Tropical Storm Karen Forms in the Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on October 03, 2013

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Hurricane Watches are flying along the U.S. Gulf Coast as Tropical Storm Karen heads north-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Karen, the eleventh named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, formed about 8 am EDT Thursday in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. It's not often that one sees a new storm start out with 60 mph sustained winds, but that's what an Air Force hurricane hunter plane found this morning near 7:30 am EDT, when they sampled the northern portion of the storm. A ship located about 50 miles northeast of the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula measured sustained winds of 51 mph near the same time. Satellite loops show that Karen is a medium-sized storm with an area of very intense thunderstorms along its northern and eastern flanks. Wind shear has risen since Wednesday, and is now a moderately high 20 knots, thanks to strong upper-level winds out of the west-southwest. These strong winds are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the west side of Karen's center of circulation, by driving dry air that is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Western Gulf of Mexico into Karen's core. As a result, Karen has a lopsided comma-shape on satellite imagery. Karen has a strong upper-level outflow channel to its north that is helping ventilate the storm, though, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). Between 7 am and 9:30 am EDT the Hurricane Hunters made three passes though the center of Karen, and the central pressure stayed roughly constant at 1004 mb, so Karen is not undergoing much change.


Figure 1. Odds of receiving more than 4" of rain over a five-day period beginning at 2 am EDT Thursday October 3, 2013, as predicted by the experimental GFDL ensemble model.

Forecast for Karen
Wind shear will steadily increase as the storm heads north-northwest, and shear will reach a high 25 knots by Saturday morning as Karen closes in on the U.S. Gulf Coast, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. The atmosphere will grow drier as Karen moves into the Northern Gulf of Mexico, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making only slow intensification likely through Friday. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn Karen more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday evening and Saturday morning. The higher shear at that time should be able to induce weakening, and the 8 am EDT Thursday wind probability forecast from NHC gave a 28% chance Karen will be a hurricane at 2 am EDT Saturday, down from 44% on Friday afternoon. Most of the models predict landfall will occur along the western Florida Panhandle Saturday afternoon or evening. The usually reliable European model has Karen making landfall over Eastern Louisiana, though. If Karen does follow this more westerly path, the storm will be weaker, since there is more dry air and higher wind shear to the west. Since almost all of Karen's heavy thunderstorms will be displaced to the east by high wind shear, there will be relatively low rainfall totals of 1 - 3" to the immediate west of where the center makes landfall. Much higher rainfall totals of 4 - 8" can be expected to the east. To judge the possibilities of receiving tropical storm-force winds at your location, I recommend using the NHC wind probability forecast. The highest odds of tropical storm-force winds (45 - 55%) are along the coast from Buras, Louisiana, to Pensacola, Florida.

I'll have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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gee last frame looks like an eastward shift
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Quoting 113. Matt1989:

Yep it's fizzling. As is the story with every storm for the past 3 years it seems.
Quoting 106. Patrap:
Una tormentita para entretener todo el dia a los hurricanes fans.
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You local NWS Office will update the pops if needed.



not sure if we can handle responsible blogging my friend......

my answer would have to be.....dude...cat 5 in the making...besides strong winds....flooding rain...hunker down dude...hunker down :-)
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133439
Quoting 53. whitewabit:
To me it doesn't appear the front will be fast enough ..

img src="">

are you thinking a litte more westerly track / weaker storm?
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Hurricane Cindy, part 2??
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Quoting 115. fire635:
I understand that Karen is probably going to be a northern gulf coast landfall, but with the potential shear, why are my rain chances on the west coast of Florida (north of Tampa) only 30%. Seems odd to me


It's going to depend on the timing and wobbles; my local Tally forecast this morning also provided for a low chance, subject to change, depending on the track.

You local NWS Office will update the pops if needed.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10769
Karen up to 65mph.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24972

000
NOUS42 KNHC 021515
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT WED 02 OCTOBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z OCTOBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-123

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- GULF OF MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72 FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 42
A. 03/1800Z, 04/0000Z A. 03/2000Z
B. AFXXX 0312A CYCLONE B. NOAA2 0412A CYCLONE
C. 03/1600Z C. 03/1800Z
D. 23.3N 88.8W D. 23.4N 88.9W
E. 03/1730 TO 04/0000Z E. 03/2000Z TO 05/0000Z
F. SFC TO 15,000FT F. SFC TO 15,000FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 73 FLIGHT FOUR --NOAA 43
A. 04/0600Z, 1200Z A. 04/0800Z
B. AFXXX 0512A CYCLONE B. NOAA3 0612A CYCLONE
C. 04/0430Z C. 04/0600Z
D. 25.8N 89.3W D. 25.9N 89.3W
E. 04/0530Z TO 04/1200Z E. 04/0730Z TO 04/1130Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM IS STILL A THREAT. P-3 MISSIONS DEPARTING
AT 04/1800Z AND 05/0600Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP

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I think it's hit max, seems to me all satellites point to the same scenario we've got our usually system that can't get stacked. Look out at morning sky in Fl. clouds at different heights moving in opposite directions.
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TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL122013
1000 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

...KAREN A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 87.9W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NW OF CABO CATOCHE MEXICO
ABOUT 485 MI...775 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133439
I understand that Karen is probably going to be a northern gulf coast landfall, but with the potential shear, why are my rain chances on the west coast of Florida (north of Tampa) only 30%. Seems odd to me
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New Orleans, LA
8:54 AM CDT on October 03, 2013 (GMT -0500) Lon: 90.1° WLat: 30.0° N

Active Advisory: Coastal Flood Watch, Tropical Storm Watch (US Severe Weather)
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133439
Quoting 100. WxGeekVA:
I hope people understand that the COC is about to be exposed...


Yep it's fizzling. As is the story with every storm for the past 3 years it seems.
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Good morning all

Just a quick hello today due to time commitments.

Karen is still in its formative stages and has not been able to wrap the deep convection into its core. The center remains displaced to the West of the convection as was evident all of yesterday and this will slow down the organising and intensification process until the storm can overcome that hurdle.

Will see you all later. Have a nice day.
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Quoting 108. HurricaneAndre:
10:00 AM CDT Thu Oct 3
Location: 22.2°N 87.9°W
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph


well they didn't lower it lol
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3804
alrighty then......let's tally the score here....season dead?...nope.......97 l dead?.......nope...now...let's get the little woman up and dressed for that cat 5 party in tampa....
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Current map features would not indicate anything as far east as Big Bend. This will be a northern coast landfall. Yes, timing will be the key. Slower front, landfall more westerly. Faster front, more towards the Panhandle.




Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
10:00 AM CDT Thu Oct 3
Location: 22.2°N 87.9°W
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
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107. 7544
looks ms bound
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133439
Quoting 101. LargoFl:
Very moist.
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Quoting 100. WxGeekVA:
I hope people understand that the COC is about to be exposed...



I don't doubt when it does the cynicalism will return on here in full force.

I don't agree with the idea of this becoming a hurricane, personally. Certainly won't be a US hurricane landfall.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24972
Thank You Dr. Very pleased that the storm will be kept in check due the relevant factors and that we are not looking at a major hurricane. Either way, most of the effects will be on the East side so the Florida Gulf coast, and all other potential areas from La Eastward, are out of business for the weekend in terms of the normal coastal activities.

For those in the cone, just keep an eye on the Official NHC advisories, their 3-Day track, and your local authorities in terms of localized impacts including storm surge and flooding issues.

Stay safe and prepare accordingly.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10769


Cancun now

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I hope people understand that the COC is about to be exposed...

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Tropical Storm KAREN Public Advisory

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

US Watch/Warning

000
WTNT32 KNHC 031304
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
800 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

...TROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM CDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 87.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NW OF CABO CATOCHE MEXICO
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO
INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. THIS WATCH DOES NOT INCLUDE METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS...LAKE MAUREPAS...OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO
MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN


A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM CDT...1300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133439
Quoting 85. lobdelse81:
The question I have is how on earth did hurricanes like Eloise, Elena, and Fredric intensify so rapidly in the gulf, being in a similar location, but even weaker than Karen (depressions or low-end TS at the time of gulf entry)?


Today we have climate geoengineering to try to dampen them.
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GOM 84 Hour Wave Forecast (using WW3) Model
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133439
Quoting 85. lobdelse81:
The question I have is how on earth did hurricanes like Eloise, Elena, and Fredric intensify so rapidly in the gulf, being in a similar location, but even weaker than Karen (depressions or low-end TS at the time of gulf entry)?

The only reason why they did was because the GOM waters where warmer and Deeper, then of course they were in September...

Taco :o)
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Bottom line – be ready if you live along the Gulf Coast from Mississippi to the Big Bend area of Florida. Keep an eye on this system – there is potential for it to do something few people expected. Odds are, it won’t but odds can change, they often do otherwise nothing would ever happen.
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Quoting 90. YUCATANCHICXULUB:


Cozumel


Great pic. Thanks for sharing.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
Elena Hit first week of Sept 85, I was in Long Beach Miss, as per the other 2, I haven't looked.

But Oct 3 is Never Sept 1 SST wise in the GOM.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133439
Quoting 56. hophead:
Does anyone have a map of the loop current in the gulf and the relative temperatures? I seem to recall that when storms pass over those areas of elevated temperatures that there is the potential for intensification, similar to Sandy and the current that runs along hte east coast up from Fla.


Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
Cloud tops warming significantly. This will never make it to even a 65mph storm. Fizzle storm.
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Cozumel
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Latest frames show an eye popping in and out. Karen is or very near hurricane strength.
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That thing gonna blow into Florida
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Shear, Dry Air and the Beta Effect keeping it N by Nw seems still.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133439
Sorry Wonder Scott, had to put you on ignore. Just cannot read another comment with "like I said ________ (fill in the blank). So you feel the overwhelming need for constant validation that you are always correct.
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The question I have is how on earth did hurricanes like Eloise, Elena, and Fredric intensify so rapidly in the gulf, being in a similar location, but even weaker than Karen (depressions or low-end TS at the time of gulf entry)?
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Quoting 39. longislander102:
One thing for sure, we know landfall won't be anywhere near Jim Cantore shows up :)


Except one day it will.
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Quoting 74. CybrTeddy:
Looks like it wants to trade that deep-convection, blob look away for a east-sided, spiral banding type structure.


There's a good struggle going on in that respect I believe too.

One will win,



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133439
Shortwave and Water Vapor are your best bets to see where troughs are located.



And the flow over Texas already seems to be from Southwest to Northeast. So you're probably going to have a series of shortwaves, followed by a longwave that will kick this off to the Northeast once and for all.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 9237
Quoting 67. Tazmanian:
Karen looks more like a STS right now


Karen looks absolutely nothing like a STS.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24972
Pat you said color analyst are you taking Hokies job lol.I still say this will be a hybrid at landfall I have repeatedly mentioned Juan without the loops.
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Wowzers! The GOM churned one up. Hurricane time! Get ready gulf coast.
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Quoting 74. CybrTeddy:
Looks like it wants to trade that deep-convection, blob look away for a east-sided, spiral banding type structure.


Classic TS.
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The blog issure to be on fire soon...

Thankfully we don't have optimum strengthening conditions.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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