Dangerous Typhoon Wipha Drenching Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:45 PM GMT on October 15, 2013

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Large and powerful Category 1 Typhoon Wipha is bearing down on Japan as the storm races northeast at 28 mph. Wipha is likely to be the strongest typhoon to hit Japan since Typhoon Tokage of October 2004, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. Wipha is merging with a cold front and undergoing the transition to an extratropical storm--the same process Hurricane Sandy underwent as it approached landfall in October 2012. While Typhoon Wipha is not as powerful as Sandy, it does have a huge area of winds in excess of 50 knots (57.5 mph), which extend out 130 miles to the left of the center. Since the center of Wipha is expected to graze the southern coast of Japan today, and the storm will only weaken slightly, a 100-mile-wide swath of Japan will see damaging winds of 50 knots, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. About a 30 mile-wide swath of Japan will experience winds of 75 mph (hurricane force.) Tokyo will be right at the edge of the hurricane-force wind swath. With many trees still in leaf, these winds will cause widespread tree damage and downed power lines. The counter-clockwise flow of moist, tropical air around the center of Wipha is meeting up with the cold front currently over Japan. This is generating torrential rains over large portions of the country, as the moist air is forced upwards over the cold front, making the air expand and cool, condensing its copious moisture. Radar precipitation estimates show that rainfall rates of 1 - 2" per hour were occurring near Tokyo today. Heavy rains of 4 - 8" capable of causing damaging flooding will be widespread over Japan, including over the Fukushima nuclear site, where rainfall from Typhoon Man-Yi on September 16 complicated clean-up efforts of the reactors damaged by the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami.

Japan may not be all done with typhoons this month, as both the GFS and European models are predicting that an area of disturbed weather (Invest 93W) east of the Philippines will develop into a tropical storm late this week, which will then head northwest and threaten Japan by next Wednesday, October 23.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Wipha approaching Japan, taken at approximately 04:25 UTC on October 15, 2013. At the time, Wipha was a Category 1 storm with winds of 90 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Nari hits Vietnam
Torrential rains are falling in Southeast Asia due to Typhoon Nari, which made landfall near Da Nang around 03 UTC on Wednesday as a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds. The eye passed 10 miles south of Da Nang, putting the city in the stronger northern semicircle of the storm. Da Nang recorded top sustained winds of 55 mph, gusting to 81 mph, and picked up 4.06" of rain. Damage is heavy in Da Nang, and at least five deaths are being blamed on the storm. Nari battered the Philippines on Friday, killing thirteen people and leaving 2.1 million people without power on the main Philippine island of Luzon.

The Atlantic is quiet
The tropical wave (Invest 98L) a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands that we've been tracking this week has been torn apart by high winds, and is no longer a threat to develop. There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Octave (top) and Tropical Storm Priscilla (bottom) taken at approximately 18:30 UTC (2:30 pm EDT) on October 14, 2013. At the time, Octave had top winds of 50 mph, and Priscilla had top winds of 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Depression Octave in the Eastern Pacific bringing needed rain to Texas
In the Eastern Pacific, we have two tropical cyclones: Tropical Storm Priscilla, a minimal-strength tropical storm that is weakening and heading northwest out to sea, and Tropical Depression Octave, which hit Mexico's Baja Peninsula early Wednesday morning. Octave and Priscilla are embedded in a large plume of tropical moisture that is riding up to the northeast over Mexico and Texas. Flood watches and warnings are posted over much of the southern half of Texas, where widespread rains of 2 - 6" have fallen over the past two days. While the heavy rains have caused some minor to moderate flooding, the precipitation is mostly welcome, as it will make a substantial dent in the multi-year drought that has gripped much of Texas.


Video 1. Waterspout observed offshore of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico on October 14, 2013, as rains bands from Tropical Storm Octave moved over the Baja Peninsula.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 385. KoritheMan:

I unno. Cirrus clouds seem sexy to me.


I heard a cirrus cloud was arrested today because the cops found him high
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Quoting 387. Thrawst:
Hello everyone.
whats up dude
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Quoting 271. hydrus:
the 70,s had all kinds of wicked winter weather. The winter of 76-77 was bad for the N.E. It did not get above freezing for 2 months where I was at. It actually froze our 4 wheel drive to the ground and we snapped an axle...good thing it did not snap both, we could still drive it.:)


Yikes, sounds like a nightmare, severe cold scares me more than anything, I've never been through severe cold.
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Hello everyone.
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Quoting 382. wxchaser97:

But alas, YOU GET NOTHING!
<3
Nobody gets anything this year. So... I don't feel so bad anymore. :)
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Quoting 383. CarolinaJim:
Please stay on topic. Are you a fan of cumulus clouds? They were some amazing ones over my house today...
I unno. Cirrus clouds seem sexy to me.
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though not weather related. I have been watching everything i can about Fukachima . From what I understand they have over a thousand tanks holding the contaminated cooling water and they will have to continue to add tanks as time goes by. Does anyone know what there plan is to deal with all that contaminated water? as much as I look I cant find anything on this.
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Quoting 381. KoritheMan:

Yeah? I sure could use it right now, though. :)

But alas, YOU GET NOTHING!
<3
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Quoting 379. MississippiWx75:
This won't fit in the Gulf KoriTheMan.

Yeah? I sure could use it right now, though. :)
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When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not
relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog
entry itself.
Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering.
Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.

Seems straightforward enough to me. I'm not going to say I necessarily agree with all of the rules here (which at times seem arbitrary, to be honest), but the above is good enough for me. Sometimes we have to abide by things we don't understand or agree with. That's simply part of life. Even my rebellious, unsavory self can attest to that. ;)
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Quoting 345. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
just forget about it and carry on

fresca for everyone pat ya got 12 cases to get rid of


I got 2 cases of Yingling if anyone wants some.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2681
Quoting 373. FunnelVortex:

I'd remove this post if I were you....


he already gone..LOL..they are having a fit in here tonight..war on the mods..keep it up mods..dont take no prisoners..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15072
Weather is the conditions of the atmosphere at a specific time period while climate is patterns and variations in weather over long periods of time. No real debate there on the definitions. As long as there is no bickering/attacking then discussing climate seems to be fine. However, there is no reason to really be arguing over what to discuss on this blog as there are other weather events occurring.
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Quoting 367. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


atlantic tropical withdrawals syndrome


Existential blog crisis. It's a cyclical pattern. ;)
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Quoting 365. floridaT:
wow climate change discussion no longer allowed on Dr Masters blog. I knew that weather channel buy out would change things.


Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15072
Quoting 363. StallworthSwing:
what's with all the bickering and tension in here tonight? Sheesh. Welcome rains here in the Lonestar state. ABout time? And more on the way...



atlantic tropical withdrawals syndrome
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Quoting 352. GerlindeEspinosa:

Thanks for saying that. It needed to be said. Take the non-sense another place is right. And plenty of WEATHER to talk about here. Down here in South Texas a bit southeast of San Antonio, I recieved some much needed rainfall. Something to cheer about!


No precip all day here just West of San Antonio but I see some thunderstorms coming across the border and almost to Uvalde. They are still about 60 miles west of me, I'm keeping my fingers and toes crossed we get dumped on.
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wow climate change discussion no longer allowed on Dr Masters blog. I knew that weather channel buy out would change things.
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362. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #61
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON WIPHA (T1326)
9:00 AM JST October 16 2013
======================================

East Of Ibaraki Prefecture

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Wipha (960 hPa) located at 36.3N 141.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 38 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
240 NM from the center in east quadrant
150 NM from the center in west quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
500 NM from the center in east quadrant
325 NM from the center in west quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T4.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 49.2N 155.4E - Extratropical Low In Kuril Waters
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45211
Is it hot in here or is it just me?

-----------------------------------

Check out the Denver radar... I guess the radar anomaly is related to the linear band of showers moving right towards it. Or are the showers artifacts related to the radar anomaly? Or is it all HAARP?

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Quoting 356. Nekeopbarren:

No. You are free and also politely asked by admin to cease the GW discussions and take them elsewhere.


I didn't continue them, I simply posted a definition attempting to show how using strict definitions can create contradictory meanings. It looks like my subtle attempt at logic was lost on quite a few here. So kindly, go attack someone else.
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Quoting 350. Chucktown:


Here's his twitter feed - I think he's leaving tomorrow. Mike Bettes was here too. His presentation was about the El Reno tornado chase that rolled his SUV when he was part of the Tornado Hunt team. We saw some unbelievable video that never aired on TWC.

Link

Link


No wonder we have been having terrible weather..LOL..JC has been in close proxmicity..thanks for the link
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15072
357. SuzK
Quoting 311. Pallis:
Believe it or not it was always spectacular in it's diversity and destruction. You just never paid attention until just recently. By the way, I am selling both global warming and global ice age stickers out of my Astro Van. Could you just meet me at the drum circle this weekend to finalize the deal? Greg Allman and Dickie Betts will be there maybe.


I have no idea what you are talking about. Maybe you should read my post again so as to give a more coherent response? I have been a mostly silent regular here for a few years but have been an armchair meteorologist from childhood. I've closely followed global weather developments for nearly 20 years, ever since the internet went live with so much fascinating information for a layperson such as myself.
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Business Etiquette & Communication Skills

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
354. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)

2013/14 Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook
_

Table 3: Severe Tropical Cyclone Risks

Countries Severe TC (Cat 3-5) Risks 2013/14 Season

Cook Islands Low to Moderate (40%)
Tokelau High (100%)
Samoa High (100%)
Niue High (100%)
Solomon Islands High (100%)
Vanuatu High (114%)
Tonga Very High (171%)
Fiji Very High (175%)
Wallis and Futuna Very High (200%)
New Caledonia Very High (100%)



Prediction for the southern Pacific Hurricane Season of chances the following countries would be affected by a Severe Tropical Cyclone
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45211
Link


comm blog link
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Quoting 346. Pallis:
From what I have been reading,since March 11,2011 they have been pumping in cold seawater to cool the rods. That did not work. It only poisoned the Pacific. Now that the rods have melted through the floor ... ehh. What were those fictional novels on the subject that predict bad outcomes? 5 inches of rain just gives the O crap guys an excuse from getting there. They really do not want to be there. No one wants to be there.
My question about that is What are there plans for the thousands of tanks of contaminated water?
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Quoting 338. ncstorm:


What!!..man we could have sent you some questions to ask JC and you post the answers..

you were holding out on us..:(

who won by the way?


Here's his twitter feed - I think he's leaving tomorrow. Mike Bettes was here too. His presentation was about the El Reno tornado chase that rolled his SUV when he was part of the Tornado Hunt team. We saw some unbelievable video that never aired on TWC.

Link

Link
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please refer all comments to comm blog regarding issues and pls refrain from attacking my friend wabbit

I will not ask again

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Quoting 343. Beachshell:

Give it up Naga. Please re-read whitewabit's comments regarding the climate change. When you do, please abide. Take that nonsense elsewhere, like Dr. Roods Blog.

Thanks!


Action: Quote | Ignore User

You are free to choose the second option if you would not like to see my posts. Also, please feel free to exert some self control and simply scroll past them.
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for someone who went up against the mods in Dr. Masters blog, I received a temp ban several times..some of yall keep getting that sliding measure and are still able to blog and its not right..take it to the admin blog..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15072
Quoting 326. DonnieBwkGA:


Your post is on point. These two stations less than 10 miles from the Fukushima reactor have already had more than 5" of rain according to the latest hourly observations.

Namie 149.5 mm / 5.89"
Tomioka 145.5 mm / 5.73"
From what I have been reading,since March 11,2011 they have been pumping in cold seawater to cool the rods. That did not work. It only poisoned the Pacific. Now that the rods have melted through the floor ... ehh. What were those fictional novels on the subject that predict bad outcomes? 5 inches of rain just gives the O crap guys an excuse from getting there. They really do not want to be there. No one wants to be there.
Member Since: August 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 522
just forget about it and carry on

fresca for everyone pat ya got 12 cases to get rid of
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"climate
%u02C8kl%u012Bmit/
noun
noun: climate;%u2003plural noun: climates

1.
the weather conditions prevailing in an area in general or over a long period."

Seems we are at a stalemate...

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Quoting 183. DonnieBwkGA:
Miyakejima island has a population of 2,884 and a volcano 2,674 feet high. The climate is mild subtropical and very wet. Must be a green place.


You're telling me, an average of 113 inches a year is soaking wet! Even half that is still a very moist climate!

The western pacific tropics are so much more active than our basin, always moist and stormy, I want to take a trip over there sometime, I'm jealous! lol
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Here is a special statement by the Guam NWS regarding 93W.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
840 AM CHST WED OCT 16 2013

GUZ001>004-161200-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
840 AM CHST WED OCT 16 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE MARIANAS TODAY...

AT 800 AM THIS MORNING...A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WAS
CENTERED NEAR 13.5 DEGREES NORTH AND 146.5 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS
ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF GUAM AND 125 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
SAIPAN. LATEST INDICATIONS FROM SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY ARE THAT
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 12 MPH.

MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
LIKELY TO PASS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF GUAM TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH JUST WEST OF THE MARIANAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS WOULD BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALONG WITH SUSTAINED WINDS RISING TO
AS HIGH AS 35 MPH BY TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE DEPRESSION MOVES
AND INTENSIFIES...DAMAGING WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE BY
MID-DAY THURSDAY.

SINCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...STAY INFORMED ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION. KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND LISTEN FOR ANY FURTHER
STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND YOUR
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE. BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION TO
PROTECT PROPERTY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14210

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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