Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Phailin Rapidly Intensifying, Headed Towards India

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:22 PM GMT on October 10, 2013

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Very dangerous Tropical Cyclone Phailin, in the North Indian Ocean's Bay of Bengal, has put on an impressive burst of rapid intensification, going from a tropical storm with 65 mph winds to a formidable Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds in just twelve hours. Satellite estimates of Phailin's strength at 8 am EDT ranged as high as 135 mph. Satellite images show that Phailin, whose name means "a sapphire" in Thai, continues to intensify. The cloud tops of the very intense thunderstorms in the eyewall are expanding and cooling, showing that their updrafts are growing stronger and pushing the clouds higher into the atmosphere. Water temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, and the ocean heat content is very high, 80 - 100 kJ/cm^2--a level often associated with rapid intensification. With wind shear low, Phailin should be able to continue to intensify until an eyewall replacement cycle begins. It is very difficult for a tropical cyclone to maintain an eye diameter less than ten miles across before the inner core grows unstable and the eyewall collapses, with a new, larger-diameter eyewall forming from an outer spiral band. This process typically weakens the top winds of a tropical cyclone by 5 - 15 mph, but spreads hurricane-force winds over a larger area of ocean, resulting a larger storm surge, but less wind damage. With Phailin's eye diameter already down to a tiny 9 miles, an eyewall replacement cycle is likely to occur by Friday morning.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phailin, taken at approximately 07:30 UTC on October 10, 2013. At the time, Phailin had top winds of 75 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Phailin
The models are in tight agreement that Phailin will track northwest into the northeast coast of India, with landfall expected to occur between 06 - 12 UTC on Saturday. The 11 am EDT Thursday forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center predicts that Phailin will peak as a top-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds 12 hours before landfall. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is predicting that Phailin will be a borderline Category 2/Category 3 storm at landfall. The 06Z Thursday run of the HWRF model predicted that Phailin would be a strong Category 3 storm with 130 mph winds at landfall on Saturday.


Figure 2. Storm surge forecast for Tropical Cyclone Phailin, made on October 10, 2013. The peak surge was predicted to be 87 cm (2.9'). This forecast is likely to be a considerable underestimate of the surge, given Phailin's recent rapid intensification. Image credit: IMD.

The Bay of Bengal is notorious for deadly tropical cyclones
There is good reason to be concerned when a major tropical cyclone forms in the Bay of Bengal. Twenty-six of the thirty-five deadliest tropical cyclones in world history have been Bay of Bengal storms. During the past two centuries, 42% of Earth's tropical cyclone-associated deaths have occurred in Bangladesh, and 27% have occurred in India (Nicholls et al., 1995.) Phailin is likely to be the strongest tropical cyclone to affect India in fourteen years, since the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone. That terrible storm hit Northeast India in the Indian state of Odisha (formerly called Orissa) near the city of Bhubaneswar, as a Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds on October 29, 1999. The mighty cyclone, which peaked at Category 5 strength with 160 mph winds and a 912 mb central pressure shortly before landfall, drove a storm surge of 26 feet (8 meters) onto the coast. The storm stalled just inland, dumping torrential rains on portions of India already saturated from the landfall of Category 4 Tropical Cyclone 04B just twelve days before. The catastrophe killed 9,658 people and left $2.5 billion in damage (1999 dollars), India's most expensive and fourth deadliest tropical cyclone in the past 100 years. Although Phailin is expected to hit the same province of India that the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone hit, Phailin's landfall location is predicted to fall about 100 miles farther to the south, in a region where the coast is not as low-lying. This should keep the death toll due to storm surge much lower compared to the 1999 Odisha Cyclone, where more than 70% of the deaths occurred due to the storm surge. The latest storm surge forecast from IMD (Figure 2) predicts a peak surge under 3', but this is much too low, considering Phailin's recent round of rapid intensification. Phailin's heavy rains will be capable of causing great destruction, as did the rains from the 1999 Odisha cyclone. More than 2,000 of the deaths from that storm occurred due to fresh water flooding in the town of Padmapur, located more than 150 miles from the coast. Deforestation was cited as a contributing cause to these destructive floods that killed 36% of the town's population.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a detailed post on India's tropical cyclone history.

References
Nicholls, R.J.N., N. Mimura, J.C. Topping, 1995, "Climate change in south and south-east Asia: some implications for coastal areas," J Glob Environ Eng 1995;1:137–54.



98L in the Eastern Atlantic more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 98L) located about 400 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is headed west to west-northwest at about 10 mph. Satellite loops show that 98L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms with a substantial amount of spin. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear today, but the shear is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, Friday - Monday, making Thursday the most likely day for development. The UKMET model develops the disturbance into a tropical depression this week, but the European and GFS models do not. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 50%, and 5-day odds of 50%. 98L's projected west-northwest track is expected take it several hundred miles northeast of the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands by the middle of next week, according to the 00Z Thursday morning runs of the GFS and European models.

Typhoon Nari headed towards the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, Category 1 Typhoon Nari is expected to intensify into a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds and make landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines near 12 UTC Friday. Nari will then make a second landfall in Vietnam around 00 UTC on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
202 PM AST THU OCT 10 2013

PRC005-071-099-131-102100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0312.131010T1802Z-131010T2100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z .OO/
MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-AGUADILLA PR-ISABELA PR-
202 PM AST THU OCT 10 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN...AGUADILLA AND ISABELA

* UNTIL 500 PM AST

* AT 200 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO WITH VERY HEAVY RAINS MOVING TO THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH. UP TO TWO INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN IN
PARTS OF ISABELA AND ANOTHER ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT THREE HOURS. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING IN URBAN
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&
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Quoting 187. prcane4you:
52W ? What about the shear?


I HOPE FOR A MIRACLE
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6455
Quoting 211. StormTrackerScott:

They don't get anymore powerful than this folks.
Your response has absolutely nothing to do with my comment! Why did you quote my comment in that post?
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The FIM model shows a broad low possibly taking shape in the SW Caribbean near Panama in the next 5 to 7 days.
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219. MPI88
"The peak surge was predicted to be 87 cm"

Very likely to be an underestimate when compared to historic observations within the Bay of Bengal.

What is the slope of the continental shelf in this area of the Bay of Bengal? Its rather steep right?



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actually....if you read the list it's not in the top 35
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Quoting 214. Astrometeor:


Powerful isn't what Masters was talking about though, Mitch didn't murder enough people to make the list. 11,000 died from Mitch. Not high enough.


19,200 isn't high enough yes 11,000 confirmed but the other 8,000 were never seen again either buried alive or washed away.
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Quoting 210. Xulonn:
Why the undeserved bashing of Dr. Masters?

Yes, Mitch was deadly with over 10,000 lives lost, but it was not one of the "35 Deadliest Tropical Cyclones in World History" which was title the source of Dr. Masters' posted graphics. That part of the blog entry was for the purpose of illustrating the fact that the Bay of Bengal "is notorious for deadly tropical cyclones," and indeed, over 2,000,000 people have been killed there by tropical cyclones since modern records have been kept.


Yeah I know more like the top 30 deadliest ever. All I am saying is Doc didn't even mention it.
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Quoting 211. StormTrackerScott:


They don't get anymore powerful than this folks.



Powerful isn't what Masters was talking about though, Mitch didn't murder enough people to make the list. 11,000 died from Mitch. Not high enough.
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Quoting 210. Xulonn:
Why the undeserved bashing of Dr. Masters?

Yes, Mitch was deadly with over 10,000 lives lost, but it was not one of the "35 Deadliest Tropical Cyclones in World History" which was title the source of Dr. Masters' posted graphics. That part of the blog entry was for the purpose of illustrating the fact that the Bay of Bengal "is notorious for deadly tropical cyclones," and indeed, over 2,000,000 people have been killed there by tropical cyclones since modern records have been kept.
i would suspect if a cat-5 went into say NYC dead on...there would be such a death toll maybe like india..manhattan itself really doesnt have many excape routes..and IF the hurricane was SUPPOSED to travel up the coast then made that right hand turn..i cannot imagine the deaths and destruction that would ensue...geez,horrible even thinking about it.
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So what do we have to go on other than imagery? Do they have weather buoys? Drones? Weather balloons? Typhoon hunters? Anything?




well...they actually do have some of those...but to answer your question...without that information if i had only imagery to go on...then i would have to state that i needed more information..not pull a guess out of thin air
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Quoting 210. Xulonn:
Why the undeserved bashing of Dr. Masters?

Yes, Mitch was deadly with over 10,000 lives lost, but it was not one of the "35 Deadliest Tropical Cyclones in World History" which was title the source of Dr. Masters' posted graphics. That part of the blog entry was for the purpose of illustrating the fact that the Bay of Bengal "is notorious for deadly tropical cyclones," and indeed, over 2,000,000 people have been killed there by tropical cyclones since modern records have been kept.


They don't get anymore powerful than this folks.

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Quoting 121. StormTrackerScott:Hurricane Mitch was one of the deadliest hurricanes of All-Time for the Atlantic Basin. Dr Masters dropped the ball on that one...
Why the undeserved bashing of Dr. Masters?

Yes, Mitch was deadly with over 10,000 lives lost, but it was not one of the "35 Deadliest Tropical Cyclones in World History" which was title the source of Dr. Masters' posted graphics. That part of the blog entry was for the purpose of illustrating the fact that the Bay of Bengal "is notorious for deadly tropical cyclones," and indeed, over 2,000,000 people have been killed there by tropical cyclones since modern records have been kept.
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209. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Here's Wipha

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
Storm Warning
TROPICAL STORM WIPHA (T1326)
3:00 AM JST October 11 2013
======================================

Near Marianas Islands

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Wipha (996 hPa) located at 13.5N 142.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center

Dvorak intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 15.5N 140.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Marianas Islands
48 HRS: 17.1N 138.3E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 18.9N 136.0E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46906
Quoting 154. DanAlabama:
The matrix up above showing as many as 500,000 deaths in 1970 blows my mind. I was 11 at the time and can honestly say I do not remember that.
Me either... Only 3 TV channels. No internet. No 24 hour news ect... :)
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206. NCstu
Quoting 204. ricderr:
well trop.....thanx for the response...but weather weenies through and through are arguing wind speed by just using imagery...i am with you on this one...more info would be needed


So what do we have to go on other than imagery? Do they have weather buoys? Drones? Weather balloons? Typhoon hunters? Anything?
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Won't get cooler here till Wednesday next week. I like the warm weather right now, just a little hard to enjoy it with a bandaged hand...

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well trop.....thanx for the response...but weather weenies through and through are arguing wind speed by just using imagery...i am with you on this one...more info would be needed
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Quoting 191. ricderr:
wind speed of this storm anyone?





Looks like a decent Category 4. Need more information to be more specific.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
Afternoon to all the arm chair meteorologist out there. If 98L/Lorenzo survives the dry air to the north and west I doubt it will the 20-30 wind shear forecast for Friday through the w/e. Juz sayin'
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Hello CyberWeatherWorld

Its downright cold here in wilmington NC
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.
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Thanks for the links I'll open them later this evening.

Quoting 190. ChillinInTheKeys:


I do recall this though I was young also. George Harrison and Ravi Shankar put together what may have been the 1st large scale aid concert and raised a lot of much needed money as well as awareness of the disaster.

The Concert for Bangladesh...

Link

Link
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Growing up in Southern California we had what was known as June gloom. However, plenty of sunny months ahead unlike what you mention here.

Quoting 193. yqt1001:


The fog here is insane this time of year! It takes until about 11am for it to dissipate. It's really miserable waking up to overcast every day for a few months, and then to wake up to snow for the following 6 months after that.
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Quoting 184. ricderr:
one more time.......



can you name the windspeed at the time the photo was taken






let me remember 21 of sept storm winds were 90 at start of the day of 21 by end of the 21 it was 140 145
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55972
Quoting 191. ricderr:
wind speed of this storm anyone?






Would help if it was not given away in the URL


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thu mb/6/62/US_Navy_070819-N-0000X-001_Satellite_image ry_shows_Hurricane_Dean_as_it_moves_over_Jamaica_a nd_heads_toward_the_Yucatan_Peninsula._The_categor y_4_storm%27s_winds_are_now_sustained_at_145_mph_w ith_higher_gusts.jpg/682px-thumbnail.jpg
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
195. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 188. GTstormChaserCaleb:
This image was taken back on Sept. 25th, it's not ice, it's actually fog over lake superior.



looks can be deceiving ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32356
194. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
New Delphi ADT has 6.0 Dvorak.

2013OCT10 190000 5.9 929.8 +0.0 112.4 5.9 5.9 7.5 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF 8.14 -79.77 EYE 14 IR 85.8 15.63
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46906
Quoting 188. GTstormChaserCaleb:
This image was taken back on Sept. 25th, it's not ice, it's actually fog over lake superior.



The fog here is insane this time of year! It takes until about 11am for it to dissipate. It's really miserable waking up to overcast every day for a few months, and then to wake up to snow for the following 6 months after that.
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New JTWC advisory has Phailin @ 125 knots.

Likely 25 knots too weak:


2013OCT10 190000 7.3 914.6 149.0 7.3 7.5 7.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF
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wind speed of this storm anyone?




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Quoting 154. DanAlabama:
The matrix up above showing as many as 500,000 deaths in 1970 blows my mind. I was 11 at the time and can honestly say I do not remember that.


I do recall this though I was young also. George Harrison and Ravi Shankar put together what may have been the 1st large scale aid concert and raised a lot of much needed money as well as awareness of the disaster.

The Concert for Bangladesh...

Link

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 184. ricderr:
one more time.......



can you name the windspeed at the time the photo was taken






185 mph.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
This image was taken back on Sept. 25th, it's not ice, it's actually fog over lake superior.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Quoting 153. CaribBoy:


Hope it continues this way until 52W...
52W ? What about the shear?
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Phailin is definitely going to be the odd yet outrageous category 5 I've been expecting for the past few months.

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185. NCstu
Quoting 179. Envoirment:


02B PHAILIN 131010 1800 15.6N 89.4E IO 125 929

Pressure is at 929mb from the latest update and winds 125kts.

With more time to strengthen, this could be the 2nd category 5 system this year, after Usagi.


very scary. Anyone know what tide it will be at landfall?
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one more time.......



can you name the windspeed at the time the photo was taken






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183. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
IMD gave Phailin 90 knots for the 15:00 PM advisory instead of the 85 knots I figured from the bulletin page

central pressure of 966 hPa at this advisory.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46906

.THIS LONG DURATION NOR`EASTER IS PRODUCING ROUGH CONDITIONS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SHORES OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE. WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ALONG THE DELAWARE BAY...AIDED
IN PART BY PERIODS OF WIND DRIVEN HEAVY RAIN. MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND HIGH SURF ARE ALSO EXPECTED DURING THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

NJZ012>014-020-022-025>027-102130-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0019.131010T1500Z-131011T2100Z/
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-ATLANTIC-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
928 AM EDT THU OCT 10 2013

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT
FRIDAY...

* LOCATION...THE NEW JERSEY COAST.

* COASTAL FLOODING...WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS FORECAST
DURING THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE. ANY HEAVY RAIN
THAT MIGHT OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
THE FLOODING.

* HIGH SURF WITH INCOMING EASTERLY SWELLS OF 6 TO 9 FEET WILL
PROBABLY RESULT IN BEACH EROSION.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE ALONG THE NEW JERSEY OCEAN FRONT OCCURS
BETWEEN NOON AND 100 PM THURSDAY. HIGH TIDE ON THE BACK BAYS OCCURS
LATER THAN THE HIGH TIDE ALONG THE OCEAN FRONT.

* IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD ROADWAY FLOODING IS FORECAST WITH THE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN
CONTRIBUTING TO THE PROBLEM.

* OUTLOOK...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE DAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE ON FRIDAY. THE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY HAS THEREFORE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MIGHT ALSO
OCCUR ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROAD
CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIRS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).
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02B/MH/P/C5
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55972
Quoting 160. Tribucanes:
98L, while not looking great, has organized a lot today. The COC has been south of the heavy convection for the lifespan of 98L. Finally today the convection is wrapping around the COC. This has a very strong spin to it and is more organized than it looks, I think 98L has a chance to surprise.


Past 50W and below 15N would be perfect.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6455
Quoting 174. Tribucanes:
If the pressure's already 948mb, 100kts just doesn't add up. Phailin's already a 110-120 knot storm, has to be at least. Anything other than an ERC going to slow this beast down? If Phailin's already down to 948mb how low will it go?


02B PHAILIN 131010 1800 15.6N 89.4E IO 125 929

Pressure is at 929mb from the latest update and winds 125kts.

With more time to strengthen, this could be the 2nd category 5 system this year, after Usagi.
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Discussing this with a co worker and trying to fathom the aftermath and logistics of the clean up efforts.

Mind boggling.

Quoting 154. DanAlabama:
The matrix up above showing as many as 500,000 deaths in 1970 blows my mind. I was 11 at the time and can honestly say I do not remember that.
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177. SLU
Quoting 151. Tropicsweatherpr:
SLU, 98L is moving west 270 degrees at 13kts.

LATCUR = 10.6N LONCUR = 33.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 13KT


Much further south than the models indicated 2 days ago.
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Quoting 155. nocanesplease:
It has written St. Barth all over it.


Really? lol
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6455
175. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Caleb he is what the IMD does

Advisory time releases
18:00 PM: release advisory information from 1500
21:00 PM: release advisory information from 1800
0:00 AM: release advisory information from 2100
...

and so on

This only occurs during a cyclone that has a WARNING issued.

It's very annoy, I know.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46906
If the pressure's already 948mb, 100kts just doesn't add up. Phailin's already a 110-120 knot storm, has to be at least. Anything other than an ERC going to slow this beast down? If Phailin's already down to 948mb how low will it go?
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774

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