Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Phailin Rapidly Intensifying, Headed Towards India

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:22 PM GMT on October 10, 2013

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Very dangerous Tropical Cyclone Phailin, in the North Indian Ocean's Bay of Bengal, has put on an impressive burst of rapid intensification, going from a tropical storm with 65 mph winds to a formidable Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds in just twelve hours. Satellite estimates of Phailin's strength at 8 am EDT ranged as high as 135 mph. Satellite images show that Phailin, whose name means "a sapphire" in Thai, continues to intensify. The cloud tops of the very intense thunderstorms in the eyewall are expanding and cooling, showing that their updrafts are growing stronger and pushing the clouds higher into the atmosphere. Water temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, and the ocean heat content is very high, 80 - 100 kJ/cm^2--a level often associated with rapid intensification. With wind shear low, Phailin should be able to continue to intensify until an eyewall replacement cycle begins. It is very difficult for a tropical cyclone to maintain an eye diameter less than ten miles across before the inner core grows unstable and the eyewall collapses, with a new, larger-diameter eyewall forming from an outer spiral band. This process typically weakens the top winds of a tropical cyclone by 5 - 15 mph, but spreads hurricane-force winds over a larger area of ocean, resulting a larger storm surge, but less wind damage. With Phailin's eye diameter already down to a tiny 9 miles, an eyewall replacement cycle is likely to occur by Friday morning.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phailin, taken at approximately 07:30 UTC on October 10, 2013. At the time, Phailin had top winds of 75 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Phailin
The models are in tight agreement that Phailin will track northwest into the northeast coast of India, with landfall expected to occur between 06 - 12 UTC on Saturday. The 11 am EDT Thursday forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center predicts that Phailin will peak as a top-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds 12 hours before landfall. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is predicting that Phailin will be a borderline Category 2/Category 3 storm at landfall. The 06Z Thursday run of the HWRF model predicted that Phailin would be a strong Category 3 storm with 130 mph winds at landfall on Saturday.


Figure 2. Storm surge forecast for Tropical Cyclone Phailin, made on October 10, 2013. The peak surge was predicted to be 87 cm (2.9'). This forecast is likely to be a considerable underestimate of the surge, given Phailin's recent rapid intensification. Image credit: IMD.

The Bay of Bengal is notorious for deadly tropical cyclones
There is good reason to be concerned when a major tropical cyclone forms in the Bay of Bengal. Twenty-six of the thirty-five deadliest tropical cyclones in world history have been Bay of Bengal storms. During the past two centuries, 42% of Earth's tropical cyclone-associated deaths have occurred in Bangladesh, and 27% have occurred in India (Nicholls et al., 1995.) Phailin is likely to be the strongest tropical cyclone to affect India in fourteen years, since the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone. That terrible storm hit Northeast India in the Indian state of Odisha (formerly called Orissa) near the city of Bhubaneswar, as a Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds on October 29, 1999. The mighty cyclone, which peaked at Category 5 strength with 160 mph winds and a 912 mb central pressure shortly before landfall, drove a storm surge of 26 feet (8 meters) onto the coast. The storm stalled just inland, dumping torrential rains on portions of India already saturated from the landfall of Category 4 Tropical Cyclone 04B just twelve days before. The catastrophe killed 9,658 people and left $2.5 billion in damage (1999 dollars), India's most expensive and fourth deadliest tropical cyclone in the past 100 years. Although Phailin is expected to hit the same province of India that the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone hit, Phailin's landfall location is predicted to fall about 100 miles farther to the south, in a region where the coast is not as low-lying. This should keep the death toll due to storm surge much lower compared to the 1999 Odisha Cyclone, where more than 70% of the deaths occurred due to the storm surge. The latest storm surge forecast from IMD (Figure 2) predicts a peak surge under 3', but this is much too low, considering Phailin's recent round of rapid intensification. Phailin's heavy rains will be capable of causing great destruction, as did the rains from the 1999 Odisha cyclone. More than 2,000 of the deaths from that storm occurred due to fresh water flooding in the town of Padmapur, located more than 150 miles from the coast. Deforestation was cited as a contributing cause to these destructive floods that killed 36% of the town's population.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a detailed post on India's tropical cyclone history.

References
Nicholls, R.J.N., N. Mimura, J.C. Topping, 1995, "Climate change in south and south-east Asia: some implications for coastal areas," J Glob Environ Eng 1995;1:137–54.



98L in the Eastern Atlantic more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 98L) located about 400 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is headed west to west-northwest at about 10 mph. Satellite loops show that 98L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms with a substantial amount of spin. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear today, but the shear is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, Friday - Monday, making Thursday the most likely day for development. The UKMET model develops the disturbance into a tropical depression this week, but the European and GFS models do not. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 50%, and 5-day odds of 50%. 98L's projected west-northwest track is expected take it several hundred miles northeast of the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands by the middle of next week, according to the 00Z Thursday morning runs of the GFS and European models.

Typhoon Nari headed towards the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, Category 1 Typhoon Nari is expected to intensify into a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds and make landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines near 12 UTC Friday. Nari will then make a second landfall in Vietnam around 00 UTC on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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Slightly blurry image. Probably because the BoB is at the edge of MTSAT-2's coverage area.
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Quoting 661. StormTrackerScott:
Yikes!





Yeah, right. In mid-late October. With the northern GoM waters cooled off. Nice sense of humor there, FIM-7.

Even if it gets that far N, westerly shear rips it apart like Karen was.

And....latest 11/00z run backed completely off that fantasy.
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Quoting 769. RGVtropicalWx13:
Guess no one saw the fim model aleast. Hurricane season will be done when it says so.


Right NOW SHEAR says its done!
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Quoting 764. BaltimoreBrian:


Nothing really tapped the loop current this year so it could provide more energy for winter storms to hit Florida and the Deep South. I'm thinking tornado events and gales, not snow and ice kind of storms.



Powerful Cold fronts can do that anyways, but ya I guess a little warmer water in the Gulf could provide more instability and cause those nasty Winter Tornado's across Florida. Most don't realize that in Florida the worst weather for Tornado's is during the Winter.
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Guess no one saw the fim model aleast. Hurricane season will be done when it says so.
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EP, 94, 2013101106, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1042W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 100, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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I miss the snows of 2009-2010. 80" in Baltimore. Fun times!
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Bck for a quick update .. wind has picked up speed . Armed forces are moving vehcile and troops for relief ops. Oh and they upgraded it to a super cyclone .
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The hurricane season isn't done by a long shot. Models show development still. Come back on Dec 1 then it'll be over then.
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Quoting 761. TampaSpin:



That's a good question.....not really sure it has much bearing except up the EAST Coast.


Nothing really tapped the loop current this year so it could provide more energy for winter storms to hit Florida and the Deep South. I'm thinking tornado events and gales, not snow and ice kind of storms.
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Quoting 759. BaltimoreBrian:


Do you think the energy tropical systems didn't use this year in the tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico will make stronger winter storms this year?


I am not a believer that only the Atlantic would affect much. Look how active the Pacific and other areas have been. It seems the Artic is running much colder already than usual. Might see a large Snow event and a stronger Nor-Easter because of Warmer than usual Temps up the East Coast.
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762. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NARI (T1325)
15:00 PM JST October 11 2013
======================================

Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Nari (965 hPa) located at 15.3N 123.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 9 knots.

Storm Force Winds
================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in north quadrant
150 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 15.7N 118.5E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
48 HRS: 15.3N 114.2E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
72 HRS: 15.9N 111.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44778
Quoting 759. BaltimoreBrian:


Do you think the energy tropical systems didn't use this year in the tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico will make stronger winter storms this year?



That's a good question.....not really sure it has much bearing except up the EAST Coast.
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AL, 98, 2013101106, , BEST, 0, 113N, 347W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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Quoting 757. TampaSpin:
Looks like the Tropical Atlantic is DONE! High Shear has taken over near the entire Basin!


Do you think the energy tropical systems didn't use this year in the tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico will make stronger winter storms this year?
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7.4 910.2 152.0 6.5 6.0 6.0 NO LIMIT ON FLG -21.76 -72.20 EYE 11 IR 40.0 15.95 -88.48 COMBO MET7 40.5
2013OCT11 050000 7.3 913.2 149.0 6.3 5.9 5.9 NO LIMIT ON FLG -27.46 -71.52 EYE 10 IR 40.0 15.98 -88.42 SPRL MET7 40.5
2013OCT11 053000 7.1 919.2 143.0 6.1 6.0 6.0 NO LIMIT ON FLG -31.76 -73.53 EYE -99 IR 40.0 16.01 -88.36 SPRL MET7 40.4
2013OCT11 060000 7.1 919.1 143.0 6.1 6.1 6.1

so the pressure went up by 10mb over the last 2 hours but now seems to have evened out. Nobody seems to be on here tho
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Looks like the Tropical Atlantic is DONE! High Shear has taken over near the entire Basin!
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Oops meant post 733 say
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713: unfortunately it won't do that
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so the eyewall is disappearing, but the storm now occupies nearly all of the Bay of Bengal
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751. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting 748. g564841:
Oh thnx for the update . 205/15 is pretty high right . The previous super cyclone here, wind speed was 300kmph.
Thanks, i'll stay indoors , have bought essentials . Its just a lot of wind here right now . Bright sunny and windy . Most people aren't serious about it . Deceptive weather huh! I'll be following this blog , its amazing . I did like geography very much in Middle school .


ya, about a high category 3 hurricane strength.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44778
Quoting 746. KoritheMan:

I never really thought diurnal cycles affected cyclones this intense. I mean, I know it does, because physical processes demand it, but the net result seems to be minimal.
really don't know myself just a guess on my part not to familiar with systems in the BOB just going on past sat. recognition
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
98L:

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. HOWEVER...SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BEFORE UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS BECOME EVEN LESS CONDUCIVE THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
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Oh thnx for the update . 205/15 is pretty high right . The previous super cyclone here, wind speed was 300kmph.
Thanks, i'll stay indoors , have bought essentials . Its just a lot of wind here right now . Bright sunny and windy . Most people aren't serious about it . Deceptive weather huh! I'll be following this blog , its amazing . I did like geography very much in Middle school .
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94E:

DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
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Quoting 743. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it also got the day effect to deal with maybe after sunset once it gets dark it will take off again we watch
I never really thought diurnal cycles affected cyclones this intense. I mean, I know it does, because physical processes demand it, but the net result seems to be minimal.
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745. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
later, Kori
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Out for now. Interested to see what Phailin does after the culmination of this cycle.

Stay safe, all in the path.
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Quoting 742. KoritheMan:

Who knows. Predicting the timing and duration of these cycles is pretty difficult.

The small radius of maximum winds argues for a relatively brief one, though.

We'll see.
it also got the day effect to deal with maybe after sunset once it gets dark it will take off again we watch
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Quoting 740. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
maybe it won't get there by the time the cycle up is done it will be closer to land to help disrupt it maybe
Who knows. Predicting the timing and duration of these cycles is pretty difficult.

The small radius of maximum winds argues for a relatively brief one, though.

We'll see.
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741. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting 738. g564841:
Hi guys . Its very interesting to read your comments . You guys know so much . Now I'm from state the cyclone phailin is gonna hit . They say its gonna make landafall by sat night at 175 kmph . Can you guys give an actual update . How severe its gonna be , is it gonna hit early? Maybe explain in layman language , I can't follow the technical language ,8E,98L .. what are those ? Latitude longitude positioning ?
Thanks ,I'll be grateful :-)
P.s - so most of you are storm chasers / followers ? That's sorta cool! Sugoi! xD


that has changed a long time ago from IMD.. it's now forecast for 205-215 km/h landfall.
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Quoting 735. KoritheMan:
EWRC ongoing. Not necessarily a good thing if the storm just increases in size afterward.

But don't listen to me. I'm never particularly positive, heh.
maybe it won't get there by the time the cycle up is done it will be closer to land to help disrupt it maybe
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Quoting 738. g564841:
Hi guys . Its very interesting to read your comments . You guys know so much . Now I'm from state the cyclone phailin is gonna hit . They say its gonna make landafall by sat night at 175 kmph . Can you guys give an actual update . How severe its gonna be , is it gonna hit early? Maybe explain in layman language , I can't follow the technical language ,8E,98L .. what are those ? Latitude longitude positioning ?
Thanks ,I'll be grateful :-)
P.s - so most of you are storm chasers / followers ? That's sorta cool! Sugoi! xD
I might provide a detailed forecast on Phailin within the next few hours, and if I do, I'll post it here.

I really haven't watched this storm as carefully as I could have, though. I don't want to give an answer that isn't particularly well-researched.

Hope you stay safe out there, though. For sure.
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Hi guys . Its very interesting to read your comments . You guys know so much . Now I'm from state the cyclone phailin is gonna hit . They say its gonna make landafall by sat night at 175 kmph . Can you guys give an actual update . How severe its gonna be , is it gonna hit early? Maybe explain in layman language , I can't follow the technical language ,8E,98L .. what are those ? Latitude longitude positioning ?
Thanks ,I'll be grateful :-)
P.s - so most of you are storm chasers / followers ? That's sorta cool! Sugoi! xD
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737. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting 732. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


convective energy deteriorating on the ne quad now as per jsl

weakening flag flag


2013OCT11 043000 6.8 904.4 +0.0 134.8 6.1 5.7 4.6 0.7T/6hr ON FLG -74.66 -70.80 UNIFRM N/A 43.5 16.17 -87.67

the raw Dvorak number is showing this disruption.
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02B/MH/P/C4
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Quoting 732. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


convective energy deteriorating on the ne quad now as per jsl

weakening flag flag
EWRC ongoing. Not necessarily a good thing if the storm just increases in size afterward.

But don't listen to me. I'm never particularly positive, heh.
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2013OCT11 050000 7.3 913.2 149.0 6.3 5.9 5.9 NO LIMIT
tis happening
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Quoting 732. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


convective energy deteriorating on the ne quad now as per jsl

weakening flag flag



Good for them.... lets spare some Atl conditions to that area so that it dissipates....
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convective energy deteriorating on the ne quad now as per jsl

weakening flag flag
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
731. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM PHAILIN (BOB04-2013)
5:30 AM IST October 11 2013
======================================

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Over East Central Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Coast

At 0:00 AM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Phailin over east central Bay of Bengal moved west northwestwards at 8 knots and now lays center near 16.0N 88.5E, about about 520 km south southeast of Paradip, 530 km southeast of Gopalpur, and 530km east southeast of Kalingapatnam.

It would move northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast between Kalingapatnam and
Paradip, close to Gopalpur (Odisha) by Friday/Saturday as a very severe cyclonic storm with sustained winds of 110-115 knots.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T5.5. Intense to very intense convection is seen over east central bay and adjoining north Andaman Sea islands and area between lat 14.0N to 17.0N and long 86.0E to 90.0E. The associated convection has increased gradually with respect to height and organization during past 3 hours. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -86C The system is eye pattern. Eye is circular with diameter of about 15 km. Eye temp -6C

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 100 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center of the system. Phailin central pressure is 955 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 17.0N 86.9E - 110-115 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 17.9N 85.8E - 110-115 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 20.2N 84.5E - 40-45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS: 22.2N 83.8E - 25 knots (Depression)

Storm Surge Guidance:

Storm surge with height of around 2.5-3.0 meters above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts of Odisha and Srikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh during landfall.

The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 20N and is providing poleward out flow. Phailin is tracking along the southern periphery of the sub-tropical ridge lying in the northeast sector. The upper level divergence is favorable for intensification. The low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity has increased during past 6 hours.. The sea surface temperature is about 28-29C and ocean thermal energy is about 80-100 kj/cm2. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind has decreased and is about 5-10 knots (low). The madden jullian oscillation (mjo) index is in phase 6 with amplitude greater than 1. Numerical weather prediction models suggest that madden jullian oscillation would move to phase 7 during next 3 days
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Quoting 727. nwobilderburg:

so is there an ERC going on


It appears.
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Well time for these old bones to be in bed. We'll see how Phailin is in the AM.

Remember to smile, makes people wonder what you are up to!
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Quoting 723. whitewabit:


what is the reason to use them ?? do they show something different to the trained then water vapor or the visible images?


Filters allow you to see different details...

Link

An example is that a Visible filter will show you no image at night while IR filters do...

WV filters usually show ULLs well...

Look for Image Enhancement Information on the Internet for further investigation....
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Quoting 726. Civicane49:

so is there an ERC going on
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724. whitewabit (Mod)
the first rain ban from Phailin has reached the coast now ..
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723. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 722. sunlinepr:


Weather satellite photos through different filters...

Water Vapor

The Black one is the same picture with the shortwave (IR2) filter


what is the reason to use them ?? do they show something different to the trained eye then water vapor or the visible images??

I tend to use the water vapor images a lot
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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