Little Change to Karen; U.S. HIt By a Blizzard, Severe Weather, and Santa Ana Winds

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on October 04, 2013

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Tropical Storm Karen is proving resilient in the face of dry air and high wind shear, as the storm heads north-northwest at 10 mph towards Louisiana. A NOAA hurricane hunter plane is in the storm this morning, and found top surface winds near 60 mph and a central pressure of 1001 mb, a pressure 2 mb higher than on Thursday evening. NOAA buoy 42001 located about 60 miles (95 km) north-northeast of the center reported a sustained wind of 38 mph, gusting to 49 mph, at 8:45 am EDT. Satellite loops show that Karen has maintained a vigorous circulation this morning in the face of high wind shear of 25 knots from strong upper-level winds out of the west. These winds have driven dry air from the Western Gulf of Mexico into Karen's core, making it difficult for heavy thunderstorms to build on the west and south sides of Karen's center of circulation. Karen has a strong upper-level outflow channel to its north that is helping ventilate the storm, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). Ocean heat content is 20 - 40 kJ per square centimeter, which is fairly typical for this time of year, and does not increase the odds of rapid intensification. Strong southeasterly winds ahead of Karen are pushing tides about 1 - 1.5' above normal along most of the Louisiana and Mississippi coast, as seen on our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Karen, taken at approximately 3:30 pm EDT on October 3, 2013. At the time, Karen had top winds of 65 mph. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Brooding clouds from Tropical Storm Karen hover over the waters offshore of Cancun, Mexico, at 11 am EDT October 3, 2013. Image credit: Mindy Saylor.

Forecast for Karen
Wind shear for the next three days is expected to stay high, around 20 - 30 knots, according to the 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast. The atmosphere is quite dry over the Western Gulf of Mexico, and this dry air combined with high wind shear will retard development, making only slow intensification possible until landfall. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will bring higher wind shear near 30 knots and turn Karen more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Saturday. The higher shear, combined with ocean temperatures that will drop to 28°C, may be able to induce weakening, and NHC has sharply reduced its odds of Karen achieving hurricane strength. The 5 am EDT Friday wind probability forecast from NHC put Karen's best chance of becoming a hurricane as a 23% chance on Sunday at 2 am EDT. This is down from the 41% odds given in Thursday afternoon's forecast. Most of the models show Karen intensifying by 5 - 10 mb on Saturday afternoon and evening as the storm nears the coast, as the storm interacts with the trough of low pressure turning it to the northeast. This predicted intensification may be because of stronger upper-level outflow developing (due to diverging winds aloft sucking up more air from the surface.) We don't have much skill making hurricane intensity forecasts, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Karen do the opposite of what the models predict, and decay to a weak tropical storm just before landfall, due to strong wind shear. In any case, residents of New Orleans should feel confident that their levee system will easily withstand any storm surge Karen may generate, as rapid intensification of Karen to a Category 3 or stronger hurricane has a only a minuscule probability of occurring (1% chance in the latest NHC forecast.)

Since Karen is expected to make a sharp course change to the northeast near the time it approaches the south coast of Louisiana, the models show a wide range of possible landfall locations. The European and UKMET models are the farthest west, with a landfall occurring west of New Orleans. The GFS model is at the opposite extreme, showing a landfall about 400 miles to the east, near Apalachicola, Florida. NHC is splitting the difference between these extremes, which is a reasonable compromise. Most of Karen's heavy thunderstorms will be displaced to the east by high wind shear when the storm makes landfall, and there will likely be relatively low rainfall totals of 1 - 3" to the immediate west of where the center. Much higher rainfall totals of 4 - 8" can be expected to the east. NHC's 5 am EDT Friday wind probability forecast shows the highest odds of tropical storm-force winds to be at the tip of the Mississippi River at Buras, Louisiana: 66%. New Orleans, Gulfport, Mobile, and Pensacola have odds ranging from 47% - 51%.

Most significant fire threat for Southern California in the past 5 years
A Santa Ana wind event is building over Southern California this morning, where wind gusts in excess of 50 mph have already been observed this morning. From the Los Angeles NWS office:

"Most significant fire weather threat across Southern California in past 5 years as strong Santa Ana wind event unfolds. In addition to the strength of winds being projected...the concerns with this event include the widespread nature and long duration of Santa Ana winds...very long period of single digit humidities...and extremely dry fuels approaching record levels. Red flag warnings are in effect for much of Los Angeles and Ventura counties overnight into Sunday. The onset of the offshore winds are expected to begin across the mountains by late evening...then descend into the lower elevations overnight. The peak of this Santa Ana wind event will likely be late tonight through Saturday morning...with the strongest winds focused across Los Angeles and Ventura counties."


Figure 3. A moderate risk for severe weather is predicted for this afternoon over Iowa and surrounding states.

A blizzard and a severe weather outbreak in the Midwest
The same low pressure system that is expected to turn Tropical Storm Karen to the northeast this weekend is hammering the Midwest with a variety of extreme weather today. Blizzard warnings are flying in Wyoming, Nebraska, and South Dakota from the storm, and a significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes is expected over much of Iowa this afternoon. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has done some research to see the last time a blizzard, major severe weather outbreak, tropical storm, and extreme fire danger all threatened the U.S. at the same time, and has not been able to find such an event in past history.

Portlight disaster relief charity ready to respond to Karen
The Portlight.org disaster relief charity, founded and staffed by members of the wunderground community, are ready to respond to Tropical Storm Karen, if they are needed. You can check out their progress on the Portlight Blog or donate to Portlight's disaster relief fund at the portlight.org website.

I'll have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Portlight volunteers at Biloxi shelter (Portlight)
Portlight volunteers at Biloxi shelter

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818. WxLogic
10:06 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Based on the HH passes, Karen is under a weak steering flow which likely signals a transition from a N/NW movement to a N/NE type movement in the next 24 to 48 hours... IMO.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4978
817. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9:54 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54639
816. Xyrus2000
8:48 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
I guess my opinion from this morning didn't totally suck. The latest NHC track appears to be following the track I thought it would, though they seem to take it a bit further east on the second "landfall" after clipping LA.

I don't think Karen will get tugged quite that hard to the east. I still think the second landfall will be slightly further west inside Mississippi around Pascagoula. I'm also pretty much convinced that at best it will be a strong tropical storm, but more likely it will be a moderate one. There won't be enough time in a low shear environment, and by the time she gets there she'll be sucking in dry continental air as well.

Just my opinion though. Most likely I will be completely wrong. :)
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815. Patrap
8:43 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128879
814. ih8hurricanes
8:42 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Karen has looked a lot, to me, like a typical June storm. The activity is all on the east side and it has just never gotten wrapped around the COC.

I wonder if the movement of that front from TX will be as fast as predicted. If not, as someone suggested it might not be, then wouldn't that mean a much later turn to the NE?

Thanks.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 14
813. Scenary
8:42 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Oh. its horrible.. :O
Member Since: November 2, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1
812. Scenary
8:40 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Its a good news that tropical Storm Karen is getting weaker because its struggling against wind shear. :)
Member Since: November 2, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1
811. LAnovice
8:37 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Nice to see the models in better agreement. Since a storm (not to be named) was forecasted to land elsewhere for days - some of us get nervous with models that don't agree - not that Karen is a strong threat - just caused us (well me actually) to question and stay glued to the news/coordinates etc. Mostly the NHC has been almost spot on in the years since with landfall... But am still watching - until landfall....
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 361
810. Mat034
8:37 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Is Karen reforming in another area or anything at all?
Member Since: October 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 13
809. captainhunter
8:34 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Popping in out of lurk mode to say thanks for all the good info on Karen. Keeping a close watch here in PCB and will post pics if we get any weather out of it. Back to lurking..
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 430
808. Tribucanes
8:32 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
The LLCOC is still clearly pretty vigorous and the main body of convection and mid level circulation has been pulling east of the LLCOC again after moving closer together earlier. No clear signs of the COC dying off and reforming under the MLC. Looks like this is going to remain a sheared mess with the COC staying alive and west of the growing body of convection, likely until landfall. Could we instead see a competing COC form under the MLC? Just this has been decoupled now for 14 plus hours and the LLCOC hasn't weakened much.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
807. WalkingInTheSun
8:32 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Quoting 785. daddyjames:


Not yet ;)


Well, surely GW must be causing all that dry air in the W GOM that is interferring with Karen, huh? :~o
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1299
806. catastropheadjuster
8:31 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
I'm just wondering been at work all day and trying to figure out what Karen is up to. I am from Satsuma,Al right outside of Mobile, Al are we still gonna get anything from her? I have drank a few Bushwackers from the Whistle Stop and really just trying to figure things out if someone could help out a little. Thank you in advanced...

sheri
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3678
805. weathermanwannabe
8:30 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Quoting 801. Drakoen:
Center reforming could make things interesting, especially since its reforming to the southeast which once again delay poleward movement.


Hey Drak. Any delay is some more time over the water but I am not seeing "it" unless the sheer drops off and there is something for the extra time to work with.

Very frustrating is the word for all concerned; we are normally dealing with more robust systems in this general location. These "weebles wobble but they don't fall down" ones are a pain............. :)
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9267
804. ricderr
8:29 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
How cool for you guys? We're to get a taste of "late fall/early winter" tomorrow.


a high of only 72 tomorrow and a low of 48 early sun morning......

now iffn that front should slow....well....easterly push is gonna slow too.......waiting for the 5 o clock report to see if they still think it will pan out
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 674 Comments: 21772
803. daddyjames
8:28 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Quoting 801. Drakoen:
Center reforming could make things interesting, especially since its reforming to the southeast which once again delay poleward movement.


Ahh, so I wasn't necessarily too far out on that limb ;)
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
802. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
8:27 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
801. Drakoen
8:27 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Center reforming could make things interesting, especially since its reforming to the southeast which once again delay poleward movement.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30578
800. sunlinepr
8:26 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Bourbon street WebCam... What about having a Hurricane?

Link
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799. VR46L
8:26 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Quoting 775. WalkingInTheSun:


Oh no, NOT the ignore!!!! Ahhhhh!!!
Hah -- ignore list never stops me from giving my 2 cents. :-))
Btw, speaking of all that, did anyone mention whether all that is happening with Karen is related to GW? (listening intently)


Urgh Iggy Lists ...

And stirrer on GW :p

(Can hear the keyboard banging and feel the extra WV created by the CO2 about to be burned ;))
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6933
798. daddyjames
8:26 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Quoting 795. ricderr:
Yup local mets said from 4pm-8pm things would fire up. Hopefully the front (the one mlc keeps referring to) will push through quick enough to prevent anything - except for hail - to spin up here in OK.


little bit of talk here by the west texas mets that the front may not move through as fast as predicted...bringing us cooler weather longer than predicted....


How cool for you guys? We're to get a taste of "late fall/early winter" tomorrow.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
797. TallyMike
8:26 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Quoting 735. LargoFl:
here's an excerpt............A state of emergency is a governmental declaration which usually suspends a few normal functions of the executive, legislative and judicial powers, alerts citizens to change their normal behaviors, or orders government agencies to implement emergency preparedness plans. It can also be used as a rationale for suspending rights and freedoms, even if those rights and freedoms are guaranteed under the constitution. A government would normally declare a state of emergency during a time of natural or man-made disaster, during a period of civil unrest, or following a declaration of war or situation of international or internal armed conflict. Justitium is its equivalent in Roman law.

In some states,it also suspends weight limits on trucks to move supplies, harvest veggies and fruits to market, sets in motion anti- gouging laws, makes it possible to restrict alcohol sales, implement curfews, activate National guard etc.
Member Since: July 13, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 70
796. WalkingInTheSun
8:25 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Quoting 757. Tygor:
I'm honestly not sure what the fuss has been on here the last couple days, beyond people wishcasting this thing to get much stronger and to hit Florida. Looks like it will remain a non-dangerous storm with copious amounts of rainfall, but nothing these areas can't handle.


UNbeliever!!!
How dare you deny the inevitable fury of the chosen few who could get it right this season!
Don't you BELIEVE this storm is secretly waiting to catch the people offguard just prior to going RI, turning along the coast, turning again,...then again....and slamming Cuba as a Cat 5, then migrating up North as superstorm Karen, making the East Coast tremble in fear, before smashing Novia Scotia so hard that part of it falls off into the sea? -- Oh, um, well, honestly,...me neither. :-o
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1299
795. ricderr
8:24 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Yup local mets said from 4pm-8pm things would fire up. Hopefully the front (the one mlc keeps referring to) will push through quick enough to prevent anything - except for hail - to spin up here in OK.


little bit of talk here by the west texas mets that the front may not move through as fast as predicted...bringing us cooler weather longer than predicted....
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 674 Comments: 21772
794. whitewabit (Mod)
8:24 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Just a reminder ..

It would be advisable for everyone to read Dr Masters "Rules of the Road" ..

Moderators will be enforcing them as we have a named storm .. keep your comments on Weather ..

Sniping will not be tolerated ..

sniping - To make malicious, underhand remarks or attacks.

The blog will be quite busy today .. if you would like to continue to blog follow those rules ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 364 Comments: 31616
793. Tropicsweatherpr
8:24 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Quoting 786. SLU:


Absolutely


You are right.

URNT12 KWBC 042016
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL122013
A. 04/19:57:17Z
B. 25 deg 47 min N
090 deg 10 min W
C. 700 mb 3137 m
D. 46 kt
E. 357 deg 4 nm
F. 105 deg 36 kt
G. 357 deg 23 nm
H. EXTRAP 1002 mb
I. 14 C / 2438 m
J. 17 C / 2436 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 7
O. 1 / 1 nm
P. NOAA2 0912A KAREN OB 05
MAX FL WIND 36 KT 357/23 19:50:25Z
MSLP EXTRAP FROM 8000 FT
CENTER SONDE SPLASHED WITH 1006 MB WINDS 080/50 KTS
SURFACE CENTER REFORMING IN CONVECTION SSE OF CTR
CENTER SST 28.7C FROM AXBT
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14414
792. JrWeathermanFL
8:24 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
When I saw the weird wind shift shown by recon and the center moving SSW.....
could just be horrible disorganization but it'd be bertter if the center reformed under the MLC for the storms sake.
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 12 Comments: 2459
791. Beachfoxx
8:23 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Wabit, Moonlight??

Any old timwrs here??

In Europre, spotty internet... Trying to get good idea of what is predicted for Destin???

We think neighbors removed canvas from boat, that is really all we would need done if serious threat headed our way - we usually remain reafy.

However, it is difficult to keep up with news and WX when traveling.

Any new would be appreciated. 💙💙💙

Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 29384
790. weathermanwannabe
8:23 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
I am going to wait for next updates for NHC, and recon reports, before making any more conclusions at this point. Using the old "ruler on computer screen and pencil point" method (on the hi-res vis loops), I have determined that the COC has moved very little over the past few hours and tops of the displaced convection continues to be blown away to the east away from the coc.

Convection is still trying to fire near the coc but the storm is quickly losing the battle, at the moment, with the sheer and dry air. It looks much worse at the moment than it did 3 hours ago to my eyes
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9267
789. daddyjames
8:22 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Quoting 781. Doppler22:


Yup local mets said from 4pm-8pm things would fire up. Hopefully the front (the one mlc keeps referring to) will push through quick enough to prevent anything - except for hail - to spin up here in OK.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
788. LargoFl
8:21 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
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787. calkevin77
8:20 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Quoting 755. LargoFl:
at least we had a storm to follow track and guess about for a few days..sure beats last few weeks in here huh.


I like to think of it as group therapy sometimes.
Member Since: June 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 864
786. SLU
8:19 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Quoting 780. allancalderini:
Her last shot to mantain strength or strength a little bit more.


Absolutely
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5282
785. daddyjames
8:19 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Quoting 775. WalkingInTheSun:


Oh no, NOT the ignore!!!! Ahhhhh!!!
Hah -- ignore list never stops me from giving my 2 cents. :-))
Btw, speaking of all that, did anyone mention whether all that is happening with Karen is related to GW? (listening intently)


Not yet ;)
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
784. LargoFl
8:18 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 539
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
240 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

TORNADO WATCH 539 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NEC003-011-021-023-025-027-037-039-043-051-053-05 5-067-095-097-
107-109-119-127-131-133-139-141-147-151-153-155-1 59-167-173-177-
179-050300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0539.131004T1940Z-131005T0300Z/

NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANTELOPE BOONE BURT
BUTLER CASS CEDAR
COLFAX CUMING DAKOTA
DIXON DODGE DOUGLAS
GAGE JEFFERSON JOHNSON
KNOX LANCASTER MADISON
NEMAHA OTOE PAWNEE
PIERCE PLATTE RICHARDSON
SALINE SARPY SAUNDERS
SEWARD STANTON THURSTON
WASHINGTON WAYNE
$$


ATTN...WFO...OAX...FSD
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783. Drakoen
8:18 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Karen looks like she's slow down some and still east of her forecast points according to the latest vortex message.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30578
782. HurricaneAndre
8:18 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Quoting 764. LAbonbon:
Finally, these are all updated. Shows Karen, the coast, and the timing of the turn differently than earlier.









Here's the Loop
That' sa path change.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 3212
781. Doppler22
8:17 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3783
780. allancalderini
8:16 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Quoting 774. SLU:
Karen's center could be reforming further east under the deep convection.

Her last shot to mantain strength or strength a little bit more.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4410
779. LAbonbon
8:16 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Quoting 769. moonlightcowboy:


T H A N K You! This clearly shows the "front"!


I'd been waiting for the full 'suite' showing the turn to be updated. 2 or so come out at a time, then there's a delay of hours for the others. The ones showing the turn were part of the 'lag'. Any idea why there's such a delay? Figure it has to do w/ timing of different model runs, but honestly don't know...

If posted w/o the turn, then folks in central/western LA could worry for nothing :/
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778. redwagon
8:16 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Quoting 748. fmbill:


You mean as in falling apart? Arc clouds, high upper level winds, no dicernable circulaiton..


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777. whitewabit (Mod)
8:15 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 19:52Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 12L in 2013
Storm Name: Karen (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 19:31:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°45'N 90°13'W (25.75N 90.2167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 292 miles (470 km) to the S (182°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,462m (4,797ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 47kts (~ 54.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the ESE (102°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 188° at 36kts (From the S at ~ 41.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the ESE (106°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph) which was observed 83 nautical miles (96 statute miles) to the NE (36°) from the flight level center at 17:29:30Z
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 364 Comments: 31616
776. LargoFl
8:15 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Quoting 772. JrWeathermanFL:
One lone model that stands out that's pointing Karen to Cedar Key.
What's its deal. Don't come here!
only thing one can say..listen to and heed your local warnings,but your right..northern florida doesnt need the rains...would have been wonderful if went to dry texas.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39732
775. WalkingInTheSun
8:15 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Quoting 766. daddyjames:


Come on, we can't have a discussion without feeling offended?

Please, nothing personal is intended by it. Your statement this morning was not clear.

ignore if you feel you must.


Oh no, NOT the ignore!!!! Ahhhhh!!!
Hah -- ignore list never stops me from giving my 2 cents. :-))
Btw, speaking of all that, did anyone mention whether all that is happening with Karen is related to GW? (listening intently)
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1299
774. SLU
8:14 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Karen's center could be reforming further east under the deep convection.

Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5282
773. LargoFl
8:14 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39732
772. JrWeathermanFL
8:13 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
One lone model that stands out that's pointing Karen to Cedar Key.
What's its deal. Don't come here!
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 12 Comments: 2459
771. WalkingInTheSun
8:12 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Quoting 741. LargoFl:
for now yes,we'll see if the sheer relaxes tonight..what she will look like tomorrow morning..could be less could be a bit stronger..we'll see..all of the models said nothing was going to happen today


Recent peek at IR loop seems to show the overall coverage area of the storm is getting slowly larger, with more influx of moisture from southerly areas.
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1299
770. Patrap
8:11 PM GMT on October 04, 2013

20:05:00Z 27.033N 91.667W 842.9 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,585 meters
(~ 5,200 feet) 1011.7 mb
(~ 29.88 inHg) - From 74° at 20 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 23.0 mph) 16.3°C
(~ 61.3°F) 15.9°C
(~ 60.6°F) 21 knots
(~ 24.1 mph) 9 knots*
(~ 10.3 mph*) 0 mm/hr*
(~ 0 in/hr*) 8.6 knots* (~ 9.9 mph*)
42.9%*
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 19:55:30Z (first observation), the observation was 238 miles (384 km) to the SSW (198°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.

At 20:05:00Z (last observation), the observation was 221 miles (356 km) to the S (174°) from Lafayette, LA, USA.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128879
769. moonlightcowboy
8:11 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Quoting 764. LAbonbon:
Finally, these are all updated. Shows Karen, the coast, and the timing of the turn differently than earlier.









Here's the Loop


T H A N K You! This clearly shows the "front"!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
768. LargoFl
8:11 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39732

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.