98L in Eastern Atlantic no Threat; Typhoon Danas Takes Aim at Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:49 PM GMT on October 07, 2013

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A tropical wave (Invest 98L) located about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands is headed west-northwest at about 10 mph. Satellite loops show that 98L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms and spin. The UKMET model develops the disturbance into a tropical depression late in the week, but the GFS and European models do not. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 20%, and 5-day odds of 30%. 98L's projected track will take it into the Central Atlantic, where it is unlikely to threaten any land areas. The models are not showing any other threat areas, and the large-scale Atlantic conditions favor below-average chances of tropical storm formation for the next two weeks. These odds may rise by the last week of October and first week of November, when the MJO has a decent chance changing to a phase that will bring upward air motion to the Atlantic.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of 98L over the far Eastern Atlantic, taken at approximately 8:30 am EDT on October 7, 2013. The southernmost Cape Verde Islands are visible at upper right. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Danas takes aim at Japan
In the Pacific, impressive Typhoon Danas reached Category 4 status with 145 mph winds this morning as it passed just north of Okinawa, becoming the third strongest tropical cyclone on Earth so far in 2013. Only Super Typhoon Usagi (160 mph winds) and Super Typhoon Utor (150 mph winds) have been stronger. Danas has peaked in strength, and satellite loops show that wind shear has begun eating into the intense thunderstorms on the southwest portion of Danas' eyewall. Danas is expected to weaken to Category 2 strength as it recurves to the northeast and passes very close to Nagasaki, Japan around 12 UTC on Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Danas, taken at approximately 02 UTC on October 7, 2013. At the time, Danas had top winds of about 140 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Cyclone expected to form in the North Indian Ocean and threaten India
In India, where one of the longest monsoon seasons ever recorded is finally beginning to wane, atmospheric conditions over the North Indian Ocean are growing more conducive for the formation of tropical cyclones. The waters off the west coast of Thailand feature a large area of intense thunderstorms with a pronounced spin, as seen on satellite images. Both the GFS and European models predict that this disturbance will develop into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday, with the storm expected to track to the northwest and make landfall in Northeast India this weekend. This storm has the potential to intensify into a major storm capable of driving a dangerous storm surge onto the coast.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 140. MahFL:
NWS JAX bust forecast, was 60% heavy rain, now 40% showers....
well they had it at 50% by me..and about 3:30 this morning HUGE pouring rain woke me up as it came in off the gulf..after that it was off and on for awhile..just cloudy and breezy here,probably the rain is about done
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50561
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A very impressive, well-organized, storm in the WPAC. I'm not sure about the impacts of Fukishima.



I was hoping to see something like this in the Atlantic this year, but better luck next time.
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Quoting 143. calkevin77:


I hear ya. We had a couple of cooler fronts move through the past couple of weeks but the one that came through this weekend was a legit cold front for us. Most of us here get accustomed to when that first real one makes its way through and finally puts the heat to rest. I'm ready to move right into winter and hopefully get a few snow days this year. That happens out here usually every two or three years.
I miss seeing snow...one year long ago i was walking the dog and a 30 second blast of flurries..in 30 years thats the only snow i ever saw here by me.
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147. MahFL
Hmm, convection increasing south of TLH now, over the water.
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Regional forecast

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Excelent construction code.... Okinawa is used to typhoons....

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Quoting 139. LargoFl:
yeah its a bit early to cool down much here in florida..maybe this next front next week will reach us.


I hear ya. We had a couple of cooler fronts move through the past couple of weeks but the one that came through this weekend was a legit cold front for us. Most of us here get accustomed to when that first real one makes its way through and finally puts the heat to rest. I'm ready to move right into winter and hopefully get a few snow days this year. That happens out here usually every two or three years.
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Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 1:00 PM EDT Monday 7 October 2013
Condition:Partly Cloudy
Pressure:29.7 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:58.6°F
Dewpoint:48.2°F
Humidity:68%
Wind:WSW 20 gust 27 mph
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
DEC003-MDC015-PAC029-045-071730-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0111.131007T1705Z-131007T1730Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
105 PM EDT MON OCT 7 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN DELAWARE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHERN NEW CASTLE COUNTY IN NORTHERN DELAWARE...
NORTHERN CECIL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...
SOUTHERN CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 130 PM EDT

* AT 104 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THE STORM WAS NEAR BAY VIEW...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 55 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
FAIR HILL AND PLEASANT HILL AROUND 110 PM EDT...
KEMBLESVILLE AND GLEN WESTOVER AROUND 115 PM EDT...
LADENBERG AND NORTH STAR AROUND 120 PM EDT...
KENNETT SQUARE AND HOCKESSIN AROUND 125 PM EDT...
ELAM AND WESTTOWN AROUND 130 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A
STRONG BUILDING...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. WHILE
NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A TORNADO IS
SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50561
140. MahFL
NWS JAX bust forecast, was 60% heavy rain, now 40% showers....
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Quoting 137. calkevin77:


Ahh sorry bout that. All the "cold" was spent on us in Texas getting us out of the 90s as well. :) Guess its now just a front
yeah its a bit early to cool down much here in florida..maybe this next front next week will reach us.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50561
Very Active W Pac.... Danas Will deliver thousands of gallons of radioactive waters into the Pac from Fuku... Let the fishes glow at night in every supermarket....






Expected intensity

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Quoting 127. LargoFl:
cold front NOT going to do much with temps by me..just a few degree's lower from 90..we wait some more for the next one.


Ahh sorry bout that. All the "cold" was spent on us in Texas getting us out of the 90s as well. :) Guess its now just a front
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136. flsky
Quoting 131. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Why are you showing us this pic?
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Severe Thunderstorm Warning

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC011-029-091-071730-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0110.131007T1649Z-131007T1730Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1249 PM EDT MON OCT 7 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BERKS COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 130 PM EDT

* AT 1245 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SEVERE STORMS EXTENDED FROM
TERRE HILL TO WOODLAWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THESE STORMS
ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
PARKESBURG AND HONEY BROOK AROUND 1255 PM EDT...
NEW MORGAN AROUND 100 PM EDT...
BIRDSBORO AND WEST GROVE AROUND 105 PM EDT...
GLENMOORE AROUND 110 PM EDT...
KENNETT SQUARE AND DOWNINGTOWN AROUND 115 PM EDT...
LIONVILLE AND PUGHTOWN AROUND 120 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A
STRONG BUILDING...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. WHILE
NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A TORNADO IS
SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR.

&&


Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50561
Winds of up to 45mph were recorded at R.N.A.Now that it has passed through the tornado threat is down for my area.
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1255 PM EDT MON OCT 7 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CHENANGO COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...
DELAWARE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...
SOUTHWESTERN OTSEGO COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...
NORTHWESTERN SULLIVAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...
NORTHEASTERN LACKAWANNA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHEASTERN SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHERN WAYNE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 200 PM EDT.

* AT 1250 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SIDNEY CENTER...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
OTEGO BY 100 PM EDT...
WEST END BY 106 PM EDT...
ONEONTA BY 108 PM EDT...
EMMONS BY 110 PM EDT...
COLLIERSVILLE AND EAST MEREDITH BY 112 PM EDT...
COOPERSTOWN JCT BY 114 PM EDT...

WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT
1-888-603-1402...OR BY EMAIL AT BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50561

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no rain by me but getting a bit windy now.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50561
Thanks for the updates,
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cold front NOT going to do much with temps by me..just a few degree's lower from 90..we wait some more for the next one.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50561
Quoting 125. calkevin77:


Wow you'd think the 20th and 45th parallels have switched roles looking at that rainbow.
yeah sure does huh.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50561
Quoting 97. LargoFl:
no blob alert for the BOC huh...........


Wow you'd think the 20th and 45th parallels have switched roles looking at that rainbow.
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Quoting 120. Sfloridacat5:


Most people get excited about storms (hurricanes, T.S.) that could impact their area.
When we have a system that could impact Florida, the blog is full of people from Florida.
When a system looks like it could impact Texas, the blog is full of people from Texas.

A fish storm (even a strong hurricane) in the far Eastern Atlantic doesn't interest too many people becauses it not a threat to them. The same can be said for storms in the West Pac or East Pac.
You can have a super typhoon in the Westpac and the blog will be basically empty (with the exception of the regulars).

But to wish death and distruction on people (U.S.) as some members seem to do is very irresponsible and uncaring behavior to say the least.

We (the U.S.) have been very lucky this season. That is a good thing. The people wanting a major hurricane to stike the U.S. are most likely kids that don't fully understand the impact to life a property from such storms.
yes i agree with that..perhaps the asian folks have their own tropical weather blogs in their own languages also..but there ARE folks here at night that DO post about the Pacific storms,i see their posts when i log in early mornings.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50561
123. JRRP
Quoting LargoFl:
98 swims with the fish in this run................

see you never 98L
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Quoting 121. LargoFl:
98 swims with the fish in this run................


But if this run comes to happen it will get plenty of ACE units.
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98 swims with the fish in this run................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50561
Quoting 75. StormPro:


I really don't understand comments like this. Why not track those in the WPAC? Why wish for death and destruction in our basin? Isn't it enough that it happens to someone in the world? I just don't get what the difference is between watching one on the other side of the world or in your back yard. I'll take every season the way this one has been for CONUS.

Can you give me one valid reason? Anyone?


Most people get excited about storms (hurricanes, T.S.) that could impact their area.
When we have a system that could impact Florida, the blog is full of people from Florida.
When a system looks like it could impact Texas, the blog is full of people from Texas.

A fish storm (even a strong hurricane) in the far Eastern Atlantic doesn't interest too many people becauses it not a threat to them. The same can be said for storms in the West Pac or East Pac.
You can have a super typhoon in the Westpac and the blog will be basically empty (with the exception of the regulars).

But to wish death and distruction on people (U.S.) as some members seem to do is very irresponsible and uncaring behavior to say the least.

We (the U.S.) have been very lucky this season. That is a good thing. The people wanting a major hurricane to stike the U.S. are most likely kids that don't fully understand the impacts to life and property from such storms.
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Severe Weather, Tornado Threat for East

A strong cold front is making its way toward the eastern seaboard, bringing heavy rain, gusty wind, and the threat of severe weather. Tornado watches are posted from Maryland through central New York.

Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 149 Comments: 124691
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC011-025-077-089-095-071715-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0109.131007T1612Z-131007T1715Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1212 PM EDT MON OCT 7 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL BERKS COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHWESTERN LEHIGH COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
WESTERN MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
CARBON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
WEST CENTRAL NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 115 PM EDT

* AT 1207 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SEVERE STORMS EXTENDED FROM
TRESCKOW TO LAURELDALE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THESE STORMS
ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
WEATHERLY AND NESQUEHONING AROUND 1220 PM EDT...
NEW TRIPOLI AROUND 1225 PM EDT...
JIM THORPE AND LEHIGHTON AROUND 1230 PM EDT...
CHRISTMANS AND SCHNECKSVILLE AROUND 1235 PM EDT...
PALMERTON AND WALNUTPORT AROUND 1240 PM EDT...
PENN FOREST RESERVOIR AND MECKESVILLE AROUND 1245 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A
STRONG BUILDING...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50561
leaves will get a good swipe from the trees today

once the gusty winds kick in
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Quoting 114. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we are just getting the final push from the front dark here one more shower of rain then the wind for the rest of the day till after darkness falls
ok stay safe up there.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50561
Man I managed to calm down (somewhat) the past few weeks, but this year has once again burnt me because of that stupid EATL wave that wants to go into fishland too quickly.
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Quoting 111. LargoFl:
Yes Keeper..might be some wind damage up there today.
we are just getting the final push from the front dark here one more shower of rain then the wind for the rest of the day till after darkness falls
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yep 12z has it taking a jog north.........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50561
Quoting 109. Tropicsweatherpr:


That is because in this 12z run is stronger. More stronger is north and more weak is west.


If only it could wait until 55W before ramping up... like Jose and Tomas! It's october, so... normally the waves are supposed to develop further west and not in the EATL.
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Quoting 110. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
for the ne
winds gusting at times to 70 kmh
behind the front from the sw
backing too the nw later in the evening
and diminishing to 30 kmh

Yes Keeper..might be some wind damage up there today.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50561
for the ne
winds gusting at times to 70 kmh
behind the front from the sw
backing too the nw later in the evening
and diminishing to 30 kmh

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Quoting 103. CaribBoy:
6Z had it in the Windwards... now the 12Z puts it into fish land...

But it's maybe because the GFS forgot it's still 2013! I don't see how the pressure may fall as low as 998-995mb in 66-72hrs.


That is because in this 12z run is stronger. More stronger is north and more weak is west.
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Quoting 97. LargoFl:
no blob alert for the BOC huh...........


That means it must've been a jumper. NCEP has a track for it, though. It's holed up down S enough for the front to not engage it.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3383
Quoting 104. HuracandelCaribe:



Because is stronger. If it stays weaker for a longer time it has better chance of reaching our area.


:-)
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Why on earth waves CANNOT WAIT until 50w before developing and then head NORTH WEST!
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105. JRRP
Quoting LargoFl:
JR i dont see the 12z at 216 hours yet..maybe your site does?

nop... but just look at this
06z

12z

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Quoting 100. CaribBoy:


Unfortunately 12Z has it too far north :((((((((((((((



Because is stronger. If it stays weaker for a longer time it has better chance of reaching our area.
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6Z had it in the Windwards... now the 12Z puts it into fish land...

But it's maybe because the GFS forgot it's still 2013! I don't see how the pressure may fall as low as 998-995mb in 66-72hrs.
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102. MahFL
Pretty tight swirl:

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Quoting 95. JRRP:

Completely different


BORED
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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