Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Phailin Rapidly Intensifying, Headed Towards India

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:22 PM GMT on October 10, 2013

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Very dangerous Tropical Cyclone Phailin, in the North Indian Ocean's Bay of Bengal, has put on an impressive burst of rapid intensification, going from a tropical storm with 65 mph winds to a formidable Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds in just twelve hours. Satellite estimates of Phailin's strength at 8 am EDT ranged as high as 135 mph. Satellite images show that Phailin, whose name means "a sapphire" in Thai, continues to intensify. The cloud tops of the very intense thunderstorms in the eyewall are expanding and cooling, showing that their updrafts are growing stronger and pushing the clouds higher into the atmosphere. Water temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, and the ocean heat content is very high, 80 - 100 kJ/cm^2--a level often associated with rapid intensification. With wind shear low, Phailin should be able to continue to intensify until an eyewall replacement cycle begins. It is very difficult for a tropical cyclone to maintain an eye diameter less than ten miles across before the inner core grows unstable and the eyewall collapses, with a new, larger-diameter eyewall forming from an outer spiral band. This process typically weakens the top winds of a tropical cyclone by 5 - 15 mph, but spreads hurricane-force winds over a larger area of ocean, resulting a larger storm surge, but less wind damage. With Phailin's eye diameter already down to a tiny 9 miles, an eyewall replacement cycle is likely to occur by Friday morning.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phailin, taken at approximately 07:30 UTC on October 10, 2013. At the time, Phailin had top winds of 75 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Phailin
The models are in tight agreement that Phailin will track northwest into the northeast coast of India, with landfall expected to occur between 06 - 12 UTC on Saturday. The 11 am EDT Thursday forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center predicts that Phailin will peak as a top-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds 12 hours before landfall. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is predicting that Phailin will be a borderline Category 2/Category 3 storm at landfall. The 06Z Thursday run of the HWRF model predicted that Phailin would be a strong Category 3 storm with 130 mph winds at landfall on Saturday.


Figure 2. Storm surge forecast for Tropical Cyclone Phailin, made on October 10, 2013. The peak surge was predicted to be 87 cm (2.9'). This forecast is likely to be a considerable underestimate of the surge, given Phailin's recent rapid intensification. Image credit: IMD.

The Bay of Bengal is notorious for deadly tropical cyclones
There is good reason to be concerned when a major tropical cyclone forms in the Bay of Bengal. Twenty-six of the thirty-five deadliest tropical cyclones in world history have been Bay of Bengal storms. During the past two centuries, 42% of Earth's tropical cyclone-associated deaths have occurred in Bangladesh, and 27% have occurred in India (Nicholls et al., 1995.) Phailin is likely to be the strongest tropical cyclone to affect India in fourteen years, since the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone. That terrible storm hit Northeast India in the Indian state of Odisha (formerly called Orissa) near the city of Bhubaneswar, as a Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds on October 29, 1999. The mighty cyclone, which peaked at Category 5 strength with 160 mph winds and a 912 mb central pressure shortly before landfall, drove a storm surge of 26 feet (8 meters) onto the coast. The storm stalled just inland, dumping torrential rains on portions of India already saturated from the landfall of Category 4 Tropical Cyclone 04B just twelve days before. The catastrophe killed 9,658 people and left $2.5 billion in damage (1999 dollars), India's most expensive and fourth deadliest tropical cyclone in the past 100 years. Although Phailin is expected to hit the same province of India that the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone hit, Phailin's landfall location is predicted to fall about 100 miles farther to the south, in a region where the coast is not as low-lying. This should keep the death toll due to storm surge much lower compared to the 1999 Odisha Cyclone, where more than 70% of the deaths occurred due to the storm surge. The latest storm surge forecast from IMD (Figure 2) predicts a peak surge under 3', but this is much too low, considering Phailin's recent round of rapid intensification. Phailin's heavy rains will be capable of causing great destruction, as did the rains from the 1999 Odisha cyclone. More than 2,000 of the deaths from that storm occurred due to fresh water flooding in the town of Padmapur, located more than 150 miles from the coast. Deforestation was cited as a contributing cause to these destructive floods that killed 36% of the town's population.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a detailed post on India's tropical cyclone history.

References
Nicholls, R.J.N., N. Mimura, J.C. Topping, 1995, "Climate change in south and south-east Asia: some implications for coastal areas," J Glob Environ Eng 1995;1:137–54.



98L in the Eastern Atlantic more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 98L) located about 400 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is headed west to west-northwest at about 10 mph. Satellite loops show that 98L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms with a substantial amount of spin. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear today, but the shear is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, Friday - Monday, making Thursday the most likely day for development. The UKMET model develops the disturbance into a tropical depression this week, but the European and GFS models do not. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 50%, and 5-day odds of 50%. 98L's projected west-northwest track is expected take it several hundred miles northeast of the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands by the middle of next week, according to the 00Z Thursday morning runs of the GFS and European models.

Typhoon Nari headed towards the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, Category 1 Typhoon Nari is expected to intensify into a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds and make landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines near 12 UTC Friday. Nari will then make a second landfall in Vietnam around 00 UTC on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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I know the most attention is to Pahilin but Nari will cause a serious blow to the Phillipenes. 00z Best Track is up to 100kts.

24W NARI 131011 0000 15.7N 124.3E WPAC 100 948
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572. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NARI (T1325)
9:00 AM JST October 11 2013
======================================

Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Nari (970 hPa) located at 15.3N 124.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Storm Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in north quadrant
150 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 15.9N 120.6E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Overland Luzon
48 HRS: 15.8N 116.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
72 HRS: 15.8N 112.5E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
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Quoting 568. wxgeek723:


Maybe you haven't noticed but my sense of humor derives from either sarcasm or hyperbole. Anyway yesterday when talking about the credibility of IMD and other TC forecasting agencies, and then earlier today you posted JTWC forecast for TD in the WPAC. Just messing man.

I know you weren't being serious, neither was I. Anyways... :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32688
6.5 Dvorak number for Pahilin.

TPIO10 PGTW 110012
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN)
B. 10/2330Z
C. 15.7N
D. 88.9E
E. ONE/MET7
F. T6.5/7.0/D2.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS AN
E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT OF 6.5.
MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/2141Z 14.4N 91.6E MMHS
BERMEA
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569. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2013OCT10 233200 3.9 980.9 +3.3 63.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -82.91 -81.34 UNIFRM N/A N/A 13.36 -142.15

3.5+ Dvorak Tokyo ADT on WIPHA

wow!
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Quoting 557. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Nice to say you're being your typical overdramatic self, Trent. But, lol, where'd I say that at?


Maybe you haven't noticed but my sense of humor derives from either sarcasm or hyperbole. Anyway yesterday when talking about the credibility of IMD and other TC forecasting agencies, and then earlier today you posted JTWC forecast for TD in the WPAC. Just messing man.
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Quoting 566. wxchaser97:

Cody this morning: "Non-NHC forecasting agencies suck. That's all there is to it."


Can I consider Cody a one-man agency? hehehe.

Typhoon Nari:

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Quoting 557. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Nice to say you're being your typical over-dramatic self, Trent. But, lol, where'd I say that at?

Cody this morning: "Non-NHC forecasting agencies suck. That's all there is to it."
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Quoting 563. nwobilderburg:


sadly... only the very rich can leave in india... many people dont have the resources to leave


I know, but you can take a ride in an overcrowded train or truck... Even by Elephant, I would be moving....


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.
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Quoting 555. sunlinepr:
Living near the coast, this is the moment to leave everything behind and drive or take a ride North, just like many did in Katrina driving up to Memphis....



sadly... only the very rich can leave in india... many people dont have the resources to leave
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00z Best Track for Pahilin at 135kts.

02B PHAILIN 131011 0000 15.8N 88.8E IO 135 922
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First bands of Typhoon Nari approaching Luzon.

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ok im perking the Coffee for the blogs night crew folks...good night everyone!
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Quoting 544. wxgeek723:
Cody yesterday: "I don't really put much trust into any tropical cyclone forecasting agency other than the NHC"

Cody today: "OMG GUYS did you see the new forecast from the JTWC!?!?!"

Nice to see you're being your typical over-dramatic self, Trent. But, lol, where'd I say anything like that second quote at?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32688
Very dangerous thunderstorms moving into Kansas this evening, wind gusts to near 80mph have been reported.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
626 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

COC063-125-KSC023-181-199-110100-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0317.000000T0000Z-131011T0100Z/
KIT CARSON CO-YUMA CO-SHERMAN KS-CHEYENNE KS-WALLACE KS-

626 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN WALLACE...SOUTHWESTERN CHEYENNE...SHERMAN...SOUTHEASTERN YUMA AND EASTERN KIT CARSON COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM MDT/800 PM CDT/...

AT 621 PM MDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HALE TO 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF RULETON TO 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF SHARON SPRINGS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. THE STRONGEST PART OF THIS STORM IS NEAR RULETON WHERE STRONG WINDS HAVE REPORTEDLY BROKEN POWER POLES.

THESE ARE VERY DANGEROUS STORMS.

HAZARD...80 MPH WIND GUSTS.


SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GOODLAND...ST. FRANCIS...WHEELER AND EDSON.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 30.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH TORNADO LIKE WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED. MOBILE HOMES AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE AND MAY BE OVERTURNED. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT PROPERTY DAMAGE.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS RESULTING IN AREAS OF NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DIRT. USE EXTREME CAUTION IF YOU MUST TRAVEL AND BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING VISIBILITY.

&&

LAT...LON 3989 10184 3958 10146 3910 10150 3905 10211
3924 10229 3956 10248
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 224DEG 46KT 3970 10211 3943 10190 3913 10185

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...80MPH

$$

MARTIN
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Living near the coast, this is the moment to leave everything behind and drive or take a ride North, just like many did in Katrina driving up to Memphis....

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02B PHAILIN 131011 0000 15.8N 88.8E IO 135 922


Link
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11301
fallishere may be trollisback.
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Quoting 549. fallishere:
it was 68 this morning and next thursday lows at 59. 82 to 86 for highs all next week


Yeah right. Looks like summer pop up showers over FL.

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Quoting 523. StormTrackerScott:
98L has really organized on the 850 vorticity charts.


They could actually call this one IMO.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
547. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2013OCT10 233200 5.0 956.7 2.7 90.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 MW ON OFF OFF -77.10 -81.41 EMBC N/A 70.3 15.30 -124.58

5.0 from Tokyo ADT

possible 80 knots from JMA at next advisory on NARI
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Quoting 539. fallishere:
looks like theres a huge cold front comming down all the way down past miami on monday. gonna give florida temps down into the low 50's on tuesday next week


Your full of it. Highs in the low 90's all next week here in Orlando so think again and by the way Fall is not here in FL.
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Cody yesterday: "I don't really put much trust into any tropical cyclone forecasting agency other than the NHC"

Cody today: "OMG GUYS did you see the new forecast from the JTWC!?!?!"
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Quoting 540. LargoFl:
I dont see any models bringing it into the carribean at this time.....
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Quoting 536. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Did I? What'd I say? Lol.


That there would be several feet of snow. No way did I ever think that would happen in early October.
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Quoting 527. StormTrackerScott:


Yeah NE Caribbean needs to monitor 98L.


Could bring surprises... still moving West, coc has kept around 10N

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Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2553
Quoting 535. StormTrackerScott:


Thanks man again you really nailed last weekend's Blizzard and Tornado Outbreak. Great Job!

Did I? What'd I say? Lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32688
Quoting 532. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Maybe one or two. Damaging winds will by far be the threat for the next few hours before storms rapidly wane. Tomorrow, wind profiles are favorable for tornadoes but instability is meager. Maybe one or two.


Thanks man again you really nailed last weekend's Blizzard and Tornado Outbreak. Great Job!
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Going to be a very wet mon-tues-wens in Texas next week...
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Quoting 528. HuracanTaino:
It's probably a TD already...


Not a TD yet but it sure is hell fighting off that shear.


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Quoting 525. StormTrackerScott:


More tornadoes this weekend buddy?



Maybe one or two. Damaging winds will by far be the threat for the next few hours before storms rapidly wane. Tomorrow, wind profiles are favorable for tornadoes but instability is meager. Maybe one or two.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32688
Quoting LargoFl:
goes poof in 72 hours...18z gfs
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Phailin has leveled off in intensity. Cloud tops near the eye aren't quite as intense as they were earlier. The eye looks warmer than ever though.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32688
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
98L has really organized on the 850 vorticity charts.

It's probably a TD already...
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Quoting 524. HuracanTaino:
I khow everybody is busy followig the strong storms in the indian ocean, glad you are paying attention to what's going on in the atlantic for a change,which is more of our concern...of course wishing the best for those people back there...


Yeah NE Caribbean needs to monitor 98L.
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goes poof in 72 hours...18z gfs
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Quoting 519. TropicalAnalystwx13:

One eyewall. I think what you're seeing is just spiral banding extending out in all four quadrants.


More tornadoes this weekend buddy?


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Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I don't think this going out to sea folks.
I khow everybody is busy followig the strong storms in the indian ocean, glad you are paying attention to what's going on in the atlantic for a change,which is more of our concern...of course wishing the best for those people out there...
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98L has really organized on the 850 vorticity charts.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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