Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Phailin Rapidly Intensifying, Headed Towards India

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:22 PM GMT on October 10, 2013

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Very dangerous Tropical Cyclone Phailin, in the North Indian Ocean's Bay of Bengal, has put on an impressive burst of rapid intensification, going from a tropical storm with 65 mph winds to a formidable Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds in just twelve hours. Satellite estimates of Phailin's strength at 8 am EDT ranged as high as 135 mph. Satellite images show that Phailin, whose name means "a sapphire" in Thai, continues to intensify. The cloud tops of the very intense thunderstorms in the eyewall are expanding and cooling, showing that their updrafts are growing stronger and pushing the clouds higher into the atmosphere. Water temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, and the ocean heat content is very high, 80 - 100 kJ/cm^2--a level often associated with rapid intensification. With wind shear low, Phailin should be able to continue to intensify until an eyewall replacement cycle begins. It is very difficult for a tropical cyclone to maintain an eye diameter less than ten miles across before the inner core grows unstable and the eyewall collapses, with a new, larger-diameter eyewall forming from an outer spiral band. This process typically weakens the top winds of a tropical cyclone by 5 - 15 mph, but spreads hurricane-force winds over a larger area of ocean, resulting a larger storm surge, but less wind damage. With Phailin's eye diameter already down to a tiny 9 miles, an eyewall replacement cycle is likely to occur by Friday morning.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phailin, taken at approximately 07:30 UTC on October 10, 2013. At the time, Phailin had top winds of 75 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Phailin
The models are in tight agreement that Phailin will track northwest into the northeast coast of India, with landfall expected to occur between 06 - 12 UTC on Saturday. The 11 am EDT Thursday forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center predicts that Phailin will peak as a top-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds 12 hours before landfall. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is predicting that Phailin will be a borderline Category 2/Category 3 storm at landfall. The 06Z Thursday run of the HWRF model predicted that Phailin would be a strong Category 3 storm with 130 mph winds at landfall on Saturday.


Figure 2. Storm surge forecast for Tropical Cyclone Phailin, made on October 10, 2013. The peak surge was predicted to be 87 cm (2.9'). This forecast is likely to be a considerable underestimate of the surge, given Phailin's recent rapid intensification. Image credit: IMD.

The Bay of Bengal is notorious for deadly tropical cyclones
There is good reason to be concerned when a major tropical cyclone forms in the Bay of Bengal. Twenty-six of the thirty-five deadliest tropical cyclones in world history have been Bay of Bengal storms. During the past two centuries, 42% of Earth's tropical cyclone-associated deaths have occurred in Bangladesh, and 27% have occurred in India (Nicholls et al., 1995.) Phailin is likely to be the strongest tropical cyclone to affect India in fourteen years, since the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone. That terrible storm hit Northeast India in the Indian state of Odisha (formerly called Orissa) near the city of Bhubaneswar, as a Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds on October 29, 1999. The mighty cyclone, which peaked at Category 5 strength with 160 mph winds and a 912 mb central pressure shortly before landfall, drove a storm surge of 26 feet (8 meters) onto the coast. The storm stalled just inland, dumping torrential rains on portions of India already saturated from the landfall of Category 4 Tropical Cyclone 04B just twelve days before. The catastrophe killed 9,658 people and left $2.5 billion in damage (1999 dollars), India's most expensive and fourth deadliest tropical cyclone in the past 100 years. Although Phailin is expected to hit the same province of India that the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone hit, Phailin's landfall location is predicted to fall about 100 miles farther to the south, in a region where the coast is not as low-lying. This should keep the death toll due to storm surge much lower compared to the 1999 Odisha Cyclone, where more than 70% of the deaths occurred due to the storm surge. The latest storm surge forecast from IMD (Figure 2) predicts a peak surge under 3', but this is much too low, considering Phailin's recent round of rapid intensification. Phailin's heavy rains will be capable of causing great destruction, as did the rains from the 1999 Odisha cyclone. More than 2,000 of the deaths from that storm occurred due to fresh water flooding in the town of Padmapur, located more than 150 miles from the coast. Deforestation was cited as a contributing cause to these destructive floods that killed 36% of the town's population.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a detailed post on India's tropical cyclone history.

References
Nicholls, R.J.N., N. Mimura, J.C. Topping, 1995, "Climate change in south and south-east Asia: some implications for coastal areas," J Glob Environ Eng 1995;1:137–54.



98L in the Eastern Atlantic more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 98L) located about 400 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is headed west to west-northwest at about 10 mph. Satellite loops show that 98L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms with a substantial amount of spin. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear today, but the shear is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, Friday - Monday, making Thursday the most likely day for development. The UKMET model develops the disturbance into a tropical depression this week, but the European and GFS models do not. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 50%, and 5-day odds of 50%. 98L's projected west-northwest track is expected take it several hundred miles northeast of the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands by the middle of next week, according to the 00Z Thursday morning runs of the GFS and European models.

Typhoon Nari headed towards the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, Category 1 Typhoon Nari is expected to intensify into a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds and make landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines near 12 UTC Friday. Nari will then make a second landfall in Vietnam around 00 UTC on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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02B/MH/P/C5
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54630
Invest 98L will likely be a TD tomorrow..
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Visible satellite presentation of Phailin is absolutely stunning but scary at the same time.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting 617. hurricanes2018:
invest 98L will be the next hurricane sandy.


I doubt that - it could be the next Hurricane Lorenzo though.

(Sarcasm: on)
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Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.

The following group of articles is from a special energy section published by the New York Times on October 9th.

* Oil Shocks Ahead? Probably Not

India Increases Effort to Harness Biomass Energy

Nuclear Plants Vexed at Prices That Shift as Demand Does

Sports Beginning to See the Energy-Efficient Light


Off Scottish Coast, Harnessing Motion of Ocean Waves

In a Hot, Thirsty Energy Business, Water Is Prized

*** Unplugging Bottlenecks in Oil and Gas Deliveries
_________________________________________________

New Jersey Reconsiders Carbon Trading a Year After Sandy

Montana Towns Struggle With Oil Boom Cost as Dollars Flee

One of World's Biggest Clean Energy Finance Shops Is Back in Business

Google Earth Saves Kenya's Maasai Mara Elephants With Drones

Countdown to a Hotter Climate %u2013 Tropics First


Meerkats 'pay rent' to dominant female to stay in group

*** Fears for science amid US shutdown


* Carbyne could be strongest material yet

UK spins off target on carbon cuts

*** Water Discovered in Remnants of Extrasolar Rocky World Orbiting White Dwarf


Iron in Earth's Core Weakens Before Melting


* Complex Relationship Between Phosphorus Levels, Nitrogen Removal in Lakes

How Microbes Survive in Freezing Conditions

!!! As Sea Level Rises, Everglades' Freshwater Plants Perish

Ethanol Not a Major Factor in Reducing Gas Prices

Pulp and Paper Manufacture: Pulp Friction Cleans Up 'Brockovich' Chemical

Massive Spruce Beetle Outbreak in Colorado Tied to Drought

Wind Energy and Radar as Partners


*** 'Stadium Waves' Could Explain Lull in Global Warming

*** The Tundra: A Dark Horse in Planet Earth's Greenhouse Gas Budget

* Discovery Should Save Wheat Farmers Millions of Dollars

* Ontario abandons plan for new nuclear plants

Despite Climate Concern, Global Study Finds Fewer Carbon Capture Projects

O.E.C.D. Head Calls for Global Effort Against Climate Change

*** Scientists threatened by demands to share data

* When wildfire smoke clears, big money changes hands

Jupiter moons perform shadow dance this week -- a triple solar eclipse

*** 'It's heartbreaking': Shutdown could ruin years of Antarctic research

Dancing atoms in glass revealed for first time

* In remote field, North Dakota oil boom suffers first big spill

Water in China: desperate measures

!!! Obituary
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invest 98L will be the next hurricane sandy.
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I see the models still haven't made up their collective mind on 98L. (Not that, that seems to matter in the year 2013).

And Phailin is looking 'good', which is bad for wherever it makes landfall.

Have I missed anything since I went to work and got back home?
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RGB

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614. SLU
A most fearful hurricane:

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modeles moving west here!!
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I've never seen a cyclone so intense keep its spiral banding. Usually they trade it in for a monstrous central dense overcast.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32338
Landfall intensity is expected to be between 115-145 knots. Hard to tell exactly.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32338
That's an impressive/ominous looking system.

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Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15744

massive storm about to inundate India
can't keep my eyes open...night all
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Quoting 600. beell:


we call it "scratch" toast around here. scratch off the black stuff and give it back to the complainer.


*LMAO* I'm sorry.....we did that at my house years back....still laughing!!

Lindy
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dang...

nasty and huge.
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Yeah, that's about the best looking tc of the year..
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Typhoon 02B Cyclone PHAILIN

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 OCT 2013 Time : 010000 UTC
Lat : 15:49:06 N Lon : 88:42:42 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 924.5mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : 1.0C Cloud Region Temp : -77.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 87km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Name : MET7
Satellite Viewing Angle : 40.7 degrees


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Quoting 601. Bluestorm5:
Majority of models are recurving this storm?
AHHA dont listen to wishcaster scott. He called karen to be a intense hurricane, Cat 2. And it was an absolute horrible system lol, he has been wrong so many times. and 98L wont be anything and he is wishcasting again
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Phailin

MTSAT Imagery - 30 Minutes

Night IR to Day Viz Loop


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Quoting 598. StormTrackerScott:
Here comes 98L and it's not going out to sea.

Majority of models are recurving this storm?
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600. beell
Quoting 596. GatorWX:


So 98 is toast, but not burnt toast?



we call it "scratch" toast around here. scratch off the black stuff and give it back to the complainer.
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What makes you think it won't?
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Here comes 98L and it's not going out to sea.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3468
The core has degraded over the past few hours -- maybe the start of an EWRC?

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32338
Quoting 594. beell:
A 98L re-post from this morning. The CIMSS graphics are hot-linked and have updated through 00Z. Still seems valid.


SW shear over and near 98L at left center of frame


Dry mid level air headed towards 98L on SW winds. Moderately strong easterly jet to the N of 98L does not help either.


98L still trying to lose its E/W elongated circulation


?


So 98 is toast, but not burnt toast?

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595. beell
personally, i like toast.
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594. beell
A 98L re-post from this morning. The CIMSS graphics are hot-linked and have updated through 00Z. Still seems valid.


SW shear over and near 98L at left center of frame


Dry mid level air headed towards 98L on SW winds. Moderately strong easterly jet to the N of 98L does not help either.


98L still trying to lose its E/W elongated circulation


?
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Quoting 583. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Can't imagine why it would be. SAB gave it "too weak to classify" at 18z and it has changed little in organization since then. It probably won't ever be designated as a tropical cyclone; high shear lies ahead.


At least it has been a fighter dealing with the adverse conditions in the Eastern Atlantic but I agree that the hours are ticking towards the strong upper winds to complete it's demise.
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That's pretty nasty looking!

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591. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM PHAILIN (BOB04-2013)
2:30 AM IST October 11 2013
======================================

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Over East central Bay of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Coast

At 21:00 PM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Phailin over east central Bay of Bengal moved westwards slightly intensified further and now lays near 15.5N 89.0E, about 590 km south southeast of Paradip, 600 km southeast of Gopalpur, and 600 km east southeast of Kalingapatnam.

It would move northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast between Kalingapatnam
and Paradip, close to Gopalpur (Odisha) by Friday/Saturday as a very severe cyclonic storm with sustained winds of 110-115 knots.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 100 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center.

Storm Surge Guidance:

Storm surge with height of around 2.0-2.5 meters above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts of Odisha and Srikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh during landfall.
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590. whitewabit (Mod)
looks like Phailin has started the EWRC ..

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 364 Comments: 31611
One can hope for a ewrc...

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Whipa

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Have the dooms day prophecies already begun?.
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Quoting 582. Ryan1000:

That is one wicked storm. I'd be surprised if it's not a cat 5 by later today.


so, will it be the worst natural disaster since the 2011 Japan Tsunami? i think so
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Nari

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Quoting 580. Tropicsweatherpr:
Let's see if 98L is renumbered or not.

Can't imagine why it would be. SAB gave it "too weak to classify" at 18z and it has changed little in organization since then. It probably won't ever be designated as a tropical cyclone; high shear lies ahead.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32338
Quoting 581. CybrTeddy:
Sunrise over a monster.

That is one wicked storm. I'd be surprised if it's not a cat 5 by later today.
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Sunrise over a monster.
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Let's see if 98L is renumbered or not.
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AL, 98, 2013101100, , BEST, 0, 112N, 336W, 25, 1008, DB
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting 574. whitewabit:


Does anyone know what the population is along the coast line that will take the brunt of Phailin ??

There are 41 million people living in the state of Odisha, although most of them live north of where Phailin is expected to hit. Brahmapur, which may get the eyewall of the storm, has about 355,000 people alone.
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Quoting 574. whitewabit:


Does anyone know what the population is along the coast line that will take the brunt of Phailin ??


Crowded area ...

According to the 2011 census of India, the total population of Odisha is 41,947,358, of which 21,201,678 (50.54%) are male and 20,745,680 (49.46%) are female, or 978 females per 1000 males. This represents a 13.97% increase over the population in 2001. The population density is 269 per km2.

Cyclone Phailin intensifies, high alert for Andhra Pradesh, Odisha

Edited by Surabhi Malik (With inputs from PTI) | Updated: October 10, 2013 14:37 IST
Ads by Google

Cyclone Phailin expected to hit coasts of Andhra Pradesh, Odisha with winds raging at 175-185 kms per hour. Heavy rainfall likely in many areas of Odisha during the next 24 hours. (AFP)
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00z Best Track for Wipha up to 40kts.


25W WIPHA 131011 0000 13.4N 142.4E WPAC 40 993
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EP, 94, 2013101100, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1035W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 100, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
574. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 570. Tropicsweatherpr:
6.5 Dvorak number for Pahilin.

TPIO10 PGTW 110012
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN)
B. 10/2330Z
C. 15.7N
D. 88.9E
E. ONE/MET7
F. T6.5/7.0/D2.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS AN
E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT OF 6.5.
MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/2141Z 14.4N 91.6E MMHS
BERMEA


Does anyone know what the population is along the coast line that will take the brunt of Phailin ??
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 364 Comments: 31611
I know the most attention is to Pahilin but Nari will cause a serious blow to the Phillipenes. 00z Best Track is up to 100kts.

24W NARI 131011 0000 15.7N 124.3E WPAC 100 948
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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