Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Phailin Rapidly Intensifying, Headed Towards India

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:22 PM GMT on October 10, 2013

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Very dangerous Tropical Cyclone Phailin, in the North Indian Ocean's Bay of Bengal, has put on an impressive burst of rapid intensification, going from a tropical storm with 65 mph winds to a formidable Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds in just twelve hours. Satellite estimates of Phailin's strength at 8 am EDT ranged as high as 135 mph. Satellite images show that Phailin, whose name means "a sapphire" in Thai, continues to intensify. The cloud tops of the very intense thunderstorms in the eyewall are expanding and cooling, showing that their updrafts are growing stronger and pushing the clouds higher into the atmosphere. Water temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, and the ocean heat content is very high, 80 - 100 kJ/cm^2--a level often associated with rapid intensification. With wind shear low, Phailin should be able to continue to intensify until an eyewall replacement cycle begins. It is very difficult for a tropical cyclone to maintain an eye diameter less than ten miles across before the inner core grows unstable and the eyewall collapses, with a new, larger-diameter eyewall forming from an outer spiral band. This process typically weakens the top winds of a tropical cyclone by 5 - 15 mph, but spreads hurricane-force winds over a larger area of ocean, resulting a larger storm surge, but less wind damage. With Phailin's eye diameter already down to a tiny 9 miles, an eyewall replacement cycle is likely to occur by Friday morning.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phailin, taken at approximately 07:30 UTC on October 10, 2013. At the time, Phailin had top winds of 75 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Phailin
The models are in tight agreement that Phailin will track northwest into the northeast coast of India, with landfall expected to occur between 06 - 12 UTC on Saturday. The 11 am EDT Thursday forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center predicts that Phailin will peak as a top-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds 12 hours before landfall. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is predicting that Phailin will be a borderline Category 2/Category 3 storm at landfall. The 06Z Thursday run of the HWRF model predicted that Phailin would be a strong Category 3 storm with 130 mph winds at landfall on Saturday.


Figure 2. Storm surge forecast for Tropical Cyclone Phailin, made on October 10, 2013. The peak surge was predicted to be 87 cm (2.9'). This forecast is likely to be a considerable underestimate of the surge, given Phailin's recent rapid intensification. Image credit: IMD.

The Bay of Bengal is notorious for deadly tropical cyclones
There is good reason to be concerned when a major tropical cyclone forms in the Bay of Bengal. Twenty-six of the thirty-five deadliest tropical cyclones in world history have been Bay of Bengal storms. During the past two centuries, 42% of Earth's tropical cyclone-associated deaths have occurred in Bangladesh, and 27% have occurred in India (Nicholls et al., 1995.) Phailin is likely to be the strongest tropical cyclone to affect India in fourteen years, since the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone. That terrible storm hit Northeast India in the Indian state of Odisha (formerly called Orissa) near the city of Bhubaneswar, as a Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds on October 29, 1999. The mighty cyclone, which peaked at Category 5 strength with 160 mph winds and a 912 mb central pressure shortly before landfall, drove a storm surge of 26 feet (8 meters) onto the coast. The storm stalled just inland, dumping torrential rains on portions of India already saturated from the landfall of Category 4 Tropical Cyclone 04B just twelve days before. The catastrophe killed 9,658 people and left $2.5 billion in damage (1999 dollars), India's most expensive and fourth deadliest tropical cyclone in the past 100 years. Although Phailin is expected to hit the same province of India that the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone hit, Phailin's landfall location is predicted to fall about 100 miles farther to the south, in a region where the coast is not as low-lying. This should keep the death toll due to storm surge much lower compared to the 1999 Odisha Cyclone, where more than 70% of the deaths occurred due to the storm surge. The latest storm surge forecast from IMD (Figure 2) predicts a peak surge under 3', but this is much too low, considering Phailin's recent round of rapid intensification. Phailin's heavy rains will be capable of causing great destruction, as did the rains from the 1999 Odisha cyclone. More than 2,000 of the deaths from that storm occurred due to fresh water flooding in the town of Padmapur, located more than 150 miles from the coast. Deforestation was cited as a contributing cause to these destructive floods that killed 36% of the town's population.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a detailed post on India's tropical cyclone history.

References
Nicholls, R.J.N., N. Mimura, J.C. Topping, 1995, "Climate change in south and south-east Asia: some implications for coastal areas," J Glob Environ Eng 1995;1:137–54.



98L in the Eastern Atlantic more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 98L) located about 400 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is headed west to west-northwest at about 10 mph. Satellite loops show that 98L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms with a substantial amount of spin. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear today, but the shear is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, Friday - Monday, making Thursday the most likely day for development. The UKMET model develops the disturbance into a tropical depression this week, but the European and GFS models do not. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 50%, and 5-day odds of 50%. 98L's projected west-northwest track is expected take it several hundred miles northeast of the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands by the middle of next week, according to the 00Z Thursday morning runs of the GFS and European models.

Typhoon Nari headed towards the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, Category 1 Typhoon Nari is expected to intensify into a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds and make landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines near 12 UTC Friday. Nari will then make a second landfall in Vietnam around 00 UTC on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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Saved image from live webcam Palermo in northern Sicily, where once again a massive MCS (Mesocyclone convecitve system) is developing (we saw it many times this year).

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Quoting 816. Envoirment:


Actually, it was as recently as last December when Typhoon Bopha hit the Phillipines.



Pretty strong for a typhoon that formed extremely close to the equator.
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Live: Cyclone Phailin set to lash Odisha-Andhra coast; officials fear 'extreme damage', flooding
HindustanTimes, HT Correspondents and Agencies, Hindustan Times Bhubaneswar, October 11, 2013

BTW: First decent snowfall in the European Alps (live webcam picture):



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820. IKE
From Birmingham,AL discussion....

THE NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE ON THE HORIZON WILL BE DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING TO
HINT AT A FAIRLY POTENT TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN STATES BY TUESDAY...THEN POSSIBLY EJECTING EASTWARD
TOWARD THE GREAT PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH...WITH
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA.
SEVERAL TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST...BUT I AM CURRENTLY
LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WHICH IS
WHAT THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING...AND GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
TREND TOWARDS A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. DUE
TO THE LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE BEING ADVERTISED...HAVE RAISED TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOR
NOW...HAVE OPTED TO REMAIN WITH CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE.
IF GUIDANCE VERIFIES...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A CHANGE TO COOLER
WEATHER ONCE AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

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First visible
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818. IKE
Looking at the 6Z GFS.....I don't see anything in the ATL(season over?). 00Z ECMWF is about the same. Looks like colder in the east in 7-10 days.
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watching 98. further west it comes
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Quoting 809. KoritheMan:


Super Typhoon Megi in 2010 was the most recent Category 5 landfall, I think. Made mincement out of Luzon:



Actually, it was as recently as last December when Typhoon Bopha hit the Phillipines.



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815. IKE
11-2-0 in the ATL, plus one TD...season, so far.

Day 133 of the season.
50 days to go.

Ground fog and 64.2 at my location. TGIF!!!!!!

And the ATL looks dead for the next week.
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There's a chance for a few tornadoes today in extreme NE South Dakota, SE North Dakota, and Western Minnesota, but the main threat today will likely be damaging winds.

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813. VR46L
The big wheel keeps on turning over on the Wpac

Wipha

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Quoting 804. LargoFl:
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
548 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

PAC001-071-133-112000-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FA.W.0013.000000T0000Z-131011T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ADAMS PA-LANCASTER PA-YORK PA-
548 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN...
ADAMS COUNTY...
LANCASTER COUNTY...
YORK COUNTY...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...

* AT 545 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MORE RAIN
FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL FLOODING
OF SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS IS LIKELY TODAY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE THE CONEWAGO
CREEK AND CODORUS CREEK WATERSHEDS INCLUDING THE CITY OF YORK. IN
LANCASTER COUNTY SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS LIKELY WITH URBAN
FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF LANCASTER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. MOST FLOODING DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. TURN AROUND DONT
DROWN!

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE
COLLEGE THROUGH TWITTER OR FACEBOOK.

&&

LAT...LON 3995 7747 3999 7740 4003 7719 4015 7703
4016 7691 4020 7693 4022 7690 4022 7684
4018 7676 4012 7672 4019 7660 4025 7630
4031 7615 4014 7587 4011 7594 4004 7594
3992 7600 3987 7599 3973 7610 3972 7746

$$

FORECASTER: CR

Thats me :p I looked at a stream down the street.... not so little anymore
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Good morning everybody!

Phailin:
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OFFICIAL: Record daily rainfall set at Harrisburg (KMDT) yesterday 10/10/13: 4.02 inches. Previous record was 1.50" set back in 1894.
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Quoting 799. ackee:
This is my first post on a storm outside the Atlantic Phailin has certainly caught my attention I think this could be a huge world Disaster for months when was last time a cat 5 hit land ? also what the highest wind speed that a hurricane has ever made land form with ? Thanks in advance for a respond any one


Super Typhoon Megi in 2010 was the most recent Category 5 landfall, I think. Made mincement out of Luzon:

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808. MPI88


Experimental surge forecast, a 1.4m surge corresponds to a "normal" Cat two on a mildly sloping coast. I won't be surprised to see a surge of well above 3 meter.

- Its the cat ~24 hour prior to landfall that counts.
- Shallow coast.
- Its a huge radius storm.

Historic Events:
1990 Andhra (200 km South) - Cat 4 - 5 meter
1999 Orissa (400 km North)- Cat 5 - 9 meter


Whats the rainfall rate of this storm compared to other Bay of Bengal storms?
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Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. Things are lining up. Not sure what they're lining up for... It's 57 degrees, 57 degrees wind chill, 57 degrees dew point, 97% humidity and an expected high of 87 later on.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: cheesy grits and shrimp, Crawfish Breakfast Enchiladas with and without cheese, spinach, lean ham and cheese egg white omelet, Whole Wheat Greek Yogurt Pancakes with fruit sauce, Breakfast Grain Salad with Blueberries, Hazelnuts & Lemon, creamy oatmeal with blueberries, Apple pie bites (apple slice wrapped in a croissant), cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Creole, regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
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806. VR46L
Good Morning Folks !!!

I take it the MJO effect is here

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Quoting barbamz:
Nari approaching the Philippines with sunset.
Saved image:




Eye spy and Eye.
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Nari approaching the Philippines with sunset.
Saved image:
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Tens of thousands flee as cyclone "half the size of India" threatens east coast

BHUBANESWAR, India | Fri Oct 11, 2013 4:13am EDT

(Reuters) - India's east coast braced on Friday for a cyclone covering half the size of the country, with tens of thousands of residents in low-lying areas fleeing their homes after authorities forecast a risk to life and extensive damage once the storm hits land.

Satellite images showed Cyclone Phailin 600 km (360 miles) off the coast in the Bay of Bengal and likely to make landfall on Saturday evening. Some forecasters likened its size and intensity to that of hurricane Katrina, which devastated the U.S. Gulf coast and New Orleans in 2005.

The Indian Meteorological Department described Phailin as a "very severe cyclonic storm" with wind speeds of 210-220 km per hour (130-135 mph) and said it would hit between Kalingapatnam and the major port of Paradip in Odisha state. The U.S. Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center predicted gusts of up to 305 kph.

"We plan to evacuate about 100,000 families in Ganjam district by tomorrow morning," Odisha state's Special Relief Commissioner, Pradeep Kumar Mohapatra, told Reuters. ...
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
799. ackee
This is my first post on a storm outside the Atlantic Phailin has certainly caught my attention I think this could be a huge world Disaster for months when was last time a cat 5 hit land ? also what the highest wind speed that a hurricane has ever made land form with ? Thanks in advance for a respond any one
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Good morning with the rgb-loob of Monster-Phailin.

And here the TPW:
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Looks like Phailin could remain south of that cold eddy near 17N 87E.

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11/0830 UTC 16.4N 88.1E T6.5/7.0 PHAILIN -- Bay of Bengal
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The India Meteorological Department is, not surprisingly, holding a press conference later today.

Link
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It unfortunately does not take a lot to kill a ton of people in this part of the world. In that regard, I am not at all surprised by the likelihood of calamity unfolding.

Still doesn't make it suck any less, though. And that's putting it mildly. :/
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Worse than the tidal wave that killed well over 100 thousand? Didn't want to be the first to say it, but I certainly thought it. This is history in the making no doubt. Have had a few six figure fatality storms in the past in this same exact area. Surreal.
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Quoting 789. Tribucanes:
My God Plaza, this could kill tens of thousands easily. This is now forecast to make landfall as a top end cat4 if not stronger.

Sometimes its not good to write things about what looks like a certainty.
We were watching this last night here and thinking that this could be one of the worst case scenarios in recorded weather event history.
The effects could maybe be worse than the tidal wave in the same area a few years ago.
This cyclone is striping energy from the whole of the bay and there's plenty of it to convert into misery.
I don't like to say it but the next 24 hours is going to be tragic.
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Phailin is forecast to strengthen still, we could be looking at a sub 900mb storm with winds approaching 200mph, just unreal.
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My God Plaza, this could kill tens of thousands easily. This is now forecast to make landfall as a top end cat4 if not stronger.
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Mass evacuations are ongoing along the coast as Phailin is now a cat5.
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Quoting 784. Tribucanes:
Phailin looks like it's going to take off again, my God this is going to be a 155-170kt storm possibly at landfall. With winds like that and the size of this beast this could rival Katrina for surge. This could be one of the worst land falling storms in history.

Its not just the winds and surge that will be the problem here.
Huge amounts of people live on or very close to rivers and cling to the coast for the fishing trade.
There is in most cases nowhere to go, a bit like being on a flat pacific island when the water rises everything will either be submerged or drift away. Add to this winds in excess of 100MPH and the chances of survival diminish rapidly.
Beyond the immediate cyclone effects are the accumulated waters on land which will sweep the river banks like a pressure washer.
There are probably countless millions of people around the coasts of the bay and even communications are thin on the ground in most places.
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Meh. Think I'll just write a blog on Phailin tomorrow after work. Plus I'll get to cover its landfall too, which is something I've yearned to do for many years with a cyclone as intense as this.
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Phailin is now roughly the size Katrina was. If this heads ever so slightly east this will hit Kolkata and the Ganger Delta of Bangladesh where tens of millions live just above sea level. Highest satellite estimates put this beast at 910.7mb with sustained winds of 175mph at Phailin's peak to this point. This could strengthen to an even stronger storm than that by landfall. India has no HH's, so exacts are not there. This is going to be a disaster of a huge magnitude. Thousands are likely to die. Praying for a miracle.
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Phailin looks like it's going to take off again, my God this is going to be a 155-170kt storm possibly at landfall. With winds like that and the size of this beast this could rival Katrina for surge. This could be one of the worst land falling storms in history.
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Quoting 779. nwobilderburg:


jesus... how many times can one thing be posted


You're new here, and you already got a ban yesterday. I suggest you start reading comments carefully if you want to fit in here.
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782. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting 779. nwobilderburg:


jesus... how many times can one thing be posted


It's every 3 hours with an active warning when a new advisory is "issued"
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46280


yeah... the eyewall didnt dissapear
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Quoting nwobilderburg:


jesus... how many times can one thing be posted


Read carefully... They are all different.

Typhoon Nari coming into view from Tagaytay Radar.



I expect these will gradually increase.


Rainfall intensity as of 10/11/13 03:40 PM
Camarines Sur, Iriga : 2.032 mm/hour
Camiguin, Da Animal Breeding Station : 4.572 mm/hour
Davao del Sur, Bansalan Provincial Nursery : 19.558 mm/hour
Laguna, Kalayaan : 2.032 mm/hour
Lanao del Sur, Brgy Matalin : 3.81 mm/hour
Lanao del Sur, Polo Ditsaan : 8.128 mm/hour
Negros Occidental, Magballo Bridge : 4.064 mm/hour
Quezon, Brgy. Magsaysay : 3.13 mm/hour
Quezon, Brgy. Talisoy : 4.48 mm/hour
Albay, Dost V Compound : 6.35 mm/hour
Albay, Magayon Drive : 5.03 mm/hour
Apayao, Luna : 2.286 mm/hour
Aurora, Dingalan Central School : 3.21 mm/hour
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Quoting 778. HadesGodWyvern:
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM PHAILIN (BOB04-2013)
8:30 AM IST October 11 2013
======================================

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm over East Central Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Coast

At 3:00 AM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Phailin over east central Bay of Bengal remained stationery and lays near 16.0N 88.5E, about 520 km south southeast of Paradip, 530 km southeast of Gopalpur, and 530 km east southeast of Kalingapatnam.

It would move northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast between Kalingapatnam and Paradip, close to Gopalpur (Odisha) by Friday/Saturday as a very severe cyclonic storm with sustained winds of 115-120 knots.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T6.0. Intense to very intense convection is seen over east central bay and adjoining north Andaman Sea islands and area between lat 14.0N to 17.0N and long 87.0E to 90.0E. The associated convection has increased gradually with respect to organization during past 3 hours. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -81C. The system is eye pattern. Eye is circular with diameter of about 15 km. Eye temp -6C

3 minute sustained winds near the center is about 105-110 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal. Phailin central pressure is 940 hPa.

Storm Surge Guidance:

Storm surge with height of around 2.5-3.0 meters above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts of Odisha and Srikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh during landfall


jesus... how many times can one thing be posted
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778. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM PHAILIN (BOB04-2013)
8:30 AM IST October 11 2013
======================================

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm over East Central Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Coast

At 3:00 AM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Phailin over east central Bay of Bengal remained stationery and lays near 16.0N 88.5E, about 520 km south southeast of Paradip, 530 km southeast of Gopalpur, and 530 km east southeast of Kalingapatnam.

It would move northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast between Kalingapatnam and Paradip, close to Gopalpur (Odisha) by Friday/Saturday as a very severe cyclonic storm with sustained winds of 115-120 knots.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T6.0. Intense to very intense convection is seen over east central bay and adjoining north Andaman Sea islands and area between lat 14.0N to 17.0N and long 87.0E to 90.0E. The associated convection has increased gradually with respect to organization during past 3 hours. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -81C. The system is eye pattern. Eye is circular with diameter of about 15 km. Eye temp -6C

3 minute sustained winds near the center is about 105-110 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal. Phailin central pressure is 940 hPa.

Storm Surge Guidance:

Storm surge with height of around 2.5-3.0 meters above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts of Odisha and Srikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh during landfall
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46280
Phailin is about to go ballistic.

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I wonder if I've posted as many article links as HadesGodWyvern has posted advisories ;)
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Quoting 766. g564841:
Bck for a quick update .. wind has picked up speed . Armed forces are moving vehcile and troops for relief ops. Oh and they upgraded it to a super cyclone .


Good luck out there. If you cannot get out of the path of this thing, beware and prepare.
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774. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
Storm Warning
TROPICAL STORM WIPHA (T1326)
15:00 PM JST October 11 2013
======================================

Near Marianas Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Wipha (994 hPa) located at 14.1N 141.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 6 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center

Dvorak intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 15.8N 139.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 17.5N 137.3E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 20.4N 134.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46280

Slightly blurry image. Probably because the BoB is at the edge of MTSAT-2's coverage area.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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