coming down from Northern Canada being depicted on all the models starting this weekend.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
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Quoting 210. txjac:


So you dont worry about Fukishma? All the poison that is Fukishma? Scares me more than AGW. It's an immediate danger and will be for quite some time

We've exploded thousands of nuclear bombs for gosh sakes. Check out this animated map. Global warming will have longer term consequences. It will be our children's special way of growing old--as if that process weren't cruel enough already.
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Quoting 221. ncstorm:


is that snow?? and for whom?


Denver
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
Quoting 212. StormTrackerScott:
18Z GFS is unleashing Arctic air all across the Mid West! This could go down as the coldest October Cold Outbreak on record.
It won't be cold here in D.C with snow.So I don't care.
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Quoting 218. StormTrackerScott:
OUCH!



is that snow?? and for whom?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14406
Quoting 210. txjac:


So you dont worry about Fukishma? All the poison that is Fukishma? Scares me more than AGW. It's an immediate danger and will be for quite some time


well..I dont believe in....LOL..so I'm good there..I really think the people in charge have a handle on things over there..some people want to make things seem drastic without even setting foot over there..we were supposed to have met our maker a long time ago according to the fukishma posts..and if it explodes, it was just our time...I'm not sitting over here thousands of miles away fretting on something I have no control over..

you will be okay..:)
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14406
Where are all of those GW tree huggers now. Looking more like North American Cooling. LOL!
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
OUCH!

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
217. VR46L
@NCstorm LMAO !!!

But Yeah you are right .. it kind of like the world is nigh ... when reading some days !
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LOL!

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
hmmm next wens...................
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When one knows the stability of all those MOX Fuel Assemblies in # 4, and how they plan to remove them, "manually", well get back to us here in reality land after your presser on the actualities there.

Fresca?





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127528

Quoting 208. Dakster:
Are we getting ready to seal the history books for the 2013 season, yet?

(I know not officially until Nov. 30th rolls around, but seems like it may be done)



I'm waiting for November 30th, to officially give the 2013 Hurricane Season the crow
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18Z GFS is unleashing Arctic air all across the Mid West! This could go down as the coldest October Cold Outbreak on record.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
Quoting 205. txjac:


I, for one, am so ready for more rain.
just went thru the models til saturday..looks like there's a good chance for you folks...good luck over there..by me its drying out nicely..
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210. txjac
Quoting 207. ncstorm:
so whats on the doom scenario today..Fukishma exploding again and leaking radiation into the atmosphere and killing all life? Every time a storm heads that way, it will be the end to all life on Earth due to some posts..personally, I thought zombies in Florida was the best doom day scenario ever on here..


So you dont worry about Fukishma? All the poison that is Fukishma? Scares me more than AGW. It's an immediate danger and will be for quite some time
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Quoting 164. congaline:
I'd like a source for real info about the Fukishima power plant and radiation it's releasing, can only get rumor on most sites. Any good sources available you know of?


Just did a couple of google searches, and found live data on radiation readings in Japan and in the Fukushima area; however I'm not entirely certain that the data is 100% accurate.

Institute for Information Design Japan Japan Radiation Map

Various Data and Maps are available from Safecast

atmc.jp's Radioactive list offers graphs of the radioactive levels for various locations throughout japan (NOTE: This Website is only in Japanese and I had to use Google Chrome's auto translate function for this one)
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Are we getting ready to seal the history books for the 2013 season, yet?

(I know not officially until Nov. 30th rolls around, but seems like it may be done)
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so whats on the doom scenario today..Fukishma exploding again and leaking radiation into the atmosphere and killing all life? Every time a storm heads that way, it will be the end to all life on Earth due to some posts..personally, I thought zombies in Florida was the best doom day scenario ever on here..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14406
206. VR46L
Quoting 205. txjac:


I, for one, am so ready for more rain.


You always are :)

Mind you the last few days must be a treat in the same way as no rain and sunshine is for me ...
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205. txjac
Quoting 200. LargoFl:
LOOKS like coastal texas gets the rains this weekend...........


I, for one, am so ready for more rain.
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934mb for 93W this run.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31413
Welcome. There's been more in the last hour. The total is now 243 mm or 9.567" (9.57")
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Check out the carribean mid next week...........
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201. yoboi
Quoting 197. DonnieBwkGA:


The metric measurements rounded to those figures in inches. Adding together the metric measurements yielded 9.15"


I was adding the inches thanks for clearing that up.....
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LOOKS like coastal texas gets the rains this weekend...........
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Low wind shear and the MJO should match up in 5 to 7 days in the SW Caribbean. Look for at least one more TC this season in the Atlantic.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127528
Quoting 196. yoboi:


9.16???;)


The metric measurements rounded to those figures in inches. Adding together the metric measurements yielded 9.15"

69 mm Oct 15 2.736"
163 mm Oct 16 6.417"

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196. yoboi
Quoting 162. DonnieBwkGA:
Tokyo had 69.5 mm of rain on October 15 (2.74") and 163 mm (6.42") of rain in the first 6 hours of October 16.

9.15" of rain in 17 hours.


9.16???;)
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Quoting 189. hydrus:
That is a splendid sight for dry, parched Texas if I say so myself.
and its the good kind of rain,sread out for days and days...and octave isnt there yet whats left of him.
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194. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


large area of gale force winds for Japan.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44697
193. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31
6:00 AM JST October 16 2013
=====================================

Near Marianas Island

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 13.4N 146.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 14.0N 142.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Island
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44697
Tokyo rainfall is easing. Only 10.5 mm in last hour. The previous two hours each had more than 40 mm.

Tokyo has had 9.57" of rain in the past 18 hours (243 mm)
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Typoon Wipha has passed Tateyama and Katsuura, which had a pressure of 958.7 mb, the lowest in mainland Japan so far. Typhoon Wipha is approaching Choshi, which sticks out. Choshi may have the lowest pressure in 'mainland' Japan from this storm in the next hour or two.



The clickable map of Chiba prefecture is here.

The clickable map of Fukushima prefecture is here. The Fukushima nuclear plant is between the stations Namie and Tomioka. I have to go.
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Quoting 185. Patrap:
Well I'm not uptight
Not unattracted
Turn me on tonight
Cause I'm radioactive
Radioactive



I know this song...Halsey acted stupidly..:)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.