Dangerous Typhoon Wipha Drenching Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:45 PM GMT on October 15, 2013

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Large and powerful Category 1 Typhoon Wipha is bearing down on Japan as the storm races northeast at 28 mph. Wipha is likely to be the strongest typhoon to hit Japan since Typhoon Tokage of October 2004, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. Wipha is merging with a cold front and undergoing the transition to an extratropical storm--the same process Hurricane Sandy underwent as it approached landfall in October 2012. While Typhoon Wipha is not as powerful as Sandy, it does have a huge area of winds in excess of 50 knots (57.5 mph), which extend out 130 miles to the left of the center. Since the center of Wipha is expected to graze the southern coast of Japan today, and the storm will only weaken slightly, a 100-mile-wide swath of Japan will see damaging winds of 50 knots, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. About a 30 mile-wide swath of Japan will experience winds of 75 mph (hurricane force.) Tokyo will be right at the edge of the hurricane-force wind swath. With many trees still in leaf, these winds will cause widespread tree damage and downed power lines. The counter-clockwise flow of moist, tropical air around the center of Wipha is meeting up with the cold front currently over Japan. This is generating torrential rains over large portions of the country, as the moist air is forced upwards over the cold front, making the air expand and cool, condensing its copious moisture. Radar precipitation estimates show that rainfall rates of 1 - 2" per hour were occurring near Tokyo today. Heavy rains of 4 - 8" capable of causing damaging flooding will be widespread over Japan, including over the Fukushima nuclear site, where rainfall from Typhoon Man-Yi on September 16 complicated clean-up efforts of the reactors damaged by the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami.

Japan may not be all done with typhoons this month, as both the GFS and European models are predicting that an area of disturbed weather (Invest 93W) east of the Philippines will develop into a tropical storm late this week, which will then head northwest and threaten Japan by next Wednesday, October 23.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Wipha approaching Japan, taken at approximately 04:25 UTC on October 15, 2013. At the time, Wipha was a Category 1 storm with winds of 90 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Nari hits Vietnam
Torrential rains are falling in Southeast Asia due to Typhoon Nari, which made landfall near Da Nang around 03 UTC on Wednesday as a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds. The eye passed 10 miles south of Da Nang, putting the city in the stronger northern semicircle of the storm. Da Nang recorded top sustained winds of 55 mph, gusting to 81 mph, and picked up 4.06" of rain. Damage is heavy in Da Nang, and at least five deaths are being blamed on the storm. Nari battered the Philippines on Friday, killing thirteen people and leaving 2.1 million people without power on the main Philippine island of Luzon.

The Atlantic is quiet
The tropical wave (Invest 98L) a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands that we've been tracking this week has been torn apart by high winds, and is no longer a threat to develop. There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Octave (top) and Tropical Storm Priscilla (bottom) taken at approximately 18:30 UTC (2:30 pm EDT) on October 14, 2013. At the time, Octave had top winds of 50 mph, and Priscilla had top winds of 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Depression Octave in the Eastern Pacific bringing needed rain to Texas
In the Eastern Pacific, we have two tropical cyclones: Tropical Storm Priscilla, a minimal-strength tropical storm that is weakening and heading northwest out to sea, and Tropical Depression Octave, which hit Mexico's Baja Peninsula early Wednesday morning. Octave and Priscilla are embedded in a large plume of tropical moisture that is riding up to the northeast over Mexico and Texas. Flood watches and warnings are posted over much of the southern half of Texas, where widespread rains of 2 - 6" have fallen over the past two days. While the heavy rains have caused some minor to moderate flooding, the precipitation is mostly welcome, as it will make a substantial dent in the multi-year drought that has gripped much of Texas.


Video 1. Waterspout observed offshore of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico on October 14, 2013, as rains bands from Tropical Storm Octave moved over the Baja Peninsula.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 89. StormTrackerScott:
Beginning to think Fall is never going to come to FL. 84 with a dewpoint of 71 here in Orlando. Sticky!
it will just got to wait longer than everyone else first
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Beginning to think Fall is never going to come to FL. 84 with a dewpoint of 71 here in Orlando. Sticky!
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2765
Quoting Shereth:


1968 went 8-5-0 with the strongest being Hurricane Gladys, 965mb with 85 mph recorded winds. Seems to be the last without at least a Cat 2.


Cool! So we went from an above average season forecasted, even 9 weeks ago on August 8 with NOAA predicting 13 to 19 named storms, 6 to 9 hurricanes, and 3 to 5 major hurricanes this year to just 11-2-0 today. I can see us getting another hurricane this year, maybe. But a major is becoming less likely, and certainly not 3 to 5. I guess if you are in college to be a hurricane forecaster you could pick this season to write a paper on.
Member Since: July 10, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 922
Quoting 70. JeffMasters:


The NOGAPS, GFDL, HWRF, and GEM model have at times been reliable for track forecasts, but not genesis of TCs.

I don't know much about the tropical transition issue you raise. I do know it was considered as a possible reason why Japan got hit with 10 named storms in 2004.

Dr. M.


Doc, I know its one instance that I can remember but you did a blog on Ernesto of last year and you gave the Nogaps/Navgem props on TC genesis..it beat out the other models..so it has it moments as do the other models..

frankly, I find all the models this year could stand a serious upgrade..

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Quoting 81. StormWx:
This season is 11-2-0, in which our strongest storm Humberto bottoming out at 980mb and top winds of 85mph. I wonder when the last year was when we didnt have a major or at least a Cat 2 hurricane form.


1968 went 8-5-0 with the strongest being Hurricane Gladys, 965mb with 85 mph recorded winds. Seems to be the last without at least a Cat 2.
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Good evening from a countryside in Germany in Hassia where I've just started my vacation (mostly for walking in the autumn woods) and now am struggeling with the keyboard of my laptop (missing my convenient workstation at home ;)

Tokio live streaming webcam. Of course it's dark now, but you see, it's raining heavily.

Morning is approaching:
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Quoting 62. WxGeekVA:



Snow for me in PA while the tropical system of interest nears the Gulf


Snow... and Pennsylvania... :) Sounds good to me
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This season is 11-2-0, in which our strongest storm Humberto bottoming out at 980mb and top winds of 85mph. I wonder when the last year was when we didnt have a major or at least a Cat 2 hurricane form.
Member Since: July 10, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 922
Quoting 71. JeffMasters:
Tokyo is up to 5.77" of rain in the past 16 hours, with 1.18" in the past hour:

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/today-44132.html ?areaCode=000&groupCode=30

Jeff Masters
They appear to be under one of the westerly-enhanced bands on the northern part of the typhoon.

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Quoting 76. StormWx:
I tell you what, there will be a lot said about the absolute disaster of a pre-season forecast from major meteorological agencies this year. It proves we still don't have a firm grasp on all the different aspects of cyclone formation over the course of a season. It's quite obvious that even with above average sea surface temps and neither in an el nino or la nina that an above average season is never certain.
yes indeed, we are mostly guessing still...somehow the data being fed into the models isnt enough on formation.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38136
Winter is driven by the Seasonal Axial Tilt and the Arctic Vortex and how it Loops around the Polar regions,..Climate Change is changing that flow.


Dr. Ricky Rood's Climate Change Blog
Wobbles in the Barriers: Arctic Oscillation (4)
Posted by: Dr. Ricky Rood, 11:22 AM CDT on October 14, 2013
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Very interesting site on artic sea ice...with many links on the right side of the page.......Link
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38136
I tell you what, there will be a lot said about the absolute disaster of a pre-season forecast from major meteorological agencies this year. It proves we still don't have a firm grasp on all the different aspects of cyclone formation over the course of a season. It's quite obvious that even with above average sea surface temps and neither in an el nino or la nina that an above average season is never certain.
Member Since: July 10, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 922
Question..In a year where atlantic tropical formation is lower..does that correspond with a more severe winter?..or..with the now warm atlantic..which the tropical systems did Not remove the heat..would the ocean keep the winter less severe?...am I getting the point across right?..This is why i ask..warmer on the east coast this year?..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38136
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38136
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Quoting 67. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:





pretty hostile across the big board right now except for the area bounded from the nw to the se in the lower sw carb
yes we'll see what happens down there,doesnt look too promising right now.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38136
71. JeffMasters (Admin)
Tokyo is up to 5.77" of rain in the past 16 hours, with 1.18" in the past hour:

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/today-44132.html ?areaCode=000&groupCode=30

Jeff Masters
70. JeffMasters (Admin)
Quoting 60. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Thank you for the clarification Dr. Masters. If I remember correctly the NOGAPS was a reliable model. By the way what is your take on the effects of tropical transitions on the formation of other tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin, has that frequency gone up since 2003? I was reading an AMS Article on Forecasting the Tropical Transitions of Cyclones by Davis and Bosart (2004) and they noted an uptick in the frequency of Tropical Systems forming through the process of Tropical Transitions. The subject of my research is the effect that those transitions have on the steering and formation of other tropical systems.


The NOGAPS, GFDL, HWRF, and GEM model have at times been reliable for track forecasts, but not genesis of TCs.

I don't know much about the tropical transition issue you raise. I do know it was considered as a possible reason why Japan got hit with 10 named storms in 2004.

Dr. M.
nice day miid 60's before the rain moves in

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western carib going to be upset all this week until next
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Quoting 64. LargoFl:





pretty hostile across the big board right now except for the area bounded from the nw to the se in the lower sw carb
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38136
WWUS72 KJAX 151749 AAA
NPWJAX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
149 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013

FLZ024-025-033-160100-
/O.EXT.KJAX.LW.Y.0027.000000T0000Z-131016T0100Z/
NASSAU-DUVAL-ST JOHNS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FERNANDINA BEACH...JACKSONVILLE...
ST AUGUSTINE
149 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
MPH.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS ON AREA WATERWAYS.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ON ELEVATED BRIDGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO
25 MPH OR GUSTS OF 30 TO 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED. SMALL BOATS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING. BOATERS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
SHOULD AVOID OPEN WATER AND STAY CLOSE TO SHORE IN WIND PROTECTED
INLETS. HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN
TRAVELING AS WELL.

&&

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38136
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38136
RESULTS of FORECASTER of the YEAR BALLOTING (closes on Wednesday, 8pm eastern)

1. BERG - 58
2.STEWART-42
3.AVILA- 38

Friends, this could be a big upset in the making. Please, don't forget to vote.
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Snow for me in PA while the tropical system of interest nears the Gulf

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Quoting 48. Tropicsweatherpr:
I will not believe what the models show until there is something forming because is 2013. I only post this over 250 hour GFS run to have some entertainment.

This is what you would be looking at a tropical system attached and feeding its moisture into to a stretched out cold front.

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Quoting 10. JeffMasters:


There are only 3 that are reliable for predicting genesis: the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF.

Dr. M.
Thank you for the clarification Dr. Masters. If I remember correctly the NOGAPS was a reliable model. By the way what is your take on the effects of tropical transitions on the formation of other tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin, has that frequency gone up since 2003? I was reading an AMS Article on Forecasting the Tropical Transitions of Cyclones by Davis and Bosart (2004) and they noted an uptick in the frequency of Tropical Systems forming through the process of Tropical Transitions. The subject of my research is the effect that those transitions have on the steering and formation of other tropical systems.
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Quoting 48. Tropicsweatherpr:
I will not believe what the models show until there is something forming because is 2013. I only post this over 250 hour GFS run to have some entertainment.

\
It hits belize and it forms slightly on the GOM but ends.... its pretty hard to predict 250 hours (if not impossible)... so i doubt it will happen
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Nashville 7 day outlook.. Here, west about 40 miles, WU is forecasting a dip into the upper 30's Saturday am....

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Go away ex98L!!! The fishes are awaiting you!
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38136
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wow cold reaches even down into the texas panhandle..
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both of Dr. M's satellite images have cool Von Karman vortex streets in them :)
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Coastal Flood Advisory

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1139 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013

FLZ024-025-033-038-GAZ154-166-160100-
/O.NEW.KJAX.CF.Y.0004.131015T2000Z-131016T0100Z/
NASSAU-DUVAL-ST JOHNS-FLAGLER-COASTAL GLYNN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
1139 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
9 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* TIMING...THE NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE WILL BE BETWEEN 5 PM AND 8 PM
THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
PRODUCE WATER LEVELS ABOUT 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MAY PRODUCE
MINOR FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.

&&

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38136
Quoting 34. Sfloridacat5:
No sign of cooler weather way down in S.W. Florida. But change in weather pattern has brought on the dry season.
was in the 70's here this morning and until the overcast burned off it felt great..suns out now..boom hot again.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38136
Quoting 46. Tropicsweatherpr:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD NEAR OR ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
this may be the one that goes nor'easter up the coast
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38136
Quoting 48. Tropicsweatherpr:
I will not believe what the models show until there is something forming because is 2013. I only post this over 250 hour GFS run to have some entertainment.

it does bear watching,it is in a purple marked zone.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38136
I will not believe what the models show until there is something forming because is 2013. I only post this over 250 hour GFS run to have some entertainment.

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Quoting 14. washingtonian115:
Doc do you think the MJO could conjure up something?.


You mean like this...

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD NEAR OR ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Quoting 42. Torito:
Anyone remember this advisory? The dangerousness of the tropics was displayed in a destructive manner here....



Yeah we had Duke of Earl and Shrek's wife to contend with.
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Haven't seen HHJoe on here lately. You out there JOE?????



Mild Santa Ana condition today....
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Quoting 40. hydrus:
Your going to get your nip..:)


LOL Hydrus.. :)
Hoping I'll get my "nip" weather wise too..
You have a great sense of humor.. :)
(Going to Kentucky??.. :)
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Anyone remember this advisory? The dangerousness of the tropics was displayed in a destructive manner here....

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting 36. washingtonian115:
I've asked this before but never got a response.So what does the red represent and the blue on these maps.
High and low pressure.
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Quoting 30. pcola57:


I'm up in the Piedmonts for a couple of weeks..
Waiting for that fresh "nip" in the air..
Going to do the Blue Ridge Parkway this weekend..
Hoping leaves are ready for me..
Then hide out in Kentucky for a few.. :)
Your going to get your nip..:)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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