Tropical Storm Karen Forms in the Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on October 03, 2013

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Hurricane Watches are flying along the U.S. Gulf Coast as Tropical Storm Karen heads north-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Karen, the eleventh named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, formed about 8 am EDT Thursday in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. It's not often that one sees a new storm start out with 60 mph sustained winds, but that's what an Air Force hurricane hunter plane found this morning near 7:30 am EDT, when they sampled the northern portion of the storm. A ship located about 50 miles northeast of the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula measured sustained winds of 51 mph near the same time. Satellite loops show that Karen is a medium-sized storm with an area of very intense thunderstorms along its northern and eastern flanks. Wind shear has risen since Wednesday, and is now a moderately high 20 knots, thanks to strong upper-level winds out of the west-southwest. These strong winds are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the west side of Karen's center of circulation, by driving dry air that is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Western Gulf of Mexico into Karen's core. As a result, Karen has a lopsided comma-shape on satellite imagery. Karen has a strong upper-level outflow channel to its north that is helping ventilate the storm, though, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). Between 7 am and 9:30 am EDT the Hurricane Hunters made three passes though the center of Karen, and the central pressure stayed roughly constant at 1004 mb, so Karen is not undergoing much change.


Figure 1. Odds of receiving more than 4" of rain over a five-day period beginning at 2 am EDT Thursday October 3, 2013, as predicted by the experimental GFDL ensemble model.

Forecast for Karen
Wind shear will steadily increase as the storm heads north-northwest, and shear will reach a high 25 knots by Saturday morning as Karen closes in on the U.S. Gulf Coast, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. The atmosphere will grow drier as Karen moves into the Northern Gulf of Mexico, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making only slow intensification likely through Friday. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn Karen more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday evening and Saturday morning. The higher shear at that time should be able to induce weakening, and the 8 am EDT Thursday wind probability forecast from NHC gave a 28% chance Karen will be a hurricane at 2 am EDT Saturday, down from 44% on Friday afternoon. Most of the models predict landfall will occur along the western Florida Panhandle Saturday afternoon or evening. The usually reliable European model has Karen making landfall over Eastern Louisiana, though. If Karen does follow this more westerly path, the storm will be weaker, since there is more dry air and higher wind shear to the west. Since almost all of Karen's heavy thunderstorms will be displaced to the east by high wind shear, there will be relatively low rainfall totals of 1 - 3" to the immediate west of where the center makes landfall. Much higher rainfall totals of 4 - 8" can be expected to the east. To judge the possibilities of receiving tropical storm-force winds at your location, I recommend using the NHC wind probability forecast. The highest odds of tropical storm-force winds (45 - 55%) are along the coast from Buras, Louisiana, to Pensacola, Florida.

I'll have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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927. flewhuey
1:44 PM GMT on October 05, 2013
At WunderMap, the storm track, which I find very informative, does not correspond to the satellite view. One or both are not in register, so the conflict results in there being no valid information presented. Anyone know why this is? Is there a fix?
Member Since: December 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
926. Pcola32507
10:22 AM GMT on October 04, 2013
Well than there really is no need for Cantore to be in Pcola Beach because at this rate it isnt goin to be around by tom morning!!
Member Since: August 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
925. snotly
1:02 AM GMT on October 04, 2013
Why atmosphere so dry?
Member Since: August 27, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 683
924. Jedkins01
12:29 AM GMT on October 04, 2013
Quoting 443. Neapolitan:
As most would agree, all other things being equal, higher TCHP is more conducive to TC development than lower TCHP--and Karen is moving from an area with the highest TCHP in the entire Atlantic (greater than 100 kJ) to a strip of the lowest TCHP in the GOM (less than 30 kJ). Yes, TCHP is far from the only factor in TC development. But there's not much energy ahead for our girl, and when combined with the shear and dry air, things don't look good...

tchp


Well, the thing is, TCHP is hard to apply for the gulf properly because its already a shallow body of water. TCHP never looks as good in the gulf simply because there is less water, but that doesn't mean it cannot support a violent hurricane. In fact, as many RI events that have occurred in the gulf recently such as Charley, Katrina, and Rita, I probably don't need to explain that any further.

In fact I think it would be reasonable to suggest that a body of water like the gulf may even be the best place for hurricane intensification because its relatively shallow depth means much of its volume of water is quite warm well into its depths.

Not to say that isn't the case for the Caribbean, it is there as well, but TCHP in the Caribbean looks more impressive on the map simply because it is deeper there and since warm waters reach a great depth, it deceivingly looks like the gulf isn't very impressive in comparison.
Now shear and dry air are certainly an issue...
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7302
923. hydrus
11:20 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 906. SLU:
What's next in 2013? A category 5 hurricane with an exposed LLC?

What a horrible season. Nothing seems to get going this year.

You know what Slu.? I have always read and respected your posts.. This by far is the worst one I have ever read from you.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20536
922. SFLWeatherman
9:48 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4410
921. canyonboy
9:12 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 917. wxdude714:
I don't attack people,but people like to attack me. I don't quite understand how numbers and shapes appear around each tropical system this year followed by a subsequent t decline in convention and strength and not put two and two together and explore real research that clearly points to the US Govt having deployed a laser system either through aircraft drones or satellites to knock out tropical systems to protect life and property. Anyone can look at the Gibbs archives and clearly see that these numbers and shapes never use to be there. Talking to meteorologists about this is like screaming at a wall. As a side note the GFS has significant issues this season with diurnal nature of the atmosphere. Its been refelcting July and August type daytime heating instead of early October...it has no clue there's a blizzard coming over the northern plains....its probably too slow and too far eastward in its projections. As soon as the markets close Friday evening the real GFS is going to show up in the 18Z/00Z runs tomorrow.


Of course! With the government shutdown it stopped the lasers and voila! Karen formed.
Member Since: December 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 29
920. canyonboy
9:11 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 917. wxdude714:
I don't attack people,but people like to attack me. I don't quite understand how numbers and shapes appear around each tropical system this year followed by a subsequent t decline in convention and strength and not put two and two together and explore real research that clearly points to the US Govt having deployed a laser system either through aircraft drones or satellites to knock out tropical systems to protect life and property. Anyone can look at the Gibbs archives and clearly see that these numbers and shapes never use to be there. Talking to meteorologists about this is like screaming at a wall. As a side note the GFS has significant issues this season with diurnal nature of the atmosphere. Its been refelcting July and August type daytime heating instead of early October...it has no clue there's a blizzard coming over the northern plains....its probably too slow and too far eastward in its projections. As soon as the markets close Friday evening the real GFS is going to show up in the 18Z/00Z runs tomorrow.
Member Since: December 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 29
919. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9:08 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
nam hr 84 end

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
918. guygee
9:01 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 916. SouthDadeNative:
talk

Talk about political agenda, your a poster child for everything thats wrong with this blog, not to mention the country.
At least I am on a poster, lol. You are no one to anybody.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3141
917. wxdude714
8:58 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
I don't attack people,but people like to attack me. I don't quite understand how numbers and shapes appear around each tropical system this year followed by a subsequent t decline in convention and strength and not put two and two together and explore real research that clearly points to the US Govt having deployed a laser system either through aircraft drones or satellites to knock out tropical systems to protect life and property. Anyone can look at the Gibbs archives and clearly see that these numbers and shapes never use to be there. Talking to meteorologists about this is like screaming at a wall. As a side note the GFS has significant issues this season with diurnal nature of the atmosphere. Its been refelcting July and August type daytime heating instead of early October...it has no clue there's a blizzard coming over the northern plains....its probably too slow and too far eastward in its projections. As soon as the markets close Friday evening the real GFS is going to show up in the 18Z/00Z runs tomorrow.
Member Since: October 9, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 22
916. SouthDadeNative
8:53 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 908. guygee:
You must be illiterate. He just repeated the fact that the NOAA and NWS twitter feeds have over a quarter of a million followers. Stop it with your stupid political agenda on this blog and go home to RedState.
talk

Talk about political agenda, your a poster child for everything thats wrong with this blog, not to mention the country.
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 35
915. daddyjames
8:49 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 898. WunderAlertBot:
JeffMasters has created a new entry.


Just saying . . .
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
914. HurricaneAndre
8:49 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 913. HurricaneAndre:
Thy anticyclone is to it's south.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 19 Comments: 2564
913. HurricaneAndre
8:48 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 19 Comments: 2564
912. JNTenne
8:47 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 895. pottery:

The past tense of 'hit' ?

:):))
had hitten?
Member Since: May 21, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 566
911. VAbeachhurricanes
8:46 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Ughhh, cmon Karen lets get it together... build that anti-cyclone.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6145
910. SLU
8:40 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 907. 69Viking:


Excuse me but I live in the direct path of this storm as it is currently forecast so I have no problem with it not strengthening rapidly. I can't believe you're complaining, nobody should wish for a devastating Hurricane to hit somewhere just so they have a monster storm to track.


At no time did I "wish for a devastating Hurricane to hit somewhere" so that there would be a "monster storm to track". What I said is a fact. Storms are having difficulty pulling together this year leading to well below average levels of activity. That's why the ACE to date is only 23.4 units whereas the average for this date is 84 units.

Tropical cyclones are a way of life in this part of the world and hence if you're in the path of this storm, be safe.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4890
909. Tropicsweatherpr
8:34 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Adios to Jerry.


POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
500 PM AST THU OCT 03 2013

JERRY LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO QUALIFY AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND IS THEREFORE BEING DESIGNATED AS A REMNANT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 30 KT...
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE GENEROUS. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...AND VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 25 KT IN 48 HOURS. REGENERATION IS
UNLIKELY AND BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AFTER 48 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER...060/12. POST-TROPICAL JERRY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A
BROAD MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS PREDICTION AND
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON JERRY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 31.8N 38.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 04/0600Z 32.6N 36.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 04/1800Z 33.7N 34.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0600Z 34.8N 32.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1800Z 36.0N 30.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
908. guygee
8:33 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 905. sar2401:

Goodness me. No Facebook or Twitter updates at all??? Well, then, it's absolutely impossible for any of us to receive any information as this dangerous storm approaches. Wait...I don't have a Facebook account...or a Twitter account. No wonder I haven't had any idea what's been happening with the weather over the last 50 years.

Geez.....
You must be illiterate. He just repeated the fact that the NOAA and NWS twitter feeds have over a quarter of a million followers. Stop it with your stupid political agenda on this blog and go home to RedState.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3141
907. 69Viking
8:32 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 906. SLU:
What's next in 2013? A category 5 hurricane with an exposed LLC?

What a horrible season. Nothing seems to get going this year.



Excuse me but I live in the direct path of this storm as it is currently forecast so I have no problem with it not strengthening rapidly. I can't believe you're complaining, nobody should wish for a devastating Hurricane to hit somewhere just so they have a monster storm to track.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3016
906. SLU
8:28 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
What's next in 2013? A category 5 hurricane with an exposed LLC?

What a horrible season. Nothing seems to get going this year.

Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4890
905. sar2401
8:27 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Now I understand why the young'ens are jonesing


The National Weather Service continues to issue forecasts and warnings, but the primary NOAA and National Weather Service Twitter feeds, with over 250,000 followers, have stopped disseminating information. Not a single update has been posted on either feed since October 1.


Shutdown stopping flow of weather information as dangerous storms threaten nation

Goodness me. No Facebook or Twitter updates at all??? Well, then, it's absolutely impossible for any of us to receive any information as this dangerous storm approaches. Wait...I don't have a Facebook account...or a Twitter account. No wonder I haven't had any idea what's been happening with the weather over the last 50 years.

Geez.....
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13315
904. masonsnana
8:27 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 895. pottery:

The past tense of 'hit' ?

:):))


Lol!
Member Since: February 14, 2004 Posts: 2 Comments: 663
903. Civicane49
8:26 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 20:22Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 12L in 2013
Storm Name: Karen (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 20:05:51Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°13'N 88°28'W (23.2167N 88.4667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 433 miles (696 km) to the WSW (258°) from Key West, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,082m (10,112ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 54kts (~ 62.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NNE (15°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 125° at 45kts (From the SE at ~ 51.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NNE (15°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 999mb (29.50 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,440m (8,005ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,443m (8,015ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph) which was observed 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NNE (15°) from the flight level center at 20:00:26Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SONDE SPLASHED WITH 4 KNOTS
BANDING NORTH SEMICIRCLE
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
902. VAbeachhurricanes
8:26 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Air Force plane has a higher pressure, probably more accurate closer to the ground.

Time: 20:19:00Z
Coordinates: 23.2667N 88.4667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 959.2 mb (~ 28.33 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 360 meters (~ 1,181 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 999.4 mb (~ 29.51 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 170° at 1 knots (From the S at ~ 1.1 mph)
Air Temp: 23.4°C (~ 74.1°F)
Dew Pt: 22.1°C (~ 71.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 3 knots (~ 3.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 23 knots (~ 26.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6145
901. weathermanwannabe
8:26 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 886. CybrTeddy:


Yup, as noted by the definitive windshift.


Learned that one watching the Hunter show on WC. Looks like they found the coc "zero" mark.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8826
900. Patrap
8:26 PM GMT on October 03, 2013



Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 20:20Z
Date: October 3, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 12
Storm Name: Karen (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 3

Observation Number: 26

20:20:30Z 23.233N 88.533W 958.9 mb
(~ 28.32 inHg) 367 meters
(~ 1,204 feet) 999.9 mb
(~ 29.53 inHg) - From 329° at 11 knots
(From the NNW at ~ 12.6 mph) 23.5°C
(~ 74.3°F) 21.7°C
(~ 71.1°F) 11 knots
(~ 12.6 mph) 20 knots
(~ 23.0 mph) 3 mm/hr
(~ 0.12 in/hr) 20.0 knots (~ 23.0 mph)
181.8%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic
At 20:11:00Z (first observation), the observation was 408 miles (657 km) to the WSW (258°) from Key West, FL, USA.

At 20:20:30Z (last observation), the observation was 437 miles (702 km) to the WSW (258°) from Key West, FL, USA.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
899. Stormchaser2007
8:26 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
000
URNT12 KWBC 032022
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL122013
A. 03/20:05:51Z
B. 23 deg 13 min N
088 deg 28 min W
C. 700 mb 3082 m
D. 54 kt
E. 015 deg 22 nm
F. 125 deg 45 kt
G. 015 deg 22 nm
H. 999 mb
I. 14 C / 2440 m
J. 17 C / 2443 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 7
O. 1 / 1 nm
P. NOAA2 0412A KAREN OB 04
SONDE SPLASHED WITH 4 KNOTS
BANDING NORTH SEMICIRCLE

MAX FL WIND 45 KT 015/22 20:00:26Z
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
898. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
8:25 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
897. CybrTeddy
8:25 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 890. Stormchaser2007:
Karen would have easily been downgraded to 40-45 knots if we didn't have recon



Well that's why we have recon. First fix was 1001mb, second was 996.5mb, so we're seeing some measure of deepening occurring.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23619
896. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
8:25 PM GMT on October 03, 2013


hr 45 18z nam
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
895. pottery
8:24 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting Patrap:
They hot the COC nicely

The past tense of 'hit' ?

:):))
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24084
894. ChillinInTheKeys
8:24 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 874. Patrap:


Slingin' a nice gust front in your direction Pat.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 678
893. LargoFl
8:24 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
didnt realize that Tampa was indeed IN the far outer cone of probability for Karen...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37042
892. TropicalAnalystwx13
8:23 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
The 12z ECMWF and GFS nail South Dakota with roughly 2 feet of snow. The NAM gives over 6 feet (lol). Winter Storm Atlas is going to be historic. This is a big storm by winter's standards.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31535
891. daddyjames
8:23 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 875. pottery:
Anyone has conditions from western Cuba ?


Nothing much going on radar wise

Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
890. Stormchaser2007
8:23 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Karen would have easily been downgraded to 40-45 knots if we didn't have recon

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
889. scoobert
8:23 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
The way this season is going it will make a sharp left, then right...then left into Mexico! LOL
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 9
888. VAbeachhurricanes
8:23 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Time: 20:06:00Z
Coordinates: 23.2167N 88.4667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 751.9 mb (~ 22.20 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,472 meters (~ 8,110 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 996.5 mb (~ 29.43 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 240° at 6 knots (From the WSW at ~ 6.9 mph)
Air Temp: 16.9°C (~ 62.4°F)
Dew Pt: 13.1°C (~ 55.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 10 knots (~ 11.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 13 knots (~ 14.9 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (~ 0.08 in/hr)
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6145
887. Patrap
8:23 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
There are 2 Planes up, please use a ID if rolling HH info.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
886. CybrTeddy
8:22 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 881. pottery:

Would that be the COC then ??


Yup, as noted by the definitive windshift.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23619
885. Patrap
8:22 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
They hit the COC nicely
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
884. hurricanehanna
8:22 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
23.217N 88.467W 751.9 mb
(~ 22.20 inHg) 2,472 meters
(~ 8,110 feet) 996.5 mb
(~ 29.43 inHg) - From 240 at 6 knots
(From the WSW at ~ 6.9 mph)

Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3481
883. stormpetrol
8:22 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Time: 20:06:00Z
Coordinates: 23.2167N 88.4667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 751.9 mb (~ 22.20 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,472 meters (~ 8,110 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 996.5 mb (~ 29.43 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 240° at 6 knots (From the WSW at ~ 6.9 mph)
Air Temp: 16.9°C (~ 62.4°F)
Dew Pt: 13.1°C (~ 55.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 10 knots (~ 11.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 13 knots (~ 14.9 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (~ 0.08 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7694
882. canyonboy
8:22 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 778. Xulonn:
Um, surface water temps, subsurface water temps, heat content of volumes of water are all measured and known quantities. Meteorologists and climatologists know quite precisely that the water temps are, and what the heat content is. Can you imagine Dr. Masters saying "we think" the water temps are such and such in the GOM?

No guessing involved - water temps and heat content are measured precisely and stored in datasets.

It's the complex interaction of many, many variables that makes weather and tropical storm forecasting and predictions such a challenge. I don't even try - I just watch lots of people here flail about and then gloat when they get lucky - although some of you are pretty good at forecasting, and smart enough to say "I'm not sure" when the evidence doesn't support a strong position.


No doubt you know much more about the subject than I do about how accurate these measurements are. However, the fact remains that with warmer water one expects more hurricanes and with cooler water one expects fewer hurricanes.
Member Since: December 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 29
881. pottery
8:22 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Interesting.. the winds died off at the lowest pressure reading and picked up again as they moved away.

Would that be the COC then ??
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24084
880. CybrTeddy
8:21 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Interesting.. the winds died off at the lowest pressure reading and picked up again as they moved away. Lowest pressure was 996.5mb.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23619
879. hurricanehanna
8:20 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Karen is looking like a normal tropical system, as far as shape goes...not like some of the odd looking systems we have had so far....
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3481
878. nrtiwlnvragn
8:20 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Now I understand why the young'ens are jonesing


The National Weather Service continues to issue forecasts and warnings, but the primary NOAA and National Weather Service Twitter feeds, with over 250,000 followers, have stopped disseminating information. Not a single update has been posted on either feed since October 1.


Shutdown stopping flow of weather information as dangerous storms threaten nation
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10909
877. proroller
8:19 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 851. CybrTeddy:
Pressures down to 998mb.


Do you think it would be hurricane later today? Thanks!
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 27

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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