Powerful Cyclone Phailin not a Mega-Disaster for India

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on October 13, 2013

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Tropical Cyclone Phailin has weakened to a tropical storm over northern India after making landfall on the northeast coast of India near the town of Gopalpur (population 7,000) at 15:45 UTC (11:45 am EDT) on Saturday, October 12, 2013. According to media reports from the BBC, the cyclone brought a storm surge in excess of 3 meters (10 feet) to portions of the coast, and at least fourteen people had been killed by the storm. Phailin was weakening substantially at landfall, due to interaction with land, and was rated a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), four hours before landfall. The pressure bottomed out at 938 mb in Gopalpur as the eye passed over, and the city reported sustained winds of 56 mph, gusting to 85 mph, in the eyewall. A 938 mb pressure is what one expects to find in a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds, using the "Dvorak technique" of satellite wind and pressure estimation, but I expect Phailin's winds were at Category 3 strength, 125 - 130 mph, at landfall, due to the eyewall replacement cycle that was going on at the time. The India Meteorology Department (IMD) still rated Phailin as a Category 2 storm with winds over 100 mph six hours after making landfall, when it was about 60 miles inland. Satellite images show that Phailin's most intense thunderstorms and heaviest rains are no longer near the coast, but have pushed inland near the India/Nepal border. Rainfall amounts as high as 9.49" (241 mm) were reported in the Odisha region where Phailin made landfall.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phailin, taken at approximately 07:30 UTC on October 13, 2013. At the time, Phailin was a tropical storm with winds 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

A victory for India's cyclone evacuation and preparation efforts
While we have yet to hear from the worst affected area, the town of Gopalpur in Odisha where the eye of Phailin came ashore, it is clear that India has avoided a humanitarian mega-disaster like occurred in October 1999, when the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone killed nearly 10,000 people in the same region of the county. The India Meteorology Department (IMD) provided excellent early warning information for Phailin, predicting on October 9 that the cyclone would strike on October 12 with at least Category 2-strength winds. Civil defense in India took the warnings seriously, and operated the largest evacuation effort in the nation's history--nearly 1 million people--one that undoubtedly saved hundreds of lives. There were far more shelters available to put the evacuees in, compared to in 1999, thanks to a major effort to build more shelters after the cyclone. The high death toll in the 1999 cyclone was blamed, in part, due to lack of shelters.

How strong was Phailin?
According to satellite strength estimates made by the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Phailin was just as strong as the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone, 12 hours before landfall. Both storms were rated as Category 5 storms with winds of 160 mph. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) strength estimates for Phailin were considerably lower than that of JTWC, but since both centers use satellite estimates rather than direct measurements of the winds and pressure, we don't know which center was correct. It is true that satellite estimates using the same techniques give different central pressures for the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans--i.e., a storm with the same appearance on satellite imagery will have a higher pressure in the Atlantic than in the Pacific (see this chart of the differences.) However, the satellite estimates give the same winds for each ocean, since the lower pressures in the Pacific are due to the fact that background pressures in the Pacific are lower, and it takes a much lower central pressure to generate the same winds as in an Atlantic storm. It may be the satellite-wind relationship is different in the Indian Ocean, though. IMD has looked at some buoy data to try and calibrate their satellite strength estimates, but high-end tropical cyclones are uncommon enough in the Indian Ocean that I doubt we really know whether or not Indian Ocean cyclones have the same winds as a hurricane in the Atlantic with the same satellite signature. Another thing to consider is that the IMD uses 3-minute average winds for their advisories, and JTWC uses 1-minute, so the winds in the IMD advisories will be lower by at least 2%, due to the longer averaging period. (I said incorrectly that IMD uses 10-minute averaging times in my Saturday blog post.) We need a hurricane hunter aircraft in the Indian Ocean to fly into tropical cyclones and take measurements of the actual winds to resolve the issue.


Figure 2. Triple trouble: Tropical Cyclone Phailin, Typhoon Nari, and Typhoon Wipha parade across the Earth in this MODIS satellite image montage taken on October 13, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Nari heads for Vietnam
Category 2 Typhoon Nari is headed for landfall in Vietnam, after battering the Philippines on Friday. Nari killed thirteen people and left 2.1 million people without power on the main Philippine island of Luzon, after hitting on Friday night near midnight local time as a Category 3 typhoon with 115 mph winds. The core of the storm passed about 80 miles north of the capital of Manila, sparing the capital major flooding, but the storm dumped torrential rains in excess of ten inches to the northeast of Manilla. Nari is under moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, which should keep intensification relatively slow, and increasing interaction with land will also act to slow intensification. Nari is expected to be at Category 1 strength when it makes landfall in Vietnam near 20 - 23 UTC on Monday.

Typhoon Wipha a threat to Japan
Huge and powerful Category 4 Typhoon Wipha continues intensifying as it heads northwest towards Japan. The storm is expected to peak at 145 mph winds on Monday near 12 UTC. By Tuesday, Wipha will recurve to the northeast and begin weakening, passing just offshore from Tokyo, Japan, sometime between 00 - 06 UTC on Wednesday. Wipha will be rapidly weakening as it makes its closest approach to Tokyo, due to high wind shear and cooler waters, and the coast of Japan should experience winds below hurricane force if the core of Wipha passes offshore as expected. High winds and heavy rains from Wipha may be a concern for the Fukushima nuclear site, where rainfall from Typhoon Man-Yi on September 16 complicated clean-up efforts of the reactors damaged by the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami.

98L in the Eastern Atlantic disorganized
A tropical wave (Invest 98L) 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is headed west-northwest at 10 mph. Satellite loops show that 98L has lost most of its organization and heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is under a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear, and the shear is expected to remain high for the next two days. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 10%, and 5-day odds of 10%. 98L's projected west-northwest track is expected take it close to the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Thursday, according to the 00Z Sunday run of the European model.

Moisture associated with Tropical Storm Octave in the Eastern Pacific bringing rain to Texas
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Octave is headed NNW towards Mexico's Baja Peninsula, but is expected to dissipate before making it there. Octave is embedded in a large plume of tropical moisture that is riding up to the northeast over Mexico and Texas. Flood Watches are posted over large regions of Texas, where widespread rains of 2 - 4", with some 6 - 8" amounts, are expected.

Jeff Masters

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456. CaribBoy
3:03 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
Quoting 451. VR46L:


Could be worse could be a cat5 bearing down on ya !


Lol but that won't happen too soon xD I think...
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6011
455. 1900hurricane
2:52 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
Quoting 437. Torito:
Awesome polar low from 2003 I just found while researching cyclones...


That's not actually a polar low, but rather a more normal occlusion/seclusion. If you really want to see what a polar low looks like, check out this post from the CIMSS Satellite Blog.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
454. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:49 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
453. Tropicsweatherpr
2:47 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
800 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013

...OCTAVE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT TURNS NORTHWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 113.7W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE
NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS.



TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
800 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/11 KT. OCTAVE IS ON OR JUST NORTH
OF THE LATITUDE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS
EAST. AS A RESULT...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ON
TUESDAY AS THE CYCLONE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND A BROAD
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT...BUT REMAINS
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.

OCTAVE IS MOVING OVER A NARROW TONGUE OF COLD WATER LESS THAN 24C...
AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AS A
RESULT. AVERAGE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO
45-50 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50 KT.
OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS IT REMAINS OVER SUB-24C SSTS AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF MORE THAN 30 KT BY 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE
CYCLONE WILL ALSO BE PASSING CLOSE ENOUGH TO A TIGHT SST GRADIENT
AND WARMER WATER JUST TO ITS EAST THAT COULD KEEP AN INFLUX OF
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR FLOWING INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH
WOULD HELP MAINTAIN CONVECTION AND TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY A
LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...SHIP PINX-
WESTERDAM THAT HAS BEEN TRAVERSING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
BAJA THIS MORNING HAS RECENTLY REPORTED 31-KT WINDS...INDICATING
THAT OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF THE WIND FIELD IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE IS NOW OCCURRING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
TIMING...STRENGTH...AND SIZE OF THE OUTER WINDFIELD OF OCTAVE AT
LANDFALL...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR POTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
EVEN IF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOT OBSERVED ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM OCTAVE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
THEREFORE...INTERESTS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 22.6N 113.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 24.2N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 25.4N 112.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 26.0N 112.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/1200Z 26.0N 112.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14076
452. Tropicsweatherpr
2:47 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162013
800 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013

INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF PRISCILLA IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN
EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES
ARE BETWEEN 30-35 KT...THE EARLIER ASCAT DATA SHOWED WINDS BETWEEN
35-40 KT...AND THE MOST RECENT OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATE IS T2.9/43
KT. THE LATTER TWO ESTIMATES SUGGEST AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DUE TO 20 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO RELAX IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND PRISCILLA SHOULD
REMAIN OVER WATER OF AT LEAST 26C THROUGH 48 HOURS. AT THE SAME
TIME...HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING COULD BE LIMITED BY
INGESTION OF DRIER AIR WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES NORTHWARD. BY DAY
3...INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...COLDER WATER...AND MORE
STABLE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ALL INDUCE QUICK WEAKENING. THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS
CYCLE...AND IN FACT THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS BRING PRISCILLA NEAR
OR AT HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.

PRISCILLA HAS TURNED NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER EASTERN MEXICO...AND ITS
INITIAL MOTION IS 010/9 KT. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL THE BREAK IN THE
RIDGE ALONG 120W FILLS IN AND FORCES PRISCILLA TO SLOW DOWN AND
TURN NORTHWESTWARD. A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE OCCURRED ON THIS FORECAST CYCLE...WHICH REQUIRED A FAIRLY
SIZEABLE WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST AS
WELL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST STILL LIES
EAST OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE...SO
AN ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENT MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 15.2N 115.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 16.2N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 17.3N 116.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 18.2N 117.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 19.0N 118.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 20.5N 119.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 21.0N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1200Z 20.5N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14076
451. VR46L
2:43 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
Quoting 450. CaribBoy:
LOOP

15N 50W heading for Fishland.


Could be worse could be a cat5 bearing down on ya !
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6842
450. CaribBoy
2:39 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
LOOP

15N 50W heading for Fishland.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6011
449. hydrus
2:38 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
Quoting 444. Xulonn:
What is your reason for doubting NOAA?

There is no indication that an El Nino is on the horizon. Data and analysis indicates a likely ENSO neutral state through next spring.

Current ONI values have been running -0.3 degrees C, (La Nina is -0.5, and El Nino is +0.5 degrees C for three consecutive months).
The strange behavior of the oceans and atmosphere continues. I am very curious to see what this winter brings.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20547
448. catastropheadjuster
2:37 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
Quoting 440. MahFL:


Contact these nice people.......


Link


Thank you, I'm there looking around, trying to find it.

sheri
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3657
447. hydrus
2:36 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
nari about to make landfall on a already soaked region.Bad news.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20547
446. CaribBoy
2:36 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
Quoting 445. stoormfury:
It appears that the COC of 98L is trying to relocate near the ball of convection near 14N 52 W


Would be good... but it seems that the fishes always win this year.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6011
445. stoormfury
2:35 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
It appears that the COC of 98L is trying to relocate near the ball of convection near 14N 52 W
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2635
444. Xulonn
2:29 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
Quoting 403. Stormwatch247:
The way the E PAC is firin' up with Octave & Priscilla, it is "acting like" an El Nino is on the horizon! Although the PAC temps may not be rising much, do ya think ..... it is finally going to happen soon? Especially the way the moisture from the Pacific storms this year keeps getting blown off to the NE toward TX.
What is your reason for doubting NOAA?

There is no indication that an El Nino is on the horizon. Data and analysis indicates a likely ENSO neutral state through next spring.

Current ONI values have been running -0.3 degrees C, (La Nina is -0.5, and El Nino is +0.5 degrees C for three consecutive months).
Member Since: June 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1422
443. washingtonian115
2:22 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
Quoting 442. ncstorm:
I dont know about yall but I will be glad to see that yellow ball of sunshine..it has been cloudy since ex Karen started her way up and down the coast..

DURING WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTH...THE
RESULT OF UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION.
WHILE THICKNESSES WILL NEVER BECOME TOO IMPRESSIVE...SURFACE
RESPONSE TO THIS WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WARM SW FLOW AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFFSHORE...CREATING...FINALLY...MORE SEASONABLE
FALL WEATHER WITH MORE SUNSHINE.
I had to remind myself what that yellow thing was in the sky this morning.It looked mighty familiar.I had to look it up on google.It's called a sun I think.It sure is drying us out though.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16448
442. ncstorm
2:13 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
I dont know about yall but I will be glad to see that yellow ball of sunshine..it has been cloudy since ex Karen started her way up and down the coast..

DURING WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTH...THE
RESULT OF UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION.
WHILE THICKNESSES WILL NEVER BECOME TOO IMPRESSIVE...SURFACE
RESPONSE TO THIS WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WARM SW FLOW AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFFSHORE...CREATING...FINALLY...MORE SEASONABLE
FALL WEATHER WITH MORE SUNSHINE.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14637
441. skycycle
2:12 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
Death toll from Phailin is unfortunately rising - Indian news reports are now saying 33 confirmed dead, 32 of them in Orisha :/
Member Since: August 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 189
440. MahFL
2:03 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
Quoting 432. catastropheadjuster:
Is there somewhere you can go for up to the minute satellite feed


Contact these nice people.......


Link
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3381
439. whitewabit (Mod)
2:02 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
Quoting 430. Torito:
Octave



Priscilla



No "Fuji dance" yet.


Won't happen ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31280
438. yoboi
2:01 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
Quoting 304. Coldwellrnd:

Huh. Neapolitan, is that you?? You totally need to take a chill pill. A little humor here and there never hurt anyone dude. The tropics are quiet anyway...
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2337
437. Torito
1:59 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
Awesome polar low from 2003 I just found while researching cyclones...

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
436. VR46L
1:58 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
Quoting 430. Torito:
Octave



Priscilla



No "Fuji dance" yet.


Too far away :(

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6842
435. bappit
1:49 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
Quoting 423. pottery:

OK, that answers my question. Thanks.

The global numbers are less than the numbers for the Pacific. It says update Oct. 14, but I don't think so.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5961
434. Torito
1:48 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
433. LargoFl
1:45 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37103
432. catastropheadjuster
1:45 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
Good morning everyone. I've got a question, you guys and girls are so good on here with maps and satellite and all. Is there somewhere you can go for up to the minute satellite feed like if you wanna look go down a road and look on different property? See someone has spotted our stolen Chev Dually Western Hauler, it was stolen Jan 13, 2013 and I guess there getting brave by driving it. I just want to look around in the Vincenty where it was seen. Can someone help me? I know this is off subject but I figured you all where the best to turn to.

sheri

Looks like hurricane season is over.
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3657
431. LargoFl
1:43 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST TEXAS
INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TODAY AND INTO
THE EVENING...THEN IN THE WARM SECTOR IN WAKE OF A WARM
FRONT LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO LATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. DUE TO A RICH AND DEEP SUPPLY OF GULF OF MEXICO AND
PACIFIC MOISTURE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY
PROVIDING AMOUNTS FROM ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
FOUR OR FIVE IN SOME LOCATIONS. STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
...HAIL...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING...ESPECIALLY WITH FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE. THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PONDING
OF WATER IN STREETS...LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. URBAN AND
SMALL STREAMS IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY ALSO FILL TO MINOR OVERFLOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$

06
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37103
430. Torito
1:42 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
Octave



Priscilla



No "Fuji dance" yet.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
429. Torito
1:41 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
428. LargoFl
1:37 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
Coastal Flood Advisory

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
915 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013

VAZ099-100-142115-
/O.EXT.KAKQ.CF.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-131015T0000Z/
ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
915 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATION...ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE...INCLUDING WACHAPREAGUE...AND AREAS NEAR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...INCLUDING KIPTOPEKE.

* TIMING...WITHIN ONE TO TWO HOURS ON EITHER SIDE OF HIGH TIDE.

* TIDES...TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL AVERAGE 1.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL. AT
WACHAPREAGUE...HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 539 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH A FORECAST WATER LEVEL AROUND 6.2 FT MLLW. MINOR FLOODING
AT WACHAPREAGUE BEGINS AT 6.5 FT MLLW. AT KIPTOPEKE...HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 542 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FORECAST WATER
LEVEL AROUND 4.4 FT MLLW. MINOR FLOODING AT KIPTOPEKE BEGINS AT
4.5 FT MLLW.

* IMPACTS...THE TIDAL SURGE WILL RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE...
AND NEAR TIDAL RIVERS AND CREEKS. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN
RESULTS IN SOME ROAD CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE
ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

&&

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37103
427. SFLWeatherman
1:37 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4424
426. LargoFl
1:36 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
Quoting 421. pottery:

Is that Atlantic, or overall ?
and thats a good thing
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37103
425. Torito
1:36 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
Quoting 423. pottery:

OK, that answers my question. Thanks.


Yea, no problem.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
424. Torito
1:36 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
Quoting 421. pottery:

Is that Atlantic, or overall ?


atlantic.

global ACE Is found here. (it is even worse...)

Link
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
423. pottery
1:34 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
Quoting Torito:
Global ACE....

Link

OK, that answers my question. Thanks.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24120
422. Torito
1:33 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
421. pottery
1:33 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
Quoting Torito:
This is the least active hurricane season since 1983......


Is that Atlantic, or overall ?
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420. Torito
1:32 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
Global ACE....

Link
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
419. Torito
1:30 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
This is the least active hurricane season since 1983......



EDIT: This is the atlantic hurricane season.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
418. CaicosRetiredSailor
1:25 PM GMT on October 14, 2013


Shaking and cringing due to much close lightning...

More heavy rain

power off now
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417. washingtonian115
1:24 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
Quoting 414. Neapolitan:
135 dead = LOL?

Seriously?
He's laughing at the irony.People predicted more deaths from the cyclone.Not due to a religion riot.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16448
416. Eugeniopr
1:18 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
Quoting 270. CaribBoy:
G A M E - O V E R


My friend from St. Barth, RIC (rest in calm) until 2014. I think you are right, for 2013, the game is over.

Take Care
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415. Patrap
1:17 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
My same thought when I sat down and that stared back at me,..and it was a rumor the bridge was collapsing that started the rush, not any "religion"

Laughing at the loss of Human life, says a lot.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
414. Neapolitan
1:15 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
Quoting 387. SLU:
LOL ..

A category 4/5 hurricane slams into India and kills 20.

A religious stampede in India results in at least 115 dead.

Link
135 dead = LOL?

Seriously?
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413. Torito
1:14 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
OCTAVE



PRISCILLA

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
412. CaribBoy
1:14 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE AMPLIFICATION OF A
LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
AS THIS FEATURE EVOLVES...THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WILL DESTABILIZE...ALLOWING DEEP MOISTURE TO SURGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
AND A EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. THESE INGREDIENTS COMBINED WILL RESULT
IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY REMAIN HIGH.

And we wont get a drop... as usual. Too far EAST... too far WEST... too far SOUTH... too far NORTH....



....always the same story.
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411. Torito
1:09 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
410. barbamz
1:08 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
India's Cyclone Phailin: Hundreds of thousands return home
BBC, 14 October 2013 Last updated at 06:55 GMT

Hundreds of thousands of people who were evacuated before Cyclone Phailin crashed into eastern India have begun returning to their homes.

But many will remain in shelters as their homes and businesses were wrecked by the strongest cyclone in 14 years.

As the storm weakened a vast relief operation got under way in Orissa and Andhra Pradesh states, where officials say up to one million were displaced.

Mass evacuations managed to keep the death toll to a bare minimum.

Officials said 22 people were killed - all but one of the deaths were in Orissa.

The cyclone flattened many coastal homes, uprooted trees and blocked roads in the two states but the evacuation effort - described by officials as "the biggest in India's history for such an event" - ensured the death toll remained low. ...


Whole article see link above.

BBC weather video from today:
Storm watch around the world
Darren Bett looks at the progress of powerful storms across Asia.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 52 Comments: 5715
409. unknowncomic
1:07 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
As the Atlantic season winds down and talk of El Nino is out there, the European Model was consistent this year in not showing phantom storms.
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408. Torito
1:07 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
Wilpha looks beautiful. It appears to be forming a HUGE EYE..

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407. Torito
1:06 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
TD Phailin (max wind speeds 30mph). it is expected to finish dissipating by the end of the day.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
406. CaribBoy
1:05 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
So .... I see 98L is going into fish land :/ with all its rain :// the rain we NEEEEEED :///

ONCE AGAIN IN 2013 ://////////
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.