Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Phailin Rapidly Intensifying, Headed Towards India

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:22 PM GMT on October 10, 2013

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Very dangerous Tropical Cyclone Phailin, in the North Indian Ocean's Bay of Bengal, has put on an impressive burst of rapid intensification, going from a tropical storm with 65 mph winds to a formidable Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds in just twelve hours. Satellite estimates of Phailin's strength at 8 am EDT ranged as high as 135 mph. Satellite images show that Phailin, whose name means "a sapphire" in Thai, continues to intensify. The cloud tops of the very intense thunderstorms in the eyewall are expanding and cooling, showing that their updrafts are growing stronger and pushing the clouds higher into the atmosphere. Water temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, and the ocean heat content is very high, 80 - 100 kJ/cm^2--a level often associated with rapid intensification. With wind shear low, Phailin should be able to continue to intensify until an eyewall replacement cycle begins. It is very difficult for a tropical cyclone to maintain an eye diameter less than ten miles across before the inner core grows unstable and the eyewall collapses, with a new, larger-diameter eyewall forming from an outer spiral band. This process typically weakens the top winds of a tropical cyclone by 5 - 15 mph, but spreads hurricane-force winds over a larger area of ocean, resulting a larger storm surge, but less wind damage. With Phailin's eye diameter already down to a tiny 9 miles, an eyewall replacement cycle is likely to occur by Friday morning.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phailin, taken at approximately 07:30 UTC on October 10, 2013. At the time, Phailin had top winds of 75 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Phailin
The models are in tight agreement that Phailin will track northwest into the northeast coast of India, with landfall expected to occur between 06 - 12 UTC on Saturday. The 11 am EDT Thursday forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center predicts that Phailin will peak as a top-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds 12 hours before landfall. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is predicting that Phailin will be a borderline Category 2/Category 3 storm at landfall. The 06Z Thursday run of the HWRF model predicted that Phailin would be a strong Category 3 storm with 130 mph winds at landfall on Saturday.


Figure 2. Storm surge forecast for Tropical Cyclone Phailin, made on October 10, 2013. The peak surge was predicted to be 87 cm (2.9'). This forecast is likely to be a considerable underestimate of the surge, given Phailin's recent rapid intensification. Image credit: IMD.

The Bay of Bengal is notorious for deadly tropical cyclones
There is good reason to be concerned when a major tropical cyclone forms in the Bay of Bengal. Twenty-six of the thirty-five deadliest tropical cyclones in world history have been Bay of Bengal storms. During the past two centuries, 42% of Earth's tropical cyclone-associated deaths have occurred in Bangladesh, and 27% have occurred in India (Nicholls et al., 1995.) Phailin is likely to be the strongest tropical cyclone to affect India in fourteen years, since the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone. That terrible storm hit Northeast India in the Indian state of Odisha (formerly called Orissa) near the city of Bhubaneswar, as a Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds on October 29, 1999. The mighty cyclone, which peaked at Category 5 strength with 160 mph winds and a 912 mb central pressure shortly before landfall, drove a storm surge of 26 feet (8 meters) onto the coast. The storm stalled just inland, dumping torrential rains on portions of India already saturated from the landfall of Category 4 Tropical Cyclone 04B just twelve days before. The catastrophe killed 9,658 people and left $2.5 billion in damage (1999 dollars), India's most expensive and fourth deadliest tropical cyclone in the past 100 years. Although Phailin is expected to hit the same province of India that the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone hit, Phailin's landfall location is predicted to fall about 100 miles farther to the south, in a region where the coast is not as low-lying. This should keep the death toll due to storm surge much lower compared to the 1999 Odisha Cyclone, where more than 70% of the deaths occurred due to the storm surge. The latest storm surge forecast from IMD (Figure 2) predicts a peak surge under 3', but this is much too low, considering Phailin's recent round of rapid intensification. Phailin's heavy rains will be capable of causing great destruction, as did the rains from the 1999 Odisha cyclone. More than 2,000 of the deaths from that storm occurred due to fresh water flooding in the town of Padmapur, located more than 150 miles from the coast. Deforestation was cited as a contributing cause to these destructive floods that killed 36% of the town's population.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a detailed post on India's tropical cyclone history.

References
Nicholls, R.J.N., N. Mimura, J.C. Topping, 1995, "Climate change in south and south-east Asia: some implications for coastal areas," J Glob Environ Eng 1995;1:137–54.



98L in the Eastern Atlantic more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 98L) located about 400 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is headed west to west-northwest at about 10 mph. Satellite loops show that 98L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms with a substantial amount of spin. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear today, but the shear is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, Friday - Monday, making Thursday the most likely day for development. The UKMET model develops the disturbance into a tropical depression this week, but the European and GFS models do not. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 50%, and 5-day odds of 50%. 98L's projected west-northwest track is expected take it several hundred miles northeast of the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands by the middle of next week, according to the 00Z Thursday morning runs of the GFS and European models.

Typhoon Nari headed towards the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, Category 1 Typhoon Nari is expected to intensify into a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds and make landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines near 12 UTC Friday. Nari will then make a second landfall in Vietnam around 00 UTC on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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723. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 722. sunlinepr:


Weather satellite photos through different filters...

Water Vapor

The Black one is the same picture with the shortwave (IR2) filter


what is the reason to use them ?? do they show something different to the trained eye then water vapor or the visible images??

I tend to use the water vapor images a lot
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Quoting 717. JustFlyingThru:


Weather satellite photos through different filters...

Water Vapor

The Black one is the same picture with the shortwave (IR2) filter
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Quoting 715. TropicalAnalystwx13:
One monster -



Two monster, three monster -



Four monst- oh wait
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Quoting 716. HadesGodWyvern:
16.0 88.5/Dvorak T6.0

115 knots from IMD for the 830AM cyclone imagery page.

still waiting for the 530 AM bulletin/advisory.. (the slowpokes) LOL



lol
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Quoting 708. Doppler22:
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">

This was taken on Interstate 83 in Southern Pennsylvania earlier today.


This was supposed to be an I-95 event -____-
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LIVE: Cyclone Phailin turns very severe, Odisha on the edge

Zee Media Bureau/Ajith Vijay Kumar

9.30 am: The IMD has predicted a storm surge with height of around 2.0-2.5 meteres. Low lying areas of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts and Srikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh may get inundated.

Link


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Quoting 710. sunlinepr:



Nari is the one between Phailin and Wipha

Quoting 710. sunlinepr:



Nari is the one between Phailin and Wipha


I know where it is. What do the graphics represent? They just look like big blobs to me. Do they represent tempertures,moisture? Thats what I would like to know. I understand how to read the visible pictures but not the others!
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716. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
16.0 88.5/Dvorak T6.0

115 knots from IMD for the 830AM cyclone imagery page.

still waiting for the 530 AM bulletin/advisory.. (the slowpokes) LOL
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46914
One monster -



Two monster, three monster -

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32830
Model plots for Phailin shows the GFS, NAVGEM, and GFDL.



At 1800 UTC, 10 October 2013, PHAILIN (IO02) was located in the Bay of Bengal basin at 15.6°N and 89.4°E. The current intensity was 125 kt and the center was moving at 7 kt at a bearing of 305 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 929 mb.

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I would copy paste 98L to put it at 16N 58W...

It looks really wet new, just what I need.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6455
Post 640, best comment I've ever seen. Way to show them. +100
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Good evening or morning wherever you are located everyone. I just want to say thank you to guys for expressing your concerns and interest for the nation of India. Phailin is a dangerous storm and is on the level of some of the bad storms we have had in the Atlantic Ocean like Andrew and Katrina. I hope that everyone along the coast has evacuated to higher ground who are at least in the path of this storm and I hope for the best.
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Quoting 706. JustFlyingThru:


Don't understand those graphics. What do they represent? Not trying to be funny, just new to this type of weather picture's.



Nari is the one between Phailin and Wipha

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709. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
Storm Warning
TROPICAL STORM WIPHA (T1326)
12:00 PM JST October 11 2013
======================================

Near Marianas Islands

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Wipha (996 hPa) located at 13.7N 142.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Gale Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center

Dvorak intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 15.6N 139.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
45 HRS: 17.1N 137.5E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
69 HRS: 19.5N 135.1E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NARI (T1325)
12:00 PM JST October 11 2013
======================================

Sea East Of The Philippines

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Nari (970 hPa) located at 15.3N 124.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Storm Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in north quadrant
150 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.0N 119.6E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
45 HRS: 15.8N 116.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
69 HRS: 15.8N 112.5E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46914
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">

This was taken on Interstate 83 in Southern Pennsylvania earlier today.
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Global disaster Alert and Coordination System

Link
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Quoting 696. sunlinepr:
Nari



Don't understand those graphics. What do they represent? Not trying to be funny, just new to this type of weather picture's.
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Quoting 702. Tribucanes:



Larger, my this has a good chance to have a 20-25ft storm surge. What would you ballpark the wind speed at TA13? Looks every bit a cat5 or very close with winds 130-150kts easily.

Right now? I think an intensity of 135 knots (155 mph) is good. It was more impressive earlier...probably had winds over 165 mph then.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32830
"Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea during next 12 hrs."

That 's some sage advice right there.
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Quoting 679. StormTrackerScott:
Actually it's not 98L.


Its the Columbian heat low, which rarely spins up. It also assumes zero fronts across NAM over a 10-day span at the end of October.
I'm finding it hard to believe.
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Quoting 698. TropicalAnalystwx13:
From JTWC's 03z advisory:

"ADDITIONALLY, A SERIES OF
MICROWAVE IMAGES, INCLUDING A 102343Z SSMI/S PASS, SHOWS THE SYSTEM
IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, COMMONLY OBSERVED IN
TROPICAL CYCLONES WITH MINIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 120 KNOTS."

I'd expect slight weakening tonight and tomorrow followed by re-intensification tomorrow night up to landfall. This EWRC means it's going to grow larger in size than it already is; not good at all.



Larger, my this has a good chance to have a 20-25ft storm surge. What would you ballpark the wind speed at TA13? Looks every bit a cat5 or very close with winds 130-150kts easily.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Cyclone Phailin is half the size of India and strengthening quickly as it heads for land

Link



Severe cyclonic storm Phailin is forecast to strike India at about 12:00 GMT on 12 October. Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall will be near 19.0 N, 85.3 E. Phailin is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 175 km/h (109 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.

According to the Saffir-Simpson damage scale the potential property damage and flooding from a storm of Phailin's strength (category 2) at landfall includes: Storm surge generally 1.8-2.4 metres (6-8 feet) above normal. Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down. Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers. Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of the storm center. Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings. There is also the potential for flooding further inland due to heavy rain.
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Quoting 661. StormTrackerScott:
Yikes!


That map would make sense in July/August. Not the end of October.
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'Catastrophic' cyclone heads for landfall in India
Doyle Rice, USA TODAY 2:53 p.m. EDT October 10, 2013
The storm could "erase most houses, crops and infrastructure."
AP India Cyclone Alert


A monstrous and potentially catastrophic cyclone is taking aim on India, with winds estimated at nearly 170 mph. This is equivalent to a Category 5 hurricane.

The storm's name is Phailin.

The "effects to the Indian coast ... in terms of surge will be catastrophic, with the potential to erase most houses, crops and infrastructure," reported WeatherBell meteorologist Ryan Maue on his Twitter account.

The weather models meteorologists use to forecast storms are in tight agreement that Phailin will track northwest into the northeast coast of India, with landfall expected to occur early Saturday, according to meteorologist Jeff Masters of the Weather Underground.

The storm should hit in India's Orissa state, reported the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The state has a population of close to 40 million people, the Odisha government website noted, and has about 700 people per square mile.

Cyclones form in the Indian Ocean, and are the same type of storm as a hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean and a typhoon in the western Pacific. They are all known by the umbrella term "tropical cyclones."

Cyclones that form in the Bay of Bengal — which is the northeastern part of the Indian Ocean — can be among the deadliest natural catastrophes in the world. Twenty-six of the thirty-five deadliest tropical cyclones in world history have been Bay of Bengal storms, according to Masters.

In fact, during the past two centuries, 42% of Earth's deaths from tropical cyclones have occurred in Bangladesh, and 27% have occurred in India, Masters reports.

A single cyclone that hit Bangeldesh in 1970 killed between 300,000 and 500,000 people.

"Phailin" means "sapphire" in the Thai language.
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From JTWC's 03z advisory:

"ADDITIONALLY, A SERIES OF
MICROWAVE IMAGES, INCLUDING A 102343Z SSMI/S PASS, SHOWS THE SYSTEM
IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, COMMONLY OBSERVED IN
TROPICAL CYCLONES WITH MINIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 120 KNOTS."

I'd expect slight weakening tonight and tomorrow followed by re-intensification tomorrow night up to landfall. This EWRC means it's going to grow larger in size than it already is; not good at all.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32830
Quoting 695. JustFlyingThru:


Do the people who live along the India coast line know the power of the storm that will soon wash over them? Its so large it will effect them for many hours. Was there an evacuation ordered?


they are being advised by there local reps and national services

measures are being taken I guess

just trying to maintain order may be even a challenge
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Nari

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Quoting 688. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
02B/MH/P/C5


venting very nice
well dev storm
dry slotted less dense regions noted in nw semi circle of storm


Do the people who live along the India coast line know the power of the storm that will soon wash over them? Its so large it will effect them for many hours. Was there an evacuation ordered?
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Pray for the people in India. This will strike a very densely populated area south of Kolkata, as either a Category 4 or 5. Phailin has the potential to kill thousands of people. Don't forget what happened with Bhola
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693. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #9
TYPHOON SANTI
11:00 AM PhST October 11 2013
================================================= ==

"SANTI" has intensified further as it continues to move towards Aurora-Isabela area

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Santi [NARI] (972 hPa) located at 15.3N 124.0E or 240 km east of Baler, Aurora has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gustiness up to 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 8 knots.

Signal Warnings
===============

Signal Warning #3

Luzon Region
-------------
1. Aurora
2. Isabela
3. Quirino
4. Ifugao
5. Nueva Viscaya
6. Benguet
7. Nueva Ecija

Signal Warning #2

Luzon Region
-------------
1. La Union
2. Pangasinan
3. Ilocos Norte
4. Ilocos Sur
5. Cagayan
6. Apayao
7. Kalinga
8. Abra
9. Mt. Province
10. Tarlac
11. Zambales
12. Bulacan
13. Pampanga
14. Northern Quezon
15. Polilio Island

Signal Warning #1

Luzon Region
---------------
1. Metro Manila
2. Calayan and Babuyan Group of Is.
3. Bataan
4. Rizal
5. Cavite
6. Batangas
7. Laguna
8. Lubang Islands
9. Rest of Quezon
10. Marinduque
11. Camarines Provinces
12. Albay
13. Catanduanes

Additional Information
==========================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 7.5-30.0 mm per hour (Heavy to Intense) within the 500 km diameter of the typhoon.

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under signal #3, #2 and #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under signal #3 and #2 are alerted against storm surges.

Sea travel is risky over the seaboard of Luzon and of eastern Visayas.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46914
Quoting 690. Tribucanes:
My God, Phailin has to be pushing cat5. What a beautiful storm. No ERC either? Will it happen before landfall? Love watching it but I'd really love to see it dissipate. No question this will be the natural disaster of the year.


I think Phailin is starting an EWRC. Not sure if it will have time to complete it before landfall. They always seem to take longer than I think.

Off to bed.
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Quoting 688. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
02B/MH/P/C5


venting very nice
well dev storm
dry slotted less dense regions noted in nw semi circle of storm


Whadda damn image (that is a big storm) - take care KOG
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My God, Phailin has to be pushing cat5. What a beautiful storm. No ERC either? Will it happen before landfall? Love watching it but I'd really love to see it dissipate. No question this will be the natural disaster of the year.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting 687. unknowncomic:
Not only did we miss hurricanes this year in Florida, but now we have unusually great weather for October.
What they call "Chamber of Commerce" weather.


Don't cackle to soon ... hope you are correct but Wilma was rather after your cackle. ;>)
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02B/MH/P/C5


venting very nice
well dev storm
dry slotted less dense regions noted in nw semi circle of storm
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Not only did we miss hurricanes this year in Florida, but now we have unusually great weather for October.
What they call "Chamber of Commerce" weather.
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Quoting 681. JustFlyingThru:
Hey folks! See you complaininng about the troll. You know you can flag his comments and put him on ignore. But not qouteing him or resonding to his comments is the way to too. Ain't done this blogging thing very long but even I know what to do with a troll

The moderators will get him sooner or later. They always do I've seen.


Correct-o-mundo

-take care
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Quoting 679. StormTrackerScott:
Actually it's not 98L.



Looks like a classic west Caribbean origin. Interesting. Doubt it will play out but thanks for posting something fun to look at.
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See couple members thinking 98L will remain a low rider. COC's always been on the southern side of the convection, models keep showing it go OTS, but I don't think they've ever had a great handle on it. Could make the Caribbean but the 30-40kt shear coming over the next two to three days will be hard to overcome. StormTrackerScott how do you see this disturbance handling 72 hrs of very heavy shear coming up? MississippiWX loved your post on the previous page that got plussed by everyone who is here right now. Now that's something we can all agree on.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting 681. JustFlyingThru:
Hey folks! See you complaininng about the troll. You know you can flag his comments and put him on ignore. But not qouteing him or resonding to his comments is the way to too. Ain't done this blogging thing very long but even I know what to do with a troll

The moderators will get him sooner or later. They always do I've seen.


I flagged him...
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Quoting 680. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Kyle, no, I meant in terms of time. 03z is too late for basketball.


Okay Coach Smith.
It's 11 pm... and there are kids still out there playing basketball in 40 degrees night next to my dorm. DEAL WITH IT :P
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Hey folks! See you complaininng about the troll. You know you can flag his comments and put him on ignore. But not qouteing him or resonding to his comments is the way to too. Ain't done this blogging thing very long but even I know what to do with a troll

The moderators will get him sooner or later. They always do I've seen.
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Quoting 676. Bluestorm5:
You fail to realize NBA is starting next week as well as college or high school basketball starting next month... you're just showing off your poor knowledge in sports :P

Kyle, no, I meant in terms of time. 03z is too late for basketball.

Quoting 671. MississippiWx:


It's never too late for basketball.

Okay Coach Smith.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32830
Actually it's not 98L.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 4726
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 4726
Quoting 669. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Kyle, no, it's too late for basketball.
You got to get into the game man!
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Quoting 669. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Kyle, no, it's too late for basketball.
You fail to realize NBA is starting next week as well as college or high school basketball starting next month... you're just showing off your poor knowledge in sports :P
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Thankfully that is in fantasyland time frame.
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Quoting 663. Bluestorm5:


*see 336 HR mark*

Yeah, I'm ignoring this...


Hey it provides some humor atleast.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 4726
Quoting 661. StormTrackerScott:
Yikes!

I would say yikes too. But after this season, I will believe it when I see it. lol
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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