Dangerous Tropical Cyclone Phailin Headed Towards India

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:09 PM GMT on October 09, 2013

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In the North Indian Ocean's Bay of Bengal, Tropical Storm Phailin has formed off the west coast of Thailand, and is moving west-northwest towards India at 8 mph. Satellite images show that Phailin is a medium-sized storm that is increasing in organization and intensity. Water temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, and the ocean heat content is very high, 80 - 100 kJ/cm^2--a level often associated with rapid intensification. With wind shear low, Phailin should be able to intensify into at least a Category 1 storm before landfall occurs near 12 UTC on Saturday, as predicted by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is predicting that Phailin may be able to intensify into a Category 3 storm before landfall. The 12Z Wednesday run of the HWRF model predicted that Phailin would peak as a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds at landfall on Saturday. The northeast coast of India where Phailin is expected to hit is vulnerable to high storm surges and is densely populated, so Phailin has the potential to be a very dangerous storm.


Figure 1. The great Odisha Cyclone of 1999 at landfall on October 19, 1999 at 05:30 UTC, as seen by the Meteosat satellite. The cyclone hit the Indian state of Odisha (formerly called Orissa) near the city of Bhubaneswar as a Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds, killing 9,658 people and causing $2.5 billion in damage (1999 dollars). Image credit: NOAA.

India's tropical cyclone history
Only two Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones have hit India at hurricane strength since 2000. The most recent was Cyclone Thane,  which hit Southeast India on December 30, 2011, as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Thane killed 48 people and did $250 million in damage. The most recent major tropical cyclone to hit India was the 1999 Odisha Cyclone, which hit Northeast India in the Indian state of Odisha (formerly called Orissa) near the city of Bhubaneswar as a Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds on October 29, 1999. The mighty storm, which had been at Category 5 strength with 160 mph winds and a 912 mb central pressure shortly before landfall, drove a storm surge of 26 feet (8 meters) onto the coast. The storm stalled just inland, dumping torrential rains on portions of India already saturated from the landfall of Category 4 Tropical Cyclone 04B just twelve days before. The catastrophe killed 9,658 people and left $2.5 billion in damage (1999 dollars), India's most expensive and fourth deadliest tropical cyclone in the past 100 years. Six other Indian tropical cyclones occurring before 1900 were deadlier; see wunderground's list of the 35 Deadliest Tropical Cyclones in World History. During the past two centuries, 42 percent of Earth's tropical cyclone-associated deaths have occurred in Bangladesh, and 27 percent have occurred in India (Nicholls et al., 1995.)

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a detailed post on India's tropical cyclone history.

References
Nicholls, R.J.N., N. Mimura, J.C. Topping, 1995, "Climate change in south and south-east Asia: some implications for coastal areas," J Glob Environ Eng 1995;1:137–54.

Little change to 98L in the Eastern Atlantic
A tropical wave (Invest 98L) located about 400 miles south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is headed west to west-northwest at about 5 - 10 mph. Satellite loops show that 98L has a small area of heavy thunderstorms with a modest amount of spin. The UKMET and GFS models develop the disturbance into a tropical depression late in the week, but the European model does not. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 30%, and 5-day odds of 40%. 98L's projected west-northwest track is expected take it near or just northeast of the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands around Wednesday October 16, according to the 00Z Wednesday morning runs of the GFS and European models.

Tropical Storm Nari headed towards the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Nari has formed east of the Philippines, and is expected to intensify into a Category 1 typhoon and make landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines this weekend, and in Vietnam next week. The GFS and European models predict that a new tropical storm will form east of the Philippines late this week, but recurve to the northeast and not threaten any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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866. Mountain55
10:15 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
So, with the hurricane season almost over, is Florida in the clear? I see nothing at all forming to give Florida issues.
Member Since: January 2, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2
865. Barkeep1967
6:56 AM GMT on October 11, 2013
Quoting 859. canyonboy:
Impressive number of records fell in So Cal yesterday:

... Lowest maximum temperature records broken or tied on Oct 09 2013 ...

Location new record old record period of record

Laguna Beach 65 66 in 1928 1928
Vista 63 67 in 1965 1957
Elsinore 62 64 in 1930 1897
Riverside 66 68 in 1931 1893
Ramona 61 68 in 1985 1974
alpine 56 62 in 1961 1952
El Cajon 64 69 in 1986 1979
big bear 42 48 in 1973 1960
Palomar Mountain 40 49 in 1949 1901
Palm Springs 72 76 in 1949 1906
thermal 76 78 in 1961 1950
Indio 73 74 in 1949 1894
Borrego 68 76 in 1973 1942




Be careful I just got a ban for doubting the Global warming witch hunt
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864. GatorWX
11:16 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3798
863. Neapolitan
3:25 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
Quoting 823. skycycle:
...and "thanks" to #813 for pointing out the obvious :/ I don't think anyone with a common sense and travelling experience here imagined Indians like you described them - the problem is that very often even 60-70mph tropical storms cause hundreds of deaths and serious damage in India, don't want to imagine what a monster like Phailin might do. In any developed country warnings and evacuations would be flying, India just does not have the infrastructure to sustain that kind of response - it has nothing to do with Internet cafes or support for foreign companies...
You're very welcome; I'm always happy to help.

Now, "Support for foreign companies"? I'm not sure what that has to do with anything. But the point of my comment was that, thanks to a healthy broadcast- and internet-based communications infrastructure--of which, yes, internet cafes are a part--you can best believe that the people in India do indeed know what's coming, and the ones that don't soon will. Yes, 1999's Odisha cyclone killed thousands--but in terms of the internet, 1999 was pre-history; coverage is vastly greater, so new travels much farther and faster now.

As I said in my first statement, Phailin will almost certainly be a destructive and deadly storm. But no one should allow a biased western point-of-view to lead them into thinking people in India are clueless as to what's coming.
Quoting 821. sdswwwe:
I think you have completely misjudged most comments here.
Stick around here for a while; you'll see what I mean... ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13803
862. 1900hurricane
3:22 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
Quoting 858. HadesGodWyvern:
According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T4.5. Intense to very intense convection is seen over east central bay and adjoining north Andaman sea islands and area between lat 13.0N to 16.5N and long 88.0E to 92.0E. The associated convection has increased gradually with respect to height and organization during past 3 hours. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -80C. The system is eye pattern. Eye is circular with diameter of about 15 km.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 75 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center. Phailin central pressure is 976 hPa

The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 18n and is providing poleward out flow in association with the anticyclonic circulation over central India. Hence upper level divergence is favorable for intensification. The low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity has increased during past 6 hours.. The sea surface temperature is about 28-29C and ocean thermal energy is about 80-100 kj/cm2. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind has decreased and is about 5-10 knots (low). The Madden-Jullian oscillation index is in phase 6 with amplitude greater than 1. Numerical weather prediction models suggest that Madden-Jullian oscillation would move to phase 7 during next 3 days

---
little more update from IMD from the Tropical Cyclone Outlook page.
I'm trying to figure out in what universe this yields a T# of 4.5...

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
861. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:22 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
860. weatherboy1251
3:21 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
Quoting 805. hydrus:
what kind of map is that called, hydrus? It looks like I could use it to help here in the atlantic.
Member Since: August 10, 2012 Posts: 1 Comments: 18
859. canyonboy
3:21 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
Impressive number of records fell in So Cal yesterday:

... Lowest maximum temperature records broken or tied on Oct 09 2013 ...

Location new record old record period of record

Laguna Beach 65 66 in 1928 1928
Vista 63 67 in 1965 1957
Elsinore 62 64 in 1930 1897
Riverside 66 68 in 1931 1893
Ramona 61 68 in 1985 1974
alpine 56 62 in 1961 1952
El Cajon 64 69 in 1986 1979
big bear 42 48 in 1973 1960
Palomar Mountain 40 49 in 1949 1901
Palm Springs 72 76 in 1949 1906
thermal 76 78 in 1961 1950
Indio 73 74 in 1949 1894
Borrego 68 76 in 1973 1942

Member Since: December 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 38
858. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:21 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T4.5. Intense to very intense convection is seen over east central bay and adjoining north Andaman sea islands and area between lat 13.0N to 16.5N and long 88.0E to 92.0E. The associated convection has increased gradually with respect to height and organization during past 3 hours. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -80C. The system is eye pattern. Eye is circular with diameter of about 15 km.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 75 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center. Phailin central pressure is 976 hPa

The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 18n and is providing poleward out flow in association with the anticyclonic circulation over central India. Hence upper level divergence is favorable for intensification. The low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity has increased during past 6 hours.. The sea surface temperature is about 28-29C and ocean thermal energy is about 80-100 kj/cm2. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind has decreased and is about 5-10 knots (low). The Madden-Jullian oscillation index is in phase 6 with amplitude greater than 1. Numerical weather prediction models suggest that Madden-Jullian oscillation would move to phase 7 during next 3 days

---
little more update from IMD from the Tropical Cyclone Outlook page.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47029
857. muddertracker
3:18 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
Quoting 848. hydrus:
Another huge natural disaster unfolding before our eyes..I am very thankful that there is nothing like phailin affecting us.


Absolutely. Death and destruction NOT needed. (And we don't have the $$ right now. Has FEMA been cut?) Instead of trailers, they could pass out card board boxes?) Downsize! LOL j/k
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
856. FunnelVortex
3:15 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
Quoting 853. Ameister12:
The JTWC may have upgraded Phailin to a category 3 (100 KT), but I still think that intensity is way to low. Phailin may be bordering on category 5 intensity right now.


This is Andrew-type RI we are seeing.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2893
855. 1900hurricane
3:15 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
Quoting 852. FunnelVortex:


Under what conditions would an anticyclonic TC form?
It doesn't, I was just trying to point out that he left out the word "Severe" in the term "Very Severe Cyclonic Storm" in a somewhat humorous fashion.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
854. Stoopid1
3:13 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
Quoting 849. GTstormChaserCaleb:
LOL well that was the point I was trying to make, everyone assumed I didn't know what I was talking about.


I see, I guess I focused on the initial statement you made. The Atlantic is beyond it's most active time frame now as the North Indian is in theirs. Season ain't over by no means but the conditions are different from the two basins. The likelihood of seeing a strong system in the ATL like Phailin is low at this point,. Not zero, but low.
Member Since: August 6, 2007 Posts: 24 Comments: 2755
853. Ameister12
3:13 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
The JTWC may have upgraded Phailin to a category 3 (100kt), but I still think that intensity is way to low. Phailin may be bordering on category 5 intensity right now (130kt perhaps)
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5085
852. FunnelVortex
3:13 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
Quoting 850. 1900hurricane:
As opposed to a very anticyclonic one? :P


Under what conditions would an anticyclonic TC form?
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2893
851. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:12 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #7
TROPICAL STORM SANTI
11:00 PM PhST October 10 2013
================================================= ==

Tropical Storm "SANTI" has slightly intensified as it continues to move west towards Aurora-Isabela area

At 10:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Santi [NARI] (982 hPa) located at 15.5N 125.9E or 410 km east of Baler, Aurora has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gustiness up to 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Signal Warnings
===============

Signal Warning #2

Luzon Region
-------------
1. Isabela
2. Aurora
3. Northern Quezon
4. Polilio Islands

Signal Warning #1

Luzon Region
-------------

1. Southern Cagayan
2. Kalinga
3. Abra
4. Mt. Province
5. Ilocos Sur
6. Ifugao
7. Beguet
8. La Union
9. Quirino
10. Nueva Vizcaya
11. Nueva Ecija
12. Pangasinan
13. Tarlac
14. Zambales
15. Bataan
16. Pampanga
17. Bulacan
18. Metro Manila
19. Rizal
20. Cavite
21. Laguna
22. Rest of Quezon
23. Camarines Provinces
24. Catanduanes

Additional Information
==========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 5.0-20.0 mm per hour (moderate to intense) within the 500 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Residents of in low lying and mountainous areas under signal #2 & #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under signal #2 are alerted against storm surges.

Sea travel is risky over the Eastern seaboard of northern Luzon and of Visayas.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47029
850. 1900hurricane
3:11 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
Quoting 842. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Actually compared to the last 3 seasons this one has been quiet up until this point.

2010: 8 depression/5 Cyclones/ 4 Severe Cyclone/ 2 Very Severe Cyclone



2011: 10 depression/ 6 deep depressions/ 2 Cyclonic Storms/ 1 Very Cyclonic Storm



2012: 5 depression/ 5 deep depressions/ 2 Cyclonic Storms



2013: 5 depressions/ 2 deep depressions/ 2 Cyclonic Storms/ 1 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

As opposed to a very anticyclonic one? :P
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
849. GTstormChaserCaleb
3:09 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
Quoting 845. Stoopid1:


This year has been pretty inactive yes, I was merely referring to the months when more activity can be expected in a given season.
LOL well that was the point I was trying to make, everyone assumed I didn't know what I was talking about.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
848. hydrus
3:08 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
Quoting 846. KingofNewOrleans:
JTWC has upgraded Phailin to 100 KT and expects 135 KT at landfall

Link
Another huge natural disaster unfolding before our eyes..I am very thankful that there is nothing like phailin affecting us.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22697
847. stormpetrol
3:05 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
I think 98L will become a TD later today.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
846. KingofNewOrleans
3:03 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
JTWC has upgraded Phailin to 100 KT and expects 135 KT at landfall

Link
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 116
845. Stoopid1
3:03 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
Quoting 842. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Actually compared to the last 3 seasons this one has been quiet up until this point.

2010: 8 depression/5 Cyclones/ 4 Severe Cyclone/ 2 Very Severe Cyclone



2011: 10 depression/ 6 deep depressions/ 2 Cyclonic Storms/ 1 Very Cyclonic Storm



2012: 5 depression/ 5 deep depressions/ 2 Cyclonic Storms



2013: 5 depressions/ 2 deep depressions/ 2 Cyclonic Storms/ 1 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm



This year has been pretty inactive yes, I was merely referring to the months when more activity can be expected in a given season.
Member Since: August 6, 2007 Posts: 24 Comments: 2755
844. stormpetrol
3:03 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
843. hydrus
3:02 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
25W
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22697
842. GTstormChaserCaleb
3:01 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
Quoting 827. Stoopid1:


They are in one of their more active TC formation periods right now since the monsoons have come to an end. May and October are usually the times when most storms form.
Actually compared to the last 3 seasons this one has been quiet up until this point.

2010: 8 depression/5 Cyclones/ 4 Severe Cyclone/ 2 Very Severe Cyclone



2011: 10 depression/ 6 deep depressions/ 2 Cyclonic Storms/ 1 Very Cyclonic Storm



2012: 5 depression/ 5 deep depressions/ 2 Cyclonic Storms



2013: 5 depressions/ 2 deep depressions/ 2 Cyclonic Storms/ 1 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
841. Tazmanian
3:01 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
Quoting 836. hurricanes2018:
I hope everyone looking modeles here.




why? there not point and no need two 98L has dry air and shear
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
840. 1900hurricane
2:58 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
Quoting 829. Torito:


Hopefully it soon starts an eyewall replacement cycle. that should knock the system down a bit..

Well, it's certainly not going to be shear or dry air that'll weaken Phailian. The atmosphere is saturated and the only shear in the vicinity is due to Phailian's own outflow.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
839. Bluestorm5
2:56 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
Quoting 832. Torito:


I really think they are underestimating this system.


I just realized that IMD is doing 3 minutes sustained winds which is big difference from 1 minute sustained that NHC do. Still might be little low, though...
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8075
838. ILwthrfan
2:56 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
Quoting 822. wxchaser97:
Phailin is looking violent. Raw T#'s from CIMSS ADT are approaching T7.0. This won't be a good situation at all for India.
Quoting 829. Torito:


Hopefully it soon starts an eyewall replacement cycle. that should knock the system down a bit..


No signs of an Eyewall replacement cycle yet, but that can change quickly. If it were to progress through an eye wall replacement cycle, it would help distribute a greater wind field over a greater area, but the extreme maximum winds around the center would weaken and try to re-organize. If this storm were to go through this it would only increase the storms overall area and increase it's ability to affect more people are larger geographic area. You'd just be trading one evil for another.
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1540
837. beell
2:56 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
Not exactly ancient history here.

From Dr. M.

Only two Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones have hit India at hurricane strength since 2000. The most recent was Cyclone Thane, which hit Southeast India on December 30, 2011, as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Thane killed 48 people and did $250 million in damage. The most recent major tropical cyclone to hit India was the 1999 Odisha Cyclone, which hit Northeast India in the Indian state of Odisha (formerly called Orissa) near the city of Bhubaneswar as a Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds on October 29, 1999. The mighty storm, which had been at Category 5 strength with 160 mph winds and a 912 mb central pressure shortly before landfall, drove a storm surge of 26 feet (8 meters) onto the coast. The storm stalled just inland, dumping torrential rains on portions of India already saturated from the landfall of Category 4 Tropical Cyclone 04B just twelve days before. The catastrophe killed 9,658 people and left $2.5 billion in damage (1999 dollars), India's most expensive and fourth deadliest tropical cyclone in the past 100 years. Six other Indian tropical cyclones occurring before 1900 were deadlier; see wunderground's list of the 35 Deadliest Tropical Cyclones in World History. During the past two centuries, 42 percent of Earth's tropical cyclone-associated deaths have occurred in Bangladesh, and 27 percent have occurred in India (Nicholls et al., 1995.)
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16923
836. hurricanes2018
2:56 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
I hope everyone looking modeles here.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 113 Comments: 106375
835. Stoopid1
2:55 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
Even 75kt at 3 minutes would translate to a maybe a minimal category 2. Yeah right, not buying it.
Member Since: August 6, 2007 Posts: 24 Comments: 2755
834. Bluestorm5
2:54 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
Quoting 830. HadesGodWyvern:
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM PHAILIN (BOB04-2013)
17:30 PM IST October 10 2013
======================================

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm in East central Bay of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Coast

At 12:00 PM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Phailin over east central Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards slightly intensified further and now lays center near 15.5N 90.0E, about 650 km southeast of Paradip, 700 km southeast of Gopalpur, and 700 km east southeast of Kalingapatnam.

It would continue to move northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast between
Kalingapatnam and Paradip, close to Gopalpur (Odisha) by Friday/Saturday as a very severe cyclonic storm with a sustained winds of 95-100 knots.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 70-75 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The state of the sea is high around the center.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 16.2N 88.2E - 85-90 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 17.0N 86.9E - 95-100 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 19.2N 85.0E - 95-100 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS: 21.2N 84.2E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)


Oh, it's 3 minutes sustained winds from IMD... anyhow, still maybe little higher is what I'm thinking.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8075
833. Bluestorm5
2:53 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
Who the heck is thinking Phailin is still that weak? IMD or JTWC? This is just dumb...
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8075
832. Torito
2:52 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
Quoting 830. HadesGodWyvern:
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM PHAILIN (BOB04-2013)
17:30 PM IST October 10 2013
======================================

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm in East central Bay of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Coast

At 12:00 PM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Phailin over east central Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards slightly intensified further and now lays center near 15.5N 90.0E, about 650 km southeast of Paradip, 700 km southeast of Gopalpur, and 700 km east southeast of Kalingapatnam.

It would continue to move northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast between
Kalingapatnam and Paradip, close to Gopalpur (Odisha) by Friday/Saturday as a very severe cyclonic storm with a sustained winds of 95-100 knots.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 70-75 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The state of the sea is high around the center.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 16.2N 88.2E - 85-90 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 17.0N 86.9E - 95-100 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 19.2N 85.0E - 95-100 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS: 21.2N 84.2E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)


I really think they are underestimating this system.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
831. hydrus
2:52 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22697
830. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:51 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM PHAILIN (BOB04-2013)
17:30 PM IST October 10 2013
======================================

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm in East central Bay of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Coast

At 12:00 PM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Phailin over east central Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards slightly intensified further and now lays center near 15.5N 90.0E, about 650 km southeast of Paradip, 700 km southeast of Gopalpur, and 700 km east southeast of Kalingapatnam.

It would continue to move northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast between
Kalingapatnam and Paradip, close to Gopalpur (Odisha) by Friday/Saturday as a very severe cyclonic storm with a sustained winds of 95-100 knots.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 70-75 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The state of the sea is high around the center.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 16.2N 88.2E - 85-90 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 17.0N 86.9E - 95-100 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 19.2N 85.0E - 95-100 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS: 21.2N 84.2E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47029
829. Torito
2:50 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
Quoting 828. hydrus:
This thing is growing by the second. I hope it weakens before landfall.


Hopefully it soon starts an eyewall replacement cycle. that should knock the system down a bit..
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
828. hydrus
2:49 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
Quoting 818. Torito:


This thing is growing by the second. I hope it weakens before landfall.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22697
827. Stoopid1
2:49 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
Quoting 808. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It has been a very quiet year in the North Indian Ocean, and now we have Phailin. Don't let your guard down in the Atlantic Ocean until the season is officially over.



Severe Cyclonic Storm Phailin is a tropical cyclone currently threatening the eastern coast of India. Originating from an area of low pressure over the Andaman Sea in early October 2013, Phailin slowly consolidated into a depression on October 8. The depression gained forward momentum and attained gale-force winds on October 9 and was designated as Cyclonic Storm Phailin, becoming the second storm of the season. Phailin is now forecasted to intensify further in the next two days, and make landfall over north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts at peak strength. IMD says that it would hit India's Eastern Coast on the night of October 12.[1]

The name Phailin, meaning a Sapphire, was given by Thailand.



They are in one of their more active TC formation periods right now since the monsoons have come to an end. May and October are usually the times when most storms form.
Member Since: August 6, 2007 Posts: 24 Comments: 2755
826. ILwthrfan
2:49 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
Quoting 822. wxchaser97:
Phailin is looking violent. Raw T#'s from CIMSS ADT are approaching T7.0. This won't be a good situation at all for India.


At least it's a very small compact storm at the moment.

Initially it's stating that 50 knot or greater winds are within 20 NM of the center, although those are more likely closer to 100 knots. It's windfield is forecasted to grow in coverage.
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825. Tropicsweatherpr
2:49 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
New TD 25W first forecast track. Is forecast to be a typhoon in 72 hours.

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824. Torito
2:45 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
823. skycycle
2:44 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
Thanks for the clarifications on Phailin, i guess just the IMD is very slow to respond to a very rapidly intensifying storm..

and "thanks" to #813 for pointing out the obvious :/ I don't think anyone with a common sense and travelling experience here imagined Indians like you described them - the problem is that very often even 60-70mph tropical storms cause hundreds of deaths and serious damage in India, don't want to imagine what a monster like Phailin might do. In any developed country warnings and evacuations would be flying, India just does not have the infrastructure to sustain that kind of response - it has nothing to do with Internet cafes or support for foreign companies...
Member Since: August 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 208
822. wxchaser97
2:44 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
Phailin is looking violent. Raw T#'s from CIMSS ADT are approaching T7.0. This won't be a good situation at all for India.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
821. sdswwwe
2:43 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
Quoting 813. Neapolitan:
As often happens when a storm threatens a non-American area, there are appearing here a lot of comments stating that those poor people don't know what's about to hit them. In my opinion, that's an unfairly provincial view.

In reality, while India is definitely overcrowded, and has pockets of deep poverty*, it's also a very technologically progressive country, with internet usage far higher than some may be giving it credit for. (Have you ever wondered why so many of the technical support numbers you call are answered by an Indian-accented voice?) There are newspapers, and TV and radio stations, and internet cafes, and tens of millions of web-connected devices. Not to mention, people have lived in the area for thousands of years, and they've experienced a lot as a culture.

In short, then, Phailin isn't going to "sneak" up on them unawares. Yes, the infrastructure isn't up to western standards in many places, so that's going to cause problems, as it sadly always does. And the Indian weather service does seem to be underestimating Phailin's strength at the moment (though I think the official warning of a "VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM" says a lot). I'm not in any way saying that Phailin won't be a very damaging and, probably, deadly storm. But despite what some seem to believe, India overall isn't peopled by uneducated, disconnected, paleolithic primitives huddled up in mud shacks who believe that they can do nothing as they're solely at the mercy of the elephant-riding, thunderbolt-tossing deity Indra; they're not too ignorant to shelter themselves from the wind and rain when they know a storm is coming.

* - As does the United States.


I think you have completely misjudged most comments here. The sentiment I am hearing is that they are seriously underestimating an incredibly dangerous storm and with hours ticking away for preparation. The fact that they have less infrastructure to deal with a major hurricane makes every hour even more important. If the NHC were toying around with people's lives like this, with a major hurricane 2 days away from hitting a heavy population you better believe people would be outraged and heads would be rolling.

(PS. India is a powerhouse in IT but this website it downright embarrassing... http://www.imd.gov.in/ )
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 90
820. Torito
2:41 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
NARDA HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS AND HAS DEGENERATED INTO A
REMNANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPORADIC AND LESS PERSISTENT.
ALSO...THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN BELOW WHAT WOULD BE
EXPECTED FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW COULD STILL OCCASIONALLY
GENERATE A FEW PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH SHEAR AND STABLE
AIR...IT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO WHILE IT DRIFTS
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
819. Torito
2:40 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
...NARDA DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 129.1W
ABOUT 1330 MI...2140 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NARDA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.1 WEST. THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH...6
KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE REMNANT LOW IS FOECAST TO DISSIPATE IN DAY OR TWO.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
818. Torito
2:39 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
Quoting 817. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Phailin may be nearing the upper ranges of the Category 4 threshold. That core is violent!

Beautiful cyclone. And a very dangerous cyclone.


Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
817. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:38 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
Phailin may be nearing the upper ranges of the Category 4 threshold. That core is violent!

Beautiful cyclone. And a very dangerous cyclone.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32858
816. Envoirment
2:37 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
Quoting 808. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It has been a very quiet year in the North Indian Ocean


I wouldn't necessarily say so. Tropcial cylcone activity tends to happen often in October/November/December, when the monsoon retreats. Plus, the North Indian Ocean tends to have lower activty than that of the Atlantic.
Member Since: June 16, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1026

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