Dangerous Typhoon Wipha Drenching Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:45 PM GMT on October 15, 2013

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Large and powerful Category 1 Typhoon Wipha is bearing down on Japan as the storm races northeast at 28 mph. Wipha is likely to be the strongest typhoon to hit Japan since Typhoon Tokage of October 2004, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. Wipha is merging with a cold front and undergoing the transition to an extratropical storm--the same process Hurricane Sandy underwent as it approached landfall in October 2012. While Typhoon Wipha is not as powerful as Sandy, it does have a huge area of winds in excess of 50 knots (57.5 mph), which extend out 130 miles to the left of the center. Since the center of Wipha is expected to graze the southern coast of Japan today, and the storm will only weaken slightly, a 100-mile-wide swath of Japan will see damaging winds of 50 knots, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. About a 30 mile-wide swath of Japan will experience winds of 75 mph (hurricane force.) Tokyo will be right at the edge of the hurricane-force wind swath. With many trees still in leaf, these winds will cause widespread tree damage and downed power lines. The counter-clockwise flow of moist, tropical air around the center of Wipha is meeting up with the cold front currently over Japan. This is generating torrential rains over large portions of the country, as the moist air is forced upwards over the cold front, making the air expand and cool, condensing its copious moisture. Radar precipitation estimates show that rainfall rates of 1 - 2" per hour were occurring near Tokyo today. Heavy rains of 4 - 8" capable of causing damaging flooding will be widespread over Japan, including over the Fukushima nuclear site, where rainfall from Typhoon Man-Yi on September 16 complicated clean-up efforts of the reactors damaged by the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami.

Japan may not be all done with typhoons this month, as both the GFS and European models are predicting that an area of disturbed weather (Invest 93W) east of the Philippines will develop into a tropical storm late this week, which will then head northwest and threaten Japan by next Wednesday, October 23.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Wipha approaching Japan, taken at approximately 04:25 UTC on October 15, 2013. At the time, Wipha was a Category 1 storm with winds of 90 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Nari hits Vietnam
Torrential rains are falling in Southeast Asia due to Typhoon Nari, which made landfall near Da Nang around 03 UTC on Wednesday as a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds. The eye passed 10 miles south of Da Nang, putting the city in the stronger northern semicircle of the storm. Da Nang recorded top sustained winds of 55 mph, gusting to 81 mph, and picked up 4.06" of rain. Damage is heavy in Da Nang, and at least five deaths are being blamed on the storm. Nari battered the Philippines on Friday, killing thirteen people and leaving 2.1 million people without power on the main Philippine island of Luzon.

The Atlantic is quiet
The tropical wave (Invest 98L) a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands that we've been tracking this week has been torn apart by high winds, and is no longer a threat to develop. There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Octave (top) and Tropical Storm Priscilla (bottom) taken at approximately 18:30 UTC (2:30 pm EDT) on October 14, 2013. At the time, Octave had top winds of 50 mph, and Priscilla had top winds of 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Depression Octave in the Eastern Pacific bringing needed rain to Texas
In the Eastern Pacific, we have two tropical cyclones: Tropical Storm Priscilla, a minimal-strength tropical storm that is weakening and heading northwest out to sea, and Tropical Depression Octave, which hit Mexico's Baja Peninsula early Wednesday morning. Octave and Priscilla are embedded in a large plume of tropical moisture that is riding up to the northeast over Mexico and Texas. Flood watches and warnings are posted over much of the southern half of Texas, where widespread rains of 2 - 6" have fallen over the past two days. While the heavy rains have caused some minor to moderate flooding, the precipitation is mostly welcome, as it will make a substantial dent in the multi-year drought that has gripped much of Texas.


Video 1. Waterspout observed offshore of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico on October 14, 2013, as rains bands from Tropical Storm Octave moved over the Baja Peninsula.

Jeff Masters

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Instagram video from the Fukushima plant apparently right now at dawn

nika7k, 8 minutes ago
Video of #Fukushima Daiichi #nuclear disaster as outer bands of #Typhoon #Wipha buffets it w wind driven rain

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Quoting 136. hydrus:
That could end up being a record setting event for parts of the U.S. if it occurs.
all I see is a long cold winter ahead with snow ice and cold
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Quoting 130. StormTrackerScott:


I couldn't get an image to load from Accuweather showing a massive cold snap this weekend across the Mid West. Highs in the 20's & 30's are heading that way soon.

What model suggests that?

The coldest the GFS suggests is upper 30s in far northern Minnesota for Sunday afternoon. Highs in the 20s to low 30s is very unusual for the Midwest in mid to late October. It would definitely break records for coldest maximum temp, using Minneapolis as an example. If models depict this kind of scenario and are not consistent, you should be very skeptical.
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Quoting 131. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
That could end up being a record setting event for parts of the U.S. if it occurs.
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Quoting 129. VR46L:


I have never withdrawn a comment in an argument or debate either ... Only wrong posts .... I find it sneaky to do it !


I'm not sure if calling it sneaky is fair, after all, don't we all sometimes post before we think? I know I have.

Correction in my opinion is far better than sticking with an original statement if one feels it was inappropriate, or simply just unnecessary.


Now its one thing to withdraw a post during some sort of debate simply to hide what was said was wrong simply because the person was called out so he/she attempts to cover it.

If that's what you mean by sneaky, then I agree, that isn't right either. However in any other case like I mentioned earlier above, I think its a better solution.
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Quoting 132. Gatorstorm:
Most disappointing tropical season I've ever seen in light of the preseason hype. Has there been any credible opinions as to why?
Last post today... Because I prayed for this Gatorstorm...
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Ok, thanks everyone.. Going out with friends to www.hurricanewings.com Have a great evening all....
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Most disappointing tropical season I've ever seen in light of the preseason hype. Has there been any credible opinions as to why?
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Quoting 116. PalmBeachWeather:
Question..Why do people make a post with only a dot (.)?


I couldn't get an image to load from Accuweather showing a massive cold snap this weekend across the Mid West. Highs in the 20's & 30's are heading that way soon.
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129. VR46L
Quoting 124. PalmBeachWeather:
I guess I'm ignorant regarding that... What I say goes.....


I have never withdrawn a comment in an argument or debate either ... Only wrong posts .... I find it sneaky to do it !
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Quoting 121. VR46L:


However some people post baiting comments and then withdraw them with the dot .... You would be surprised at who I have seen do that !




.
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Quoting 121. VR46L:


However some people post baiting comments and then withdraw them with the dot .... You would be surprised at who I have seen do that !
Pat.Ohh look at the time.I got to scadatal (leave) wee ya'll later.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16409
Quoting 116. PalmBeachWeather:
Question..Why do people make a post with only a dot (.)?


I've done it because either I intend to upload some sort of media and it fails to work, or I just decide that I probably shouldn't have bothered to make the given comment at all, since one can't delete their own comments and all, it's a way of getting around that.


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Quoting 105. DonnieBwkGA:
Tokyo pressure getting pretty low.

Tokyo, Japan



Indeed.
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Quoting 121. VR46L:


However some people post baiting comments and then withdraw them with the dot .... You would be surprised at who I have seen do that !
I guess I'm ignorant regarding that... What I say goes.....
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That 1013 mb. area of low pressure eventually became the catalyst for what would become STS Andrea in 2007. Notice the trough lifting out and the high building in. Also, in case you all were wondering why so many recurves in the past 4 years, well one reason was that the Subtropical Ridge wasn't strong enough nor did it expand to encompass the entire Atlantic like it did from 2004-2008 minus 2006.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7473
Japan’s storm of the decade: Typhoon Wipha lashing Tokyo, Fukushima
Capital Weather Gang, by Jason Samenow, Published: October 15 at 2:33 pm

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121. VR46L
Quoting 120. PalmBeachWeather:
Thanks GT... I thought it was just to up their post total.


However some people post baiting comments and then withdraw them with the dot .... You would be surprised at who I have seen do that !
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Quoting 118. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Usually that happens when we are trying to upload an image and it failed to upload correctly, so we just replace that comment with a dot. :)
Thanks GT... I thought it was just to up their post total.
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119. VR46L
Quoting 116. PalmBeachWeather:
Question..Why do people make a post with only a dot (.)?


Because its usually a post that was a mistake , wrong image or bad info .
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Quoting 116. PalmBeachWeather:
Question..Why do people make a post with only a dot (.)?
Usually that happens when we are trying to upload an image and it failed to upload correctly, so we just replace that comment with a dot. :)
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7473
Quoting 96. StormTrackerScott:


I keep saying this Winter looks very cold and stormy for the SE US. I don't care what Accuweather says.
Accuweather has come a long way. I didnt pay them any mind in the 1980,s. There forecasts were awful. I actually check them out a few times a week now. I have been doing some research, and I too believe a stormy and cold fall and winter for the eastern half of the U.S. I am swamped with work, but will post some interesting info when time permits.
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Question..Why do people make a post with only a dot (.)?
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Cyclonic Wave Break in the Central Pacific, basically vorticity breaking away from the main wave pattern (Rossby Wave/Jet Stream).

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7473
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013

OCTAVE HAS MOVED MUCH FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...AND THE
CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS NOW LOCATED OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. THE ROUGH
TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAINS...COUPLED WITH
VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40 KT...HAS WEAKENED AND DISPLACED THE REMAINING
MODERATE CONVECTION MORE THAN 150 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. AS A
RESULT...OCTAVE NO LONGER MEETS THE CRITERIA OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS
SYSTEM.

THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS FINALLY SEPARATED FROM THE MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. THE LATTER FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND
THE UNITED STATES SOUTHERN PLAINS...ENHANCING RAINFALL ACROSS THOSE
REGIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INTERESTS IN THOSE AREAS
SHOULD MONITOR RAINFALL STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 26.9N 109.4W 20 KT 25 MPH
12H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OCTAVE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013

...OCTAVE DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW OVER MAINLAND MEXICO...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 109.4W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNW OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM NW OF CULIACAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162013
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013

PRISCILLA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH EACH
A LITTLE BIT SMALLER IN COVERAGE THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. DVORAK
DATA-T NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED SINCE THIS MORNING...SO THE CYCLONE
IS BEING INITIALIZED AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION. NOW THAT THE DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR HAS DIMINISHED...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS A LITTLE BIT
LESS EXPOSED FROM THIS LATEST ROUND OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR SURROUNDING THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
HAMPER SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. PRISCILLA IS FORECAST
TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS DUE TO INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COLDER WATER...AND THEN DISSIPATE BY 96
HOURS.

PRISCILLA HAS MADE A HARD LEFT TURN AND IS NOW MOVING 300/7 KT.
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO STEER IT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD UNTIL
DISSIPATION. THE TRACK MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT WESTWARD...WITH
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS LYING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...SO THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT
DIRECTION AS WELL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 17.7N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 18.1N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 18.7N 119.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 19.2N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/1800Z 19.4N 121.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1800Z 18.7N 123.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162013
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013

...PRISCILLA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 117.5W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting 106. barbamz:

Nari and Wipha


Phailin seems to be completely gone.
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Wow, ever since Karen this blog has just plummeted. Most people (including me) are done with the Atlantic and are not expecting really anything at all, so unless there is something else earth shattering that is happening in the weather world, there is no real need to come on this blog or unless you just want to interact with other people.

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Nari and Wipha
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Tokyo pressure getting pretty low.

Tokyo, Japan
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Quoting 100. StormTrackerScott:
.
Movin' on up...LOL
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Another candidate to become a category 5 monster is in its genesis out in the WPAC: 93W.



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Is the eye getting close to this station?

Tateyama AB, Japan

The lowest pressure at a Japanese station I've found so far. I wish they took readings every hour. The center has passed.

Hachijojima, Japan
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Once the Polar Vortex sets up across the Great lakes then watch out as this may be a permanent feature for the upcoming Winter combined with an unusually strong southern jet. Also there are going to be several disturbances riding the southern jet this weekend from TX to FL providing some stormy weather from the Texas Coast over to C & N FL.

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.
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Quoting 98. barbamz:
Sorry in case this has already been posted here:



In this incredible six-second video, a fisherman narrowly avoids a bolt of lightning while boating on Lake Athens in Texas. The clip was uploaded to the Facebook page of angler Tucker K. Owings earlier this week, who said the video was caught with a GoPro.
Source Huffington Post today.
That's freekin' scary
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Sorry in case this has already been posted here:



In this incredible six-second video, a fisherman narrowly avoids a bolt of lightning while boating on Lake Athens in Texas. The clip was uploaded to the Facebook page of angler Tucker K. Owings earlier this week, who said the video was caught with a GoPro.
Source Huffington Post today.
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Quoting 94. hydrus:
I am in Middle TN. Mets are talking a bit more about the potential for unusually cold weather and possible wintry precip. The models actually bring some winter weather on the Cumberland Plateau where I am...Interesting if it pans out. I do believe this will not be like the past two winters which were very mild. People here said there have been fall weather seasons worse than the recent winters.
hydrus... I stopped a few days in Pigeon Forge on my way back from Ohio headed to south Florida in June...I never realized that there was a tourist attraction(trap) there. But I did really enjoy it. Saw a few great shows and had some great food.
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Quoting 94. hydrus:
I am in Middle TN. Mets are talking a bit more about the potential for unusually cold weather and possible wintry precip. The models actually bring some winter weather on the Cumberland Plateau where I am...Interesting if it pans out. I do believe this will not be like the past two winters which were very mild. People here said there have been fall weather seasons worse than the recent winters.


I keep saying this Winter looks very cold and stormy for the SE US. I don't care what Accuweather says.
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Quoting 93. SFLWeatherman:
? here in WPB i'm loving it i'm going down to 64 to 67 at night and 82 to 86 at day time! this time of year the avg is 87 at day and 71 at night so for me it is Fall!:) and no rain!:)
SFL......Also feeling like we may have made it through another "H" season...Sure hope so
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Quoting 43. pcola57:


LOL Hydrus.. :)
Hoping I'll get my "nip" weather wise too..
You have a great sense of humor.. :)
(Going to Kentucky??.. :)
I am in Middle TN. Mets are talking a bit more about the potential for unusually cold weather and possible wintry precip. The models actually bring some winter weather on the Cumberland Plateau where I am...Interesting if it pans out. I do believe this will not be like the past two winters which were very mild. People here said there have been fall weather seasons worse than the recent winters.
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? here in WPB i'm loving it i'm going down to 64 to 67 at night and 82 to 86 at day time! this time of year the avg is 87 at day and 71 at night so for me it is Fall!:) and no rain!:)
Quoting 89. StormTrackerScott:
Beginning to think Fall is never going to come to FL. 84 with a dewpoint of 71 here in Orlando. Sticky!
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Quoting 90. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it will just got to wait longer than everyone else first
Still very warm, but, there seems to be a breath of fresh air very, very, early in the mornings.
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Quoting 89. StormTrackerScott:
Beginning to think Fall is never going to come to FL. 84 with a dewpoint of 71 here in Orlando. Sticky!


70 degrees here..sun was supposed to appear in moments today..got nada..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14451
Quoting 89. StormTrackerScott:
Beginning to think Fall is never going to come to FL. 84 with a dewpoint of 71 here in Orlando. Sticky!
it will just got to wait longer than everyone else first
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.