Dangerous Typhoon Wipha Drenching Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:45 PM GMT on October 15, 2013

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Large and powerful Category 1 Typhoon Wipha is bearing down on Japan as the storm races northeast at 28 mph. Wipha is likely to be the strongest typhoon to hit Japan since Typhoon Tokage of October 2004, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. Wipha is merging with a cold front and undergoing the transition to an extratropical storm--the same process Hurricane Sandy underwent as it approached landfall in October 2012. While Typhoon Wipha is not as powerful as Sandy, it does have a huge area of winds in excess of 50 knots (57.5 mph), which extend out 130 miles to the left of the center. Since the center of Wipha is expected to graze the southern coast of Japan today, and the storm will only weaken slightly, a 100-mile-wide swath of Japan will see damaging winds of 50 knots, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. About a 30 mile-wide swath of Japan will experience winds of 75 mph (hurricane force.) Tokyo will be right at the edge of the hurricane-force wind swath. With many trees still in leaf, these winds will cause widespread tree damage and downed power lines. The counter-clockwise flow of moist, tropical air around the center of Wipha is meeting up with the cold front currently over Japan. This is generating torrential rains over large portions of the country, as the moist air is forced upwards over the cold front, making the air expand and cool, condensing its copious moisture. Radar precipitation estimates show that rainfall rates of 1 - 2" per hour were occurring near Tokyo today. Heavy rains of 4 - 8" capable of causing damaging flooding will be widespread over Japan, including over the Fukushima nuclear site, where rainfall from Typhoon Man-Yi on September 16 complicated clean-up efforts of the reactors damaged by the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami.

Japan may not be all done with typhoons this month, as both the GFS and European models are predicting that an area of disturbed weather (Invest 93W) east of the Philippines will develop into a tropical storm late this week, which will then head northwest and threaten Japan by next Wednesday, October 23.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Wipha approaching Japan, taken at approximately 04:25 UTC on October 15, 2013. At the time, Wipha was a Category 1 storm with winds of 90 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Nari hits Vietnam
Torrential rains are falling in Southeast Asia due to Typhoon Nari, which made landfall near Da Nang around 03 UTC on Wednesday as a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds. The eye passed 10 miles south of Da Nang, putting the city in the stronger northern semicircle of the storm. Da Nang recorded top sustained winds of 55 mph, gusting to 81 mph, and picked up 4.06" of rain. Damage is heavy in Da Nang, and at least five deaths are being blamed on the storm. Nari battered the Philippines on Friday, killing thirteen people and leaving 2.1 million people without power on the main Philippine island of Luzon.

The Atlantic is quiet
The tropical wave (Invest 98L) a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands that we've been tracking this week has been torn apart by high winds, and is no longer a threat to develop. There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Octave (top) and Tropical Storm Priscilla (bottom) taken at approximately 18:30 UTC (2:30 pm EDT) on October 14, 2013. At the time, Octave had top winds of 50 mph, and Priscilla had top winds of 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Depression Octave in the Eastern Pacific bringing needed rain to Texas
In the Eastern Pacific, we have two tropical cyclones: Tropical Storm Priscilla, a minimal-strength tropical storm that is weakening and heading northwest out to sea, and Tropical Depression Octave, which hit Mexico's Baja Peninsula early Wednesday morning. Octave and Priscilla are embedded in a large plume of tropical moisture that is riding up to the northeast over Mexico and Texas. Flood watches and warnings are posted over much of the southern half of Texas, where widespread rains of 2 - 6" have fallen over the past two days. While the heavy rains have caused some minor to moderate flooding, the precipitation is mostly welcome, as it will make a substantial dent in the multi-year drought that has gripped much of Texas.


Video 1. Waterspout observed offshore of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico on October 14, 2013, as rains bands from Tropical Storm Octave moved over the Baja Peninsula.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 286. ScottLincoln:

What exactly do you mean? Have you just now discovered that internal climate variability?

It's the noise on top of the trend, especially on regional scales. Internal variability is a manifestation of how heat energy moves around in the climate system, but cannot create or destroy heat. ENSO has similar affects in the Pacific. And the PDO too. Not groundbreaking.


However all of the recent record Global temperatures are a result of the (18 year warm based AMO) Which the info provided shows that we have had these warm periods before. Now that we are likely entering a cool period then Arctic Seas ice should recover greatly over the coming years. We will see.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
Quoting 272. hydrus:
I want to...long as its productive...pfft.., pop....guzzle..


I admit, it is kind of entertaining seeing the people on the "we are all going to die as the planet uncontrollably overheats" train and the "we are all going to die as the planet dramatically overcools" train go at it.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
Quoting 282. ScottLincoln:

Not exactly. Cold isn't an energy that needs to be transferred. Cold is an absence of heat energy.
Dumbest quote of the night. You must be bad at science. Cold is transferred.Heat Transfer
www.g9toengineering.com/resources/heattransfer.ht m
Member Since: August 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 522
Lake Pontchartrain Freezes - December,25-27th 1989

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127559
Quoting 263. StormTrackerScott:
How are the GW alrmist going to explain my post above. I think the GW people need to read this.

Link

What exactly do you mean? Have you just now discovered that internal climate variability exists?

It's the noise on top of the trend, especially on regional scales. Internal variability is a manifestation of how heat energy moves around in the climate system, but cannot create or destroy heat. ENSO has similar affects in the Pacific. And the PDO too. Not groundbreaking.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3168
Quoting 271. hydrus:
the 70,s had all kinds of wicked winter weather. The winter of 76-77 was bad for the N.E. It did not get above freezing for 2 months where I was at. It actually froze our 4 wheel drive to the ground and we snapped an axle...good thing it did not snap both, we could still drive it.:)
Ask the old folks about the 20's in Arkansas. Going to school was a little different than nowadays.
Member Since: August 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 522
Quoting 281. ncstorm:
whatever happened to Jim Cantore at Pensacola Beach for Karen? I know he was there waiting on the last ride of the season....

he just left cause the storm fading .. and well who knows maybe he will have a last ride ya never know
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Obviously there is a serious lack of understanding of climate forcings here. There;s plenty of research out there.

"It is indeed possible that multidecadal climate variability, especially cycles originating in the Atlantic, could be contributing to recent warming, particularly in the Arctic. However, the amplitude of the cycles simply can't explain the observed temperature change. Internal variability has always been superimposed on top of global surface temperature trends, but the magnitude - as well as the fingerprints - of current warming clearly indicates that anthropogenic greenhouse gases are the dominant factor."

Here are some papers on AMO and North American Air Temperature and Arctic: Link Link

And finally for an explanation of how AGW relates to the AMO, here: Link
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3260
Quoting 251. Look2thesky:
Just thinking out loud, if nature uses hurricanes and tropical storms to transfer heat to the upper latitudes, would it not seem logical that she would transfer cold from the arctic to the lower latitudes in an overheated world. Nature loves her balance. Just thinking...

Not exactly. Cold isn't an energy that needs to be transferred. Cold is an absence of heat energy.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3168
whatever happened to Jim Cantore at Pensacola Beach for Karen? I know he was there waiting on the last ride of the season....
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14462
Quoting 251. Look2thesky:
Just thinking out loud, if nature uses hurricanes and tropical storms to transfer heat to the upper latitudes, would it not seem logical that she would transfer cold from the arctic to the lower latitudes in an overheated world. Nature loves her balance. Just thinking...
Quoting someone who does horrible craftsmanship, but is much more successful than I, "You know what your problem is, You think to much. Heh , Heh". Road salt and fire wood is hard to sell in the summer, but boy howdy does it move off the shelves in the winter.
Member Since: August 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 522
Sorry TA..I accidently added my statement to your comment..removed..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14462
Quoting 274. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 18z GEFS shows it getting cool here around the 24th



its been cool..the cloud covering has been keeping the temps lowered than forecast....another cold front is expected this weekend..

Tuesday, October 15
Clear Late
Clouds Early/Clearing Late 71%uFFFD
63%uFFFD
View Detailed Hourly %uFFFD
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14462
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127559
Wonderful article on Tim Samaras from National Geographic...
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Can a brotha get a JB tweet ?

A wattsupwitdat graph maybe?

: )




CO2 levels are monitored daily at Mauna Loa Observatory on the island of Hawaii. When the monitoring station was set up in 1958, CO2 levels were at 317ppm. The rise to 400 ppm was not expected so soon. Meanwhile, the Canadian government has joined in a global commitment to hold concentrations of greenhouse gases to levels that would avoid allowing global average temperatures to rise by 2 C. Scientists have marked that wide red hazard line in a band between 425-450 ppm.

Avoiding 2 C is critical because it represents a danger zone. Some refer to it as a point of no return -- or a "tipping point" to self-accelerating global warming, the so-called "runaway greenhouse effect." The actual tipping point might be 2.5 C, or it could be 1.5 C. Two degrees represents a consensus of scientists, but no scientist I know is sanguine about two degrees. It is certainly not a safe zone.

The most recent International Energy Agency (IEA) World Energy Outlook includes some number crunching. If all the world's known reserves of fossil fuels were to be used, the climate would move the world to a non-habitable state.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127559
The 18z GEFS shows it getting cool here around the 24th.


Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31463
Quoting 254. StormTrackerScott:


Good for the CPC other models say different.
Wasn`t supposedly last year to be an El Niño? It didn`t happen this year might be the same imo we are staying at neutral.
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Quoting 270. FunnelVortex:


Are you trying to prompt an argument?

I want to...long as its productive...pfft.., pop....guzzle..
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Quoting 249. LargoFl:
young folks wont remember this...1978.......
the 70,s had all kinds of wicked winter weather. The winter of 76-77 was bad for the N.E. It did not get above freezing for 2 months where I was at. It actually froze our 4 wheel drive to the ground and we snapped an axle...good thing it did not snap both, we could still drive it.:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 263. StormTrackerScott:
How are the GW alrmist going to explain my post above. I think the GW people need to read this.

Link


Are you trying to prompt an argument?

Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
important to note that the hurricane season has not ended and there is a shot at development in the Southwestern Caribbean Sea the waters there are very warm and shear could always relax and allow thunderstorms to develop into a closed llc by the way here is the typical track for october storms

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Quoting 234. StormTrackerScott:


This could put many GW alarmist out of a job.
The Earth is going to burst into flames that reach and scorch the Sun...am i unemployed..?.:)
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StormTrackerScott as a friend of yours I'm telling you now to stop this
Quoting 263. StormTrackerScott:
How are the GW alrmist going to explain my post above. I think the GW people need to read this.

Link


instigate
%u02C8insti%u02CCg%u0101t/Submit
verb
1.
bring about or initiate (an action or event).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...AND MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD NEAR OR
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14014
Quoting 251. Look2thesky:
Just thinking out loud, if nature uses hurricanes and tropical storms to transfer heat to the upper latitudes, would it not seem logical that she would transfer cold from the arctic to the lower latitudes in an overheated world. Nature loves her balance. Just thinking...


She does send down a lot of cold fronts.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
well I do notice the uptick in postings when we started talking winter..everyone has memories about winter..when the hurricane season ends we might get some great winter topics going here if you all want to...well for me thats it..good night folks....and I perked another pot of Blog Coffee for you and the night crew who should be here soon..again..good night and stay safe out there..
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How are the GW alrmist going to explain my post above. I think the GW people need to read this.

Link
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
winter can be very hard on the northeast..this one I surely remember..almost lost a finger to frostbite shoveling snow
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I'd maybe look at the last 150 years of data and the up tick in the Warming due to burning Fossil Fuels and what the expected low end rise is thru 2100, before considering any Ice age to come.



There is a tipping point to a runaway effect in the long run if we continue down the path were on.

Crossing the 400 ppm line: Concentration of carbon dioxide reaches tipping point
BY ELIZABETH MAY | MAY 28, 2013


We have now crossed a dangerous line in the global build up of greenhouse gases. Greenhouse gas concentrations have moved from the pre-Industrial Revolution level that never exceeded 280 parts per million (ppm) to a new daily average of 400 ppm, reached last week.

Over a period of the last million years, CO2 never exceeded 280 ppm (based on actual readings of atmospheric chemistry from Antarctic ice-core data). The last time greenhouse gases reached 400 ppm was three million years ago. Put simply, humanity has now changed the chemistry of our atmosphere to replicate pre-historic levels -- a time when no humans existed.


One can write any personal entry on whatever here, as it's a good thing to have, the freedom to write ones own opines and thoughts for the archive as well.

I encourage all bloggers to use that right for free here.
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TCFP
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Extreme AMO levels both cool and warm have clearly affected each of the following warm and cool global periods to account for the extreme global temperature anomalies
Note that all AMO levels shown are annual average figures.
RECORD AMO LEVELS DURING RECENT EXTREME WARM AND COLD PERIODS

1900-1926 COOL PERIODS [AMO NEGATIVE]
Lowest global temperature anomalies ever especially 1902-1913
1904 -0.345[ 4th lowest ever
1913 -0 .386[ 2ND lowest ever]
1920 -0.330[6th lowest ever

1926-1944 WARM PERIOD [AMO POSITIVE]
[Last global warming period prior to the 1994-2008 warming, the period of the 1930’s drought & dust bowl]
1944 0.360 2nd warmest]
1937 0.304 6th warmest ever]

1964-1976 COOL PERIOD [AMO NEGATIVE]
[Latest cool phase post early 1900’s especially 1964-1976]
1974- 0.405[lowest ever]
1976-0.349 [ 3rd lowest ever]
1972 –0.338[ 5th lowest]

1994 -2008 WARM PERIOD [AMO POSITIVE]
[Latest global warming period]
1998 0.402[highest ever]
2005 0.326[3rd highest]
2006 0.306[ 4th highest
2003 0.266[8th highest]
2004 0.240[10th highest
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
Quoting 251. Look2thesky:
Just thinking out loud, if nature uses hurricanes and tropical storms to transfer heat to the upper latitudes, would it not seem logical that she would transfer cold from the arctic to the lower latitudes in an overheated world. Nature loves her balance. Just thinking...
thats a great point made there
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Quoting 254. StormTrackerScott:


Good for the CPC other models say different.

And those models have been wrong. Significant warm bias for several years now. I wonder what happened to the moderate El Nino they were predicting for last year? What about this year too?

But I'll leave you alone for tonight. :)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31463
Interesting tidbit for the Florida folk on here in regards to the AMO.

Florida rainfall
The AMO has a strong effect on Florida rainfall. Rainfall in central and south Florida becomes more plentiful when the Atlantic is in its warm phase and droughts and wildfires are more frequent in the cool phase. As a result of these variations, the inflow to Lake Okeechobee — the reservoir for South Florida’s water supply — changes by as much as 40% between AMO extremes. In northern Florida the relationship begins to reverse — less rainfall when the Atlantic is warm.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current /al_rCUMP_048.gif

maybe the caribbean will wake up
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Quoting 250. Tropicsweatherpr:


On what reasoning? CPC says Neutral thru Spring.


Good for the CPC other models say different.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
Notice what happend this year. This is the reason for the recent dud hurricane season. For the kids out there this is the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation .

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
Quoting 226. StormTrackerScott:


Midwest is in for it! Very cold air coming down from Northern Canada being depicted on all the models starting this weekend.


Our 10 day forecast is calling for nighttime lows around 30.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
Just thinking out loud, if nature uses hurricanes and tropical storms to transfer heat to the upper latitudes, would it not seem logical that she would transfer cold from the arctic to the lower latitudes in an overheated world. Nature loves her balance. Just thinking...
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Quoting 248. StormTrackerScott:


I know been awhile but 2014 will be an El-Nino year chances are this will happen. That means another dud of a hurricane season.


On what reasoning? CPC says Neutral thru Spring.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14014
young folks wont remember this...1978.......
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Quoting 244. hydrus:
El Nino.?...wutz that.?..:)


I know been awhile but 2014 will be an El-Nino year chances are this will happen. That means another dud of a hurricane season.
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Quoting 227. StormTrackerScott:
All time records will fall if this verifies folks.

Its a monstah vortex..
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Quoting 236. washingtonian115:
Funny you mention the negative PDO.The mets over at CWG think that if it's in a weaker state cold air may be able to funnel into the east this winter.I'm hoping so.I don't want spring back to back.

I hope it weakens. It's been ruining winters for a long time now. Haven't seen measurable snow in 3 years now.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31463
Quoting 235. StormTrackerScott:


El-Nino will develope by the end of Winter which could mean a cold spring as well.
El Nino.?...wutz that.?..:)
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Quoting 241. hydrus:
Good post. I have a theory also. I want to put it on the blog for I know there will be some interesting feedback..:)
yes Hydrus..this will make for a great topic
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Quoting 230. 1900hurricane:
Glorious.

I thought I heard something like a match being extinguished in a glass of water....ssssst..
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Quoting 239. LargoFl:
I think its a valid question I hope the doc lets us have a global cooling topic once the hurricane season officially ends...I remember as a kid up in the northeast..the BIG snowstorms...then as i grew older up there..all of a sudden..6 inches was a Big storm..grew less and less..as we warmed up..so we'll see in 5-10-15 years if the Big snowstorms and colder winters return........some scientist said..global cooling could be so much worse than global warming,especially if it carries on for the long term....think ice ages.
Good post. I have a theory also. I want to put it on the blog for I know there will be some interesting feedback..:)
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Quoting 235. StormTrackerScott:


El-Nino will develope by the end of Winter which could mean a cold spring as well.

It will? Based on what?

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31463

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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