Dangerous Typhoon Wipha Drenching Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:45 PM GMT on October 15, 2013

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Large and powerful Category 1 Typhoon Wipha is bearing down on Japan as the storm races northeast at 28 mph. Wipha is likely to be the strongest typhoon to hit Japan since Typhoon Tokage of October 2004, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. Wipha is merging with a cold front and undergoing the transition to an extratropical storm--the same process Hurricane Sandy underwent as it approached landfall in October 2012. While Typhoon Wipha is not as powerful as Sandy, it does have a huge area of winds in excess of 50 knots (57.5 mph), which extend out 130 miles to the left of the center. Since the center of Wipha is expected to graze the southern coast of Japan today, and the storm will only weaken slightly, a 100-mile-wide swath of Japan will see damaging winds of 50 knots, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. About a 30 mile-wide swath of Japan will experience winds of 75 mph (hurricane force.) Tokyo will be right at the edge of the hurricane-force wind swath. With many trees still in leaf, these winds will cause widespread tree damage and downed power lines. The counter-clockwise flow of moist, tropical air around the center of Wipha is meeting up with the cold front currently over Japan. This is generating torrential rains over large portions of the country, as the moist air is forced upwards over the cold front, making the air expand and cool, condensing its copious moisture. Radar precipitation estimates show that rainfall rates of 1 - 2" per hour were occurring near Tokyo today. Heavy rains of 4 - 8" capable of causing damaging flooding will be widespread over Japan, including over the Fukushima nuclear site, where rainfall from Typhoon Man-Yi on September 16 complicated clean-up efforts of the reactors damaged by the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami.

Japan may not be all done with typhoons this month, as both the GFS and European models are predicting that an area of disturbed weather (Invest 93W) east of the Philippines will develop into a tropical storm late this week, which will then head northwest and threaten Japan by next Wednesday, October 23.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Wipha approaching Japan, taken at approximately 04:25 UTC on October 15, 2013. At the time, Wipha was a Category 1 storm with winds of 90 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Nari hits Vietnam
Torrential rains are falling in Southeast Asia due to Typhoon Nari, which made landfall near Da Nang around 03 UTC on Wednesday as a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds. The eye passed 10 miles south of Da Nang, putting the city in the stronger northern semicircle of the storm. Da Nang recorded top sustained winds of 55 mph, gusting to 81 mph, and picked up 4.06" of rain. Damage is heavy in Da Nang, and at least five deaths are being blamed on the storm. Nari battered the Philippines on Friday, killing thirteen people and leaving 2.1 million people without power on the main Philippine island of Luzon.

The Atlantic is quiet
The tropical wave (Invest 98L) a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands that we've been tracking this week has been torn apart by high winds, and is no longer a threat to develop. There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Octave (top) and Tropical Storm Priscilla (bottom) taken at approximately 18:30 UTC (2:30 pm EDT) on October 14, 2013. At the time, Octave had top winds of 50 mph, and Priscilla had top winds of 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Depression Octave in the Eastern Pacific bringing needed rain to Texas
In the Eastern Pacific, we have two tropical cyclones: Tropical Storm Priscilla, a minimal-strength tropical storm that is weakening and heading northwest out to sea, and Tropical Depression Octave, which hit Mexico's Baja Peninsula early Wednesday morning. Octave and Priscilla are embedded in a large plume of tropical moisture that is riding up to the northeast over Mexico and Texas. Flood watches and warnings are posted over much of the southern half of Texas, where widespread rains of 2 - 6" have fallen over the past two days. While the heavy rains have caused some minor to moderate flooding, the precipitation is mostly welcome, as it will make a substantial dent in the multi-year drought that has gripped much of Texas.


Video 1. Waterspout observed offshore of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico on October 14, 2013, as rains bands from Tropical Storm Octave moved over the Baja Peninsula.

Jeff Masters

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Here is a special statement by the Guam NWS regarding 93W.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
840 AM CHST WED OCT 16 2013

GUZ001>004-161200-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
840 AM CHST WED OCT 16 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE MARIANAS TODAY...

AT 800 AM THIS MORNING...A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WAS
CENTERED NEAR 13.5 DEGREES NORTH AND 146.5 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS
ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF GUAM AND 125 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
SAIPAN. LATEST INDICATIONS FROM SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY ARE THAT
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 12 MPH.

MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
LIKELY TO PASS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF GUAM TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH JUST WEST OF THE MARIANAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS WOULD BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALONG WITH SUSTAINED WINDS RISING TO
AS HIGH AS 35 MPH BY TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE DEPRESSION MOVES
AND INTENSIFIES...DAMAGING WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE BY
MID-DAY THURSDAY.

SINCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...STAY INFORMED ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION. KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND LISTEN FOR ANY FURTHER
STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND YOUR
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE. BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION TO
PROTECT PROPERTY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14907
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 336. Chucktown:


Cantore is here in Charleston this week for the NWA yearly meeting. I played golf with him this past Saturday.


What!!..man we could have sent you some questions to ask JC and you post the answers..

you were holding out on us..:(

who won by the way?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
Quoting 316. whitewabit:
number 2 of Dr Masters Rules of the Road ..

2. Stay on topic.


11. Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2893
Quoting 281. ncstorm:
whatever happened to Jim Cantore at Pensacola Beach for Karen? I know he was there waiting on the last ride of the season....


Cantore is here in Charleston this week for the NWA yearly meeting. I played golf with him this past Saturday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"Lighten up Francis", comes to mind as well.

Adio'
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Jesus. I was going to post some reports from the Japan Meteorology Agency about Japan's typhoon climatology.
(Japan has had several devastating November typhoons) I don't want to feel like I'm walking on eggshells here because a moderator is turning to censorship. Count me out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
333. SLU
Quoting 305. CybrTeddy:
Anyone order a Super Typhoon? Looks like 93W's COC is on the edge of the convection though, but if this was in the Atlantic it would be a tropical depression. This should become a significant typhoon over the next few days. The Pacific and Indian ocean has been very active the last few weeks.



The energy had to be released somewhere ....
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LIVE WEBCAM of Typhoon Wipha impacting Fukushima Daichi Plant
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
331. whitewabit (Mod)
weather definition. The daily conditions of the atmosphere in terms of temperature, atmospheric pressure, wind, and moisture.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TCFA issued for 93W.

WTPN23 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.7N 147.8E TO 10.7N 141.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 151932Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 146.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3N
148.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 146.5E, APPROXIMATELY 107 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 151633Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS PERSISTENT CONVECTION THAT HAS DEEPENED WITH A SLIGHT
CURVATURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 151152Z ASCAT PASS
DEPICTED A 20 KNOT ELONGATED CIRCULATION LOCATED SLIGHTLY NORHEAST
OF GUAM. 161958Z OBSERVATIONS IN GUAM HAVE INDICATED PRESSURES
DROPPING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS TO 1005.8 HPA WITH 20-24 KNOT WINDS.
THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO
THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
162100Z.
//

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14907
Quoting 307. FunnelVortex:


The MJO has been having an affair with those areas.
Isn't that headed towards Japan, again? Yikes.
Member Since: August 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 530
Quoting 297. SuzK:


I respectfully disagree! I am just as interested in winter weather and Asian typhoons and polar (and other) vorticities as I am in hurricanes. With so much amazing, unusual, and incredible weather happening everywhere in the world, this blog could keep rolling all year (and pretty much does). There is more to following the weather than joy popping on hurricane possibilities.


Agreed. Natural events are worthy of discussion any time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 317. Patrap:
Heavy rains of 4 - 8" capable of causing damaging flooding will be widespread over Japan, including over the Fukushima nuclear site, where rainfall from Typhoon Man-Yi on September 16 complicated clean-up efforts of the reactors damaged by the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami.


I guess we can yak about a Radioactive Typhoon racing off to the Neast.

Were not sequestered on that seems.





Your post is on point. These two stations less than 10 miles from the Fukushima reactor have already had more than 5" of rain according to the latest hourly observations.

Namie 149.5 mm / 5.89"
Tomioka 145.5 mm / 5.73"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 306. whitewabit:
Take the GW discussion to Dr Roods Blog .. this is the 2nd time I have told the same people ..

No more Warnings ..

Get back to the subject of weather !!
See, I told you he was a saint.The Abenaki people believe that after Tabaldak created humans, the dust from his body created Glooscap and his twin brother, Malsumis. He gave Glooscap the power to create a good world. Malsumis, on the other hand, is the opposite, and seeks evil to this day.

Glooscap learned that hunters who kill too much would destroy the ecosystem and the good world he had sought to create. Frightened at this possibility, Glooscap sought Grandmother Woodchuck (Agaskw) and asked her for advice. She plucked all the hairs out of her belly (hence the lack of hair on a woodchuck's belly) and wove them into a magical bag. Glooscap put all the game animals into the bag. He then bragged to Grandmother Woodchuck that the humans would never need to hunt again. Grandmother Woodchuck scolded him and told him that they would die without the animals. She said that they needed to hunt to remain strong. Glooscap then let the animals go.

Later, Glooscap decided to capture the great bird that Tabaldak had placed on a mountain peak, where it generated bad weather in the flapping of its wings. Glooscap caught the eagle and bound its wings and the winds ceased. Soon, the air was so hot and heavy that Glooscap could not breathe, so he loosened the bird's wings, just enough to generate enough weather so humanity could live.

Modern Abenaki believe Glooscap is very angry at the white people for not obeying the rules he set down.
Member Since: August 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 530
Hey guys
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 315. CybrTeddy:


We could talk about tropical cyclones, seeing as those are definitely out there. I'm gearing up for post-season, and this season I'll be talking more about cyclones in other basins to make up for the pathetic season the Atlantic saw.

Here's the 18z GFS for 93W, impressive typhoon by 105 hours.


I just wanna see some blizzards come through here to make up for the lack of action.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2893
Quoting 319. Patrap:
I'm betting 2014 will be duller dan 2013.



Works for me.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 4768
321. SuzK
Quoting 249. LargoFl:
young folks wont remember this...1978.......


THAT was my first winter season as a driver!!! We had ice ruts on the streets in Metro Detroit until April that year. What an introduction to winter driving :/
Member Since: October 8, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 100
GW is always on topic here. This what Dr. Jeff Masters is the master at climate related topics. GW is one of them.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 4768
I'm betting 2014 will be duller dan 2013.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
One thing we can agree on is a Cold AMO will drastically reduce the number of major hurricanes over the coming years.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 4768
Heavy rains of 4 - 8" capable of causing damaging flooding will be widespread over Japan, including over the Fukushima nuclear site, where rainfall from Typhoon Man-Yi on September 16 complicated clean-up efforts of the reactors damaged by the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami.


I guess we can yak about a Radioactive Typhoon racing off to the Neast.

Were not sequestered on that seems.





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
316. whitewabit (Mod)
number 2 of Dr Masters Rules of the Road ..

2. Stay on topic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 309. StormTrackerScott:


By the way i wish i had some weather to talk about as there is nothing going on.


We could talk about tropical cyclones, seeing as those are definitely out there. I'm gearing up for post-season, and this season I'll be talking more about cyclones in other basins to make up for the pathetic season the Atlantic saw.

Here's the 18z GFS for 93W, impressive typhoon by 105 hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 306. whitewabit:
Take the GW discussion to Dr Roods Blog .. this is the 2nd time I have told the same people ..

No more Warnings ..

Get back to the subject of weather !!

Climate is weather over a long period of time. Your comment makes no sense.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32855
Are the Mods washing the Blog?,...are do we have it again this week too ?



; 0
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting 297. SuzK:


I respectfully disagree! I am just as interested in winter weather and Asian typhoons and polar (and other) vorticities as I am in hurricanes. With so much amazing, unusual, and incredible weather happening everywhere in the world, this blog could keep rolling all year (and pretty much does). There is more to following the weather than joy popping on hurricane possibilities.
Believe it or not it was always spectacular in it's diversity and destruction. You just never paid attention until just recently. By the way, I am selling both global warming and global ice age stickers out of my Astro Van. Could you just meet me at the drum circle this weekend to finalize the deal? Greg Allman and Dickie Betts will be there maybe.
Member Since: August 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 530
New satellite data confirms major Arctic ice loss

14 Feb 2013, 15:30Roz Pidcock

Scientists know from decades of measurements that climate change is causing Arctic sea ice to shrink. But a new satellite that estimates ice volume is allowing scientists to examine sea ice in three-dimensions - providing a more accurate picture of how ice cover is changing. The volume of sea ice in Autumn - just after its lowest point in the year - has shrunk by more than a third over the past decade, the data show.

The European Space Agency's (ESA) CryoSat-2 satellite has been orbiting the earth since 2010. The satellite measures the thickness of Arctic sea ice and uses the data to estimate the volume, and the UK-led team behind the project has just published the first two years of data from the mission.

Such satellite volume measurements have been eagerly awaited by scientists. At a time when the sea ice is shrinking as the region warms, the data provide an important new source of information for scientists tracking the effect of climate change at the top of the planet.

Dr Nathan Kurtz, polar scientist at NASA, told Carbon Brief:

"The [publication of the new results] is a huge step forward in terms of our knowledge of changing Arctic sea ice thickness and volume."

....more

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting 306. whitewabit:
Take the GW discussion to Dr Roods Blog .. this is the 2nd time I have told the same people ..

No more Warnings ..

Get back to the subject of weather !!


By the way i wish i had some weather to talk about as there is nothing going on.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 4768
Quoting 306. whitewabit:
Take the GW discussion to Dr Roods Blog .. this is the 2nd time I have told the same people ..

No more Warnings ..

Get back to the subject of weather !!


I was told to post weather and science topics per Dr. Master's moderators. GW is science related.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 4768
Quoting 305. CybrTeddy:
Anyone order a Super Typhoon? Looks like 93W's COC is on the edge of the convection though, but if this was in the Atlantic it would be a tropical depression. This should become a significant typhoon over the next few days. The Pacific and Indian ocean has been very active the last few weeks.



The MJO has been having an affair with those areas.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2893
306. whitewabit (Mod)
Take the GW discussion to Dr Roods Blog .. this is the 2nd time I have told the same people ..

No more Warnings ..

Get back to the subject of weather !!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyone order a Super Typhoon? Looks like 93W's COC is on the edge of the convection though, but if this was in the Atlantic it would be a tropical depression. This should become a significant typhoon over the next few days. The Pacific and Indian ocean has been very active the last few weeks.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 302. StormTrackerScott:


Read the link then maybe you will understand more. All of the warm AMO events posred record Global temperatures as the cold AMO events have posted record cold years. Read the link.

Same thing with ENSO. Which is the stronger of the "oscillations" that make up climate variability. They are noise on top of the trend. In a warming trend, when the "noise" favors warmer temperatures, it loads the dice such that a record warm temperature is more likely. As such, it is not unusual in any way that the warmest years on record would correspond as your link suggested. There also are climatic changes occurring with ocean temperatures which can show up in these indeces if they do not have trends removed.

Again, AMO didn't cause the temperature trends. AMO cannot explain the modern warming. AMO cannot create or destroy heat energy. This is not controversial.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3326
Quoting 301. Patrap:
Been watching the Arctic Ice disappear since they been imaging it from Orbit.

Maybe gander at those images,..

Then get back to us on the "trend".






Have a image from 1994 then a image from 1997. Warm AMO started 1995.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 4768
Quoting 299. ScottLincoln:

You are seriously arguing that the AMO somehow caused all of the global temperature trends of the last 2 decades?
An internal cycle, smaller than ENSO, caused all of the global temperature changes? Please tell us, how did it magically create all of this heat energy in violation of the laws of physics?


Read the link then maybe you will understand more. All of the warm AMO events posted record Global temperatures as the cold AMO events have posted record cold years. Read the link.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 4768
301. Patrap
12:14 AM GMT on October 16, 2013
Been watching the Arctic Ice disappear since they been imaging it from Orbit.

Maybe gander at those images,..

Then get back to us on the "trend".




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
300. ScottLincoln
12:12 AM GMT on October 16, 2013
Quoting 288. Pallis:
Dumbest quote of the night. You must be bad at science. Cold is transferred.Heat Transfer
www.g9toengineering.com/resources/heattransfer.ht m

Cold is not energy.
If you think it is, that says quite a bit about you, and the school you graduated from.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3326
299. ScottLincoln
12:10 AM GMT on October 16, 2013
Quoting 290. StormTrackerScott:


However all of the recent record Global temperatures are a result of the (18 year warm based AMO) Which the info provided shows that we have had these warm periods before. Now that we are likely entering a cool period then Arctic Seas ice should recover greatly over the coming years.

You are seriously arguing that the AMO somehow caused all of the global temperature trends of the last 2 decades?
An internal cycle, smaller than ENSO, caused all of the global temperature changes? Please tell us, how did it magically create all of this heat energy in violation of the laws of physics?
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3326
298. Pallis
12:10 AM GMT on October 16, 2013
Quoting 284. MiamiHeat305:

he just left cause the storm fading .. and well who knows maybe he will have a last ride ya never know
Yeah , I remember Jim Cantore. He always got me all worked about the season. Professional.
Member Since: August 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 530
297. SuzK
12:10 AM GMT on October 16, 2013
Quoting 107. opal92nwf:
Wow, ever since Karen this blog has just plummeted. Most people (including me) are done with the Atlantic and are not expecting really anything at all, so unless there is something else earth shattering that is happening in the weather world, there is no real need to come on this blog or unless you just want to interact with other people.



I respectfully disagree! I am just as interested in winter weather and Asian typhoons and polar (and other) vorticities as I am in hurricanes. With so much amazing, unusual, and incredible weather happening everywhere in the world, this blog could keep rolling all year (and pretty much does). There is more to following the weather than joy popping on hurricane possibilities.
Member Since: October 8, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 100
296. StormTrackerScott
12:10 AM GMT on October 16, 2013
Quoting 287. Patrap:
Lake Pontchartrain Freezes - December,25-27th 1989



Cold AMO period.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 4768
295. Patrap
12:09 AM GMT on October 16, 2013
..rut-roh'
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
294. StormTrackerScott
12:08 AM GMT on October 16, 2013
Quoting 281. ncstorm:
whatever happened to Jim Cantore at Pensacola Beach for Karen? I know he was there waiting on the last ride of the season....


He was caught eating a donut a 7-11 with Stephanie Abrams.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 4768
293. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
12:08 AM GMT on October 16, 2013
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #60B
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON WIPHA (T1326)
8:00 AM JST October 16 2013
======================================

East Southeast Of Chiba Prefecture

At 23:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Wipha (955 hPa) located at 35.6N 141.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 36 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in east quadrant
150 NM from the center in west quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
500 NM from the center in east quadrant
325 NM from the center in west quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
Next Hour: 36.1N 141.7E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Ibaraki Prefecture
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47014
292. Naga5000
12:07 AM GMT on October 16, 2013
Quoting 290. StormTrackerScott:


However all of the recent record Global temperatures are a result of the (18 year warm based AMO) Which the info provided shows that we have had these warm periods before. Now that we are likely entering a cool period then Arctic Seas ice should recover greatly over the coming years. We will see.


No, that is simply untrue.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3968
291. ScottLincoln
12:07 AM GMT on October 16, 2013
Someone seems to have forgotten all about that big prediction for "one of the coldest ever March temperature anomalies on record." You know, the one where we had to use some arithmetic such as averaging to show how silly the claim was, but the claim kept getting made and wasn't corrected, and then, sure enough, our March 2013 temperatures were in the middle tercile of the historical record, AKA "near normal." After that, I'd take future "forecasts" with some skepticism.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3326
290. StormTrackerScott
12:06 AM GMT on October 16, 2013
Quoting 286. ScottLincoln:

What exactly do you mean? Have you just now discovered that internal climate variability?

It's the noise on top of the trend, especially on regional scales. Internal variability is a manifestation of how heat energy moves around in the climate system, but cannot create or destroy heat. ENSO has similar affects in the Pacific. And the PDO too. Not groundbreaking.


However all of the recent record Global temperatures are a result of the (18 year warm based AMO) Which the info provided shows that we have had these warm periods before. Now that we are likely entering a cool period then Arctic Seas ice should recover greatly over the coming years. We will see.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 4768

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