Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Phailin Rapidly Intensifying, Headed Towards India

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:22 PM GMT on October 10, 2013

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Very dangerous Tropical Cyclone Phailin, in the North Indian Ocean's Bay of Bengal, has put on an impressive burst of rapid intensification, going from a tropical storm with 65 mph winds to a formidable Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds in just twelve hours. Satellite estimates of Phailin's strength at 8 am EDT ranged as high as 135 mph. Satellite images show that Phailin, whose name means "a sapphire" in Thai, continues to intensify. The cloud tops of the very intense thunderstorms in the eyewall are expanding and cooling, showing that their updrafts are growing stronger and pushing the clouds higher into the atmosphere. Water temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, and the ocean heat content is very high, 80 - 100 kJ/cm^2--a level often associated with rapid intensification. With wind shear low, Phailin should be able to continue to intensify until an eyewall replacement cycle begins. It is very difficult for a tropical cyclone to maintain an eye diameter less than ten miles across before the inner core grows unstable and the eyewall collapses, with a new, larger-diameter eyewall forming from an outer spiral band. This process typically weakens the top winds of a tropical cyclone by 5 - 15 mph, but spreads hurricane-force winds over a larger area of ocean, resulting a larger storm surge, but less wind damage. With Phailin's eye diameter already down to a tiny 9 miles, an eyewall replacement cycle is likely to occur by Friday morning.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phailin, taken at approximately 07:30 UTC on October 10, 2013. At the time, Phailin had top winds of 75 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Phailin
The models are in tight agreement that Phailin will track northwest into the northeast coast of India, with landfall expected to occur between 06 - 12 UTC on Saturday. The 11 am EDT Thursday forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center predicts that Phailin will peak as a top-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds 12 hours before landfall. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is predicting that Phailin will be a borderline Category 2/Category 3 storm at landfall. The 06Z Thursday run of the HWRF model predicted that Phailin would be a strong Category 3 storm with 130 mph winds at landfall on Saturday.


Figure 2. Storm surge forecast for Tropical Cyclone Phailin, made on October 10, 2013. The peak surge was predicted to be 87 cm (2.9'). This forecast is likely to be a considerable underestimate of the surge, given Phailin's recent rapid intensification. Image credit: IMD.

The Bay of Bengal is notorious for deadly tropical cyclones
There is good reason to be concerned when a major tropical cyclone forms in the Bay of Bengal. Twenty-six of the thirty-five deadliest tropical cyclones in world history have been Bay of Bengal storms. During the past two centuries, 42% of Earth's tropical cyclone-associated deaths have occurred in Bangladesh, and 27% have occurred in India (Nicholls et al., 1995.) Phailin is likely to be the strongest tropical cyclone to affect India in fourteen years, since the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone. That terrible storm hit Northeast India in the Indian state of Odisha (formerly called Orissa) near the city of Bhubaneswar, as a Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds on October 29, 1999. The mighty cyclone, which peaked at Category 5 strength with 160 mph winds and a 912 mb central pressure shortly before landfall, drove a storm surge of 26 feet (8 meters) onto the coast. The storm stalled just inland, dumping torrential rains on portions of India already saturated from the landfall of Category 4 Tropical Cyclone 04B just twelve days before. The catastrophe killed 9,658 people and left $2.5 billion in damage (1999 dollars), India's most expensive and fourth deadliest tropical cyclone in the past 100 years. Although Phailin is expected to hit the same province of India that the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone hit, Phailin's landfall location is predicted to fall about 100 miles farther to the south, in a region where the coast is not as low-lying. This should keep the death toll due to storm surge much lower compared to the 1999 Odisha Cyclone, where more than 70% of the deaths occurred due to the storm surge. The latest storm surge forecast from IMD (Figure 2) predicts a peak surge under 3', but this is much too low, considering Phailin's recent round of rapid intensification. Phailin's heavy rains will be capable of causing great destruction, as did the rains from the 1999 Odisha cyclone. More than 2,000 of the deaths from that storm occurred due to fresh water flooding in the town of Padmapur, located more than 150 miles from the coast. Deforestation was cited as a contributing cause to these destructive floods that killed 36% of the town's population.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a detailed post on India's tropical cyclone history.

References
Nicholls, R.J.N., N. Mimura, J.C. Topping, 1995, "Climate change in south and south-east Asia: some implications for coastal areas," J Glob Environ Eng 1995;1:137–54.



98L in the Eastern Atlantic more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 98L) located about 400 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is headed west to west-northwest at about 10 mph. Satellite loops show that 98L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms with a substantial amount of spin. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear today, but the shear is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, Friday - Monday, making Thursday the most likely day for development. The UKMET model develops the disturbance into a tropical depression this week, but the European and GFS models do not. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 50%, and 5-day odds of 50%. 98L's projected west-northwest track is expected take it several hundred miles northeast of the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands by the middle of next week, according to the 00Z Thursday morning runs of the GFS and European models.

Typhoon Nari headed towards the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, Category 1 Typhoon Nari is expected to intensify into a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds and make landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines near 12 UTC Friday. Nari will then make a second landfall in Vietnam around 00 UTC on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 142. StormTrackerScott:


Just under 20k

Hurricane Mitch: Casualties

In total, more than 11,000 people (some estimates put the figure as high as 18,000) died because of the hurricane, making Mitch the most deadly storm in the Western Hemisphere since the Great Hurricane of 1780 in the eastern Caribbean, in which more than 20,000 people perished. Additionally, several million people were made homeless or severely impacted by Hurricane Mitch, which is estimated to have caused more than $5 billion in damages.

In the aftermath of the disaster, the World Meteorological Organization retired Mitch from its list of Atlantic Ocean hurricane names, due to the storm’s devastating impact.



10/26/98 21:45 UTC | GOES-8 | H5 180 mph


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18z Best Tracks for Pahilin at 125kts,Nari at 85kts and 25W still a TD.

02B PHAILIN 131010 1800 15.6N 89.4E IO 125 929


24W NARI 131010 1800 15.5N 125.6E WPAC 85 959


25W TWENTYFIVE 131010 1800 13.3N 142.9E WPAC 30 1000
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Quoting 158. barbamz:

Phailin's shrinking eye.


It seems to have been filling in then cleared out again...

Will be bad news if it completes an EWRC and fully recovers and restrengthens.
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169. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
So wait yours is the most up to date data or the one I posted with the model?

Here is what else was posted:

At 1200 UTC, 10 October 2013, PHAILIN (IO02) was located in the Bay of Bengal basin at 15.4°N and 90.3°E. The current intensity was 100 kt and the center was moving at 6 kt at a bearing of 315 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb.


Ya, 1500 PM UTC

It's the latest advisory that the IMD has yet to reveal to the public
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44881
Quoting 164. HadesGodWyvern:


ya, you have to watch the timestamp (2030 PM), which is about 4 hours ago.
So wait yours is the most up to date data or the one I posted with the model?

Here is what else was posted:

At 1200 UTC, 10 October 2013, PHAILIN (IO02) was located in the Bay of Bengal basin at 15.4°N and 90.3°E. The current intensity was 100 kt and the center was moving at 6 kt at a bearing of 315 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb.
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Advanced Dvorak Technique

PHAILIN
Time MSLP/Vmax Fnl Adj Ini Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd Cntr Mean Scene
2013OCT10 183000 7.2 917.5 146.0 7.2 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 4.64 -79.76 EYE

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thanx keep for the response...so since it's slow....let's play a game....

name the wind speed of the storm at the time the image was taken....






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Too bad it couldn't be over the open waters of the North Atlantic.

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164. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Looks like new intensity is up to 100 knots.



ya, you have to watch the timestamp (2030 PM), which is about 4 hours ago.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44881
98L
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Intensity models for Phailin:

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161. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NARI (T1325)
3:00 PM JST October 11 2013
======================================

Sea East Of The Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Nari (975 hPa) located at 15.3N 125.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Storm Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in north quadrant
150 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T4.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 15.8N 121.8E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 15.8N 117.7E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 15.6N 113.2E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44881
98L, while not looking great, has organized a lot today. The COC has been south of the heavy convection for the lifespan of 98L. Finally today the convection is wrapping around the COC. This has a very strong spin to it and is more organized than it looks, I think 98L has a chance to surprise.
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Quoting 156. HadesGodWyvern:
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM PHAILIN (BOB04-2013)
20:30 PM IST October 10 2013
======================================

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm in East central Bay of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Coast

At 15:00 PM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Phailin over east central Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary slightly intensified further and now lays center near 15.5N 90.0E, about 650 km southeast of Paradip, 700 km southeast of Gopalpur, and 700 km east southeast of Kalingapatnam.

It would continue to move northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast between Kalingapatnam and Paradip, close to Gopalpur (Odisha) by Friday/Saturday as a very severe cyclonic storm with sustained winds of 105-110 knots.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 85 knots with gusts of 100 knots.

Storm Surge Guidance:

Storm surge with height of around 2.0-2.5 meters above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts of Odisha and Srikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh during landfall.
Looks like new intensity is up to 100 knots.

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Phailin's shrinking eye.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 52 Comments: 5705
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156. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM PHAILIN (BOB04-2013)
20:30 PM IST October 10 2013
======================================

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm in East central Bay of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Coast

At 15:00 PM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Phailin over east central Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary slightly intensified further and now lays center near 15.5N 90.0E, about 650 km southeast of Paradip, 700 km southeast of Gopalpur, and 700 km east southeast of Kalingapatnam.

It would continue to move northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast between Kalingapatnam and Paradip, close to Gopalpur (Odisha) by Friday/Saturday as a very severe cyclonic storm with sustained winds of 105-110 knots.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 85 knots with gusts of 100 knots.

Storm Surge Guidance:

Storm surge with height of around 2.0-2.5 meters above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts of Odisha and Srikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh during landfall.
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Quoting 151. Tropicsweatherpr:
SLU, 98L is moving west 270 degrees at 13kts.

LATCUR = 10.6N LONCUR = 33.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
It has written St. Barth all over it.
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The matrix up above showing as many as 500,000 deaths in 1970 blows my mind. I was 11 at the time and can honestly say I do not remember that.
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Quoting 151. Tropicsweatherpr:
SLU, 98L is moving west 270 degrees at 13kts.

LATCUR = 10.6N LONCUR = 33.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 13KT


Hope it continues this way until 52W...
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In addition to post 147 I seriously think there is a correlation to the drought that has been plaguing Texas in terms of the actual steering of tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin as well as the intensity, notice how since the drought began in Texas, that there have been no major hurricanes in the GOM. Also, the drought over Brazil is an interesting one and if you combine that with the SAL then it makes sense for the lack of a strong Cape-Verde season.
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SLU, 98L is moving west 270 degrees at 13kts.

LATCUR = 10.6N LONCUR = 33.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
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2013OCT10 180000 7.2 917.5 146.0 7.2 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 4.04 -79.87 EYE 15 IR N/A 15.59 -89.42 COMBO MET7 41.3
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
18z Best Track for 98L.

AL, 98, 2013101018, , BEST, 0, 106N, 330W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S
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Quoting 99. sar2401:

True, and I didn't mean to suggest that only the GFS has stumbled this year. See the recently "upgraded" GEM/CMC for even worse performance. The GFS is still performing well as a terrestrial model, picking up both the blizzards and tornado outbreaks earlier this week. That's what's so baffling to me. Other than moving the GFS to a new computer platform, which may be part of the problem, nothing else has really changed, but tropical performance has declined dramatically. Something else has changed about this season compared to previous seasons. I'm not smart enough to figure out what it is, but I hope the scientists can figure it out during the off-season.
You have to give it to the GFS though it is doing mighty well in the WPAC and caught on to Phailin and the intensity looks just about right. For some reason our side of the basin is a lot harder to predict, maybe because of the factors TheDawnAwakening mentioned. SAL is a fairly new study and I think there is a lot more negatives when there is presence earlier in a season to put a damper on the rest of the season. What the SAL may be doing is drying out the mid-levels of the atmosphere, nevermind the warm sst, but when the atmosphere is dry up above it negates the growth of thunderstorms with height and that's how you would get the deeper storms, this year we have had a lot more shallower storms and very short lived ones too, because they have had to fight off that dry air. So I think the SAL is a valid reason as to why the models have struggled more in the Atlantic Basin then the other Basins. I think once more research is done on the SAL the results can then be inputted into the computer models and will get more accurate results based on that.
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Quoting 135. hydrus:
This a monster.
yes it is lots of suffering to come
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Hopeful thinking Blue, won't be easy, but never is.

Well, as suspected, already above forecast high of 78. 79 w/ a 58 dew point, winds a little more easterly, SE to ESE from 4-11mph w/ 30.01".
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EP, 94, 2013101018, , BEST, 0, 140N, 1030W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 100, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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Quoting 133. Astrometeor:


Permanent snow? White Christmases here only happen like once every 10 years or so...last one was a couple years ago, epic Christmas Day for a kid.

Of course, I live in Tennessee, so we don't get much, average is for 12-14 inches a year, but we never see that.


Well, I live in Wisconsin.
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Quoting 137. NCstu:


Using those numbers Mitch wouldn't make the cut. I thought Mitch was more like 20k though.


Just under 20k

Hurricane Mitch: Casualties

In total, more than 11,000 people (some estimates put the figure as high as 18,000) died because of the hurricane, making Mitch the most deadly storm in the Western Hemisphere since the Great Hurricane of 1780 in the eastern Caribbean, in which more than 20,000 people perished. Additionally, several million people were made homeless or severely impacted by Hurricane Mitch, which is estimated to have caused more than $5 billion in damages.

In the aftermath of the disaster, the World Meteorological Organization retired Mitch from its list of Atlantic Ocean hurricane names, due to the storm’s devastating impact.
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Quoting 137. NCstu:


Using those numbers Mitch wouldn't make the cut. I thought Mitch was more like 20k though.


Official is 19,000 but is presumed to be much higher.
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TXIO24 KNES 101524
TCSNIO

A. 02B (PHAILIN)

B. 10/1430Z

C. 15.5N

D. 89.9E

E. ONE/MET-7

F. T6.5/6.5/D3.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...OW EYE IS EMBEDDED IN...AND SURROUNDED BY...CMG WHICH
RESULTS IN A DT OF 7.0 AFTER 0.5 IS ADDED FOR AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. THE
AVERAGE DT CALCULATED HOURLY OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS ENDING AT 1430Z
WAS 6.75 AND THIS SERVES AS THE BASIS FOR BOTH THE FT AND FOR BREAKING
SEVERAL DVORAK RULES. MET AND PT ARE UNREPRESENTATIVE AT 4.5 AND 5.0,
RESPECTIVELY.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK
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This is just for Hondoras.

Honduras

A. Summary

For Honduras, Hurricane Mitch constituted an unprecedented catastrophe due to the devastation caused, the human and social toll and the losses and damages to its infrastructure and productive system. Nearly one third of the highway network was affected, with the consequent isolation of cities and productive zones; thousands of dwellings were destroyed leaving thousands of families homeless, many of them unemployed and with no source of income; there was likewise a negative impact on future production and exports, economic growth, employment and revenues. According to the National Emergency Cabinet, the hurricane caused the death of 5,657 people (without counting the 8,058 missing), injuring another 12, 272 and initially affecting 1.5 million people (of the 6.2 million total population), but with the mitigation of the emergency, this last figure was reduced to 700,000, of which 285,000 remained in provisional shelters until the end of November. The preceding clearly portrays the human and social tragedy that Hurricane Mitch represented for Honduras. With respect to material losses, ECLAC estimated them at around US$3.8 billion, of which US$2.0 billion affected the social and productive capital of the country and the remaining US$1.8 billion on production.

The economic program of the Government in 1998 had been largely successfull despite the effect on food supplies from the El Niño during the first half of the year. Growth of the GDP was registering (until October) a rate similar to that of the preceding year; inflation, despite the increase in the sales tax and El Niño, maintained a steady rate below 15% annually; fiscal accounts and the balance of payments were performing satisfactorily, the latter resulting in continued strengthening of international reserves. At the moment of the disaster, the macroeconomic results and outlook were so auspicious that the government and the IMF were close to signing an ESAF program. Preliminary estimates indicate that GDP growth for all of 1998 was only 3%, compared to the 5.1% recorded in 1997 and the 5% that had been estimated before Hurricane Mitch. The prolongation of the hurricane effects on production, particularly agriculture, is expected to result in a 2% decrease in GDP for 1999.

The Administration is likely to collect extraordinary revenues from the privatization of Hondutel and should be able to release resources as the programs for debt relief are carried out. This could allow the Administration to finance the expenditures and extraordinary investment that the reconstruction effort will require, while maintaining the fiscal equilibrium that is crucial for macroeconomic stability. The first estimates point towards a financing gap of the current account of the balance of payments at more than US$400 million and a drop in GDP of 2%, added to the decrease in fiscal revenues and investment expenditures increases, all of which are expected to generate a fiscal deficit of 8.4% of GDP.

With significant damage to the economic and social infrastructure, a multiannual reconstruction program that will prioritize over time the investment needs will require the approval of reconstruction programs and projects in amounts that can only be achieved through a decisive commitment from the international community of donors and multilateral development agencies.

The program agreed with the Government of Honduras for future loans from IDB emphasizes on reconstruction and transformation. A loan program is actively prepared which, in addition to the already approved Emergency for Water and Highway Infrastructure operation, includes one for Water and Sanitation, another for the Housing Sector, and one for Protection of Social Expenditures. Other projects under consideration include Highway Rehabilitation, and Legislative and Judicial Powers modernization.
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Quoting 132. SLU:


good news


Not if you're looking for global ACE to return to normal.
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137. NCstu
Quoting 121. StormTrackerScott:


Hurricane Mitch was one of the deadliest hurricanes of All-Time for the Atlantic Basin. Dr Masters dropped the ball on that one.

Hurricane Mitch

Hurricane Mitch was the most powerful hurricane and the most destructive of the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season, with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph. Wikipedia
Total fatalities: 19,325
Category: Category 5 Hurricane (SSHS)
Date: October 22, 1998 %u2013 November 5, 1998


The human cost of Hurricane Mitch was enormous. It will probably never be known exactly how many died. As of 19 November 1998* estimates were as follows:-

Honduras: 7000 dead, 8300 missing
Nicaragua: 3000 dead, 2200 missing
Guatemala: 258 dead, 121 missing
El Salvador: 272 dead, 100 missing


Using those numbers Mitch wouldn't make the cut. I thought Mitch was more like 20k though.
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Quoting 130. hydrus:
8300 missing ? They may have survived and relocated.


Or washed away or buried under mud. We will never know the exact death toll from Mitch as so many drowned or was buried under debri.
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Quoting 131. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
latest image 02B looks to fill in the whole bay expanding out to cover larger area now

This a monster.
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Quoting 130. hydrus:
8300 missing ? They may have survived and relocated.


Yes, or their bodies were never found. But that is the official count for the storm, not sure why they didn't do a follow-up.
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Quoting 122. FunnelVortex:


That's when the first flurries usually show.

We also usually get our first accumulating snow in November, but it melts. We usually don't get our first permanent snow until early to mid December.

However a couple years I remember where we did not get a white Christmas. It was just anomalously warm.


Permanent snow? White Christmases here only happen like once every 10 years or so...last one was a couple years ago, epic Christmas Day for a kid.

Of course, I live in Tennessee, so we don't get much, average is for 12-14 inches a year, but we never see that.
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132. SLU
Quoting 126. Tropicsweatherpr:
Climate Prediction Center 10/10/13 update forecasts Neutral Enso thru the Spring of 2014


good news
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latest image 02B looks to fill in the whole bay expanding out to cover larger area now

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Quoting 121. StormTrackerScott:


Hurricane Mitch was one of the deadliest hurricanes of All-Time for the Atlantic Basin. Dr Masters dropped the ball on that one.

Hurricane Mitch

Hurricane Mitch was the most powerful hurricane and the most destructive of the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season, with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph. Wikipedia
Total fatalities: 19,325
Category: Category 5 Hurricane (SSHS)
Date: October 22, 1998 %u2013 November 5, 1998


The human cost of Hurricane Mitch was enormous. It will probably never be known exactly how many died. As of 19 November 1998* estimates were as follows:-

Honduras: 7000 dead, 8300 missing
Nicaragua: 3000 dead, 2200 missing
Guatemala: 258 dead, 121 missing
El Salvador: 272 dead, 100 missing
8300 missing ? They may have survived and relocated.
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Official death toll from Hurricane Mitch is 11,000. Definitely under what the reality most likely is, but that's the number. That number is taken from a cached web page that was valid as of Oct. 1 before the site went down. "www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/reports/mitch/mitch.html"
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Quoting 127. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
I've seen heavy snow in early nov before just don't last long cause ground normally still not cold enough to keep it from melting


That is exactly what happens. But it does help to cool the ground though.
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Quoting 122. FunnelVortex:


That's when the first flurries usually show.

We also usually get our first accumulating snow in November, but it melts. We usually don't get our first permanent snow until early to mid December.

However a couple years I remember where we did not get a white Christmas. It was just anomalously warm.
I've seen heavy snow in early nov before just don't last long cause ground normally still not cold enough to keep it from melting
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Not enough research by Doc done on this post. Just a quick post with missing facts from other deadly hurricanes & Typhoons.
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124. SLU
Quoting 112. Tropicsweatherpr:
2 PM TWO remains at 50%/50%.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO
FORM TONIGHT
OR FRIDAY BEFORE UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL LEVEL WINDS
BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR THE DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.


TD Tonight? Oh please.

Like the NHC is more desperate to see something than we are.

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Quoting 121. StormTrackerScott:


Hurricane Mitch was one of the deadliest hurricanes of All-Time for the Atlantic Basin. Dr Masters dropped the ball on that one.

Hurricane Mitch
Hurricane Mitch was the most powerful hurricane and the most destructive of the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season, with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph. Wikipedia
Total fatalities: 19,325
Category: Category 5 Hurricane (SSHS)
Date: October 22, 1998 %u2013 November 5, 1998


The human cost of Hurricane Mitch was enormous. It will probably never be known exactly how many died. As of 19 November 1998* estimates were as follows:-

Honduras: 7000 dead, 8300 missing
Nicaragua: 3000 dead, 2200 missing
Guatemala: 258 dead, 121 missing
El Salvador: 272 dead, 100 missing
Where are you getting your information.? Wiki
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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