Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Phailin Rapidly Intensifying, Headed Towards India

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:22 PM GMT on October 10, 2013

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Very dangerous Tropical Cyclone Phailin, in the North Indian Ocean's Bay of Bengal, has put on an impressive burst of rapid intensification, going from a tropical storm with 65 mph winds to a formidable Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds in just twelve hours. Satellite estimates of Phailin's strength at 8 am EDT ranged as high as 135 mph. Satellite images show that Phailin, whose name means "a sapphire" in Thai, continues to intensify. The cloud tops of the very intense thunderstorms in the eyewall are expanding and cooling, showing that their updrafts are growing stronger and pushing the clouds higher into the atmosphere. Water temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, and the ocean heat content is very high, 80 - 100 kJ/cm^2--a level often associated with rapid intensification. With wind shear low, Phailin should be able to continue to intensify until an eyewall replacement cycle begins. It is very difficult for a tropical cyclone to maintain an eye diameter less than ten miles across before the inner core grows unstable and the eyewall collapses, with a new, larger-diameter eyewall forming from an outer spiral band. This process typically weakens the top winds of a tropical cyclone by 5 - 15 mph, but spreads hurricane-force winds over a larger area of ocean, resulting a larger storm surge, but less wind damage. With Phailin's eye diameter already down to a tiny 9 miles, an eyewall replacement cycle is likely to occur by Friday morning.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phailin, taken at approximately 07:30 UTC on October 10, 2013. At the time, Phailin had top winds of 75 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Phailin
The models are in tight agreement that Phailin will track northwest into the northeast coast of India, with landfall expected to occur between 06 - 12 UTC on Saturday. The 11 am EDT Thursday forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center predicts that Phailin will peak as a top-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds 12 hours before landfall. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is predicting that Phailin will be a borderline Category 2/Category 3 storm at landfall. The 06Z Thursday run of the HWRF model predicted that Phailin would be a strong Category 3 storm with 130 mph winds at landfall on Saturday.


Figure 2. Storm surge forecast for Tropical Cyclone Phailin, made on October 10, 2013. The peak surge was predicted to be 87 cm (2.9'). This forecast is likely to be a considerable underestimate of the surge, given Phailin's recent rapid intensification. Image credit: IMD.

The Bay of Bengal is notorious for deadly tropical cyclones
There is good reason to be concerned when a major tropical cyclone forms in the Bay of Bengal. Twenty-six of the thirty-five deadliest tropical cyclones in world history have been Bay of Bengal storms. During the past two centuries, 42% of Earth's tropical cyclone-associated deaths have occurred in Bangladesh, and 27% have occurred in India (Nicholls et al., 1995.) Phailin is likely to be the strongest tropical cyclone to affect India in fourteen years, since the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone. That terrible storm hit Northeast India in the Indian state of Odisha (formerly called Orissa) near the city of Bhubaneswar, as a Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds on October 29, 1999. The mighty cyclone, which peaked at Category 5 strength with 160 mph winds and a 912 mb central pressure shortly before landfall, drove a storm surge of 26 feet (8 meters) onto the coast. The storm stalled just inland, dumping torrential rains on portions of India already saturated from the landfall of Category 4 Tropical Cyclone 04B just twelve days before. The catastrophe killed 9,658 people and left $2.5 billion in damage (1999 dollars), India's most expensive and fourth deadliest tropical cyclone in the past 100 years. Although Phailin is expected to hit the same province of India that the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone hit, Phailin's landfall location is predicted to fall about 100 miles farther to the south, in a region where the coast is not as low-lying. This should keep the death toll due to storm surge much lower compared to the 1999 Odisha Cyclone, where more than 70% of the deaths occurred due to the storm surge. The latest storm surge forecast from IMD (Figure 2) predicts a peak surge under 3', but this is much too low, considering Phailin's recent round of rapid intensification. Phailin's heavy rains will be capable of causing great destruction, as did the rains from the 1999 Odisha cyclone. More than 2,000 of the deaths from that storm occurred due to fresh water flooding in the town of Padmapur, located more than 150 miles from the coast. Deforestation was cited as a contributing cause to these destructive floods that killed 36% of the town's population.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a detailed post on India's tropical cyclone history.

References
Nicholls, R.J.N., N. Mimura, J.C. Topping, 1995, "Climate change in south and south-east Asia: some implications for coastal areas," J Glob Environ Eng 1995;1:137–54.



98L in the Eastern Atlantic more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 98L) located about 400 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is headed west to west-northwest at about 10 mph. Satellite loops show that 98L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms with a substantial amount of spin. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear today, but the shear is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, Friday - Monday, making Thursday the most likely day for development. The UKMET model develops the disturbance into a tropical depression this week, but the European and GFS models do not. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 50%, and 5-day odds of 50%. 98L's projected west-northwest track is expected take it several hundred miles northeast of the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands by the middle of next week, according to the 00Z Thursday morning runs of the GFS and European models.

Typhoon Nari headed towards the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, Category 1 Typhoon Nari is expected to intensify into a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds and make landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines near 12 UTC Friday. Nari will then make a second landfall in Vietnam around 00 UTC on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 268. CaribBoy:
The euro is still pretty close to me.... but as a naked swirl...
Well naked is better than nothing, might even bring you a straw shower. :P
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If the pressure is really down to 929mb and winds are 125kts, with Dvorak at 7.0, then can someone update the wiki article, or do we have to wait for an official report on these numbers?

2013 North Indian Ocean cyclone season
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Quoting 238. PalmBeachWeather:
Brrrr.. Had a low of 74 here this morning


Oh Please, It was 50.9 here. lol
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sorry frogger...but you said in your first response...they "require" one those two..your words...not mine...not that they may be involved in murder
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Other agencies up to 7.5



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The euro is still pretty close to me.... but as a naked swirl...
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Quoting 263. ncstorm:
watch out Scott..when Xulonn lashes on to you, its hard to shake him off..he only sees your posts right now..



As TI would say bring em out, bring em out. Link

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 14 Comments: 7805
I just dont know..I cannot even Imagine what 185 mph Sustained winds would be like..and probably some Higher gusts..just imagine the tornado;'s That would throw off..me?..id be running for the hills Way before it ever got to me...there's no sticking THAT one out huh..
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Not to mention the fact that we were probably outside playing. Nevermind. :)

Quoting 208. scott39:
Me either... Only 3 TV channels. No internet. No 24 hour news ect... :)
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watch out Scott..when Xulonn lashes on to you, its hard to shake him off..he only sees your posts right now..

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98L

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So, I looked up the definition of the term (my last take on this, sorry for off-topic), I did not know this though:

Murder: A flock of crows.

Now we just need someone to be wrong on a forecast...

On-topic:

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98 is going to fall apart..says GFS.
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PART I:- STORM WARNING

PART II :-

THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM, PHAILIN OVER EAST CENTRAL BAY OF
BENGAL MOVED NORTHWEST WARDS, INTENSIFIED INTO A VERY SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM AND LAY CENTRED AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY THE
10TH OCTOBER 2013 WITHIN HALF A DEGREE OF LATITUDE 15.0ON AND
LONGITUDE 90.5OE(.) IT MOVED NORTH WEST WARDS SLIGHTLY
INTENSIFIED FURTHER AND LIES CENTERED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY
THE 10 TH OCT. 2013, WITHIN OF A DEGREE OF LAT 15.5 DEG N
AND LONG. 90.0 DEG E, ABOUT 650 KMS SOUTHEAST OF PARADIP,
700 KMS SOUTHEAST OF GOPALPUR AND 700 KMS EASTSOUTHEAST
OF KALINGAPATNAM.(.) IT WOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS
AND CROSS NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH AND ODISHA COAST BETWEEN
KALINGPATNAM AND PARADIP, CLOSE TO GOPALPUR (ODISHA) BY
EVENING 12TH OCTOBER, 2013 AS A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STROM
WITH A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 175-185 KMPH(.)



02B/MH/P/C5
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 189 Comments: 59031
Typhoon 02B

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 OCT 2013 Time : 190000 UTC
Lat : 15:37:55 N Lon : 89:18:32 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 924.6mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 7.0 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : +8.1C Cloud Region Temp : -79.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 82km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Name : MET7
Satellite Viewing Angle : 41.2 degrees


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Quoting 252. scott39:
Its not hard to understand that hurricanes dont MURDER people....Sheesh


Yup
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so some models are developing a system in the caribbean 5-7 days specifically the FIM and another gfs ensemble anyone have more info on where this would go or the conditions for it to develop around that time?

EDIT- should have also asked does it have anything to do with 98L?
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Quoting 250. PalmBeachWeather:
I love the first day when I can walk outside and say.AAHHHHH
oh yeah..i remember one year it seemed summer went all the way to almost xmas..gee.
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Quoting 224. NCstu:


*cough cough* Wilma *cough cough*


*cough cough* Wilma and Gilbert *cough *cough*
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Its not hard to understand that hurricanes dont MURDER people....Sheesh
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Quoting 243. scott39:
When is the MJO going to be in the Atlantic?


In late october I think
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Quoting 244. LargoFl:
LOL..it felt Wonderful as I walked my dogs before sunrise..gee ive waited all summer long for this..too bad its still mid to upper 80's in the daytime..cant wait for the 70's to get here.
I love the first day when I can walk outside and say.AAHHHHH
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I want my storm sooo muchhhhh :-)
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looks good for maybe a few wet days for texas,they sure need the rain.
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Quoting 240. HeinrichFrogswatter:


Get a dictionary clown

verb

verb: murder; 3rd person present: murders; past tense: murdered; past participle: murdered; gerund or present participle: murdering

1. kill (someone) unlawfully and with premeditation
Ok Hein...We get the point
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Quoting 226. HeinrichFrogswatter:


"Murder"? I know a lot of people around here want to anthropomorphize storms ("she's really trying to get her act together, etc), but since most commonly held definitions of murder require premeditation and/or malice, I think that is a bit of a stretch.


I wasn't intending on anthropomorphize Mitch, just looking for a word more descriptive than "kill". I understand the legal ramifications of the word as it would be used in a court, no need for a lecture.
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Quoting 238. PalmBeachWeather:
Brrrr.. Had a low of 74 here this morning
LOL..it felt Wonderful as I walked my dogs before sunrise..gee ive waited all summer long for this..too bad its still mid to upper 80's in the daytime..cant wait for the 70's to get here.
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When is the MJO going to be in the Atlantic?
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Dr. Masters has shown a willingness to update his blog with new information provided by his readers if such information can be sourced and confirmed. But sheesh, when I was young I learned that when you're in someone else's "house" you show a little decorum.

Kids these days...
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Jeanne

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 14 Comments: 7805
Quoting 230. scott39:
Coca Cola?


LOL! I would hope.
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Quoting 201. K8eCane:
Hello CyberWeatherWorld

Its downright cold here in wilmington NC
Brrrr.. Had a low of 74 here this morning
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Hopefully Phailin's area of heavy rain will not move too far north towards Bangladesh...It's geography is very flat & low, highly prone to severe floods. One of the most densely populated area of the world..It'd mean thousands of casualties..
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Wilma
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 14 Comments: 7805
Quoting 216. StormTrackerScott:


19,200 isn't high enough yes 11,000 confirmed but the other 8,000 were never seen again either buried alive or washed away.
And who knows, there might be another 1,000,000 missing and unaccounted for in the Bay of Bengal cyclones.

Dr. Masters used a set of published numbers. Perhaps we should stick to the same standard unless we have solid evidence to the contrary.

Otherwise we're just blithering.
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Quoting 212. ricderr:
So what do we have to go on other than imagery? Do they have weather buoys? Drones? Weather balloons? Typhoon hunters? Anything?




well...they actually do have some of those...but to answer your question...without that information if i had only imagery to go on...then i would have to state that i needed more information..not pull a guess out of thin air


Thought the question was fishy. The good ol' trap question. That's why I didn't answer, and the fact by satellite imagery only it's difficult to accurately ballpark an intensity. I think it's safe to say one can ballpark an intensity within 25 knots and be very accurate though with satellite imagery. You were asking people to pull a guess out of thin air though. Interesting way to make a good point.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
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oct 16th..some parts of texas might get 5 inches of rain next week..
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Quoting 226. HeinrichFrogswatter:


"Murder"? I know a lot of people around here want to anthropomorphize storms ("she's really trying to get her act together, etc), but since most commonly held definitions of murder require premeditation and/or malice, I think that is a bit of a stretch.


Unless storms have minds. Which they don't.
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Quoting 227. ricderr:
cough cough* Wilma *cough cough*


i snorted my coke....LMAO
Coca Cola?
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premeditation and/or malice



wrong on both counts....try again froggyman
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Bye bye hurricane season

I'm REALLY BORED AND TIRED WITH THE FISHES

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cough cough* Wilma *cough cough*


i snorted my coke....LMAO
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Increasing wind shear will more than likely finish 98L.
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224. NCstu
Quoting 211. StormTrackerScott:


They don't get anymore powerful than this folks.



*cough cough* Wilma *cough cough*
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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
202 PM AST THU OCT 10 2013

PRC005-071-099-131-102100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0312.131010T1802Z-131010T2100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z .OO/
MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-AGUADILLA PR-ISABELA PR-
202 PM AST THU OCT 10 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN...AGUADILLA AND ISABELA

* UNTIL 500 PM AST

* AT 200 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO WITH VERY HEAVY RAINS MOVING TO THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH. UP TO TWO INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN IN
PARTS OF ISABELA AND ANOTHER ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT THREE HOURS. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING IN URBAN
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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